Chad Finn writes a great column today for FoxSports.com, in which he discusses Johan Santana. He raises a question about Johan’s 2007 season-- was it the start of an early decline for the 28-year-old southpaw, or was it merely an aberration?

Here’s what he says:

“5. As good as he once was?

Now that the Twins appear on the verge of at least listening to offers for two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana, here's a question that must be asked: Is it possible that the Twins would be trading him at the perfect time? The numbers make the argument that the 28-year-old lefthander wasn't nearly as dominating last season as he had been in the previous three: his ERA (3.33) and ERA+ (130) were his worst since 2001, he allowed an AL-high 33 home runs, and his WHIP (1.073) was his highest since '03. Yet his down year, if one can even call it that, would be considered a career season for every pitcher in baseball save for Josh Beckett and a dozen or so others, and it's hard to imagine his market value would be affected. But given the ransom the Twins will demand — and undoubtedly receive — should they officially put him on the market, his potential suitors had better be certain his slight regression last season was an aberration, and not the subtle beginning of his decline.”

When Johan Santana burst onto the scene in 2003, he went 12-3 with an ERA of 3.07 down the stretch for the Twins, propelling them into the playoffs.

What he did from 2004 through 2006 put him in the category of top three pitchers of the decade, hands down, regardless of what team you root for and who’s name or logo is on your jersey or hat.

In that span, he went an astounding 55-19, with an average ERA of 2.71, striking out close to 750 batters and winning two Cy Young Awards.

However, in 2007, last year, he had what was his first down, or off, year of his blossoming career. He went 15-13, with an earned run average of 3.33 and allowed a career high and American League high 33 home runs allowed, and he was owned by the Cleveland Indians all season long. On the bright side, he did win the Gold Glove.

Finn raises a good point. Are the Twins dealing him because they know they can’t afford him, despite having a new ballpark set to open soon that will increase their revenue flow? Or are they moving him because maybe they know something is up and they are trying to sell high.

Compare him to one of my favorite guys, Dontrelle Willis. Two years ago when D-Train won 20 games, I would have slapped a bow on Phil Hughes for a chance to bring the D-Train to NYC. A lot of teams would have given top prospects for Willis. But now, after two sub-seasons, similar to the one Johan had last year, his value has dropped dramatically.

Could the same be happening to Johan? Was 2007 the start of a decline, or was it just an aberration?

If a team like the Dodgers are going to give up Andre Either, James Loney and Matt Kemp, or if the Red Sox will give up Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, or if the Yankees are going to send Philly Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera, wouldn’t we want to be certain that: a) he’s in fine physical shape and b) they could have a 72 hour window to negotiate a contract extension?

I would never send Wang, Cano or Joba over in the deal, but I would give up everyone else, as long as I knew that he could be screened for health first, preferably by Dr. James Andrews, and then I’d want him to sign a, say hypothetically, 5 year, $150M deal to keep him until he’s 34, so that way we know we don’t give up the farm for him just to see him leave us via free agency in a year.

Big trades like these are such a risk. Think of all the crazy trades of the last 10 years. A.J. Pierzinski from Minn to SF for Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano??? Or Heath Slocum from Boston to SEA for Varitek and Lowe back in 1997? Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr for Pedro Martinez?

Just ask Dan ’I traded Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano’ Duquette !!!!

If you are a Yankees fan, you have to love this time of year.

While I love the drama of a 162 game season that stretches from April until October, I really enjoy the off season, specifically the Hot Stove.

As of now, the Yankees general manager, Brian Cashman, has his work cut out for him. Lets do a shopping list  for Mr. Cashman to keep things prioritized.

1. Retain the Good ol' boys-- With A-Rod and Joe Torre having bolted the Bronx like a boatload of Cubans defecting in the middle of the night, the Yankees front office brass knows it has to do whatever it takes, back up the Brinks truck, to keep closer Mariano Rivera and catcher Jorge Posada.

Here's how I see it breaking down:

A) Rivera will become the highest paid closer in the history of the game.... at least until Frankie K-Rod hits free agency in a few years. The Yankees will end up signing the Sandman, in my humble opinion, a three year/ $46.5 M deal, three years at $15.5 per year. High? Yes. But they know that they need Joba Chamberlain in the starting rotation next year, and they know Mo still has 'a little go in his shooulder'. With his deal, he closes the old stadium, and pitches the first two years in the new one, all the while serving as a mentor to the army of young pitchers the Yankees are hording.

B) Posada will make them work for his services. I think declining to negotiate with him during the season and spring training, but making runs at A-Rod really upset him, more than who the manager is. And, Hip Hip Jorge knows that he is at the front of a weak free agent class. He knows the Mets will throw at least four, if not five years at him. However, in the end, he signs with the Yankees for four years, $50 million, working out to $12.5M a year. He also knows he will likely finish the last year, possible year and a half as a DH/1B.

2. 3B-- With Opt-Fraud gone.... thank god.... a new man is needed to hold down the hot corner. If you believed the Bubba Crosby joke of 2006, then yes, Virginia, Wilson Betemit is your opening day 3B.

But here's what really will happen:

A) If Cashman can convince the Marlins to come down from their asking price of one of the Yankees' 'Lethal Weapon III' pitchers, ie Joba, Phil or Ian, for Miguel Cabrera, then a deal will get done. If Cashman could pawn off, say, a package built around Alan Horne, Dellin Betances, Humberto Sanchez, Jeff Karstens and Brett Gardner for Cabrera, he would pull the trigger. But don't look for that trade to happen.

The Marlins have a highly regarded scouting program, a program that targeted Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez for Josh Beckett while managing to dump Lowell, who at the time of that 2005 November trade, was described by a scout as 'standing in quicksand both at 3B and home plate.' So do not expect them to be fooled.

B) The Johnny Damon for CHW Joe Crede trade, that was started by the talented writers at MLBtraderumors.com? Not happening. Maybe they'll snag Crede as a backup plan F, assuming he is non-tendered. However, Damon, after meeting Girardi for breakfast in Orlando this week, was told he will be leading off and playing LF for the Yankees this year. That rumor is dead as disco.

C) Scott Rolen-- at three years and $36 million? Not for our hot dog vendor from the box seats, which any bleacher creature will tell you...suck. I wouldn't take Rolen if all St. Louis wanted in return was Pavano's ####ed up Porsche.

D) Mike Lowell-- If he doesn't re-up in Beantown, let him get his four or five years of solid decline elsewhere. If they think he is Scott Brosius reincarnated, wake up... He is a aberration of that crummy little ballpark, where you or I could hit 15 home runs in 500 ABs.

And finally...

E) I'm grouping these two together b/c they make the most sense, thats why I saved them for last: Eric Chavez and Miguel Tejada. 

a1) Billy Beane has said he is thinking of blowing up the A's, once and for all. I say offer two mid-level prospects, a la the Abreu trade, to let him get out from under the Chavez contract, originally 6 years for $66M. He has 2 years and $22 M left. One rumor making the rounds was that Beane was interested in Giambi with his OBP obsession. With Giambi having one year at $21 M left and Chavez 2 yeras at $22M, do a straight up, with the NYY tossing in Tyler Clippard and $10M. Chavez is reportedly a great clubhouse guy, good defense at 3B, 20 or so HR, he's 29 years old but somewhat of an injury risk, but so is Giambi. Point is, won't cost much in prospects, like Miggy from Fla.

b1) Tejada is an even easier move, in my opinion. The Orioles are looking for relief and OF depth. Mark Feinsand of the Daily News, a fabulous publication, stated that the O's would be willing to move Miguel Tejada (two years, $26 M left-- $13M a year), for a decent deal. Feinsand imagines one of either Karstens/ Clippard or Sanchez, along with an OF prospect such as Brett Gardner and, believe it or not, make sure you are sitting, Krazy Kyle Farnsworth, would be enough to get this one done.

Miggy would make a great 3B, strong arm, power bat from the right, capable of 25-30 HR, and a work horse.  And any attitude questions will be dealt with quickly by Seargent Major Girardi.

3. Starting Pitching-- Paul Revere might as well be on his horse, lantern in hand, making his way east from Minnesota, screaming "Johan is up for sale, Johan is up for sale!"

The news dropped like Lindsay Lohan trying to walk a straight line for a sobriety test... Johan Santana is going on the market. He will reject the Twins second attempt at a contract extension and is expected to be placed on the market in time for the winter meetings. Teams such as the Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Angels, Orioles, Red Sox, White Sox will try to get him, but it has been preordained: Johan Santana will be traded to the New York Yankees.

For arguments sake, lets say the deal that brings Miguel Tejada to the Bronx consists of Humberto Sanchez, Kyle Farnsworth and Brett Gardner.

In order to get Johan, Cashman will initially offer Ian Kennedy, Jeff Karstens, Dellin Betances and Melky Cabrera. At that point, Minnesota will laugh and hang up. Cashman will wait one week, gauge the price, and then make the new offer:

NYY offers Ian Kennedy, Alan Horne, Jeff Karstens, and Melky Cabrera. Minnesota says they need to think about it.

The Yankees then say, one day later, final offer Phil Hughes, Alan Horne, Dellin Betances, Ross Ohlendorf and Melky Cabrera, to which the Twins accept for Johan Santana. Hate to see Phil go, but Joba is regarded higher in the organization, and when the best pitcher in baseball is one the market, at age 29, you get him.

The 2008 NYY starting rotation consists of Johan, Joba, Wang, Kennedy, and Moose. Hopefully Dandy Andy comes back for one more year, making either Moose or Kennedy fight it out for #5 and long relief.  And whats funny-- in five years, when Hughes is set to be a free agent, and Santana has become a number three pitcher, and the Twins can't afford Hughes anymore, guess who gets him in free agency?....Maybe I'm thinking too far ahead!

5. OF-- To make up the loss of Melky Cabrera (part of Santana trade) in the OF, you sign Torii Hunter to a 4 year deal worth $75 million. Low years, high money. Great glove, great clubhouse, good righty bat. OF of LF Damon, CF Hunter and RF Abreu is above aberave defense. And in two years, when Damon and Matsui are done, and next year when Abreu is gone, you start breaking in Jose Tabata and A-Jax.

Final results:

1. L Damon (LF/ PT DH)

2. R Jeter (SS)

3. L Abreu (RF)

4. R Tejada (3B)

5. R Hunter (CF)

6. S Posada (C)

7. L Cano (2B)

8. L Matsui (DH/ PT LF) or L Giambi (DH/ PT 1B)

9. R Duncan (1B/ PT RF/ PT DH)

Rotation: Johan Santana, Joba Chamberlain, Chien Ming Wang, Ian Kennedy, Mike Mussina--poss Andy Pettitte?

What do y'all think?

New York City - With visions of another AL East title dancing in his head, Yankees principal owner George Steinbrenner is not about to allow Yankees GM Brian Cashman to stand pat at the trade deadline on July 31.

With the New York media outlets daily offering trade rumors and gossip, and even some, ahem, New York post, going as far as to say that the Yankees won't make any moves, the question isn't WILL they make a move, the question should become WHEN will the Bronx Bombers make a move.

If the Yankees can maintain within three to five games of the Boston Red Sox for the next two weeks, I believe the Yankees will take an outfielder of lesser proportions (see below). However, if they were to drop to five and a half games or MORE behind of the Red Sox, I think Darth SteinVadar will order Cashman to deal AA pitching phenom Phil Hughes or A outfielder extraordinaire Jose Tabata. As of right now, these two guys are unavailable, and you might as well put J. Brent Cox on that list as well. From the Yanks themselves, I'd say both Wang and Cano are off-limits too.However, if the Yanks begin to falter, it will be George ordering Cashman to deal one of the few blue chips for a big name (see list below).

Here are some of the names of OF's associated with the Yankees. These would be considered the "lesser list", the players who play for teams that are a) out of contention; b) the salary of said player needs to be moved for monetary reasons; or c) none of the players would command a top prospect from the list that includes: Hughes, Tabata, Cox, Cano, and Wang. The following list of players would be had for a package of available players, such as Eric Duncan, Melky Cabrera, Bubba Crosby, Andy Philips, Matt White, Scott Proctor, or TJ Beam:

Second Tier Players (w/ current team listed)

Arizona Diamondbacks: Shawn Green, Luiz Gonzalez, Eric Byrnes

Kansas City Royals: Reggie Sanders

Philadelphia Phillies: David Dellucci, Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell (if the Yankees assumed the entire amount of $$ remaining on either contract for this year and next, neither of these players would require much in return. However if the Yankees asked Philadelphia to kick in some $$ in the trade, Phillies GM Pat Gillick could demand a blue chip. Burrell is owed $27M through '09, Bobby Abreu is owed $24M through '08)

Pittsburgh Pirates: Jeromy Burnitz, Craig Wilson

Chicago Cubs: Jacque Jones

Seattle Mariners: Raul Ibanez

Washington Nationals: Jose Guillen

Cincinatti Reds: Ken Griffey, JR (this one circles the Bronx and North Jersey papers every summer- what the hell, might as well throw him into the mix. If Reds GM Wayne Krivisky is dumb enough to send Austin Kearns to the Nats for two bottom of the barrel relievers, who knows what he is capable of...)

Top Tier Players:

Washinton Nationals: Alfonso Soriano

Milwaukee Brewers: Carlos Lee

Philadelphia Phillies: Aaron Rowand, Bobby Abreu (again, it depends how much money transfers hands on this deal)

Cincinatti Reds: Adam Dunn

Seattle Mariners: Ichiro Suzuki

THE ODDS: ( top three bold predictions, in order)

3. A Second Tier player - 20%- reasoning: I believe the Yankees will stay close to the Red Sox in the division, but I believe Steinbrenner, now getting older and more impatient, will demand Cashman to bring someone with a little more hype than Reggie Sanders to the Bronx in a tight pennant race. There are guys from that list I wouldn't mind seeing, for the right price, (Eric Byrnes, David Deullucci, Bobby Abreu ((again, AT THE RIGHT PRICE)), Jose Guillen), and then there are also players from that list I would not want to see as a Pinstriper, no matter what the price (Shawn Green, Ken Griffey JR, Luis Gonzalez, Reggie Sanders, anyone old and $$)

2. Alfonso Soriano - 35%- reasoning: This was always one guy I was sad to see go, even though it was for, cough. ahem, choke, the "best player in baseball", ahem... cough... wheez. I would love for Cashman to get him back. Yeah, he's a free agent, but he's 30, and the Yankees could lock him up in the offseason (5 years $75M) as an OF, especially with Gary Sheffield's $$ ($13.9M a year) off the books. And, I know he strikes out a lot, but he can hit for power, good arm, steals bases, good clubhouse personality, and the one factor that is a known plus about Soriano- he can play in New York city, something Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano, even Alex Rodriguez still haven't proven yet. Plus, if the Nationals drop any further, the price will begin to come down on him. Possibly, they could part with Melky, Duncan, TJ Beam, Proctor, and White, plus cash $1M, maybe. Remember, just last week the Nats sent a slew of relievers to Cincinatti, so they need some fresh, young, cheap bullpen arms and position players. He would be, in my mind, the ideal guy. Everyone assumed that Steinbrenner was saying Abreu was the guy he really wanted, but all he said was, "yeah, I like Bobby Abreu, everbody does.." So...

1. Bobby Abreu - 45%- reasoning: This one is tough. Allright, to pick up where I left off from above, everyone knows Steinbrenner loves home run hitters, and that's what he wants right now. They have enough "on-base" guys, with a top of the lineup with Damon, Jeter, Giambi- they need a power guy, a good defender, neither of which is Bobby Abreu. Ever since that stupid Home Run Derby last year, his swing mechanics have not been the same. However, I think that if the Angels, Tigers, Dodgers, or Mariners can beat the Yankees to Soriano, then the Yankees will feel the pressure to get Abreu. At that point, the question becomes at what price ? If they offer to assume his whole contract, then it is worth it to get him becaus ethey won't have to add any blue chips to the deal. However, if they bicker about the amount of money is owed, then Gillick will most likely demand Melky or Tabata. I think they could get away offering Duncan and TJ Beam for Abreu, but we'll have to see. The only ?? I have about Abreu is, how will he handle New York City ? NYC is a far cry from Philly...

So, to recap, I want Soriano, but if I have to, I'll take Abreu at a discount. To all Yankee fans out there, let me know what you think.... Of course anyone else is welcome to comment. Let's keep 'em positive, gentlemen. If you are going to accuse someone's trade idea as being ####, then justify it or submit your own.