During the
qualifying stage these two teams shared the spoils with a win each and it
seemed that we were heading for a stalemate as the seconds ticked down. The
difference, in the end, came down to a long clearance downfield from Capdevilla
(?), tiring Swedish legs and the spirit of David Villa that inspired him to
chase the ball down, compose himself and to side foot the winner past Isaksson.
Based on share
of the play it was a deserved winner but Sweden provided much stiffer opposition
than a Russian side that almost presented goals to Spain last Tuesday. Thoughts
that another avalanche of Spanish goals might be in the offing received some
encouragement when Torres showed his goal poacher instincts after only fifteen
minutes. The Liverpool striker stretched for a ball played diagonally towards
the six-yard box at midriff height. His studs made contact and Spain led.
As it often
does, going a goal behind provides the impetuous to go forward and so it was
for Sweden. The Spanish defence started to creak and the loss of Puyol only
added to the problem. Ibrahimovic
worked hard to create his shooting chance but the Spanish defenders and
goalkeeper Iker Casillas were guilty of some very slack play.
The Swedish goalscorer did
not come out for second half and with his absence Sweden was relegated to increasingly
infrequent counter attacks. With no one to hold the ball up and to occupy the
Spanish defenders almost every clearance was pinning its way back towards the
Swedes penalty area in super quick time.
But just as it looked as
if Sweden would leave with a point Villa’s fourth goal of the tournament gave
Spain three points.
Greece 0-1 Russia
The result was
more important than the performances in this one. Greece loses and can go home
early. Russia may also be catching an early flight but at least they will go
into the final game against Sweden with a chance to progress. Sweden only needs
a draw but Russia will look to the return of Andrei Arshavin after
suspension as a major boost ahead of Wednesday’s decider.
Comment of the Day
“The
Dutch have dared to identify and promote new talents, while the French, like
the Italians, are paying a price for clinging to players of a certain vintage.
Yes, Lilian Thuram and Thierry Henry have been to the top of the world, but
neither has been a regular starter with their club, Barcelona, and Henry's
sinews are not the reliable carriers of his refined skills that we grew
to admire.
By
contrast, although the Netherlands' coach, Marco van Basten, has recalled Ruud
van Nistelrooy to lead his attack, he has trusted in the engine power, the
youth, and the ability of Sneijder and the creative touches of Rafael van der
Vaart. The coach also, with a nudge from providence, has Dirk Kuyt on his
right wing.” – Rob Hughes writing for the International Tribune.
Tip for the Day
Instantly distrust any
article or commentator that describes the current Dutch team as playing Total
Football ala Cruyff, Ajax and Netherlands in the seventies. They either did not
see the Dutch play at their peak or they have a very poor grasp of the concept.
At this tournament Marco
van Basten has the Dutch playing a system that makes the most of the talent and
abilities that he has available – basically what all coaches are expected to do.
So far the back four has held up well and the two deeper sitting midfield players
(mostly Engelaar and De Jong) have covered space and offered effective defensive
cover.
They defensive six have
provided a platform from which the likes of Sneijder and van der Vaart can display
their attacking talents. Up front operating as a lone striker Ruud Van
Nistelrooy has shown that old horses can learn new tricks. The ability to break
at speed has made the Dutch counter attacks spectacular and lethal but they owe
little to the concept of total football.
So far van Basten has his
team playing a very effective but relatively rigid 4-2-3-1 system that is markedly
different from the free flowing changing-position-almost-at-will philosophy we
saw from teams inspired by Rinus Michels. Michels required his players to be
masters of technique and to be tactically aware. Everyone should be able to play anywhere
was the basic idea but it needed almost perfect players to achieve it.
The 1974 Dutch team was
pretty close. Suurbier, Ruud Krol, Rijsbergen and
Haan were all accomplished players that could fit into almost any role asked of
them. The midfield did not have relatively static defensive midfielders but had
Jansen, Neeskens and the beautiful left foot of Wim Van Hanegem. Then we had Cruyff,
Johnny Rep and Rob Rensenbrink in attack.
Even goalkeeper Jan Jongbloed –
considered by many to be the weak link – made up for many of his short comings
by playing at times as sweeper as the Dutch back four pushed forward. What is
more is that there were superb players on the bench that could fit the Michels
system without a step being missed.
The Dutch have been a revelation
so far in this tournament but it is not because of any adherence to the
philosophy of Total Football.
Spain has qualified from the qualifying group stage of every European Championship bar two – 1972 and 1992. Seven times they have failed to progress past the last eight. In 1964 they won the European Championship and the two decades later they lost in the final to France. Four years ago they failed to qualify along with Russia in a group in which Portugal, and Greece moved on.
How they qualified Losses away to Sweden and Northern Ireland in the opening three games placed Spain firmly behind the eight-ball. However, they responded magnificently with eight wins and a draw away to Iceland the only blemish. Spain finished two points ahead of runners-up Sweden and eight ahead of Northern Ireland and Denmark. David Villa’s six goals for Spain all arrived in the first seven games of group play.
The Coach Describing Luis Aragones as controversial is a bit like saying Celtic and Rangers fans don’t often see eye-to-eye. If he isn’t feuding with players and the media, he is spouting inflammatory comments. At 70 years-old Aragones will be the oldest manager at the competition and he will step down at the conclusion of the tournament.
Key Players Last summer Fernando Torres’ move from Atletico Madrid to Liverpool was widely questioned given the money Liverpool paid and the fact that Torres had never scored twenty goals in a season.
Nearly twelve months later Torres has scored many more than twenty goals and is considered a bargain at $45m+. Valencia’s David Villa and Mallorca’s Daniel Guiza (top scorer in La Liga this past season) are also available and offer credible alternatives to Torres.
In goal Spain are very strong with Iker Casillas backed-up by Liverpool’s Pepe Reina and Sevilla’s Andres Palop. Sergio Ramos has developed into an outstanding defender for Real Madrid and this tournament might contribute to his growing reputation.
Great Euro Memory Spain won the European Championship in 1964 beating the Soviet Union 2-1. In the qualifying rounds Spain had beaten Romania and both of the Irelands.
The final was laced with politics as four years earlier the Fascist Spanish dictator General Francisco Franco had ordered Spain not to play the Soviet Union at the quarter final stage.
The Soviet’s then received a bye into the semis and eventually won the competition. However, in 1964 Franco could not resist the chance to demonstrate Spain’s superiority on the football field.
Spain beat a very good Hungary side 2-1 after extra time in the semi final while the Soviet Union dispatched Denmark 3-0. In the final Pereda gave Spain an early lead only for Khusainov to equalize before ten minutes was gone.
The score remained deadlocked until Marcelino (Real Zaragoza) scored from a header with only six minutes left. (The current Spanish squad recently met the 1964 team).
Synopsis Along with Russia, Spain is generally considered to be the consummate underachiever of world football. At so many major tournaments Spain has, on paper, a side capable of winning the whole enchilada.
But, games are not won on paper and we have become use to Spain starting a tournament like gangbusters only to fold like a cheap deckchair come the knock out rounds. They have the players – do they have the temperament and will they get a couple of fortunate breaks along the way?
Ironically Spain’s soft spot might be in midfield and that in turn may put the centre of defence under stress and strain. In midfield tidy passing types pervade but they may turn out to be lightweight over three weeks of competition. Ball possession may not be a problem but winning it and moving it quickly to the strikers could be.
Defensively in the middle of the park Marco Senna is the only specialty holding midfield player while the settlement of the feud between Valencia and gritty midfielder David Albelda came too late for his inclusion in the Spanish squad.
Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying Group 5 also consists of Turkey, Belgium, Bosnia Herzegovina, Armenia and Estonia.
Sweden has only competed at three previous European Championship finals. The first time was as host in 1992 when they reached the last four. They missed out in 1996 but qualified for the first time for the 2000 competition and appeared again four years later.
How they qualified Just under half of Sweden’s twenty-six points came from four consecutive wins to start Group F. With a six point gap with third place Northern Ireland it looks as if the Swede’s cruised through this group.
However, it needed a last round win against Latvia to secure the runners-up spot to Spain. A loss to Latvia and a win (all be it a shock one) by Northern Ireland in Spain would have meant the Irish traveling to Austria and Switzerland this summer. Old stand-by Marcus Allback scored six of Sweden’s twenty-three goals.
The Coach This will be the third trip to the European Championship finals for Lars Lagerback. Lagerback was initially appointed as the assistant to Tommy Soderberg 1998 before being appointed co-coach two years later. After Euro 2004 Soderberg stepped aside and Lagerback assumed sole control of the team.
Key Players Sweden will be heavily reliant on Inter’s Zlatan Ibrahimovic but the big striker has seen the edge go from his game since the turn of the year as he has battled a knee problem. Henrik Larsson has broken his international retirement again (more comebacks than Frank Sinatra) although his recall is more likely a sign of weakness in the squad than strength.
In attack John Elmander provides a big physical presence up front and he has scored at a respectable rate of one goal every three games for Sweden. He plays his club football for Toulouse has hit double figures in goals the last two seasons and is regularly mentioned in transfer talk. In midfield Kim Kallstrom has a prodigious work rate and an excellent left foot.
Great Euro Memory When Sweden hosted in 1992 they were drawn in a group with France, Denmark and England. Sweden drew the opener with France 1-1 and then proceeded to beat the eventual winners Denmark 1-0 courtesy of Leeds “legend” and Howard Wilkinson’s mate Thomas Brolin.
That set up a last round match against an England who in theory could have have qualified with a high scoring draw if the Denmark-France match had finished tied. In reality England really needed to win and going in at half time leading through an early David Platt goals things looked good for them. However, Jan Eriksson equalized just after half time and then a goal by Brolin was the final nail in England’s coffin.
In the semi-final Germany knocked Sweden out 3-2 although the score-line made the game seem closer than it actually was.
Synopsis Sweden regularly makes it to the World Cup finals but looks like a team that once it has hit the knock out stages is satisfied and ready to fly home. In Portugal four years ago Sweden played out a dreadful scoreless draw before losing to the Netherlands on penalties in a quarter final game. Competent but never a threat to win – that sums up Sweden.
Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying Drawn in Group 1 along with Portugal, Denmark, Hungary, Albania and Malta.
Here we go again. The intent is good, using a major tournament as the platform is not such a good idea.
Raphael Honigstein on the consummate late developer Luca Toni.
Last weekend in Serie A six of the top seven teams faced each other. The top three (Inter, Roma and Juventus) all won. The next four teams (Fiorentina, Milan, Sampdoria and Udinese) all suffered losses and remain locked in a tight struggle for the last Champions League spot.
Fiorentina are four points ahead of Milan and Sampdoria and Udinese are a point further behind. Down at the less glamorous end of the league seven teams are in a dog fight to avoid the three drop spots. Last weekend only Empoli (draw), Cagliari and Reggina (wins) did themselves any favours while the woes of Torino, Catania, Parma and Livorno continued.
With five games left until the end of the season this weekend has a schedule that has eight fixtures that are crucial to the title race, the last Champions league spot or relegation. Only Juventus with third place almost guaranteed away to Atalanta, and Siena (eight points above the last relegation spot) versus Genoa (comfortably in eighth) have a “who cares” look about them.
With two successive wins Inter appear to have regained some traction in a bid to win their third scudetto. This weekend Inter is in Turin to play Torino and both teams currently enjoy four point gaps – Inter on second place Roma and Torino on eighteenth place Reggina.
Torino made Walter Novellino the thirteenth (particularly unlucky) coaching casualty of the Serie A season and followed the lead of a number of struggling clubs by bringing back a former coach. In this case Gianni De Biasi who quit the team sitting firmly at the foot of the Spanish Primera Liga Levante to rejoin Torino. Novellino stepped in to replace De Biasi last summer.
Turin’s other team has the second worst home record in Serie A but only two of the sixteen home games this season have been decided by more than a single goal and both times Torino won. A new coach, a home record that is perhaps not as bad as it may appear might add up to a tough assignment for Inter especially given that they will again be missing top scorer Zlatan Ibrahimovic. A knee problem has caused the big Swede to miss the last three matches and the next question whether or not he will be ready for the Milan derby in a fortnight.
Roma appears to have the easier game with slumping Livorno the opposition. Livorno have only one win in their last 15 league games and one win against Roma in Rome in the same number of attempts. Livorno sunk to bottom spot after losing to Cagliari last weekend and although they still have time to escape with games against Milan, Atalanta, Torino and Empoli still to come they will have to start scoring goals more regularly. Seven goals in 15 games have taken them to the precipice.
Reggina pulled off a surprise 1-0 win over Sampdoria last Sunday courtesy o####oal from Franco Brienza. The January transfer window signing from Palermo has now scored seven times and if Reggina are to survive then the former Italy international is the most likely hero. However, considering that Reggina are one of three teams without an away win this season – and have only scored eight goals on the road - any away match is going to be problematic.
This weekend it is Milan at the San Siro and Reggina are likely to face a resurgent Inzaghi who has scored two doubles in Milan’s last two matches. No matter the outcome this weekend Reggina will maintain control of their own fate as they will face fellow strugglers Parma, Catania, Empoli and Cagliari in their final four games.
When coach Davide Ballardini took hold of the Cagliari reigns (the return of another former coach) the club had collected a miserable ten points in their first 17 games. In the next sixteen games another 22 points have been earned and last weekend Cagliari was able to jump two points above the last relegation spot by beating Livorno with a double from Acquafresca.
Another key game this weekend has the Sardinian side up against second from the bottom Empoli. Empoli (with another recalled manager Gigi Cagni) have shown signs of resuscitation with a win and a draw in the last two after a run that saw only a single point from a possible total of 21.
Despite sitting above Empoli, Cagliari are in more need of the win as they finish the season against Inter, Fiorentina, Udinese before a final round game against Reggina. Empoli have to play Genoa and Udinese then finish with Livorno and Reggina.
Further up the table Fiorentina will be hoping to continue a run of eight games that has seen them go W,L after losing to Inter. Palermo have won their last two games (another multi-manager team) but have lost ten times awy from home and only collected twelve points in 16 games. Even a moderately decent road record would have had the Sicilian team challenging for a Champions League position.
The winner of the Sampdoria vs. Udinese match will retain a credible interest in fourth spot while the loser can forget it and battle instead for a UEFA Cup spot. Sampdoria have only lost once at home this season although another six games have finished as draws. Last weekend’s single goal loss to Reggina was the first time Sampdoria have been shut out in fourteen matches while Udinese loss to Roma was their first set back in eight league games.
After England’s European Championship exit there has been even more debate on foreign quotas and player development. The Times has run a series of articles over the last week on how some other countries in the world go about the job of developing players and encouraging participation.
Holland – a place for everyone. Out of all the models that are out there this seems to be one of few that acknowledges that it is not just about elite development and neither is it just about encouraging people to play.
At the heart of the Dutch model is the belief that for the sport to be healthy there has to be a place for players of all abilities. It seems to me that the North American debate (definitely the Canadian debate) is polarized with recreation on one end of the spectrum and elite development on the other with no one willing to give an inch. The truth of the matter is neither of the polarities have it right.
Here’s something from www.footballeconomy.com ‘The average annual salary of a footballer in England's top flight has broken through the £1m ceiling for the first time. Players in the Premiership are now earning 15 times more than the 'golden generation' who lifted the World Cup in 1966, even when inflation is factored in.
In 1966 First Division players were paid an average of £100 a week by their clubs. When performance-related bonuses are taken into account, today's figure stands at £21,000 a week according to accountants Deloitte. The rate of increase means that footballers earn almost as much in a week as the average person is paid in a year.
Moore's World Cup-winning team earned about six times the national average week in 1966. Deloitte predicts that the first £200,000 a week player, equivalent to an annual salary of £10m, will emerge by 2010”.
And on to the action that is in store this weekend. It is hard to look beyond Serie A with the top five clubs plus European champions Milan facing off. Current league leaders Inter remain unbeaten after twelve games and are only two points off the record breaking pace that they set last season.
Inter travels to play Fiorentina on what will prove to be an emotional occasion. Fiorentina Coach Cesare Prandelli lost his wife on Monday after a three year fight with cancer. Many of you will remember that Prandelli had just taken over the reins at Roma in 2004 when she was diagnosed with the disease and he opted to stand down.
The coach was not on the bench last weekend as his team drew away to Reggina but he is expected back for Sunday’s match.
Fiorentina started the season unbeaten in their first eleven matches before succumbing to Udinese a couple of weeks ago. Even so Fiorentina, four points behind Inter with a game more played, have already played Roma, Juventus and Milan this season and drawn all three games. Schemer Riccardo Montolivo is suspended and will be missing from the home side’s line-up.
Inter qualified for the last sixteen of the Champions League in midweek and when combined with the league lead things are looking good for Coach Roberto Mancini. What’s more Inter have only lost once (Feb 2006 2-1) to Fiorentina in their last nine Serie A meetings and are undefeated away from home in the league since April 2006.
Julio Cruz (6 goals) and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (7 goals) pack a wallop up front and summer signing David Suazo looked sharp last week as he scored a goal and set up another.
Milan and Juventus will be reacquainted after Juve’s one year leave from the top flight. Like Inter, Milan have already sealed a spot in the last sixteen of the Champions League although the winners or runners up spot have still to be decided.
Milan have the Club World Cup in Japan (on FSC) in a couple of weeks which means missing a week of Serie A action and then they have the local derby on the weekend before Christmas. When you add it all up it means that Milan can ill-afford to see the current gap with Inter and the chasing pack widen any further.
Currently the European Champions are eleven points behind the leaders while fourth placed Udinese are eight points ahead albeit with a game more played. Milan’s home form has been poor and they are still winless in the league after four draws and two losses.
Juventus have slipped effortlessly back into the top league with twenty-five points from thirteen games – good for second spot. But while their home form has been very impressive (16 points from 7 games) there is lots of room for improvement when on the road.
Only nine points have come from six away games with ten goals given up and only one shut out so far. Trezeguet and Iaquinta have combined for 17 league goals with eleven of them coming at home.
Udinese are one of the good news stories so far in Europe. A team that has historically enjoyed modest success are sitting fourth with five wins and three draws coming in the last eight games.
Wins against Fiorentina and Juventus have fans of Serie A sitting up and taking notice. They don’t score a lot of goals but when they do they seem to make them count. Away from home they have shut out the opposition four times in seven matches and although they only average a goal a game that has translated into a very respectable twelve points.
Only Milan (13 points) and Roma (17 points) can better that mark and it is to Rome that Udinese travels this weekend. Given their record so far Roma might be wishing it was the other way around.
Nearly 70% of Roma’s points this season have been picked up away from home while five home games have only generated an unexceptional eight points – only Milan out of the top ten teams have secured fewer (4).
Quick free kicks – The Barcelona derby promises to be a cracker. Espanyol unbeaten in their last nine games and are a heady fourth only two points below Barcelona and four behind Real Madrid.
Barca failed to beat their neighbours in the two games last season (a loss and a draw) and take their dreadful away form to the Olympic stadium. But the stadium has not seen very many goals this season with only nine coming in six games.
Whereas Espanyol have lost once at home Barcelona have only won once away from the Nou Camp. But perhaps the most interesting statistic is that Espanyol’s seven wins have all been by one goal so far.
Gongatore - If warranted is there a side in Europe that you could see Altidore going to in the next transfer window? How do you rate Cruz and Zlatan at Inter?
Bobby – Moving clubs is an individual decision but from my point of view I think the rush to have Jozy Altidore move to Europe is ill-advised. He’s better off in MLS where he can play regularly for the next season or two. If he really makes an impact then when he moves he will be on his terms.
Cruz has scored goals throughout his career and continues to do so – a reliable goal scorer but well short of being one of the best. Zlatan on his day can be one of the world’s best players. It depends on whether or not it is his day!
Albertagooner - I'm trying to figure out how Patrick Barclay has managed to spot Arsenal's aerial weakness. Neither of United's goals involved a high ball hoofed into the box. In any event, both Gallas and Toure have a wonderful spring. I'd rather have them than taller defenders who have difficult marking strikers, such as Jamie Carragher or John Terry.
Bobby – I think Barclay is identifying a more traditional weakness rather than one that showed up on Saturday. The problem use to show up when Sol Campbell was missing and there is still a doubt in my mind about how well Arsenal deal with crosses.
It seems to me one of the things that they have improved on this year is not allowing so many crosses to reach the penalty box. I don’t have the stats to prove that and it could just be a case of Arsenal retaining more possession. I never considered Jamie Carragher to have had any trouble marking strikers. The only issue with Terry is that sometimes he can be caught out by a quick forward one-on-one but his anticipation and the way he plays the angles makes it a rare occurrence.
gabemar - Would you rate the chances of the three teams (Villarreal, Fiorentina and Man. City), who seem to be challenging the status quo on the three big leagues, at contending for at least CL spot until the end of the season? Also the last few weeks you have not been wearing your glasses at FSR. Are you wearing contacts or did you have lasik surgery? How do you like not wearing them?
Bobby – Villarreal and Fiorentina, Champions League spots yes. Manchester City – the jury is still out. Apart from a very poor start last season Villarreal has been a consistent performer in Liga for a few seasons now and it would not be a surprise to see them finish in the top four.
Fiorentina has an outstanding manger in Cesare Prandelli did a great job with Parma and it was unfortunate that he could not stick with Roma when he was appointed. Fiorentina’s Sporting Director Pantaleo Corvino has a great reputation and the two of them seem to putting together a very good team – even though they regularly lose players. Mutu is playing great again and Pazzini could become a very good player. There are lots of others as well.
City has a habit of starting well and fading and it might turn out to be different under SGE. However, it was interesting to note that Eriksson commented last week that he felt that other clubs might be preparing better when facing City. I think what he really meant was other teams were looking for ways to shut down Elano. Against Sunderland yesterday City collected three points but it was brutal performance by both sides.
I had laser surgery a few weeks ago and it has been great. No problems and I have my distance sight back again. Still need readers for close work in poor light but that was expected.
Flashman - How much longer can AC Milan resist the urge to pull the trigger and bring in a new manager? Huh? And how much longer can AC Milan resist the urge to make that new manager the former manager at Chelski? Yeah, the Portuguese bloke, Mourinho. That's the one.
And how long will we have to endure the myth that this year's edition of the Arsene Wenger Slight of Hand Show is the New Invincibles? Coz it ain't. It simply has to be said, because no one elsewhere has bothered to note this, that Arsenal, thus far, have played one of the softest league schedules imaginable. They've been outside of London proper only once in league play this year and coughed up an away draw to nasty Bla-hack-ahack-aburn Rovers.
Bobby – Ancelotti’s now served six years at the San Siro and his time has to be up soon. One way of coaxing the last possible piece of talent out of an older squad is to change the manager.
In terms of Arsenal’s schedule so far you are right but it is a bit of a red herring. London teams are all going to be in a similar position given that if you include Reading there are six London teams. That means that this season Arsenal will play nearly 2/3rds of their games in the London area. The counter to your argument has been put forward by a number of London clubs. The suggestion is that because of the high number of derby games London clubs actually have a tougher time of it.
Arsenal’s schedule is out of sync but that is down to the Champions League third round qualifying game that bumped an early season trip to Newcastle. As for being an easy schedule there are always going to be easy and more difficult runs. But if you compare to Tottenham’s schedule you will find that both clubs have played Sunderland, Derby, Manchester United, Fulham, Bolton, Liverpool and Blackburn Rovers. Spurs have faced five away games to Arsenal’s three. Of the remaining games Spurs have played Villa, Newcastle, Boro and Everton. Arsenal have played Manchester City, Portsmouth, and West Ham. Overall – probably about even.
PS – you missed Arsenal’s visit to Anfield of two weeks ago.
CIAO - When players and managers move to other clubs for large sums of money, you always hear them say "it wasn't about the money." The move usually is to a club that has a greater opportunity to win trophies.
That said, Ramos' move to Spurs puzzles me. He essentially built a good side that has been winning trophies. He quits too move to the Spurs. A club that placed 5th in the EPL for the past two seasons and has not won trophies. Does not play in the CL and potentially may not even qualify to play the CL next season...
It just doesn't add up. Do you by chance see some other reason (other than large sums of money) that would make Ramos' move an attractive one?
Bobby – Well the first thing I would point out is that Ramos did not build that Sevilla team – he has only been there for a little more than two seasons. He certainly turned them into trophy winners but the foundation was put in place for him – he took them over the top.
Sporting Director Ramon Rodriguez Verdejo appears to have played a more important role in turning Sevilla into a top club than Ramos. I don’t think Ramos tried to hide the fact that the money was too good to turn down.
Aldoray - What do you think about Peter Crouch as a player and his situation at Liverpool. I believe he is seriously being overlooked too often and he might be hitting the exit door at Anfield very soon along with Kewell.
Bobby – Here we go again. As I said on Monday night’s FSR a lot of people seem to think that because he is awkward to play against that it makes him a great player. When you hear Steven Gerrard suggest that Crouch has a great chance to break Jimmy Greaves England scoring record then you have to shake your head in disbelief.
The “Crouch is Great” lobby seems to base their views on his scoring record to minutes played as opposed to games appeared in. The argument goes something like this. He has an impact when he comes on and scores lots of goals so he should be on more often or earlier or even from the beginning. So let’s see if the statistics actually back up the view that Crouch is an underappreciated talent by Rafa Benitez and others.
I would suggest that the best statistics to use are from the Premiership. Reason – it gives a comparison to other strikers plus it shows the longer term effectiveness of a player against sides that are better prepared to play against the player having scouted strengths, weaknesses etc. more thoroughly.
Over the last two seasons and a bit Peter Crouch has appeared in 70 Premiership games for Liverpool – he has started in 47 and come on as a substitute in 23. He has scored 15 Premiership goals. Only four of these goals have been clutch goals – goals that either turned a potential draw into a win or a loss into a draw.
His average scoring rate is one goal every 4.66 appearances. That rate doesn’t get him in the top 100 Premiership scorers. Comparison examples - Henri Camara 3.41, James Beattie 3.99, Jan-Aage Fjortoff 3.36, Marian Pahars 3.07, Dion Dublin 2.81.
But, the Crouch lobby would argue, that goals per appearance are not a reliable indicator because although Crouch may appear many of his appearances are relatively short and have to be adjusted for. So in the interest of fairness I went back over the minutes actually played and converted into the equivalent of full ninety minute games.
This substantially improves Crouch’s average – it translates to a goal every 2.81 games, equal to Dion Dublin’s but Dublin’s average has not been adjusted to minutes played. I must have missed the “Dublin for England” lobby a few years ago.
So how does Crouch’s record stack up against some of his contemporaries? I looked at two younger players over the last two and a bit seasons – Robin van Persie and Bobby Zamora. Based on goals per minutes played RVP clocks in at an average o####oal every 2.08 Premiership games - Bobby Zamora a goal every 2.64 Premiership games. Both substantially better than Crouch.
The next point that is normally argued is that Crouch is good in the air. Given that he is five inches short of seven foot tall he should be. Well what do the statistics show? Four of his 15 Premiership goals at Liverpool have come from headers (midfielder Tim Cahill in two and a bit seasons has scored from five headers for Everton).
An interesting stat that sticks out is how few games Crouch actually completes – only 19 full Premiership games in 47 starts. And it is not just a case of being substituted in the last five minutes. His average stint in a Premiership game for Liverpool (based on him starting) when substituted, is just a few seconds short of 65 minutes.
It’s also something that shows up in his England appearances. Add it all up and a reasonable conclusion is that Crouch finds it difficult to play ninety minutes hence the reason that Benitez starts him on bench so often. Rather than playing him against fresh players it would make more sense to have him come on late when defences are tired. And guess what - he looks impressive.
But the “Crouch is Great” group then jump to Crouch’s goals in the Champions League and for England. On the basis of goals scored his numbers are impressive…….but. His goals for England have come against Estonia, Macedonia, Andorra, Greece, Trinidad & Tobago, Jamaica, Hungary and Uruguay - clutch goals two. In addition he has only completed nine games although he has collected 22 caps.
In Champions League last season he scored all seven goals against group opponents (although PSV were also opponents in the first knock out phase). It strongly suggests that again Crouch’s value is in his awkwardness to play against and uniqueness. Teams facing him for the first time have difficulty dealing with him but over time they solve the problem.
So if you are looking for a striker who is tall but not necessarily good in the air, isn’t up to playing ninety minutes, and has trouble scoring clutch goals then I guess Peter Crouch is your man.
As for heading out of the door – could happen but he will not be joining a team better than Liverpool that is going to give him any more playing time.
Syncrew - 1 Now that Avram Grant has had 10 or so matches in charge ,what do you see as the big difference between Jose's and Avram's Chelsea ? 2 Since it’s up on the blog I may as well ask who you think is the most underrated and overrated striker in Europe? 3 How do you rate Alex? He seems to be doing well in place of Terry and is keeping Ben-Haim out of the team. (Ignore that foul against Schalke.)
Bobby – 1. It’s quieter around Stamford Bridge and Sir Alex Ferguson is aiming shots exclusively at the Emirates again.
2. You will have to define underrated and overrated. As I’ve pointed out before just because a player is considered “overrated” it doesn’t mean that he is not better than an “underrated” player. If I had to sign one striker in the world it would be a fit Samuel Eto’o.
3. Alex - Good player although I’m not sure keeping Ben-Haim out of the team should be the measure of him. I think his potential is well beyond a competent journeyman such as Ben-Haim.
Gunner44 - Is it Healthy for the game that 3 or is 4 managers have already lost their jobs and it's only been 2 1/2 months in the league. Is it the managers that are to blame or the Board? I read somewhere that someone said if Spurs don't improve the whole board should be fired.
Don't managers deserve more time to prove themselves? Very few managers have the ability to turn a team into a winning side in their first season. Like Jol should have been given at least till Jan before they left them go. He had been in top 5 for 2 straight seasons and almost took Arsenal out of top 4. Taking ManUre, Chelski, Liverfools and Arse out of top 4 won't be an easy thing to do and Jol came very close to doing it.
Bobby – It is a merry-go-round and I think the managers are wise to it. Sign a three year deal for a lot of money – if you get fired you get a huge pay out. What astonishes me are the choices that some owners make – Sammy Lee and Chris Hutchings stand out. The cost of relegation is huge (even after parachute payments) and if the club’s finances are stretched with longer term player contracts involving Premiership wages even if the side is relegated then the a financial meltdown is possible.
Djnima -1. What do you think is the reason of Lampard's turnaround in form? 2. Have you heard anything of McLaren's visit to LA? A little bird told me that he may become the manager of the Galaxy after England doesn’t qualify. Becks has been recalled. Do you think he will make 100 caps?
Bobby – 1. The form of all players comes and goes and isn’t necessarily based on scoring goals. Lampard has spent the games prior to the one against Leicester in the Carling Cup shooting from almost anyplace. Just because they have started going in doesn’t mean that his form has necessarily turned around.
2. McClaren’s visit to LA appears to be pointless and beyond the ridiculous rumour that he is shopping himself to LA Galaxy I have not heard a reasonable explanation. If McClaren was looking to move then surely he would not be as stupid as this.
At least when SGE met with Abramovich he at least tried to keep it undercover. Has Becks been recalled? You are ahead of me on that one. How about another explanation – McClaren came over in person to tell Beckham that he has not been recalled?
Wiegs9 – I have a silly question that maybe somebody can answer. What are the large, reddish #### lapel pins that you, Jeremy and Mitch were wearing last night and the ones that the Sky Sports presenters (and some Premiership managers) are wearing? Unfortunately, I must have missed the show where this was mentioned. Thanks!
Bobby – They are red poppies that are worn in Commonwealth countries in honour of the people who gave their lives during the wars. Remembrance Day is November 11 and the poppy is worn as a symbol and a mark of respect. The poppy flower was chosen as they grow in Flanders where some of the most brutal battles of WW1 were fought.
JayAlves - "Fergie support for Blatter stance on imports Sir Alex Ferguson believes clubs should be seen to have 'a proportion of home-based players' - and feels rivals Arsenal would 'protest the loudest' at such a rule.”
Bobby – It is a sure sign that Ferguson is more concerned about Arsenal than the likes of Chelsea and Liverpool. I understand the full article quotes him as saying that all that would need to happen is for the Premiership clubs to agree to such a proposal. He is wrong.
Unless UEFA/FIFA are given full autonomy over soccer in Europe (and it is clear that will not happen) it would need the European Union to repeal the commitment to the free movement of labour within member countries (as it applies to soccer player) or at the very least agree to the exception under the terms of the "Lisbon Treaty" of a few weeeks ago which regards sport as special. It cannot be done unilaterally just because a few rich owners decide that they would like to.
Although I’m sure that the United owners would be happy to see the value of their investment erode as worldwide television money would shrink and the price of “home-grown” players rocket.
In a perverted way United are to blame for this. Before Matt Busby took over the manager’s job at United teams never groomed young players as a way to build a team. They signed local players who played at lower levels or proven professional players from other clubs.
It was United’s then chairman James Gibson and Busby who came up with the idea of signing the best young players and developing them. The initial focus was on Manchester youngsters but as the pool dried up United cast a much wider net to cover the rest of England as well as Scotland, Wales and both parts of Ireland.
That is why the Busby Babes came from so many different parts of the British Isles. Other clubs would complain about United poaching “their” local products. Arsenal is using the same philosophy except now scouting is done on a global basis.
MasMaz -I agree and disagree with your numbers on people watching Football worldwide. They are not anywhere as high as they claim but they are higher than you say. Especially for the WC final and the Champs league final. Did you ever see that movie about the child buddhist monk and his buddies trying to catch the '02 final?
Impossible to verify but I would guess that 200 million people watched the '02 final in Europe and South America between the 2 continents alone, adding the rest of the world I would say at least 300 million, maybe even 400.
Bobby – Television viewership of sporting events in 2006 - articles including numbers.
Henry14 - Q1 if you were Wenger would you buy Baptista for $20m for what he has done this season?
Q2 - What do you make of Southgate playing a week side because personally l never fancy them at Old Trafford and they are not safe from Charlton
Q3 - l see Bendtner going ahead of Adebayor in the ranks because he is by far a better player than Adebayor. He has been likened to Ibrahimovic but my question to you is Ibrahimovic probably the best player in Serie A.
Q 4 - What do you think about Alessandro Rossina of Torino?
Bobby – Q1 – I would not. Even though I believe players need time to settle down I don't think Baptista hasn’t shown enough to be worth that kind of money.
Q2 – I think Southgate did the right thing. Charlton will not catch them and even if they did three clubs will still finish below Boro. They have been playing well and they have to play West Ham, Watford, Villa, Wigan and Fulham out of the 8 games left. They only have to get two more wins and they will be safe. There are a lot of potential six pointers between teams in the bottom half and they will take points off each other.
Q3 – How many goals to you think Adebayor would have scored in the Championship this season? More than Bendtner I would wager. Adebayor has proven himself in the Premiership; something that Bendtner has yet to do. I wouldn’t consider Ibrahimovic the best player in Serie A until he manages to play consistently well two seasons in a row.
Q4 – In the Torino games I have watched this season (only a couple) he has not stood out.
Verbal97 - Rafa Benitez thinks that the larger teams should be able to have a reserve team play competitvely in the Championship so that the younger players can get first team experience (like they do in Spain). Do you think this is a good idea? Do you think there is any chance that this will ever be implemented?
Bobby – It would require a major shift of opinion in England and I don’t think it has a hope in hell of happening. You can look to the continent but it is not a fair comparison. No other second flight league on the continent attracts the size of crowds that we see in the Championship. Such a move would complete devalue the Championship – which of course might be what the Premiership is interested in doing!
Venti_Vidi_Vici - I find the refereeing in England to be very inconsistent. As this particular incident clearly illustrates, if a defender makes a sliding tackle in the penalty area, he absolutely has to get the ball. If he misses, which Woodgate and Carvalho both did yesterday, it’s going to be a penalty whether there is much contact or not, because the striker is going to go down – it is just how football is played. I don’t understand why neither was booked for taking down a player who was through on goal. I make a distinction between diving and accentuating. Ronaldo basically accentuated minor contact; in other words, took advantage of a mistimed amateurish tackle by Woodgate. I don’t blame Ronaldo; he did what any other striker should do in that situation. In both cases IMO penalties were correctly awarded.
Buffytvs - Why is it that suddenly every penalty call is labeled 'controversial'? Woodgate fouled Ronaldo in the area -- penalty. Tevez was brought down in the area -- penalty. Boateng handled in the area -- penalty. What the *&%$ is controversial about any of these decisions? I've seen far more clear penalties NOT called this season than soft ones given (although no-one seems to be calling the call against Vidic on Saturday 'controversial', I still don't know what he's supposed to have done).
MasMaz - I love Ronaldo, but he starts and stops in his run-up taking penalties and more takers are doing it, unfair for keepers and they should crack down on this, and they will when some minnow does it against one of the big four.
Venti_Vidi_Vici - The rule of the law with regards to taking a penalty is once the ref blows the whistle, and the player starts his run to the ball, he may not stop. Some try to stutter step or slow down, to try and get the goal to commit one way. I've only ever seen a ref order a retake once, but I really did think the Ronaldo penalty should've been retaken because he did stop and start.
Gongatore - I find all this nonsense about "the rule of law" quite amusing. Keepers aren't supposed to do jumping jacks on the goal line whilst awaiting a PK yet a lot of them do including PC yesterday. CR does what many PK takers do. Enough with the rule of law rubbish. What I believe this is ultimately all about is what several posters already stated, a hatred of CR and perhaps even Manu and just sour grapes. And for all you whinging England fans Wayne Rooney alone is responsible for his red card in WC 2006.
In the end, hate is such a powerful and useless word and emotion. Reserve it for really evil things in life or people that truly deserve it not athletes of any creed or color. Let's stick to respectful debate with humor and reason.
Bobby – As you can see a ton of comments on penalty kicks this week. I agree with Buffytvs – anytime a penalty is given it seems to become a controversial decision. Both penalties on Monday were dead certs as was the one given against Boateng a week past Saturday. I thought the only element of controversy was the fact that Ricardo Carvalho was not sent off.
As for the stutter step – it is completely legal from what I understand. I cannot see anything in the rules that outlaws it - or stopping for that matter. Goalkeepers are entitled to do anything on and along their goal line as long as they are facing the kicker – so mooning is definitely illegal.
As a final note on Ronaldo - Rooney situation. As Jeremy pointed out on Monday who was the first player over to confront Morrison after he whacked Ronaldo on Monday? It was Wayne Rooney.
Henry14 - You get the feeling that the new date for Chelsea and Man Utd on May 9 there is a high chance that Chelsea will start with a guard of honour against Man. U. because if the gape is still six points and the goal difference then United can afford to play a second string. Chelsea will need to go to the Emirates on a Saturday and if they do not win united are already popping the champagne. Do you think this is a physiological blow for Chelsea since Mourinho is always saying it’s a pity they do not play now?
Bobby – A potentially killer blow I would say. Chelsea wants to get at United ASAP in the hope that they can beat them, reduce the gap to three (really four because of goal difference) and hope that United folds.
Henry14 - What do you make of David Navarro 7 month ban from all football? l feel it a ridiculous ban, because there is no parity. You look at the Betis and Seville fight and it was not given such a harsh ban, Kolo 's fight , the Schalke guy who punched Schneider, do you think that UEFA and FIFA run some weird dictatorship on the way they had bans because it is unnecessary.
Bobby – Navarro is lucky that he will be allowed to play before 2009. I can’t see how the Navarro incident can be compared to the others. He was a substitute who didn’t even play. Of course that doesn’t mean that UEFA and FIFA are not some weird dictatorship!
realmadridccfan - Q1. Out of all the big European teams in Euro 2008 qualifying that are in trouble (Italy, Spain, England, Portugal), which do you think will be under the gun to get results as well as which do you see gaining/losing the most in this round of qualifiers?
Q2. While I like Inter Milan's incredible form in the Italian Serie A, as they will likely win the title, when they eventually win the title, how legitimate of a title win will this be for Inter? Would you but a big asterisk beside this one considering the match fixing scandal from last season affected this season's play?
Q3. What do you think needs to be done to fix the constant "crises" at Real Madrid? Is it time that Real Madrid stopped the idea of buying a "galaticos" per season and focused on their youth academy to build their team?
Bobby – Q1 – All are under great pressure. It would say Spain is in the worst position. I still see Italy qualifying as well as England and Portugal. Q2 – Inter’s forthcoming scudetto will be well earned. Even after accounting for points deducted they will finish comfortably ahead of anyone else. Q3 – The era of buying "galaticos" was gone the moment that Capello took over. The plan this season was to shore up the side with signings such as Cannavaro, Emerson and Van Nistelrooy – the short term plan. The longer term plan you can see with the likes of Gago and Higuain. The mess that Perez created is not going to fixed in a season or perhaps even two.
Gongatore - Do you think it's time that FIFA really starts to assess the amount of matches clubs play as I believe the sport is suffering (primarily in Europe) as a result of too many competitions? Or will FIFA just run to the bank and disregard the integrity of the game?
Bobby – I think you have to consider that it has been Sepp Blatter and FIFA that have been pushing for 16 team leagues – although on the other hand they have also “created” the FIFA Club World Cup. If the ruling bodies and the clubs were serious about reducing the number of games then I think it could be easily done. Sixteen team leagues, a straight knock out format for the Champions League/UEFA Cup along with smaller European and World Cup qualifying groups could knock 12-15 games a season off the schedule for top teams. Unfortunately both sides (FIFA/UEFA on one side – the clubs on the other) have insatiable appetites for cash and they expect the other side to reduce the games under their control. Bottom line is don’t expect changes anytime soon.
djnima - Was wondering if you have any lesser known young talent that you see making an impact next season. Are there any South American or European young players you see making a big impact on FSC?
Also, though there has been speculation that Henry would leave Arsenal soon, you have stated that you don't see Henry leaving anytime soon. With the amount of money Arsenal are shelling out for his contract, when do you see him finally leaving Arsenal?
Bobby – I’m looking forward to the Under-20 World Championship in Canada this summer. The last edition gave us our first good look at Lionel Messi and it has over the years provided a stage for some great players to emerge. As far as the EPL is concerned there is a player called Giles Barnes at Derby County (they have a great chance to move up from the Championship) who has been garnering rave reviews. I have seen very little of him but I have heard from a mate in the UK that he is going to be a star.
If Henry is to leave Arsenal it will be with a year left on his existing deal which is up I believe in 2010.
Bufftvs – Now that Tevez looks like he can play in the EPL, where will he be next year? And who else from West Ham do you see moving on when they go down, as seems inevitable?
Bobby – I can’t see Tevez staying with West Ham or moving to another Premiership team. Spain or Italy would be likely destinations I suppose.
Henry14 - Do you see Wenger signing Eto'o if he is made available? As an Arsenal fan l feel we are probably an Eto'o like striker and a winger of Ribery's quality from challenging for the title and if Wenger does not have a trophy next season do you see him being told to go to the board of directors and stop coaching? Q2 looking at the remaining fixtures who has the advantage to win the title Chelsea or United?
Bobby – I don’t see Arsenal having the kind of money it would take to sign Eto’o. Plus I cannot see Barcelona making him available. As I see it he would be the last player that they would want to let go. Ribery is a more likely transfer target. As for Wenger being upstairs I don’t think that is going to happen either. A manager is moved for one primary reason – the board thinks that someone else could do a better job. Given that they have supported him in the youth movement I can’t see them giving up before it is complete.
United has the advantage in that they can afford at a minimum to lose to Chelsea and to one other team and still win the title because they have a much better goal difference – 16 goals is a lot to make up. In terms of the teams they each have to play it looks very even to me.
bigdave disaster - Is there anything more to read into Henrik Larsson, king of kings, leaving Man U than just his loyalty toward Helsingborgs? Man U prime to win the league and very much in contention for FA and more importantly Champions League it would seem the only person happy is Saha.
Bobby – Larsson showed when he left Celtic and Barcelona that he very much knows his own mind. From a Manchester United perspective I don’t think chasing Larsson would be a good message to send to the other forwards. He is 35 and is not one for the future. It has been fun watching him the last few weeks though. It has also been fun listening to the number of commentators who have suddenly realized what a great player he is/was.
wja425 - What are the consequences of relegation for a player? I have heard that contracts are often written such that they become null if a team is relegated. For a player who stays with a club on a contract negotiated while the team was in the Premier League, do their wages remain at their original level, or are there automatic pay cuts written in if the club is relegated?
Bobby – It depends on the contract. The North American comparison would be one-way or two-way contracts in hockey. Some players enjoy enough clout to negotiate a salary level no matter what happens; while others might have to accept a significant reduction should relegation happen. Lucas Neil is rumoured to have a “get-out” clause should/when West Ham are relegated. I assume that it would allow him to become a free agent.
Flashman - Enjoy watching the weekly EPL review you do Bobby, but after your review of West Ham-Spurs, you said 'You have to feel sorry for West Ham.' Really.
Their season of sel####estruction includes a bizarre pre-season of takeover speculation, signing players illegally(allegedly), players' gambling addiction problems, boardroom turmoil, a dysfunctional, clique-filled roster full of self-centred 'Bentley Babes', sideline punchups, sacking a manager who comes back to thrash them and a player charged with assault in a nightclub rhubarb who then leaves the country against club rules.
To that you can add, as the media report that the Upton Park stadium announcer made a series of inappropriate comments and an FA investigation that Spurs fans were racially taunted throughout Sunday's game.What exactly is there to feel sorry for with a club like this? Oh, sure, they have a history; just not sure they have a future to match it. Also, since they are often Spurs' feeder club, do you see anyone shifting over? They have some good players but this season really puts a stain on some reputations.
Bobby – The comment was made in the context of the game not in relation to West Ham’s history or off field antics. In order to have cracking game like that you need two sides going at it and that was the case on Sunday. In that sort of situation it is tough to see one team walk/limp away with nothing to show for their efforts. However, having said that football is often a cruel game.
I read that Marlon Harewood might be a Spurs target – I found that surprising. The Spurs left side is still a problem but I don’t see Paul Konchesky providing a solution or Matthew Etherington who Spurs gave up on previously. Luis Boa Morte perhaps?
Danny Gabbidon is a fine player who WHU have badly missed this season and Dean Ashton – if he recovers from the broken ankle – could play for any side in England.
ulsterson - All the recent articles the youth and future of the English game as well as a low murmuring about so few English players on EPL teams made me wonder what ever came of the laws FIFA seemed to be trying to pass a while back. If I remember correctly it had to do with a certain number or percentage of players being required to have come up through the youth system or at least in the league. I don't know how great that would be for the EPL but I would think it would help individual nations nurture their young talent to a greater degree and perhaps forge more of a bond between club and country. Any news on this or did I miss it?
Bobby – The proposal is still on the table but the big clubs are fighting it.
Gunner44 - I read this on BBC is it true and if it is how good is this guy? "Arsenal are weighing up a £6m summer swoop for Ajax winger Ryan Babel. (Daily Mirror)"
Bobby – The Daily Mirror is not all that reliable although Wenger has been linked with a bid for Babel before. I have not seen very much of him lately but he played for Holland in the FIFA Under 20s two seasons ago and looked very good. Being an Ajax product – there again so was Patrik Kluivert!! - £6m would seem to be a bargain but he has only scored three league goals this season so I am wondering if he has stalled out. Any Dutch league fans out there that can add anything?
verbal97 - Ahead of the build-up to the 2nd leg today, Liverpool's website asked who would you build your team around - Gerrard or Ronaldinho? Not surprisingly, Gerrard got 95.4% of the vote. But that got me thinking, if you were offered carte blanche to build a team right now, who would be your choice of player to build your team around and why?
I would choose Gerrard (as atleti rolls her eyes) because of leadership qualities and he's one of (if not the) best all-around players in the world. I would have to say my second choice would be John Terry for again, the leadership qualities, plus it's a nice luxury to have a central defender that can actually score a few goals.
Bobby – I would go for Peter Cech.
Thierry Henry - Where do you get CHAMPIONS LEAGUE in CANADA these days? TSN only shows CURLING... and we have no ESPN...
Bobby – I had the choice of Liverpool – Barcelona (RDS – the French language TSN) and Valencia – Inter on TLN. RDS was 15 minutes late in joining the game because of Canada Games curling. I switched back and forward during the first half then opted for Liverpool – Barcelona in the second half. My Dad called at half time (he has Shaw Cable) to say that he had found the Liverpool game with English commentary on channel 1 – no idea how that happened. Tomorrow I am hoping for a choice between Real Madrid/Bayern Munich and Milan/Celtic.
Gongatore - Now that Liverpool manhandled Barca out of the CL and rightfully advanced, who would you look FR (will he stay?) to buy for next season? Barca needs to regroup in order to compete next year. They will be very lucky to win La Liga at this juncture.
Bobby – FR may well move. There have been comments made about how he has strong man-management skills but tactically he is not top drawer. Before Barcelona decides who to buy they will first have to decide who to sell and no doubt the Ronaldinho to Milan stories will surface again. As I said earlier I can’t see Eto’o leaving and I would say the same about Messi. Ronaldinho might turn out to be more expendable than it might appear. I might come down to how quickly Giovanni dos Santos is maturing.
