Chad Finn writes a great column today for FoxSports.com, in which he discusses Johan Santana. He raises a question about Johan’s 2007 season-- was it the start of an early decline for the 28-year-old southpaw, or was it merely an aberration?
Here’s what he says:
“5. As good as he once was?
Now that the Twins appear on the verge of at least listening to offers for two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana, here's a question that must be asked: Is it possible that the Twins would be trading him at the perfect time? The numbers make the argument that the 28-year-old lefthander wasn't nearly as dominating last season as he had been in the previous three: his ERA (3.33) and ERA+ (130) were his worst since 2001, he allowed an AL-high 33 home runs, and his WHIP (1.073) was his highest since '03. Yet his down year, if one can even call it that, would be considered a career season for every pitcher in baseball save for Josh Beckett and a dozen or so others, and it's hard to imagine his market value would be affected. But given the ransom the Twins will demand — and undoubtedly receive — should they officially put him on the market, his potential suitors had better be certain his slight regression last season was an aberration, and not the subtle beginning of his decline.”
When Johan Santana burst onto the scene in 2003, he went 12-3 with an ERA of 3.07 down the stretch for the Twins, propelling them into the playoffs.
What he did from 2004 through 2006 put him in the category of top three pitchers of the decade, hands down, regardless of what team you root for and who’s name or logo is on your jersey or hat.
In that span, he went an astounding 55-19, with an average ERA of 2.71, striking out close to 750 batters and winning two Cy Young Awards.
However, in 2007, last year, he had what was his first down, or off, year of his blossoming career. He went 15-13, with an earned run average of 3.33 and allowed a career high and American League high 33 home runs allowed, and he was owned by the Cleveland Indians all season long. On the bright side, he did win the Gold Glove.
Finn raises a good point. Are the Twins dealing him because they know they can’t afford him, despite having a new ballpark set to open soon that will increase their revenue flow? Or are they moving him because maybe they know something is up and they are trying to sell high.
Compare him to one of my favorite guys, Dontrelle Willis. Two years ago when D-Train won 20 games, I would have slapped a bow on Phil Hughes for a chance to bring the D-Train to NYC. A lot of teams would have given top prospects for Willis. But now, after two sub-seasons, similar to the one Johan had last year, his value has dropped dramatically.
Could the same be happening to Johan? Was 2007 the start of a decline, or was it just an aberration?
If a team like the Dodgers are going to give up Andre Either, James Loney and Matt Kemp, or if the Red Sox will give up Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, or if the Yankees are going to send Philly Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera, wouldn’t we want to be certain that: a) he’s in fine physical shape and b) they could have a 72 hour window to negotiate a contract extension?
I would never send Wang, Cano or Joba over in the deal, but I would give up everyone else, as long as I knew that he could be screened for health first, preferably by Dr. James Andrews, and then I’d want him to sign a, say hypothetically, 5 year, $150M deal to keep him until he’s 34, so that way we know we don’t give up the farm for him just to see him leave us via free agency in a year.
Big trades like these are such a risk. Think of all the crazy trades of the last 10 years. A.J. Pierzinski from Minn to SF for Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano??? Or Heath Slocum from Boston to SEA for Varitek and Lowe back in 1997? Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr for Pedro Martinez?
Just ask Dan ’I traded Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano’ Duquette !!!!
Its annoying that we can't say Wang, because they think we are saying.... you know. I meant C.M.WANG !!! Not my package, or junk.... Who really calls it a Wang anymore?
I find it hard to believe that the Twins are shopping Santana because they think he is already on the downside of his career. The Twins, like other small market teams, know that they cant afford big time contracts, which Santana will definitely demand after the 08 season. Also, because they play in the central with the Indians and Tigers, they probably dont have much of a chance to reach the postseason. The Twins have nothing to gain from keeping him for another year. They have 2 options: 1)Trade him for a huge bundle of stud prospects(suppposedly the mets are said to be willing to send Wright, Pelfrey AND Milledge for Santana) or 2) Keep him through 08 and get 2 first round picks in return for him walking. Sounds like a no brainer to me.
plus, the willis decline was a total different story cause while johan had an "off year" , with more run support, he would've been right in the thick of the cy young race again. willis's decline was MUCH sharper than santana's. willis posted ERA's over 4, santana's was 3.33.the yanks are way too stubborn to give up both phil hughes and ian kennedy in the same trade. that would never happen. the yankees are trying to insure that they will have a dominant rotation within the next couple years. as for the dodgers, jon 464, of course they would give up loney. as a prospect, he's not at the level of a phil hughes or a brandon wood, his main attractiveness is his ability to reach his ceiling, which is not very high. he could one day be a top average hitter, but never more than 15-20 HR's in a season. of course they'd trade him. chitown, there's no way the mets give up that much. wherever u heard that from, its dead wrong. that'd be the dumbest trade of the century. slshusker, texas doesn't have the prospects to trade for Johan.
I don't like the idea of the Dodgers getting Santana. His price is too expensive, money wise and prospect wise. They would give up too much to obtain him and too much to sign him long term.
Billingsley and Kershaw might be a good a 1-2 punch in coming years. Kemp and Loney your 3-4 in the line up. And I haven't mentioned Martin, Bronxton, Laroche,Hu, Abreu etc. I would keep the youngsters and use the money to fill holes.
Watch out for the Red Sox in the Santana sweepstakes. They have young pitching (which the Twins want), a centerfielder (Coco) which the Twins need and a connection in David Ortiz. I'm telling ya, watch out.
Any chance Boston would send Twins Ellsbury and either Bucholz or Lester? How about Yanks sending Cano, Cabrera and either Hughes or Kennedy? The one I'd like to see is to LAD for Kemp, Kershaw and eithe Meloan or LaRoche. Chitown, if NY Mets are willing to give up those 3 I'm not sure there's a better deal out there. If we could swing Gomez in there instead of Miledge, that would be sweet! It will get interesting if Bos, NYM, NYY are all out there bidding.
I dont care who the yankees would trade for you do not give up Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlin, Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, Robinson Cano,or Jose Tabata. THE YANKEES CAN NOT TRADE ANY OF THOSE PLAYERS. THEY ARE THE FUTURE STARS FOR THEM.
lol the Mets would NEVER trade Wright, plus two of their better prospects for Santana, NEVER...and Steve Phillips was fired a year and a half BEFORE the kazmir-zambrano trade, Jim Duquette actually made that trade
The Rumor which has the Mets considering trading Wright plus a few others for Santana came from a very credible source that is quite friendly with a number of the GM's, Omar Minaya included.
yeah? what's the source...Wright is the most popular new york athlete since Jeter, hit .325 with 30 HR, 107 RBI, 34 SB, and a gold glove, at 24 years old...he's the face of the franchise...he is untouchable
just want to say, um chargers are like just tied for 3rd place only behind two other teams in the nfl. Im a chargers fan since the days of foust, joiner, winslow, and the likes of louie kelcther. So why not the Chargers they were only the best team in all of football last year as far as W's and L's @ 14 and 2. Why dont they ever get some respect? huh?
IF............the Mets include David Wright in ANY trade for a pitcher,and I don't care who it would be,I'm handing in my Mets hat and switching teams AFTER I start a movement to have Omar Minaya fired-----listening Omar????????
USC, the real prospect to watch for is Hu. This past season, he went from single A to the majors. LaRoche is starting to come around. Once they let him play every day, he became a much better player. On one hand, if the team signs A-Rod, they break the bank on him and may not afford Martin when he becomes a free agent. If they trade for Cabrera, they give up LaRoche, Kemp, and either Kershaw or Billingsley. But if they were to trade Loney instead of LaRoche, LaRoche could move to first base.
A trade for Santana would be a risky move at this point. Is he at the point of decline? If he starts out strong, maybe not, at least not in 2008. Eventually he will get to the point of decline.
chin, I think something out of the norm for the southpaw for sure. This guy is the most dominant lefty in the game and arguable the best in the game with Beckett right behind. I can't believe I just said that. Anyway, he will be back. Needs a team that can provide better run support. I think he comes back big in 08 whether he's in a Twins uniform or not.
Steve Phillips did not trade Scott Kazmir.
Jim Duquette did and was rewarded by
the Orioles who hired him as their GM.
He's been fired since.
In Duquette's defense, Jeff Wilpon ordered
him to trade Kazmir after Jeff's best friend,
Tom Glavine, was spurned by Kazmir when
Glavine offered to teach Kazmir some mechanics.
Kazmir apparently refused.
When the trade was offered, Jeff Wilpon pushed
Kazmir out the door. This was a sign to others of
how much power Jeff had with the Mets and also Glavine who remained with the Mets after every one
of his teammates was traded, released, or retired.
Thats the gist of the infamous Kazmir trade.
Last edited by METROPOLITAN 2007 on November 12th at 8:11 AM.
as a yanks fan: you cannot trade any of ur top prospects (esp hughes, joba, cano, kennedy, melky)..
that is our future and it is pointless to throw away 5-10 years of talent for a player that only has 2 or 3 years left in the tank..
on the other hand, looks like pettite might not be back and the yanks really need a stud ace pitcher in the #1 spot...
not to mention 3rd baseman- outfielder and possibly 1st baseman...
if we could get santana or another stud pitcher- might be willing to let go of kennedy but hughes, joba, w.a.n.g., and cano should be considered untouchable no matter the situation
the yanks have been seriously hurt by starting pitching the last couple years and pitching carries you in the playoffs....
DONT make the same mistake yanks !!! hold onto your young pitchers !!!
The notion that Santana is on the downside of his career is ludicrous. He is 28 years old! That usually means a player is entering his prime. If he played on a team that could score runs, he would have won 20 games last year and been in contention for his third cy young.
I think the Yanks should hold onto Phillip Hughes, Joba and Cano, as they will all be future stars of the franchise. The Yanks need pitching, they already have enough offense, even with the loss of A-Rod.
The Dodgers better get it correct at this point. The fans are getting very edgy, especially when they hired a bum like G. Little. How the heck do you hire a guy that was fired by the Red Sox for not being able to handle pitchers. This is straight from Theo Epstein. As I said they better get it right.
Last edited by realira on November 12th at 12:50 PM.
You've got to be kidding me when you say *any* Yankee is untouchable. Santana has been the best pitcher in the majors over the last 5 years andd is only 28. He likely has 7-10 good/great years left. And you want to tell me some unproven young pitchers are untouchable?
The only thing holding most teams back on trading for Santana is his future salary, and clearly the Yankees (and any other big market team) can absorb that.
Hughes, Chamberlin, Kennedy, Cano and Tabata "untouchable" when you can get Santana? Unbelievable. Any GM gives 2-3 of these guys for him. He's that good.
If Santana went to the NL next year, he would win the Cy Young. This man is a pitching machine and I can only hope if the Twins trade him it's to the NL or any other AL team but Boston or New York. I wish the Orioles had enough to ante up, but we don't.
Can I have some of what you are smoking ? Santana had an off year and many of his losses were in close games becuse they had little offense when they needed the clutch hit etc....Morneau and Cuddyer both had down years, Mauer was injured much of the season even though he played. In addition, the relief core was not as effective as previous years !!!! You also need to look at his stats since much was misleading as too how BAD his season actually was.!!!! GET A CLUE !!!!!!!!!!!
alright, enough with the Kazmir trade already! Yes, it was an awful trade. Yes, it may be one of the worst trades ever made. But guess what? If that trade didnt happen, Duquette may not have been fired when he was, Omar may not have been hired, and the Mets wouldnt have been in contention the last two years. We'd still be rebuilding, and hence, complaining about how much we suck and "how long it'll take to win something." In retrospect, I wouldnt have it any other way. I'll take a potential winning team over a kid who only pitches every five days and will probably blow his arm out in three years anyway.
It's pretty obvious Johan doesn't want to leave MN. I mean, he just bought a 7 million dollar house in Eden Prarie! I really hope he finds it in his heart to take a little less money and stay...
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