MLB (74.7 - 62.8)

Rockies (Fogg) at Mets (Pelfrey) -1.5 runs (+110): Josh Fogg has pitched poorly this year (6.61 ERA, 1.84 WHIP), and the following Mets have pounded him in the past: Shawn Green (10-for-31, 5 2B), Moises Alou (10-for-27, 1 HR), Paul Lo Duca (10-for-21, 2 2B), Carlos Beltran (8-for-19, 1 3B), Carlos Delgado (6-for-12), and Jose Valentin (3-for-7, 1 HR). Opposing starter Mike Pelfrey hasn't pitched consistently well this year (10.2 IP, 6 ER, 12 H, 6 BB, 5 K). However, he has immense potential, and he should be serviceable against a Rockies' offense that hasn't been able to hit much this season. The Rockies rank last in the National League in slugging percentage and 12th in runs scored. Meanwhile, the Mets are first in slugging percentage and second in runs scored.

Brewers (Sheets) +110 at Cubs (Lilly): After a good opening-day start, Ben Sheets gave up 12 earned runs over his next two starts. But he rebounded with a solid outing against the Astros last week, and his 1.15 WHIP for the season shows that it's tough for opposing hitters to reach base against him. Among Cubs' hitters, only Derrek Lee has had consistent success (17-for-46, 2 2Bs, 7 HR). Aramis Ramirez (12-for-55), Jacque Jones (2-for-13), and Cesar Izturis (2-for-24) have all struggled against the Brewers' ace. Although Cubs' starter Ted Lilly has been one of their lone bright spots this year (26 IP, 2.42 ERA, 0.77 WHIP), he's due for a bad outing. Last year, Lilly had a 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 181.2 IP, and I expect his numbers to be closer to that by the end of this season, with a moderate improvement due to the switch to the pitcher-friendly NL. Also, the Brewers have won four straight games, so it'll be hard for the Cubs, who are losers of three straight, to break through today.

Red Sox (Schilling) -130 at Orioles (Cabrera): Against Curt Schilling, the only Orioles with success are Aubrey Huff (11-for-43, 5 2B, 1 HR), Chris Gomez (10-for-33, 1 HR), and Miguel Tejada (7-for-20, 3 2B). Everyone else in their lineup has struggled to hit him. Schilling should put an end to the Red Sox' modest two-game losing streak today, as he's been good this year: 26 IP, 11 ER, 24 H, 5 BB, 20 K. Meanwhile, opposing starter Daniel Cabrera has shown improvement with his control: 26.3 IP, 12 ER, 28 H, 7 BB, 26 K. Last year, he walked 104 batters in 148 innings, so this season's decline in walks indicates that he's finally learning to pitch. But the fact is that Cabrera is still learning, and he's getting hit more than in the past as a result of his desire to avoid walks. The Red Sox boast dangerous hitters who make great contact on pitches that get too much of the strike zone, so I expect Cabrera to have a tough time tonight. And Schilling should hold the Orioles to few enough runs for the Red Sox to grind out a victory.

Braves (Hudson) -150 at Marlins (Olsen): Tim Hudson has been terrific this season: 29 IP, 2 ER, 16 H, 11 BB, 19 K. He beat the Marlins on April 15, allowing six hits and a run in seven innings. This is actually a rematch of that game, as Scott Olsen got ####ed up for five runs on six hits in just 2.2 innings. Olsen's been struglging with his control this year: 18 IP, 15 ER, 22 H, 15 BB, 10 K. Since he hasn't shown any signs of coming out of his funk, the Braves are a good play today.

Blue Jays (Burnett) at Yankees (Pettitte) -1.5 runs (-110): Andy Pettitte has been a warrior this year, as he's started four games and pitched in relief twice in order to save an overworked Yankees' bullpen. Pettitte's put up solid numbers in his outings (25.3 IP, 5 ER, 24 H, 9 BB, 13 K), and he'll be looking to break the Yankees' five-game losing streak today. Meanwhile, A.J. Burnett has been inconsistent this year (21 IP, 13 ER, 18 H, 13 BB, 14 K), which doesn't bode well against the Yankees' powerful lineup. Both teams have hit the opposing starter in the past, but I expect Pettitte to get the better of this matchup today in the pressure-filled environs of Yankee Stadium.

Devil Rays (Jackson) at Angels (Lackey) -1.5 runs (-120): The Los Angeles Angels (10-10) open up a two-game set tonight at home against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (9-10). Although their records are almost identical, the Angels are superb at home (9-3). The Halos will give the ball to their ace, John Lackey (2-2, 2.55 ERA), who revels in chewing up the Devil Rays and spitting them out. The tall Texan is 6'1" with a 2.61 ERA against Tampa Bay. Tonight's starter for the D-Rays is the unpredictable Edwin Jackson (0-2, 6.75 ERA). Although Jackson was once considered a top pitching prospect, he's fallen victim to a lack of command. Tonight, he faces a lineup that will make you pay dearly for any mistakes. The Angels' Vladimir Guerrero has been knocking the cover off the ball this past week to the tune of nine hits in his last 18 AB.

Tigers (Durbin) at White Sox (Danks) Over 10.5 runs: To say the Tigers' Chad Durbin (0-1, 10.54 ERA) has been bad this year would be a gross understatement. Durbin has yet to make it out of the 5th inning in each of his 3 starts and has allowed a whopping 20 hits in just under 14 innings. Even more frightening than Durbin's numbers this year are his career numbers against the White Sox (1-6, 10.26 ERA). The White Sox' John Danks (0-2, 5.06 ERA) has been marginally better than Durbin this year, but couldn't find his way out of the fourth inning last Friday when he faced Detroit. In that contest, Danks allowed six hits and four runs in 4.2 innings. Both the Tigers and the White Sox have some huge bats (Paul Konerko, Magglio Ordonez, et al.) that will likely knock these two struggling pitchers out before the 5th inning. Expect a slugfest tonight at US Cellular Field.

NBA (118 - 98)

Wizards at Cavs -11.5: Without their top scorer (Gilbert Arenas) and most productive player (Caron Butler), the Wizards are pretty much dead on arrival in this series. 11.5 points is a lot, but the Wizards' 36.5 FG% in Game 1 wasn't a fluke, as they just don't have anyone who can consistently put the ball in the hoop against a quality team.

Nuggets (+8.5) at Spurs: The Nuggets are too good to be getting this many points. Although the Spurs should bounceback in Game 2 to even the series, this game's going to be relatively close, unless the Nuggets just have an awful shooting night. Nene and Marcus Camby appear capable of causing problems for the Spurs' interior game, as the Spurs were forced into too many jumpshots in Game 1, and they only got to the free-throw line ten times. Meanwhile, the Nuggets took the ball to the rim, and they were rewarded with 25 free-throw attempts.

Warriors at Mavs (-9): In Game 1, the Mavs shot only 35%, compared to the Warriors 42%. The Warriors aren't known for their defense, so the Mavs' poor-shooting night appears to be a bit of a fluke. For the season, the Mavs shot 46.2%, and they should come close to that tonight. Also, the Mavs will be deadset on avenging the embarrassing Game 1 loss, so this one should be a blowout.

Yesterday: 

MLB: 6.4 - 0 (Yay for the Blog Parlay!!!)

MLB (33 - 18.4)

Mariners (Hernandez) +160 at Red Sox (Daisuke):  In what will surely be the most-watched game of the young 2007 season, the Mariners send 21-year-old ace Felix Hernandez to the mound against Japanese pitching dynamo Daisuke Matsuzaka.  From an offensive standpoint, Boston is the clear favorite here.  However, this game has the makings of a top-notch pitching duel.  Hernandez was exceptional in his first start of the year.  Facing Oakland, he struck out 12 in eight innings and limited the A's to only three hits on his way to an easy win.  Daisuke also had a stellar debut as he mowed down the Royals, giving up only six hits and one run while fanning ten batters in seven strong innings en route to a win.  There's an added element of intrigue to this game, as it will pair Japan's two most-renowned exports, Ichiro Suzuki and Daisuke.  Yesterday, Ichiro cryptically told the Seattle Times, "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul.  I plan to face him with the zeal of a challenger."  Playing in a contract year, it sounds like Ichiro is ready for battle.  There is certainly value in the Mariners today, as this should be a low-scoring affair that either team could win.

Tigers (Verlander) -130 at Orioles (Loewen):  Today's Tigers-Orioles rubber-game features two of the most heralded young pitchers in the American League.  Justin Verlander took a no-decision in his season debut vs. Kansas City, as he was the victim of a lack of run support.  Today, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year faces an Orioles' lineup that he dominated last season.  In 31 at-bats against Verlander, the Orioles managed only one extra-base-hit, two RBIs, and no longballs.  The Orioles best hitter, Miguel Tejada, is off to a terrible start this year, going 8-for-32 with only three RBIs.  The Tigers will be facing Adam Loewen for the first time.  Although they haven't done well as a team vs. left-handed pitchers so far this year, they did manage an RBI every 7.5 ABs last year against southpaws.  If they can continue that trend today, they should score enough runs to stifle the offensively-challenged Orioles.

Yankees (Mussina) -150 at Twins (Ortiz): Even though Mike Mussina had a rough outing against Baltimore on Friday, he should bounce back against the Twins's hitters, who have a .290 OBP in 175 plate appearances against him.   In 2006, Mussina posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 197.1 IP, as he rebounded from two subpar years (relative to Mussina standards).  Mussina's 5/1 K/BB ratio from 2006 shows that he's still an excellent big-league pitcher.  On the other hand, Ramon Ortiz struggled last year, as he had a 5.58 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 190.2 IP in the pitcher-friendly National League.  As a result, the vaunted Yankees' lineup will be an enormous challenge.  In 232 plate appearances against Ortiz, they've posted the following stats: .322 BA, .432 OBP, .583 SLG. 

NBA (112 - 91)

Nuggets (+1) at Jazz: Something's not right with Jazz PG Deron Williams, and that could be the reason for their recent struggles.  Williams has been playing through a nagging groin injury, and the Jazz aren't the same offensive team when he's not 100%.  The Jazz are 1-14 ATS in their last 15 games, so they're just an awful bet right now.  Meanwhile, the Nuggets have won six straight games (4-2 ATS), and they appear to be on a roll as the playoffs approach.  The Nuggets are 22-14-1 ATS on the road, while the Jazz are 16-18-3 ATS at home.  Also, in the last five games, the Nuggets have held opponents to a 42.2 FG%.  In stark contrast, the Jazz have allowed a whopping 49.5 FG% over that same span. 

Wizards at Heat (-9.5): Shaquille O'Neal sat out last night's contest due to the death of his paternal grandfather, but he plans to return tonight.  Now that Dwayne Wade's had a few games under his belt, the Heat will be close to full strength against an opponent that's missing it's two best players (Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler).  The Wizards clinched a playoff spot last night, so they could suffer a letdown against a Heat team that's looking to get back on track after suffering two straight losses to the Charlotte Bobcats. 

Yesterday:

NBA: 2 - 0; MLB: 2.3 - 3.7

MLB (26.6 - 18.4)

Mariners (Weaver) at Red Sox (Beckett) -1.5 runs (even): After enduring an up-and-down 2006 campaign, Josh Beckett got off to a great start in a win over the Royals last week, as he allowed only two hits in five innings. Also, he's held the Mariners' hitters to just a .271 OBP in 126 plate appearances. Mariners' starter Jeff Weaver is coming off of a bad year in which he had a 5.76 ERA and 1.512 WHIP on his way to an 8-14 record. The 30-year-old has thrown a lot of innings since debuting in 1999, so his recent decline might indicate that he doesn't have much left in his arm. Weaver gave up 34 HRs in 172 IP last year, which is an average of 1.78 HRs per nine innings. That could spell trouble against the Red Sox' powerful lineup.

Astros (Sampson) +140 at Cubs (Marquis): It's going to be a cold one today at Wrigley Field as the NL Central rivals meet for the second of a three-game set. The Astros will send 27-year-old Chris Sampson to the hill for his second career start. His only other start actually came against the Cubs last year and he didn't disappoint, going seven strong innings while allowing only three hits. Of course, that Cubs lineup didn't include Derrek Lee, Mark DeRosa, and Alfonso Soriano. The Astros will try to keep their offense rolling after yesterday's 5-3 win. Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg have pounded Marquis before, hitting .571 and .469, respectively, against the overpaid righty. As an underdog, there is solid value on Houston today. Marquis could easily yield 5-6 runs and the Cubs' awful bullpen is certainly capable of serving up another handful.

Angels (Santana) vs. Indians (Sabathia) -130: C.C. Sabathia is pitching on a full week of rest between starts because the April snowstorm postponed this weekend's games in Cleveland. Sabathia was at his best last year when he received extra rest, as he posted a 2.90 ERA in those situations with a 4.08 K/BB ratio. Also, Sabathia has been able to handle the Angels' hitters in his career: .235 BA, .306 OBP, .379 SLG. Meanwhile, even though Ervin Santana had a great game against the Rangers last Wednesday, he's a fly-ball pitcher who could get burned against the Indians' power-hitting lineup. In his career, the Indians have posted the following numbers off him: .395 BA, .425 OBP, .921 SLG.

Tigers (Robertson) -130 at Orioles (Wright): The Orioles average just .231 against lefty Nate Robertson, and their lineup is stacked with lefthanded hitters. Also, Robertson got off to a solid start in a win over the Blue Jays, as he scattered seven hits over 5.2 innings. On the other hand, Jaret Wright had an awful outing in a loss to the Twins last Wednesday: 2.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 HA, 5 BB. Last year, Wright's 4.50 ERA was respectable by AL standards, but his 1.53 WHIP indicates that he's allowing too many batters to reach base. While Wright has never lost at Camden Yards in five career starts, that streak's coming to an end sooner rather than later (i.e., today).

Nationals (Chico) at Braves (Hudson) -1.5 runs (-110): The hapless Nationals (1-6) won't catch a break today, as they face off against one of the hottest teams in baseball, the Atlanta Braves (5-1). Veteran righty Tim Hudson (1-0) takes the mound for Atlanta and will face rookie Matt Chico (0-1). Hudson is looking to regain the form that made him a dominant starter in Oakland from 1999 through 2004. Today's game presents him with an opportunity for an easy win as the Nationals rank at the very bottom of the NL in runs scored, with only 18. They also have a combined 18 RBIs, which is good for second lowest in the NL. The Braves' offense has never seen the left-handed Chico, but right-handed hitters Brian McCann, Andruw Jones, and Jeff Francoeur should feast off the rookie.

Reds (Lohse) at Diamondbacks (Gonzalez) -130: Tonight, the Diamondbacks will try to extend their major-league-leading five-game winning streak against a Reds' team that has lost their last two games. Second-year starter Edgar Gonzalez had an impressive debut last week against the Nationals, striking out seven in five innings, while limiting Washington to only two runs. Gonzalez has only faced the Reds once before as a starter and will need to continue to keep the ball down to work around the potent bats of Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, Jr. The oft-injured Kyle Lohse gets the ball for the Reds. Lohse hasn't done well against the Diamondbacks in his two previous outings against them and will likely struggle as he tries to figure out a way to keep the hot-hitting Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson from extending their three-game hitting streaks.

Yesterday:

NBA: 1 - 1; MLB: 6 - 1.2

MLB (18 - 10.1)

Orioles (Bedard) +135 at Yankees (Rasner): Erik Bedard was touched up for six runs on ten hits in 4.2 IP at Minnesota in the opener on Monday. But he's normally a good pitcher in April (4-1, 3.69 ERA last year), and he was 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 14 K's in 12 IP vs. the Yankees in 2006. That includes a start at Yankee Stadium in which Bedard limited the vaunted Yankees' lineup to one run on five hits in six innings of work. Meanwhile, Rasner gave up five runs on five hits and three walks in his only start against the Orioles last year.

Pirates (Duke) Even at Reds (Milton): Pirates' starter Zach Duke looked good in the opener at Houston, as he allowed only two runs in 7 IP. On the other hand, this is Eric Milton's first start of the year, and he's just been plain bad since joining the Reds in 2005. Last year, he went 8-8 with a 5.20 ERA, and that was actually an improvement over his 2005 numbers (8-15, 6.48 ERA). In 2006, Milton was 3-6 with a 5.38 ERA when pitching in Cincinnati.

Phillies (Segovia) at Marlins (Olsen) -120: Zach Segovia will be making his MLB debut for the Phillies. He's only 23-years-old, and he hasn't pitched above the AA level, so the Marlins' hitters could feast off him today. Meanwhile, Scott Olsen is a good young lefthander who's only going to improve in the next few years. He did allow five walks in his start against the Nationals earlier in the week, but they could only muster two hits off him in 5.1 innings of work. Olsen's career 2/1 K/BB ratio shows that the walks shouldn't be a lingering problem.

Diamondbacks (Hernandez) -130 at Nationals (Hill): Livan Hernandez posted solid numbers in August and September last year after being traded from the Nationals to the Diamondbacks (3.46 ERA, 83 hits against (HA) in 83.1 IP). He also looked good at Coors Field this week, when he gave up only five hits and two runs in 7 IP. Even though Shawn Hill had a decent debut in a loss to the Marlins (5 IP, 5 HA, 2 ER), he's an unproven commodity. Hill missed all of the 2005 season after Tommy John surgery, and then he spent much of 2006 in AA before starting six games for the Nationals at the end of the season. He wasn't too good in those starts (4.72 ERA, 1.519 WHIP).

Cubs (Miller) at Brewers (Capuano) -120: Wade Miller has struggled the last three years, as he hasn't cracked 100 IP in any of those seasons. Last year, he only pitched 21.2 innings, and he's posted a 1.6 WHIP in the last two years combined. On the other hand, Chris Capuano's been a consistent starter over the last couple of years, and even though his 11-12 record in 2006 paled in comparison to his 18-12 mark in 2005, some numbers indicate that he actually made strides as a pitcher. Capuano's WHIP last year was 1.248, which was more than a point better than his 1.384 WHIP in 2005. This is explained by the fact that Capuano walked 44 fewer hitters last year despite pitching 2.1 fewer innings. As Capuano continues to trust his stuff, he'll be a solid contributor at the top of the Brewers' rotation.

Cardinals (Wells) at Astros (Jennings) -120: In six innings of work on Tuesday, Jason Jennings allowed only one run on five hits, and he struck out seven batters while allowing only one walk. Also, he's pitched well against the Cardinals in his career (3.52 ERA in 46 IP). Meanwhile, Kip Wells has a 5.03 ERA in 68 IP against the Astros, and even though he struck out seven batters in six innings against the Nationals this week, his four walks are worrisome. Wells has struggled with arm injuries, so he shouldn't be trying to strike out hitters, as that will lead to high pitch counts. Wells is coming off of three straight seasons with a WHIP above 1.5, and it's been rising each year. Also, his ERA has been just as bad (4.56 in 2004, 5.09 in 2006, and 6.53 in 2006).

Twins (Santana) -1.5 runs (-120) at White Sox (Danks): This is a run line, where the Twins have to win by more than a run in order to win the wager. The reason I'm selecting this line is that the regular moneyline is -200, and I don't think that offers enough of a payout to justify the risk. Johan Santana should shut down the White Sox today, as he's the best pitcher in the majors right now. Meanwhile, John Danks is making his MLB debut in the cold of Chicago. His AAA numbers from last year show that he's still developing as a pitcher: 4-5, 4.33 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 70.2 IP.

Tigers (Bonderman) -1.5 runs (-110) at Royals (Duckworth): Brandon Duckworth is a fringe #5 starter in the majors, as the 31-year-old is lucky that there are some teams with truly awful pitching. In eight starts last year, he posted a 1-5 record with a 6.17 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. On the other hand, Jermey Bonderman is one of the best young starters in the game. He had 202 Ks and 64 BBs in 214 IP last year, but he only struck out three batters in the opener this week. That's actually encouraging, as it shows that Bonderman might be concentrating on pitching to hitters, as opposed to overpowering them.

Dodgers (Wolf) at Giants (Zito) -130: Randy Wolf gave up four runs on seven hits in six innings of work in a loss at Milwaukee this week. He hasn't pitched more than 80 innings in either of the last two seasons. His great year in 2002 was followed by a so-so 2003, and his numbers have been mediocre since. After Tommy John surgery in the summer of 2005, Wolf is trying for a comeback, as the 30-year-old attempts to prove the cynics wrong. On the other hand, Barry Zito is at the top of his game, and he looked good in five innings of work against the Padres on Tuesday. But he was the victim of some bad fielding in the loss. Zito's making the switch from the AL to the NL, and hitters often have problems facing a decent lefty for the first time.

Red Sox (Schilling) at Rangers (Padilla) +120: Schilling didn't look good in his 2007 debut on Monday, as he allowed five runs, eight hits and two walks in just four innings of work against the Royals. Schilling had injury problems in 2005 after throwing over 200 innings in 2004. The same thing happened in 2003 after Schilling had thrown 200+ innings in 2002. The 40-year-old threw over 200 innings again last year, so it's very likely that he'll continue to have problems this season. Meanwhile, the Rangers have looked like the diametric opposite of their former free-swinging selves, as they've averaged five walks per game on offense. That's allowed them to have a .310 team OBP despite a dismal .203 BA. Michael Young and Mark Teixeira will get on track at some point, as hitting numbers have a tendency to balance out over the course of a season. With the Rangers' newfound patience at the plate, they'll score runs in bunches once the hits start coming. And the hitters started to break out of the doldrums last night, which is ominous for a struggling Schilling.

NBA (108 - 91)

Suns (-5) at Lakers: The Suns have lost three straight ATS, but they're still 7-3 SU in their last ten games and 5-5 ATS.  Meanwhile, the Lakers are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games.  To bet on the Lakers at this point, you have to be some kind of a masochist.

Rockets (-2.5) at Kings: The Rockets are coming into Sacramento after three straight losses, but they're still 18-10 ATS in the game following a loss.  Also, they're 22-15 ATS on the road, and they've gone 5-3 ATS as 1-to-2.5 point favorites.  Moreover, the Rockets are 12-5 ATS on the road against an under-.500 opponent.  On the other hand, the Kings are 2-5 ATS as 1-to-2.5 point underdogs, and they're only 16-20-1 ATS at home.    

...kiss Jon Daniels' ####



This is ridiculous.  We have Jan Hubbard of the Star Telegram saying that the Chris Young - Adrian Gonzalez trade faciliated the Carlos Lee trade.  Well, considering that the Rangers would be much better off with both Gonzalez and Young, I have trouble seeing how this trade facilitated anything good for the Rangers.

Let's break it down:

1. Chris Young vs. Adam Eaton?
Is a comment necessary? Check the stats.  Also, who tears a middle finger pulley tendon? What the hell is a pulley tendon? Does anyone else see shades of  Justin Thompson?

2.  Adrian Gonzalez vs. Akinori Otsukla
This is an unfair comparison, but wouldn't you rather have Teixeira at third, Gonzalez at first, and Blalock on the outs?  Seems like that's no longer a possibility unless we're stealing Tejeda from the Orioles.  At the same time, let's remember that no one, and I mean no one, thought that Aki was going to replace Francisco Cordero as closer.  Cordero's mediocrity was an unplanned problem,. and Daniels' relationship with the media has converted the trade into a reason for declaring genius on the young GM.  I don't see it.  All I see is 20 HRs that would have been 20 times cheaper than any power hitter the Rangers can now buy on the free agent market.  That's right, 20 times cheaper because second-year players like Gonzalez get signed for about $600,000.  Guys like Carlos Lee get signed for $12 million.  You do the math.  You check out the stats.

 51-53. The first-year GM has sure turned things around.