Nov. 12, 9 pm est. -- With the rumor du jour being that Johan Santana may be placed on the trading block by the Minnesota Twins (see blog entry below) due to a weak free agent market in starting pitching, a rash of other ace pitching availability rumors are popping up like hits on Lindsay Lohan’s rap sheet at the Hollywood Police Department.

In the last week alone, names such as the Brewers’ Ben Sheets, the Rays’ Scott Kazmir, the A’s Dan Haren, the Orioles’ Erik Bedard, the Padres’ Jake Peavy and the Indians’ CC Sabathia have all surfaced in trade rumors throughout various media markets.

The theory is, a historically thin crop of available free agent starting pitchers, headlined by names like Carlos Silva and Bartolo ‘the Hutt’ Colon, is causing general managers far and wide to stick their toe in the scalding water boiling on the Hot Stove, gauging the market price for their top pitchers, with the potential opportunity to restack or retool a weak farm system by trading one elite pitcher to a team desperate for an ace and with prospects to spare, such as the New York Yankees and Mets, or the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Angels, for examples.

I want to break down the list of pitchers listed above, what their 2007 records were, how many years left on their contracts, how much money is still owed to them and the chances they‘ll be traded by the start of the 2008 season or the July 31 deadline of 2008 :

1. CC Sabathia, Cleveland Indians - A 27-year old lefty hander who led his team to the seventh game of the American League Series in 2007. Sabathia went 19-7 last year, with an ERA of 3.21 in 34 games started. He threw four complete games with one shutout, fanning 209 overall. Talks for an extension broke-off during spring training preceding this season. Sabathia has one year left on his contract at $8,750,000 before becoming a free agent before the 2009 season, next year. Cleveland is expected to make another substantial extension offer to Sabathia, but if an agreement is not reached, look for general manager Mark Shapiro to make a deal by the deadline next summer. He will not allow CC to hit free agency without getting something in return. The question is, with a Cy Young worthy season in 2007 and a possible strong season in his walk year could very easily price him out of Shapiro and the Indian’s payroll budget forecasts.

Chance He’ll Be Traded: I give it 99%. However, I say it will be closer to the July deadline, especially if he starts ‘08 hot and the Tribe as a team in the American League Central standings do not. He will net Cleveland a package worthy of anything Minnesota gets for Santana. Look for every team in the League to inquire, but the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Rockies will lead the pack on this one.

2. Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres - The 27- year old power right hander has been slicing and dicing the National League, specifically the N.L. West, for years. Last season, he all but locked up the N.L. Cy Young award, going 19-6 with a 2.54 ERA and 240 Ks. He allowed 13 home runs all year. San Diego GM Kevin Towers is most likely testing the waters on this one.

Chance He’ll Be Traded: I give it 10%. Towers would have to be blown away to give up his ace, I just don’t see this happening. Of course, if he is officially put on the market, I could see a feeding frenzy of National League teams bidding. He’s on the cheap for the next two years, owed $6 million in 2008 with a club option for 2009 of $8 million. If he can’t be resigned to an extension by the winter before the start of the ‘09 season, he could hit the trade block.

3. Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers - Sheets is 29, having been pitching for the Brew Crew since 2001, his rookie season. In an injury plagued season of 2007, Sheets went 12-5, with 106 Ks through 141 innings pitched, posting an ERA of 3.82 and giving up 17 long balls. His injury habits scare this writer, and a rumor just this week had him involved in a three way, going to the Yankees with Carl Crawford off to the Brewers and the Yankees sending the Rays prospects, presumably top prospects. I was floored to hear that. I figured the Yankees had learned their lesson on injury prone National League Pitchers making the jump to the AL ‘B-East‘ (see Johnson , Randall; Pavano, Carl; Wright, Jared; Brown, Kevin). Sheets is owed $11 million in 2008, then hit’s the opn free agent market after this next season. But buyer beware: Since 05, he hasn’t pitched over 156 innings.

Chance He’ll Be Traded: I give it 05%. I think teams will be in a sit-back-and-see mode with Sheets, knowing he is up for free agency after this season. If he goes 9-8, with an ERA north of 5 in 160 IP next season, he might not fare well on the open market, but if he strikes out 18 batters in a game again, posts a 17-8 record with an ERA of 3.85, he’ll be in business, an the first in line will probably be the Brewers, to resign him.

4. Dan Haren, Oakland Athletics - Since Haren came over to the American League in the Mark Mulder trade from the St. Louis Cardinals, he has gotten better every year. Last year, Haren led the A’s pitching with a record of 15-9, sporting an ERA of 3.07 in 34 games, striking out 192 while allowing 24 home runs. The 27-year old is a right hander with finesse, and his contract males him very attractive to possible trade partners. Billy Beane is talking about blowing up the A’s, and should Haren be put on the trade block, watch out: The Sox of both variety, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Cubs, you name ’em, they’ll come calling. Haren has proved his value as a strong number two in a veteran rotation if not an ace of a young rotation ( if say, paired with the Yankees in a rotation of Haren, Wang, Joba, Kennedy and Mussina assuming the Yankees parted with Hughes and other assorted parts to get him, for example purposes only, of course. However, he would look good in a veteran rotation such as the Braves, who already boast John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, and quite possibly will be adding Tom Glavine at the hometown discount in the coming weeks). Haren is owed $4 million in 2008, $5.5 million in 2009, with a affordable club option of $6.75 million in 2010.

Chance He’ll Be Traded: I give it 80%. If Beane is in fact serious about blowing up the A’s, look for him to trade Haren, Joe Blanton, Huston Street, Nick Swisher and without a doubt, Eric Chavez. This is how I could see a trade to the Yankees happening, the Chavez deal. Knowing the weak market for starting pitchers, and knowing the Yankees are looking for an ace and a third baseman, I could see him dropping Haren to the Yankees for a decent package, assuming they take Chavez off Bean’s payroll. Chavez is owed $11 million in 2008, 2009, 2010 and has a club option of $12.5 million in 2011. The more of Chavez’s salary that Beane wants to pay, I’m sure the better package he could get from the Yankees. Two ways for this to possibly go: either Beane gives NYY Haren and Chavez (and all his contract, a salary dump a la Bobby Abreu in 2006) for SP Humberto Sanchez, Chase Wright/ Jeff Karstens, and Brett Gardner. However, if he offered to pay, say half, of Chavez’s remaining salary (which would shock me, from the tight wallet of the Oakland A’s) he could maybe make out with an Alan Horne, or possibly Ian Kennedy package. There has also been rumors surfacing that Beane could want JASON GIAMBI back (!), so keep your ears to the road on this one… This could get interesting.

 And finally, my favorite…

5. Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay Rays - Why-- I don’t know. As long as I’ve watched baseball, I’ve always thought the Rays were a few starters and a closer away from being a monster. Especially after last year, with the emergence of Carlos Pena’s bat, and with that stacked outfield, the last thing I though I’d hear was that Scott Kazmir would be available in a possible trade. I always assumed they would finally wise up and trade the Carl Pavano of the Outfield, Mr. Rocco Baldelli himself, for a solid three or four, Jeff Weaver-type pitcher.

But hearing Kazmir COULD be up for grabs got me thinking…He has three years before he is eligible for free agency, versus the one year Santana has before he hit’s the open market. Its genius really…. Tampa knows that teams that have to drop three to four top prospects on Santana then have to be sure they can negotiate a contract extension with him before he hits free agency, in essence PAYING FOR HIM TWICE! So if you are, again, I’ll use the Yankees as an example, going to trade Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Alan Horne and Melky Cabrera for Johan Santana, then… you have to sign him to $150M over a six year period. At least…

But, if the Rays step in, and say, “Hey, Scotty isn’t as accomplished as Johan is, YET, but he’s 24, he’s got the makings of an ace, he OWNS the Red Sox every time, he’s three years away from free agency, and we’ll trade him to you for Phil Hughes, Alan Horne, and Jeff Karstens/ or Humberto Sanchez, because we already have enough outfielders and we need some young pitching….”

Last year, he was 13-9 in 34 games, with 239 Ks, 18 HR allowed and a miniscule AL ERA of 3.48. Oh yeah, did I mention he plays for the Rays? A team that won 66 games last year?!?!?!

Chance He’ll Be Traded: I give it 0-100%. You have to think the Yankees, or anyone for that matter wouldn’t at least consider it for a long while. Same goes for the Mets. Why give up all your young prospects when you can send Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber, and hold onto Lasting’s Milledge. Same with the Yankees and Melky Cabrera. We all know that the difference between, well, one of the differences, the Twins and the Rays in one will need a center fielder very quickly, while the other has a glutton of outfield talent.

Call me crazy… but I’d take Kazmir over Santana any day….And if they put him on the block, for real, I think he’ll fetch more offers than Santana. A team would control his rights for more years, and more teams could afford him, as opposed to Santana.

What a winter this could be…. Back with more as it unfolds…..

E. Shamus O. 

Chad Finn writes a great column today for FoxSports.com, in which he discusses Johan Santana. He raises a question about Johan’s 2007 season-- was it the start of an early decline for the 28-year-old southpaw, or was it merely an aberration?

Here’s what he says:

“5. As good as he once was?

Now that the Twins appear on the verge of at least listening to offers for two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana, here's a question that must be asked: Is it possible that the Twins would be trading him at the perfect time? The numbers make the argument that the 28-year-old lefthander wasn't nearly as dominating last season as he had been in the previous three: his ERA (3.33) and ERA+ (130) were his worst since 2001, he allowed an AL-high 33 home runs, and his WHIP (1.073) was his highest since '03. Yet his down year, if one can even call it that, would be considered a career season for every pitcher in baseball save for Josh Beckett and a dozen or so others, and it's hard to imagine his market value would be affected. But given the ransom the Twins will demand — and undoubtedly receive — should they officially put him on the market, his potential suitors had better be certain his slight regression last season was an aberration, and not the subtle beginning of his decline.”

When Johan Santana burst onto the scene in 2003, he went 12-3 with an ERA of 3.07 down the stretch for the Twins, propelling them into the playoffs.

What he did from 2004 through 2006 put him in the category of top three pitchers of the decade, hands down, regardless of what team you root for and who’s name or logo is on your jersey or hat.

In that span, he went an astounding 55-19, with an average ERA of 2.71, striking out close to 750 batters and winning two Cy Young Awards.

However, in 2007, last year, he had what was his first down, or off, year of his blossoming career. He went 15-13, with an earned run average of 3.33 and allowed a career high and American League high 33 home runs allowed, and he was owned by the Cleveland Indians all season long. On the bright side, he did win the Gold Glove.

Finn raises a good point. Are the Twins dealing him because they know they can’t afford him, despite having a new ballpark set to open soon that will increase their revenue flow? Or are they moving him because maybe they know something is up and they are trying to sell high.

Compare him to one of my favorite guys, Dontrelle Willis. Two years ago when D-Train won 20 games, I would have slapped a bow on Phil Hughes for a chance to bring the D-Train to NYC. A lot of teams would have given top prospects for Willis. But now, after two sub-seasons, similar to the one Johan had last year, his value has dropped dramatically.

Could the same be happening to Johan? Was 2007 the start of a decline, or was it just an aberration?

If a team like the Dodgers are going to give up Andre Either, James Loney and Matt Kemp, or if the Red Sox will give up Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, or if the Yankees are going to send Philly Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera, wouldn’t we want to be certain that: a) he’s in fine physical shape and b) they could have a 72 hour window to negotiate a contract extension?

I would never send Wang, Cano or Joba over in the deal, but I would give up everyone else, as long as I knew that he could be screened for health first, preferably by Dr. James Andrews, and then I’d want him to sign a, say hypothetically, 5 year, $150M deal to keep him until he’s 34, so that way we know we don’t give up the farm for him just to see him leave us via free agency in a year.

Big trades like these are such a risk. Think of all the crazy trades of the last 10 years. A.J. Pierzinski from Minn to SF for Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano??? Or Heath Slocum from Boston to SEA for Varitek and Lowe back in 1997? Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr for Pedro Martinez?

Just ask Dan ’I traded Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano’ Duquette !!!!