Let's take a look at the statistics before we look in detail at the last five teams in this seasons upcoming Premiership. The chances are that at least two of the three promoted teams and the pair that finished just above relegation will be dropping down to the Championship come next May. In the last 13 seasons, at least two teams from that combination have been relegated, and in all 26 teams out of the 40 that have been demoted have come from the aforementioned grouping.

To narrow it down even more the chances of all three promoted clubs surviving is not good. Only the graduating class of 2000/01 (Blackburn, Bolton and Fulham) has managed to survive intact. Conversely only once have all three promoted teams immediately dropped back down – that was in 1997/98 with Barnsley, Bolton, and Crystal Palace.

History shows that come May 2007 the most likely relegation permutation will be one from Aston Villa or Portsmouth; one from Reading, Sheffield United or Watford; and one other side that finished between 11^th and 15^th last season. That has been the combination 6 out of 13 seasons.

Based of past performances of teams promoted by way of the play-offs Watford has the most to fear. Only 5 teams out of 13 have survived their first season in the Premiership after winning the play-offs. However, Reading should also be concerned because the record of the lower division winners is not that much better – 6 times out of 13, the champion has become a chump within 12 months. The best survival rate is by the previous year’s runner up – only 4 times out of 12 (one year the runner up did not receive automatic promotion) has relegation followed. A good omen for Sheffield United.

Last season Aston Villa slumped to 42 points their worst ever Premiership points total although they did finish 8 points ahead of the last relegated team. (In 1994/95 they finished with four more points although four more games were played that year and Villa only finished the year three points ahead of Crystal Palace who were relegated.) David O’Leary left by “mutual agreement” during the summer to finally end what was an inevitable parting of the ways.

The appointment of Martin O’Neill has set off a state of euphoria amongst the Villa faithful. However, until the ownership situation is sorted out and money is available to strengthen the squad any improvement will be limited. O’Neill has never job-hopped and with five years each at Wycombe, Leicester and Celtic the Villa fans will settle for steady improvement over a quick fix option.

Portsmouth is a side that has already sorted out it’s ownership over the summer but even with Harry Rednapp back as manager it looks to be another tough grind ahead for Pompey. The revolving managerial door has seen players arrive and leave by the dozen over the last twenty-four months. Ten players have left during the summer while Glen Johnson on loan from Chelsea and David Thompson signed as a free agent has arrived. Rednapp is sure to make more signings in the next ten days.

One of the most questions is “who can do a Wigan or West Ham this season?” It might be Reading. In Steve Coppell Reading has experience of managing in the Premiership (albeit with relegated Crystal Palace), a hard working squad and a management team that is unwilling to throw money around. The Reading investments (Sam Sodie and Seol Ki Hyeon) have so far been limited although a centre back continues to be a priority. However, it might be Reading’s ability to score goals that sees them survive in the Premiership. 

Controversy and Neil Warnock go together like a rash and …poison ivy. If Warnock goes more than five games without hitting the headlines it will be a major shock. On the transfer front, the major acquisition has been defender Claude Davis from Preston although he is likely to miss the first part of the season through injury. Other arrivals include Mikele Leigertwood (Crystal Palace), Li Tie (from Everton) and David Sommeil (Manchester City).

Without any doubt, Watford was the surprise package of last season in the Championship. Tipped as relegation fodder the Hornets stunned the pundits and gained promotion after comfortably beating Crystal Palace and Leeds United in the play-offs. Manager Adrian Boothroyd was very much the flavour of the month come the end of last season but it will be interesting to see how long that lasts as Watford bring their “direct approach” to the Premiership.

Over the weekend, Danny Shittu opted for a shot at the premiership with Watford in preference to joining West Brom. Boothroyd has also added experience in the form of Damien Francis (Wigan) and Chris Powell (Charlton).