Georgetown vs. Ohio State (+1.5): Both teams feature physical interior presences, but Ohio State has superior guards, and that'll be the difference in this game. Also, Georgetown struggled in the transition game against North Carolina, as the Hoyas didn't take over until North Carolina began playing a half-court game. Ohio State can function in both transition and the half-court, and this versatility will lead to a Ohio State victory.
UCLA (+3.5) vs. Florida: UCLA has played flawless defense this tournament, as they've dominated every game that they've played. The same can't be said about Florida, who have had some scares recently. And the only reason they beat Oregon was Lee Humphrey's lights-out perimeter shooting, combined with Oregon's Tajuan Porter's inability to hit an outside shot. UCLA's ability to play transition defense and maintain focus for the entire 40 minutes will lead to them avenging last year's championship game loss.
Oregon (+7.5) vs. Florida: Oregon enters this Elite Eight matchup on a nine-game win streak SU, and they're 8-1 ATS over that span. Meanwhile, Florida has failed to cover the spread in their last two games, as their players don't appear to care until the chips are down with a few minutes to go. Possibly because they've already tasted the glory of a national championship, some of the fire appears to be gone from the Gators' squad. If that's the case against Oregon, then super-athletic guards Tajuan Porter and Aaron Brooks could take advantage. Florida's best players are big men, and they won't be guarding the 5'6" Porter and 6'0" Brooks. Oregon needs to make some early three pointers in order to force Florida's Al Horford and Joakim Noah away from the paint, and that will leave the lanes open for penetrating drives later in the game.
Georgetown (+4) vs. North Carolina: The Hoyas and Tar Heels have the same offensive FG% (50.3), but the Hoyas play better defense, as they allow a 38.3 FG%, while North Carolina gives up a 41.1 FG%. Georgetown's one of the few teams that can actually matchup with North Carolina's top scorers, Tyler Hansbrough (6'9", 235 lbs) and Brandon Wright (6'9", 205 lbs). 7'2" Roy Hibbert will be assigned to contain Hansbrough, and 6'8" Jeff Green will try to handle Wright. Georgetown's 12-5-1 ATS on the road, while North Carolina's just 10-10 ATS away from home.
Parlay Special - Oregon (+320) and Georgetown (+160): Both teams have a great chance of winning, and this pays out 10-1.
NBA (85 - 72)
Suns (-6.5) at Kings: The Suns have won four of six SU and ATS, and they're 20-13 ATS on the road. Meanwhile, the Kings have lost seven of their last eight games SU and ATS, and they lost by 18 points at Phoenix on Thursday night. Also, the Kings are just 13-19-1 ATS at home, and they'll likely be missing Brad Miller for the rest of the year due to a foot injury. The Kings have given up on the season, so they'll have problems matching the Suns' tempo.
Pistons (-5) at Bucks: With Charlie Villanueva and Andrew Bogut both out for the rest of the year, the Bucks are no longer a strong play. They've lost four of their last five games ATS, as they concentrate on preparing for next year. On the other hand, the Pistons are 22-13 ATS on the road, and they've won eight of their last nine ATS.
Warriors (+4) at Lakers: The Warriors have won nine of their last ten games ATS, and the only ATS loss came with Baron Davis out of the lineup. The Warriors have also shot 50.6 FG% in their last five games, while allowing opponents a 45.3 FG%. On the other hand, the Lakers have shot slightly worse (49.5 FG%) and allowed a slightly higher FG% (47.8) over that same time period. Also, the Lakers are just 1-7-1 ATS over their last nine games. Kobe Bryant's hot streak is inflating the Lakers' value right now.
Vanderbilt vs. Georgetown (-7.5): Vanderbilt doesn't have anyone who can matchup with Georgetown's 7'2" center Roy Hibbert. Forward Ross Neltner will give it a try, but he gives up five inches and 30 pounds to Georgetown's big man. Vanderbilt played well against an undersized Washington State team, but it should be a different story against Georgetown. In terms of efficiency, Georgetown is one of the best teams in the nation, as the Hoyas boast a 50.5 FG%, while allowing opponents to shoot only 38.2 FG%. They also outrebound opponents by 6 rebounds per game (rpg). On the other hand, Vanderbilt gets outrebounded by 2.2 rpg, and their offensive shooting (45.3 FG%) is barely better than what they allow opponents (44.3 FG%). Moreover, Georgetown is 19-4-2 ATS in their last 25 games.
Butler vs. Florida (-10): Both Butler and Florida hold opponents to around 40% on field goal attempts, but Florida shoots much better (52.9 FG% for Florida, compared to Butler's 43.6 FG%). Also, Florida is outstanding on three-pointers (40.2%) and perimeter defense (holding opponents to 28.7% on three-point attempts). Furthermore, Florida has three players who are likely to star in the NBA: 6'10" Al Horford, 6'9" Corey Brewer, and 6'11" Joakim Noah. They even have 6'9" Chris Richard coming off the bench. Butler's going to have an awful time trying to grab rebounds against this group, as the Bulldogs' biggest players are 6'6" Brandon Crone and 6'7" Brian Ligon. Butler was able to beat a smaller Maryland team, but that won't happen against a team that has more talent, size, and experience.
UNLV (+3.5) vs. Oregon: The Runnin' Rebels have won nine straight games SU (8-1 ATS), and they're 12-4 ATS on the road. Oregon's also been playing well lately, as they've won eight straight games SU (7-1 ATS), but they're only 8-9 ATS on the road for the season. Oregon's a streak-shooting team, as they depend on the hot hands of small guards Tajuan Porter and Aaron Brooks. Their biggest player is 6'9" Maarty Leunen, but he only weighs 215 lbs, so he could get pushed around by UNLV's Gaston Essengue (6'8", 245 lbs). Also, UNLV's top guard, Wendell White, is 6'6", so he could cause problems for Oregon's perimeter shooters. Most importantly, UNLV is very well coached by Lon Kruger, and I was impressed by their ability to beat Georgia Tech (67-63) despite shooting only 31.7%. Kruger had his team attack the basket, which earned them 27 free-throw attempts. UNLV made 21 of them, and that was the difference in the game.
USC (+8.5) vs. North Carolina: North Carolina shoots better than USC (50.7 FG% vs. 47.7 FG%), but USC has a slightly better overall defense. Also, USC is better at three-point shooting and perimeter defense. But North Carolina outrebounds opponents by 8.5 rpg, while USC only outrebounds opponents by 0.3 rpg. Despite North Carolina's advantage in the interior, I like USC's chances because of their experienced guards: junior Nick Young, junior Gabe Pruitt, and senior Lodrick Stewart. Meanwhile, North Carolina depends on three freshmen for much of their scoring. Also, USC was 13-5 ATS on the road this year, while North Carolina was only 9-10 ATS. Even though North Carolina will likely prevail, USC should be able to cover the spread.
NBA (82-70)
Heat (-2.5) at Pacers: The Heat have won ten of their last 11 games SU (9-2 ATS), and they're 19-13-1 ATS on the road this season. Also, in their last five games, they've shot a 46.5 FG%, while allowing opponents a 43.0 FG%. Over the same time period, the Pacers have shot just 42.8%, while allowing opponents to shoot 44.2%. Also, the Pacers could be missing Jermaine O'Neal tonight, and even if he does play, he's not close to 100%. The Pacers are 1-12 SU in their last 13 games (4-9 ATS), so I have no idea why the Heat are favored by less than three points in this one.
Mavs (-8.5) at Celtics: The Celtics are just 9-23-1 ATS at home this season, and top scorer Paul Pierce is questionable tonight due to injuries to his face and elbow. Because the Celtics really want Kevin Durant (see: Danny Ainge's thinner wallet), they might shut down Pierce for the rest of the year in order to ensure that they lose the rest of their games. Meanwhile, the Mavs are gearing up for the playoffs, and they're 18-12-2 ATS on the road this season. Considering that a Mavs' win is in the best interests of both clubs, it's hard not to lay the points.
Jazz (-2) at Clippers: The Jazz have lost five straight games ATS, and four of their last five SU. But they've won their last three SU and ATS against the Clippers, and the Jazz had a comeback win against the Warriors on Tuesday night that could serve as a springboard for the rest of their season. Also, this line was initially set so low because there were questions about whether Mehmet Okur will play tonight for the Jazz, but he travelled with the team, so he's now probable. Although the Clippers have won five of their last six games ATS, this is their third game in four nights, and they're just 14-20-2 ATS when playing on one day of rest. Meanwhile, the Jazz are 6-3-2 ATS on two days of rest.
Warriors at Wizards (-8.5): The Warriors have lost six straight games ATS, and they've lost by an average margin of 16.6 points over their current three-game road trip. They're also just 10-19-1 ATS on the road for the season. While the Wizards aren't much better at home (11-17-2 ATS), both Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison returned from injury on Friday night, which means that the Wizards are getting healthier for the stretch run. They were just 4-9 ATS during Jamison's absence, so getting him back into the flow of the game is important.
Bulls at Bucks (-1.5): Even though the Bulls have been terrific since the All-Star Break (6-1 ATS), they're still just 9-19-1 ATS on the road for the season. Meanwhile, the Bucks are one of the hottest teams in basketball, as Michael Redd's return injected renewed life into them (5-0-1 ATS with Redd back in lineup). In the last ten home games with Redd, the Bucks are 9-1 ATS and SU. The only SU loss came by one point against the Pistons in Redd's first game back from injury. This team is screaming "VALUE!!!" and it's not going to last much longer.
Lakers at Suns (-10): The Lakers are only 3-6-1 ATS in their last ten games, and they'll have difficulties today with Lamar Odom out due to a shoulder injury. It's a bad time to have depth problems, as the Suns' high-energy style causes players to tire more quickly than usual. The Suns are 5-2 ATS since Steve Nash's return from injury. On average, they've outscored opponents by ten points at home, while the Lakers get outscored by almost two points on the road.
Jazz (-1.5) at Hornets: The Jazz are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games with Deron Williams in the lineup, and they're 16-12 ATS on the road. Although the Hornets are a respectable 18-11-1 ATS at home, they've lost three of their last four games ATS.
Nets (+2.5) at Sixers: The Nets are 15-11-1 ATS on the road, while the Sixers are 12-15-1 ATS at home. The Nets are also coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Celtics, and they could erase that memory with a good showing in this winnable game.
NCAA Basketball (56.8 - 67)
Kentucky at Florida (-8.5): I really, really wanted to recommend the Kentucky moneyline, but this one has Gator blowout written all over it. Kentucky's just 5-7-1 ATS on the road, and they're facing a Florida team that's been criticized all week for its poor showing at Tennessee. Also, this is Florida's last regular-season home game, and it's senior day. That means that both the fans and players should be psyched. And Florida played well in the final 15 minutes at Tennessee, so they're obviously still capable of playing high-caliber basketball.
Clemson at Virginia Tech (-6.5): Clemson's fallen off the map in the last eight games, going just 1-6-1 ATS. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech had won four of fives games ATS before losing to Virginia on Thursday. Also, I listened to their coach, Seth Greenberg, on the radio yesterday, and he sounded like he wasn't sure if Virginia Tech had yet earned an at-large bid. He's wrong, but as long as he feels that way, his team will be playing like it's season's on the line.
Creighton (+2) vs. Southern Illinois -- Missouri Valley Championship: Southern Illinois beat Creighton twice this year, by scores of 72-68 and 58-57. Creighton will look to avenge those close losses, and they also have an NCAA Tournament berth on the line. At 27-5 overall, Southern Illinois is already in, so it might actually be a nice gesture to just let Creighton win, as that would assure the MVC of two teams in the Tourney. I'm joking -- well, kind of.
Boston College (+280) at Georgia Tech: After losing three straight games to tough schools (Duke, UNC, and Virginia Tech), Boston College got back on the winning track with a home win over Clemson on February 24, and they've had a week to rest since that game. Meanwhile, the sloppy Yellow Jackets tried to let North Carolina back into the game on Thursday before finally closing it out, 84-77. They'll suffer a letdown today against a fresher, more intense Boston College.
St. Mary's vs. Santa Clara (+1.5) -- WCC Semis: At 20-9 overall, Santa Clara must win the WCC championship to earn an NCAA bid. They've shown that they can beat their conference opponents (10-4 record in WCC play), and they haven't played since Monday. On the other hand, St. Mary's just played last night, so they could be slightly tired against a better opponent.
Wizards at Nets (-4.5): The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games with Jason Kidd in the lineup. Now that the trade deadline has passed, he and Vince Carter can concentrate on making a playoff push. On the other hand, the Wizards are beat up right now, with Caron Butler being the most recent injury victim (back spasms). Butler, who is the Wizards' most productive player in terms of win production, is questionable tonight. Also, Gilbert Arenas' shoulder is sore, and Antawn Jamison is still out. When your three stars are hurting, it's hard to win games.
Suns (-6) at Pacers: The Suns are 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) since Steve Nash's return from a shoulder injury. They've scored 115 or more points in each of those contests, and they're 17-12 ATS on the road for the season (22-7 SU). Meanwhile, the Pacers are just 14-15 ATS at home, and they've suffered two straight losses SU and ATS. The Pacers gave up 110 points in both of those games, and they've surrendered over 100 points in their last four games, which indicates that there are problems with the Pacers' defense. That's a recipe for disaster when the high-octane Suns are coming into town.
Mavs (-4.5) at Timberwolves: The Mavs are now on pace to win 68.5 games, but if you only look at their performance since an 0-4 start, they're actually on pace to win 70.5 games. That means that they're one of the best teams in NBA regular-season history, so you've got to love this line against the mediocre Timberwolves. The Mavs are 14-10-2 ATS on the road, and they're 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. Although Josh Howard might be out tonight, the Mavs should still cover against a Timbewolves' team that's just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games, including three straight ATS losses at home.
Warriors at Bucks (-6): The Bucks are 3-0-1 ATS since Michael Redd's return (4-0 ATS in regulation, as they ended up pushing a game against the Pacers that went into overtime). In the 20 games prior to Redd's injury, the Bucks were 14-6 ATS, so they're actually 17-6-1 ATS over the last 24 games with Redd in the lineup. The Warriors also recently got a "star" player back with Jason Richardson's return from injury, but his 38.2% field-goal percentage might hurt a team that already has too many volume shooters. The Warriors are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten games, and they're 10-16-1 ATS on the road.
NCAA Basketball (44.4 - 54)
Michigan State (-1) at Michigan: Michigan State has won four straight games SU and ATS. Even though these were all home games, the Spartans beat some quality teams (Indiana and Wisconsin). Tonight's an important game for Michigan State, as they're 8-6 in the Big Ten, while Michigan is 7-7. A win for Michigan State would get them a first-round bye in next week's Big Ten Tournament. Meanwhile, Michigan is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games, and they could only muster 44 points against Michigan State's superior defense a couple weeks ago. Michigan State should complete the sweep tonight, as the Spartans shoot and defend better than the Wolverines.
West Virgnia (+340) at Pittsburgh: Statistical research reveals that Pittsburgh should easily win this game, as West Virginia hasn't beaten a quality team on the road this year. Also, Pittsburgh's coming off a loss at Georgetown, so it should be psyched to rebound with a home win. But this game means so much more to West Virginia that I have to recommend the +340 moneyline. A late-season road win at Pittsburgh would improve West Virginia's RPI and possibly convince the Tournament committee that the Mountaineers are worthy of an at-large bid. West Virginia can go on three-point shooting tears, so an upset's not out of the question. Also, even though Pittsburgh is coming off of a loss, they don't have much to play for, as they're already guaranteed a first-round bye in the Big East Tournament and a high seed in the Big Dance.
Florida (-3) at Tennessee: Florida has lost two of its last three games, with both losses occurring on the road. This might have been a result of complacency, as the Gators have already clinched the SEC regular-season title and a first-round bye in the SEC tournament. However, those losses should have led head coach Billy Donovan to light a fire underneath his team, as the Gators are no longer a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, according to the latest Bracketology reports. Moreover, Tennessee doesn't play very good defense (45.4 FG% allowed), while Florida has a terrific 52.7 FG%. And Florida outrebounds opponents 36.5 to 28.6, while Tennessee gets outrebounded 35.0 to 36.8. The line is generous in this one because Florida has lost its last five games ATS, so I'd take advantage of one of the rare times when you get value by betting on the defending national champs.
Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-2.5): Oklahoma State has lost four straight games, and six of their last seven. That includes two straight losses at home. For the sake of the basketball program (and poor Sean Sutton's life as the head coach), this is an essential game for Oklahoma State. They must gain some momentum before the Big 12 Tournament, which they might have to win in order to earn a berth in the real Tournament. But all hope isn't lost, as Oklahoma State could conceivably end its regular season on a three-game winning streak, considering that their final two opponents are Baylor and Nebraska. However, those wins would mean a lot less if Oklahoma State can't win a home game against Kansas State tonight. Meanwhile, this game is much less important for Kansas State, as they're almost assured of a first-round bye in the Big 12 Tournament, and they're likely in line for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tourney. Also, Kansas State has lost the subsequent game after each of their last three wins, and they're coming off of a win over Colorado on Saturday. We'll see if that trend continues tonight.
Georgetown (-1.5) at Villanova: Yes, I know that I'm advocating underdog moneylines, but I can't pass up on the hottest team in the country. Georgetown poses nightmare matchup problems with 7'2" Roy Hibbert and 6'9" Jeff Green. These monsters in the middle force opposing offenses to rely on the outside shot, while Georgetown gets a lot of easy baskets in the low post on the other end. Hibbert's scored 20 or more points in four of the last five games, and he's shooting a remarkable 70.6% from the field. Villanova's 6'9" Dante Cunningham is their biggest man who sees playing time, and he's giving up five inches against Hibbert. Also, Georgetown has been on a roll lately, winning its last 8 games SU, and going 7-0-1 ATS during this span. The last time that Georgetown lost ATS was a home game against Villanova on January 8, when Villanova prevailed by a four-point margin. Hibbert didn't take a shot in that game, as Georgetown is a completely different team this time around. Look for the Hoyas to exact revenge on Villanova's home floor.
Florida State (+220) at Virginia: With an uspet win at Duke on February 4, Florida State showed that it can win on the road. The Seminoles have stumbled a bit lately, losing all three games SU since the Duke upset, but that could lead to them being extremely focussed against a beatable Virginia squad. After getting blown out by 27 points at Virginia Tech, Virginia's confidence could be somewhat shaken. This is one of those toss-up games where you're best off in the long run by taking the 2-1 odds.
Florida at Vanderbilt (+230): Vanderbilt's very tough at home, where they're currently on a six-game winning streak (12-3 SU overall at home this season). Also, Vanderbilt's defeat of a very talented Alabama squad shows that they can probably hang with Florida's athletes. Moreover, Vanderbilt's one of the few teams with big enough starters to matchup against Florida's lineup. Of course, Florida's a terrific team, but this is a trap game for them, as losing would matter very little to their overall season. Actually, Billy Donovan probably needs his team to lose sometime soon in order to light a fire under them prior to the Tournament. On the other hand, Vanderbilt's home crowd will treat this one like it's a national title game. With all the intangibles going toward Vanderbilt, this is a good moneyline to hit.
UCLA (pick 'em) at Arizona: This one seems pretty easy, as Arizona's shown its true colors lately, going 4-6 SU in their last ten games, including a home loss to USC that creates some negative momentum. Meanwhile, UCLA will be looking to put together a complete game, as the Bruins narrowly edged a mediocre Arizona State squad on Thursday. Both teams will fight for this one, but UCLA's superior talent will be the difference.
Washington (+600) at Pittsburgh: Washington's a dismal 1-7 SU on the road, but they've shown some life away from their home confines recently by winning at Arizona State, taking California to overtime, and losing by a point at Stanford. Pittsburgh's a good team, but home losses to Louisville and Marquette show that they're beatable at home. And with two freshmen and two sophomores in the Washington lineup, they're a team with a higher ceiling than Pittsburgh, whose lineup is dominated by juniors and seniors. Even though Washington's 6' 7" Jon Brockman is giving up 5 inches to Pittsburgh C Aaron Gray, Brockman's Barkley-esque style could cause Gray problems inside. And Washington's 6' 11" C Spencer Hawes provides a low-post scoring presence for the Huskies. Also, Washington nearly beat Washington State, one of the best teams in the country, on Wednesday. Considering that the Pac-10 might be tougher than the Big East this year, I like Washington's chances in this one.
Iowa (+270) at Michigan State: Iowa's gone 7-5 against Big Ten opponents, while Michigan State's only 5-6. Also, Michigan State has lost four of its last five games, while Iowa's won four of its last five. Both teams realy on streak shooters (Adam Haluska for Iowa and Drew Neitzel for Michigan State), so this is another toss-up game where the underdog moneyline gives you the best return in the long run.
I'll be back at around 2:30 pm with afternoon and evening picks.
As an amateur sports handicapper, I'm going to publish my analysis and picks for free. This forum provides me an easy method of keeping track of my handicapping record. Plus, if my picks are above 52.5% correct (above 50% on baseball moneylines), then I'm helping people beat the sportsbooks, and that's all the reward I need.
Here are my records from each sport:
NFL: 122-95 (56%)
NBA: 119-100 (54%)
College Basketball: 102.8-112 (48%)
MLB: 76.7-67.3 (53%)
