Magic at Bobcats - Over 194.5: In the seven games since Emeka Okafor's injury, the Bobcats have given up an average of 115.43 points. The over is 6-1 in that time span. The Magic's defense hasn't been very good either lately, as they've allowed 100 or more points in four of their last six games. Also, the Magic have allowed opponents to shoot 47.4% in their last five games, and the Bobcats are even worse, allowing opponents a 52.2 FG%. Basically, Okafor was the Bobcats' only defensive presence in the low-post, so driving to the basket is an easy way to score points now that he's out. Slashing Magic point guard Jameer Nelson should exploit this matchup with easy layups and dishes to center Dwight Howard.
Raptors (+4.5) at Bucks: The Raptors have lost three of their last six games SU, and they've suffered five straight losses ATS. But their recent play can be attributed to chemistry problems, as they've endured starting guard Anthony Parker's injury, along with Andrea Bargnani's absence for personal reasons. All the pieces are now back in the lineup, so the talented Raptors should be gearing up for a late-season run. They're playing the second night of a back-to-back, but they've gone 8-7 ATS in those situations. The Raptors are 18-14 ATS on the road, and they'll be looking to avenge a home loss to the Bucks that occurred on March 2. The Raptors shot just 36.8% from the field in that one, so they should cover if they approach their usual FG%. Meanwhile, the Bucks are 1-3 ATS in their last four games.
Rockets at Suns (-6): The Suns have lost their last three games ATS, so the oddsmakers are favoring them slightly less than usual. They've had two days' rest since their near loss to the Hornets on Friday, and that should serve as a wakeup call for a team that needs to start rolling as the playoffs approach. The Suns have won their last five meetings with the Rockets SU and ATS, and they beat the Rockets by 11 at home in November before Yao Ming's injury. The Rockets could tire out tonight against the up-tempo Suns, as the Rockets are playing on the second night of a back-to-back, and Yao's conditioning is still suspect.
Dwight Howard / Magic (5-1) Standing in at 6' 11"and weighing 268 lbs., Howard could become the largest player to ever win the contest. While he leads the league in dunks(158), most expect his size to be a detriment. Howard will be challenged to display more creativity than the smaller contestants in order to impress the judges and fans, leading to the 5-1 line. Unfortunately for him, his request to raise the rim was denied by the NBA yesterday, so he won't be able to do the routine he had originally planned. This clearly had an impact on the 5-1 line. When you couple that with his height disadvantage (strange, you don't hear that phrase used often on somebody almost 7 ft. tall), he's the clear outsider & the riskiest play.
Gerald Green/Celtics (4-7) The favorite. While the Celtics were on an 18-game losing binge and Paul Pierce was out with an injury, there were still some good things happening for Boston fans. Pierce, one of the league's best passers, has been spending lots and lots of time practicing dunk routines with Green over the last few months. If you got in early like me, you could have had Green at 2-3 odds. The current 4-7 line isn't terrible, but it might be smarter to wait until right before the contest to see if it gets back to a more favorable number. If the 2-3 line reappears, it's certainly worth jumping on.
Nate Robinson/Knicks (3-1) At 5' 9", Robinson is the reigning champ. Who remembers his dunk over Spud Webb last year? Yeah, that was totally ridiculous. But was that the plateau of his creativity? I can't imagine what could possibly out-do last year's performance. Then again, his recent 10 game suspension for his role in the December 16th fight may have provided him with extra time to practice, so maybe not.
Tyrus Thomas/Bulls (3-1) Thomas found himself wrapped up in a media frenzy last week after commenting that he was participating in the dunk contest solely for financial reasons. "I'm just into the free money. That's it. I'll just do whatever when I get out there." Those aren't the type of inspiring words you look for in a player going into the contest. Should that totally dissuade you from taking him at 3-1? Yes, by all means. You can partially forgive him since he's only 20 and obviously hasn't learned the art of tact, but still, why would you want your money anywhere near him?
As an amateur sports handicapper, I'm going to publish my analysis and picks for free. This forum provides me an easy method of keeping track of my handicapping record. Plus, if my picks are above 52.5% correct (above 50% on baseball moneylines), then I'm helping people beat the sportsbooks, and that's all the reward I need.
Here are my records from each sport:
NFL: 122-95 (56%)
NBA: 119-100 (54%)
College Basketball: 102.8-112 (48%)
MLB: 76.7-67.3 (53%)