Nov. 12, 9 pm est. -- With the rumor du jour being that Johan Santana may be placed on the trading block by the Minnesota Twins (see blog entry below) due to a weak free agent market in starting pitching, a rash of other ace pitching availability rumors are popping up like hits on Lindsay Lohan’s rap sheet at the Hollywood Police Department.

In the last week alone, names such as the Brewers’ Ben Sheets, the Rays’ Scott Kazmir, the A’s Dan Haren, the Orioles’ Erik Bedard, the Padres’ Jake Peavy and the Indians’ CC Sabathia have all surfaced in trade rumors throughout various media markets.

The theory is, a historically thin crop of available free agent starting pitchers, headlined by names like Carlos Silva and Bartolo ‘the Hutt’ Colon, is causing general managers far and wide to stick their toe in the scalding water boiling on the Hot Stove, gauging the market price for their top pitchers, with the potential opportunity to restack or retool a weak farm system by trading one elite pitcher to a team desperate for an ace and with prospects to spare, such as the New York Yankees and Mets, or the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Angels, for examples.

I want to break down the list of pitchers listed above, what their 2007 records were, how many years left on their contracts, how much money is still owed to them and the chances they‘ll be traded by the start of the 2008 season or the July 31 deadline of 2008 :

1. CC Sabathia, Cleveland Indians - A 27-year old lefty hander who led his team to the seventh game of the American League Series in 2007. Sabathia went 19-7 last year, with an ERA of 3.21 in 34 games started. He threw four complete games with one shutout, fanning 209 overall. Talks for an extension broke-off during spring training preceding this season. Sabathia has one year left on his contract at $8,750,000 before becoming a free agent before the 2009 season, next year. Cleveland is expected to make another substantial extension offer to Sabathia, but if an agreement is not reached, look for general manager Mark Shapiro to make a deal by the deadline next summer. He will not allow CC to hit free agency without getting something in return. The question is, with a Cy Young worthy season in 2007 and a possible strong season in his walk year could very easily price him out of Shapiro and the Indian’s payroll budget forecasts.

Chance He’ll Be Traded: I give it 99%. However, I say it will be closer to the July deadline, especially if he starts ‘08 hot and the Tribe as a team in the American League Central standings do not. He will net Cleveland a package worthy of anything Minnesota gets for Santana. Look for every team in the League to inquire, but the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Rockies will lead the pack on this one.

2. Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres - The 27- year old power right hander has been slicing and dicing the National League, specifically the N.L. West, for years. Last season, he all but locked up the N.L. Cy Young award, going 19-6 with a 2.54 ERA and 240 Ks. He allowed 13 home runs all year. San Diego GM Kevin Towers is most likely testing the waters on this one.

Chance He’ll Be Traded: I give it 10%. Towers would have to be blown away to give up his ace, I just don’t see this happening. Of course, if he is officially put on the market, I could see a feeding frenzy of National League teams bidding. He’s on the cheap for the next two years, owed $6 million in 2008 with a club option for 2009 of $8 million. If he can’t be resigned to an extension by the winter before the start of the ‘09 season, he could hit the trade block.

3. Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers - Sheets is 29, having been pitching for the Brew Crew since 2001, his rookie season. In an injury plagued season of 2007, Sheets went 12-5, with 106 Ks through 141 innings pitched, posting an ERA of 3.82 and giving up 17 long balls. His injury habits scare this writer, and a rumor just this week had him involved in a three way, going to the Yankees with Carl Crawford off to the Brewers and the Yankees sending the Rays prospects, presumably top prospects. I was floored to hear that. I figured the Yankees had learned their lesson on injury prone National League Pitchers making the jump to the AL ‘B-East‘ (see Johnson , Randall; Pavano, Carl; Wright, Jared; Brown, Kevin). Sheets is owed $11 million in 2008, then hit’s the opn free agent market after this next season. But buyer beware: Since 05, he hasn’t pitched over 156 innings.

Chance He’ll Be Traded: I give it 05%. I think teams will be in a sit-back-and-see mode with Sheets, knowing he is up for free agency after this season. If he goes 9-8, with an ERA north of 5 in 160 IP next season, he might not fare well on the open market, but if he strikes out 18 batters in a game again, posts a 17-8 record with an ERA of 3.85, he’ll be in business, an the first in line will probably be the Brewers, to resign him.

4. Dan Haren, Oakland Athletics - Since Haren came over to the American League in the Mark Mulder trade from the St. Louis Cardinals, he has gotten better every year. Last year, Haren led the A’s pitching with a record of 15-9, sporting an ERA of 3.07 in 34 games, striking out 192 while allowing 24 home runs. The 27-year old is a right hander with finesse, and his contract males him very attractive to possible trade partners. Billy Beane is talking about blowing up the A’s, and should Haren be put on the trade block, watch out: The Sox of both variety, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Cubs, you name ’em, they’ll come calling. Haren has proved his value as a strong number two in a veteran rotation if not an ace of a young rotation ( if say, paired with the Yankees in a rotation of Haren, Wang, Joba, Kennedy and Mussina assuming the Yankees parted with Hughes and other assorted parts to get him, for example purposes only, of course. However, he would look good in a veteran rotation such as the Braves, who already boast John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, and quite possibly will be adding Tom Glavine at the hometown discount in the coming weeks). Haren is owed $4 million in 2008, $5.5 million in 2009, with a affordable club option of $6.75 million in 2010.

Chance He’ll Be Traded: I give it 80%. If Beane is in fact serious about blowing up the A’s, look for him to trade Haren, Joe Blanton, Huston Street, Nick Swisher and without a doubt, Eric Chavez. This is how I could see a trade to the Yankees happening, the Chavez deal. Knowing the weak market for starting pitchers, and knowing the Yankees are looking for an ace and a third baseman, I could see him dropping Haren to the Yankees for a decent package, assuming they take Chavez off Bean’s payroll. Chavez is owed $11 million in 2008, 2009, 2010 and has a club option of $12.5 million in 2011. The more of Chavez’s salary that Beane wants to pay, I’m sure the better package he could get from the Yankees. Two ways for this to possibly go: either Beane gives NYY Haren and Chavez (and all his contract, a salary dump a la Bobby Abreu in 2006) for SP Humberto Sanchez, Chase Wright/ Jeff Karstens, and Brett Gardner. However, if he offered to pay, say half, of Chavez’s remaining salary (which would shock me, from the tight wallet of the Oakland A’s) he could maybe make out with an Alan Horne, or possibly Ian Kennedy package. There has also been rumors surfacing that Beane could want JASON GIAMBI back (!), so keep your ears to the road on this one… This could get interesting.

 And finally, my favorite…

5. Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay Rays - Why-- I don’t know. As long as I’ve watched baseball, I’ve always thought the Rays were a few starters and a closer away from being a monster. Especially after last year, with the emergence of Carlos Pena’s bat, and with that stacked outfield, the last thing I though I’d hear was that Scott Kazmir would be available in a possible trade. I always assumed they would finally wise up and trade the Carl Pavano of the Outfield, Mr. Rocco Baldelli himself, for a solid three or four, Jeff Weaver-type pitcher.

But hearing Kazmir COULD be up for grabs got me thinking…He has three years before he is eligible for free agency, versus the one year Santana has before he hit’s the open market. Its genius really…. Tampa knows that teams that have to drop three to four top prospects on Santana then have to be sure they can negotiate a contract extension with him before he hits free agency, in essence PAYING FOR HIM TWICE! So if you are, again, I’ll use the Yankees as an example, going to trade Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Alan Horne and Melky Cabrera for Johan Santana, then… you have to sign him to $150M over a six year period. At least…

But, if the Rays step in, and say, “Hey, Scotty isn’t as accomplished as Johan is, YET, but he’s 24, he’s got the makings of an ace, he OWNS the Red Sox every time, he’s three years away from free agency, and we’ll trade him to you for Phil Hughes, Alan Horne, and Jeff Karstens/ or Humberto Sanchez, because we already have enough outfielders and we need some young pitching….”

Last year, he was 13-9 in 34 games, with 239 Ks, 18 HR allowed and a miniscule AL ERA of 3.48. Oh yeah, did I mention he plays for the Rays? A team that won 66 games last year?!?!?!

Chance He’ll Be Traded: I give it 0-100%. You have to think the Yankees, or anyone for that matter wouldn’t at least consider it for a long while. Same goes for the Mets. Why give up all your young prospects when you can send Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber, and hold onto Lasting’s Milledge. Same with the Yankees and Melky Cabrera. We all know that the difference between, well, one of the differences, the Twins and the Rays in one will need a center fielder very quickly, while the other has a glutton of outfield talent.

Call me crazy… but I’d take Kazmir over Santana any day….And if they put him on the block, for real, I think he’ll fetch more offers than Santana. A team would control his rights for more years, and more teams could afford him, as opposed to Santana.

What a winter this could be…. Back with more as it unfolds…..

E. Shamus O. 

If you are a Yankees fan, you have to love this time of year.

While I love the drama of a 162 game season that stretches from April until October, I really enjoy the off season, specifically the Hot Stove.

As of now, the Yankees general manager, Brian Cashman, has his work cut out for him. Lets do a shopping list  for Mr. Cashman to keep things prioritized.

1. Retain the Good ol' boys-- With A-Rod and Joe Torre having bolted the Bronx like a boatload of Cubans defecting in the middle of the night, the Yankees front office brass knows it has to do whatever it takes, back up the Brinks truck, to keep closer Mariano Rivera and catcher Jorge Posada.

Here's how I see it breaking down:

A) Rivera will become the highest paid closer in the history of the game.... at least until Frankie K-Rod hits free agency in a few years. The Yankees will end up signing the Sandman, in my humble opinion, a three year/ $46.5 M deal, three years at $15.5 per year. High? Yes. But they know that they need Joba Chamberlain in the starting rotation next year, and they know Mo still has 'a little go in his shooulder'. With his deal, he closes the old stadium, and pitches the first two years in the new one, all the while serving as a mentor to the army of young pitchers the Yankees are hording.

B) Posada will make them work for his services. I think declining to negotiate with him during the season and spring training, but making runs at A-Rod really upset him, more than who the manager is. And, Hip Hip Jorge knows that he is at the front of a weak free agent class. He knows the Mets will throw at least four, if not five years at him. However, in the end, he signs with the Yankees for four years, $50 million, working out to $12.5M a year. He also knows he will likely finish the last year, possible year and a half as a DH/1B.

2. 3B-- With Opt-Fraud gone.... thank god.... a new man is needed to hold down the hot corner. If you believed the Bubba Crosby joke of 2006, then yes, Virginia, Wilson Betemit is your opening day 3B.

But here's what really will happen:

A) If Cashman can convince the Marlins to come down from their asking price of one of the Yankees' 'Lethal Weapon III' pitchers, ie Joba, Phil or Ian, for Miguel Cabrera, then a deal will get done. If Cashman could pawn off, say, a package built around Alan Horne, Dellin Betances, Humberto Sanchez, Jeff Karstens and Brett Gardner for Cabrera, he would pull the trigger. But don't look for that trade to happen.

The Marlins have a highly regarded scouting program, a program that targeted Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez for Josh Beckett while managing to dump Lowell, who at the time of that 2005 November trade, was described by a scout as 'standing in quicksand both at 3B and home plate.' So do not expect them to be fooled.

B) The Johnny Damon for CHW Joe Crede trade, that was started by the talented writers at MLBtraderumors.com? Not happening. Maybe they'll snag Crede as a backup plan F, assuming he is non-tendered. However, Damon, after meeting Girardi for breakfast in Orlando this week, was told he will be leading off and playing LF for the Yankees this year. That rumor is dead as disco.

C) Scott Rolen-- at three years and $36 million? Not for our hot dog vendor from the box seats, which any bleacher creature will tell you...suck. I wouldn't take Rolen if all St. Louis wanted in return was Pavano's ####ed up Porsche.

D) Mike Lowell-- If he doesn't re-up in Beantown, let him get his four or five years of solid decline elsewhere. If they think he is Scott Brosius reincarnated, wake up... He is a aberration of that crummy little ballpark, where you or I could hit 15 home runs in 500 ABs.

And finally...

E) I'm grouping these two together b/c they make the most sense, thats why I saved them for last: Eric Chavez and Miguel Tejada. 

a1) Billy Beane has said he is thinking of blowing up the A's, once and for all. I say offer two mid-level prospects, a la the Abreu trade, to let him get out from under the Chavez contract, originally 6 years for $66M. He has 2 years and $22 M left. One rumor making the rounds was that Beane was interested in Giambi with his OBP obsession. With Giambi having one year at $21 M left and Chavez 2 yeras at $22M, do a straight up, with the NYY tossing in Tyler Clippard and $10M. Chavez is reportedly a great clubhouse guy, good defense at 3B, 20 or so HR, he's 29 years old but somewhat of an injury risk, but so is Giambi. Point is, won't cost much in prospects, like Miggy from Fla.

b1) Tejada is an even easier move, in my opinion. The Orioles are looking for relief and OF depth. Mark Feinsand of the Daily News, a fabulous publication, stated that the O's would be willing to move Miguel Tejada (two years, $26 M left-- $13M a year), for a decent deal. Feinsand imagines one of either Karstens/ Clippard or Sanchez, along with an OF prospect such as Brett Gardner and, believe it or not, make sure you are sitting, Krazy Kyle Farnsworth, would be enough to get this one done.

Miggy would make a great 3B, strong arm, power bat from the right, capable of 25-30 HR, and a work horse.  And any attitude questions will be dealt with quickly by Seargent Major Girardi.

3. Starting Pitching-- Paul Revere might as well be on his horse, lantern in hand, making his way east from Minnesota, screaming "Johan is up for sale, Johan is up for sale!"

The news dropped like Lindsay Lohan trying to walk a straight line for a sobriety test... Johan Santana is going on the market. He will reject the Twins second attempt at a contract extension and is expected to be placed on the market in time for the winter meetings. Teams such as the Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Angels, Orioles, Red Sox, White Sox will try to get him, but it has been preordained: Johan Santana will be traded to the New York Yankees.

For arguments sake, lets say the deal that brings Miguel Tejada to the Bronx consists of Humberto Sanchez, Kyle Farnsworth and Brett Gardner.

In order to get Johan, Cashman will initially offer Ian Kennedy, Jeff Karstens, Dellin Betances and Melky Cabrera. At that point, Minnesota will laugh and hang up. Cashman will wait one week, gauge the price, and then make the new offer:

NYY offers Ian Kennedy, Alan Horne, Jeff Karstens, and Melky Cabrera. Minnesota says they need to think about it.

The Yankees then say, one day later, final offer Phil Hughes, Alan Horne, Dellin Betances, Ross Ohlendorf and Melky Cabrera, to which the Twins accept for Johan Santana. Hate to see Phil go, but Joba is regarded higher in the organization, and when the best pitcher in baseball is one the market, at age 29, you get him.

The 2008 NYY starting rotation consists of Johan, Joba, Wang, Kennedy, and Moose. Hopefully Dandy Andy comes back for one more year, making either Moose or Kennedy fight it out for #5 and long relief.  And whats funny-- in five years, when Hughes is set to be a free agent, and Santana has become a number three pitcher, and the Twins can't afford Hughes anymore, guess who gets him in free agency?....Maybe I'm thinking too far ahead!

5. OF-- To make up the loss of Melky Cabrera (part of Santana trade) in the OF, you sign Torii Hunter to a 4 year deal worth $75 million. Low years, high money. Great glove, great clubhouse, good righty bat. OF of LF Damon, CF Hunter and RF Abreu is above aberave defense. And in two years, when Damon and Matsui are done, and next year when Abreu is gone, you start breaking in Jose Tabata and A-Jax.

Final results:

1. L Damon (LF/ PT DH)

2. R Jeter (SS)

3. L Abreu (RF)

4. R Tejada (3B)

5. R Hunter (CF)

6. S Posada (C)

7. L Cano (2B)

8. L Matsui (DH/ PT LF) or L Giambi (DH/ PT 1B)

9. R Duncan (1B/ PT RF/ PT DH)

Rotation: Johan Santana, Joba Chamberlain, Chien Ming Wang, Ian Kennedy, Mike Mussina--poss Andy Pettitte?

What do y'all think?