I haven't watched the Bulls-Heat game tonight, but after checking the stats at the half, I've come to the conclusion that this halftime line is pretty good. The Bulls have a large differential compared to the Heat in four significant statistical categories:
FG%: Bulls: 44%, Heat: 52%
3-pointers: Bulls: 2-for-9, Heat: 5-for-9
Assists: Bulls: 14, Heat: 10
Turnovers: Bulls: 11, Heat: 4
Since field-goal and three-point percentages are usually a matter of luck, which evens out over a period of time, I like the Bulls to have a better percentage in the second half than the Heat. Also, because the Bulls have bettered the Heat in terms of assists, they are moving the ball more effectively than the Heat. Finally, turnovers are a stat caused more by the offense's mistakes than the defense' pressure (although pressure does contribute), so I expect the Bulls' turnovers to decrease in the second half relative to the Heat.
The Bulls are down 52-45 at the half. The halftime line is Bulls +1, meaning that the game line on the Bulls is +8 if you take this bet. I think it would be a wise move because of the above stat differentials.
Rangers (Loe) +140 at Indians (Byrd): Several Rangers have had success against Paul Byrd: Michael Young (5-for-16, 1 3B), Mark Teixeira (5-for-13, 3 2B, 1 HR), and Sammy Sosa (4-for-10, 2 HR). In a total of 109 plate appearances against Byrd, the Rangers' hitters have the following stats: .314 BA, .358 OBP, .549 SLG. Also, Byrd's been hittable so far this year: 12 IP, 4 ER, 15 H, 2 BB, 7 K. Meanwhile, Rangers' starter Kameron Loe is coming of####reat first start of the season: 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K. He's got a nasty sinkerball, which will be a key to slowing down the Indians' power-hitting lineup.
Astros (Rodriguez) -130 at Pirates (Armas): Astros' starter Wandy Rodriguez has been decent this season: 19 IP, 10 ER, 18 H, 6 BB, 17 K. Even though he hasn't had much success against the Pirates' hitters, the opposing pitcher, Tony Armas, has been so bad that Rodriguez should be able to win this game. Armas has allowed 14 runs on 15 hits and seven walks in just 6.2 innings this season.
Reds (Lohse) at Cardinals (Keisler) Over 9 runs (-110): Randy Keisler has been okay this year (11 IP, 5 ER, 11 H, 4 BB, 5 K), but he's a minor-league journeyman who doesn't have the stuff to consistently retire big-league hitters. Meanwhile, Kyle Lohse has also been pitching a bit over his head (1.91 ERA, 1.02 WHIP). In 2006, Lohse had a 5.85 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 126.2 IP, so I expect his numbers to gradually worsen as the year goes on. Both offenses feature great hitters, so I'm expecting a high-scoring output against these mediocre starting pitchers.
Devil Rays (Seo) at Angels (Colon) -1.5 runs (-110): Bartolo Colon came back from injury with a very good outing: 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 1 K. The lack of strikeouts might be a bit worrisome, but as long as hitters aren't making good contact against Colon, he's a solid pitcher. Meanwhile, Jae Seo has been awful this season: 22.3 IP, 7.66 ERA, 1.88 WHIP.
Nationals (Hill) at Phillies (Hamels) -1.5 runs (-110): Cole Hamels is having an exceptional season, as he's already supplanted Brett Myers as the Phillies' ace: 28 IP, 2.57 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33 K. He struck out 15 against the Reds on Saturday in a complete-game victory, and the 115 pitches he threw might be worrisome if he wasn't facing a team as offensively inept as the Nationals. His pitching opponent, Shawn Hill, has been good so far this season: 24.7 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.18 WHIP. But Hill has a problem with his right forearm; he says that medication makes it a non-issue, but he also hasn't had to face the red-hot Phillies' lineup. Ryan Howard homered last night in a 9-3 win, so he might be getting back on an offensive groove. If so, Hill could get bombed today.
Red Sox (Beckett) -1.5 runs (Even) at Orioles (Loewen)
Tigers (Robertson) Even at White Sox (Contreras)
Padres (Young) -120 at Diamondbacks (Hernandez)
Giants (Ortiz) at Dodgers (Penny) -1.5 runs (+120)
Rockies (Fogg) at Mets (Pelfrey) -1.5 runs (+110): Josh Fogg has pitched poorly this year (6.61 ERA, 1.84 WHIP), and the following Mets have pounded him in the past: Shawn Green (10-for-31, 5 2B), Moises Alou (10-for-27, 1 HR), Paul Lo Duca (10-for-21, 2 2B), Carlos Beltran (8-for-19, 1 3B), Carlos Delgado (6-for-12), and Jose Valentin (3-for-7, 1 HR). Opposing starter Mike Pelfrey hasn't pitched consistently well this year (10.2 IP, 6 ER, 12 H, 6 BB, 5 K). However, he has immense potential, and he should be serviceable against a Rockies' offense that hasn't been able to hit much this season. The Rockies rank last in the National League in slugging percentage and 12th in runs scored. Meanwhile, the Mets are first in slugging percentage and second in runs scored.
Brewers (Sheets) +110 at Cubs (Lilly): After a good opening-day start, Ben Sheets gave up 12 earned runs over his next two starts. But he rebounded with a solid outing against the Astros last week, and his 1.15 WHIP for the season shows that it's tough for opposing hitters to reach base against him. Among Cubs' hitters, only Derrek Lee has had consistent success (17-for-46, 2 2Bs, 7 HR). Aramis Ramirez (12-for-55), Jacque Jones (2-for-13), and Cesar Izturis (2-for-24) have all struggled against the Brewers' ace. Although Cubs' starter Ted Lilly has been one of their lone bright spots this year (26 IP, 2.42 ERA, 0.77 WHIP), he's due for a bad outing. Last year, Lilly had a 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 181.2 IP, and I expect his numbers to be closer to that by the end of this season, with a moderate improvement due to the switch to the pitcher-friendly NL. Also, the Brewers have won four straight games, so it'll be hard for the Cubs, who are losers of three straight, to break through today.
Red Sox (Schilling) -130 at Orioles (Cabrera): Against Curt Schilling, the only Orioles with success are Aubrey Huff (11-for-43, 5 2B, 1 HR), Chris Gomez (10-for-33, 1 HR), and Miguel Tejada (7-for-20, 3 2B). Everyone else in their lineup has struggled to hit him. Schilling should put an end to the Red Sox' modest two-game losing streak today, as he's been good this year: 26 IP, 11 ER, 24 H, 5 BB, 20 K. Meanwhile, opposing starter Daniel Cabrera has shown improvement with his control: 26.3 IP, 12 ER, 28 H, 7 BB, 26 K. Last year, he walked 104 batters in 148 innings, so this season's decline in walks indicates that he's finally learning to pitch. But the fact is that Cabrera is still learning, and he's getting hit more than in the past as a result of his desire to avoid walks. The Red Sox boast dangerous hitters who make great contact on pitches that get too much of the strike zone, so I expect Cabrera to have a tough time tonight. And Schilling should hold the Orioles to few enough runs for the Red Sox to grind out a victory.
Braves (Hudson) -150 at Marlins (Olsen): Tim Hudson has been terrific this season: 29 IP, 2 ER, 16 H, 11 BB, 19 K. He beat the Marlins on April 15, allowing six hits and a run in seven innings. This is actually a rematch of that game, as Scott Olsen got ####ed up for five runs on six hits in just 2.2 innings. Olsen's been struglging with his control this year: 18 IP, 15 ER, 22 H, 15 BB, 10 K. Since he hasn't shown any signs of coming out of his funk, the Braves are a good play today.
Blue Jays (Burnett) at Yankees (Pettitte) -1.5 runs (-110): Andy Pettitte has been a warrior this year, as he's started four games and pitched in relief twice in order to save an overworked Yankees' bullpen. Pettitte's put up solid numbers in his outings (25.3 IP, 5 ER, 24 H, 9 BB, 13 K), and he'll be looking to break the Yankees' five-game losing streak today. Meanwhile, A.J. Burnett has been inconsistent this year (21 IP, 13 ER, 18 H, 13 BB, 14 K), which doesn't bode well against the Yankees' powerful lineup. Both teams have hit the opposing starter in the past, but I expect Pettitte to get the better of this matchup today in the pressure-filled environs of Yankee Stadium.
Devil Rays (Jackson) at Angels (Lackey) -1.5 runs (-120): The Los Angeles Angels (10-10) open up a two-game set tonight at home against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (9-10). Although their records are almost identical, the Angels are superb at home (9-3). The Halos will give the ball to their ace, John Lackey (2-2, 2.55 ERA), who revels in chewing up the Devil Rays and spitting them out. The tall Texan is 6'1" with a 2.61 ERA against Tampa Bay. Tonight's starter for the D-Rays is the unpredictable Edwin Jackson (0-2, 6.75 ERA). Although Jackson was once considered a top pitching prospect, he's fallen victim to a lack of command. Tonight, he faces a lineup that will make you pay dearly for any mistakes. The Angels' Vladimir Guerrero has been knocking the cover off the ball this past week to the tune of nine hits in his last 18 AB.
Tigers (Durbin) at White Sox (Danks) Over 10.5 runs: To say the Tigers' Chad Durbin (0-1, 10.54 ERA) has been bad this year would be a gross understatement. Durbin has yet to make it out of the 5th inning in each of his 3 starts and has allowed a whopping 20 hits in just under 14 innings. Even more frightening than Durbin's numbers this year are his career numbers against the White Sox (1-6, 10.26 ERA). The White Sox' John Danks (0-2, 5.06 ERA) has been marginally better than Durbin this year, but couldn't find his way out of the fourth inning last Friday when he faced Detroit. In that contest, Danks allowed six hits and four runs in 4.2 innings. Both the Tigers and the White Sox have some huge bats (Paul Konerko, Magglio Ordonez, et al.) that will likely knock these two struggling pitchers out before the 5th inning. Expect a slugfest tonight at US Cellular Field.
NBA (118 - 98)
Wizards at Cavs -11.5: Without their top scorer (Gilbert Arenas) and most productive player (Caron Butler), the Wizards are pretty much dead on arrival in this series. 11.5 points is a lot, but the Wizards' 36.5 FG% in Game 1 wasn't a fluke, as they just don't have anyone who can consistently put the ball in the hoop against a quality team.
Nuggets (+8.5) at Spurs: The Nuggets are too good to be getting this many points. Although the Spurs should bounceback in Game 2 to even the series, this game's going to be relatively close, unless the Nuggets just have an awful shooting night. Nene and Marcus Camby appear capable of causing problems for the Spurs' interior game, as the Spurs were forced into too many jumpshots in Game 1, and they only got to the free-throw line ten times. Meanwhile, the Nuggets took the ball to the rim, and they were rewarded with 25 free-throw attempts.
Warriors at Mavs (-9): In Game 1, the Mavs shot only 35%, compared to the Warriors 42%. The Warriors aren't known for their defense, so the Mavs' poor-shooting night appears to be a bit of a fluke. For the season, the Mavs shot 46.2%, and they should come close to that tonight. Also, the Mavs will be deadset on avenging the embarrassing Game 1 loss, so this one should be a blowout.
Astros (Williams) Even at Pirates (Maholm): Woody Williams has pitched well against the three Pirates who he's faced enough times to develop significant trends: Jack Wilson (2-for-27), Adam LaRoche (2-for-10), and Jason Bay (1-for-9), with all the hits being singles. Williams hasn't pitched well this year (6.55 ERA, 1.73 WHIP), but opposing starter Paul Maholm has been bad, too (6.19 ERA, 1.75 WHIP). Also, three Astros have had some success against Maholm: Chris Burke (5-for-12, 1 2B, 1 HR), Craig Biggio (3-for-7, 2 HR), and Morgan Ensberg (2-for-5, 1 HR). In a total of 85 plate appearances against Maholm, the Astros have posted the following stats: .310 BA, .419 OBP, .521 SLG.
Nationals (Bergmann) at Phillies (Moyer) -1.5 runs (-110): Veteran pitcher Jamie Moyer has pitched well this year: 20.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 1.26 WHIP. Also, he's had success against the Nationals' hitters in their 137 plate appearances: .213 BA, .284 OBP, .362 SLG. Although Jason Bergmann's shown decent stuff in his outings, his overall stats indicate that he has some control problems: 16 IP, 7 ER, 11 H , 11 BB, 15 K. The Phillies got in an offensive groove last night, and it'll be tough for a young pitcher to stop them.
Brewers (Suppan) at Cubs (Hill) (-150): Rich Hill has been terrific this season: 22 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 7 BB, 18 K. Against the Brewers' hitters, he's been simply dominant, as they have three hits in 50 at-bats, with 5 walks and 19 strikeouts. Meanwhile, although Jeff Suppan's having a decent year (3.91 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), several Cubs have hit him hard in their careers: Derrek Lee (18-for-38, 6 2B, 4 HR, 11 BB), Jacque Jones (12-for-37, 4 HR, 11 BB), and Aramis Ramirez (9-for-29, 4 2B, 1 HR).
Indians (Carmona) at Twins (Santana) -1.5 runs (-110): Johan Santana is the most dominant pitcher in the majors, and he's been performing well so far this year: 27 IP, 9 ER, 18 H, 7 BB, 32 K. On the other hand, Fausto Carmona is probably the Indians' worst starter: 10.1 IP, 8 ER, 13 H. Also, the Indians' bullpen isn't a strong point, so if Carmona gets knocked out early, the Twins shouldn't have a problem winning by more than a run.
Reds (Harang) +130 at Cardinals (Wells): After two subpar starts, Aaron Harang bounced back against the Astros last Wednesday with a strong outing: 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K. Meanwhile, Kip Wells has been on a downslide after starting off the season well. In his first two starts, he posted the following stats: 13 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 14 K. But in the last two starts he wasn't as good: 13 IP, 7 ER, 11 H, 4 BB, 8 K. Both Wells and Harang have taken their lumps against the opposition, but I like the value in a Harang play, as he's the superior starting pitcher in this matchup.
White Sox (Vazquez) -150 at Royals (Bannister): The Chicago White Sox (10-8) will play the second of a two-game series against the Kansas City Royals (6-13) tonight at Kauffman Stadium. The White Sox must like playing after getting a good night's sleep, as they're 6-2 in night games. Chicago starter Javier Vasquez (2-0, 2.50) has done a good job of handling the Royals throughout his career, evidenced by his 4-1 record and sparkling 1.88 ERA against them. The Royals' starter for tonight, converted reliever Brian Bannister (no record), will be making only his seventh professional start and his first for the Royals. Bannister will have his hands full containing the White Sox' Jim Thome, who has seven hits in his last 16 AB's along with three long balls and five RBI. Chicago has won every time Vazquez has taken the mound this year and tonight should be no exception.
NBA (116 - 97)
Nets at Raptors (-5): The Raptors lost the first game due to a lack of playoff experience, as T.J. Ford and Chris Bosh seemed a bit tentative. But compared to the Nets' roster, they are such superior athletes that they should be able to bounceback in a critical Game 2 at home. This is a must-win for the Raptors, while the Nets have already done their job in Toronto by stealing the first game. In situations like this, the psychological factors play a major role, and I'm expecting the Raptors to win big. The series will tighten up again when they travel to New Jersey for Game 3.
Heat (+3.5) at Bulls: The Bulls won Game 1 because they killed the Heat on the offensive boards (13 to 4), and that was partly a result of Shaq being limited to 26 minutes due to foul trouble. After hearing nothing but complaints for the last two days, the officials will be more wary of calling fouls on Shaq, and he should reassert his dominance in the paint. The Heat have the NBA's best player in Dwayne Wade, and that makes them too good to go down 2-0 against an inconsistent team like the Bulls.
Lakers at Suns (-9): Game 1 was close until the 4th quarter because the Suns had trouble hitting their open jumpshots, and they were just 6-for-23 (26.1%) on three-point attempts. For the season, the Suns shot 39.8% from beyond the arc, so they're due to start draining three's. The Lakers don't have enough components to effectively run with the Suns, as Kobe Bryant seems to be the extent of their offense. The Suns should dominate tonight, and don't be surprised if this turns out to be a four-game sweep.
Blue Jays
(Okha) at Red Sox (Wakefield) -1.5 runs (Even): The
Boston Red Sox (12-5) have won five straight games and will take on a team that
has lost five straight tonight as they play the struggling Toronto Blue Jays
(8-10) at Fenway Park.
Red Sox starter Tim Wakefield (2-1, 1.35) is in the midst of a career
renaissance, as he's given up only 12 hits in 20 innings of work so far.
The knuckleballer slammed the door on the Blue Jays last Wednesday,
limiting them to four hits and one run through seven innings. Meanwhile,
the Toronto offense is struggling mightily without starting
third baseman Troy Glaus, who is sidelined on the DL with a heel injury.
The Blue Jays starter for tonight, Tomo Okha (0-2, 7.02) is far-and-away the worst pitcher in the Toronto
rotation. He's served up 18 hits, including 6 HR, in a mere 16.2
innings of work. Tonight, he has an epic challenge on his hands as
he faces a Boston offense that hit four homers in a row last night against
Chase Wright of the New York Yankees. One of those hitters last night was Mike
Lowell, who has 3 career HR against Ohka.
Rockies (Buchholtz) at Mets (Maine) -1.5 runs (-110)
Yankees (Igawa) -1.5 runs (-110) at Devil Rays (Fossum)
Brewers (Vargas) +140 at Cubs (Zambrano)
Mariners (Baek) at Rangers (Millwood) -140
White Sox (Buehrle) -130 at Royals (Meche)
Tigers (Maroth) at Angels (Weaver) -1.5 runs (+150)
Astros (Oswalt) -140 at Brewers (Bush): The Houston Astros (9-7) will play the Milwaukee Brewers (10-7) in a rubber-game this afternoon that will also determine which team is in first place in the NL Central. The Astros send their ace Roy Oswalt (3-0, 2.89) to the mound against the Brewers' Dave Bush (1-1, 5.82). The Wizard has looked nasty this year and has done very well against the Brewers throughout his career, posting a 3.39 ERA and an 11-6 lifetime record against them. Bush, on the other hand, is struggling with consistency this season, despite his decent career record against Houston (2-0, 2.17). Prior to last nights loss, the Astros had won 5 in a row behind the bats of Chris Burke and Jason Lane. Look for them to get another winning streak going today behind the ultra-competitive Oswalt, especially since yesterday's loss was largely fueled by a fluke 2 home-run day from Brewers' shortstop J.J. Hardy.
Mariners (Weaver) at Angels (Santana) -1.5 runs (+140): The Los Angeles Angels (8-9) have won 2 in a row against the Seattle Mariners (5-8) and will look to go to .500 on the year with a sweep this afternoon. Today's Angels' starter, Ervin Santana (1-2, 7.63), must be thrilled to be pitching at home again. After getting blasted this past Monday on a cold rainy day in Boston, he will be making his start today in a park where he always seems to take his pitching to another level. In 32 starts in Anaheim, Santana is 20-5 with a 3.07 ERA. The Angels (8-9) have won 2 in a row from the Mariners (5-8). Seattle's starter, Jeff Weaver (0-2, 15.75), has been dismal in 2007, allowing 17 hits and 14 ER through 8 innings of work. It's unlikely that Weaver will have an answer for the Angels' hitting machine, Vladimir Guerrero, who has lit up the Mariners pitching staff for 4 hits in 7 AB's, including 2 home-runs, in the current series. Big Daddy Vladdy has only faced Weaver 9 times in his career, but does have one HR to show for it.
Diamondbacks (Petit) at Giants (Cain) -1.5 runs (+110): The surging San Francisco Giants (8-8) have won four games in a row and will attempt a series sweep agains the Arizona Diamondbacks (10-9) this afternoon. San Francisco will hand the ball to Matt Cain (0-1, 1.80), who has pitched extremely well despite receiving little to no run support. That should definitely change today, as the Giaints hitters have been going off in the past week. Barry Bonds has 7 hits including 2 HR in his last 14 AB's, while Rich Aurilia is 9-25 with 6 RBI. The Diamondbacks will be sending Yusmeiro Petit to the hill today in place of injured starter Micah Owings. Petit came to the D-Backs from the Marlins in a trade for the infamous Jorge Julio. He will be making his first start for the Diamondbacks and was considered a top minor-league pitching prospect for years, but was slaughtered last year as a rookie for Florida, allowing an appalling 46 hits and 28 ER in only 26 innings.
Nets at Raptors (-4.5): The Nets finished the season by winning eight of their last ten games, but that was a result of an easy schedule at a time when a lot of teams stopped playing hard. The Nets will struggle to matchup defensively against athletic power forward Chris Bosh. Also, Jason Kidd's slowed down a bit, so he'll have trouble against the penetrating abilities of T.J. Ford. The Raptors were 24-16-1 ATS at home this season, and they covered in both of their home games against the Nets (120-109 on 2/14, and 90-78 on 12/15).
Magic at Pistons (-9.5): The Magic went 7-3 SU in their last ten games, but they were fighting for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Pistons have been resting up for the playoffs, and they'll have little trouble against an inferior Magic squad. The Pistons covered the spread in their first three meetings with the Magic this season, and their five-point win on April 11 was a push. That game didn't matter much to the Pistons, and I expect a blowout today.
MLB (62.3 - 48.5)
Braves (James) +120 at Mets (Perez): Young lefty Chuck James has pitched well against the Mets in their 44 plate appearances against him: .171 BA, .227 OBP, .341 SLG. So far this season James has been solid: 16 IP, 16 H, 4 ER, 6 BB, 13 K. Meanwhile, Oliver Perez had major control problems in his second start of the season: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 3 ER, 7 BB. Perez has struggled with his command since 2004, and the Braves' hitters can punish mistakes. Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Jeff Francoeur, Matt Diaz, Ryan Langerhans, and Willy Aybar have homered against Perez in their careers. In just six at-bats against him, Langherhans has two homers and two doubles.
White Sox (Contreras) +130 at Tigers (Robertson): Nate Robertson has gotten off to an excellent start this season (2-1, 1.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), but he's had problems against the White Sox' hitters. Paul Konerko is 15-for-52 (.288 BA) with four homers; Jermaine Dye is 13-for-35 (.371 BA) with seven homers, five doubles, and ten walks (.511 OBP); Jim Thome is 4-for-10 with a homer and a double; Tadahito Iguchi is 14-for-42 (.333 BA) with three doubles, two triples, and two homers; Juan Uribe is 17-for-43 (.395 BA) with a double, two triples, and two homers. Meanwhile, Jose Contreras has recovered well since a disastrous opening-day performance. In his last two starts, he's only allowed five hits and one run in 11 innings. Contreras has also walked nine batters over that span, but that's better than allowing hitters to tee off on him.
Twins (Bonser) -120 at Royals (Greinke): #### Bonser has given up ten runs in his last two starts, but those came against good offensive teams (Yankees and Devil Rays). Bonser pitched well last year, so I expect him to recover against a Royals' squad that ranks tenth in the AL in batting average, runs scored, and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage). On the other hand, after two terrific starts, Zack Greinke returned to earth against the Tigers last Monday: 0.2 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 3 BB.
Diamondbacks (Gonzalez) at Giants (Zito) -150: Edgar Gonzalez has gotten worse in each of his starts, and his overall stats on the season aren't impressive: 18.1 IP, 22 H, 11 ER, 5 BB, 14 K. Meanwhile, Barry Zito returned to his aggressive self against the Rockies on Monday, as he shut them out for six innings, allowing only three hits and three walks.
Phillies (Hamels) -130 at Reds (Milton): Despite giving up six walks in his only start against the Reds last year, Cole Hamels struck out six and allowed only one hit over five innings. That start also came at Cincinnati, which is a notorious hitters' park. This season, Hamels' control has gotten better, as he's only walked four batters in 19 innings. His 3.32 ERA and 1.21 WHIP make him the de facto ace of the Phillies' staff. Meanwhile, Eric Milton has struggled this year: 10.2 IP, 13 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 10 K.
Indians (Byrd) -150 at Devil Rays (Seo): Paul Byrd's first start of the year was erased due to the snowy conditions in Cleveland two weeks ago, but he came back with six shutout innings against the White Sox last Saturday. Byrd's a reliable starter, while his opponent, Jae Seo, has been extremely hittable this year: 16.1 IP, 28 H, 14 ER. In 48 plate appeareances against Seo, the Indians have a .333, BA, .388 OBP, and .622 SLG.
Padres (Hensley) at Rockies (Francis) -130: Although Clay Hensley claims that he's no longer affected by blister problems, his numbers show that something's still wrong with him: 14 IP, 24 H, 19 ER, 8 BB, 7 K. Until he has a good performance, it's a good bet to go against him. Meanwhile, Rockies' starter Jeff Francis began the year with two solid starts before faltering against the Giants last Monday. But Francis' 2006 numbers (4.16 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) indicate that he just had a bad outing, so he should be fine today. Francis has shown that he can pitch well at Coors Field, as he had a 4.30 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 90 innings there last season.
Indians (Sabathia) -1.5 runs (-110) at Devil Rays (Jackson): The Cleveland Indians (6-6) and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (6-9) will open a three game set tonight at Tropicana Field. Following the Indians’ devastating 9th inning loss to the yesterday to the Yankees, Cleveland will try to get things going again today as they hand the ball to their ace, C.C. Sabathia (3-0, 2.14). The Devil Rays will counter with the mercurial Edwin Jackson (0-2, 8.31). The Indians should be able to establish an early lead in this one, as the only thing Jackson seems to be specializing in this year is allowing a high number of base-runners to reach. Through 8.2 innings, Jackson has walked 6 while allowing 11 hits. Although he has never faced Jackson, the Indians’ Travis Hafner probably can’t wait until he does. Pronk feasts off of weak right-handed pitching, as evidenced by his 26 bombs last year against righties. Sabathia, on the other hand, has been un-hittable as of late. In his last appearance, Sabathia mowed down the powerful White Sox lineup, resulting in 10 K’s in 8 innings, while allowing only 5 hits.
Padres (Young) -110 at Rockies (Fogg): The San Diego Padres (9-7) will travel to Coors Field today to open a series against their NL West foes, the Colorado Rockies (7-9). Today’s Padres’ starter, Chris Young (1-1, 4.30), will be looking to rebound from his last appearance, where he allowed 4 runs, 5 walks and 4 hits in an unusual (at least for his standards) 2 inning outing against the Dodgers. Throughout his career, Young has been particularly effective against the Rockies, limiting sluggers Todd Helton and Garrett Atkins to 3 hits a piece in a combined 25 AB’s. The Rockies will roll out starter Josh Fogg (0-0, 3.38), who has had major problems facing both Marcus and Brian Giles. The brothers are both career .500 hitters against Fogg, who has also given up 2 HR to the elder Giles. In their last 6 meetings, the Padres have taken 5 from the Rockies and should be able to keep that trend going today behind a motivated Young.
Braves (Hudson) -110 at Mets (Pelfrey): It’s a battle for the top-standing in the NL East tonight, as the Atlanta Braves (10-5) will try to push the red-hot New York Mets (10-4) out of first place. The Braves will send the invigorated Tim Hudson (2-0, 0.86) to the mound against the Mets’ Mike Pelfrey (0-0, 3.18). Hudson is looking like his uncompromising 2003-era self again, as he easily bagged this week’s NL player of the week award. Through 21 innings of work, Hudson has been stingy against base-runners, allowing only 11 hits while striking out 16. Pelfrey is making only his sixth career start tonight and his second of the season. The Mets young-starter looked rather pedestrian against the lowly Washington Nationals in his only other appearance this year, allowing 6 hits and 4 walks through 5.2 innings of work. Although the Mets have won 3 straight games, the Braves are in a great position to win tonight behind the steady arm of Hudson.
Red Sox (Tavarez) +170 at Blue Jays (Halladay): Roy Halladay is one of the best power pitchers in baseball, and he's off to a great start this year. But the Red Sox boast a formidable lineup, and their top two hitters have had success against Halladay. David Ortiz is 20-for-67 (.299 BA) against him, with seven homers and four doubles. Manny Ramirez is 19-for-68 (.279 BA), with four homers and two doubles. Six other hitters on the Red Sox roster also have homers against Halladay: Jason Varitek, Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, Alex Cora, Doug Mirabelli, and Mike Lowell. Although Julian Tavarez is not a good starting pitcher, he's had success at Toronto's Rogers Centre. In the last three years, he's posted the following numbers there: 11.1 IP, 9 H, 1 ER.
Diamondbacks (Hernandez) at Padres (Peavy) -1.5 runs (+125): Peavy is off to a monster start this year: 20 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 6 BB, 12 K. The only player in the D-backs' lineup with a history of success against Peavy is Conor Jackson, who is 5-for-13 with a double. Chad Tracy has faced him more than any other D-back, and he's just 8-for-43 (.186 BA). Meanwhile, several Padres have had success against Livan Hernandez: Mike Cameron (9-for-32, 5 HR), Brian Giles (9-for-32 with four extra-base hits), Jose Cruz, Jr. (8-for-17, 1 HR), and Adrian Gonzalez (2-for-6, 1 HR). Although Hernandez has only given up four earned runs and 14 hits in 20 innings this season, he's walked 11 batters while striking out only nine. Those walks are going to catch up to him, especially against a Padres' lineup that features patient hitters at the top of the order.
Cubs (Hill) -120 at Braves (Redman): Rich Hill is quickly developing into one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the fact that he's flown under the radar results in nice value with this line. In 14 innings this season, Hill's only given up one run on four hits and four walks, while striking out 11 batters. Meanwhile, Mark Redman has been awful this season: 8.1 IP, 15 H, 12 ER. That's actually worse than his numbers from last year (5.71 ERA, 1.59 WHIP), which was his worst season in the majors.
Rangers (Padilla) +130 at White Sox (Vazquez): Vicente Padilla has been very good against the White Sox' hitters in their 130 plate appearances against him: .198 BA, .301 OBP, .293 SLG. Of the regulars in the lineup, only Tadahito Iguchi has had success against him: 3-for-8 with a double and a homer. Although Paul Konerko is 4-for-11 against Padilla, he has no extra-base hits. On the other hand, Javier Vazquez has had trouble against four of the Rangers' regulars: Sammy Sosa (9-for-27, 3 HR, 2 double), Frank Catalanotto (9-for-20, 1 HR, 1 double), Kenny Lofton (7-for-10, 3 triples), and Hank Blalock (4-for-10, 1 HR, 1 double). And even though Vazquez has only given up nine hits and two runs in 12 innings this year, his seven walks are a bit worrisome, especially against an increasingly patient Rangers' lineup. Also, the Rangers will be focussed today after getting no-hit by Mark Buehrle in yesterday's contest. And there seems to be a letdown effect for the team that got the no-hitter. Perhaps, last night's post-game celebrations in Chicago might also cause a literal hangover effect.
Twins (Santana)-1.5 runs (-105) at Mariners (Washburn): Today is a somber day in Seattle as the Mariners (5-5) await news regarding the extent of fire-baller Felix Hernandez’s elbow injury. This afternoon, the Twins (9-5) will look to capitalize on the climate of uncertainty as they aim for a sweep against the tough-luck Mariners. You could almost consider it poetic that the Twins will be sending their ace, Johan Santana (2-1, 3.60) to the hill the very day after Hernandez went out. Santana and Hernandez missed facing off against each other by exactly one day in what would have been a match up for the ages. The Mariners will counter with southpaw Jarrod Washburn (0-1, 3.75). Santana, arguably the most dominant pitcher in baseball, absolutely owns the Mariners. In 14 starts against the M’s, Santana has complied a 6-1 record.
Royals (Meche) at Tigers (Bonderman) -1.5 runs (Even): In what could be considered a colossal mismatch, the Kansas City Royals (3-11) will play the Detroit Tigers (9-5) in the final of a three-game series. The Royals, losers of six straight games, will send $55 million pitcher Gil Meche (1-1, 3.10) to the mound. Detroit will counter with opening-day starter Jeremy Bonderman (0-0, 2.57), who is aiming for his first win of the season. In his prior starts, Meche has been tattooed by Tigers' outfielder Gary Sheffield, who is 5-for-14 lifetime and 2-for-2 with one homer this season against the Royals' number-one starter. Meche was lit up during his last start against Detroit on April 7th, giving up 6 ER in seven innings. Bonderman has made three quality starts for the Tigers this year, but has been the victim of a lack of run support. That should change today, as the Tigers will look to provide Bonderman with an early cushion, allowing him to attack the Kansas City hitters with his fastball while inducing them to make weak contact.
Angels (Lackey) Even at Athletics (Haren): There's no doubt that the Angels'
five-game losing streak, coupled with their temporary loss of Vladimir Guerrero,
has lowered their value as far as the public is concerned. Today, the Halos
will try to right the ship as they aim to split a two-game set with the Oakland
Athletics. The Angels will send their ace, John Lackey (2-1, 2.04 ERA) to the
mound against the A's Dan Haren (0-2, 2.00 ERA). Lackey has been an imposing force
on the A's during the last few seasons, logging an impressive 10-2 record
against them while striking out 95 in 119 innings. Lackey seems to love
pitching in Oakland, as he's 4-0 there since the end of 2005. The Angels, on
the other hand, seem to tee-off on Haren every time they meet. Garrett Anderson
will look to break out of his recent 3-for-24 funk against Haren, who he's crushed to the tune of nine hits (two homers) in 24 at-bats.
Mets (Maine) atMarlins (Willis) -120: The New York
Mets (8-4) will open a short two-game series against the Marlins
(6-7) tonight at Dolphin Stadium. While Florida has dropped their last
three games, they still lead the NL in team batting average (.288),
RBI (61), hits (130) and runs (68). The Marlins will look to improve to
.500 on the season tonight behind their ace, Dontrelle Willis (3-0,
3.32 ERA), who owns an incredible 11-2 record against New York. The Mets
have been playing above-average baseball through their first 12 games,
but could falter tonight behind the inexperienced arm of John Maine
(1-0, 1.54 ERA). Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera, and Josh Willingham of
the Marlins all connected for homers off Maine in their one outing against him
last season.
Indians (Sowers) +130 at Yankees (Igawa): Jeremy Sowers has gotten off to a good start in 2007: 13 IP, 7 H, 3 ER. He's continuing the success of last year, when he accumulated the following stats in a short stint in the majors: 88.1 IP, 3.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP. Even though opposing starter Kei Igawa rebounded in his second start at Oakland, he was awful in his only game at Yankee Stadium. Also, Igawa's a lefty, and the Indians have three batters who crushed southpaws in 2006: Travis Hafner (16 HR in 184 at-bats), Grady Sizemore (10 HR in 103 at-bats), and Casey Blake (10 HR in 114 at-bats).
Red Sox (Wakefield) -130 at Blue Jays (Ohka): The only hitter in the Blue Jays' lineup who's had consistent success against knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is Alex Rios: 6-for-16 with a double, triple, and a homer. Although Frank Thomas has blasted three homers against Wakefield in his career, Thomas is only 7-for-36 overall (.194 BA). And Vernon Wells is just 8-for-34 (.235 BA) with one extra-base hit (double). So far this year, Wakefield has been terrific: 13 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 7 K. On the other hand, Blue Jays' starter Tomo Ohka has not been good: 10.1 IP, 14 H, 9 ER, 4 BB.
Astros (Sampson) at Reds (Harang) -130: Astros' rookie Chris Sampson pitched well in his only start of the year at the Cubs: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. Sampson's not a strikeout pitcher, as he tries to induce weak contact, which is only a concern because he's recovering from tightness in his calf muscle, and control pitchers have a slim margin of error. If Sampson's not 100%, he could get hammered at Cincinnati's notorious "Great American Hitters' Park". Meanwhile, Aaron Harang has had two bad outings since opening day, and Astros' slugger Lance Berkman has hit six homers in 35 at-bats against him. But Harang's a veteran power pitcher, and his ability to get strikeouts is an advantage at a hitters' park.
Dodgers (Lowe) -110 at Rockies (Lopez): Following a poor beginning to the season, Derek Lowe has been good in his last two outings: 15 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 7 K. Lowe's a sinkerball pitcher, and that's a good thing at Coors Field. Meanwhile, even though Rockies' starter Rodrigo Lopez has begun the year well, he's suffering from a sore elbow, and the Dodgers' hitters have pounded him in his career. Lopez's numbers from last year don't inspire confidence that he can keep up his current pace: 189 IP, 5.91 ERA, 1.55 WHIP.
Rangers (Millwood) +110 at White Sox (Buehrle): Millwood has begun the year with a 2-1 record and 3.71 ERA. He's had successs against Joe Crede (6-for-28 with no extra-base hits) and Jermaine Dye (2-for-22). Scott Podsednik has hit Millwood better than any other White Sox batters (14-for-39), but Podsednik's not going to beat many teams with his bat. Meanwhile, Mark Buehrle has only pitched 8.1 IP this year as a result of being hit by a line drive in his first start. He pitched well against Oakland last week after giving up three runs in the first inning, but there's still a big question whether Buehrle's suffering from a tired arm. He pitched 200+ innings for six straight seasons, and he had subpar numbers last year: 204 IP, 4.99 ERA, 1.45 WHIP. Although he's dominated Michael Young (.191 BA) and Hank Blalock (.125 BA), Mark Teixeira (.412 BA) and Sammy Sosa (.368 BA) have hit him well. Moreover, the Rangers bats are heating up, while the White Sox continue to struggle at the plate.
Diamondbacks (Webb) -120 at Padres (Wells): 2006 Cy Young Award winner Brandon Webb has not begun the year well: 19 IP, 23 H, 11 ER, 10 BB. However, he's not injured, and with better pitch selection, he should be able to get back to his normal self. On the other hand, David Wells is on the downside of his career, as he's given up 14 hits and seven runs in nine innings this season. In 2006, Wells' numbers weren't much better: 75 IP, 4.43 ERA, 1.45 WHIP.
Twins (Silva) at Mariners (Hernandez) -1.5 runs (Even): Twins' starter Carlos Silva has only given up one run in 11.2 IP this year, but he's allowed 12 hits and three walks, which shows that batters are able to reach base against him. There's some talk that Silva may be returning to his 2005 form, when he posted a 3.45 ERA and 1.175 WHIP. However, the key to that season was the fact that Silva only walked nine batters in 188.1 IP. This year, he's already walked one-third of that number. Moreover, Silva was a bad pitcher last year: 180.1 IP, 5.95 ERA, 1.54 WHIP. On the other hand, Felix Hernandez appears poised to become a dominant ace, as his numbers this season have been outstanding: 17 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 18 K. It's almost amazing that Hernandez has allowed only eight batters to reach base in his two starts, and he should continue that success against the Twins tonight. Only Joe Mauer has performed well against him (8-for-17 with a homer and two doubles). Reigning MVP Justin Morneau is 3-for-17 with no extra-base hits. Lew Ford, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Bartlett, Nick Punto, and Luis Castillo have gone hitless in their at-bats against "King Felix."
Red Sox (Matsuzaka) -150 at Blue Jays (Chacin): This line is going to be up to -170 or -180 by the first pitch, so take advantage of it now. I'll be back with more picks and analysis later, but I wanted all of my readers to jump on this valuable pick before the public increases the odds throughout the day...If you're now reading this for the first time, the line is now at -160. Hit it now. Matsuzaka has been very good in his two starts this year: 14 IP, 14 H, 2 BB, 4 ER, 14 K. His loss to Seattle last Wednesday can be explained by the fact that opposing pitcher Felix Hernandez was lights out, and there was a lot of pressure on Matsuzaka: it was his first game at Fenway, and he happened to be facing Japanese icon Ichiro Suzuki. Matsuzaka also has an advantage tonight due to Toronto's injury-depleted lineup. Starters Troy Glaus and Reed Johnson are both on the disabled list. Closer B.J. Ryan is also out, which alters everyone's respective roles in the bullpen. Blue Jays' starter Gustavo Chacin has been just okay against the Red Sox' batters in their 144 plate appearances against him: .277 BA, .347 OBP, .385 SLG. David Ortiz has two homers in 24 ABs versus Chacin, who has given up six runs in 11 innings so far this year.
Padres (Maddux) -120 at Cubs (Miller): Wade Miller didn't pitch well in his only start of the year (vs. Milwaukee on April 8): 4 IP, 9 H, 6 ER. He hasn't been a regular starter since 2003, when he posted a 4.14 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 187.1 IP. Meanwhile, Greg Maddux has been sharp so far in 2007: 11.1 IP, 11 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 10 K. Only five of the Cubs' batters in the lineup today have faced Maddux enough to develop any significant trends. If you average their numbers, they have a .292 BA, .330 OBP, and .357 SLG against the future Hall of Famer. That's not terrific, but the Padres should be able to put enough runs on the board against Miller to get Maddux the win.
Pirates (Gorzelanny) at Cardinals (Wainwright) -1.5 runs (+125): Last night, the Pittsburgh Pirates got their second win in two years at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals will try to prevent the Pirates from taking the second of a two-game set this afternoon. Pittsburgh will send southpaw Tom Gorzelanny (1-0, 1.50) to the hill versus the hard-throwing Adam Wainwright (1-0, 1.98). Although Gorzelanny had a great outing against the Cardinals last Tuesday, he failed to factor in that decision and will need to pitch very carefully today to avoid the dangerous bats of Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen. The slow start of Pujols has probably influenced the public's opinion of the Cardinals in a negative way. Against a lefty like Gorzelanny, Pujols could be in for a feast. Wainwright has been solid through 13.2 innings this year, going at least six innings in both starts, and he has a nice history of stopping the Pirates' most dangerous hitter, Jason Bay (0-for-4 against Wainwright).
Mets (Glavine) -120 at Phillies (Garcia): Glavine's been very good in his three starts this season: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP. Against the Phillies, Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell have had success, while Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have struggled. Rollins has an amazing six homers in just 66 at-bats against Glavine, and Burrell has gone deep four times in 63 at-bats. On the other hand, both Utley and Howard have hit below .200 against Glavine. For the Phillies, Freddy Garcia is making his first start of the year after nursing a biceps injury; as a result, it's unknown whether he's 100%. Garcia has struggled in his career against Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran. Delgado has a .357 BA, .455 OBP, and .786 SLG versus Garcia. And Beltran's numbers are even better: .429 BA, .469 OBP, .857 SLG. Glavine's the safe pick in this one, as Garcia could struggle in his first game back.
Braves (Smoltz) -1.5 runs (-130) at Nationals (Williams): Continuing with the trend of picking the Big Three Aces from the 1990s Braves' teams, I'm taking John Smoltz, who pitched well in a loss to the Nationals last Thursday: 8 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB. Ryan Zimmerman and Austin Kearns are the only regulars in the Nationals lineup who have had success against Smoltz; everyone else is near or below the Mendoza line (.200 BA). The Braves only scored one run on five hits last night, and that offense is too good to stay in a slump for long. Opposing pitcher Jerome Williams has lost both of his starts this year, as he's given up ten hits and six walks in 11 IP. Williams played most of last year at the AAA level, and he didn't fare too well: 111.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 1.61 WHIP.
Rangers (Tejeda) +130 at White Sox (Garland): The White Sox have been struggling offensively, and it won't help that their regulars have never faced Robinson Tejeda. Tejeda was terrific against the Red Sox before laying an egg last week against the Devil Rays, but it's tough for hitters to face a pitcher with good stuff for the first time. And the Rangers could score a lot of runs off of White Sox starter Jon Garland, as cleanup hitter Mark Teixeira has absolutely owned him. Teixeira has 15 hits in 34 at-bats against Garland, and ten of those hits have gone for extra bases (four homers and six doubles). When looking at Garland's career numbers, his excellent 2005 (3.50 ERA, 1.17 wHIP) seems to be an abberration. And even though he won 18 games last year, he posted a 4.52 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
Marlins (Mitre) vs. Astros (Oswal) -1.5 runs (even): Marlins' starter Sergio Mitre is the poster boy for the theory that expansion has diluted the pitching talent in baseball. In 172.2 IP at the major-league level, Mitre has a 5.91 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. So far this year, he hasn't shown much improvement: 11 IP, 16 H, 5 ER, 4 BB. Meanwhile, Roy Oswalt is coming off o####utsy win at Philadelphia, in which the ace braved windy conditions and lots of cheap hits. Oswalt allowed six earned runs in five innings, but he deserved the win considering that any other pitcher would've given up at least ten runs in the same situation.
Giants (Cain) -110 at Rockies (Hirsh): Rockies' starter Jason Hirsh has begun the year well: 11.2 IP, 12 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 11 K. But he's never pitched at Coors Field, and his first two starts came in pitching parks (at San Diego and at LA). Meanwhile, Matt Cain has been absolutely filthy this season: 13 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 10 K. The walks need to go down, but as long as hitters can't make solid contact against him, Cain should be able to pitch well in even the toughest hitters' parks. Also, the Giants' offense has been hot lately, so Cain should finally be able to earn a much-deserved win tonight.
Angels (Weaver) at A's (Gaudin) Even: Although
the Angels and the Athletics both have 6-7 records, the Halos have been
in a total tailspin lately, losing 4 in a row. During the Boston
series, the Angels were outscored 25-3. When Vladimir Guerrero was
plunked yesterday on the wrist by a Josh Beckett fastball, the Angels
not only lost their best hitter overall, but the one hitter on their
squad who has more than one hit off tonight's A's starter, Chad
Gaudin. Guerrero should remain sidelined for at least the next couple
of days, leaving the Angels high and dry without their number-one run
producer. In the noisy confines of McAfee Coliseum, Gaudin will have
the support of the boisterous Oakland fans. Gaudin has performed well
in place of the injured Esteban Loaiza, throwing 10.2 innings while
allowing only 3 ER and 8 hits. In that same span, Gaudin has
accumulated an impressive 3/1 K/BB ratio. The Angels will counter with
the fragile Jered Weaver, who will be making his first start of the
year after opening the season in the DL with tendinitis in his right biceps.
Weaver had an impressive rookie campaign last season (11-2, 2.56), but
will probably be a little rusty tonight as he gets himself
re-acclimated to facing big-league hitters.
Twins (Ortiz) -110 at Mariners (Weaver): One
glance at Jeff Weaver's line from this year is enough to tell you
he's horrible, but how bad is he really? Well, through two innings of
work, he's been pounded to the tune of seven hits, seven runs and one walk. Allow
me to remind you that this is through two innings. Twins' hitters Justin
Morneau, Joe Mauer and Torii Hunter (.455 against Weaver) must be
chomping at the bit to get a piece of Weaver. Tonight, 33-year-old
veteran Ramon Ortiz will get the ball for Minnesota. The Twins must
love what Ortiz has done in his first two outings, throwing 15 innings
while allowing only three runs. Keep in mind that Ortiz accomplished this
task in part versus one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, as
he limited the Yankees to three hits and one run in eight innings. If Ortiz can
perform like this against New York, he should be able to match the feat
against the Mariners' miserable offense.
Angels (Santana) +170 at Red Sox (Beckett): Red Sox' starter Josh Beckett has fared well against the Angels' hitters in their 121 plate appearances against him: .218 BA, .296 OBP, .300 SLG. And he's been dominant in his 12 innings this year (two wins), as he's only allowed four hits, two runs, and four walks, while striking 13 batters. But is this the "real" Beckett, or is it the one who had a 5.02 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 204.2 IP last year? My guess is that he's somewhere in between. Meanwhile, 24-year-old Ervin Santana struggled last week against Cleveland after dominating Texas in his first start. In the Red Sox' 60 plate appearances against Santana, they've accrued a .288 BA, .383 OBP, and .577 SLG. But Santana's a young pitcher who's coming off his first full major-league season, in which he posted a 4.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 204 IP. Santana will continue to improve as the season progresses, and I like the line value here, as he could get a lot of run support from a formidable Angels' lineup if Beckett makes a few mistakes.
Braves (James) -1.5 runs (-110) at Nationals (Williams): In 11 IP in 2007, Chuck James has only given up one run on 11 hits and four walks. He's won both of his starts, including one against the Nationals on April 11, when he held them to five hits in six innings. James is looking to continue his successful 2006 campaign, when he posted the following stats en route to an 11-4 record: 119 IP, 3.78 ERA, 1.24 WHIP. Meanwhile, Jerome Williams has lost both of his starts this year, as he's given up ten hits and six walks in 11 IP. Williams played most of last year at the AAA level, and he didn't fare too well: 111.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 1.61 WHIP. Note: Matt Chico is now starting for the Nationals. He's given up 14 hits and three walks in just 8.2 IP, so the Braves are still the pick. But you might have to lay -120 or -130 odds.
Royals (Greinke) at Tigers (Verlander) -1.5 runs (even): The Royals have faced Justin Verlander 70 times, and they haven't been able to make good contact: .172 BA, .243 OBP, .219 SLG. That includes only three extra-base hits (all doubles). So far this season, Verlander hasn't given up a run in 13 innings. Although Royals' starter Zack Greinke has begun the year well, he's had trouble in his career against Gary Sheffield, Placido Polanco, Craig Monroe, and Ivan Rodriguez.
Mets (Maine) -110 at Phillies (Garcia): Freddy Garcia is making his first start of the year after nursing a biceps injury; as a result, it's unknown whether he's 100%. Garcia has struggled against Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran. Delgado has a .357 BA, .455 OBP, and .786 SLG versus Garcia. And Beltran's numbers are even better: .429 BA, .469 OBP, .857 SLG. Meanwhile, John Maine has shut down the Phillies in their 86 plate appearances against him: .237 BA, .322 OBP, .395 SLG. But Maine is looking to rebound from last week's start against the Phillies, when he surrendered six walks in just 4.2 IP. Maine should be fine, though, as walks weren't a big issue for him last year, when he posted a 1.13 WHIP in 90 IP.
Brewers (Capuano) -120 at Reds (Milton): Brewers' starter Chris Capuano has gotten off to a so-so beginning to the 2007 season: 10.1 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 5 ER, 10 K. But the real reason for this pick is Eric Milton's poor performances at Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark: 31 starts, 178 IP, 5.82 ERA, 1.45 WHIP. Milton struggled in his first start this year, giving up ten hits in 5.2 IP.
Marlins (Sanchez) Even at Astros (Rodriguez): Sanchez completely shut down the Astros in his start against them last year, as the current Astros went 1-for-15 against him, and their only hit was a single. In 2006, Sanchez posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.19 wHIP in 114.1 IP. On the other hand, Wandy Rodriguez had bad numbers last year: 124.2 IP, 5.66 ERA, 1.61 WHIP. In the Marlins' 28 plate appearances against Rodriguez, they have a .400 BA, .552 OBP, and .750 SLG.
Angels (Santana) +170 at Red Sox (Beckett): Red Sox' starter Josh Beckett has fared well against the Angels' hitters in their 121 plate appearances against him: .218 BA, .296 OBP, .300 SLG. And he's been dominant in his 12 innings this year (two wins), as he's only allowed four hits, two runs, and four walks, while striking 13 batters. But is this the "real" Beckett, or is it the one who had a 5.02 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 204.2 IP last year? My guess is that he's somewhere in between. Meanwhile, 24-year-old Ervin Santana struggled last week against Cleveland after dominating Texas in his first start. In the Red Sox' 60 plate appearances against Santana, they've accrued a .288 BA, .383 OBP, and .577 SLG. But Santana's a young pitcher who's coming off his first full major-league season, in which he posted a 4.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 204 IP. Santana will continue to improve as the season progresses, and I like the line value here, as he could get a lot of run support from a formidable Angels' lineup if Beckett makes a few mistakes.Note: Game postponed due to rain.
Devil Rays (Seo) at Twins (Bonser) -1.5 runs (+120): Jae Seo's been pretty awful this year: 9.1 IP, 19 H, 4 BB, 10 ER. And he wasn't too much better last season: 157 IP, 5.33 ERA, 1.61 WHIP. That WHIP is ominous, as it means that Seo's allowing more than three baserunners every two innings that he pitches. In the Twins' 99 plate appearances against Seo, they have a .315 BA, .369 OBP, and .533 SLG. Meanwhile, #### Bonser had a rough start against the Yankees last week, but that followed a very good performance to start the year. In 19 plate appearances against Bonser, the Devil Rays have a .263 BA, .263 OBP, and .474 SLG. Granted, that's a limited sample size, but Bonser's numbers from last year suggest that he's a lot better than Seo: 100.1 IP, 4.23 ERA, 1.28 WHIP.
Brewers (Sheets) -110 at Cardinals (Looper): In his first year as a major-league starter, former reliever Braden Looper has only allowed ten hits, four walks, and three runs in 13 innings. But he's had trouble against Milwaukee in their 66 plate appearances against him: .328 BA, .409 OBP, .397 SLG. Meanwhile, Ben Sheets has handled the Cardinals well in their 308 plate appearances: .257 BA, .297 OBP, .414 SLG. Sheets is hoping to return to his 2004 form, when he posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 237 IP. Injuries set Sheets back the last two years, but the word is that he's finally healthy and ready to re-emerge as a top-notch NL pitcher. Also, Sheets is pitching on seven days' rest, which is usually a good thing for a power pitcher.
Reds (Lohse) at Cubs (Lilly) -1.5 runs (+140): In 80 plate appearances against the very mediocre Kyle Lohse, the Cubs have a .481 BA, .500 OBP, and .896 SLG. That's almost laughable. So far this year, Lohse has allowed 16 hits and six runs in 13.1 IP. But that doesn't count all the fat pitches that hitters have just missed on. Last season, Lohse had a 5.85 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 126.2 IP, so there's not much hope for improvement as the season progresses. On the other hand, Cubs' starter Ted Lilly has been surprisingly effective this season: 13 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 14 K. And he's been good in the Reds' 55 plate appearances agaisnt him: .212 BA, .250 OBP, .327 SLG. Also, because of Lilly's stint in the AL, most of the Reds haven't seen much of him. A lefthanded pitcher usually has the advantage in those situations.
Yankees (Pettitte) at A's (Harden) -110: 25-year-old Rich Hrden appears poised to have a breakout year after last year's injury-shortened season. In 13 IP this year, Harden's allowed eight hits, four walks, and two runs, while striking out 13 batters. All signs are that he's regained the form of 2005, when he posted the following numbers in 128.1 IP: 2.53 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 43 BB, 121 K. Staying healthy is Harden's big task this year, but as long as he's at full strength, he's one of the best pitchers in the league. On the other hand, Andy Pettitte's been a bit uneven this year. In his first start against Tampa Bay on April 5, he allowed six hits and three walks in just four innings of work. But he bounced back in a win over the Twins last week, as he allowed only four hits and a walk in six innings. Pettitte's coming off of a subpar 2006 in which he posted a 4.20 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 214.1 IP for the Astros, and there's a question whether those numbers will continue to go up now that he's switched back to higher-scoring AL.
Giants (Cain) -waiting on line- at Pirates (Armas): In 67 plate appearances against Tony Armas, the Giants have rocked him:
.355 BA, .420 OBP, .565 SLG. Armas struggled in a loss to the Reds in
his only start of this season, as he gave up eight hits, five walks,
and six runs in just four innings of work. Armas' numbers from last
season don't offer any hope for improvement in the near future: 154 IP,
5.03 ERA, 1.50 WHIP. Meanwhile, Giants' starter Matt Cain has one of the best young arms in baseball. In his limited matchups against the Pirates, he's given up six hits in their 18 ABs, but only one went for extra bases (a double by Pirates' pitcher Zach Duke). In 13 IP this year, he's allowed six hits, six walks, and four runs, while striking out ten. Last year, Cain pitched 190.2 innings in his first full season as a major leaguer, and he posted the following stats: 4.16 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 179 K, 87 BB. The walks are a bit worrisome, but Cain's got such nasty stuff that it's hard for opposing offenses to bring the free passes around to score. Also, Cain's numbers were better in the final two months (3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), indicating that he's improving as he gains experience.Note: Game postponed due to rain.
Rangers (McCarthy) -105
at Mariners (Ramirez): AL West rivals, the Texas Rangers and the
Seattle Mariners, will play the rubber-match of their three-game set this
afternoon. Today's Mariners' starter, Horacio Ramirez, was the recipient
of a mulligan during his first outing of the season versus the
Cleveland Indians. In that game, which was eventually snowed out,
Ramirez pitched four innings while walking six and allowing four runs. Things
would have been much worse for Horacio had he not been the beneficiary
of three inning-ending double plays. As far as today is concerned, when
you have a mediocre pitcher on a team that hits an AL-worst .214 and
has the second worst ERA in the AL (4.79) playing against a lethal
Rangers offense, you start to see the value in the Rangers' -105
line. Ramirez has never faced the Rangers as a starter and he will have
to figure out a way to deal with Texas' 2B Ian Kinsler, who
has eight hits, including three homers, in his last 19 AB's. Brandon
McCarthy will toe the slab for the Rangers. McCarthy has done fairly
well in his previous appearances versus Seattle serving as a relief
pitcher and will look to duplicate his last outing against Tampa Bay,
where he threw six innings, striking out five and allowing only two earned
runs. This line is a bit surprising and there is good value on the
Rangers today.
Padres (Young) -110 and
Dodgers (Wolf): Tonight's ESPN game of the week features NL West rivals, the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Both teams are 7-4 and tonight's game could determine who is leading
the division, should the Diamondbacks lose to the Rockies this
afternoon. The Padres will give the ball to Chris Young (1-0, 2.13 ERA), and the Dodgers will counter with Randy Wolf (1-1, 3.75 ERA).
Young will attempt an incredible feat in tonight's game as he will be
going for his 26th straight win on the road, which would be a new major-league record. Tonight will mark Wolf's first start against San Diego
since 2003. He will need more than luck on his side facing Padres'
slugger Adrian Gonzalez and the rowdy Giles brothers, Marcus and
Brian. If this game ends up being close and going late, the Padres
have a big advantage in that their bullpen has been next to unhittable
this year. San Diego closer Trevor Hoffman has baffled the Dodgers for
years, as they've managed only 21 hits 108 AB's (.194) against him,
with 14 of those hits being singles.
