Nov. 12, 9 pm est. -- With the rumor du jour being that Johan Santana may be placed on the trading block by the Minnesota Twins (see blog entry below) due to a weak free agent market in starting pitching, a rash of other ace pitching availability rumors are popping up like hits on Lindsay Lohan’s rap sheet at the Hollywood Police Department.

In the last week alone, names such as the Brewers’ Ben Sheets, the Rays’ Scott Kazmir, the A’s Dan Haren, the Orioles’ Erik Bedard, the Padres’ Jake Peavy and the Indians’ CC Sabathia have all surfaced in trade rumors throughout various media markets.

The theory is, a historically thin crop of available free agent starting pitchers, headlined by names like Carlos Silva and Bartolo ‘the Hutt’ Colon, is causing general managers far and wide to stick their toe in the scalding water boiling on the Hot Stove, gauging the market price for their top pitchers, with the potential opportunity to restack or retool a weak farm system by trading one elite pitcher to a team desperate for an ace and with prospects to spare, such as the New York Yankees and Mets, or the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Angels, for examples.

I want to break down the list of pitchers listed above, what their 2007 records were, how many years left on their contracts, how much money is still owed to them and the chances they‘ll be traded by the start of the 2008 season or the July 31 deadline of 2008 :

1. CC Sabathia, Cleveland Indians - A 27-year old lefty hander who led his team to the seventh game of the American League Series in 2007. Sabathia went 19-7 last year, with an ERA of 3.21 in 34 games started. He threw four complete games with one shutout, fanning 209 overall. Talks for an extension broke-off during spring training preceding this season. Sabathia has one year left on his contract at $8,750,000 before becoming a free agent before the 2009 season, next year. Cleveland is expected to make another substantial extension offer to Sabathia, but if an agreement is not reached, look for general manager Mark Shapiro to make a deal by the deadline next summer. He will not allow CC to hit free agency without getting something in return. The question is, with a Cy Young worthy season in 2007 and a possible strong season in his walk year could very easily price him out of Shapiro and the Indian’s payroll budget forecasts.

Chance He’ll Be Traded: I give it 99%. However, I say it will be closer to the July deadline, especially if he starts ‘08 hot and the Tribe as a team in the American League Central standings do not. He will net Cleveland a package worthy of anything Minnesota gets for Santana. Look for every team in the League to inquire, but the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Rockies will lead the pack on this one.

2. Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres - The 27- year old power right hander has been slicing and dicing the National League, specifically the N.L. West, for years. Last season, he all but locked up the N.L. Cy Young award, going 19-6 with a 2.54 ERA and 240 Ks. He allowed 13 home runs all year. San Diego GM Kevin Towers is most likely testing the waters on this one.

Chance He’ll Be Traded: I give it 10%. Towers would have to be blown away to give up his ace, I just don’t see this happening. Of course, if he is officially put on the market, I could see a feeding frenzy of National League teams bidding. He’s on the cheap for the next two years, owed $6 million in 2008 with a club option for 2009 of $8 million. If he can’t be resigned to an extension by the winter before the start of the ‘09 season, he could hit the trade block.

3. Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers - Sheets is 29, having been pitching for the Brew Crew since 2001, his rookie season. In an injury plagued season of 2007, Sheets went 12-5, with 106 Ks through 141 innings pitched, posting an ERA of 3.82 and giving up 17 long balls. His injury habits scare this writer, and a rumor just this week had him involved in a three way, going to the Yankees with Carl Crawford off to the Brewers and the Yankees sending the Rays prospects, presumably top prospects. I was floored to hear that. I figured the Yankees had learned their lesson on injury prone National League Pitchers making the jump to the AL ‘B-East‘ (see Johnson , Randall; Pavano, Carl; Wright, Jared; Brown, Kevin). Sheets is owed $11 million in 2008, then hit’s the opn free agent market after this next season. But buyer beware: Since 05, he hasn’t pitched over 156 innings.

Chance He’ll Be Traded: I give it 05%. I think teams will be in a sit-back-and-see mode with Sheets, knowing he is up for free agency after this season. If he goes 9-8, with an ERA north of 5 in 160 IP next season, he might not fare well on the open market, but if he strikes out 18 batters in a game again, posts a 17-8 record with an ERA of 3.85, he’ll be in business, an the first in line will probably be the Brewers, to resign him.

4. Dan Haren, Oakland Athletics - Since Haren came over to the American League in the Mark Mulder trade from the St. Louis Cardinals, he has gotten better every year. Last year, Haren led the A’s pitching with a record of 15-9, sporting an ERA of 3.07 in 34 games, striking out 192 while allowing 24 home runs. The 27-year old is a right hander with finesse, and his contract males him very attractive to possible trade partners. Billy Beane is talking about blowing up the A’s, and should Haren be put on the trade block, watch out: The Sox of both variety, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Cubs, you name ’em, they’ll come calling. Haren has proved his value as a strong number two in a veteran rotation if not an ace of a young rotation ( if say, paired with the Yankees in a rotation of Haren, Wang, Joba, Kennedy and Mussina assuming the Yankees parted with Hughes and other assorted parts to get him, for example purposes only, of course. However, he would look good in a veteran rotation such as the Braves, who already boast John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, and quite possibly will be adding Tom Glavine at the hometown discount in the coming weeks). Haren is owed $4 million in 2008, $5.5 million in 2009, with a affordable club option of $6.75 million in 2010.

Chance He’ll Be Traded: I give it 80%. If Beane is in fact serious about blowing up the A’s, look for him to trade Haren, Joe Blanton, Huston Street, Nick Swisher and without a doubt, Eric Chavez. This is how I could see a trade to the Yankees happening, the Chavez deal. Knowing the weak market for starting pitchers, and knowing the Yankees are looking for an ace and a third baseman, I could see him dropping Haren to the Yankees for a decent package, assuming they take Chavez off Bean’s payroll. Chavez is owed $11 million in 2008, 2009, 2010 and has a club option of $12.5 million in 2011. The more of Chavez’s salary that Beane wants to pay, I’m sure the better package he could get from the Yankees. Two ways for this to possibly go: either Beane gives NYY Haren and Chavez (and all his contract, a salary dump a la Bobby Abreu in 2006) for SP Humberto Sanchez, Chase Wright/ Jeff Karstens, and Brett Gardner. However, if he offered to pay, say half, of Chavez’s remaining salary (which would shock me, from the tight wallet of the Oakland A’s) he could maybe make out with an Alan Horne, or possibly Ian Kennedy package. There has also been rumors surfacing that Beane could want JASON GIAMBI back (!), so keep your ears to the road on this one… This could get interesting.

 And finally, my favorite…

5. Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay Rays - Why-- I don’t know. As long as I’ve watched baseball, I’ve always thought the Rays were a few starters and a closer away from being a monster. Especially after last year, with the emergence of Carlos Pena’s bat, and with that stacked outfield, the last thing I though I’d hear was that Scott Kazmir would be available in a possible trade. I always assumed they would finally wise up and trade the Carl Pavano of the Outfield, Mr. Rocco Baldelli himself, for a solid three or four, Jeff Weaver-type pitcher.

But hearing Kazmir COULD be up for grabs got me thinking…He has three years before he is eligible for free agency, versus the one year Santana has before he hit’s the open market. Its genius really…. Tampa knows that teams that have to drop three to four top prospects on Santana then have to be sure they can negotiate a contract extension with him before he hits free agency, in essence PAYING FOR HIM TWICE! So if you are, again, I’ll use the Yankees as an example, going to trade Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Alan Horne and Melky Cabrera for Johan Santana, then… you have to sign him to $150M over a six year period. At least…

But, if the Rays step in, and say, “Hey, Scotty isn’t as accomplished as Johan is, YET, but he’s 24, he’s got the makings of an ace, he OWNS the Red Sox every time, he’s three years away from free agency, and we’ll trade him to you for Phil Hughes, Alan Horne, and Jeff Karstens/ or Humberto Sanchez, because we already have enough outfielders and we need some young pitching….”

Last year, he was 13-9 in 34 games, with 239 Ks, 18 HR allowed and a miniscule AL ERA of 3.48. Oh yeah, did I mention he plays for the Rays? A team that won 66 games last year?!?!?!

Chance He’ll Be Traded: I give it 0-100%. You have to think the Yankees, or anyone for that matter wouldn’t at least consider it for a long while. Same goes for the Mets. Why give up all your young prospects when you can send Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber, and hold onto Lasting’s Milledge. Same with the Yankees and Melky Cabrera. We all know that the difference between, well, one of the differences, the Twins and the Rays in one will need a center fielder very quickly, while the other has a glutton of outfield talent.

Call me crazy… but I’d take Kazmir over Santana any day….And if they put him on the block, for real, I think he’ll fetch more offers than Santana. A team would control his rights for more years, and more teams could afford him, as opposed to Santana.

What a winter this could be…. Back with more as it unfolds…..

E. Shamus O. 

New York City - With visions of another AL East title dancing in his head, Yankees principal owner George Steinbrenner is not about to allow Yankees GM Brian Cashman to stand pat at the trade deadline on July 31.

With the New York media outlets daily offering trade rumors and gossip, and even some, ahem, New York post, going as far as to say that the Yankees won't make any moves, the question isn't WILL they make a move, the question should become WHEN will the Bronx Bombers make a move.

If the Yankees can maintain within three to five games of the Boston Red Sox for the next two weeks, I believe the Yankees will take an outfielder of lesser proportions (see below). However, if they were to drop to five and a half games or MORE behind of the Red Sox, I think Darth SteinVadar will order Cashman to deal AA pitching phenom Phil Hughes or A outfielder extraordinaire Jose Tabata. As of right now, these two guys are unavailable, and you might as well put J. Brent Cox on that list as well. From the Yanks themselves, I'd say both Wang and Cano are off-limits too.However, if the Yanks begin to falter, it will be George ordering Cashman to deal one of the few blue chips for a big name (see list below).

Here are some of the names of OF's associated with the Yankees. These would be considered the "lesser list", the players who play for teams that are a) out of contention; b) the salary of said player needs to be moved for monetary reasons; or c) none of the players would command a top prospect from the list that includes: Hughes, Tabata, Cox, Cano, and Wang. The following list of players would be had for a package of available players, such as Eric Duncan, Melky Cabrera, Bubba Crosby, Andy Philips, Matt White, Scott Proctor, or TJ Beam:

Second Tier Players (w/ current team listed)

Arizona Diamondbacks: Shawn Green, Luiz Gonzalez, Eric Byrnes

Kansas City Royals: Reggie Sanders

Philadelphia Phillies: David Dellucci, Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell (if the Yankees assumed the entire amount of $$ remaining on either contract for this year and next, neither of these players would require much in return. However if the Yankees asked Philadelphia to kick in some $$ in the trade, Phillies GM Pat Gillick could demand a blue chip. Burrell is owed $27M through '09, Bobby Abreu is owed $24M through '08)

Pittsburgh Pirates: Jeromy Burnitz, Craig Wilson

Chicago Cubs: Jacque Jones

Seattle Mariners: Raul Ibanez

Washington Nationals: Jose Guillen

Cincinatti Reds: Ken Griffey, JR (this one circles the Bronx and North Jersey papers every summer- what the hell, might as well throw him into the mix. If Reds GM Wayne Krivisky is dumb enough to send Austin Kearns to the Nats for two bottom of the barrel relievers, who knows what he is capable of...)

Top Tier Players:

Washinton Nationals: Alfonso Soriano

Milwaukee Brewers: Carlos Lee

Philadelphia Phillies: Aaron Rowand, Bobby Abreu (again, it depends how much money transfers hands on this deal)

Cincinatti Reds: Adam Dunn

Seattle Mariners: Ichiro Suzuki

THE ODDS: ( top three bold predictions, in order)

3. A Second Tier player - 20%- reasoning: I believe the Yankees will stay close to the Red Sox in the division, but I believe Steinbrenner, now getting older and more impatient, will demand Cashman to bring someone with a little more hype than Reggie Sanders to the Bronx in a tight pennant race. There are guys from that list I wouldn't mind seeing, for the right price, (Eric Byrnes, David Deullucci, Bobby Abreu ((again, AT THE RIGHT PRICE)), Jose Guillen), and then there are also players from that list I would not want to see as a Pinstriper, no matter what the price (Shawn Green, Ken Griffey JR, Luis Gonzalez, Reggie Sanders, anyone old and $$)

2. Alfonso Soriano - 35%- reasoning: This was always one guy I was sad to see go, even though it was for, cough. ahem, choke, the "best player in baseball", ahem... cough... wheez. I would love for Cashman to get him back. Yeah, he's a free agent, but he's 30, and the Yankees could lock him up in the offseason (5 years $75M) as an OF, especially with Gary Sheffield's $$ ($13.9M a year) off the books. And, I know he strikes out a lot, but he can hit for power, good arm, steals bases, good clubhouse personality, and the one factor that is a known plus about Soriano- he can play in New York city, something Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano, even Alex Rodriguez still haven't proven yet. Plus, if the Nationals drop any further, the price will begin to come down on him. Possibly, they could part with Melky, Duncan, TJ Beam, Proctor, and White, plus cash $1M, maybe. Remember, just last week the Nats sent a slew of relievers to Cincinatti, so they need some fresh, young, cheap bullpen arms and position players. He would be, in my mind, the ideal guy. Everyone assumed that Steinbrenner was saying Abreu was the guy he really wanted, but all he said was, "yeah, I like Bobby Abreu, everbody does.." So...

1. Bobby Abreu - 45%- reasoning: This one is tough. Allright, to pick up where I left off from above, everyone knows Steinbrenner loves home run hitters, and that's what he wants right now. They have enough "on-base" guys, with a top of the lineup with Damon, Jeter, Giambi- they need a power guy, a good defender, neither of which is Bobby Abreu. Ever since that stupid Home Run Derby last year, his swing mechanics have not been the same. However, I think that if the Angels, Tigers, Dodgers, or Mariners can beat the Yankees to Soriano, then the Yankees will feel the pressure to get Abreu. At that point, the question becomes at what price ? If they offer to assume his whole contract, then it is worth it to get him becaus ethey won't have to add any blue chips to the deal. However, if they bicker about the amount of money is owed, then Gillick will most likely demand Melky or Tabata. I think they could get away offering Duncan and TJ Beam for Abreu, but we'll have to see. The only ?? I have about Abreu is, how will he handle New York City ? NYC is a far cry from Philly...

So, to recap, I want Soriano, but if I have to, I'll take Abreu at a discount. To all Yankee fans out there, let me know what you think.... Of course anyone else is welcome to comment. Let's keep 'em positive, gentlemen. If you are going to accuse someone's trade idea as being ####, then justify it or submit your own.

BOSTON - It is cold and rainy outside my hotel window. I am in Boston this weekend, checking out a Red Sox game before I head to Portland, Maine to whatch the AA Sea Dogs (Boston Red Sox) vs. the AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Toronto Blue Jays).

Went to the North End for dinner last night, walking down Commercial street, left on Henchmen (what a name for a street in Little Italy !) and down Causeway. I look up, and I'm at the Boston Garden. I don't give a damn what bank currently rents/owns the building or the lease, I'm at the Garden.

I begin thinking about the state of the Celtics, how it's been exactly 20 years since they won a championship. Then I think about the Knicks, and how things could be as bad as that situation down there. Then I start to trace the time line in my head- when did things go so bad for the Celtics ?

Was it Bird and McHale's departure ? Was it that they didn't have an answer to Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls' dominance in the early to mid 1990's ? Then it hits me like a sledgehammer to the nose...

Len Bias.

Then I realize, it's the 20th anniversary of his death. It was June 19, of 1986, less than 48 hours after the Celts took him as the overall number two pick in the '86 draft. This was a pick they had recieved from Seattle for Gerald Henderson, and seeing as Seattle had won 32 games that year, they ended up with the number two pick, behind Cleveland, that they in turn gave to Boston. So, despite winning the NBA championship a few weeks before, the Celts would be able to snag a top flight college kid to add to a lineup that boasted Bird, McHale, Robert Parrish, and Danny Ainge.

It was a foregoneconclusion by mid May that Cleveland would take Brad Daugherty with the number one pick. It had been a forgone conclusion by the Celts the summer before that they would do whatever it takes to get Len Bias. Ainge had gone down to Maryland, where Bias went to school and grew up, after the '85 season had ended for the Celtics. Ainge had heard quite a bit about Bias, and spent a weekend playing pick up, neighborhhod basketball games with Bias and his buddies from the Terrapins team. Ainge was smitten with Bias, returned to the Celtics for cmap in September, and could speak nothing but praise for the young Bias. Bird, went to the NCAA championship game and watched Bias piggyback the Terrapins, as they walked over North Carolina. Bias was ACC player of the eyar (for the second year in a row).

So, with little hesitation, after winning the third championship in six years, the Celtics, in 1986, drafted Len Bias second, in an attempt to add youth and athleticism to an aging team. Bias, it was decided, would be the Celtics' answer to Jordan and the growing beast in the east, the Bulls. Bias would also be able to allow Bird and McHale less minutes on the floor, perhaps prolonging each of the super stars careers.

Bias, aftermeeting with the head honchos in Boston, flew home with his dad, and then went back over to his dorm room at UMaryland "for a little going away party", as one of his friends described it to the Washington Post twenty years ago. According to reports, Bias did enough cocaine to scare even Robin Williams into Betty Ford, and died of an overdose.

When Larry Bird was stopped in an airport and presented the news by two beat writers for the Boston Globe, Bird responed: That's the cruelest thing I've ever heard....

And ever since, the Celtics have never been the same. They have never won another NBA championship since Lenny Bias. In fact, another young, star player died three years later, Reggie LEwis, from heart complications. It is as if the Celtics have been in a rebuilding mode for the last 20 years, and the answer isn't Cutting Board, I mean, Paul Pierce, who gets stabbed 19 times in the Roxy in Boston, and is able to play a month later, but takes an elbow to the mellon in the playoffs, and wraps his entire dome in gauze. ARE YOU #### KIDDING ME, RED ?

Never has a player affected an organization as much as Bias, despite never wearing a Celtics uniform, or played one minute on the Parquet Floor. His name still echoes through the upper management offices of the Celtics' front office.

His name was Len Bias, and he is the greatest "what if" of all time...