Baseball season is well underway and we've got a few things to think about. Anyone who thinks that the Tampa Rays or Florida Marlins will be in it to win it down the stretch raise your hands? That's what I thought.
That said, there are some teams that could use some help and others that have help to give. No one is out of it, and no one is making the playoff push, so these have to be good, old fashioned trades rather than the salary dumps we've become used to. Anyway, without any further ado - here we go:
1. New York Yankees get Ted Lilly. Chicago Cubs get Hideki Matsui or Bobby Abreu. Why New York does the deal: Kei Igawa is awful, I mean unwatchably awful. Ted Lilly is mediocre at his best but even mediocre is better than awful. Matsui has been one of the Yankees only reliable hitters but the bottom line is that he's a DH on a team with too many DHs. Odds are that list of DHs will grow by one since it's likely that Posada will be back hitting before he's ready to throw, meaning the team will utilize him as their full time DH. That would, in turn, relegate Matsui to a bench role. Matsui has a full no trade clause so the Yankees may use Abreu here instead of Matsui.
Why Chicago does the deal: The Cubs are a good team but they are devoid of left handed hitting. Matsui (or Abreu) would turn that around for them. Financially it is about a wash for both teams, though Lilly is under contract until after the 2010 season whereas Abreu is a free agent after this year and Matsui's contract is up after 2009.
2. Cleveland Indians get Brian Wilson, Ray Durham and Matt Cain, San Francisco gets Ben Francisco, Adam Miller, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Trevor Crowe. Why Cleveland does it: Right now they're not hitting, but you have to assume that they will. What's more concerning is that Joe Borowski is an awful closer and Betencourt has been terrible filling in for him. Wilson is a young, legitimate closer and Cain would be a huge upgrade over Paul Byrd in their rotation.
Why the Giants do it: Cain is probably the only guy in this deal that it would hurt for the Giants to give up. That said, the deal would accelerate the rebuilding process in San Fran. The team is fairly devoid of top level young talent and in one move they could get four young, high cieling players, guys who could start for them right now.
3. Boston Red Sox get Omar Vizquel, San Francisco gets Craig Hansen Why Boston does it: Julio Lugo was a mistake, an epic mistake in the Edgar Renteria mold. He can't field and he's not hitting enough to make up for the fact that he can't field. Vizquel is on the downside of his career but he can still pick it. He would fit in well in the clubhouse over there.
Why San Francisco does the deal: Same reasoning as above. San Francisco is not contending and they lack high level talent coming up through the system. Hansen can replace Wilson (traded to the Indians in my scenario).
Any other trades you would like to suggest, I'm open to hearing.
I know, I know, technically the MLB season started last week with the Red Sox playing the A's in Tokyo - but to me that was not opening day. That was a clueless Bud Selig once again proving he has his head up his vertical smile - of all the cultures that we need to sell baseball to I'm thinking the Japanese are already hooked. How about having opening day affordable to underprivilaged American kids - since those are the people not taking up the sport anymore. Anyway, that is a different rant for a different day.
Here in New York, and around the country, there is some thought that this year will absolutely, positively, be the year the Yankees miss the playoffs. But here's the thing, I don't see it as so cut and dry.
If we assume that the Yankees, Red Sox, M's, Angels, Detroit, Indians, and I'll throw in Toronto are the teams that are going to be slugging it out for the playoffs (I know, I'm out on a limb there) and a trip to the WS then they all pretty much have the same issues.
The Yankees have a balky Pettitte, an old guy at the end in Moose, and two unprovens in Hughes and Kennedy. In the pen they've probably got the best setup/closer combo right now, but not terribly strong/proven behind them.
Boston has a balky Beckett, an old guy at the end in Wake, and two unprovens in Bucholtz and Lester. In the pen they have a great closer and a very good set up guy - but not much behind them.
Detroit has an old Rogers, Bonderman coming off a poor year, who knows what with Willis and little or no depth to go with them. They lost their two best relievers in Zumaya and Rodney and have an average closer in Todd Jones.
The Indians have their own Mussina in Paul Byrd, who knows if Carmona can repeat what he did last year. Westbrook is alright and Lee was so bad last year he spent the season in Triple A. They have the best pen but the worst closer in Borowski. I also don't like the approach to the off-season that Mark Shapiro took. The Indians came very close to the World Series last year and so he just sat back and returned exactly the same team. The last time I saw a GM who didn't win the World Series do this, it was Steve Phillips after the Mets lost the Series to the Yankees in 2000. It didn't pay off for the Mets and I don't see it paying off for the Indians either.
The Angels just lost Escobar for the year, Lackey is out for the first month of the season as is Scot Shields. Their opening day rotation will have Jon Garland as the number one followed by Ervin Santana and Jared Weaver who had up and down years last season - behind them are two complete unknowns in Joe Saunders and Dustin Mosely.
The Blue Jays rely a ton on three pitchers who can't stay healthy (Burnett, Halladay, and Ryan) they've already lost Casey Janssen for the year and Ryan is starting the year on the DL and not expected back any time soon.
The Mariners probably have the best rotation with Bedard, Hernandez, Washburn, Batista and Silva. And they have a very good closer in Putz and a really good set up guy in Morrow. And I say the Mariners "probably" have the best rotation because we have yet to see Felix Hernandez live up to his title of "King Felix" and Silva and Batista could as easily be good or terrible. I am also curious to see how Bedard handles being the ACE of a team that is actually supposed to contend rather than a team like the Orioles.
In the end, the regular season will not be decided by pitching, it will be decided by the lineups. If that rings true then I like the Yankees' chances of making the post season again.
So here are my picks: Boston Detroit Seattle New York
AL MVP - A-Rod AL Cy Young - Beckett AL Rookie of the Year - Joba Chamberlain First Manager fired - Eric Wedge
and I think Detroit will beat the Mets in the World Series
Here is the reaction from Ray's Manager Joe Maddon from the New York Post: "The other day when we were playing in Tampa, that play you saw at home plate was a good hard baseball play. What you saw today is the definition of a dirty play," Maddon said. "There's no room for that in our game. It's contemptible. It's wrong. It's borderline criminal and I could not believe they did that.
"That was a blatant attempt to hurt Aki. And it was set up. It was premeditated. It's all of the above," said Maddon, who was adamant that Duncan should be suspended. "I mean, I don't know what's the difference between that and a high stick in hockey, but it was that bad."
From Joe Girardi:
"Shelley has been taught as a player, when he's going to be out, go after the ball and that is what he did," Girardi said. "Shelley made a hard aggressive slide." Girardi would not classify whether or not the play was dirty without seeing the film on it, but did say that if it was dirty he would talk to Duncan.
Duncan's intent was to send a message - there's no question about that. And I'm not enough of a homer to call it a "good hard play" but reading Maddon classify it as borderline criminal does make me chuckle. Iwamura got a cut on the leg, and a small one at that, but it could have been much worse and if it had been, the person responsible for getting all of this going would have been Maddon. Not for insisting that his team play hard in spring training, but for the way he treated everything that happened after the collision as a joke.
If you go back to Saturday and the comments since then that Maddon has made, it seems to me (and granted I'm as slanted on this as a see-saw with a baby on one end and JaMarcus Russell - all 300 plus pounds of him - on the other) that Maddon almost enjoyed the attention and was using the incident to put himself on the map. I think that annoyed the Yankees more than the play itself and maybe added fuel to the fire.
As a lifelong Yankee fan I will tell you that one thing about this makes me feel good about the Yankees under Girardi. Under Torre retaliation was never part of the plan. The Boston Red Sox, over the last 5 years or so, have made a habit out of hitting Yankee hitters and they do so without fear or retribution or retaliation. A couple of examples: When Pedro was still with Boston, the first two batters in the Yankee lineup were Soriano and Jeter - Pedro drilled them both, knocked them out of the game, not a single Boston player was even made to feel uncomfortable at the plate. Last year, Julian Tavares was seen during a game telling Dice-K that if he hits the Yankees they will be uncomfortable - he wouldn't have done that if it meant that Manny or Ortiz would be forced to eat dirt in response. It just wasn't Torre's way. Well, if Maddon's intent was to send a message on Saturday that the Rays aren't a pushover in the AL East then I think Girardi's message was that the days of taking liberties with the Yankees are over.
By the way, Yankees and Tampa still have to play two more times this spring. Something tells me we're not done here yet.
The Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox are close to a deal that will send Coco Crisp to the Windy City for Jason Marquis and Sam Fuld. - source Chicago Cub Reporter
Not a terrible trade for either team, but a far better trade for the Cubs than the Red Sox. Coco Crisp will be effective as a back-up for the Cubs but Jason Marquis will be completely ineffective for the Red Sox. I understand that the idea is for him to step in and compete with Bartolo Colon for the rotation spot vacated by Curt Schilling and to serve as insurance against the back issues of Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield, but I have no reason to think that a pitcher who has been a poor National League pitcher since the end of the 2004 season will be effective in the American League East.
Well, on the heels of my Fantasy Preview, I thought I would give an entire breakdown on the teams as we head to spring training. I figure it is either this or talk about the NBA, and to be honest, I’m a little tired of the NBA right now. We’re going to start with the teams in the NL and AL East, Thursday I’ll have the Central and either Friday or Saturday I’ll give you the West. As always, comments are welcome and I’ll try to respond to them in a timely fashion, but feel free to talk amongst yourselves as well.
Atlanta Braves
Projected finishing position: Third place in the NL East
Key Additions: Mark Kotsay, Jair Jurrjens, Tom Glavine
Key Subtractions: Edgar Renteria, Andruw Jones
Player to Watch: Yunel Escobar SS
Thoughts: A full season of Mark Teixeira should help offset the loss of Andruw Jones’s bat, but the fact is that this team is going to struggle to score runs. They are hoping that Mark Kotsay can be healthy and give them a stop gap in centerfield until some of their prospects are ready to contribute on the major league level.
The bottom line for the Braves is that they are operating on a tight budget and will only go as far as their pitching can carry them. With that in mind they reached back to their glory days and brought back Tom Glavine. But this is not the same Tom Glavine who left them to sign with the Mets. The last time we saw Tom Glavine he was being booed off the mound in Shea after blowing a must win game that forced the Mets out of the playoffs and completed one of the worst late season melt downs in baseball history. So which Tom Glavine will show up in Atlanta?
Baltimore Orioles
Projected finishing position: Last place in AL East
Key Additions: Adam Jones, George Sherrill
Key Subtractions: Erik Bedard, Miguel Tejada
Player to Watch: Nick Markakis/Adam Jones
Thoughts: It is going to be a long year for the Orioles and their fans. As it stands, the “ace” of the Baltimore staff is the terribly inconsistent Daniel Cabrera and there is a growing thought that they will take over the cellar spot from the Tampa Rays in the AL East. If there’s one thing that Baltimore fans can take heart in it is that Peter Angelos seems to be slowly letting his baseball people do what they were hired to do. Moving Miguel Tejada should have happened a year ago, but thanks to Ed Wade’s complete foolishness in Houston they were still able to get a pretty good haul for him, and while the team will miss Bedard on the mound the odds are he was not going to be around when the team was ready to compete anyway. Jones has a chance to be a stud and given what the Twins got for a far better pitcher, it was a very good job by Andy MacPhail to get two players in Jones and Sherrill who will contribute right away. MacPhail also convinced Angelos to put aside his issues with super agent Scott Boras and draft and sign Matt Wieters, a Boars client, in last year‘s draft. Wieters is a top catching prospect and should be in the bigs by 2009 at the latest. If MacPhail is able to move Brian Roberts to the Cubs and get back some talent for him, the rebuilding process in Baltimore might not take as long as it would if left to Angelos and some of the yes men he had running his baseball operations in the past.
Boston Red Sox
Projected finishing position: First in AL East
Key Additions: NONE
Key Subtractions: NONE
Player to Watch: Jason Varitek/Curt Schilling/Clay Bucholtz
Thoughts: Much as it pains me, a Yankee fan, to say - Boston is probably going to walk away with the AL East. Want to hear a scary thought (scary that is unless you’re a Boston fan), Manny Ramirez is in his contract year. Can you picture what a highly motivated Manny Ramirez is capable of. If he shows up at Spring Training on time, in shape, and with a haircut, I might curl up in the fetal position and cry.
That said, Boston does have some issues. While I don’t believe Julio Lugo and JD Drew will be the offensive black holes that they were for much of last season, I don’t think they are going to be revelations either. They also had a couple of outstanding seasons from players who probably won’t reach that level again (Mike Lowell and Dustin Pedroia), and Varitek is another year older and starting to show wear and tear. Curt Schilling will miss much of the season and that’s alright, they can plug Clay Bucholtz in behind him with not too much of a dropoff, but what happens if Tim Wakefield’s back acts up as it has the last two years? What if Jon Lester misses time? My point, for those of you wondering if I had one, is that there isn’t much behind these guys who can come in and help out right away.
Florida Marlins:
Projected finishing position: Last in NL East
Key Additions: Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller
Key Subtractions: Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Cabrera, Miguel Olivo
Player to Watch: Hanley Ramirez
Thoughts: Well the one thing Marlin fans can take heart in is that they have no other players to trade. All you really need to know about where the Marlins are going this season is that Josh Willingham is penciled in as their cleanup hitter. They have two legitimate offensive players in Uggla and Ramirez, but the problem for both of them will be that with no one behind them, there is no reason for pitchers to give either of those two guys anything to swing at. In addition, the pick up of Maybin means that Ramirez, best suited defensively for the outfield, will remain at short stop for the near future. The “ace” of their rotation is Scott Olsen who has to grow up before he can be counted on to step up. But on the plus side, I hear they are inching closer to a stadium deal.
New York Mets:
Projected finishing position: First in NL East
Key Additions: Ryan Church, Brian Schnieder, Some guy named Johan
Key Subtractions: Shawn Green, Tom Glavine, Paul LoDuca
Player to Watch: Orlando Hernandez, Pedro Martinez, Ryan Church
Thoughts: The Mets got the steal of the winter in getting Johan Santana for nothing of consequence. And with Santana much of the sour taste left in the mouths of Met fans from last year’s collapse has been washed away. I fully expect them to storm through the NL East and go to the World Series (where they will face Detroit by the way) but there are some things that could derail their train long before it gets to a parade in New York’s Canyon of Heroes.
The Mets have no depth, none, for either their position players or pitchers. Mike Pelfrey will be the first guy to get the call if a pitcher goes down, but after that there’s nothing, and by nothing I mean Met fans will long for the days of Jose Lima and Jorge Sosa. To give you an idea of how bad it is, the Mets signed Tony Armas Jr. When you are signing players who were released by the Pirates it is a sign of trouble, especially when you have two pitchers, Martinez and Hernandez, who you can count on missing a month during the season. Met fans just have to hope it isn’t the same month. Omar Minaya is also taking a risk in the outfield where he is hoping that Ryan Church proves he can hit left handed pitching and that Moises Alou can stay healthy for at least 100 games this year. An offensive bounce back from Carlos Delgado would be nice too.
New York Yankees
Projected finishing position: Second in AL East (Wild Card Team)
Key Additions: Joe Girardi, Dave Eiland (pitching coach)
Key Subtractions: Joe Torre
Player to Watch: The Starters
Thoughts: Since the Yankees signed Jason Giambi after the 2001 season to replace Tino Martinez here is a list of players who have manned first base: Jason Giambi, Andy Phillips, Doug Mientkiewicz, Josh Phelps, Shelley Duncan, Miguel Cairo, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Tino Martinez, Gary Sheffield, Nick Johnson, Johnny Damon, Wilson Betemit. Sadly, nothing has changed this year. When players report to Tampa this week the Yankees will be auditioning Giambi, Shelley Duncan, Wilson Betemit, Morgan Ensberg, Jason Lane, Nick Green, Juan Miranda, Eric Duncan, and pretty much anyone else they can find to see if they can find someone to play the position on an everyday level. Giambi, though the most likely to win the job, is also no one’s favorite choice because his glove is, much like the little soaps people keep in their guest bathrooms, 99% decorative. My opinion, I think at some point during the spring the Yankees and nationals will swing a deal and Nick Johnson will head back to the Bronx. I’ll touch more on why I believe this during the section on the Nationals since really there is nothing much to talk about with that team anyway.
As for the pitching, question marks abound. How will Andy deal with the distractions of the whole Roger Clemens mess? He’ll be fine. Will Mike Mussina pitch better this year than last year? I have my reservations. Will Wang’s postseason performance and subsequent arbitration loss distract him this season? He doesn’t strike me as the type to get distracted so I think we can count on his 19 wins again. Will Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy make Brian Cashman look like a genius for hanging onto them or will they fall flat? Ok, this is a little more complicated. First of all I think if we’re going to compare Hughes and Kennedy to Johan Santana that’s a little unfair. I do think that the promotion of Dave Eiland to pitching coach from the minor leagues was a smart move. Eiland has worked with all of these young guys and knows their tendencies and how to fix them when they’re going wrong. Joba Chamberlain will start the season in the pen to manage his innings, but should be in the rotation by June or July (possibly in place of Mussina if he struggles early) and the Yankees have a ton of other highly thought of young pitchers backing up the starters. Look, a prospect is great to have, but only if he develops into a quality major leaguer. That said, as a Yankee fan I’m happier with the idea of Al Horne and Joba Chamberlain coming to help than the days of trotting out Tim Redding and Scott Erickson.
Philadelphia Phillies Projected finishing position: Second in NL East (Wild Card Team)
Key Additions: Brad Lidge, Pedro Feliz
Key Subtractions: Aaron Rowand
Player to Watch: Shane Victorino, Pat Burrell, Brad Lidge, Cole Hamels
Thoughts: Between their ballpark and their questionable pitching staff, The Phiting Phils will have to slug their way into the playoffs. With Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell, and Pedro Feliz that shouldn’t be a problem. Say what you will about Feliz’s shortcomings, the guy hit for power in a pitchers’ park in San Francisco in a far less conducive lineup. For the Phillies he’ll likely hit behind Burrell and should send a lot of balls home with fans. I don’t think the Phillies will miss Aaron Rowand all that much, Shane Victorino is a very good player and I believe that Rowand’s body is going to start breaking down on him after all the punishment he has put it through over the years.
From a pitching standpoint, much depends on the health and progression of Cole Hamels and whether Brad Lidge can regain the form he had prior to getting smacked around by the White Sox in the 2005 World Series. If he can’t, make no mistake, he’ll hear about it from the Philly faithful. Equally important will be how Brett Myers adjusts to going back into the rotation.
Tampa Rays
Projected finishing position: Fourth in AL East
Key Additions: Matt Garza
Key Subtractions: Delmon Young, Elijiah Dukes
Player to Watch: Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria
Thoughts: The Rays dropped the Devil from their name and came to the realization that all the young outfielders in the world won’t help you win a title if you don’t have the pitching. With Garza, Kazmir, James Shields, the Rays have a young trio who should be good for a very long time. Of course, with the Rays the question will be whether or not they can keep Kazmir under contract. Even so, they have done a good job of drafting impact players. First round pick David Price may make an appearance as early as this season. The unfortunate fact for the Rays and Blue Jays is that in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox they just don’t have the financial ability to compete over the course of a full season.
Offensively, the Rays are once again counting on their All-Star Carl Crawford, one of the most underappreciated players in the game. Beyond him the team is going hope that Carlos Pena’s rebirth last season was the start of something big and not just a one year wonder.
Toronto Blue Jays
Projected finishing position: Third in AL East
Key Additions: Scott Rolen, David Eckstein
Key Subtractions: Troy Glaus
Player to Watch: Vernon Wells
Thoughts: As I mentioned above, the Jays and Rays are saddled with an impossible task. To compete for a playoff spot they have to have everything break their way. That means they need the Yankees and Red Sox to fall apart and they have to remain injury free. Asking a team with AJ Burnett, Roy Halladay, Gustavo Chacin, Scott Rolen and Frank Thomas to stay healthy is a lot.
I’m not a huge Eckstein fan, and think the Jays would have been fine keeping John McDonald there, but he wasn’t a huge investment and may help bring some leadership to the clubhouse. I will be curious to see how Scott Rolen, who has shown himself to be a somewhat sensitive player, handles the Toronto management team of John Gibbons and JP Riccardi, two men who have never shied from throwing their players under the bus when things go badly. Aside from staying healthy, this team needs Vernon Wells to be the player he was prior to getting his big payday. There’s some thought that he wilted under the pressure of living up to that contract, well that pressure isn’t going anywhere. If the team gets off to a bad start, look for teams to come calling for Alex Rios, Lyle Overbay, and AJ Burnett (who can opt out of his contract after this season).
Washington Nationals:
Projected finishing position: Fourth in NL East
Key Additions: Paul Lo Duca, Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes
Key Subtractions: Ryan Church
Player to Watch: Chad Cordero, Nick Johnson, Dmitri Young
Thoughts: As the Nationals move into their new digs GM Jim Bowden has assembled an “eclectic” group of players to join the parade. Dukes and Milledge both come to the Nationals with plenty of baggage and Bowden and manager Manny Acta will be looking for the few veterans on the team to get them in line. Incidentally, this brings me back to my point about Nick Johnson. Bowden has conceded he can’t keep both Dmitri Young and Johnson on the roster this year, given that Young has battled his own demons in the past, Bowden and Acta might want to keep him around as a mentor of sorts for Dukes and Milledge.
On the field, the Nationals have lots of talented players and a ball park that should be a lot more willing to give up the long ball than RFK. Given a full season of at bats, Wily Mo Pena should hit the way Theo Epstein hoped he would when he traded Bronson Arroyo for him. Ryan Zimmerman is the face of the franchise and if he played anywhere other than Washington would be on par with David Wright in terms of national exposure and recognition. The downside to the new ball park will be that the Nationals’ pitchers will not have the safety net that RFK’s dimensions provided. The Nationals are essentially doing what the Rays did before them. They have assembled a young group of talented position players and now have the daunting task of developing the pitching to go with it. If Bowden would lower his asking price on closer Chad Cordero that would go a long way towards helping in the process.
Hello readers:
Born in New York in 1978 I was raised as a fan of the Yankees, NY Rangers, NY Giants and Knicks. I've stuck with them through the lean years and celebrated in the glory years. My sports knowledge is not just limited to the above teams however. Friends used to comment that if I were willing to spend half as much time on sports and use that time for work it would not have taken my five years to get through college and I would be a billionare by now.
I've taken to writing a blog because it gives me the chance to share wild and outside the box ideas with others - rather than just friends who are tired of hearing my propsals.
Hope you enjoy.
