My girlfriend works for a museum and had been pressing me to take her to Washington, DC so she could check out all the museums that make up the Smithsonian. I had no idea there were so many. I mean sure, we all know Aerospace and Natural History, but there are so many more. I don’t think I had set foot in a museum since I graduated college, now here I was spending a weekend going from one to another. Needless to say, boredom set in rather quickly. Couple that with a slow sports weekend (All-Star games do not count as sport) and I knew I was in trouble. Thankfully I found a bookstore that carried all the Fantasy Baseball guides. I have a few leagues that require my undivided attention and so I poured over the guides for hours and hours, much to my girlfriend’s chagrin. So here I am, riding the train back to New York, my girlfriend is not speaking to me so I was thinking that I would take a few moments to share with you some of my thoughts on the upcoming baseball season as it relates to your fantasy drafts.

As an aside, there are two non-sports related items I wanted to bring up. First, I don’t know what was going on in Washington this weekend but there seemed to be a convention of people dressed as elves, gnomes, wizards, and fairies. They were everywhere, on every street, in every Metro. Never before have so many virgins gathered in one place at one time. Second, if you are going to travel between Washington and New York I highly recommend the train over flying. Sure, it takes a little longer, three hours compared to one, but the stations are much easier to get to and from than the airports and getting through security at a train station is about a third as annoying as dealing with an airport. Also the scenery is ten times better (until you get to New Jersey) and the entertainment value of the passengers is exponentially higher.

Anyway, onto Fantasy Baseball. What I’m going to do here is list a few players who I think you should stay away from like sobriety stays away from Lindsey Lohan and others who you should take in their place, and yes, I will explain myself. I’m also going to have a full baseball preview blog and some of the comments that I make here will be explained more in depth in that blog, so I invite you to check back for that.

Buyer Beware

Catcher - Jason Varitek, Joe Mauer

At first glance the Red Sox captain had a decent season last year (.255 17hr, 68 rbi) but there were times when he was feast or famine. Another year older Varitek’s numbers have started to taper off over the last couple of years. He’s in a very good lineup and so he will get his RBI chances, but to me, he should be an option only if you find yourself in the later rounds without a catcher.

Mauer has never been much of a power source for Fantasy owners, but what is more troubling is the fact that he now seems unable to stay on the field. The Twins may use him more this season as a DH than behind the dish, and if so then he is a worthwhile pick-up since a catcher eligible player who doesn’t catch is fantastic (see Craig Wilson circa 2006 for the Pirates), but his nagging injuries make him a player I would stay away from until the later rounds.

First Base - Jason Giambi, James Loney, Carlos Pena

The Yankees will go into this season with Hideki Matsui likely to get the lion’s share of at bats as the Designated Hitter which means the Giambino will have to play First Base a lot if he plans to get any at bats. At this stage there is absolutely no reason to think that Giambi’s body can hold up to playing the field so the odds are pretty good that he’s going to spend more time on your disabled list than in your lineup.

Pena had a fantastic year last season for Tampa Bay, but prior to 2007 he was a bust of epic proportions. Did he put it all together? Was he just a late bloomer? These are all possibilities, and I’m not saying he isn’t worth taking, but I would not take him as early as his numbers from last season would indicate. Save him for a late round pick up and don’t get too upset if someone else in your league takes him first. There are plenty of guys at the position.

James Loney falls into a rough circumstance. His new manager, Joe Torre, has developed an unusually short leash with his young players over his final few seasons in New York. The Dodgers did not bring Torre in to groom young players, they brought him in to get the team into the playoffs. To me that means that Loney will likely lose playing time to the likes of Jeff Kent and Nomar Garciaparra, neither of whom have the range to play anywhere other than first at this stage. For that matter, I fully expect Loney to be traded sometime this season.

Second Base - Dan Uggla

For fantasy purposes there are really only a couple of second basemen who bring anything to the table; Robinson Cano, Dan Uggla, Chase Utley, Brandon Phillips, Ricky Weekes, Howie Kendrick, Brian Roberts, and Ian Kinsler. That said, Uggla is in a tough spot. I mean look at it this way, with Miguel Cabrera now in Detroit, if you were a starting pitcher would YOU let Dan Uggla beat you? No, of course not. So what makes you think real pitchers will either. And that brings us to…

Short Stop - Hanley Ramirez

Easily the most controversial call thus far, as most of the mock drafts I’ve seen have Ramirez as a first round pick. For much the same reason I would stay away from Uggla I would be skittish when using a high pick on Ramirez. He will still get on base and still steal his bases, but who is going to drive him in? Josh Willingham? Mike Jacobs? Seriously, those are the middle of the order guys that the Marlins are going to run out there. Unless Jeremy Hermida has an extreme turn around and proves he can stay healthy for a year, the Marlins may be one of the worst offensive teams in baseball which means Ramirez is not likely going to duplicate last year’s near MVP performance.

Third Base - Troy Glaus, Josh Fields

To look at it you would think that Glaus would be in the perfect situation, moving from the turf of Toronto to the natural grass of St. Louis and batting in a lineup with Albert Pujols, but Glaus has to stay on the field to be effective, and I don’t see it happening. In the NL he won’t be able to DH on days when his chronic foot problems act up on him and given how deep third base is around the league I would just pass on Glaus at this point.

For Fields, this all depends on what the White Sox do with Joe Crede. If he is traded early on in the spring then go ahead and grab Fields, but until then we have no way of knowing who is going to get the majority of playing time at the hot corner, so I would stay away from him.

Outfield - Hideki Matsui, Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand

As I said earlier, all indications from the Yankees are that Matsui is going to get the majority of the DH duties this year, but you can’t get away from the fact that over the last couple of years injuries have become a major factor with Matsui. Couple that with the fact that he had off-season knee surgery (minor or not surgery is still surgery) and I just don’t have a good feeling about Godzilla (and I’m a Yankee fan).

Andruw Jones had such a bad year for Atlanta last season that not even Scott Boras could drum up a huge contract for him this winter. He is in Dodgerland trying to re-establish himself as an elite player. To be honest, I don’t know if he can. The NL West has some of the biggest ballparks in baseball and I’m not sure that the idea of having to re-establish himself will sit well with Jones. There are many who thought the pressure of being in a contract year is what led to his down season, how is this any different?

Rowand is a gritty, gutty player who any team would love to have. What he is not is a middle of the order slugger. I’ll get more into the San Francisco offense in a second, but the idea that Aaron Rowand is going to be a big HR/RBI guy is insane. That’s not who he is. In addition, the guy has been throwing his body around like a crash test dummy for the last five years, as he enters his 30s the body tends to rebel against that sort of treatment. Look for injuries to start creeping up and for Rowand to start spending time on the bench.

Pitchers - Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Joe Borowski

I want to start by saying that I think Cain and Lincecum are terrific talents and if they were on any other team I would suggest snatching them up. But they’re on the Giants and since they are on the Giants they both get warning labels. The San Francisco Giants’ offense might set new records for futility this season, and if you think I’m overstating it consider the following things: 1. Benji Molina is slated to be their clean-up hitter, and 2. They are trying desperately to get Joe Crede from Chicago because of how much of a boost it will give their offense. Need I say more? Look, I applaud the Giants for moving on from Bonds, but bringing in Aaron Rowand and thinking that makes up for the offense is insane. Unless Cain and Lincecum shut out opponents every time out, they are not going to get more than ten wins each.

Felix Hernandez is a tremendous pitcher, when healthy, but he’s never healthy. Don’t get sucked in by his potential and take him too early, trust me when I tell you that you’ll be sitting there every week cursing his name. Last season I had Hernandez, Rich Harden, Huston Street, and Randy Johnson on my team and week after week I wanted to jab a pen in my eye whenever I saw the words “scheduled to make a rehab start.” By the way, as I’m typing this I’m listening to Rooftops by Lost Prophets, I strongly suggest it to anyone looking for their own theme music. My alternative is to listen to the three screaming infants on the train. Here’s an idea people, if you don’t know how to keep your kid quiet on the train either don’t have kids or don’t take trains. Screaming children are the best ad for birth control ever. I mean just looking at the faces of the people who don’t have earphones on right now I can see that about 75% of them are considering going with abstinence from here on out.

Borowski, the Cleveland closer, was among the league leader in saves, so that’s a good thing right? Well yes and no. It’s good if you had Borowski last year, but not so much if you were planning to use a high pick on him this time around. To put it as politely as possible, Borowski is garbage, he pitched to an ERA of nearly 5, struck out no one and the fact that he got saves is a miracle of biblical proportions. I fully expect one of the Rafaels in Cleveland’s bullpen to supplant him by June as the Tribe’s closer. Then again, Eric Wedge is not the smartest manager in the game so he may just sink or swim with Borowski.

In fact, you shouldn't be looking for a closer anywhere in your first five or six picks. With the exception of a few guys, closers are interchangable and will likely change a dozen times through the course of the season. So if you miss out on Rivera or Papelbon or Wagner don't rush out and grab up Francisco Rodriguez just because you're afraid of him coming off the board. Better to take a player you really need and want and grab a Joakim Soria or Rafael Soriano - guys who MIGHT close - down the line.

Well now that I’ve told you who not to pick I figure fair’s fair and I should give you some guys to consider who may not be getting all the ink.

Catcher - John Buck

I agonized over this choice for a while. On the one hand I wanted to suggest the Cubs’ Giovanni Soto, but after taking Chris Ianetta last year and feeling my heart sink as he lost more and more playing time to Yorvit Torrelba I’ve given up on rookie catchers, especially ones being managed by Lou Pinella who loathes rookies in a way I have never seen. Buck on the other hand will give you some good home run numbers and doesn’t seem to get hurt much. His average might leave you a little short, but lets face facts, catcher and second base are probably the two thinnest positions for fantasy owners right now so unless you wind up with Jorge Posada, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann or Jarrod Saltalamaccia you’re pretty well boned.

First Base - Andy Phillips

The one time Yankee back-up signed this winter with the Reds and has a shot to win the first base job this spring. He’s going to have to beat out prospect Joey Votto, but if he can, in that park, with regular at bats, Phillips should put up some numbers. Keep in mind that with AAA Phillips was a hitting machine for the Yankees, Of course he could just be a Quadruple A player, but I don’t think so, he really started to take hold of the position with the Yankees last season until an injury ended his season. Couple that with the fact that Cincy could make me look like a power hitter and you could be getting a real steal with Phillips.

Second Base - Asdrubal Cabrera

Before I get into why I would take Cabrera, here’s a break to tell you about what just happened on my train. The train was relatively full when it left Washington and we just pulled into Delaware. A woman with eight kids in tow marched in and started barking out that she needed her entire group to sit together. There aren’t eight seats left in the train let alone together, so needless to say she started throwing a fit when the conductor told her that they would have to take whatever seats are available. Who needs a movie when you’ve got this kind of entertainment.

As for Cabrera, he really came into his own in the playoffs last season where my girlfriend, a Red Sox fan, wondered if he was named after the evil cat in from the “Smurfs” that aside, you’re talking about a guy who is in a prime damage spot, between Sizemore and Pronk in the Tribe lineup. He should hit around .280 and score 100 runs with his eyes closed, possibly more if he opens them.

Short Stop - Miguel Tejada

After a disappointing season and steroid issues galore, Tejada’s name has been slipping all over the place. And while Ed Wade may have made a boneheaded blunder trading for him when he did, the bottom line is that Tejada now goes to a division with some of the worst pitching in baseball and a lineup where he’ll have tons of protection from the likes of Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence, and Carlos Lee. His power numbers might not spike too much, given Minute Maid’s dimensions, but his RBI numbers should climb with more chances.

Third Base - Mike Lamb

In spot duty with the Astros over the last couple of seasons Lamb has done very well, combining power and average. The problem with Lamb always was that he didn’t play enough to be a worthy fantasy player. Now that he’s going to be the Twins’ everyday third baseman that shouldn’t be an issue. Of course we have no way of knowing how Lamb is going to hold up playing everyday or batting against lefties, but I’m expecting somewhere between 20 - 25 HR with about 75 RBI. You could also give a look to Bill Hall of the Brewers who will be moving to the hot corner as Milwaukee tries to hide Ryan Braun’s glove in the outfield.

Outfielders - Michael Bourn, Shane Victorino, Wily Mo Pena

IF Bourn hits then he’s going to be a very valuable player. He’s got tons of speed and plenty of players behind him who will drive him in. If he doesn’t hit he’s going to be Juan Pierre. I prefer to think he’s going to hit.

The Flyin’ Hawaiian is going to make Philly fans forget about Aaron Rowand pretty quickly. He had a great season last year and I expect that this year, playing everyday, he’s just going to get better. Look for him to be among the league leaders in stolen bases this season.

When Theo Epstein traded Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena he knew that Pena could hit. The problem was that the Red Sox couldn’t find a place for him to play. His best position is probably DH but there are a lot of players in Boston who need to DH before we get to Pena’s turn. So the Red Sox went and sent him to Washington, where Jim Bowden is so desperate for hitters he is willing to let Pena play the field everyday. And to be fair, last year Pena kept up his end of the bargain. He is going to hit for a lot of power, strike out a ton and give you an average in the .250 range. But if you need a home run guy, you could do far worse than having Ole’ Wily Mo on your roster.

Pitchers - National Leaguers

As a rule when we get to the stage in the draft where I’m just filling roster spots and discover that I need pitchers I always stick with National League guys. When you're comparing an average AL Pitcher to an average NL Pitcher, nine times out of ten the NL pitcher will give you a few more strike outs and a lower ERA. The wins will be a wash, but we're talking about depth guys here, not your top of the line guys. The parks are bigger, the lineups are weaker, really it’s about the best advantage you can get.

Well folks, this has taken the better part of a few hours, the children are still screaming and it still appears as if I’m in trouble for having more interest in this than some stone that may or may not have been a plate 10,000 years ago. I hope this helps you with your upcoming fantasy drafts, unless you’re in one of my leagues, in which case please disregard everything you have just read.