Chad Finn writes a great column today for FoxSports.com, in which he discusses Johan Santana. He raises a question about Johan’s 2007 season-- was it the start of an early decline for the 28-year-old southpaw, or was it merely an aberration?

Here’s what he says:

“5. As good as he once was?

Now that the Twins appear on the verge of at least listening to offers for two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana, here's a question that must be asked: Is it possible that the Twins would be trading him at the perfect time? The numbers make the argument that the 28-year-old lefthander wasn't nearly as dominating last season as he had been in the previous three: his ERA (3.33) and ERA+ (130) were his worst since 2001, he allowed an AL-high 33 home runs, and his WHIP (1.073) was his highest since '03. Yet his down year, if one can even call it that, would be considered a career season for every pitcher in baseball save for Josh Beckett and a dozen or so others, and it's hard to imagine his market value would be affected. But given the ransom the Twins will demand — and undoubtedly receive — should they officially put him on the market, his potential suitors had better be certain his slight regression last season was an aberration, and not the subtle beginning of his decline.”

When Johan Santana burst onto the scene in 2003, he went 12-3 with an ERA of 3.07 down the stretch for the Twins, propelling them into the playoffs.

What he did from 2004 through 2006 put him in the category of top three pitchers of the decade, hands down, regardless of what team you root for and who’s name or logo is on your jersey or hat.

In that span, he went an astounding 55-19, with an average ERA of 2.71, striking out close to 750 batters and winning two Cy Young Awards.

However, in 2007, last year, he had what was his first down, or off, year of his blossoming career. He went 15-13, with an earned run average of 3.33 and allowed a career high and American League high 33 home runs allowed, and he was owned by the Cleveland Indians all season long. On the bright side, he did win the Gold Glove.

Finn raises a good point. Are the Twins dealing him because they know they can’t afford him, despite having a new ballpark set to open soon that will increase their revenue flow? Or are they moving him because maybe they know something is up and they are trying to sell high.

Compare him to one of my favorite guys, Dontrelle Willis. Two years ago when D-Train won 20 games, I would have slapped a bow on Phil Hughes for a chance to bring the D-Train to NYC. A lot of teams would have given top prospects for Willis. But now, after two sub-seasons, similar to the one Johan had last year, his value has dropped dramatically.

Could the same be happening to Johan? Was 2007 the start of a decline, or was it just an aberration?

If a team like the Dodgers are going to give up Andre Either, James Loney and Matt Kemp, or if the Red Sox will give up Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, or if the Yankees are going to send Philly Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera, wouldn’t we want to be certain that: a) he’s in fine physical shape and b) they could have a 72 hour window to negotiate a contract extension?

I would never send Wang, Cano or Joba over in the deal, but I would give up everyone else, as long as I knew that he could be screened for health first, preferably by Dr. James Andrews, and then I’d want him to sign a, say hypothetically, 5 year, $150M deal to keep him until he’s 34, so that way we know we don’t give up the farm for him just to see him leave us via free agency in a year.

Big trades like these are such a risk. Think of all the crazy trades of the last 10 years. A.J. Pierzinski from Minn to SF for Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano??? Or Heath Slocum from Boston to SEA for Varitek and Lowe back in 1997? Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr for Pedro Martinez?

Just ask Dan ’I traded Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano’ Duquette !!!!