Rockies (Fogg) at Mets (Pelfrey) -1.5 runs (+110): Josh Fogg has pitched poorly this year (6.61 ERA, 1.84 WHIP), and the following Mets have pounded him in the past: Shawn Green (10-for-31, 5 2B), Moises Alou (10-for-27, 1 HR), Paul Lo Duca (10-for-21, 2 2B), Carlos Beltran (8-for-19, 1 3B), Carlos Delgado (6-for-12), and Jose Valentin (3-for-7, 1 HR). Opposing starter Mike Pelfrey hasn't pitched consistently well this year (10.2 IP, 6 ER, 12 H, 6 BB, 5 K). However, he has immense potential, and he should be serviceable against a Rockies' offense that hasn't been able to hit much this season. The Rockies rank last in the National League in slugging percentage and 12th in runs scored. Meanwhile, the Mets are first in slugging percentage and second in runs scored.
Brewers (Sheets) +110 at Cubs (Lilly): After a good opening-day start, Ben Sheets gave up 12 earned runs over his next two starts. But he rebounded with a solid outing against the Astros last week, and his 1.15 WHIP for the season shows that it's tough for opposing hitters to reach base against him. Among Cubs' hitters, only Derrek Lee has had consistent success (17-for-46, 2 2Bs, 7 HR). Aramis Ramirez (12-for-55), Jacque Jones (2-for-13), and Cesar Izturis (2-for-24) have all struggled against the Brewers' ace. Although Cubs' starter Ted Lilly has been one of their lone bright spots this year (26 IP, 2.42 ERA, 0.77 WHIP), he's due for a bad outing. Last year, Lilly had a 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 181.2 IP, and I expect his numbers to be closer to that by the end of this season, with a moderate improvement due to the switch to the pitcher-friendly NL. Also, the Brewers have won four straight games, so it'll be hard for the Cubs, who are losers of three straight, to break through today.
Red Sox (Schilling) -130 at Orioles (Cabrera): Against Curt Schilling, the only Orioles with success are Aubrey Huff (11-for-43, 5 2B, 1 HR), Chris Gomez (10-for-33, 1 HR), and Miguel Tejada (7-for-20, 3 2B). Everyone else in their lineup has struggled to hit him. Schilling should put an end to the Red Sox' modest two-game losing streak today, as he's been good this year: 26 IP, 11 ER, 24 H, 5 BB, 20 K. Meanwhile, opposing starter Daniel Cabrera has shown improvement with his control: 26.3 IP, 12 ER, 28 H, 7 BB, 26 K. Last year, he walked 104 batters in 148 innings, so this season's decline in walks indicates that he's finally learning to pitch. But the fact is that Cabrera is still learning, and he's getting hit more than in the past as a result of his desire to avoid walks. The Red Sox boast dangerous hitters who make great contact on pitches that get too much of the strike zone, so I expect Cabrera to have a tough time tonight. And Schilling should hold the Orioles to few enough runs for the Red Sox to grind out a victory.
Braves (Hudson) -150 at Marlins (Olsen): Tim Hudson has been terrific this season: 29 IP, 2 ER, 16 H, 11 BB, 19 K. He beat the Marlins on April 15, allowing six hits and a run in seven innings. This is actually a rematch of that game, as Scott Olsen got ####ed up for five runs on six hits in just 2.2 innings. Olsen's been struglging with his control this year: 18 IP, 15 ER, 22 H, 15 BB, 10 K. Since he hasn't shown any signs of coming out of his funk, the Braves are a good play today.
Blue Jays (Burnett) at Yankees (Pettitte) -1.5 runs (-110): Andy Pettitte has been a warrior this year, as he's started four games and pitched in relief twice in order to save an overworked Yankees' bullpen. Pettitte's put up solid numbers in his outings (25.3 IP, 5 ER, 24 H, 9 BB, 13 K), and he'll be looking to break the Yankees' five-game losing streak today. Meanwhile, A.J. Burnett has been inconsistent this year (21 IP, 13 ER, 18 H, 13 BB, 14 K), which doesn't bode well against the Yankees' powerful lineup. Both teams have hit the opposing starter in the past, but I expect Pettitte to get the better of this matchup today in the pressure-filled environs of Yankee Stadium.
Devil Rays (Jackson) at Angels (Lackey) -1.5 runs (-120): The Los Angeles Angels (10-10) open up a two-game set tonight at home against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (9-10). Although their records are almost identical, the Angels are superb at home (9-3). The Halos will give the ball to their ace, John Lackey (2-2, 2.55 ERA), who revels in chewing up the Devil Rays and spitting them out. The tall Texan is 6'1" with a 2.61 ERA against Tampa Bay. Tonight's starter for the D-Rays is the unpredictable Edwin Jackson (0-2, 6.75 ERA). Although Jackson was once considered a top pitching prospect, he's fallen victim to a lack of command. Tonight, he faces a lineup that will make you pay dearly for any mistakes. The Angels' Vladimir Guerrero has been knocking the cover off the ball this past week to the tune of nine hits in his last 18 AB.
Tigers (Durbin) at White Sox (Danks) Over 10.5 runs: To say the Tigers' Chad Durbin (0-1, 10.54 ERA) has been bad this year would be a gross understatement. Durbin has yet to make it out of the 5th inning in each of his 3 starts and has allowed a whopping 20 hits in just under 14 innings. Even more frightening than Durbin's numbers this year are his career numbers against the White Sox (1-6, 10.26 ERA). The White Sox' John Danks (0-2, 5.06 ERA) has been marginally better than Durbin this year, but couldn't find his way out of the fourth inning last Friday when he faced Detroit. In that contest, Danks allowed six hits and four runs in 4.2 innings. Both the Tigers and the White Sox have some huge bats (Paul Konerko, Magglio Ordonez, et al.) that will likely knock these two struggling pitchers out before the 5th inning. Expect a slugfest tonight at US Cellular Field.
NBA (118 - 98)
Wizards at Cavs -11.5: Without their top scorer (Gilbert Arenas) and most productive player (Caron Butler), the Wizards are pretty much dead on arrival in this series. 11.5 points is a lot, but the Wizards' 36.5 FG% in Game 1 wasn't a fluke, as they just don't have anyone who can consistently put the ball in the hoop against a quality team.
Nuggets (+8.5) at Spurs: The Nuggets are too good to be getting this many points. Although the Spurs should bounceback in Game 2 to even the series, this game's going to be relatively close, unless the Nuggets just have an awful shooting night. Nene and Marcus Camby appear capable of causing problems for the Spurs' interior game, as the Spurs were forced into too many jumpshots in Game 1, and they only got to the free-throw line ten times. Meanwhile, the Nuggets took the ball to the rim, and they were rewarded with 25 free-throw attempts.
Warriors at Mavs (-9): In Game 1, the Mavs shot only 35%, compared to the Warriors 42%. The Warriors aren't known for their defense, so the Mavs' poor-shooting night appears to be a bit of a fluke. For the season, the Mavs shot 46.2%, and they should come close to that tonight. Also, the Mavs will be deadset on avenging the embarrassing Game 1 loss, so this one should be a blowout.
Mariners (Hernandez) +160 at Red Sox (Daisuke): In what will surely be the most-watched game of the young 2007 season, the Mariners send 21-year-old ace Felix Hernandez to the mound against Japanese pitching dynamo Daisuke Matsuzaka. From an offensive standpoint, Boston is the clear favorite here. However, this game has the makings of a top-notch pitching duel. Hernandez was exceptional in his first start of the year. Facing Oakland, he struck out 12 in eight innings and limited the A's to only three hits on his way to an easy win. Daisuke also had a stellar debut as he mowed down the Royals, giving up only six hits and one run while fanning ten batters in seven strong innings en route to a win. There's an added element of intrigue to this game, as it will pair Japan's two most-renowned exports, Ichiro Suzuki and Daisuke. Yesterday, Ichiro cryptically told the Seattle Times, "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul. I plan to face him with the zeal of a challenger." Playing in a contract year, it sounds like Ichiro is ready for battle. There is certainly value in the Mariners today, as this should be a low-scoring affair that either team could win.
Tigers (Verlander) -130 at Orioles (Loewen): Today's Tigers-Orioles rubber-game features two of the most heralded young pitchers in the American League. Justin Verlander took a no-decision in his season debut vs. Kansas City, as he was the victim of a lack of run support. Today, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year faces an Orioles' lineup that he dominated last season. In 31 at-bats against Verlander, the Orioles managed only one extra-base-hit, two RBIs, and no longballs. The Orioles best hitter, Miguel Tejada, is off to a terrible start this year, going 8-for-32 with only three RBIs. The Tigers will be facing Adam Loewen for the first time. Although they haven't done well as a team vs. left-handed pitchers so far this year, they did manage an RBI every 7.5 ABs last year against southpaws. If they can continue that trend today, they should score enough runs to stifle the offensively-challenged Orioles.
Yankees (Mussina) -150 at Twins (Ortiz): Even though Mike Mussina had a rough outing against Baltimore on Friday, he should bounce back against the Twins's hitters, who have a .290 OBP in 175 plate appearances against him. In 2006, Mussina posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 197.1 IP, as he rebounded from two subpar years (relative to Mussina standards). Mussina's 5/1 K/BB ratio from 2006 shows that he's still an excellent big-league pitcher. On the other hand, Ramon Ortiz struggled last year, as he had a 5.58 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 190.2 IP in the pitcher-friendly National League. As a result, the vaunted Yankees' lineup will be an enormous challenge. In 232 plate appearances against Ortiz, they've posted the following stats: .322 BA, .432 OBP, .583 SLG.
NBA (112 - 91)
Nuggets (+1) at Jazz: Something's not right with Jazz PG Deron Williams, and that could be the reason for their recent struggles. Williams has been playing through a nagging groin injury, and the Jazz aren't the same offensive team when he's not 100%. The Jazz are 1-14 ATS in their last 15 games, so they're just an awful bet right now. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have won six straight games (4-2 ATS), and they appear to be on a roll as the playoffs approach. The Nuggets are 22-14-1 ATS on the road, while the Jazz are 16-18-3 ATS at home. Also, in the last five games, the Nuggets have held opponents to a 42.2 FG%. In stark contrast, the Jazz have allowed a whopping 49.5 FG% over that same span.
Wizards at Heat (-9.5): Shaquille O'Neal sat out last night's contest due to the death of his paternal grandfather, but he plans to return tonight. Now that Dwayne Wade's had a few games under his belt, the Heat will be close to full strength against an opponent that's missing it's two best players (Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler). The Wizards clinched a playoff spot last night, so they could suffer a letdown against a Heat team that's looking to get back on track after suffering two straight losses to the Charlotte Bobcats.
Grizzlies at Warriors - Under 223: In the four games since injuries to Mike Miller and Damon Stoudamire, the Grizzlies have scored 87, 88, 96, and 93 points. These point totals came against relatively weak defensive teams (Suns, Lakers, Blazers, and Sonics). Although the Warriors have scored 100+ points in four of their last five games, the Grizzlies' current offensive ineptitude should prevent the total from reaching 223 points. You have to remember that when totals are set this high, you need a group effort to reach it.
Wizards (-3.5) at Bucks: The Bucks are 1-4 ATS without Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva in the lineup, and they're 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Meanwhile, the Wizards are now at full strength with Caron Butler back in the lineup, and they nearly beat a good Raptors squad on Friday night before losing in overtime.
Cavs (-7) at Celtics. The Cavs are only 6-12-1 ATS on the second night of back-to-backs, but the Celtics are in a worse situation, as Paul Pierce's lingering elbow injury could force him to miss the rest of the season. The Celtics are just 11-24-1 ATS at home, while the Cavs are a respectable 19-16 ATS on the road. Moreover, this game has playoff implications for the Cavs, while the Celtics would be better off losing the rest of their games in order to have a chance at landing Greg Oden or Kevin Durant.
Bobcats at Raptors (-7): In their last five games, the Raptors have shot a 47.4 FG%, while allowing a 39.8 FG%. They've also outrebounded opponents by 5.6 rpg. Plus, the Raptors are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games, and they're 22-13-1 ATS at home this season. Meanwhile, the Bobcats have also been playing well ATS in their last ten games (7-2-1), and they've won both games since Emeka Okafor's return from injury. However, these wins came at home against the Hawks and Bucks. Even though the Bobcats have been improving as the year progressed, a superior Raptors team that plays well at home should be able to cover this spread.
Spurs (-8.5) at Pacers: The Pacers have lost their last four games SU and ATS, and they're just 16-23-1 ATS following a loss. Also, Jermaine O'Neal is doubtful for tonight's game, and the Pacers struggle mightily without their main offensive weapon. On the other hand, the Spurs have won six straight games SU (4-2 ATS), and they're 21-16 ATS on the road this season. Also, they've posted excellent efficiency numbers in the last five games: 50.7 FG%, while allowing a 41.5 FG%.
Nuggets (-4) at Sonics: The Sonics have won three straight games SU and ATS, but two of these wins came against the hapless Timberwolves and Grizzlies. The other win came at Denver (100-97), so the Nuggets will be trying to return the favor tonight. The Nuggets have lost five of their last six games SU (3-3 ATS), and they've allowed a 52.4 FG% in their last five games. As a result, they should be focussed on remedying their defensive woes tonight, and that shouldn't be a foreboding task against a Sonics team that's missing its best offensive player (Ray Allen).
Raptors (-3) at Celtics: The Celtics are 3-7 SU in their last ten games (5-5 ATS), but they've lost three in a row SU and ATS. Also, they've shot a paltry 42.1 FG% while allowing a 48.3 FG% in their last five games. Most importantly, the Celtics are an awful 9-24 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Raptors have been shooting well in their last five games (46.7 FG%), and they've allowed only a 43.9 FG%. Also, they're 4-2 SU and ATS in their last six games, and they've posted a 19-15 ATS mark on the road this season.
Wizards at Jazz (-7.5) - Over 213: The Wizards have lost three of their last four games SU and ATS, as they've continued to struggle with Caron Butler out. Even though the Jazz have lost seven straight games ATS, they beat the Grizzlies by ten points on Saturday night, nearly covering the 11-point spread. The Jazz' recent losing streak has caused them to lay fewer points, which creates some value, as the streak was mostly the result of a cold shooting stretch. Also, the point total should go over 213 tonight. The Wizards have scored 100+ points in six of their last seven games, and they've allowed 100+ points in their last five games. Moreover, the Wizards have allowed a 47.8 FG% over that time span, and the Jazz showed on Saturday night that they can expose a poor defense. The total has gone over in six of the last seven Wizards' games. Even though the Jazz had played under the total for seven straight games until they combined with the Grizzlies to score 226 points, the Jazz should continue their offensive outburst tonight because of the Wizards' weak defense.
Spurs (-4.5) at Warriors: The Spurs won 120-79 at Seattle last night, and the blowout afforded them an opportunity to rest their starters. Tim Duncan led the team in minutes with 29, as no one played over 30 minutes. Meanwhile, the Warriors are coming off a close loss to the Lakers in which all of the starters played over 31 minutes. Monta Ellis led the team with 41 minutes off the bench, and Andris Biedrins also logged over 40 minutes. Although the Warriors are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games with Baron Davis in the lineup, they've been playing poor defense in their last five games (46.4 FG% allowed). On the other hand, the Spurs have been playing great defense over that time period (42.9 FG% allowed), so the Warriors could have trouble scoring tonight. Also, the Warriors are just 7-12 ATS when playing on the second night of a back-to-back.
N.C. State (+240) at West Virginia: N.C. State has won five of their last six games, and they've beaten quality opponents away from home: Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Drexel. Their only loss during this stretch came against North Carolina in the ACC Championship game, but N.C. State was competitive (80-89). Even though N.C. State played poorly in the middle of the season, they still have very good efficiency numbers (49.5 FG% while allowing opponents a 43.9 FG%). On the other hand, West Virginia shoots just 45.6%, while allowing opponents to shoot 44.3%. The Mountaineers depend on the three-point shot, so if their shooters are having an off night, N.C. State has a great chance of winning. Also, West Virginia had an easy road to this game, as they beat Delaware State and UMass. And their recent losses have come against teams that made the real Tournament: Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech. N.C. State was on par with these teams at the end of the season, so West Virginia's going to have trouble with them tonight, especially if N.C. State head coach Sidney Lowe dons the Magic Red Coat.
NBA (76 - 65)
Nuggets (-1) at Nets: The Nuggets are 15-12-1 ATS on the road, and they' won four straight games (SU and ATS), including a 131-107 stomping of the Suns on Saturday night. Although the Nets have fared well lately (3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games), they had five straight losses SU and ATS before that. And their latest three wins have come against mediocre teams: Grizzlies, Hornets, and Clippers.
Cavs (-7) at Bobcats: The Cavs are one of the hottest teams in the NBA, as they've posted eight straight wins SU and ten straight wins ATS. They're 17-14-1 ATS on the road, and they've won their last four road games ATS. The secret to the Cavs' success might be defense, as they've held opponents to a 42.1 FG% in the last five games. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are just 2-10 SU in their last 12 games (6-6 ATS). They're 15-18 ATS at home this season, and they've displayed terrible defense in their last five games (49.9 FG% allowed). That's going to continue as long as Emeka Okafor is sidelined with an injury.
Mavs (-8.5) at Knicks: The Mavs have lost their last four games ATS, and that hadn't happened since the first four games of the season. Avery Johnson can't be pleased with their recent inconsistent performances, so the Mavs should come out with a lot of intensity tonight. Plus, they're a good road team (16-12-2 ATS). The Knicks are still missing their best rebounder, David Lee, and that will hurt them against one of the best rebounding teams in the league. Also, the Knicks are just 9-20 ATS when coming off of a win, while the Mavs are 30-20-3 after a win (the Mavs won their last game SU despite losing ATS).
Clippers at Bulls (-8): The Clippers have lost six of seven SU (3-4 ATS), and they're just 12-20-1 ATS on the road. Also, Sam Cassell is questionable tonight, and that'll hurt their offensive rhythm, as he's the only true point guard on the Clippers' roster. On the other hand, the Bulls are 20-13 ATS at home, and they've gone 10-4 SU since the All-Star Break (9-5 ATS).
Warriors at Jazz (-7.5): The Warriors have won six of their last seven games SU and seven of their last eight ATS. But they're just 13-20-1 ATS on the road. Meanwhile, the Jazz are coming off of a terrible road trip in which they went 0-4 SU and ATS. This recent slide could be explained by the fact that the Jazz haven't been shooting the ball well lately (42.4 FG% in their past five games). With an excellent point guard in Deron Williams, the Jazz have no need to worry, as the shooting percentage will even out over the next few games. Also, the Jazz are a good home team (16-13-3 ATS). This line's a good one to take, as the Jazz would've been favored by 10 or more if the game had been played a week ago. Instead, the Jazz' recent woes, combined with the Warriors' recent success, probably reduced the point spread by three points.
Pacers at Rockets - Over 192: The Pacers have played over the total in four of their last five games. They've also scored 113 and 96 points in the two games since Jermaine O'Neal's return from injury. Also, defense isn't one of the Pacers' strong suits, as the mid-season trade created a bit of a confused mess on that end of the floor. They've allowed 100 or more points in five of their last ten games, and they've held opponents under 90 points in only two of those ten games. The Rockets are likely to become the sixth opponent in the last 11 games to score over 100 on the Pacers, as they've eclipsed the century mark in six of their last seven games. The Rockets have also scored 110 or more points in four of their last seven games. This isn't the slow-down Rockets team of old, as Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady shoot whenever there's an open look, which point guard Rafer Alston tends to quickly create with his penetrating drives. Because the Rockets are shooting the ball with less time elapsed on the shot clock, there're more possessions in each game; thus, opponents score more than usual. In fact, Rockets' opponents have scored 90 or more points in five of the past seven games. And the Rockets have played over the total in six of those games. If the Pacers score 85 points tonight, the suddenly high-octane Rockets are likely to score enough to put the total over 192.
Wizards (-3.5) at Blazers: The Blazers are just 2-8 SU in their last ten games (4-6 ATS), and they'll have a tough time tonight with Zach Randolph on bereavement leave. Randolph averages 23.5 ppg and 10.1 rpg, so it'll be hard to win with his abilities missing from the lineup. Meanwhile, the Wizards have won three straight games ATS.
Knicks at Raptors (-6.5): The Raptors have won six of their last seven games against the Knicks SU and ATS. Also, the Raptors are on a three-game winning streak, and even though they're only 1-2 ATS during this stretch, they looked great in winning by 15 on the road against the Bucks on Monday. For the season, the Raptors are 18-12-1 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Knicks are an average road team (16-16 ATS), and with David Lee still out, they'll struggle to contain Chris Bosh. Also, the Knicks are just 9-19 ATS when they won their previous game.
Wizards (-3.5) at Pacers: The Wizards have lost three straight games SU, but they won ATS on Sunday at Miami. All three losses have been close (97-100 at Hawks, 89-90 vs. Knicks, and 104-106 at Heat). Caron Butler is a game-time decision, but that's not enough to keep me from recommending the Wizards, as the Pacers will likely be playing another game without Jermaine O'Neal. Also, the Pacers are in the midst of a ten-game losing streak (2-8 ATS), and they're just 6-10 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back.
Jazz (-4) at Magic: In their last ten games, the Jazz are 7-2-1 ATS, and they're 17-13-1 ATS on the road this season. Even though they're playing on the second night of a back-to-back, the Magic could be just as tired, as they're playing their third game in four nights. The Magic have been downright awful lately, going 2-8 SU (3-7 ATS) in their last ten games. They're also just 13-18-1 ATS at home.
Clippers at Rockets (-11): The Clippers have lost four straight games (1-3 ATS), and they're playing on the second night of a back-to-back. They're just 10-19-1 ATS on the road, and they've gone 12-20-1 ATS after losing their previous game. Even though the Rockets haven't played well at home (13-18-1 ATS), they won three straight games SU and ATS before losing to the Suns on Monday. The Rockets are 17-7 ATS coming off of a loss, and they're 18-11-1 ATS when playing with one day of rest between games. A parlay with the under (180) could be a good bet here, as the Rockets should score around 95 points, and if they cover, then the Clippers will score 83 points or less.
Pistons (-4.5) at Blazers: The Pistons are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games, and they're 19-12 ATS on the road. Both the Blazers and Pistons are playing on the second night of back-to-backs, but the Pistons actually had less travel time, as they went from Seattle to Portland, while the Blazers travelled from Denver to Portland. The Blazers have lost five of their last seven games SU (3-4 ATS). Also, the Pistons will be trying to avenge a home loss that occurred against the Blazers in early December.
North Carolina State (+15.5) vs. North Carolina - Over 145.5: I'm a converted believer in the magic powers of Sidney Lowe's Big Red Coat. Ever since he started wearing it, the Wolfpack has won, including three straight upsets in this ACC Tournament. N.C. State split games with North Carolina this year, as the Wolfpack won, 83-79, at home on February 3, while North Carolina returned the favor with an 83-64 blowout on February 21. Even though N.C. State's record of 18-14 isn't pretty, they've been a good team with point guard Engin Atsur back from an injury that kept him out of most of the December and January games. Since January 31, the Wolfpack are 9-4 ATS with Atsur in the lineup. N.C. State needs a win today to earn an NCAA Tournament berth, and the game just doesn't hold as much importance for a North Carolina squad that's destined for a #2 seed regardless of the outcome. The over's a good bet in this one, too, as the Wolfpack have scored 72, 79, and 85 points in their last three games, while North Carolina's scored 71, 73, and 86 points. Also, the winning team has scored over 80 points when these teams have met this year. If N.C. State covers, and the winning team has 80 or more points, the over will definitely hit. That's why a parlay might not be a bad idea. I have trouble seeing N.C. State covering with the total going under.
Texas (+7) vs. Kansas - Over 144: The Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games, including a cover against Kansas on March 3 when Texas barely lost, 86-90. Meanwhile, Kansas is just 1-3 ATS in their last four games, and they'll get a #1 seed regardless of the outcome in this game. Actually, the committee might not even consider the result, as the selections will be complete prior to the end of the game. As a result, the Longhorns' desire for revenge could make the difference in the outcome of this game. Also, both teams are scoring machines, with the Longhorns playing very little defense, so the over's a good play. The teams scored 176 points the last time they met, and there's no reason to think that this one won't be played at the same tempo.
NBA (58 - 49)
Pistons (-3) at Clippers - Under 174.5: The Pistons have beaten the spread in their last four meetings against the Clippers, and they've won the last eight SU (6-2 ATS). They're also 17-12 ATS on the road this season, and that should continue today despite the absence of Rasheed Wallace due to a suspension for reaching 16 technical fouls. Meanwhile, the Clippers are struggling to consistently score without their two point guards (Shaun Livingtson and Sam Cassell), and they're just 15-16-1 ATS at home. The under's a good bet here because the Clippers have played under the total in their last five games, and they've scored less than 90 points in four of those. Also, their opponent hasn't scored over 100 points in any of the last five games. Likewise, the Pistons haven't cracked 100 points in their last seven games.
Sonics at Raptors (-5.5): Point guard Luke Ridnour is still out for the Sonics, who have gone 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games. Teams struggle to consistently generate offense when their point guard is out, and this line doesn't seem to reflect this severe handicap for the Sonics. For the Raptors, guard Anthony Parker will be returning from an injury, and that's good news as the Raptors were just 1-4 ATS in his absence. The Raptors are 18-11-1 ATS at home, and they should return to their winning ways today against a mediocre Sonics club.
Wizards at Heat (-4.5): The Wizards are just 4-11 ATS in the second night of back-to-backs, and they're 2-8 ATS in their last ten games. On the other hand, the Heat are 18-11-1 ATS at home, and they've won five straight games ATS. They've also been playing well for an extended period of time, as they've won 16 of their last 21 games ATS. The Wizards are an overrated, inefficient team, as they allow a higher opponents' FG% (46.8%) than they shoot (45%).
Bulls (-5.5) at Celtics: The Bulls have gone 8-2 ATS in their last ten games, and they're 4-1 ATS on the road since the All-Star Break. They've also won their last six games SU and ATS against the Celtics, who are 8-21-1 ATS at home this season. The Bulls should be favored by more points, but the Celtics' 5-1 record (SU and ATS) in their last six games has some bettors backing them.
Magic at Rockets (-8): The Magic have been playing poorly lately, as they've gone 2-8 SU in their last ten games (3-7 ATS). On the other hand, the Rockets have looked great with Yao Ming slowly reacclimating himself to the NBA, winning by 21 points against the Nets on Friday and 31 points at Boston on Wednesday. Also, the Rockets are 17-11-1 ATS when playing with one day of rest between games.
Mavs (-6) at Lakers: The Mavs have won 16 straight games, and they're 8-4 ATS in their last twelve. Also, they've posted a 15-10-2 record ATS on the road. When the Mavs are favored by between four and 8.5 points, they're 15-5 ATS this season. Meanwhile, the Lakers are still trying to get healthy, as their current casualty list includes Ronny Turiaf, Luke Walton, and Lamar Odom. They'll have a difficult time competing with the Mavs for rebounds with those three big men sitting this one out. Also, the Lakers have lost their last five games SU (1-4 ATS), and facing the NBA's best team won't be the antidote for their woes.
Warriors (+1) at Blazers: This one's pretty simple: the Warriors are 3-0 SU and ATS since point guard Baron Davis returned from injury. Meanwhile, the Blazers have lost four of their last five SU (2-3 ATS).
Boston College (+11) vs. North Carolina: North Carolina won a close game, 77-72, at Boston College this year, so BC knows they can play with the Tar Heels, and they'll want a little revenge. Boston College only shot 5-18 (27.8%) from beyond the arc in that contest, so if they are closer to their normal percentage, they have a great shot at upsetting North Carolina. Neither team has been good ATS lately (1-4-1 for Boston College, compared to 2-5 for North Carolina), but I still like the double-digit points in a game that might mean more to Boston College.
Purdue (+7) vs. Ohio State: Purdue has won four in a row SU, and eight of their last nine ATS. They're still on the bubble, so a win today would secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Also, Purdue knows that they can play with the Buckeyes, as they lost by seven points at Ohio State on February 10. Although Ohio State's won 15 straight games, they're just 3-5 ATS in their last eight.
Kansas State (+10) vs. Kansas: Kansas State is a terrific 18-9 ATS this year (10-6 ATS away from home). They dominated Texas Tech yesterday with smothering defense, as they held the Red Raiders to a 32.1 FG%. Kansas State will be looking to beat their chief rival after losing to Kansas twice already this year (by nine points at Kansas State on February 19, and by 27 points at Kansas on February 7). Meanwhile, Kansas is on a roll, winning nine straight games (7-2 ATS). As a result of that streak, Kansas is assured of a #1 seed, so this game means a lot more to a Kansas State squad that's still on the bubble. A win guarantees Kansas State a spot in the Big Dance.
North Carolina State vs. Virginia Tech (-7.5): N.C. State will be playing for the third day in a row, and all five starters logged heavy minutes in the wins against Duke and Virginia. Prior to this tournament, N.C. State had lost six of eight SU (4-4 ATS), so the fatigued Wolfpack should fall back to earth against Virginia Tech's aggressive team defense. Virginia Tech has played well against ACC opponents (11-6), and they're coming off of an easy win over Wake Forest. Also, this is a revenge scenario for Virginia Tech, who lost by double digits to N.C. State twice this year (56-81 at N.C. State, and 59-70 at Virginia Tech). Virginia Tech's better than that, and coach Seth Greenberg will let them know it.
Oklahoma State vs. Texas (-2) - First Half Line: Texas is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games, but the Longhorns came out flat yesterday against Baylor. They'll make sure that they're fired up today, which should lead to a great first half. But Oklahoma State showed some staying power against Texas A&M, so I like the game line a lot less than the first-half line. Oklahoma State has used defense and depth to win their first two games of the Big 12 Tournament, and those are attributes that work better in the second half. Also, Texas demolished Oklahoma State, 83-54, in their last meeting, so the Longhorns shouldn't have problems scoring.
Oregon (+1) vs. USC: USC beat Oregon twice this year by slim margins (71-68 at USC on February 3, and 84-82 at Oregon on January 4). As a result, the red-hot Oregon Ducks (5-0 ATS and SU in their last five games) will be looking for revenge. Also, USC is coming off of two tough games (an OT win over Stanford, and a win last night over a very good Washington State squad), while Oregon had an easy time with a tired California team.
Pittsburgh vs. Georgetown (-2): These teams split games this year, with Georgetown winning by eight on February 24, and Pittsburgh winning by five on January 13. Even though Georgetown lost ATS against Notre Dame yesterday, they showed a lot of fortitude in coming back from a double-digit deficit. Also, the Hoyas are 17-3-2 ATS in their last 22 games, and they're 12-1 SU in their last 13. On the other hand, Pittsburgh is just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. Georgetown's a more efficient squad than Pittsburgh: the Hoyas shoot 50.6% while allowing opponents a 38.8 FG%; Pittsburgh shoots 47.8% while allowing opponents to shoot 40.7%. Both teams will be a little tired, so I like the team with the best interior game, and that's Georgetown.
Utah State (+4.5) vs. New Mexico State: Utah State's gone 7-3 ATS in their last ten games, including two huge wins over top-ranked Nevada. Meanwhile, New Mexico State is just 4-6 ATS in their last ten games. The teams split their meetings this year, with Utah State winning by 12 at home on February 5, and New Mexico State edging Utah State by three on February 22. This game could come down to free throws, and Utah State's the better team from the charity stripe (77.9% for Utah State, compared to 64.9% for New Mexico State).
Cal Poly SLO (+3.5) vs. Long Beach State: No, I have no idea why "SLO" is capitalized, and, honestly, I don't really care. All that matters is that Cal Poly SLO is one of the hottest mid-majors in the country, as they've gone 8-0 ATS since losing to Long Beach State, 77-80, on February 8. And since losing, 70-77, at Long Beach State on January 6, Cal Poly SLO's gone 13-2 SU. They're also 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games. Cal Poly SLO has an efficiency advantage, as they have converted 46.3% of FG attempts, while allowing opponents a 43.1 FG%. Meanwhile, Long Beach State shoots 45.7% while allowing opponents a 44.1 FG%.
NBA (55 - 48)
Knicks at Wizards (-6.5): With David Lee still out for the Knicks, they're missing his 10.7 rebounds per game and efficient 11.2 points. The Knicks are also just 4-6 ATS in their last ten games. While Washington's been even worse lately (3-7 ATS in their last ten), they're gradually re-developing chemistry among their Big Three (Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison). The Wizards lost at Atlanta on Wednesday, but they dominated the Raptors, 129-109, at home in the game before that. With two days of rest since the road loss at Atlanta, the Wizards should return to form tonight.
Sixers (+3.5) at Pacers: The Pacers have lost seven straight games SU (1-6 ATS), and they'll be missing point guard Jamaal Tinsley and superstar big man Jermain O'Neal tonight. Meanwhile, the Sixers have won six straight SU (4-0-2 ATS). They're playing the second night of a back-to-back, but they're 8-6-1 ATS in those situations.
Cavs (pick 'em) at Bucks: The Cavs have won the last five meetings in this series (4-1 ATS), and they're 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall (9-4 SU). Their only straight-up losses during this stretch have come against quality teams (at Dallas, at Miami, vs. Chicago, and at Washington). Even though the Bucks have been good since Michael Redd's return (6-3-1 ATS), the public's starting to catch on, and that's why this one's a "pick 'em." The Bucks are only 4-6 SU in their last ten games, so I like the Cavs to continue rolling.
Nets at Spurs (-11): The Nets have lost their last four games SU and ATS, and they've steadily gotten worse, losing by margins of eight points, 13 points, 13 points, and 21 points. Also, the Nets are playing the second night of a back-to-back, and they're going agains the second hottest team in the NBA, as the Spurs are on an 11-game winning streak (8-3 ATS).
Boxing
Wladimir Klitschko vs. Ray Austin (+800 to win by KO-TKO-DQ): Boxing's one of the few sports where misinformation is prevalent, as there's not enough fan interest for there to be a major media presence that siphons through all of the ####. In essence, it's difficult to separate the hype from reality. Wladimir Klitschko epitomizes this hype. Even when he got knocked out by less-skilled fighters (Corrie Sanders and Lamon Brewster), promoters said that these were just flukes, and he continues to be a heavy favorite in all of his fights. But it's not a fluke when you get knocked out as a result of having a weak chin. At 6'6", 250 lbs, Ray Austin is the type of big puncher that Klitschko should fear. While Klitschko can beat lesser punchers with his boxing skills, he's never shown that he can take a punch. Bet on Austin to win by KO because you get better odds than you would by betting on him to win in any fashion (+500). If this fight goes to a decision, Klitschko will win, as he's the superior boxer. And if Austin wins, it's going to be because he knocked out Klitschko, who yet again shows that he can't take a punch.
Villanova vs. DePaul (+5): The DePaul Blue Demons finished the season by winning five of their last six games SU (4-2 ATS). Villanova also ended the season on a hot stretch, as they won seven of nine games SU. But Villanova was only 5-4 ATS over this span, which shows that their success last season might still be inflating the public's perception of them now. Both teams allow the opposition to shoot about 41%, and they finished the season with identical Big East records (9-7), so they seem equally matched. However, DePaul's a more efficient offensive team (45% field-goal percentage for DePaul, compared to Villanova's 42.5% field-goal percentage). Also, this game means more for DePaul, who likely needs to win the Big East Championship to earn an NCAA bid. On the other hand, Villanova clinched an at-large berth with their home win over Syracuse last week, and guard Mike Nardi might not play due to a calf injury.
UConn vs. Syracuse (-3.5): Syracuse went 10-6 in Big East play, while UConn struggled to a 6-10 finish in the conference. The Huskies also lost three straight games to end the season (0-3 ATS), and they were just 2-8 ATS on the road this season. Meanwhile, Syracuse went 5-0 ATS in their final five games, and they'll be playing hard this afternoon, as they likely need one more win in order to secure an at-large bid.
NBA (48 - 46)
Wizards (-1.5) at Hawks: The Wizards are starting to gel with the return of Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison from injuries. They've won their last three games SU, and even though they're only 1-2 ATS during this time frame, last night's 20-point home blowout of the Raptors shows that the Wizards are back as one of the Eastern Conference's elite teams. On the other hand, the young Hawks have dropped their last six games (1-5 ATS), and they're only 11-17 ATS at home.
Rockets (-6) at Celtics: The Celtics have won four straight games SU and ATS, and they're 8-2 ATS in their last ten games. That explains why the Rockets aren't favored by more in this one. But the Celtics are still just 7-20-1 ATS at home (when they're given fewer points by the oddsmakers), while the Rockets have compiled a 17-13 ATS mark on the road. Also, the Rockets are a great team coming off a loss, as they've gone 16-7 ATS in those situations.
Lakers at Bucks (-4.5): Kobe Bryant will likely be suspended from this game, due to the fact that last night's foul on Marko Jaric was the exact same as his foul on Manu Ginobili, which resulted in a one-game suspension six weeks ago. The Lakers have lost three straight games (1-2 ATS), and they'll continue to struggle without the services of their best player. Also, the Bucks will be looking to bounce back after losing two straight games (SU and ATS). Prior to this rough patch, the Bucks had gone 5-0-1 ATS since the All-Star Break.
Warriors at Wizards (-8.5): The Warriors have lost six straight games ATS, and they've lost by an average margin of 16.6 points over their current three-game road trip. They're also just 10-19-1 ATS on the road for the season. While the Wizards aren't much better at home (11-17-2 ATS), both Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison returned from injury on Friday night, which means that the Wizards are getting healthier for the stretch run. They were just 4-9 ATS during Jamison's absence, so getting him back into the flow of the game is important.
Bulls at Bucks (-1.5): Even though the Bulls have been terrific since the All-Star Break (6-1 ATS), they're still just 9-19-1 ATS on the road for the season. Meanwhile, the Bucks are one of the hottest teams in basketball, as Michael Redd's return injected renewed life into them (5-0-1 ATS with Redd back in lineup). In the last ten home games with Redd, the Bucks are 9-1 ATS and SU. The only SU loss came by one point against the Pistons in Redd's first game back from injury. This team is screaming "VALUE!!!" and it's not going to last much longer.
Lakers at Suns (-10): The Lakers are only 3-6-1 ATS in their last ten games, and they'll have difficulties today with Lamar Odom out due to a shoulder injury. It's a bad time to have depth problems, as the Suns' high-energy style causes players to tire more quickly than usual. The Suns are 5-2 ATS since Steve Nash's return from injury. On average, they've outscored opponents by ten points at home, while the Lakers get outscored by almost two points on the road.
Jazz (-1.5) at Hornets: The Jazz are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games with Deron Williams in the lineup, and they're 16-12 ATS on the road. Although the Hornets are a respectable 18-11-1 ATS at home, they've lost three of their last four games ATS.
Nets (+2.5) at Sixers: The Nets are 15-11-1 ATS on the road, while the Sixers are 12-15-1 ATS at home. The Nets are also coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Celtics, and they could erase that memory with a good showing in this winnable game.
NCAA Basketball (56.8 - 67)
Kentucky at Florida (-8.5): I really, really wanted to recommend the Kentucky moneyline, but this one has Gator blowout written all over it. Kentucky's just 5-7-1 ATS on the road, and they're facing a Florida team that's been criticized all week for its poor showing at Tennessee. Also, this is Florida's last regular-season home game, and it's senior day. That means that both the fans and players should be psyched. And Florida played well in the final 15 minutes at Tennessee, so they're obviously still capable of playing high-caliber basketball.
Clemson at Virginia Tech (-6.5): Clemson's fallen off the map in the last eight games, going just 1-6-1 ATS. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech had won four of fives games ATS before losing to Virginia on Thursday. Also, I listened to their coach, Seth Greenberg, on the radio yesterday, and he sounded like he wasn't sure if Virginia Tech had yet earned an at-large bid. He's wrong, but as long as he feels that way, his team will be playing like it's season's on the line.
Creighton (+2) vs. Southern Illinois -- Missouri Valley Championship: Southern Illinois beat Creighton twice this year, by scores of 72-68 and 58-57. Creighton will look to avenge those close losses, and they also have an NCAA Tournament berth on the line. At 27-5 overall, Southern Illinois is already in, so it might actually be a nice gesture to just let Creighton win, as that would assure the MVC of two teams in the Tourney. I'm joking -- well, kind of.
Boston College (+280) at Georgia Tech: After losing three straight games to tough schools (Duke, UNC, and Virginia Tech), Boston College got back on the winning track with a home win over Clemson on February 24, and they've had a week to rest since that game. Meanwhile, the sloppy Yellow Jackets tried to let North Carolina back into the game on Thursday before finally closing it out, 84-77. They'll suffer a letdown today against a fresher, more intense Boston College.
St. Mary's vs. Santa Clara (+1.5) -- WCC Semis: At 20-9 overall, Santa Clara must win the WCC championship to earn an NCAA bid. They've shown that they can beat their conference opponents (10-4 record in WCC play), and they haven't played since Monday. On the other hand, St. Mary's just played last night, so they could be slightly tired against a better opponent.
Suns (-8) at Sixers: The Suns are 4-1 ATS since Steve Nash's return from injury, and they've won all five of those games by double digits (the only ATS loss came against Boston when the Suns won, 118-108, but failed to cover a 12.5-point spread). Also, the Suns are 19-11 ATS on the road (23-7 SU). They're playing the second night of a back-to-back, but they're still above .500 in these scenarios (7-6 ATS). Meanwhile, the Sixers are 4-6 ATS in their last ten games, and they're just 11-15 ATS at home. Furthermore, they won their previous game, and they're just 5-12-1 ATS coming off a win. The Suns, on the other hand, are 26-16-1 ATS after winning their previous game. Most importantly, the Sixers have scored 90 points or less in six of their last seven games. If that happens tonight, they'll almost certainly lose ATS.
Heat at Wizards (-2.5): The Heat are just 1-3 ATS in their last four road games (0-4 SU), and even though they're 16-13 ATS overall on the road, they're just 11-19 SU. The straight-up record is important here since the Heat are only getting 2.5 points -- if they lose SU, they'll probably lose ATS. Plus, Dwayne Wade is likely out for the season, and that will eventually devastate the Heat, as they don't have anyone else who can create shots. The Wizards are also suffering injury woes with Caron Butler likely out again, but they could get Antawn Jamison back tonight. While the Heat are only 11-15-2 ATS at home, their 21-7 SU mark seems more significant when they're laying only 2.5 points.
Knicks (+4) at Celtics: The Celtics are just 5-20-1 ATS at home (5-21 SU), and they're only 3-9 ATS as favorites. The Knicks are underdogs in this one because of the injuries to point guard Jamal Crawford and power forward David Lee. While the Knicks will definitely miss Lee's rebounding contributions and efficient shooting percentage, they'll hardly miss a beat with Crawford out. In terms of win production, he's no better than an average player, as he doesn't get many assists, and he misses too many shots (40% field-goal percentage).
Raptors (+5.5) at Rockets: The Raptors are a terrific 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games. Even though they were blown out by the Spurs on Monday night, they haven't lost two in a row ATS since January 26 and 27. Also, they haven't lost two games in a row SU since December 30 and January 3. And the Raptors are a quality road team (17-12 ATS). On the other hand, the Rockets haven't been playing well lately, going just 3-5 ATS in their last eight games. They're also just 11-16-1 ATS at home.
Sonics (+3) at Clippers: The Sonics are 5-1 ATS in their last six games, and they're 15-10-2 ATS on the road. Meanwhile, the Clippers are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten, and they're 13-15-1 ATS at home. With Rashard Lewis back in the lineup, the Sonics seem primed to make a run at the final playoff spot in the West, while the Clippers' fortunes took a bad turn on Monday night when they lost Shaun Livingston for the season due to a severely dislocated knee. Livingston could penetrate and create shots for his teammates, so he'll be sorely missed.
College Basketball (45.4 - 57)
Texas A&M at Texas (-1.5): Texas A&M has gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, and they handed Texas a sound beating in College Station on February 5. But the Longhorns have been playing great since that loss, as they've won five straight games (3-2 ATS). That includes home blowouts of Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, along with a ten-point road win over Oklahoma on Saturday. This young Texas team is finally learning how to play basketball together, as D.J. Augustin, Justin Mason, Damion James, and A.J. Abrams are complementing superstar Kevin Durant. Also, in terms of situational psychology, this game means a lot more to Texas than A&M for three reasons. First, it's a revenge scenario on Texas' home court. Second, A&M is a bitter rival, so Texas will desperately fight to prevent the Aggies from sweeping them. Finally, assuming that Durant enters the NBA draft this summer, this will be his last game in Austin, so he'll try to go out with a ####. Even though A&M would love to sweep Texas, the game just doesn't mean as much for a team that already has a first-round bye in the Big 12 Championship and at least a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Maryland (+240) at Duke: Maryland has won five straight games, which includes home wins over Duke and North Carolina, and road wins over Clemson and North Carolina State. Except for the narrow win over North Carolina on Sunday, Maryland won each of these games by double digits. Meanwhile, Duke's gone on its own four-game winning streak since losing at Maryland. This streak includes road wins at Clemson, Boston College, and St. John's, along with a home win against Georgia Tech. But the only double-digit win came at St. John's last Saturday, which shows that Duke just hasn't been as dominant as Maryland over the past few weeks. Also, Maryland has legitimate playmakers in D.J. Strawberry and Greivis Vasquez, while Duke relies on a host of role players. Even though it's a revenge scenario for Duke, I like a superior Maryland team that's in need of another big win after a mediocre showing in conference play (8-6).
Wizards at Nets (-4.5): The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games with Jason Kidd in the lineup. Now that the trade deadline has passed, he and Vince Carter can concentrate on making a playoff push. On the other hand, the Wizards are beat up right now, with Caron Butler being the most recent injury victim (back spasms). Butler, who is the Wizards' most productive player in terms of win production, is questionable tonight. Also, Gilbert Arenas' shoulder is sore, and Antawn Jamison is still out. When your three stars are hurting, it's hard to win games.
Suns (-6) at Pacers: The Suns are 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) since Steve Nash's return from a shoulder injury. They've scored 115 or more points in each of those contests, and they're 17-12 ATS on the road for the season (22-7 SU). Meanwhile, the Pacers are just 14-15 ATS at home, and they've suffered two straight losses SU and ATS. The Pacers gave up 110 points in both of those games, and they've surrendered over 100 points in their last four games, which indicates that there are problems with the Pacers' defense. That's a recipe for disaster when the high-octane Suns are coming into town.
Mavs (-4.5) at Timberwolves: The Mavs are now on pace to win 68.5 games, but if you only look at their performance since an 0-4 start, they're actually on pace to win 70.5 games. That means that they're one of the best teams in NBA regular-season history, so you've got to love this line against the mediocre Timberwolves. The Mavs are 14-10-2 ATS on the road, and they're 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. Although Josh Howard might be out tonight, the Mavs should still cover against a Timbewolves' team that's just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games, including three straight ATS losses at home.
Warriors at Bucks (-6): The Bucks are 3-0-1 ATS since Michael Redd's return (4-0 ATS in regulation, as they ended up pushing a game against the Pacers that went into overtime). In the 20 games prior to Redd's injury, the Bucks were 14-6 ATS, so they're actually 17-6-1 ATS over the last 24 games with Redd in the lineup. The Warriors also recently got a "star" player back with Jason Richardson's return from injury, but his 38.2% field-goal percentage might hurt a team that already has too many volume shooters. The Warriors are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten games, and they're 10-16-1 ATS on the road.
NCAA Basketball (44.4 - 54)
Michigan State (-1) at Michigan: Michigan State has won four straight games SU and ATS. Even though these were all home games, the Spartans beat some quality teams (Indiana and Wisconsin). Tonight's an important game for Michigan State, as they're 8-6 in the Big Ten, while Michigan is 7-7. A win for Michigan State would get them a first-round bye in next week's Big Ten Tournament. Meanwhile, Michigan is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games, and they could only muster 44 points against Michigan State's superior defense a couple weeks ago. Michigan State should complete the sweep tonight, as the Spartans shoot and defend better than the Wolverines.
West Virgnia (+340) at Pittsburgh: Statistical research reveals that Pittsburgh should easily win this game, as West Virginia hasn't beaten a quality team on the road this year. Also, Pittsburgh's coming off a loss at Georgetown, so it should be psyched to rebound with a home win. But this game means so much more to West Virginia that I have to recommend the +340 moneyline. A late-season road win at Pittsburgh would improve West Virginia's RPI and possibly convince the Tournament committee that the Mountaineers are worthy of an at-large bid. West Virginia can go on three-point shooting tears, so an upset's not out of the question. Also, even though Pittsburgh is coming off of a loss, they don't have much to play for, as they're already guaranteed a first-round bye in the Big East Tournament and a high seed in the Big Dance.
Florida (-3) at Tennessee: Florida has lost two of its last three games, with both losses occurring on the road. This might have been a result of complacency, as the Gators have already clinched the SEC regular-season title and a first-round bye in the SEC tournament. However, those losses should have led head coach Billy Donovan to light a fire underneath his team, as the Gators are no longer a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, according to the latest Bracketology reports. Moreover, Tennessee doesn't play very good defense (45.4 FG% allowed), while Florida has a terrific 52.7 FG%. And Florida outrebounds opponents 36.5 to 28.6, while Tennessee gets outrebounded 35.0 to 36.8. The line is generous in this one because Florida has lost its last five games ATS, so I'd take advantage of one of the rare times when you get value by betting on the defending national champs.
Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-2.5): Oklahoma State has lost four straight games, and six of their last seven. That includes two straight losses at home. For the sake of the basketball program (and poor Sean Sutton's life as the head coach), this is an essential game for Oklahoma State. They must gain some momentum before the Big 12 Tournament, which they might have to win in order to earn a berth in the real Tournament. But all hope isn't lost, as Oklahoma State could conceivably end its regular season on a three-game winning streak, considering that their final two opponents are Baylor and Nebraska. However, those wins would mean a lot less if Oklahoma State can't win a home game against Kansas State tonight. Meanwhile, this game is much less important for Kansas State, as they're almost assured of a first-round bye in the Big 12 Tournament, and they're likely in line for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tourney. Also, Kansas State has lost the subsequent game after each of their last three wins, and they're coming off of a win over Colorado on Saturday. We'll see if that trend continues tonight.
