The Observer looks back to some Premiership predictions from August of last year. Next Monday I will repost the predictions article that was posted nine months ago. This gives you a week to finetune your excuses and for some of you to complete the hole that you should be hiding in.
The latest on Marvin Andrews the Trinidad and Tobago defender who stunned doctors two years by playing on when the professionals felt it was impossible.
Twenty-five years on Tom English looks back on Sir Alex Ferguson’s first European trophy.
The other half of Avram Grant (so to speak) and a bit more.
Simon Kuper on the terrorism threat that hangs over this summer’s European Championships.
A small piece on Manchester United’s financial situation that I have not seen (up to Saturday evening) any place else.
Germaine Greer says that Football counts as culture just as much as opera does.
And what's more we have more divas.
CONCACAF 2010 World Cup qualifying second leg results.
A former director of Norwegian club Lyn has been found guilty of fraud in dealings with John Obi Mikel.
Michael Henderson provides a dissenting opinion on the “old pros” excuses for dissent.
Alan Pardew admits that his transfer moves have backfired.
For this weekend preview it was a toss-up between the Old Firm derby and the Merseyside derby and the coin landed on an edge.
Rangers vs. Celtic
This will be the 286th Old Firm league derby. Rangers have 111 wins, Celtic 92 wins and there have been 82 draws.
This season Rangers currently lead Celtic by three points with a game less played and five games remaining until the league splits. Even so, these two have to play each other another three times before the season wraps up and it has been five months since they last faced off – an eternity in Glasgow.
Rangers supporters have been chomping at the bit wanting an opportunity to extend a run that has seen their team win 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0 since the return of Walter Smith in January 2007. For Celtic fans it is the polar opposite.
When you add a draw in December 2006 it adds up to the worst run for Celtic in SPL Old Firm games since 1995-97 when they went ten games without a win – losing six and drawing four.
The draw in December 2006 brought an end to a Celtic streak that had brought three wins and a draw with Rangers being held scoreless in all four games.
During that run Alex McLeish stepped aside as Rangers manager, and his replacement fared no better. Not long after McLeish’s demise, Paul Le Guen became the shortest serving manager in Rangers history and the only one to not complete a full season.
And so having been the instrument that led to two managerial terminations at Ibrox, Cetic’s Gordon Strachan now finds himself a potential victim of the same syndrome – being second in a league of two teams.
Strange when you consider that Strachan is still within striking distance of becoming the first Celtic boss since Jock Stein to win three consecutive league titles but a fact nonetheless.
Four pieces of silverware in his first two seasons in charge means nothing in a city where “what have you done lately” means when did you last beat the other lot and if you did, you had better beat them again….and again.
What is more with defeats in the Champions League and the Scottish Cup there is nothing for Celtic to fall back on except the SPL.
The phenomena of Old Firm managers going head-to-head with only one left standing is not new. Jock Stein brought an end to Scot Symon’s thirteen year stint at Ibrox in 1967. Symon’s years in charge had brought Rangers fifteen trophies and they had twice made it to the final of European Cup Winners Cup Final.
Even the great Jock Stein was pushed aside in 1978 after Jock Wallace’s Rangers gained the upper hand although Wallace unexpectedly bolted for Leicester around the same time. Graeme Souness saw off former Lisbon Lions Billy McNeill and Davie Hay between 1986 and 1991 while his successor Walter Smith was the principal reason for the demise of Liam Brady, Lou Macari and Tommy Burns.
Smith came a cropper as Wim Jansen spent his one season at Parkhead breaking Rangers run of nine consecutive league titles. BLEEP Advocaat enjoyed initial success at the expense of Josef Venglos, John Barnes and Kenny Dalglish until Martin O’Neill came along to push the Dutchman over the edge in 2001.
Liverpool vs. Everton
After last weekend’s controversy at Old Trafford perhaps the most important starter will be referee Howard Webb. (In his 30 games in charge this season Webb has sent off only one player and issued 100 yellow cards).
With seven games left Liverpool leads Everton by two points and are hoping to complete a league double over Everton. The comparable match last season finished scoreless as have two others in the last five seasons and Everton have not won at Anfield in their last seven visits.
You have to go back to the last century to find the Toffees last win. It came in 1999 when an early goal from Kevin Campbell decided the game.
Tim Cahill (3), Andy Johnson (2) and Lee Carsley from the present Everton squad have scored against Liverpool but Cahill will miss the game – and possibly the rest of the season after reinjuring a foot.
Everton’s leading scorer is Yakubu Aiyegbeni and he is only one goal short of becoming the first Everton player since Peter Beardsley in 91/92 to score 20 goals. However, Yakubu has failed to find the mark against Liverpool in any of his appearances against them.
On the other side Steven Gerrard, Harry Kewell and Dirk Kuyt have all scored two in the derby games while Peter Crouch has a single. After scoring twice from the penalty spot back in October Dirk Kuyt is trying to become the first Liverpool player since Emile Heskey in 2000-01 to score in both meetings in a season.
A draw or win for Everton would mean the battle for fourth would continue unabated. A victory for Liverpool would open a sizeable five point gap with only six games remaining.
Both sides have to play Arsenal and Birmingham away from home.
Liverpool must also visit Craven Cottage to play Fulham, and finish the season away to Spurs. There are also home games against Blackburn Rovers and Manchester City.
Everton have four home matches against Derby County, Chelsea, Aston Villa and on the final day of the 2008 season Newcastle United.
Some statistics and tidbits gleamed from the Liverpool FC website, Evertonresults.com and various other places. You can find more by clicking on the links.
This will be the 178th Merseyside league derby - Liverpool 66 wins, Everton 56 wins, 55 draws.
League results at Anfield have brought Liverpool 37 wins, Everton 23 wins, and 28 draws.
The last 'derby' hat-trick for Liverpool saw Ian Rush score four in a 5-0 win at Goodison in November 1982, while for the Blues Dixie Dean hit three at Anfield in September 1931 in a 3-1 win.
Should Fernando Torres score he will equal the club record of scoring in six successive top-flight home games. It has been achieved by Fred Pagnam (1919), Roger Hunt (1964), Ian Rush (1983) and Michael Owen (1999).
14 red cards have been issued in the last 17 derbies with seven being brandished in the last six games. (21 have been sent off in the history of the fixture).
Yakubu now has 13 League goals for Everton this season, better than anybody since Andrei Kanchelskis got 16 in 1995/96 and he has 19 in all competitions, last achieved by Tony Cottee in 1993/94.
Yakubu has been substituted in 15 of his 20 starts in the Premier League this season
Eighteen of Torres’ goals have come at Anfield – only two away at Derby and Boro.
This BBC article explains how next year’s European places will be divvied out in England. Gretna hanging onbut the end seems to be near.
The chance to focus on the Scottish game doesn’t come around too often but hard on the heels of Rangers making it to the last eight of the UEFA comes the first major final of the season. Rangers has a chance to lift a cup for the first time in three years while in the case of Dundee United it has been closer to fourteen seasons since they had something to celebrate.
The Ibrox turnaround engineered by Walter Smith since his return to the club last January has been incredible. Inheriting a team from French Coach Paul LeGuen that had lost six of twenty-three league games and been knocked out of the Scottish Cup at the first hurdle, Smith went about restoring some much needed confidence and lost only two leagues (the last two and Celtic had already secured the title) the rest of the season.
A place in this season’s Champions League last sixteen proved to be too much but after dropping to the UEFA Cup Rangers have beaten both Panathinaikos and Werder Bremen and await their fate when the draw is made tomorrow (Friday).
Rangers also lead the SPL by three points and have a game in hand over Celtic. However, of the eleven league games still to play Rangers and Celtic have to face each other three times. Both clubs are still alive in the Scottish Cup and have been kept apart in the semi-final round. But first Rangers must see off Partick Thistle in next Wednesday’s rearranged quarter final match.
Rangers may retain an interest in four competitions but Walter Smith is well aware that the Rangers faithful are unforgiving if success is not delivered in regular doses and Sunday provides an opportunity to make it one down and three to go.
It is somewhat ironic that Rangers opponents are Dundee United – the first team Smith faced on his return (a 5-0 win) and a team where he got his coaching start under the legendary Jim McLean. Smith was on United’s coaching staff when they won their first major trophy in 1980 beating Alex Ferguson’s Aberdeen in the League Cup Final.
It was the first visible crack in the Old Firm’s domination of Scottish football and by season’s end Aberdeen had won the first of three league titles under Fergie and over the next six seasons Aberdeen and United became known as the “New Firm”.
The next eleven seasons would see United make it to nine domestic finals, the UEFA Cup final, as well as winning the Scottish League and coming within a whisker of a place in the 1984 European Cup Final.
But making it to the final of a competition is one thing, winning is something else and over the ten finals United won only two – the aforementioned League Cup win in 1980 and they repeated the year after.
After McLean’s “retirement” from the dugout after 22-years United went through a cavalcade of managers with a Scottish Cup win over Rangers in 1994 the only highlight. After a televised run-in with a BBC reporter in 2000 the McLean-era began to grind to a conclusion although it would take another couple of years before he sold his shareholding to local businessman and United fanatic Eddie Thompson.
Thompson soon showed himself to be a match for McLean in firing managers as he axed five managers in his first six seasons as owner. It has only been since the arrival of Craig Levein in late 2006 that a level of stability and success has returned to Tannadice.
Levein has United third in the league at the moment and they played Celtic to a scoreless draw at Parkhead on Wednesday night.
There is a real sense of optimism around the club that United can at again be a force in Scottish football although the halcyon days enjoyed under McLean are unlikely to return.
But even though some level of success may be in the future for United this might be the last chance that their owner Eddie Thompson will have to see his beloved side lift a Cup. For the man who put his money where his mouth was to the tune of many millions of pounds is battling what looks to be an unwinnable battle with cancer.
Thompson has already put his financial affairs in order with members of his family being appointed to various positions within the club and Levein was appointed to a position on the board of directors a few weeks ago.
United will be taking close to 17,000 to Sunday’s final at Hampden and many will be wearing special tangerine t-shirts to show support for Thompson with proceeds going to fund cancer research.
North American connection - When I first saw Dundee United play in the early sixties they played in various combinations of black and white. So where did their present distinctive tangerine kit come from?
The year after the 1966 World Cup the United Soccer Association (a forerunner to the North American Soccer League) decided to import twelve teams to play during the summer in North America.
Each team played under the moniker of their adopted North American city and Dundee United became the Dallas Tornado.
The Tornado colours were tangerine and the idea to change kit was planted back then. The switch was made in 1969 with the first British showing against Everton in pre-season friendly.(check half way down to see a United as Dallas team photo).
United’s centre half Doug Smith – a player who many considered one of the best players never to be capped by Scotland – made the Second All Star team along with some other memorable names.
Tamerlin - How does the financing of the Champions League and UEFA Cup work? I've heard that the CL pays each club for everything (hotel, travel, etc.), whereas UEFA Cup requires the clubs to pay. Therefore a club needs to get to the Semi-finals in the UEFA Cup to actually make any money.
- Where do you place the ref's call that ejected Shanon Boxx among the worst World Cup calls? The Brazilian fouled her!
Bobby – UEFA controls both competitions and generally owns the media (TV etc) and sponsorship rights. I say generally because my understanding is that the clubs are able to sell the rights to qualifying round games in the Champions League but all rights revert to UEFA once the group stage starts.
The home team gets to keep their gate money but I have no idea who pays for hotel, travel etc. I would be surprised if UEFA paid for hotel, travel etc as it would be easily abused. The prize money is allocated based on qualification for the group stage, points collected in the group stage plus how far the club progresses in the knock out rounds. The prize money is a combination of money from a general rights pool (sponsorship and TV) and money allocated based on the TV money generated domestically and paid out based on how all clubs from that country do. That’s why we get situations where Champions League runner up (or even beaten semi finalist) can be awarded more prize money than the actual winner.
There are also payments made to teams that are knocked out in the three rounds of qualifying. Here is a UEFA article that outlines the process with pay out amounts for 2006/07 for both competitions.
I stand to be corrected but I believe UEFA only sells TV rights from the last eight of the UEFA Cup on and before that the home club owns the rights. Sponsorship is limited compared to the Champions League. Clubs also keep the home gate so I think the stories of having to reach the semis to make money are far-fetched – after all if that was the case why would teams bother competing?
I didn’t watch the WWC so I can’t comment on the referee’s decision.
Yohann - Are you confident about Chelsea (in Champions League)? I feel like the Blues will have trouble finding the net, especially if Drogba isn't on fire like last year... They tied Rosenborg and are in a group that includes Schalke and Valencia, a team that has an extra motivation against Chelsea.
Bobby – I stand by my prediction. There are six games and a home draw against Rosenborg is not the end of the world. Schalke is average at best. Valencia are a good team with solid European credentials.
Ringo - Either Duncan Castles is now part of the inner workings at the Bridge, or he`s auditioning for a job with the Sun.
Bobby – I was a bit cautious on some stuff he wrote earlier as I was thinking the same as you. But based on the stuff he has generated lately and after listening to him on the GU podcast I would say that someone (or a couple of people) are feeding him a lot of inside stuff. Or someone who has now left was feeding him information!
MDMcAuley - Maybe you've been asked this before; but as the wise seer of all things Scottish and most things soccer, do you think Celtic and Rangers would consistently compete and stay clear of relegation if they were in the English Premier League? If so, roughly where would you put them in the table? Is there any serious interest in their managements in joining the EPL for financial reasons?
Bobby – Without a doubt over an extended period they would compete and would both be strong teams. Celtic and Rangers enjoy massive global support and with the money generated from playing in the Premiership they would both comfortably be in top ten after they settled in. The most difficult period would be the first year. Both clubs would jump at the chance to join the Premiership but it will not happen. Not because of UEFA or FIFA but because they would be taking the place of two English teams and you don’t find turkeys voting for Christmas too often.
Just a general comment about a UK side. Anyone who suggests such a possibility has no idea of history, culture and pride. There are more important things than winning. As for the Republic of Ireland taking part as well – a history lesson is badly needed.
Henry14 - q1 What do you make of the Flamster's impact at Arsenal, what have you made of him? l have to say l am changing my opinion q2 You predicted Chelsea as the champs at the end of the season are you ready to throw the towel that they will not retain? q3 Do you see Kaka staying at Milan if they keep not taking anything serious other than with a Champions League athem (sic)? q4 Spurs or Man City who is your pick now for fifth?
Bobby–1. Flamini has played very well and looks to have come of age. 2. No. I don't normally change predictions. 3. I must have missed the press release that said Milan was only taking the Champions League seriously. 4. I picked City to finish 12th and Spurs 5th. Two seasons ago after 7 games City had 11 points and Stuart Pearce was the saviour. They finished 15th. Two seasons on they have two more points and this time SGE is the saviour. The problem with a team having an unexpected good or bad start to the season is that we tend to project the trend as upwards and onwards.
However, there is not a lot of evidence to support that view and over time things average out. Yes, City have recruited some players who have made an initial impact but the rest of the Premiership isn’t sitting around in awe. They are looking at City matches and they are looking at ways to blunt their strengths and to take advantage of their weaknesses.
Craigyf - How long has it been since the top two in Scotland were both managed by Scots?
Bobby – Not very long given that both Smith and Strachan are Scots and with the exception of a brief French interlude it was McLeish and Strachan.
Craigyf - Marcotti on Super Pippo! – Really Gabrielle, how many games of Pippo have you actually watched? Saying that Pippo doesn’t fit in with Milan is akin to saying that Antipasti doesn’t fit in with an Italian meal. The article is basically tosh; Marcotti really doesn’t know what he is talking about. He scores goals for a living and does it with immense passion, obviously a dullard such as Marcotti doesn’t get football. Interesting choice of articles this week, some good and some are just awful, how do you pick them?
Bobby – Did you read the article? How anyone could interpret the article as anything but complimentary to Inzaghi beats me. The articles are chosen based on what I think readers might find interesting, or perhaps a contrary view that is worth considering. Based on your interpretation of Marcotti’s article on Inzaghi I can’t even attempt to guess which ones you think are good and which are awful.
popculturejon - This is a bit off topic Bobby, but stay with me. Would it be possible for a company like Nike to buy a small EPL club (Like Derby for example) before a WC (so 2009). Then sign a lot of American players and an American coach to try to get a squad together that plays every week and trains as a unit over a season? Granted, not all players would have to come from this project team, but it would give the US an advantage as far as team chemistry and EPL experience.
Bobby – Well Spons46 makes a very good and valid point – there are work permit restrictions to overcome. But beyond that you may (or may not) be surprised that such a notion has actually been put into practice a couple of times.
In the late 70s (?), Dynamo Kiev became the defacto Soviet Union national team. The experiment was abandoned after a couple of seasons. The same could be said for a large number of eastern-bloc countries before the Berlin wall came down. The sports ministries often used their power to allocate large numbers of national caliber team players to one or maybe two club teams. The great Hungarian national team of the 50s had a significant number of players from Honved.
However, the most relevant example is much closer to home. A Team America was fielded in the NASL around 1982 or 83 with the same logic as you sugested. I believe they played as Washington (maybe a NASL fan can confirm) and it was a disaster. Canada was ready to undertake the same experiment in Montreal but baulked after the USA plan bombed.
Ulsterson - Last night you talked about Kasper Schmeichel’s youth and experience affecting his performance on crosses and I think you mentioned his height (at 6'0", a good 4 inches shorter than his old man) on Friday. I agree, and there is, in my view, another issue of his game where his stature is also detrimental. This one more directly related to his father. The young Dane mimics a distinctive technique his father was famous for called the "starfish". Just as it sounds, the arms and legs splay out like an open jumping jack to try to make as big a target as possible. Peter used the maneuver if the ball was off the ground and he was too close to the anticipated shot to react, jumping before he had any real idea where the ball would go. It was quite successful for Sr., in part, because of his massive size, but because it required the size of Peter’s XXXL frame and of the risk involved in leaving the feet before the shot I don’t think it is often taught. From what I have seen, Kasper seems to rely on the "starfish" more than he should (it almost seems to be his default save, even when he is too far away from the shot for it to be prudent or even when the ball is on the ground) and his smaller stature leaves too much room for balls to get by. Watch the goals scored on him by Fulham and tell me what you think.
Bobby – Good point. If I remember correctly Schmeichel senior borrowed the move from playing in goal at handball or at least watching the sport. Before I heard that I was in Atlanta for the 1996 Olympics and took in a handball game one day. I was surprised to see (what I thought to be) the goalkeepers pulling off Peter Schmeichel style saves! I guess I got it the wrong way round.
After the Fox Soccer Report tonight I am heading to Toronto to cover the USA vs. Uruguay and Argentina vs. Poland. There won’t be a speakers’ corner response post on Wednesday although I will respond to some questions in the comments section here.
Paul LeGuen’s seven months in charge at Ibrox makes him not only the shortest serving boss of Rangers but only the second to have failed to win a trophy during his tenure. (For trivia buffs the other was the much-maligned Davie White from 1967-69. White had the misfortune to have Jock Stein’s Celtic as the opposition.) LeGuen also leaves the post without a win against Celtic.
It is difficult to comprehend how one of the most highly regarded young managers in Europe could so suddenly become a man with a great future behind him.
Only twenty months ago LeGuen had just led Lyon to a third successive French title on his watch before stunning the football world by resigning. A move to Italy or Spain appeared to be imminent in a matter of days but nothing materialized.
Over the next year LeGuen was rumoured to be ready to sign with a number of European clubs but each time LeGuen had a change of mind. When finally Rangers announced his move to Ibrox to replace Alex McLeish more than a few eyebrows were raised. Even though Rangers and Celtic attract 50,000 plus audiences and enjoy a global base of support the SPL is not normally regarded as a stepping stone to greater things.
Some suggested that LeGuen saw the Rangers position as purely temporary until a big Premiership team – Arsenal was frequently mentioned – came calling. If that is now to materialize LeGuen needs to rebuild his career over the next few seasons as his time at Ibrox will remain a black spot for sometime to come.
Rangers’ SPL form has been abysmal while progress in the UEFA Cup as been the sole source of solace for the Ibrox faithful. The players LeGuen bought have been largely ineffectual, a trait he shares with the man he succeeded Alex McLeish. Both were forced to rake through the bargain bin looking for players that might improve the team’s quality while costing very little.
Neither manager came anyplace close to the extravagant transfer kitty enjoyed – and largely squandered – by BLEEP Advocaat between 1998 and 2001. Few managers can have spent so much money with so little return than the man known as the “Little General.”
Now attention shifts to a replacement. Former Rangers manager and current Walter Smith as well as ex-Ibrox star Terry Butcher are the bookies early favourites. However, don’t be surprised if names like Derby boss Billy Davies and Southampton manager George Burley to surface in the next few days.
henry14 - When l was looking in the group that England is in l have come to terms that Israel can spoil the party and England might be seen scrambling for dear life and now that they are allowed to play in Tel-Aviv, l see them going all the way. They have not lost in 13 internationals and last year they pushed France to the nail. If Croatia can defeat England l see them in hot trouble as they are in a very tricky group and this might be one hell of an upset. Mind you Liverpool were push to a greater extend by a good Maccabi Haifa side so they are a strong side in my opinion. How do you rate the Israelis?
djinima - Bobby, my question for you . . . and this may seem like a dumb one. . . but why is Israel in UEFA? When did they become a part of the body?
Bobby – Initially I discounted Israel, particularly given that they were banned from playing at home. That has now been rescinded. I thought Croatia and Russia would battle it out for second place with England qualifying as group winners. But now I can see how Israel could make it through to the finals. The biggest obstacle that they face is actually winning games and this is a situation where an unbeaten record is actually an impediment. They may be unbeaten in their last 13 qualifying games but seven have been drawn and they have only six wins. In fact if they had traded wins with France or the Republic of Ireland during WC 2006 qualifying instead of drawing, they would have made it to Germany.
Making yourself difficult to beat is one thing, but going out and winning games is something very much different. So although Israel has to receive a lot of respect for coming back seven times during the current unbeaten streak to gain points, they have yet to show that they can beat any of the big countries of Europe.
As for Israel’s place in UEFA - it is politics. Israel has jumped around a number of Federations – including being part of Oceania at one time! Wikipedia has a good rundown of the checkered history.
In the short term it makes it more difficult for Israel to qualify through UEFA but the upside is the standard of Israeli play is going to continue to rise given that the top club teams can also participate in the Uefa Champions League and Cup.
realmadridcffan - Even though it is very early, who do you think has been the biggest surprise and disappointment so far. For my biggest surprise, I would have to say Scotland. Never would I have thought they would win three in a row this early. My biggest disappointment is got to be Spain. They have played brutal thus far. The rate they are playing, they might not even make it to Euro 2008.
Bobby – I think if anyone had said that Scotland would be sitting with a 100% record after three games the barman would have cut them off. But it is early days and the situation could turnaround very quickly – a loss in Kiev against Ukraine, Georgia comes to Hampden in March and defends stubbornly then a trip to Italy and another loss is very possible. Nine points from 3 games in fantastic, but it could easily become ten points from 6 games and third place then becomes a more realistic goal.
I would agree that Spain has to be the biggest disappointment. The only silver lining to their dark cloud is that both their losses have been away from home. But with two losses already they do have their work cut out.
If you look at the UEFA 2006 World Cup qualifying groups, three required the countries to play 12 games (the same as six of the seven Euro qualifying groups), and the other five required 10 games each. Out of the eight WCQ group winners no country lost more than one game and five of them were unbeaten. Poland and Sweden went through as best runners-up after dropping six points each and both finished a massive 9 points ahead of the third place countries. The other countries that went into the WCQ play-offs dropped anywhere between 9 and 12 points.
You can then guess that to make it through Euro 2008 qualifying, countries should be aiming for between 24 and 27 points with it likely closer to 24. That means a country might be able to drop 12 points in 12 games and still make it through as one of the top two finishers. By dropping six points in their first three games Spain can now only afford two more losses or three draws (or a any combination) if they hope to stand a chance of progressing. That makes life very difficult and I think it shows how important a good start is to ultimate success.
AlexMorph - This is a question that has been in my mind for a long time, and I've discussed it with many to no certain conclusion. Why is it that England cannot control the ball AND attack simultaneously? If they go ahead against weak opposition then they do quite fine to shut them down and pass the ball back and forth, but eventually it will break down and the other team will spring on a quick break. England seemingly have no collective conscience as do teams like Argentina, Brazil, Arsenal, Barcelona, Lyon. Even with some of their more creative players (Joe Cole for example) the attack is more of a one-off flare and not a succession of intricate moves and innate understanding. Lyon is still a fluid team despite Houllier, so why can't England be one now that Eriksson is gone?
kirbym - AlexMorph makes a good point. Even England's victories are so often one-offs, saved by a miracle free kick, an own goal, etc., while the pundits say "They haven't quite gotten started yet," etc. They struggle rather than flow. It goes together with a lucklessness that goes back decades, showing up most often against Latin/Mediterranean teams and in penalty shootouts. Tinkering with lineups and formations doesn't go deep enough--it's something fundamental in their approach that's missing. The spirit is always there: They "go down fighting" but they do go down, unable to string together a real attack when needed. I'll also be interested in hearing Bobby's thoughts on this.
CIAO - I too think England has a great pool of players (minus the keepers) to select from. However, I can see two issues: 1. Most British players remain in England and are not exposed to European football or at the international level; and 2. the game is different in the EPL than in any other league and it takes the national team players some adapting for the international level...
I think the Lampard-Gerrard combo has been tested and it failed. Lampard and Gerrard can't seem to catch the same level they perform with their clubs on the national team -so isn't it time to look at other alternatives? Such as implementing either Lennon or SWP to the right wing. I think the national coach needs to consider that SWP should still be in consideration for a spot given that at Chelsea he is fighting for a spot to play with likes of Lampard, Ballack, Makelele, Robben and the list goes on... Hargreaves and/or Parker as the holding midfielders. How about pushing Ashley Cole up to left wing midfield while Joe Cole is out injured... Which leaves a spot behind two strikers for either Lampard or Gerrard -a little friendly competition never hurt anyone. It's time to go back to basics...
To debate this topic properly would take a very long time. For what it is worth I think it is mainly down to technique. I remember a long time ago reading that after some initial success Nick Faldo completely rebuilt his swing because he believed his technique that had brought some success would not stand up to the pressure that he would face if he wanted to be the best in the world. He needed to work on a honing his technique to the stage that when he was under intense pressure his swing would not break down and essentially muscle memory would take over. (I read a not dissimilar piece that suggested that the reason Greg Norman failed so often in the majors was that although he had incredible natural talent his technique was flawed and under pressure this flaw was magnified.)
The point I am trying to make is that British players generally are less technically gifted than players from what we consider to be the top continental countries. They generally fail to perfect things like first touch.
The value British fans place on effort over skill compounds the problem. When was the last time you heard an English fan complain that his club just didn’t have enough good players? It doesn’t happen very often. Normally it is put down to lack of effort and the players just not wanting it enough. I don’t think you can be successful in football without effort and organization but at the top level it is not going to be enough on a regular basis if your players are devoid of some basic skills.
The best book I have read lately on the subject is “The Italian Job” by Gianluca Vialli and Gabrielle Marcotti. The book looks at how the game has developed in Italy and England and looks at the some of the reasons why things are the way that they are. It also challenges some of the conventional wisdom and stereotypes that are trotted out on a regular basis. It includes some great insight from the likes of Mourinho, Ferguson, Capello, Lippi and Wenger.
Venti_vidi_vici - I feel that in group format, the object is to do better than your main rivals. Croatia and Russia are England’s main rivals in the group, and they cannot afford to slip up against either; all three teams expect to qualify. If they must have a no-show, better to do it last Saturday, and then come up with a positive result against Croatia. Basically Wednesday’s match is a good old fashioned 6 pointer.
Also, if Scotland is now seriously thinking about qualifying, their match in Kiev is another 6 pointer, because down the stretch it’ll be a four-way battle for two spots (and they know that there is not room for both of them in the top two). Just like in the domestic leagues, teams have to get results against their main challengers, and equally important, shoot par against the rest.
Although it is so difficult to gain any sort of momentum in these group matches (because of the drawn out schedule), can Scotland carry their high into Kiev and come away with something on Wednesday?
Bobby – Well we will find out in a few hours. The six pointer comment is spot on and it reinforces how important it is to get full points off the lower teams. If you can get full points and your qualifying rivals stumble it places pressure on your rival in the head-to-head encounters forcing them more often than not to push for a win. Perhaps the simple formula is Max points at home + max points versus minnows = Euro 2008 Finals – easily stated but not so easy to achieve!
bigdavedisaster - I am a young man but to me that is the worst loss in the history off modern Irish football. Why is the FAI still backing Staunton? My only hope is that the 3 goal loss to Cyprus....Cyprus!! is rock bottom and we can only move forward from here. I have always thought that Ireland has been able to rise to the challenge when playing the great teams of the world and tends to play down to other "lesser" competition but this is something completely different. It’s an embarrassment plain and simple and I don’t think Staunton is the man to right this ship.
Bobby – I was surprised when the FAI hired Staunton given his lack of managerial experience. It would have made more sense to have Sir Bobby Robson in charge with Staunton as the heir apparent. However, with Sir Bobby’s illness it would have made little difference. You look at the line-up and there were some very good players starting for Ireland so that isn’t an excuse. The game against the Czech Republic today is a must win. Otherwise Ireland will be sitting with 8 or 9 points dropped with only three games gone and they will never catch Germany, the Czech Republic or perhaps even Slovakia.
I think Staunton is done even if Ireland beats the Czechs. It was a boneheaded move by the FAI.
ascoli - You put it well when you point out that England has yet to learn from its lessons. It is a good team with good players, but they all need to just relax and keep perspective. Congratulations on Scotland's big win. I would have loved to have seen that game. Were the ball boys as much a factor as the French Coach claimed?
Bobby – As I watched the game I was concerned that the ball boys were returning the balls too quickly. I read an interesting piece that said that Craig Brown a former Scotland manager had mentioned to Wattie Smith that the “ball boys” at the France – Italy game in Paris in September were considerably older than the ones you would normally see. The point was that France wanted to play a high-tempo game and wanted the ball back in play quickly hence the more mature ball retrievers. If the story is true then Domenech might have a point – even it is one that makes him sound a bit silly. The French had their chances and they didn’t take them. I don’t see how that could be the fault of the ball-boys.
The focus was Euro qualifying this weekend and now we have another batch of game this Wednesday.
Group A I thought Serbia created the better chances and looked much brighter than a Belgian side that lacked pace – particularly in the midfield. A Wednesday tilt against Armenia who nicked a draw off of Finland should mean that Serbia will retain their top spot. Portugal travels to Poland and it is a must win for the Poles given that they have already dropped points at home to rivals Serbia and Finland.
Group B This group provided the shocker of the weekend, Scotland beating World Cup runners-up France. In my opinion the biggest result for Scotland since they went to Wembley and beat the reigning World Champions 3-2 in 1967. I would also say that this is the best result Scotland has ever achieved at Hampden Park.
As a footnote back in 1967 after Scotland beat England some Scottish supporters used the result to claim that it made Scotland World Champions. Some years later that spawned a website that takes a different view of who might be considered the World Champions using a boxing title holder and challenger format rather than the Sepp Blatter World Cup (Jack Warner and Sons. official ticketing agents).
You can check out past winners and I doubt you can guess who the current "alternative" World Champions actually are.
Thierry Henry believes that France will qualify and finish above Scotland – and the odds are very much in his favour. The win is of greater significance to Scotland than it is a blow to France. There is a long way to go but Walter Smith has achieved job 1 which is to make a small county like Scotland, one that can worry the big boys again.
Italy and France are poised to take advantage of Scotland’s very difficult trip to Kiev in two days time. Only two countries have ever beaten Ukraine in Kiev so even a split of the points would be considered a point gained.
Group C Excellent homes win for Greece over Norway and likewise for Turkey away to Hungary. The historic rivals have an opportunity to leapfrog Norway who is not scheduled to play this Wednesday. Turkey is “at home” to Moldova while Greece has a tricky fixture away to Bosnia-Herzegovina. The Bosnians have stumbled badly and largely failed to take advantage of what should have been a relatively easy start against Malta, Hungary and Moldova. A four point return is less than they would have expected.
Group D The worst tip of the weekend – Wales to beat Slovakia. – Oouuch! Wales may not be dead and buried but let us just say that the body is laid out, the top is on and the hammer and nails have been called for. A 5-1 loss at home to Slovakia was their worst result since 1908. They now face a Cypriot side that has lost 6-1 and won 5-2 so who knows what Wednesday’s match might hold.
Talking of dead and buried – Steve Staunton is under heavy attack by the Irish press after a horrible result against a country they had beaten in their last six competitive matches. It is looking bleak for the Irish who now have the most successful all-time European Championship “country” the Czech Republic, arriving next.
Simply put, the Republic of Ireland must win or they will be looking at the monumental task of 24 points from the remaining nine matches to qualify and that, quite frankly, is just not on. Germany is back in business when they travel to play Slovakia. A German win and it will be a sign that the top two are going to runaway with this group.
Group E Here we go again. European Champions in waiting after beating the might of Andorra 5-0 and then winning 1-0 away to Macedonia, now wailing and moaning sounds are coming from England fans after drawing 0-0 at home against a Macedonia side that might even have nicked the three points.
You would have thought that the World Cup performance would have been a lesson – one in a long line of lessons – that a couple of results, particularly against weaker opposition do not a champion make. Can you imagine England’s response if they had beaten San Marino 13-0 as Germany did last month?
Viewing results in some sort of realistic context is not something that comes easily to the English media – or fans for that matter. But if England had returned from Macedonia with a draw and then won at Old Trafford would it have been a disaster? It would not have been the best set of results but it would not have been a disaster either.
The first acid test for Steve McClaren comes when they face a very tough Croatian side in Zagreb. If England does win no doubt the bandwagon will kick into gear again.
Meanwhile two home draws was not the sort of start that Guus Hiddink was looking for and three home points versus Estonia is now a must for Russia.
Group F Spain is another country that has made an inauBLEEPious start with back-to-back away losses to Northern Ireland and Sweden. To compound the problem Spain sits out this time around while Sweden looks to extend their 100% record when they are away to Iceland and Denmark hopes to consolidate their present second place standing against little Liechtenstein. Northern Ireland and Latvia link up in Belfast in a pivotal game.
Group G In group G it looks like a case of perm any two from three with Romania and the Netherlands tied at the top (Romania leads on goal difference) with Bulgaria two points behind but still unbeaten. Romania can watch the others on television as the Netherlands (home to Albania) and Bulgaria (away to Luxembourg) should pocket three points each. Slovenia and Belarus both need a win if they hope to keep within striking distance of the “big three”.
Later in the week I will take a look at the next round of the FA Cup and look at the Premiership so far.
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites.
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