Here is the original synopsis and predictions for 2007/08 revisited with the addition of the final finishes, the highs and the lows and a couple of semi interesting statistics. So here is an opportunity to share my gaffs and a couple of thoughts that were reasonably close. And before some of you laugh too hard I will be linking back to the original comments and predictions that were posted back in August 2007 once the Whoops signal stops appearing.
Arsenal
Synopsis – If Arsenal is going to better last season’s record then there are two areas ripe for improvement. The first is their record against lower half opposition – last season Arsenal only won half of these games. The other is to get their noses in front. Last season Arsenal gave up the first goal in twenty Premiership games and although they collected 22 points in these matches (more than any other club) a repeat performance would nix any chance they might have of pushing the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United.
Arsenal needs to improve defensively – particularly on cross balls – and the wide midfield players (Rosicky, Hleb and possibly Eboue) need to chip in with goals. Gunner fans will be looking for Robin Van Persie to establish himself as a top rate striker while new arrival Eduardo Da Silva (work permit granted) needs to show that he can replicate his Dynamo Zagreb form at a higher level.
The departure of Thierry Henry has set off a wave of “Arsenal-in-decline” stories – don’t be surprised if his departure has the reverse effect.
Season’s narrative – Can Arsenal prosper without Thierry Henry?
Prediction–3rd. Actual–3rd. High – 1st Low – 7th
Stat Facts – An improvement of 15 points from last season (5 at home, 10 away) and the highest ever total points recorded by a team finishing 3rd in the Premiership.
Bolton
Synopsis – Although Sam Allardyce resigned before the end of last season this really is the start of the post big-Sam era. His replacement Sammy Lee has to prove that he can successfully move from his coaching position to the number one job – something that others have failed to accomplish at other clubs.
At first blush Lee appears to be mimicking the eclectic mix that was so successful under Allardyce. Arrivals from Europe (Cid, Dzemalli and Harsanyi), a veteran English midfielder written off by others (McCann), an underachieving defender (Samuel) and a bustling hard-working striker who to date has failed to make his mark in the Premiership (Helguson). Toss in a loan deal for Christian Wilhelmsson and you have very much the same recipe albeit with a different cook.
Bolton never dropped lower than 8th all last season in the Premiership - a repeat would be a remarkable achievement.
Season’s narrative – Can Little Sam make Bolton fans forget Big Sam?
Prediction – 15th Actual – 16th High – 13th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Bolton experienced the largest loss in points season over season – 20 fewer than in 2006/07. An unbeaten run of five matches at season’s end that earned Bolton eleven points brought salvation. To generate the points Bolton scored only six goals but conceded only two – just like old times at the Reebok.
Middlesbrough
Synopsis – In the last five seasons Boro has been as high as 7th and as low as 14th. Based on this summer’s moves the team is more likely to finish closer to 14th than 7th.
For all the abuse that is heaped on him Mark Viduka has been a remarkably consistent scorer since he arrived in English football from Celtic in 2000. He has average better than two goals every five game while with Leeds and Boro and that sort of rate is not going to be easy to replace.
Based on past performances Jeremie Aliadiere doesn’t look like an adequate replacement – even though Gareth Southgate has apparently been impressed by the Frenchman’s hunger. Tuncay Sanli is an interesting addition but he would not be the first striker to find the non-stop pace of the Premiership difficult to adapt to.
The scoring load will probably fall on the shoulders of the often transfer-rumored Yakubu Ayegbeni. So far Boro has denied that they are willing to allow him to leave should another club come in with a bid. Boro supporters should hope that the Nigerian striker stays put because without him Middlesbrough might be fighting relegation. With Yakubu a reasonably comfortable lower mid-table position is probably in the cards.
Season’s narrative – Can Boro breakout of mid-table mediocrity?
Prediction – 13th Actual – 13th High – 10th Low - 18th
Stat Facts – Not a head for heights? Boro spent one week in the top ten and only four weeks the season before. Middlesbrough finished the season with two consecutive wins – something they only accomplished one other time during the season – in December they beat Arsenal and Derby County.
Fulham
Synopsis – Lawrie Sanchez has spent a good part of the summer spending money. However, Sanchez may have added to the squad depth but he may not have significantly improved the starting eleven.
Fulham start their season at the Emirates Stadium against Arsenal and a win will equal their away record over the last two seasons. Not hard when the last two seasons have only brought about a win in each. On the road last season Fulham conceded more away goals (42) than any other Premiership club and finished the 2007 season with the longest current run of matches without scoring more than a single goal in a Premiership game – 12.
They also own the current longest sequence since winning by more than a single goal. Fifty Premiership games have come and gone since a 6-1 win over West Brom in February 2006.
Season’s narrative – Will the money spent turnout to be well spent?
Prediction – 18th Actual – 17th High – 9th Low – 19th
Stat Facts – Fulham threw away 27 points from winning positions this season. However, they did finish the season with four wins in their last five matches. The four wins accounted for half of the three-pointers they collected all season. They also finished with three consecutive away wins. Prior to that they had no away wins in 16 games and had only won twice away from home in the last two seasons.
Birmingham
Synopsis – There are very few holdovers from the side that was relegated at the end of the 2006 season. Lat summer Steve Bruce cleaned house and it led to promotion. Twelve months on and has been busy once more. In midfield Fabrice Muamba is now a permanent fixture after spending last season at St. Andrews on loan from Arsenal. He’s joined in midfield by French international Olivier Kapo (5th team since 2004). Gary McSheffrey proved to be a shrewd acquisition from Coventry City in August 2006 and he could be set to make an impression in the Premiership.
Up front Gary O’Connor will be looked to for goals after signing from Lokomotiv Moscow although Nicolas Bendtner (returned to Arsenal after a loan spell) will be missed. Birmingham conceded the second fewest goals in the Championship last season but Bruce has given himself some new options. Only Bruno N’Gotty has left while Ridgewell, Queudrue, Parnaby and Brazilian Schmitz (presently carrying an injury) have been added. Ghanaian World Cup goalkeeper Richard Kingson has signed although it is not clear whether Steve Bruce sees him as a replacement or back up for Colin Doyle.
Casting a potential shadow over the club is the ownership ambition of Hong Kong businessman Carson Yeung. Yeung has already bought 30% of the club and has plans to acquire the remaining shares. Full control for Yeung combined with a poor start and Birmingham may become the Hearts of the EPL.
Season’s narrative – Has Steve Bruce learned lessons from Birmingham’s relegation in 2006?
Prediction – 17th Actual – 19th High – 11th Low – 19th
Stat Facts – If half time results had held Birmingham would have finished in a comfortable 10th position. Only Derby County finished with fewer away points while the Birmingham defense only kept three clean sheets all season – a record shared with Derby County.
Liverpool
Synopsis – Last season’s challenge for the league was almost over before it began as Liverpool faltered out of the gate. That, combined with poor away form that brought only six wins away from Anfield negated an excellent home record. If Liverpool is to challenge for the league title then a strong start is mandatory.
Based on the moves that Rafa Benitez has made this summer he must be happy with his defense. Torres, Babel, Benayoun and Voronin have all been brought to Anfield to either score or create goals. Lucas Leiva arrives with a great reputation although he will have a difficult time breaking into the Liverpool midfield.
With Fernando Torres carrying the mantle of the Premiership’s most expensive summer signing most of the spotlight will be on the Spaniard. Views on the striker are polarized – the naysayers point to his average of around two goals every five games for Atletico Madrid. His supporters are quick to indicate that he is only 23-years-old and his Atletico strike rate is impressive given the club’s overall goal tally.
Liverpool finished 21 points behind the champions Manchester United last season and it will need a Herculean effort to close that gap.
Season’s narrative – Can Fernando Torres deliver the goals that Liverpool need?
Prediction – 4th Actual – 4th High – 1st Low – 9th
Stat Facts – Liverpool tied with Blackburn Rovers and Tottenham Hotspur for the most draws – 13. Only Manchester United scored more home goals than Liverpool (47 to 43). Ironically Liverpool gained four fewer points at home this season compared with last campaign although away points went from 22 to 34.
Fernando Torres became the first Liverpool player to score 20 Premiership goals since Robbie Fowler over a decade ago. What’s more of his 24 markers only one came from a set-piece. No other player scored more Premiership goals this season from open play.
Reading
Synopsis – Last summer critics were aghast when manager Steve Coppell decided to keep faith with the players that had secured promotion for Reading. When the Premiership kicked off last season not one Reading player had top flight experience in England.
However, Coppell’s gut instinct was spot on and Reading cruised through their first ever season in the Premiership. Once again, manager Steve Coppell appears to be largely content with his Reading squad.
Full back Emerse Fae was signed late last week from relegated side Nantes for a record club fee and joins another French defender Kalifa Cisse signed from Portuguese club Boavista. Leaving the Madjeski Stadium are little used full back Greg Halford (only signed from Colchester in January but sold on to Sunderland at a $2M+ profit) and influential midfielder Steve Sidwell (Chelsea on a Bosman transfer). The question of how and who will replace Sidwell (former Arsenal player) is still to be answered.
Last season Kevin Doyle carried much of scoring load with 13 league goals and although no other Reading player hit double figures 13 other players did chip in with goals through the Premiership season. Leroy Lita enjoyed a good run of scoring with six of his seven goals coming during and just after the Xmas period. Fellow striker Dave Kitson only managed two goals although he missed almost six months of the season after being injured on the opening day of last season.
Season’s narrative – Can Reading avoid the second-season jinx?
Prediction – 11th Actual – 18th High – 7th Low – 18th
Stat Facts – Reading only picked two points after being in a losing position – tied with Everton. The bottom fell out of Reading’s season both home and away. Compared to last season they collected 9 fewer points at home and 10 fewer away from home. The swing in goal difference – from +5 a year ago to -25 this May.
Blackburn
Synopsis – If Blackburn can hold on to the likes of Benni McCarthy and Morten Gant Pederson by the time the transfer closes then the pre-season can be regarded as a success. The form of McCarthy and Pederson last season was key contributors to a midway league finish and an FA Cup run that finished with an extra time semi final loss to Chelsea. Given the injuries to a number of key players last season it was a remarkable achievement by Mark Hughes’ side.
The arrival of goalkeeper Gunnar Nielsen may be more about Blackburn planning for a time when Brad Friedel will no longer be patrolling the penalty area while Maceo Rigters joins the club on the back of a series of great performances at this summers UEFA under-21 Championship.
Roque Santa Cruz arrives at Ewood Park with a great reputation but one that is not supported by the stats. A goal every five games for Bayern Munich is a disappointing return for a player who appears to have all the right tools. A resurrection at Ewood Park or a stop on the way to lower level obscurity?
Doubtless Blackburn will be as feisty as last season although a reduction in the number of penalties conceded (11) and red cards received (5) might help them.
Season’s narrative – Can Benni McCarthy maintain his spectacular form of last season?
Prediction – 9th
Actual – 7th High – 3rd Low – 10th
Stat Facts – Blackburn fought back from losing positions to pick up an additional 20 points – only Arsenal with 21 points was better. Blackburn only dropped six points (3 draws) at home to bottom half of the table teams.
West Ham United
Synopsis – A good number of players have come and gone since last season’s great escape but most of the attention this summer has been on Carlos Tevez. Now that Tevez has finally left West Ham fans can now focus their attention on the new season.
Manager Alan Curbishley has opted to strengthen the midfield and attack while keeping largely keeping faith with the defenders. Scott Parker will be reunited with his old Charlton boss and Freddie Ljunberg can still contribute goals if he can stay fit. However, French midfielder Julien Faubert will have to wait another six months at least before seeing Premiership action after rupturing an Achilles tendon in a warm up match.
The loss of striker Dean Ashton for almost all of last season to injury was a devastating blow to West Ham and hopes are high that Ashton’s injury woes are a thing of the past. He scored against his former club Norwich in a friendly match last week. A partnership with the fleet-footed Craig Bellamy might be a source of much needed goals for the Hammers.
Season’s narrative – Can West Ham bounce back from a traumatic 2006/07 season?
Prediction – 14th
Actual – 10th High – 5th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – In total West Ham spent 24 weeks and 18 out of the last 19 weeks in 10th spot. West Ham only won two consecutive games once this season – in September 3-0 wins over Reading and Middlesbrough.
Sunderland
Synopsis – Roy Keane was the story of last season’s Coca cola Championship and is likely to be one of the stories of this season’s Premiership. When he arrived a drop into League One looked to be a more realistic prospect than promotion back to the Premiership. But Keane set about the task of reinvigorating one of the great teams of years past.
Over twenty players were signed or moved on as Sunderland moved from 23rd spot to league champions. Keane has also endeavored to change the club culture as he insisted on pictures and mementos of past triumphs be displaced around the stadium and kyboshed the idea of the club publicly “celebrating” the promotion.
With only two players shipping out so far it looks as if Keane is intent on improving the depth of his player pool while focusing on younger players who should, in theory, still have room to improve.
Kieron Richardson should get a chance to nail down a consistent starting position after only spot duty with Manchester United. Michael Chopra returns to the North-East only twelve months after leaving Newcastle for Cardiff City. Chopra had been unable to break into the Newcastle starting line-up but 22 goals for Cardiff in the Championship last season had many questioning Newcastle’s decision to give up on the 23-year-old.
Centre half Russell Anderson is an intriguing buy for only $2M from Aberdeen. The 28-year-old has up to now played his entire career with Aberdeen and developed into one most consistent players in Scotland. Many believe that if Anderson had opted to move to a bigger club earlier in his career his he would have been capped more than nine times for his country.
Season’s narrative – Shaped by Brian Clough and Sir Alex Ferguson is Roy Keane the next great Premiership manager?
Prediction – 16th Actual – 15th High – 4th Low – 19th
Stat Facts –Sunderland may have been one of six teams that failed to collect 40 points but they still gained more points this season than in their two previous Premiership incarnations combined. Sunderland did however have the longest losing sequence of any Premiership team away from home with 10.
Manchester United
Synopsis – Sir Alex Ferguson has made a career out of proving his critics wrong so it would foolhardy to predict that United will not retain the title won last season. However, the planets really did align for United in 2006/07. Vidic established himself as the type of physical centre back United had been missing since the long ago departure of Jaap Stam; Paul Scholes orchestrated from the midfield rolling back the years as he gathered, prompted and dissected; Ryan Giggs was another who enjoyed an Indian Summer; Cristiano Ronaldo became the best player in the Barclay’s Premiership.
Can it happen again? Owen Hargreaves has been brought in to provide a more solid defensive shield in midfield while Nani and Anderson look to be the heirs to Scholes and Giggs. The “loan” of Carlos Tevez has now been settled and he will add some extra fire power up front - an extremely exciting addition to the Old Trafford staff. On paper United have strengthened the midfield and attack. However, should Gabriel Heinze be granted his wish to move then United’s back four might be a bit more susceptible to an injuries and/or suspensions.
Season’s narrative – How will Sir Alex Ferguson integrate all his attacking options while ensuring that the backdoor remains bolted?
Prediction – 2nd Actual – 1st High – 1st Low – 16th
Stat Facts – United spent 17 weeks in top spot and maintained that position from round 29 onwards. They claimed 52 of a possible 57 points at home dropping to Reading in the first game of the season and losing to Manchester City. United only conceded three goals in the last ten minutes of Premiership games this season – William Gallas (Arsenal 2-2), Matthew Upson (West Ham 2-1 loss) and a penalty from Michael Ballack (Chelsea 2-1) loss.
Everton
Synopsis – One look at the last five seasons should have Everton fans cringing as new season approaches. Each good season has been followed by disappointment and after last season’s sixth place finish a drop is in the cards.
However, if the Toffees can match last season’s performance of not losing more than two consecutive games then things may not turn out so bad. Moyes will also be eyeing the 13 games that finished as draws last season as a possible area for improvement.
With James Vaughn out for an extended period Everton may still make a move for a striker should one become available. The arrival of Steven Pienaar on loan should add more depth and a bit of goal scoring (15 goals in little less than 100 games during his time with Ajax) to the midfield. He will join the likes of Manuel Fernandez, Mikel Arteta and Tim Cahill in a midfield that if it is gels could be a stand-out in the league.
David Moyes will probably slot Phil Jagielka (from Sheffield United) into a back four that improved significantly as last season progressed.
Season’s narrative – Will Everton slip again? Prediction – 8th Actual – 5th High – 1st Low – 10th
Stat Facts – Everton only picked up two points over the entire season after being in a losing position but finished their highest ever Premiership points total. In the last four season’s Everton has finished 4th, 11th, 6th and 5th.
Aston Villa
Synopsis – Last season Villa may have finished 11th in the Premiership but they needed a nine-game unbeaten run at the end of the season to avoid a relegation dogfight. Martin O’Neill may achieved his initial objective of making Villa a difficult team to beat (only ten losses in thirty-eight games) but if his side is up the table then a good number of last season’s league high 17 draws need to turn into wins. That means more goals are needed from the strikers and from the midfield. Another ten goals and the defense holding firm could mean a move into the top six.
The jury is still out on John Carew (7 clubs in 9 seasons) but the arrival of Marlon Harewood gives O’Neill another option up front. O’Neill has under whelmed most Villa fans with the signing of Harewood but remember this is the same manager that resurrected the career of Chris Sutton. Gabriel Agbonlahor was a revelation last season but he may find that the second season is harder than the first. Nigel Reo-Coker will replace Gavin McCann and should bring more vigour and pace to the centre of the Villa midfield.
Villa had the sixth best defensive record last season but there is still room for improvement. An injury free season for Martin Laursen (he’s averaged less than 10 games a season since arriving from Milan in the summer of 2004) would certainly help while O’Neill may yet sign another goalkeeper to compete with Thomas Sorenson.
Overall the departures far exceed the arrivals at Villa Park which might lead us to conclude that Martin O’Neill is willing to go with some younger players.
Season’s narrative – With money going unspent will it turn out to be a false economy by Martin O’Neill?
Prediction – 6th Actual – 6th High – 5th Low – 17th
Stat Facts – Villa finished as the Premiership’s third top scorers behind Manchester United and Arsenal with 71 goals scored. Last season they scored 43 times. The extra goals (although they also conceded 10 more) helped them to five more wins than last season although their losses (10) remained the same.
Newcastle
Synopsis – Where do you start when it comes to Newcastle United? An incredibly well-supported club inadequately led over the years by bungling directors and often managers, is as good a place to start as any. But since the end of last season the club has been bought by Mike Ashley (although there is no guarantee that he will be any better than the others who have come before) and Sam Allardyce has taken over the managerial reins. But even then there have been consistent rumours that Allardyce would not have been the new owner’s pick had he been able to start with a clean slate.
As it is Allardyce has indicated that he is still in the market for some experienced players but even without any additional moves the spine of this team looks much stronger. New arrivals Czech defender David Rozehnal and Brazilian Cacapa will probably be the first choice centre back pairing while Joey Barton will become the fulcrum of the midfield. Up front Viduka and Smith (reunited after playing together at Leeds) will provide some added presence to a front line that was on the small side last season. Martins and Owen (depending on the combination) should benefit from the addition of Viduka and Smith.
Increased goal production is a priority for a team that was shut-out 17 times last season, and 16 times the season before.
Season’s narrative – Can Sam Allardyce bring real hope and progress to the long suffering Newcastle faithful?
Prediction – 10th Actual – 12th High – 1st Low – 14th
Stat Facts – In 2006/07 Newcastle enjoyed the 7th best record against teams in the top ten. This season they collected only 10 points from top half teams. But Newcastle still finished with the same number of points as last season (43) and improved their overall standing by one place.
Derby
Synopsis – Wining the Premiership play off is always a cause for great celebration but it soon dissipates as the challenge of staying in the top league sinks in. Manager Billy Davies has some good young players in the squad but overall it looks awfully like a squad built to do well in the Championship rather than the Premiership.
Robert Earnshaw (Derby’s record signing) will have another chance (he was with West Brom from 2004 to 2006) to show that can score goals regularly in the Premiership (to date 12 goals in 43 appearances) as he has done in the Championship (19 last season in an injury affected season). Steve Howard (16 goals) will likely team up with Earnshaw in attack.
Centre back Claude Davis who was relegated with Sheffield United last season is another player to be given a chance to prove his worth in the top flight.
Season’s narrative – How many times will Derby be described as gallant losers?
Prediction – 19th Actual – 20th High – 7th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Derby County now owns almost every Premiership record for futility.
Chelsea
Synopsis – Peace has broken out at Stamford Bridge. The enemy, for the moment at least, is the other nineteen teams of the Barclay’s Premiership and on paper this is the strongest squad that Mourinho has had since his arrival in the summer of 2004.
If Petr Cech can avoid injury it will only add to a defense that led the Premiership with 22 clean sheets. The on-going right back problem may remain although rumours persist that Sevilla’s Daniel Alves is on his way to Stamford Bridge. A work permit has been granted for Alex so the last season’s centre back crisis is less likely to reoccur - Tal Ben Haim as a squad player will also help.
That will allow Michael Essien to play is his more natural position in midfield with all the resulting benefits. The talk is a return to a 4-3-3 formation and if Mourinho decides to go that route then it is difficult to see how Michael Ballack and Andriy Shevchenko will fit in - essentially the same question as last year at this time.
Malouda was France’s player of the year and he carries a scoring threat. His work rate plus an ability to get past players makes him a great addition to the Chelsea squad. Given that Chelsea’s goal production dropped by 10 goals last season, more goals will be one of the critical factors if Chelsea is to make it a third Premiership title in four seasons.
Season’s narrative – Can Chelsea maintain focus and stop the in-fighting and strength sapping controversy?
Prediction - Champions Actual – 2nd High – 1st Low – 7th
Stat Facts – Chelsea only spent one week in first place – that came in round 4. Chelsea remains unbeaten at home for another season and collected exactly the same number of points as in 2006/07 – 43 points. Contrast these totals with the 55 points and 47 points they gained at home when winning the league in 2006 and 2005 and ironically you can see where Chelsea needs to improve. Chelsea’s impressive away form continued this season – 42 points from a possible 57 which is up two from the previous season.
Tottenham Hotspur
Synopsis – Martin Jol has been one of the busier managers this summer with another raft of new signings. Spurs’ start last season was woeful and they must find a way to integrate their new signings quickly if the hope to improve on their 5th place finish of the last two seasons.
When the team began to click last season goals were not a problem. Unfortunately as quick as Spurs could score them they let goals in as well. In all Premiership games involving Spurs produced 111 goals – more than any other Premiership team – but Spurs finished with a goal difference of only +3.
The return of a fully fit Ledley King will help plug the holes at the back and it is doubtful that England keeper Paul Robinson can produce back-to-back mediocre seasons. Younes Kaboul arrives with glowing recommendations. Youngster Gareth Bale (watch out for his free kicks) arrives from Southampton and is expected to solve the ongoing left back problem at White Hart Lane. However, there doesn’t appear to be a ready made solution at hand on the left side of midfield.
With a price tag of $35M the expectations for Darren Bent are justifiably high and many will be watching to see how Jol goes about fitting the former Charlton player into a strike force that already has Berbatov, Robbie Keane and Jermain Defoe pushing for a spot.
Season’s narrative – Can Spurs spending finally deliver some silverware as well as entertainment?
Prediction – 5th Actual – 11th High – 9th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Spurs set a record for points lost from a winning position – 33 over the season. They also gained 14 fewer points than they did twelve months ago and that means they have slipped 19 points from two seasons ago. This season saw Spurs participate in another galaxy of goals – this time their 38 games produced 127 (66-61) goals up from 111 (57-54) the season before.
Portsmouth
Synopsis - Pompey was the moved improved team last season so expectations have grown since the club just avoided relegation at the end of the 2006 season. Portsmouth’s improvement was almost exclusively on account of their form at Fratton Park. Sixteen more points were secured at home last season over the previous season and only the top four lost fewer home matches. Only three teams - Bolton, Charlton and Chelsea – left Fratton Park with full points. Harry Rednapp will focus on significantly improving Pompey’s away form which was poor last season - three wins and only 16 points was a poor return.
Pompey appears to have strengthened throughout their line up. Sylvain Distin is a good addition to the defense – particularly if Sol Campbell should up and leave – while Sulley Muntari and Arnold Mvuemba will join the likes of Gary O’Neil and Matthew Taylor in a workman like but effective midfield.
Although Kanu’s future at Fratton Park is still undecided the arrival of David Nugent and Nigerian John Utaka should add to Pompey’s goal scoring threat. These two could be become very important players at Portsmouth.
However, the signing of Hermann Hreidarsson should be enough to sober up any Pompey fans dreaming of 2008 glory. Since arriving in England in 1997 Hreidarsson has played for Crystal Palace, Brentford, Wimbledon, Ipswich and Charlton. Only Brentford escaped relegation while the Icelandic international was on the books.
Season’s narrative – Can Portsmouth become road warriors?
Prediction – 7th Actual – 8th High – 4th Low – 15th
Stat Facts – Portsmouth had the most consecutive wins away from home this season - 6. When opening the scoring Pompey was the only side with a 100% record 14 out of 14. But they did fail to find the mark 15 times - only Sunderland and Derby were worse. Even so Portsmouth improved on last season’s previous high water mark of a 9th place finish and 54 points with three more points and one place higher.
Manchester City
Synopsis – If City supporters felt as if they spent last season in purgatory, the good news is that miserable situation may get better. The bad news is that it might not get all that much better even though a lot of cash has been splashed this summer.
Sven Goran Eriksson, successful in Sweden, Italy and Portugal, has been throughout his career a counter-attacking coach and so the City Of Manchester Stadium may again be a ground where thrills are administered from a drip. However, given that City only scored ten goals at home all season and set a new top flight record for scoring futility in the process it really can’t get any worse.
Bulgarian Martin Petrov looks to be a good acquisition and Geovanni has been brought in to add some craft in the last third of the field. Since his move to Europe the 27-year-old has done little to fulfill his earlier promise – City might be his last chance. Swiss youngster Gelson Fernandes is another recruit and he will battle for a midfield spot.
Rolando Bianchi was a scoring sensation (18 goals) with Reggina last season but he has little else in his career to substantiate the fee of over $16M that City paid for his services. A few seasons ago when with Lecce Bulgarian Valeri Bozhinov was one of the great young up and coming players. Since then his career has been moving but more sideways than ahead. If the pairing can hit it off then City’s prospects will look a lot rosier. However that is a very big if.
Elano, Javier Garrido and Vedran Corluka were added at one fell swoop last week bringing new signings so far to 8 and not one English player amongst them. With Sylvain Distin off to Portsmouth, Eriksson will likely opt to move Micah Richards to centre back. Eriksson will focus on making his side more difficult to beat but from there on he may run out of ideas – on the field anyway.
Season’s narrative – Is the Manchester City secretarial pool safe?
Prediction – 12th Actual – 9th High – 1st Low – 9th
Stat Facts – Of the top ten teams only Manchester City show up in the bottom half of the “second-half” table. City matched their best ever Premiership placing of ninth and could have improved on that if that had been able to hold on to a modicum of their early season home form. City took a maximum twenty-seven points from their first nine matches at the City of Manchester Stadium but only ten points from their last ten games at home. Even so City finished with a season-to-season improvement of 13 points.
Wigan
Synopsis – Apart from a relegation saving final day of the season win over Sheffield United the latter part of last season is something that Wigan do not want to replicate. Last season Wigan took 18 points from their first 12 games; and 20 points from their other 26 games. They also conceded more goals at home (30) than any other team and suffered more losses at home than any other team in the Premiership – 10. And just for good measure Wigan led the Premiership in the unwanted category of points dropped from winning positions – a massive 26 points.
More than enough for new manager Chris Hutchings to work on you would think. He will be hoping that injury-dogged keeper Chris Kirkland stays. In front of Kirkland the arrival of Titus Bramble and Mario Melchiot is to say the least being met with some raised eyebrows.
Michael Brown brings his unique competitive (I’m being kind) qualities to the JJB along with former WBA midfielder Jason Koumas. Up front Antoine Sibierski is the only addition and it is doubtful that the 33-year-old Frenchman is suddenly going to become a regular goal scorer.
Season’s narrative – Who will replace Chris Hutchings when he is fired in November?
Prediction – 20th Actual – 14th High – 1st Low – 19th
Stat Facts – After spending nine of the first 24 rounds in the relegation zone Wigan “escaped” never to return over the remaining 14 rounds. With Steve Bruce in charge Wigan won eight, lost eight and drew eight.
Actual Prediction Manchester United 1 2 Chelsea 2 1 Arsenal 3 3 Liverpool 4 4 Everton 5 8 Aston Villa 6 6 Blackburn 7 9 Portsmouth 8 7 Manchester City 9 12 West Ham United 10 14 Tottenham Hotspur 11 5 Newcastle 12 10 Middlesbrough 13 13 Wigan 14 20 Sunderland 15 16 Bolton 16 15 Fulham 17 18 Reading 18 11 Birmingham 19 17 Derby 20 19
And finally I took a look back to your comments from August 2007.
From what I can see nobody got the top three correct let alone the top five although there were around ten of you that correctly chose United followed by Chelsea. The relegation predictions came no closer to reality. No one got all three right although there were a solid number of you who targeted Birmingham and Derby County.
For all of you who contributed thank you and a special award to andesras6292 who wrote on August 14, 2007 – “bobby your predictions BLEEP. and anyone who think arsenal is going to finish top 3 are crazy the top 3 are going to be liv'pool chelsea and man utd not arsenal. and liv'pool are going to stink because torres isnt good at all i dont see whjat people see in him he cant even score a one on one. last game he missed world class chances and if he is world class he should have scored he is just a overpaid bad striker and isnt going to be good for liv'pool.”
andesras6292 – where ever you are – congratulations. You my friend, are without a doubt this blog’s version of Derby County 2007/08.
What Derby has to do to ensure the “worst-ever” tag isn’t hung on them.
Three games on Thursday takes a toll so this weekend preview is an abbreviated version.
Premiership – at the top Chelsea goes into the second last week of the Premiership hoping that Manchester United might come a cropper against their recently anointed bogey team West Ham United. On the other hand United are hoping the same thing as Chelsea’s results at Newcastle have been less than sterling over the last few seasons.
West Ham United has beaten Manchester United in their last three encounters. One of the three was the epic last match of the season that saw Carlos Tevez – then in different colours – score the only goal of the game and one that kept the Hammers in the top flight.
Nearly twelve months on West Ham sits comfortably in mid-table – as they have done for a good part of the season – already seven points better off than last season. The defensive statistics show the biggest improvement with 15 less goals conceded than during the 2006/07 season. After an impressive start away from home West Ham’s road form has slumped. The first nine away games brought sixteen points from a possible 27, the latest nine only one win, two draws and four goals scored.
Chelsea is unbeaten in their last nineteen Premiership games and has collected more away points than any other Premiership side – 39. Twenty three of these points have come in the nine away matches.
They face a Newcastle side that is unbeaten in their last seven matches with six of them wins. Newcastle has only lost once to Chelsea on their last five Premiership visits (3 Newcastle wins and the other a draw).
Premiership – at the bottom Anything less than a win for Fulham and they will have to look to Reading and Bolton both losing if they are to retain an interest in Premiership survival going into the final weekend. A draw for Birmingham will guarantee that they go into the final game of the season – albeit on life support.
Birmingham has enjoyed success over Fulham in the Premiership with three wins, five draws and a single loss. The loss came at St Andrews in January 2005. Given their respective home and away records over the second half of the season both sides will be coming into the game with trepidation rather than confidence.
Fulham have only picked up seven points in last 9 home matches (2 wins and 1 draw and 5 goals for) and Birmingham are without an away win since a last minute winner at White Hart Lane on December 2. Since then they have only only picked up two away draws. A small encouragement for the Brummies will be a London record of a win, two draws and a tough opening day loss at Stamford Bridge.
Bolton have bounced back from a 4-0 hammering at the hands of Villa three weeks ago and 3-2 loss to Arsenal the week before with a couple of wins and a draw. Considering they have only scored three points and picked up seven points it is a case of making a little go a long way.
Sunderland are safe and that might just provide Bolton with the edge that they need – with a trip to Stamford Bridge next weekend Bolton will also be hoping that Manchester United sow up the Premiership title this weekend.
With sixty-five goals against Reading’s defense has been a major weakness this season. What’s more it doesn’t help their survival hopes that the goals are no longer going in at the opposite end. Reading is currently on the longest current goalless streak in the Premier League – nothing to cheer about for the last 461 minutes.
Although Reading still has the relative luxury of a last weekend trip to Pride Park they desperately need to get something out of this match against Spurs. Earlier this season Reading blew 2-1, 3-2 and 4-3 leads before losing 6-4 to Spurs.
Andrew Jennings on Peter Hargitay, a "strategic adviser" to England's 2018 World Cup bid.
Simon Kuper sits down to chat with Barcelona coach Frank Rijkaard.
An excellent Monday morning column from Martin Samuel.
Gabriele Marcotti says that 442 is so yesterday and he is not discussing the magazine.
Here is a listing of the January 2008 transfer moves. Hard to find one player who could be regarded as a instant success.
Nigel Reed says that Laurent Robert “has to recapture the desire, the passion and the hunger that distinguishes great players from good players.” Recapture? Great player? Laurent Robert? We will see.
This is the same Laurent Robert who Sir Bobby Robson described as "the most difficult player I have ever worked with in my career". Although Robert apparently saw things differently - “I had four years with Newcastle, one in the Champions League, the others in the Uefa Cup as we finished in the top five,” the 32-year-old said. “Some people may speak bad about me, but I am no troublemaker. If you speak with Bobby Robson, I never had a problem with him.” That from the Times in January.
At best we might get a short glimpse of some of his better past performances - a few decent free kicks, a couple of blistering goals – then the problems will surface.
A while ago I put a link up to a website created by Bill Turianski. Bill’s specialty is sports maps with a lot of them focused on soccer. There is some wonderful stuff here.
David James on making it to Wembley for another FA Cup Final.
With the exception of West Ham and Portsmouth who play on Tuesday, the other Premiership sides have five games left. Five teams have already gained more points than they finished last season with.
The most improved at the moment is Manchester City with 49 points to last season's 42. On the other side of the ledger three teams have already guaranteed that even with 15 points still to be played for they will finish with less points than last season.
The worst of the worst - Bolton. Last season they finished with 56 points and so far they have only garnered 26. Down an incredible 30 points so far.
Some months ago there were some who questioned why the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish FAs would not participate in a UK Olympic team given that Blatter had given assurances that it would impact on their current status. Here is the reason that the Celts were right.
The decision to dump the goal line technology initiative seems premature but buried in this story is the go-ahead for national associations to decide whether or not to use video evidence to suspend players that set out to deceive officials. Let’s see which associations make use of this power. On the subject of penalty box/goal line judges - that is one exciting job.
In stadia with artificial surfaces the option of bring in temporary grass is
often put forward as an easy solution. A friend has forwarded this research article that looks at the link between "temporary' grass and ACL
injuries.
Rod Liddle's take on the Hedonist United Christmas Party. And for those with some extra time on your hands FIFA.com has a interactive trivia quiz that can help kill a few hours.
And for those with some extra time on your hands FIFA.com has a interactive trivia quiz that can help kill a few hours.
Roy Collins compares the arrival of David Beckham to that of Wayne Gretzky’s move to the Los Angeles Kings in the late eighties. Given the NHL’s almost joke-like status in the US it is not something that MLS should try hard to emulate.
RINGO - FA Cup Final Trivia. How many times has a non-English team played in the final? How many times has the final been played outside London? On the two occasions Charlton Athletic played in the final, something unusual happened ,what?
Bobby – Seeing that no one esle is playing here goes. 1) Three, Queen’s Park twice and Cardiff who actually won the Cup. 2) Nine times if you don’t include replays. 3) The ball burst in consecutive finals in ’46 and ’47. There was also a Gypsy's Curse involved in the Derby County Final but as far as I know it was not a consecutive season curse!
Henry14 - Q1 what do you make of Fergie's claim that he wants to spends in the midfield and attack, publicly, even if l am not a Man Utd fan l feel he is going to overpay because he is linked with every good finisher. Even if he spend $100m l still feel Hargreaves is not worth $40m and Berbatov is not worth $80m he is at most a $40m player, do you think it was a smart move?
Q2 What do you make of Fergie’s selection because it was awful, I felt it played into West Ham's plan and would not have been at the top of the table with that line up
Q3 l heard Graham Hunter and Ian Wright on talk sport saying Wenger has summoned the board for another meeting on his transfer budget, he claims that , he is not happy with the amount given to him and feels that another season of fighting for fourth Cesc and co might leave, do see Wenger leaving if he does not challenge for trophies next season
Q4 - Who owns Tevez it seems West Ham do not own him, it’s not a loan everything around this guy is mysterious even after the commission, can you clarify the situation.
Bobby – Q1 – And when has it been any different for Manchester United? As far back as I can remember they have been linked with high profile players. Even if Ferguson came out and said that he is not interested in signing anyone this summer no one would belief him. Q2 – I watched the game and in the first half in particular United destroyed West Ham and did everything except score. If it was a one-off result I could understand your point but West Ham did the double over United and Arsenal and didn’t concede a goal in the process. Q3 – No I don’t see Wenger leaving. Q4 – Tevez is owned by MSI and so when he is sold this summer West Ham will realize nothing from any deal.
MeanBLEEPa - The FA Cup and the La Liga race look to be great drama! Any predictions on the latter?
Bigdavedisaster - As the Champions League approaches I can’t help but look at AC Milan and wonder if they should be there? None of the other teams involved in "match fixing" were allowed to compete in Europe, even Lazio with less of a point deduction was kicked out of the lesser UEFA cup. If they cheated enough to have points deducted from there domestic league what does them making the final say about communication between UEFA and domestic leagues in this case Serie A? Did they cheat in the 2005-2006 season or not? It seems as though you here no talk of this incident anymore even though a team that had points deducted for being involved in fixing games is going for the biggest trophy in club football. I’m really not a big conspiracy guy but is this being kept quiet? And yes I am seeing someone on the grassy knoll. I would love to hear your thoughts on this.
I wrote earlier in the season that I thought the Bulgo-irish striker combination would be the ticket for Spurs now my question is, Spurs have shown that they can score with the best of the EPL what do they have to do to defend with them? Is a healthy Ledley King the answer or is the problem bigger than one man?
Bobby – First off none of the other teams had enough points to qualify for Europe after the points deduction – the exception was Milan. Did they cheat? Yes they did. But just like other things in life there are degrees of cheating. For example trying to steal five yards at a throw-in isn’t likely to get you thrown out of European competition. Whether we agree with the punishment or not, the fact is that the Commission that conducted the inquiry in Italy found that although all were guilty there were degrees of cheating involved and the different points deduction reflected that. I don’t think that Milan needed to cheat or affect the results last season in anyway to finish in the top four in Serie A.
A healthy Ledley King will make a big difference and I thought that Zokora was far steadier in the second half of the season than the first. They certainly need a left back and if they managed to sign a naturally left footed player then they might just get away without a left sided midfield player. They also need Paul Robinson to pick his game up.
Rwonfootball - It's relatively easy to pick a "Player of the Year," because it goes to the best player. But who would get an MVP award if one was given?
Bobby – Good question. I think my choice would be Mikel Arteta at Everton.
Venti_Vidi_Vici - At the beginning of the season you had rebutted claims that Chelsea were not adequately staffed at the center back position after the loss of Gallas and Huth, replaced only by the Cannibal. Do you think they will be shopping for central defenders this summer, or stick with who they have?
Bobby – They still had three centre backs but as it turned out Boulahrouz was so brutally bad that he was a liability. However, it wasn’t the defense that let Chelsea down this season it was a lack of goals. They only conceded two more goals than last season while goal production in the Premiership was down by 10 goals at Stamford Bridge and 8 overall. The drop in goals at home led to a reduction of 12 points season-over-season at Stamford Bridge. The issue of centre backs was a red herring. If they do buy someone it might be a full back who can also play centre back. Maybe someone like William Gallas. How many games did Gallas and Huth play this season?
RINGO - Note to the SFL - Dump the Shire and promote Tayport! Although looking at the Tayport website, it does not look like they are still in business.
Bobby – You might have the old website. Here is the link I use. Unfortunately we will have to put this season down as a transition one.
Venti_Vidi_Vici - A couple of very promising youngsters who I don't hear mentioned much, but I think show great promise and may well be on the move this summer. What do you think?
Aston Villa's Gabriel Agbonlahor, 20 years old, played hard all year, managed 9 EPL goals, combines speed, strength and technical ability. Could partner Rooney in 2010.
Giuseppe Rossi, is doing very at Parma scoring better that a goal every two matches in a league which is very challenging for young strikers. I'm sure Sir Alex is very pleased.
Daniel Agger, has relegated veteran Hyypia to the Liverpool bench, and in the UCL semi showed experience far beyond his years. Benitez proved he too can spot talent, even though $10m isn't exactly a steal.
Around Europe looking at the top scorers, in Spain David Villa and Freddie Kanute are having great seasons. In Germany Stuttgart's Mario Gomez (21) and Bayern's Lucas Podolski (21) will be Germany's strikeforce in 2010; the latter may be on the market due to possible restructuring at the club after a quiet season. Also in Holland, Heerenveen's Alfonso Alves has scored over 30 goals.
Bobby – Agbonlahor qualifies to play for Nigeria and Scotland as well as England which is his first choice. He has had a very good season and finished very strongly. I can see John Carew providing a great foil for Agbonlahor. I think Rossi has done more enough to earn a chance at Old Trafford come August. His goal scoring record at Parma has been the difference between a chance of staying in Serie A and being certain to go down. Benitez broke Agger in slowly but he is clearly he is now part of the first choice centre back pairing with the largely underrated Jamie Carragher. Gomez has missed a few games through injury but he scored after coming off the bench against Bochum on Saturday. Alves is beginning to crop up in more transfer stories but I have to admit that I don’t know very much about him.
JKendrick08 - Based on performance in European competitions and overall standard of play throughout this season, how would you rank the top 10 leagues in Europe?
Bobby – The only objective measure is something like the UEFA coefficient rankings and I don’t really know if that accurately describes which might be “best”. I think trying to rank the leagues is a lesson in futility until you can define what you mean by best. Is it the most exciting, the quickest, the most goals, the largest crowds, the greatest level of parity, the best technical players, the greatest level of media hype…the list is endless. Each league has strengths and weaknesses and appeals to individual likes and so it is a very personal. Ultimately it is what ever resonates with each of us and engages us.
Thank you for your continued support of the blog. I will put a UEFA Cup Final discussion blog tomorrow morning.
Another packed weekend of action with league titles decided, the Dutch Cup going to Ajax after an extended penalty shoot out, relegation fights continuing across Europe and Glenn Roeder resigning his position at Newcastle.
Premiership is suing YouTube over copyright infringement.
Meanwhile West Ham may find that they are sued into oblivion.
But Ian Bell contends that the likes of Wigan are missing the point.
On Friday’s FSR we mentioned that FIFA/UEFA might not take of any civil court action by Premiership clubs against West Ham to well.
Amy Lawrence looks at how the Premiership has changed as it reaches 1,000 games. Based on 380 games being played each year I can't work out where the number 1,000 comes into it. On the other hand one of the responses that lists the Premiership nightmare eleven is fun to consider. Who would be in your nightmare eleven for the 2006/07 season and you might also want to select a manager?
Philip Cornwall looks at the value of the Premiership at birth.
Patrick Barclay looks at Manchester United on what turned out to be the eve of their ninth Premiership title.
Guy Hodgson’s review of the City – United derby is worth reading for the first three paragraphs alone.
And remember to nominate your dogs and stars from this week’s televised games.
The FA Cup is not just one of the most renowned sporting trophies in the world but also of the most copied in terms of format. Since the first tournament in 1871-72 the knock out format has become one of the most recognized systems for deciding sporting champions. However, the competition did not get off to the most auBLEEPious of starts. In the book “The FA Cup The Complete Story” by Guy Lloyd and Nick Holt the first competition is described as a shambles. There were numerous walkovers with Scottish club Queen’s Park making it all the way to the semi final without kicking a ball. After drawing the semi final 0-0 Queen’s Park had to withdraw as they couldn’t cover the cost of the replay against Wanderers. Wanderers went on to beat Royal Engineers 1-0 in the final.
Other oddities from the first final include:
Players were distinguished by their cap or garters rather than by their jerseys.
Throw-ins were taken one-handed.
The only field markings were the touchlines.
Teams changed ends each time a goal was scored.
Despite the problematic start the FA Cup prospered until the arrival of the Premiership in the early 1990’s. Since then the glamour of the event has been dealt numerous blows, often from the Premiership clubs treating it as an inconvenience – unless of course they had nothing better to play for!
However, anyone who saw last seasons FA Cup final between Liverpool and West Ham United can vouch for the fact that there is life in the old competition yet - and not only in the late stages of the competition. It is the magnitude of the competition and the “David vs. Goliath” contests that the random draw routinely throws-up that is the real magic.
You can read more about Jarrow – founded 1987 – at their website highlighted above.
Billingham Synthonia has a more extensive history having been formed in 1923 but I could not find a dedicated website. According to a wiki entry - “Synthonia have at least two unique records, the only Football Club in Great Britain named after an agricultural fertilizer and the only Northern League side to play an entire season without conceding a home goal. Connected with ICI Billingham until 1994 when the ground was sold to new owners, the club shortened its name from Synthetic Ammonia, one of ICI’s main products. Synthonia’s second distinction came in the 1950-51 season when they played 13 home league games, winning 12 and drawing one, with a goal tally of 44 for and none against. This was achieved with Goalkeeper Harry Armstrong saving a last minute penalty in the final game of the season.”
Apparently the great Brian Clough was a former player in the 1950’s.
Both clubs play in the Arngrove Northern League Division 1 which is rated step 5/6 in the English pyramid system. The Northern League is touted as the second oldest football league in the world having been formed in 1889.
I also discovered that the company that sponsors the league – the Albany Group – is owned by none other than Brooks Mileson the owner of Gretna. Mileson has guaranteed sponsorship of the league through his lifetime and through his sons’ lifetime by way of a trust.
If anyone can shed anymore light on the two teams it would be appreciated.
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites.
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