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Selections - 2/18/2007
Feb 18, 2007 | 8:54AM | report this

Yesterday: 7.9 - 10

Overall: 44.7 - 39

College Basketball (25.7 - 28)

Duquesne (+280) at Fordham: Although Duquesne's overall record is a mediocre 10-13, they're 5-3 since instituting the 10/40, which is a running offense where ten players sprint for 40 minutes. During this eight-game stretch under the new style of play, Duquesne is 5-0 when they score more than 90 points. Much like the Phoenix Suns of the NBA, this type of playing style is so much more up-tempo than what opponents normally see that it causes adjustment problems. Prior to instituting the new system, Duquesne lost to Fordham, 59-71, on January 14, so they'll be looking for revenge today. Also, Fordham has lost four straight games, including two at home, and they've only averaged 54 points in those four losses.

Georgia Tech (+290) at Duke: Georgia Tech's decent 17-8 overall record is somewhat marred by a 1-6 mark on the road, but the lone win came on Tuesday at Florida State. That upset victory gives Georgia Tech the confidence that it can win on the road, and confidence is important for a young team led by freshmen stars Javaris Crittendon and Thaddeus Young. Georgia Tech has also won four straight games, and this could be one of those young teams that's getting ready to make a Tournament run. On the other hand, Duke has struggled lately, losing four straight, including two home losses, before winning at Boston College last Wednesday. During the last few weeks, Duke's been exposed for its lack of an athletic, go-to scorer. This game is important for both teams' chances at earning at-large Tournament bids, so expect to see a lot of hustle and emotional play. In such an atmosphere, the better athletes usually win, so I like Georgia Tech.

Notre Dame (-6) at Cincinnati: While Notre Dame has struggled since Kyle McAlarney's suspension, the Fighting Irish are still 19-6 overall. Also, even though they've recently lost on the road to DePaul, South Florida, and St. John's, all three games were competitive, and Notre Dame's 103-91 win at Syracuse on January 30 showed that they can upset Big East competition away from home. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has struggled, going 10-15 overall, and the Bearcats are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games. During that time span, they've managed just one win SU. At home, Cincinnati has lost three straight games SU and ATS (losing by 9 nine points to St. John's, 16 points to Louisville, and 16 points to Pittsburgh). The intangibles are also in Notre Dame's favor, as this game is critical for an at-large Tournament berth for the Fighting Irish, while Cincinnati has no shot at making it to the Big Dance.

Virginia Tech at North Carolina State (+210): Coming off Tuesday's overtime road win at North Carolina, Virginia Tech must fight off a possible letdown, as that win probably guaranteed them an NCAA Tournament bid. Meanwhile, the younger N.C. State lineup needs to build up some momentum heading into the ACC tournament, as they might need a conference championship in order to extend their season. N.C. State is only 13-11 overall this season, but they're 11-6 at home. And while they've gone 3-7 in their last ten games, they've beaten North Carolina at home and Virginia Tech on the road during this span. N.C. State should come out on a mission today, as they've lost three straight games, including a 15-point home loss to Maryland last Wednesday. If 6' 8" freshman forward Brandon Costner and 6' 9" sophomore forward Ben McCauley bring their "A" games, this should be a highly competitive game.

Maryland (+160) at Clemson: Clemson has been in a bit of funk lately, losing four of five and six of eight. Most recently, they lost at Wake Forest, 65-67, and that won't do much for their confidence considering Wake's below-average performance this season. Maryland will be looking to sweep Clemson after winning 92-87 at home earlier in the year. Maryland is coming off two straight road wins, and they've been boosted by the recent improvement of freshman point guard Grievis Vasquez.

NBA Basketball (19 - 11)

East vs. West - Over 256: This prediction is based purely on life experience. For some reason, a few handicappers are predicting that the score will go under 256 because of the hangover factor. The theory goes that players have been up all night partying, so they'll stumble through the game in dazed fashion. I agree that the players will be tired, but the effect will be on defense, not offense. Defense takes more energy, and hangovers will lead the stars to save their energies for the offensive end. As a result, the stars will put forth even less energy at defense than usual (if that's even possible), so scorers will find easy lanes to the basket, where they'll finish with magnificent dunks. The Sophomores scored 155 points in the Rookie game, which lasts only 40 minutes (compared to the 48 minute All-Star game). That score foreshadowed the offensive showing that will occur Sunday night. The over seems pretty safe, as both squads should score over 130 points.


4 Comments | Add a comment   categories: NCAA BB, basketball, betting, Duquesne, Fordham, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Duke Blue Devils, Maryland Terrapins, Clemson Tigers, NBA, All-Star Game, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State
 
Selections - 2/7/2007
Feb 07, 2007 | 11:27AM | report this

Yesterday: 2-3

Today's Picks:

NBA

Spurs (-4) at Wizards: The well-rested Spurs last played on Thursday, and they'll be eager to put their first-half lull behind them. Although the Spurs are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10, the injury to Wizards F Antawn Jamison could cause a matchup problem against Tim Duncan.

Magic at Raptors (-5.5): The Magic's 3-7 ATS in their last 10 isn't good, and they're playing the second night of a back-to-back.  Grant Hill's injury is starting to catch up with them, as it's hard to make up for the loss of his 53% field-goal shooting. With T.J. Ford back, the Raptors are quickly becoming the best team in the East. Since his return, they're 3-0, and have beaten their opponents by an average of 14.3 points.

Heat (-8.5) at Celtics: While the Celtics are a respectable 16-7 ATS on the road, they're an awful 4-18-1 ATS at home. The addition of Shaq to the Heat's lineup makes them a formidable squad, so you've got to like the single-digit line in this one.

College

Boston College (-4.5) at Miami: Miami is just 3-7 ATS in the last 10, and they're under .500 overall at home. Also, Miami F Raymond Hicks was suspended today, so the Hurricane frontcourt will be undermanned. Meanwhile, Boston College is coming off of a momentum-building home win over a tough Virginia Tech squad, and they've won 8 of their last 10 games straight-up. The Hurricanes, on the other hand, have lost 8 of their last 10.

Florida State at Clemson (-4): Situationally, I like this one since FSU is ripe for a letdown after Sunday's  upset win at Duke, while Clemson is coming off a road loss. FSU is 6-4 ATS in its last 10, but they're only 3-5 overall on the road. And while Clemson's only 4-6 ATS in their last 10, they've played some very good teams (North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, and Georgia Tech). Plus, Clemson beat FSU 68-66 at FSU a month ago, so they should do better at home.

Michigan St. (+2) at Purdue: Michigan State played three tough games in the last week (Ohio State twice and Illinois), and even though they lost them all, each contest was close. I expect that big-game experience to be the difference in this one.  Both teams are 5-5 ATS in their last ten.

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (-5.5): In their last 7 games, Oklahoma State is only 1-5-1 ATS, while Oklahoma is 5-1-1. Plus, Oklahoma lost at Oklahoma State in a close game last month, and I like Oklahoma to exact revenge against an increasingly unimpressive Oklahoma State squad. Losing to a bad Colorado team on Saturday proves that Oklahoma's State strong start was a mirage.

North Carolina at Duke (+175): While UNC has been playing better than Duke lately, this is a rivalry game that means more to Duke than it does to North Carolina. Since Duke has a good shot at winning the game, it's a smart idea to take the moneyline and hope for the best. (Note: In keeping track of my record with underdog moneyline picks, a loss counts as a loss, while a win is equal to the odds.  So, for example, if Duke wins this game, I will count that as 1.75 wins.  I don't make moneyline recommendations on favorites, so we don't have to worry about that situation).

USC (+9.5) at UCLA: USC is 7-3 ATS in its last 10, including 3-1 on the road. The Trojans could be a tough test for UCLA, who are coming off two blowout wins. Plus, USC built up some momentum with its big win at home over Oregon on Saturday.

Add a comment   categories: Handicapping, Sports Betting, Duke, North Carolina, NBA, NCAA BB, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Boston College, Clemson Tigers, Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, Orlando Magic, Toronto Raptors, San Antonio Spurs, Washington Wizards
 
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ABOUT ME


Chrispi
As an amateur sports handicapper, I'm going to publish my analysis and picks for free. This forum provides me an easy method of keeping track of my handicapping record. Plus, if my picks are above 52.5% correct (above 50% on baseball moneylines), then I'm helping people beat the sportsbooks, and that's all the reward I need. Here are my records from each sport: NFL: 122-95 (56%) NBA: 119-100 (54%) College Basketball: 102.8-112 (48%) MLB: 76.7-67.3 (53%)
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