My semi-breakdown of the AFC:

I may as well start off with the biggest story in football at the moment.  Team Titanic (yes I called them Team Titanic, and yes I mean it on multiple levels), the Indianapolis Colts, finally took a loss to a dangerous San Diego Chargers team (who beat them with a blitzing 3-4 scheme on D - and I think we all know who runs the most effective 3-4 D in the league) that was coming off a home defeat at the hands of (here’s a helping of irony for you) the Miami Dolphins.  At least it’s nice to know that the suicide watch can be called off for Bob Griese, Nick Buonticonti, Mercury Morris (who was probably calling 911 today since the Colts were finally “on his block”) and the rest of the guys who I’m sure were all heeding the advice of John 'Bluto' Blutarsky and drinking heavily ever since Indy hit 10-0.  Another amazing thing about this loss is that this, coupled with the Patriots’ dominating win over Tampa Bay on Saturday has turned the Patriots back into the favorites to win the AFC in many analysts’ eyes, and that’s priceless.  To be honest, I think it’s a three-horse race in the AFC between the Colts (13-1), Patriots (9-5), and Bengals(11-3) (sorry Mr. Shanahan).  

A huge factor in the Colts’ loss today was the ineffectiveness of Edgerrin James, who never truly gets the credit he deserves.  I believe the lack of any sort of commitment to Edge was, in fact, the biggest reason the Colts lost today, however, nobody is discussing that as much as they should be.  Instead, it’s all about Peyton Manning having an “off game”, the Chargers’ pass rush, and so on.  Maybe the fact that Edge, the primary ingredient in an offense that relies more heavily on play action than John Wayne Bobbitt relies on Viagra, was taken completely out of the game had some sort of impact (Sorry about that rant).  That being said, I think the loss the Colts took today had more of a positive effect on the rest of the playoff teams in the AFC than it had a negative effect on the Colts.  This game made the RCA Dome a little less intimidating and gave teams like the Pats and Bengals a little extra confidence going into the playoffs that they can go into Indy and beat them just like the Chargers did.  I’m very curious to see how this team rebounds in a hostile environment at Seattle next week.  Call me a what you will, but I just don’t believe that this year’s version of the Colts is much better than the Colts of the past.  Until they prove something in the playoffs (i.e. beating the Patriots in a game that matters when both teams are at full strength), I will be skeptical.  However, the Colts have been a great team all season, and if they do beat the Patriots in the playoffs, I think they will end up winning the Lombardi Trophy.

I think the Broncos are a solid team, but just like the panthers, there’s something about them that makes me believe that they don’t have what it takes this season (maybe the fact that more than one person has their entire name on the back of their jersey has something to do with this.  Can this stop please?  I don’t even think the first initial is necessary, there is a number on the jersey for a reason.  That number can tell people which Williams or which Anderson it is, don’t you think?).  On a more serious note, the Broncos defense is certainly solid, but I’ve watched some games this season where they have had some serious mental lapses which have led to poor performances (Thanksgiving v. Dallas, the game against the Patriots, at the Giants) and they just don’t play strong enough against good competition to make me believe that they are a true contender.  Although the Broncos run the ball about 65% of the time, come playoff time, teams will stack the box and force Jake Plummer to beat them (therefore, I’m expecting quite a few bootlegs from Jake the Snake and the Orange Crush coaching staff).  I still don’t trust Jake Plummer in a big situation and I don’t think I ever will.  Expecting Jake Plummer to win a big playoff game with his arm is like expecting Robert Downey Jr. declining an all expenses paid (and I mean all expenses) trip to Amsterdam, it just will not happen.  The fact that former NCAA basketball dunk contest participant and Mercer University great Wesley Duke plays tight end for the Broncos gives them some points in my book, but not enough.  They are going nowhere fast. 

The Bengals are a very interesting team, but I think the lack of experience will hurt them just as it will hurt the Jaguars and their TEAL curtain defense (I came up with that nickname myself.  I think it’s a solid nickname that also pays homage to a great defense from the past); although I think the Jags will be hurt more by their potential first round matchup against the Pats at “The Razor” Gillette Stadium.  But back to the Bengals.  I have sung the praises of their much improved D previously in my blog (Odell Thurman in particular), but I don’t think the defense will be quite good enough.  Their offense is surely a force to be reckoned with, but points won’t be as easy to come by in the playoffs, so even though I think they have the potential to win the AFC, I don’t think they will actually pull it off.

Now we come to the defending World Champion New England Patriots.  I wouldn’t count the Pats out until somebody shows that they can take out Brady and Belichick come playoff time. I believe that the Pats can still beat anybody in the NFL come playoff time (even the Colts at Indy), and here’s why.  I hope we all know enough about Tom Brady and his exploits that I don't need to go too much into his importance to the team.  I still think Brady should get more recognition for league MVP than he's getting (he has been a constant on this injury plagued team and has carried them during certain games over the course of the season) and, according to Stephen A. Smith, Brady is "all you need".  More importanly, for the first time all season, the Pats have a healthy squad (especially on defense) that has been able to play together for multiple consecutive games (Tedy Bruschi is looking like his old self and Rosevelt Colvin is finally being utilized properly).  If you have watched their last few games, you can see the difference in the front seven’s pass rush as well as their run defense (opponent rushing average last 6 games = 60.2 ypg).  Also, the secondary, with the rookie Ellis Hobbs, Asante Samuel (whose cover skills seem to have caught up a bit to his hitting skills), and Artrell Hawkins, is looking a little better every week as they all get more and more comfortable with the system (not as much in Samuel’s case), and with playing with one another (another HUGE factor in the secondary looking better is the effectiveness of the front seven - they are making the job alot easier right now).  The Colts still haven't beaten the Pats in the playoffs and I don't think they will do it this year either.  The Bengals have a great offense, and a good, but somewhat untested defense, but have zero experience in the playoffs.  The Pats almost beat the Broncos at Denver without Dillon, Seymour, Bruschi and others.  I just flat out don’t think the Jags have what it takes, especially if Leftwich and Fred Taylor aren’t 100 percent and I don’t think the Steelers are a serious contender this season (not to mention the fact that the Pats beat them this year at Pittsburgh).  San Diego is pretty much out of the playoff picture and I don’t think the Chiefs will be in either (even if they were, they wouldn’t be playing at home so they would be a non-factor).  I don’t think any of the NFC teams will win the Super Bowl, and as a small example of why, let us look back to Sunday, when the best team in the NFC took on a very mediocre AFC team in the Tennesee Titans.  The Seahawks eeked out a win, 28-24, and I think my argument here is self-explanatory (this could have just been one of those days for the Seahawks, but we will find out more next week).  Of course we know what could happen on any given Sunday, but I believe the Colts and Pats will meet in Indy in the 2^nd round, and I also believe that the winner of that game will win the Super Bowl.  I may be biased here, but if you were a betting man, would you bet against the Pats?

So that’s my vague 360° assessment of the NFL playoff picture as it stands right now.  When all is said and done for the regular season, and the playoff seedings are set, I will get more specific and give a better breakdown of how the season went, including my thoughts on non-playoff teams and subjects such as the Reggie “2nd coming of Gale Sayers” Bush sweepstakes, the trend of HORRIBLE unnecessary roughness calls by refs, the amazing impact of Tony Siragusa’s presence on the sidelines during games, as well as my real deal award winners (MVP, etc.); but for the time being, I just wanted to get my thoughts on the table.