Rockies (Fogg) at Mets (Pelfrey) -1.5 runs (+110): Josh Fogg has pitched poorly this year (6.61 ERA, 1.84 WHIP), and the following Mets have pounded him in the past: Shawn Green (10-for-31, 5 2B), Moises Alou (10-for-27, 1 HR), Paul Lo Duca (10-for-21, 2 2B), Carlos Beltran (8-for-19, 1 3B), Carlos Delgado (6-for-12), and Jose Valentin (3-for-7, 1 HR). Opposing starter Mike Pelfrey hasn't pitched consistently well this year (10.2 IP, 6 ER, 12 H, 6 BB, 5 K). However, he has immense potential, and he should be serviceable against a Rockies' offense that hasn't been able to hit much this season. The Rockies rank last in the National League in slugging percentage and 12th in runs scored. Meanwhile, the Mets are first in slugging percentage and second in runs scored.
Brewers (Sheets) +110 at Cubs (Lilly): After a good opening-day start, Ben Sheets gave up 12 earned runs over his next two starts. But he rebounded with a solid outing against the Astros last week, and his 1.15 WHIP for the season shows that it's tough for opposing hitters to reach base against him. Among Cubs' hitters, only Derrek Lee has had consistent success (17-for-46, 2 2Bs, 7 HR). Aramis Ramirez (12-for-55), Jacque Jones (2-for-13), and Cesar Izturis (2-for-24) have all struggled against the Brewers' ace. Although Cubs' starter Ted Lilly has been one of their lone bright spots this year (26 IP, 2.42 ERA, 0.77 WHIP), he's due for a bad outing. Last year, Lilly had a 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 181.2 IP, and I expect his numbers to be closer to that by the end of this season, with a moderate improvement due to the switch to the pitcher-friendly NL. Also, the Brewers have won four straight games, so it'll be hard for the Cubs, who are losers of three straight, to break through today.
Red Sox (Schilling) -130 at Orioles (Cabrera): Against Curt Schilling, the only Orioles with success are Aubrey Huff (11-for-43, 5 2B, 1 HR), Chris Gomez (10-for-33, 1 HR), and Miguel Tejada (7-for-20, 3 2B). Everyone else in their lineup has struggled to hit him. Schilling should put an end to the Red Sox' modest two-game losing streak today, as he's been good this year: 26 IP, 11 ER, 24 H, 5 BB, 20 K. Meanwhile, opposing starter Daniel Cabrera has shown improvement with his control: 26.3 IP, 12 ER, 28 H, 7 BB, 26 K. Last year, he walked 104 batters in 148 innings, so this season's decline in walks indicates that he's finally learning to pitch. But the fact is that Cabrera is still learning, and he's getting hit more than in the past as a result of his desire to avoid walks. The Red Sox boast dangerous hitters who make great contact on pitches that get too much of the strike zone, so I expect Cabrera to have a tough time tonight. And Schilling should hold the Orioles to few enough runs for the Red Sox to grind out a victory.
Braves (Hudson) -150 at Marlins (Olsen): Tim Hudson has been terrific this season: 29 IP, 2 ER, 16 H, 11 BB, 19 K. He beat the Marlins on April 15, allowing six hits and a run in seven innings. This is actually a rematch of that game, as Scott Olsen got ####ed up for five runs on six hits in just 2.2 innings. Olsen's been struglging with his control this year: 18 IP, 15 ER, 22 H, 15 BB, 10 K. Since he hasn't shown any signs of coming out of his funk, the Braves are a good play today.
Blue Jays (Burnett) at Yankees (Pettitte) -1.5 runs (-110): Andy Pettitte has been a warrior this year, as he's started four games and pitched in relief twice in order to save an overworked Yankees' bullpen. Pettitte's put up solid numbers in his outings (25.3 IP, 5 ER, 24 H, 9 BB, 13 K), and he'll be looking to break the Yankees' five-game losing streak today. Meanwhile, A.J. Burnett has been inconsistent this year (21 IP, 13 ER, 18 H, 13 BB, 14 K), which doesn't bode well against the Yankees' powerful lineup. Both teams have hit the opposing starter in the past, but I expect Pettitte to get the better of this matchup today in the pressure-filled environs of Yankee Stadium.
Devil Rays (Jackson) at Angels (Lackey) -1.5 runs (-120): The Los Angeles Angels (10-10) open up a two-game set tonight at home against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (9-10). Although their records are almost identical, the Angels are superb at home (9-3). The Halos will give the ball to their ace, John Lackey (2-2, 2.55 ERA), who revels in chewing up the Devil Rays and spitting them out. The tall Texan is 6'1" with a 2.61 ERA against Tampa Bay. Tonight's starter for the D-Rays is the unpredictable Edwin Jackson (0-2, 6.75 ERA). Although Jackson was once considered a top pitching prospect, he's fallen victim to a lack of command. Tonight, he faces a lineup that will make you pay dearly for any mistakes. The Angels' Vladimir Guerrero has been knocking the cover off the ball this past week to the tune of nine hits in his last 18 AB.
Tigers (Durbin) at White Sox (Danks) Over 10.5 runs: To say the Tigers' Chad Durbin (0-1, 10.54 ERA) has been bad this year would be a gross understatement. Durbin has yet to make it out of the 5th inning in each of his 3 starts and has allowed a whopping 20 hits in just under 14 innings. Even more frightening than Durbin's numbers this year are his career numbers against the White Sox (1-6, 10.26 ERA). The White Sox' John Danks (0-2, 5.06 ERA) has been marginally better than Durbin this year, but couldn't find his way out of the fourth inning last Friday when he faced Detroit. In that contest, Danks allowed six hits and four runs in 4.2 innings. Both the Tigers and the White Sox have some huge bats (Paul Konerko, Magglio Ordonez, et al.) that will likely knock these two struggling pitchers out before the 5th inning. Expect a slugfest tonight at US Cellular Field.
NBA (118 - 98)
Wizards at Cavs -11.5: Without their top scorer (Gilbert Arenas) and most productive player (Caron Butler), the Wizards are pretty much dead on arrival in this series. 11.5 points is a lot, but the Wizards' 36.5 FG% in Game 1 wasn't a fluke, as they just don't have anyone who can consistently put the ball in the hoop against a quality team.
Nuggets (+8.5) at Spurs: The Nuggets are too good to be getting this many points. Although the Spurs should bounceback in Game 2 to even the series, this game's going to be relatively close, unless the Nuggets just have an awful shooting night. Nene and Marcus Camby appear capable of causing problems for the Spurs' interior game, as the Spurs were forced into too many jumpshots in Game 1, and they only got to the free-throw line ten times. Meanwhile, the Nuggets took the ball to the rim, and they were rewarded with 25 free-throw attempts.
Warriors at Mavs (-9): In Game 1, the Mavs shot only 35%, compared to the Warriors 42%. The Warriors aren't known for their defense, so the Mavs' poor-shooting night appears to be a bit of a fluke. For the season, the Mavs shot 46.2%, and they should come close to that tonight. Also, the Mavs will be deadset on avenging the embarrassing Game 1 loss, so this one should be a blowout.
Cubs (Zambrano) at Brewers (Sheets) -120: Cubs' starter Carlos Zambrano has a 4.20 career ERA against the Brewers, and his season didn't begin au####iously with a loss to the Reds on Monday. Meanwhile, Ben Sheets appears primed to make a run at the Cy Young award, and the Brewers could be a major threat in the NL Central. Sheets threw a complete game, two-hitter in the opener on Monday, as he allowed only one earned run. Most importantly, the oft-injured Sheets wasn't trying to overpower hitters: he struck out three while walking none.
Pirates (Armas) at Reds (Harang) -170: Harang began the season well, as he didn't give up a run in seven innings of work in the opener against the Cubs. On the other hand, Armas has been underachieving his entire career. His 5.03 ERA in 2006 was bad, but the 1.5 WHIP (walks + hits per inning pitched) might be even worse.
Twins (Silva) at White Sox (Vazquez) -130: Carlos Silva has a 5.75 ERA in his career against the White Sox, and he posted an awful 1.544 WHIP overall last season. Although Javier Vazquez is coming off three straight seasons in which his ERA has been above 4.00 (but below 5.00), his 1.296 WHIP in 2006 looks awesome compared to Silva's awful numbers.
Dodgers (Lowe) -130 at Giants (Ortiz): Derek Lowe will need to rebound from a bad opener against Milwaukee, but the real reason for this pick is Russ Ortiz. Last year, Ortiz went 0-8 with an 8.14 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. His numbers weren't all that much better in 2005, when he was 5-11, 6.89 ERA, and 1.84 WHIP. Look for the Dodgers to punish Ortiz today in what could be a blowout.
Diamondbacks (Webb) -140 at Nationals (Patterson): Brandon Webb won the Cy Young award last year, so you can attribute his bad opener to the fact that he was playing at Coors Field. But John Patterson doesn't get a free pass after being spanked by the Marlins in the opener (6 ERs in 3.2 IP). Ride the Nats' opponents until they're a daily 2-1 favorite.
Cardinals (Reyes) at Astros (Oswalt) -160: When Roy Oswalt left the game with a 2-1 lead on Monday, he probably didn't think that the Astros would still be searching for their first win when he came back out six days later. But that's a good thing for bettors, as a motivated Oswalt is almost impossible to beat. The Astros' offense should wake up tonight, as they've scored 7 ERs in 11.1 innings against Cards' starter Anthony Reyes.
Red Sox (Tavarez) at Rangers (Millwood) -120: Although Julian Tavarez posted better numbers as a starter than as a reliever last season, he's had problems against the Rangers in his career (35.1 IP, 5.86 ERA, 40 hits against). Rangers' starter Kevin Millwood pitched well in the opener at Los Angeles, as bad luck contributed to him allowing three earned runs in five innings of work. I'm expecting this to be the first game where the Rangers' offense explodes, and Millwood works very well with a lead.
NBA (107 - 90)
Warriors at Spurs - Over 205: Until last night, the Warriors had gone over the total in seven straight games. But they got close in a 116-104 win over the Grizzlies, as they were seven points away from hitting the posted total. Even Gregg Popovich can't slow down the pace of Don Nelson's team, as the Spurs and Warriors combined to score 215 points on March 26, when the Spurs won, 126-89. The Spurs' defense obviously gave the Warriors problems in that game, but that didn't change the fact that the game was played at the Warriors' pace. The total has gone over in the last four meetings between these clubs, and there's no reason to suspect that'll change tonight.
Nuggets at Clippers (-4): This seems like a letdown spot for the Nuggets, as they're coming into Los Angeles after beating the Mavs, 75-71, last night. The Clippers have had two days to prepare for this game, and that should help against a team that's playing on the second night of a back-to-back. The Clippers are fighting off the Warriors for the last playoff spot in the West, so they'll be focussed on playing shutdown defense in this one. They're 10-2 ATS in their last ten games, so it's hard to go against them right now.
Suns at Spurs - Over 205.5: The Suns' offense has been rolling lately, as they've scored 116+ points in their last four contests (all of which have gone over the total). Meanwhile, the Spurs have played over the total in six of their last seven games, and they've averaged 105.6 points during this time frame. Most importantly, both teams have little to play for tonight, and that usually leads to a high-scoring game, as neither team will be concentrating on shut-down defense. Defense takes more focus and energy than offense, so it's often lacking when teams aren't 100% motivated for a game.
MLB (9 - 5.7)
Red Sox (Matsuzaka) -170 at Royals (Greinke): For
baseball fans, today's been a long time in the making, for it marks the American
debut of Japanese pitching sensation Daisuke Matsuzaka. Terry Francona and his
Red Sox must be salivating at the thought of their newly-imported ace facing the
lifeless Royals in what should be an easy win for Boston. KC is one of the
worst hitting teams in all of baseball, and today they'll be getting a pitching
clinic from Dice-K. No one really knows how many pitches Matsuzaka has in his
arsenal, but here's a start: four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, cutter, slider, hard slider, changeup (possibly two versions), forkball, and a curve (which
he uses sparingly, but throws from different angles, making it look like he has
at least two derivations of the pitch). The Red Sox lineup should have no problem
handling the right-handed Greinke, who could lose his composure quickly once he
gets hit by the large lefty, David Ortiz. J.D. Drew has put up good career
numbers against Greinke, providing Ortiz protection in the deep Boston
lineup.
Braves (James) Even at Phillies (Eaton): Second year
lefty Chuck James gets the start today for Atlanta as the Braves try to pull
off a sweep against the slow-starting Phillies. James has been dominant against
the Phils in his two previous starts against them, putting up an impressive 0.69
ERA in 13 innings. Last year, Ryan Howard was 0-for-6 against James,
highlighting Howard's inability to hit consistently against left-handed
pitching. Meanwhile, Andruw Jones and Edgar Renteria should feast off the
oft-injured Adam Eaton, who's making his debut in a Phillies' uniform
today.
Diamondbacks (Gonzalez) -125 at Nationals (Bergmann): For
reasons I can't explain (I guess you could call it the Soriano factor), the
Nationals won five out of the six games against the D-Backs in 2006. Today, the
Diamondbacks look to begin their 2007 series against the struggling Nationals on
a different note. Diamondbacks' starter Edgar Gonzalez had a great spring, going
5-0, and will face a Nationals lineup that lacks both power and speed. Some
people may be tempted to take the Nats today after their come-from-behind
victory against the hot-hitting Florida Marlins, but this is not something you
should do, as that game was single-handedly blown by the miserable Jorge Julio.
The D-Backs will be facing converted reliever Jason Bergmann, who pitched poorly
against Arizona in a handful of relief appearances last season. Eric Byrnes and
Orlando Hudson have been hitting exceptionally well in their first three games this
year and should provide Gonzalez with enough offense for a win today.
Grizzlies at Warriors - Under 223: In the four games since injuries to Mike Miller and Damon Stoudamire, the Grizzlies have scored 87, 88, 96, and 93 points. These point totals came against relatively weak defensive teams (Suns, Lakers, Blazers, and Sonics). Although the Warriors have scored 100+ points in four of their last five games, the Grizzlies' current offensive ineptitude should prevent the total from reaching 223 points. You have to remember that when totals are set this high, you need a group effort to reach it.
Wizards (-3.5) at Bucks: The Bucks are 1-4 ATS without Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva in the lineup, and they're 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Meanwhile, the Wizards are now at full strength with Caron Butler back in the lineup, and they nearly beat a good Raptors squad on Friday night before losing in overtime.
Cavs (-7) at Celtics. The Cavs are only 6-12-1 ATS on the second night of back-to-backs, but the Celtics are in a worse situation, as Paul Pierce's lingering elbow injury could force him to miss the rest of the season. The Celtics are just 11-24-1 ATS at home, while the Cavs are a respectable 19-16 ATS on the road. Moreover, this game has playoff implications for the Cavs, while the Celtics would be better off losing the rest of their games in order to have a chance at landing Greg Oden or Kevin Durant.
Bobcats at Raptors (-7): In their last five games, the Raptors have shot a 47.4 FG%, while allowing a 39.8 FG%. They've also outrebounded opponents by 5.6 rpg. Plus, the Raptors are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games, and they're 22-13-1 ATS at home this season. Meanwhile, the Bobcats have also been playing well ATS in their last ten games (7-2-1), and they've won both games since Emeka Okafor's return from injury. However, these wins came at home against the Hawks and Bucks. Even though the Bobcats have been improving as the year progressed, a superior Raptors team that plays well at home should be able to cover this spread.
Spurs (-8.5) at Pacers: The Pacers have lost their last four games SU and ATS, and they're just 16-23-1 ATS following a loss. Also, Jermaine O'Neal is doubtful for tonight's game, and the Pacers struggle mightily without their main offensive weapon. On the other hand, the Spurs have won six straight games SU (4-2 ATS), and they're 21-16 ATS on the road this season. Also, they've posted excellent efficiency numbers in the last five games: 50.7 FG%, while allowing a 41.5 FG%.
Nuggets (-4) at Sonics: The Sonics have won three straight games SU and ATS, but two of these wins came against the hapless Timberwolves and Grizzlies. The other win came at Denver (100-97), so the Nuggets will be trying to return the favor tonight. The Nuggets have lost five of their last six games SU (3-3 ATS), and they've allowed a 52.4 FG% in their last five games. As a result, they should be focussed on remedying their defensive woes tonight, and that shouldn't be a foreboding task against a Sonics team that's missing its best offensive player (Ray Allen).
Raptors (-3) at Celtics: The Celtics are 3-7 SU in their last ten games (5-5 ATS), but they've lost three in a row SU and ATS. Also, they've shot a paltry 42.1 FG% while allowing a 48.3 FG% in their last five games. Most importantly, the Celtics are an awful 9-24 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Raptors have been shooting well in their last five games (46.7 FG%), and they've allowed only a 43.9 FG%. Also, they're 4-2 SU and ATS in their last six games, and they've posted a 19-15 ATS mark on the road this season.
Wizards at Jazz (-7.5) - Over 213: The Wizards have lost three of their last four games SU and ATS, as they've continued to struggle with Caron Butler out. Even though the Jazz have lost seven straight games ATS, they beat the Grizzlies by ten points on Saturday night, nearly covering the 11-point spread. The Jazz' recent losing streak has caused them to lay fewer points, which creates some value, as the streak was mostly the result of a cold shooting stretch. Also, the point total should go over 213 tonight. The Wizards have scored 100+ points in six of their last seven games, and they've allowed 100+ points in their last five games. Moreover, the Wizards have allowed a 47.8 FG% over that time span, and the Jazz showed on Saturday night that they can expose a poor defense. The total has gone over in six of the last seven Wizards' games. Even though the Jazz had played under the total for seven straight games until they combined with the Grizzlies to score 226 points, the Jazz should continue their offensive outburst tonight because of the Wizards' weak defense.
Spurs (-4.5) at Warriors: The Spurs won 120-79 at Seattle last night, and the blowout afforded them an opportunity to rest their starters. Tim Duncan led the team in minutes with 29, as no one played over 30 minutes. Meanwhile, the Warriors are coming off a close loss to the Lakers in which all of the starters played over 31 minutes. Monta Ellis led the team with 41 minutes off the bench, and Andris Biedrins also logged over 40 minutes. Although the Warriors are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games with Baron Davis in the lineup, they've been playing poor defense in their last five games (46.4 FG% allowed). On the other hand, the Spurs have been playing great defense over that time period (42.9 FG% allowed), so the Warriors could have trouble scoring tonight. Also, the Warriors are just 7-12 ATS when playing on the second night of a back-to-back.
Heat (-4.5) at Hawks: The Hawks are 6-4 ATS in their last ten games, and that includes a 5-2 ATS record since Joe Johnson's injury. But they're still just 16-17 ATS at home, and they're only 11-15 ATS after winning their previous game. Also, the Hawks' efficiency numbers are almost the exact opposite of the Heat. The Hawks shoot 44.1 FG%, while allowing a 46.3 FG%; on the other hand, the Heat shoot 46.5 FG% and allow opponents a 44.7 FG%. The Heat are playing on two days' rest, and they're 10-3 ATS in those situations. Also, the Heat are 18-13-1 ATS on the road. Although the Heat's loss to Orlando in their last game ended an eight-game winning streak, they're an impressive 16-11-2 ATS after a loss. Meanwhile, the Hawks are just 11-15 ATS when winning their previous game.
Mavs (-3) at Cavs: With last night's 92-77 win over the Knicks, the Mavs broke a streak of four straight losses ATS. They're 20-2 SU in their last 22 games, and that's an important number when a team doesn't have many points to cover. Also, the Mavs are 17-12-2 ATS on the road, and they've posted a stellar record of 9-3 ATS on the second night of back-to-backs. The Cavs also played last night, and they lost to the lowly Bobcats in overtime after blowing a 10-point fourth quarter lead. That loss broke the Cavs' streak of eight straight wins SU and ten straight wins ATS. The overtime game could have a carryover effect, as Lebron James played 46 minutes, and Larry Hughes logged 44 minutes. Also, the Cavs are just 6-10-1 ATS on the second night of back-to-backs.
Pacers at Spurs (-14): The Spurs have lost their last two games SU, and they've lost three straight ATS. But they had won 13 games in a row SU before this current stretch, and they should get back on track tonight against a Pacers team that will struggle after Jermaine O'Neal reaggravated his knee injury last night. The Pacers are just 1-12 SU in their last 13 games (4-9 ATS), and they're 6-11 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back. Meanwhile, the Spurs are playing on three days' rest, and they're 4-1 ATS in those situations.
Davidson vs. Maryland (-7): Before losing to Miami in the opening round of the ACC Tournament, Maryland had won seven straight games SU and ATS. They’ve been a good bet all season, posting a 17-9 ATS mark. Also, they’re an efficient offensive team (47.9 FG%), while allowing opponents only a 38.9 FG%. Maryland’s offense is very balanced with four starters averaging over 10 ppg. Point guard Greivis Vasquez is the only starter who scores less than 10 ppg, as he’s more concerned with distributing the ball to his teammates. Davidson comes from the weak Southern Conference, and even though they’re 29-4 overall, 17 wins came from conference play. Their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers aren’t as impressive as Maryland’s, as Davidson shoots a 44.9 FG%, while allowing opponents a 42.4 FG%. They’re also less balanced than Maryland, with freshman guard Stephen Curry scoring over 20 ppg. Maryland’s loss in the ACC Tournament might be a blessing in disguise, as the Terrapins are well rested for the NCAAs.
Stanford vs. Louisville (-5.5): Stanford went 0-3-1 ATS to finish the season, and they lost four of their last five games SU. Stanford suffers from a lack of quality guard play, as their best guard is Anthony Goods, who averaged 13.2 ppg but shot only 37.1%. And a forward (Fred Washington) led the team in assists. Meanwhile, Louisville just had a seven-game winning streak (SU and ATS) snapped with a loss to Pittsburgh in the Big East semi-finals. But Louisville’s depth will serve them well in this Tournament, as they have nine players who averaged over 10 minutes per game. Also, they’re a very well-balanced team, as nobody averaged more than 13 ppg. 6’11” David Padgett will need to stop Stanford’s 7’0” Brook Lopez, but if Padgett fails initially, Louisville can afford to double-team Lopez because Stanford doesn’t have any other significant scoring threats.
#### Roberts vs. Washington State (-6.5): MCC champion #### Roberts was just 2-3 ATS this year, as most of their games didn’t have lines posted. They didn’t fair well against other quality teams, as they lost by six points at home to Utah State on February 17, and they lost by ten points at BYU on December 29. Also, #### Roberts barely beat under-.500 Seton Hall on a neutral court. Two guys (F Caleb Green and G Ken Tutt) do all the scoring for #### Roberts, so Washington State should win easily if they take them out of the game. Washington State finished 14-6 in the extremely competitive Pac-10, and they have 10 players who average more than 10 minutes per game.
Belmont vs. Georgetown (-16.5): Like #### Roberts, Belmont was only 2-3 ATS this year, and they actually played even worse competition in their nonconference games where lines were posted. They lost at St. Mary’s (60-71), and they won by only two points at Rice (87-85). Meanwhile, Georgetown went 19-2-2 ATS in their final 23 games. That’s incredible. Georgetown should be favored by 20 or more points in this one.
Pennsylvania vs. Texas A&M (-13.5): Penn played in the Ivy League, so their record’s inflated as a result of a string of easy wins. A few of their nonconference games stand out, though, as the Quakers lost the following games: vs. St. Joseph’s (74-84), at North Carolina (64-102), at Seton Hall (85-94), vs. Fordham (60-77), and at Villanova (89-99). Also, they’re just 12-14-1 ATS overall this season. Meanwhile, Texas A&M was 16-10 ATS this year, and their loss to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Tournament will make them hungry for a big first-round win. Also, A&M’s offensive and defensive efficiency are excellent: 50.1 FG% on offense, and 37.2 FG% allowed on defense.
George Washington (+3.5) vs. Vanderbilt: George Washington won their last eight games SU (7-1 ATS), while Vanderbilt finished the season 3-5 ATS. George Washington has an efficiency edge, as they shoot 46.3% while allowing a 41.2 FG%. On the other hand, Vanderbilt shoots 45.4% while allowing a 44.7 FG%.
VCU (+6.5) vs. Duke: VCU went 8-2 SU (5-5 ATS) to finish the season, and they were 16-11-2 ATS overall. Also, their 11-5-1 ATS mark on the road shows that they don’t need to be at home to play well. On the other hand, Duke is in the middle of a three-game losing streak (SU and ATS). It’s questionable whether the Blue Devils can win a big game with their current group of role players.
Michigan State (-2) vs. Marquette: Michigan State allowed opponents a 38.3 FG% while shooting 47.1% on offense. They also went 5-3 ATS to finish the season. Meanwhile, Marquette will be without guard Jerel McNeal, and that hurts, as he contributed 14.7 ppg, 4.8 rpg, and 3.8 apg. Marquette was just 3-5 ATS in their last eight games, and they’re not nearly as efficient as Michigan State (44% on field goals, while allowing opponents a 41.6 FG%).
Wright State (+10) vs. Pittsburgh: Wright State went 13-2-1 ATS to finish the season, and two wins over Butler in the last month show that they can beat highly-ranked teams. Point guard Dashaun Wood (19.3 ppg, 3.8 apg) will determine how far Wright State goes in this Tournament -- he will be a household name by the end of the weekend if Wright State is still standing. But Pittsburgh’s going to be a tough test, as Wright State doesn’t have big enough players to matchup against 7’0” Aaron Gray. Still, Pittsburgh, ended the season on a 3-7 ATS stretch, so they’re definitely vulnerable.
Gonzaga (+1.5) vs. Indiana: Since top scorer Josh Heytvelt’s suspension, Gonzaga’s only lost one game SU (7-1 ATS). Their offensive efficiency and team defense have kept them among the top echelon of teams (48.7 FG% while holding opponents to a 39.9 FG%). The Zags’ balanced scoring is an advantage, but I’m most impressed by the fact that almost all of the players are proficient rebounders. Meanwhile, Indiana ended the season poorly, going 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. They also shoot a lower FG% than Gonzaga, while allowing a higher FG% on defense.
NBA (70 – 57)
Spurs (-6.5) at Bucks: The Bucks have lost four of their last five games SU and ATS, and even though they’re 15-14 ATS at home, they’ve suffered two straight losses on their home court. Also, the Bucks just fired head coach Terry Stotts, who was popular among the players. Stotts got a raw deal, as it’s not his fault that management was stupid enough to trade point guard T.J. Ford for forward Charlie Villanueva in the off-season. Imagine where this club would be with an electric ball distributor who could consistently create open looks for stars Andrew Bogut and Michael Redd -- they’d be a contender for the Eastern Conference championship. Oftentimes, a head coaching change creates a spark, but that usually happens when the players didn't like the former coach. In this case, the players liked Stotts, and they’re going to be unhappy that management didn’t even have the courtesy to inform everyone about the firing before they heard it on the news. The Spurs are the polar opposite of the poorly-run Bucks, as they enter tonight’s game on a 13-game winning streak (9-4 ATS). They’re also 19-15 ATS on the road, and they should easily handle a disorganized Bucks’ squad.
Heat (+2.5) at Nets: The Nets have put together two wins following their five-game losing streak. But those wins came against bad defensive teams (Hornets and Grizzlies), while the losing streak was a product of the Nets’ inability to score against quality defensive teams (Spurs, Rockets, Mavs, and Sixers). The Heat boast one of the NBA’s toughest defenses, and they’re riding a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS). They’re also 17-13-1 ATS on the road, and the Nets don’t have anyone who can matchup against Shaquille O’Neal.
Florida A&M vs. Niagara (-8.5): Florida A&M is just 1-0 ATS for the season, and that tells most of the story: if your conference is so weak that there's no interest in betting on the outcome, then you're probably not very good. Florida A&M was only 21-13 despite playing in the weak Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC), and they got slaughtered when they played good schools early in the season (71-107 vs. Bradley, 63-84 vs. Illinois, and 51-77 vs. Pittsburgh). Meanwhile, Niagara finished the season on an 11-game winning streak, and the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) had two other quality teams in Marist (24-8) and Siena (20-12). Also, Niagara started the season 2-6 because top-scorer Charron Fisher (21.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg) was suspended for attacking a Niagara pitcher outside of a bar. Since his return to the lineup, Niagara is 20-5. They even beat Holy Cross on a neutral court, so it's curious why Holy Cross earned a #13 seed while Niagara is relegated to the play-in game. Hopefully, this pick is correct, as I don't want to hear anyone say, "Niagara Falls."
NBA (65 - 53)
Kings at Cavs (-6.5): The Cavs are on a five-game winning streak, and they've won their last seven games ATS. Over this span, they've beaten quality teams (Toronto, Houston, at Detroit, and at Milwaukee). Also, the Cavs are 20-11 ATS when playing with one day of rest between games. On the other hand, the Kings have lost two in a row, and their defense has been awful in road games (47.9 FG% allowed, while shooting 44.1% on offense). The Kings are 14-19 ATS after a loss, and the Cavs are 20-16-1 ATS following a win.
Sixers (-1) at Hawks: The Hawks have gone 3-0 (SU and ATS) since star guard Joe Johnson went down with an injury. That success can't last, as Johnson's their best player. Those last three games were close, and two were against poor teams (Timberwolves and Grizzlies). Also, the Hawks had lost six straight games SU (1-5 ATS) before this current stretch. At home, the Hawks are only 14-17 ATS, while the Sixers are 17-14-1 ATS on the road. The Sixers have won their last three games against the Hawks (SU and ATS). In the last five games, the Sixers have shot 50.3% and held opponents to a 43.7 FG%. Over the same period of time, the Hawks are shooting 45.1% and allowing opponents a 45.7 FG%.
Jazz (-1.5) at Heat: The Jazz are 8-0 SU (7-0-1 ATS) since the All-Star Break in games where Deron Williams plays. During their current six-game winning streak, the Jazz have won by ten or more points in every game, and they've won by 20 or more points three times. Also, the Jazz are 17-12-1 ATS on the road. Meanwhile, the Heat are on their own six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS), but they haven't played a team that features a penetrating point guard since Dwayne Wade's injury. Mehmet Okur's versatility could cause the Heat some matchup problems tonight, as Shaquille O'Neal doesn't like to wander away from the paint.
Clippers vs. Spurs - Under 177: The Clippers have played under the total in five of their last six games, and they're averaging just 83.5 points per game during that span. They scored 74 points against the Spurs on March 5, and they've scored under 90 points the last four times these teams have met. In Spurs games, the under is 6-3-1 in the last ten, and the Spurs have held opponents under 80 points in four of their last six games. If they can keep the Clippers under 80 points tonight, the under should hit.
Pistons (-3) at Sonics: The Pistons are 7-3 SU (4-6 ATS) in their last ten games, as they endured a stretch of five straight losses ATS. But with road wins (SU and ATS) against the Clippers and Nuggets in the last two games, the Pistons appear to be back on track. Overall, the Pistons are 18-12 ATS on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Sonics have lost three straight games SU, and they're just 3-5-1 ATS in their last nine games. Also, the Sonics are 13-18 ATS at home. With point guard Luke Ridnour still out due to a neck problem, the Sonics could struggle with their offensive continuity.
Boston College (+11) vs. North Carolina: North Carolina won a close game, 77-72, at Boston College this year, so BC knows they can play with the Tar Heels, and they'll want a little revenge. Boston College only shot 5-18 (27.8%) from beyond the arc in that contest, so if they are closer to their normal percentage, they have a great shot at upsetting North Carolina. Neither team has been good ATS lately (1-4-1 for Boston College, compared to 2-5 for North Carolina), but I still like the double-digit points in a game that might mean more to Boston College.
Purdue (+7) vs. Ohio State: Purdue has won four in a row SU, and eight of their last nine ATS. They're still on the bubble, so a win today would secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Also, Purdue knows that they can play with the Buckeyes, as they lost by seven points at Ohio State on February 10. Although Ohio State's won 15 straight games, they're just 3-5 ATS in their last eight.
Kansas State (+10) vs. Kansas: Kansas State is a terrific 18-9 ATS this year (10-6 ATS away from home). They dominated Texas Tech yesterday with smothering defense, as they held the Red Raiders to a 32.1 FG%. Kansas State will be looking to beat their chief rival after losing to Kansas twice already this year (by nine points at Kansas State on February 19, and by 27 points at Kansas on February 7). Meanwhile, Kansas is on a roll, winning nine straight games (7-2 ATS). As a result of that streak, Kansas is assured of a #1 seed, so this game means a lot more to a Kansas State squad that's still on the bubble. A win guarantees Kansas State a spot in the Big Dance.
North Carolina State vs. Virginia Tech (-7.5): N.C. State will be playing for the third day in a row, and all five starters logged heavy minutes in the wins against Duke and Virginia. Prior to this tournament, N.C. State had lost six of eight SU (4-4 ATS), so the fatigued Wolfpack should fall back to earth against Virginia Tech's aggressive team defense. Virginia Tech has played well against ACC opponents (11-6), and they're coming off of an easy win over Wake Forest. Also, this is a revenge scenario for Virginia Tech, who lost by double digits to N.C. State twice this year (56-81 at N.C. State, and 59-70 at Virginia Tech). Virginia Tech's better than that, and coach Seth Greenberg will let them know it.
Oklahoma State vs. Texas (-2) - First Half Line: Texas is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games, but the Longhorns came out flat yesterday against Baylor. They'll make sure that they're fired up today, which should lead to a great first half. But Oklahoma State showed some staying power against Texas A&M, so I like the game line a lot less than the first-half line. Oklahoma State has used defense and depth to win their first two games of the Big 12 Tournament, and those are attributes that work better in the second half. Also, Texas demolished Oklahoma State, 83-54, in their last meeting, so the Longhorns shouldn't have problems scoring.
Oregon (+1) vs. USC: USC beat Oregon twice this year by slim margins (71-68 at USC on February 3, and 84-82 at Oregon on January 4). As a result, the red-hot Oregon Ducks (5-0 ATS and SU in their last five games) will be looking for revenge. Also, USC is coming off of two tough games (an OT win over Stanford, and a win last night over a very good Washington State squad), while Oregon had an easy time with a tired California team.
Pittsburgh vs. Georgetown (-2): These teams split games this year, with Georgetown winning by eight on February 24, and Pittsburgh winning by five on January 13. Even though Georgetown lost ATS against Notre Dame yesterday, they showed a lot of fortitude in coming back from a double-digit deficit. Also, the Hoyas are 17-3-2 ATS in their last 22 games, and they're 12-1 SU in their last 13. On the other hand, Pittsburgh is just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. Georgetown's a more efficient squad than Pittsburgh: the Hoyas shoot 50.6% while allowing opponents a 38.8 FG%; Pittsburgh shoots 47.8% while allowing opponents to shoot 40.7%. Both teams will be a little tired, so I like the team with the best interior game, and that's Georgetown.
Utah State (+4.5) vs. New Mexico State: Utah State's gone 7-3 ATS in their last ten games, including two huge wins over top-ranked Nevada. Meanwhile, New Mexico State is just 4-6 ATS in their last ten games. The teams split their meetings this year, with Utah State winning by 12 at home on February 5, and New Mexico State edging Utah State by three on February 22. This game could come down to free throws, and Utah State's the better team from the charity stripe (77.9% for Utah State, compared to 64.9% for New Mexico State).
Cal Poly SLO (+3.5) vs. Long Beach State: No, I have no idea why "SLO" is capitalized, and, honestly, I don't really care. All that matters is that Cal Poly SLO is one of the hottest mid-majors in the country, as they've gone 8-0 ATS since losing to Long Beach State, 77-80, on February 8. And since losing, 70-77, at Long Beach State on January 6, Cal Poly SLO's gone 13-2 SU. They're also 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games. Cal Poly SLO has an efficiency advantage, as they have converted 46.3% of FG attempts, while allowing opponents a 43.1 FG%. Meanwhile, Long Beach State shoots 45.7% while allowing opponents a 44.1 FG%.
NBA (55 - 48)
Knicks at Wizards (-6.5): With David Lee still out for the Knicks, they're missing his 10.7 rebounds per game and efficient 11.2 points. The Knicks are also just 4-6 ATS in their last ten games. While Washington's been even worse lately (3-7 ATS in their last ten), they're gradually re-developing chemistry among their Big Three (Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison). The Wizards lost at Atlanta on Wednesday, but they dominated the Raptors, 129-109, at home in the game before that. With two days of rest since the road loss at Atlanta, the Wizards should return to form tonight.
Sixers (+3.5) at Pacers: The Pacers have lost seven straight games SU (1-6 ATS), and they'll be missing point guard Jamaal Tinsley and superstar big man Jermain O'Neal tonight. Meanwhile, the Sixers have won six straight SU (4-0-2 ATS). They're playing the second night of a back-to-back, but they're 8-6-1 ATS in those situations.
Cavs (pick 'em) at Bucks: The Cavs have won the last five meetings in this series (4-1 ATS), and they're 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall (9-4 SU). Their only straight-up losses during this stretch have come against quality teams (at Dallas, at Miami, vs. Chicago, and at Washington). Even though the Bucks have been good since Michael Redd's return (6-3-1 ATS), the public's starting to catch on, and that's why this one's a "pick 'em." The Bucks are only 4-6 SU in their last ten games, so I like the Cavs to continue rolling.
Nets at Spurs (-11): The Nets have lost their last four games SU and ATS, and they've steadily gotten worse, losing by margins of eight points, 13 points, 13 points, and 21 points. Also, the Nets are playing the second night of a back-to-back, and they're going agains the second hottest team in the NBA, as the Spurs are on an 11-game winning streak (8-3 ATS).
Boxing
Wladimir Klitschko vs. Ray Austin (+800 to win by KO-TKO-DQ): Boxing's one of the few sports where misinformation is prevalent, as there's not enough fan interest for there to be a major media presence that siphons through all of the ####. In essence, it's difficult to separate the hype from reality. Wladimir Klitschko epitomizes this hype. Even when he got knocked out by less-skilled fighters (Corrie Sanders and Lamon Brewster), promoters said that these were just flukes, and he continues to be a heavy favorite in all of his fights. But it's not a fluke when you get knocked out as a result of having a weak chin. At 6'6", 250 lbs, Ray Austin is the type of big puncher that Klitschko should fear. While Klitschko can beat lesser punchers with his boxing skills, he's never shown that he can take a punch. Bet on Austin to win by KO because you get better odds than you would by betting on him to win in any fashion (+500). If this fight goes to a decision, Klitschko will win, as he's the superior boxer. And if Austin wins, it's going to be because he knocked out Klitschko, who yet again shows that he can't take a punch.
Villanova vs. Georgetown (-4): Georgetown won by three points in a game at Villanova on February 17, as the Hoyas' excellent defense slowed down Villanova's offensive attack. Georgetown went 12-1 SU (and an incredible 10-1-2 ATS) to close the season, with their only loss coming at Syracuse. Georgetown's offensive efficiency (50.8 FG% for the season) and stalwart defense (38.8 opponents' FG%) should be too much for a Villanova team that's playing for the second day in a row.
Oklahoma vs. Iowa State (+7.5): There's really no reason for Iowa State to get dogged like this, as Oklahoma's lost six straight games (1-5 ATS), including a 51-58 loss to the Cyclones on February 13. Iowa State's alternated wins and losses in their last six games, and they most recently came close to beating Texas Tech before falling, 61-63. Also, Oklahoma doesn't have a true point guard, and that diminishes their offense's ability to consistently penetrate the lanes.
Arizona vs. Oregon (+2): Oregon and Arizona split close games this year, with each team winning on the other's home court. But Oregon should've swept the series, as the Ducks had a ten-point halftime lead in the February 10 game at Arizona. Both squads won their last three games of the regular season, as Oregon blew out Oregon State, 70-49, while Arizona eked out an OT win at Stanford. This matchup is close, but I like Oregon's emphasis on athletic guards (Aaron Brooks, Bryce Taylor, and Tajuan Porter) over Arizona's bigger forwards (Chase Budinger and Marcus Williams). If Brooks can successfully penetrate the lanes early, Arizona will have a tough time defending the sharpshooters on the perimeter.
West Virginia vs. Louisville (-3.5): Louisville finished the regular season with six straight wins (SU and ATS), including road wins at Pittsburgh and Marquette. Also, Lousivlle has a deep bench, led by 6'9", 275 lb Derrick Caracter, who's scored over double digits in five of his last six games while only twice logging over 20 minutes. Meanwhile, West Virginia was just 4-5-1 ATS in their last ten games, and their starters played heavy minutes last night against Providence. Plus, West Virginia's shooters are bound to fall back to earth, as they shot 62.5% from beyond-the-arc in last night's win. Louisville's strong, well-rested defense (40.1 FG% allowed) will make scoring tough for West Virginia.
Stanford vs. USC - Over 128: In four of Stanford's last five games, the total has gone over, and more than 134 points were scored in those four games. Also, the total's been over in the last eight USC games, and more than 134 points were scored in seven of those contests. USC likes to run, and Stanford usually matches their opponent's tempo.
Marquette vs. Pittsburgh (-5.5): This is a revenge scenario for Pittsburgh, who lost by three and four points in their two meetings with Marquette this year. Pittsburgh will be trying to prove that they're worthy of a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, as they've recently struggled (1-6 ATS in their last seven games, including three losses SU). Still, Pittsburgh's last three losses came against tough schools (vs. Louisville, at Georgetown, and at Marquette). Meanwhile, Marquette could be tired tonight, as their starters played heavy minutes against St. John's, and they're missing guard Jerel McNeal (14.7 points, 3.8 assists, and 4.8 rebounds).
LSU vs. Tennessee (-2.5): Since Chris Lofton's return from injury, the Volunteers have posted a 7-1 record SU (4-3 ATS). They've also won their last four games (3-1 ATS), including road victories at Arkansas and Georgia. On the other hand, LSU is just 3-7 SU in their last ten games (4-5-1 ATS). Glen Davis has been nursing an injury lately, so the Tigers haven't been able to develop a winning chemistry on the court. This line seems like a bit o####ift, as the public still perceives LSU as a quality team because of last year's Final Four run.
Washington vs. Washington State - Under 129.5: Washington's played under the total in eight of their last ten games, while Washington State's been under in seven of their last eight. Also, these teams played under the total in their two meetings this year. 126 points were scored in Washington State's 65-61 win on February 14, and 122 points were scored in Washington State's 75-47 blowout of the Huskies on January 20.
NBA(50-47)
Spurs (-6.5) at Kings: Tony Parker should be back for the Spurs, who have posted a 19-14 ATS record on the road this season. Also, the Spurs have won ten straight games (8-2 ATS), and they'll be looking to extend that streak tonight against a Kings' squad that's missing its best defensive player (Ron Artest). For the season, the Kings are just 12-17-1 ATS at home. Even though they've won four straight games, those victories came against teams that are struggling (Pacers, Blazers, Lakers, and Bobcats).
Butler at Wright State (+1.5) -- Horizon League Championship: At 27-5, the Butler Bulldogs have already secured a berth in the NCAA Tourney, along with at least a #5 seed. That could be part of the reason for their late season lull, as they've lost three of their last seven games after beginning the season 23-2. Butler's also just 2-4 ATS in their last six games, and they needed overtime to beat Loyola-Chicago in the Horizon League semifinals on Saturday. Wright State's not a good matchup for Butler, as Butler's gone 1-8 ATS in their last nine head-to-head contests. Led by 5'11" senior guard DaShaun Wood, Wright State won ten of their last eleven games, with their only loss occuring against Youngstown State in the last regular-season game (when Wright State had already secured a share of the Horizon regular-season title). Wright State was a stellar 9-1-1 ATS during this span. Importantly, this is a home game for Wright State, as the Horizon League Championship is being played on the Wright State campus in Dayton, Ohio. They're 8-2-1 ATS (12-1 SU) in home games, and fans should be going crazy with the season on the line for one of the nation's hottest teams.
NBA (47 - 44)
Nets at Mavs (-11): Even though the Mavs are on a 15-game winning streak, they've dropped their last two games ATS. The last time that they lost three consecutive games ATS came in mid-December. After tonight's game, the Mavs are off until Sunday, so they'll want to leave a good impression with head coach Avery Johnson in order to earn a little extra time off from the practice court. At home, the Mavs have outscored opponents 103.2 to 90.9. Meanwhile, the Nets have suffered two straight loss SU and ATS (vs. Boston and at Philadelphia). This will be the Nets third game in four nights, and they're 0-2 ATS when dogged by eight or more points.
Hornets (+5) at Nuggets: The Nuggets will be playing without Carmelo Anthony tonight, as he attends the birth of his child. They were just 7-8 ATS during his 15-game suspension, and this is another bad time to lose him, as they've gone 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Also, the Nuggets are 14-17 ATS at home, and they're only 11-17 ATS after losing their previous game. On the other hand, the Hornets have bounced back well after losses, compiling a 17-13-1 ATS mark in those situations.
Spurs (-6) at Blazers: The Spurs have won seven straight meetings against the Blazers, and they're 5-2 ATS in those games. The Spurs are also playing terrific basketball right now, as they've won nine straight (8-1 ATS). The Spurs are 19-13 on the road, and even though they're playing the second night of a back-to-back, that shouldn't be too much of a problem, as Tim Duncan's 31 minutes was the most any Spur played last night. Eight other players logged between 20 and 30 minutes. Meanwhile, the Blazers have lost three of their last four games (SU and ATS), including home losses to the Grizzlies and Kings, and a road loss at the Sonics. The only win during this stretch came against the Bobcats, who were playing without Emeka Okafor. As 6 to 7.5 point dogs, the Blazers are 2-9 ATS, while the Spurs are 9-1 ATS as 6 to 7.5 point favorites.
Bucks (+5) at Magic: The Bucks are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games with Michael Redd in the lineup, and they're 5-1-1 ATS since hte All-Star Break. On the other hand, the Magic are just 1-7 SU (2-6 ATS) in their last eight games, and they're only 12-17-1 ATS at home. Both teams are coming off of losses, and the Bucks have a 20-16-1 ATS record in such situations, while the Magic are just 13-19 ATS.
Rockets (+3) at Cavs: With Daniel Gibson out until mid-March with a toe injury, the Cavs lack a true point guard in their lineup. The Cavs have been hot, going 8-2 ATS in their last ten games, but they're just 15-15 ATS at home for the season. Meanwhile, the Rockets are getting a big boost tonight with the return of Yao Ming from a broken tibia. The Rockets are good road team (17-12 ATS), and even though they're only 4-6 ATS in their last ten games, they're great coming off of a loss (16-6 ATS).
Warriors at Pistons (-11): The Warriors are terrible on the second night of back-to-backs, compiling a 4-12 ATS mark this season. They're also just 11-19-1 ATS on the road. While the Pistons aren't very good ATS at home (11-18), they should be able to take advantage of a tired Warriors team that's gone just 2-8 ATS in its last ten games.
Spurs (-6) at Clippers; under 175: With Tony Parker doubtful for the Spurs and Sam Cassell questionable for the Clippers, both teams could be playing without their starting point guards. That could result in these slow-paced teams slowing it down even more than usual, and that means this could be a good time to take the under, which is 34-25 in Spurs games and 33-26 in Clippers games. Regarding the actual game, the Spurs have won eight straight SU (7-1 ATS), and they're 18-13 ATS on the road. Even though the Clippers have won four of their last five games ATS, I like the superior Spurs to continue their winning ways.
NCAA Basketball (59.8 - 69)
Oklahoma State (pick 'em) at Nebraska: Nebraska could be playing without guards Ryan Anderson and Jamel White due to suspensions, and that would take 19 points out of their starting lineup. The Huskers have not been playing well lately, as they've lost four of five games SU and ATS. Three of these losses came against mediocre teams (at Colorado, vs. Iowa State, and at Baylor). Meanwhile, Oklahoma State will be getting star forward Mario Boggan back tonight, and they'd won two straight ATS prior to his one-game suspension. If Oklahoma State wants to gain some momentum heading into the conference tournament, they'll have to win tonight.
George Mason (+4.5) vs. Virginia Commonwealth -- CAA Championship: Virginia Commonwealth has lost four of their last five games ATS, as their 26-6 overall record has already guaranteed them an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. George Mason is just 18-14 overall, so they must win their conference championship to earn a berth in the Tournament. This is George Mason's fourth game in four days, but they'll be going all-out with the season on the line. Virginia Commonwealth just won't have the same sense of urgency. Here's another game (like Creighton - Southern Illinois), where the top team (Virginia Commonwealth) should just let the lesser team (George Mason) win so that the conference can have two representatives.
Santa Clara (+4) vs. Gonzaga -- WCC Championship: Neither team's guaranteed a spot in the NCAA Tournament, so this one will be a hard-fought battle. They split games this year, with Santa Clara prevailing, 84-72, at Gonzaga on February 12, and Gonzaga winning, 77-69, at Santa Clara on January 13. Santa Clara showed its defensive might last night by holding red-hot St. Mary's to 47 points on 30.5% shooting. That's no fluke, as Santa Clara has allowed opponents' a 39.8 FG% on the season. I almost recommended the moneyline, but it's hard to turn down the four points when the game could come down to the final possession.
Celtics at Nets (-6): The Nets are 3-0 ATS and SU since the trading deadline, and they've won these games by an average margin of 11.3 points. While the Celtics have won two straight (SU and ATS), this mini-streak actually leads oddsmakers to favor the Celtics more than they deserve. The Celtics are 21-9 ATS on the road, but they accumulated that record as a result of lots of double-digit lines.
Knicks at Hawks (-5): Both teams are playing the second night of back-to-backs, so the fatigue factor is neutralized. Although the Hawks are just 11-16 ATS at home, they went 2-0-1 ATS in their last three home games against good teams (Suns, Rockets, and Spurs). Meanwhile, the Knicks have lost their last four road games (SU and ATS), and three of those losses came against below-average teams (Celtics, Sixers, and Warriors).
Raptors (+5.5) at Cavs: The Raptors are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games. They lost last night, but that could bode well, as they haven't lost two in a row ATS since January 26 and 27. Also, for the moneyline people out there, the Raptors haven't lost two in a row SU since December 30 and January 3. Three other stats stand out: the Raptors are 18-12 ATS on the road, they're 8-5 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back, and they're 20-6 ATS after a loss. Although the Cavs are a good team on one day of rest (17-11 ATS), they're just 14-15 ATS at home. The Cavs have beaten the Raptors twice thi
