Craigy_f – 1. Who do you rate more highly Best or Ronaldo? 2. What are your first football memories? 3. What moments made you laugh at the weekend – football related of course? 4. Casano’s first of Trezeguet’s second – which was more enjoyable? 5. How do you think that FSC gets it’s team sheets for Serie A games?
Bobby – 1. George Best. 2, Being taken to an amateur international at Dens Park between Scotland and Ireland. First professional game was I think Dundee United vs. Aberdeen. 3. Nothing. 4. Cassano. 5. They get team sheets?
Leche010 - Who do you see surviving and not this season? Obviously Derby are going down, but it's not like that was a surprise from the start. Fulham appear to be joining them, but have brought in quite a few new names, and could easily make a push to get out... I consider them in the relegation fight, as opposed to condemned.
After that there are Boro, Reading, Bolton, Birmingham, Wigan, and Sunderland all within 2 points of each other, fighting not to be bottom of that pack. Simply which of the 7 clubs do you think have what it takes to survive, and which clubs don't?
Bobby – I picked Derby, Wigan and Fulham to go down this season and as normal I will stick with these picks until it is mathematically impossible that it won’t happen. I can see Derby’s fate being sealed with at least five games to go in the season.
Boro will continue to pick up points only to get sucked back down but will stay up; Reading is too strong at home and will survive; Bolton – they scored goals before Anelka and will find enough goals to win a couple of important matches; Birmingham have enough zip about them to finish above the bottom three as long as they hold their nerve. Sunderland – Keane will batter them if they don’t – I don’t think he will allow them to go down.
Apad03-I just read the news that the Concacaf is starting up a champions league for this region. What do you think? I am thrilled to see this happen. I have suggested this for a few years now and I think it will be great to see MLS teams flying to Honduras or the Caribbean for these games. Great experience and I think some lively football.
Bobby – A step in the right direction but it is going to take a few seasons to establish the competition in the hearts and minds.
Craigy_ f - PROMOTION TO THE PREMIER LEAGUE
Any of the current top ten in the Championship you'd love or hate to see in the Premier League next year? They are:- 1 - West Brom, 2 - Bristol City, 3 – Watford, 4 – Stoke, 5 – Charlton, 6 – Palace, 7 – Burnley, 8 – Ipswich, 9 – Cardiff, 10 - Wolves
Bobby – Nothing stands out for me really and they all have the potential to drop back down fairly quickly. Take the clubs you list and the seven clubs listed as possible relegation candidates from a question above and you have parity and an extremely competitive league.
Henry 14 - q1 Do you know how Ericksson might feel now that the bucket load of money from Thaksin seems to not have come as he thought and he really has not spend as he might have thought and do you see them challenging the course for European places if he does not strengthen?
q2 Do you think we will see the full potential of Rooney at Man Utd as long as Ronaldo is there because two years ago he was sort of going to be the alfamale now it seems he is in the shadow of Ronaldo?
q3 With Eduardo coming into his own and playing well by the game, assuming that Adebayor is a shoe in, how do you view the future of RVP because he direct rival striker are at an age that if you know if they become shoe in the team he will be frustrated because they are both 24 years.
Bobby – Q 1. I have no idea what was said to Sven when he signed on but he certainly got a bucket full of money in the summer. The new signings settled in quickly and City benefited from Sven’s organizational skills. However, the momentum has stalled and the rest of the Premiership has done its homework. He needs a regular goal scorer if they hope to compete for a European place.
Q 2 - I don’t see how a player would not achieve his full potential by playing with excellent players. I can’t agree that players can only become great players if there is no one else on the team that might challenge them. I would have thought it the other way around.
Q3 – You are assuming that there is such a thing as a first choice eleven and that all the first choicers are fit and raring to go. It just doesn’t work like that anymore and hasn’t for a long time.
LGB - Would you say that Ronaldo is already a greater player for United than Cantona was?
Bobby – No. Cantona’s influence on United goes well beyond his performances on the park and so I don’t think he ranks behind Ronaldo. The problem with the “who is better” debate is that in almost all cases it favours the current player. Only in retrospect can you really judge whether or not players should be considered as truly great or just one of the best of their generation. And like managers it may not necessarily come down to trophies won.
Farleft - I was wondering if you had any insight into the decision making of which officials get to officiate certain matches? Do officials also get promoted and or relegated at the end of the season based on their performance throughout the season? I am not trying to slag off officials or anything like that, I am just curious.
Bobby – Here is an article that explains the FA’s move a number of years ago to professional referees and another that includes an interview with Keith Hackett. The answer to your promotion/relegation is yes and in some cases referees have been “demoted” for a period of time during the season.
I wrote an article in the fall of 2006 on professional referees and their preparation and the constant feedback and evaluation they receive. Different leagues will deal with referee assignments in different ways but I am confident in stating that any league or association worth its salt is continually evaluating and working with their officials.
Neophyte - Real Madrid continue to show what a great job Capello performed while manager there. Do you think he deserves the credit of bringing back the club to preeminence in La Liga or did the rebuild start before he got? When I watch them play (Real Madrid) they look so strong...solid all the way across. Do you see a fatal flaw that may haunt them later in the season? How about Villarreal? Just out gunned in the final minutes. Got to admire the fight they showed.
One more question....Did you see Riquelme during the Boca/River match-up this weekend? He is still impressive (especially on those free kicks). Do you know why he hasn't been linked to more teams in Europe? I thought I heard Newcastle was interested (who wouldn't they be interested in?). Riquelme seems like such a talent that other teams would have picked him up already.
Bobby – Capello deserves credit because he was the one that took on the galaticos culture and won…even though he lost if you know what I am getting at. I am not convinced that Real Madrid are as strong as their record indicates.
Castillas is still relied upon to bale the team out on more occasions than seems fair and I think their midfield is going to come up short in Champions League play. Villarreal certainly went for it on Sunday – perhaps too much so. It would have been more interesting if Pires had been playing.
I did catch the second half of the Super Classico and the first half highlights. Riquleme was impressive but I don’t think you will see him leave Argentina for Europe again. He is a special talent but he needs a coach who is willing to build a team around him.
At Barcelona that didn’t happen and that is why it did not work out. At Villarreal – initially anyway – they were willing to do that. To answer your question of “who wouldn’t be interested”? – the answer is the overwhelming majority of good teams would not be interested. They are not too many teams willing to gamble success or failure on a single player and that is pretty close to the straight choice with Riquelme. A wonderful talent but with limitations.
AlanV - Different subject. I just finished reading the article about the pilot program to have only the team captain be allowed to discuss decisions with the Ref. As a parent whose son plays at the club level, we already have a similar program here in So. California, at least as far as the parent and player accountability go.
My son has to sign a code of conduct each year where he promises to maintain a level of decorum and civility. He's a ref (U14 and lower) and has noticed a difference for the better in the comments of both players and the sidelines. I think it's a great idea and hope it works. I can agree to a players initial reaction when he disagrees, that's human nature. But there's no call for half the team to be discussing the situation with the ref, especially knowing he won't change his mind. What's your take? Will it work at the pro level or will that be impossible to enforce.
Bobby – It will work if the leagues are willing to stick with it. However, too often we have seen these initiatives taper off after a few weeks. It is really about setting standards and sticking to it. Unfortunately it is easy to say but difficult to stick to.
Henry 14 - My question is that Owen is given an excuse when he does not score that he needs service and other strikers are not given such a ride. The poacher is a dying breed hence reference to Ruud's assist rate
Bobby – You make a good point. I have read a number of articles over the last few seasons that allude to the same point that pure strikers are now a luxury and that they need to deliver more. Having said that it really doesn’t matter if a striker is a pure poacher or a more rounded player they still nned service or some kind to get goals.
LGB - If there is anyone who believes that LFC's most profitable year was a pre-tax profit of £9.46m than I have a bridge that I'd like to sell you...
Ursusarctos provided a top class explanation but I will chime in with my two cents worth.
It is not what they (businessmen) are losing, it is their take on how much more revenue potential there is. Generally successful entrepreneurs do not make money by buying successful businesses, they make money buying companies that they consider to be undervalued and that have potential to generate significantly more revenue or have a poor cost structure.
In the case of football clubs in England the Glazers, Hicks and Gillett see that additional revenue coming from fans. To cut to the chase they purchase the club with little of their own money at stake and then through increased revenue from the fans they pay off the loans incurred in the purchase. End result - they own the club and the fans pay the purchase price and more. The problem is that it is a gamble and should certain assumptions not work out then you see the potential of a financial meltdown ala Leeds.
“What I'm trying to say is that the numbers are #### (just like with United) and these clubs even with the construction of new stadia and the like are still making money hand over fist.”
I can understand that this stuff is not easy to understand but that doesn’t make it ####. Your example of United reminds me of the guy that jumps from the 40th floor of a building and as he passed the 20th floor people heard him say “so far so good.”
The Glazer deal may work out but that doesn’t preclude the fact that it is highly leveraged and comes with significant risk – as does the Liverpool deal. Try telling Leeds fans that it was #### …….they went into Administration for fun right!
The Leeds example is only used as an example of a meltdown …Leeds problems were not caused by a buy-out but they were caused by making some key assumptions that proved to be wrong.
Gongatore - If warranted is there a side in Europe that you could see Altidore going to in the next transfer window? How do you rate Cruz and Zlatan at Inter?
Bobby – Moving clubs is an individual decision but from my point of view I think the rush to have Jozy Altidore move to Europe is ill-advised. He’s better off in MLS where he can play regularly for the next season or two. If he really makes an impact then when he moves he will be on his terms.
Cruz has scored goals throughout his career and continues to do so – a reliable goal scorer but well short of being one of the best. Zlatan on his day can be one of the world’s best players. It depends on whether or not it is his day!
Albertagooner - I'm trying to figure out how Patrick Barclay has managed to spot Arsenal's aerial weakness. Neither of United's goals involved a high ball hoofed into the box. In any event, both Gallas and Toure have a wonderful spring. I'd rather have them than taller defenders who have difficult marking strikers, such as Jamie Carragher or John Terry.
Bobby – I think Barclay is identifying a more traditional weakness rather than one that showed up on Saturday. The problem use to show up when Sol Campbell was missing and there is still a doubt in my mind about how well Arsenal deal with crosses.
It seems to me one of the things that they have improved on this year is not allowing so many crosses to reach the penalty box. I don’t have the stats to prove that and it could just be a case of Arsenal retaining more possession. I never considered Jamie Carragher to have had any trouble marking strikers. The only issue with Terry is that sometimes he can be caught out by a quick forward one-on-one but his anticipation and the way he plays the angles makes it a rare occurrence.
gabemar - Would you rate the chances of the three teams (Villarreal, Fiorentina and Man. City), who seem to be challenging the status quo on the three big leagues, at contending for at least CL spot until the end of the season? Also the last few weeks you have not been wearing your glasses at FSR. Are you wearing contacts or did you have lasik surgery? How do you like not wearing them?
Bobby – Villarreal and Fiorentina, Champions League spots yes. Manchester City – the jury is still out. Apart from a very poor start last season Villarreal has been a consistent performer in Liga for a few seasons now and it would not be a surprise to see them finish in the top four.
Fiorentina has an outstanding manger in Cesare Prandelli did a great job with Parma and it was unfortunate that he could not stick with Roma when he was appointed. Fiorentina’s Sporting Director Pantaleo Corvino has a great reputation and the two of them seem to putting together a very good team – even though they regularly lose players. Mutu is playing great again and Pazzini could become a very good player. There are lots of others as well.
City has a habit of starting well and fading and it might turn out to be different under SGE. However, it was interesting to note that Eriksson commented last week that he felt that other clubs might be preparing better when facing City. I think what he really meant was other teams were looking for ways to shut down Elano. Against Sunderland yesterday City collected three points but it was brutal performance by both sides.
I had laser surgery a few weeks ago and it has been great. No problems and I have my distance sight back again. Still need readers for close work in poor light but that was expected.
Flashman - How much longer can AC Milan resist the urge to pull the trigger and bring in a new manager? Huh? And how much longer can AC Milan resist the urge to make that new manager the former manager at Chelski? Yeah, the Portuguese bloke, Mourinho. That's the one.
And how long will we have to endure the myth that this year's edition of the Arsene Wenger Slight of Hand Show is the New Invincibles? Coz it ain't. It simply has to be said, because no one elsewhere has bothered to note this, that Arsenal, thus far, have played one of the softest league schedules imaginable. They've been outside of London proper only once in league play this year and coughed up an away draw to nasty Bla-hack-ahack-aburn Rovers.
Bobby – Ancelotti’s now served six years at the San Siro and his time has to be up soon. One way of coaxing the last possible piece of talent out of an older squad is to change the manager.
In terms of Arsenal’s schedule so far you are right but it is a bit of a red herring. London teams are all going to be in a similar position given that if you include Reading there are six London teams. That means that this season Arsenal will play nearly 2/3rds of their games in the London area. The counter to your argument has been put forward by a number of London clubs. The suggestion is that because of the high number of derby games London clubs actually have a tougher time of it.
Arsenal’s schedule is out of sync but that is down to the Champions League third round qualifying game that bumped an early season trip to Newcastle. As for being an easy schedule there are always going to be easy and more difficult runs. But if you compare to Tottenham’s schedule you will find that both clubs have played Sunderland, Derby, Manchester United, Fulham, Bolton, Liverpool and Blackburn Rovers. Spurs have faced five away games to Arsenal’s three. Of the remaining games Spurs have played Villa, Newcastle, Boro and Everton. Arsenal have played Manchester City, Portsmouth, and West Ham. Overall – probably about even.
PS – you missed Arsenal’s visit to Anfield of two weeks ago.
CIAO - When players and managers move to other clubs for large sums of money, you always hear them say "it wasn't about the money." The move usually is to a club that has a greater opportunity to win trophies.
That said, Ramos' move to Spurs puzzles me. He essentially built a good side that has been winning trophies. He quits too move to the Spurs. A club that placed 5th in the EPL for the past two seasons and has not won trophies. Does not play in the CL and potentially may not even qualify to play the CL next season...
It just doesn't add up. Do you by chance see some other reason (other than large sums of money) that would make Ramos' move an attractive one?
Bobby – Well the first thing I would point out is that Ramos did not build that Sevilla team – he has only been there for a little more than two seasons. He certainly turned them into trophy winners but the foundation was put in place for him – he took them over the top.
Sporting Director Ramon Rodriguez Verdejo appears to have played a more important role in turning Sevilla into a top club than Ramos. I don’t think Ramos tried to hide the fact that the money was too good to turn down.
Aldoray - What do you think about Peter Crouch as a player and his situation at Liverpool. I believe he is seriously being overlooked too often and he might be hitting the exit door at Anfield very soon along with Kewell.
Bobby – Here we go again. As I said on Monday night’s FSR a lot of people seem to think that because he is awkward to play against that it makes him a great player. When you hear Steven Gerrard suggest that Crouch has a great chance to break Jimmy Greaves England scoring record then you have to shake your head in disbelief.
The “Crouch is Great” lobby seems to base their views on his scoring record to minutes played as opposed to games appeared in. The argument goes something like this. He has an impact when he comes on and scores lots of goals so he should be on more often or earlier or even from the beginning. So let’s see if the statistics actually back up the view that Crouch is an underappreciated talent by Rafa Benitez and others.
I would suggest that the best statistics to use are from the Premiership. Reason – it gives a comparison to other strikers plus it shows the longer term effectiveness of a player against sides that are better prepared to play against the player having scouted strengths, weaknesses etc. more thoroughly.
Over the last two seasons and a bit Peter Crouch has appeared in 70 Premiership games for Liverpool – he has started in 47 and come on as a substitute in 23. He has scored 15 Premiership goals. Only four of these goals have been clutch goals – goals that either turned a potential draw into a win or a loss into a draw.
His average scoring rate is one goal every 4.66 appearances. That rate doesn’t get him in the top 100 Premiership scorers. Comparison examples - Henri Camara 3.41, James Beattie 3.99, Jan-Aage Fjortoff 3.36, Marian Pahars 3.07, Dion Dublin 2.81.
But, the Crouch lobby would argue, that goals per appearance are not a reliable indicator because although Crouch may appear many of his appearances are relatively short and have to be adjusted for. So in the interest of fairness I went back over the minutes actually played and converted into the equivalent of full ninety minute games.
This substantially improves Crouch’s average – it translates to a goal every 2.81 games, equal to Dion Dublin’s but Dublin’s average has not been adjusted to minutes played. I must have missed the “Dublin for England” lobby a few years ago.
So how does Crouch’s record stack up against some of his contemporaries? I looked at two younger players over the last two and a bit seasons – Robin van Persie and Bobby Zamora. Based on goals per minutes played RVP clocks in at an average o####oal every 2.08 Premiership games - Bobby Zamora a goal every 2.64 Premiership games. Both substantially better than Crouch.
The next point that is normally argued is that Crouch is good in the air. Given that he is five inches short of seven foot tall he should be. Well what do the statistics show? Four of his 15 Premiership goals at Liverpool have come from headers (midfielder Tim Cahill in two and a bit seasons has scored from five headers for Everton).
An interesting stat that sticks out is how few games Crouch actually completes – only 19 full Premiership games in 47 starts. And it is not just a case of being substituted in the last five minutes. His average stint in a Premiership game for Liverpool (based on him starting) when substituted, is just a few seconds short of 65 minutes.
It’s also something that shows up in his England appearances. Add it all up and a reasonable conclusion is that Crouch finds it difficult to play ninety minutes hence the reason that Benitez starts him on bench so often. Rather than playing him against fresh players it would make more sense to have him come on late when defences are tired. And guess what - he looks impressive.
But the “Crouch is Great” group then jump to Crouch’s goals in the Champions League and for England. On the basis of goals scored his numbers are impressive…….but. His goals for England have come against Estonia, Macedonia, Andorra, Greece, Trinidad & Tobago, Jamaica, Hungary and Uruguay - clutch goals two. In addition he has only completed nine games although he has collected 22 caps.
In Champions League last season he scored all seven goals against group opponents (although PSV were also opponents in the first knock out phase). It strongly suggests that again Crouch’s value is in his awkwardness to play against and uniqueness. Teams facing him for the first time have difficulty dealing with him but over time they solve the problem.
So if you are looking for a striker who is tall but not necessarily good in the air, isn’t up to playing ninety minutes, and has trouble scoring clutch goals then I guess Peter Crouch is your man.
As for heading out of the door – could happen but he will not be joining a team better than Liverpool that is going to give him any more playing time.
Syncrew - 1 Now that Avram Grant has had 10 or so matches in charge ,what do you see as the big difference between Jose's and Avram's Chelsea ? 2 Since it’s up on the blog I may as well ask who you think is the most underrated and overrated striker in Europe? 3 How do you rate Alex? He seems to be doing well in place of Terry and is keeping Ben-Haim out of the team. (Ignore that foul against Schalke.)
Bobby – 1. It’s quieter around Stamford Bridge and Sir Alex Ferguson is aiming shots exclusively at the Emirates again.
2. You will have to define underrated and overrated. As I’ve pointed out before just because a player is considered “overrated” it doesn’t mean that he is not better than an “underrated” player. If I had to sign one striker in the world it would be a fit Samuel Eto’o.
3. Alex - Good player although I’m not sure keeping Ben-Haim out of the team should be the measure of him. I think his potential is well beyond a competent journeyman such as Ben-Haim.
Gunner44 - Is it Healthy for the game that 3 or is 4 managers have already lost their jobs and it's only been 2 1/2 months in the league. Is it the managers that are to blame or the Board? I read somewhere that someone said if Spurs don't improve the whole board should be fired.
Don't managers deserve more time to prove themselves? Very few managers have the ability to turn a team into a winning side in their first season. Like Jol should have been given at least till Jan before they left them go. He had been in top 5 for 2 straight seasons and almost took Arsenal out of top 4. Taking ManUre, Chelski, Liverfools and Arse out of top 4 won't be an easy thing to do and Jol came very close to doing it.
Bobby – It is a merry-go-round and I think the managers are wise to it. Sign a three year deal for a lot of money – if you get fired you get a huge pay out. What astonishes me are the choices that some owners make – Sammy Lee and Chris Hutchings stand out. The cost of relegation is huge (even after parachute payments) and if the club’s finances are stretched with longer term player contracts involving Premiership wages even if the side is relegated then the a financial meltdown is possible.
Djnima -1. What do you think is the reason of Lampard's turnaround in form? 2. Have you heard anything of McLaren's visit to LA? A little bird told me that he may become the manager of the Galaxy after England doesn’t qualify. Becks has been recalled. Do you think he will make 100 caps?
Bobby – 1. The form of all players comes and goes and isn’t necessarily based on scoring goals. Lampard has spent the games prior to the one against Leicester in the Carling Cup shooting from almost anyplace. Just because they have started going in doesn’t mean that his form has necessarily turned around.
2. McClaren’s visit to LA appears to be pointless and beyond the ridiculous rumour that he is shopping himself to LA Galaxy I have not heard a reasonable explanation. If McClaren was looking to move then surely he would not be as stupid as this.
At least when SGE met with Abramovich he at least tried to keep it undercover. Has Becks been recalled? You are ahead of me on that one. How about another explanation – McClaren came over in person to tell Beckham that he has not been recalled?
Wiegs9 – I have a silly question that maybe somebody can answer. What are the large, reddish #### lapel pins that you, Jeremy and Mitch were wearing last night and the ones that the Sky Sports presenters (and some Premiership managers) are wearing? Unfortunately, I must have missed the show where this was mentioned. Thanks!
Bobby – They are red poppies that are worn in Commonwealth countries in honour of the people who gave their lives during the wars. Remembrance Day is November 11 and the poppy is worn as a symbol and a mark of respect. The poppy flower was chosen as they grow in Flanders where some of the most brutal battles of WW1 were fought.
JayAlves - "Fergie support for Blatter stance on imports Sir Alex Ferguson believes clubs should be seen to have 'a proportion of home-based players' - and feels rivals Arsenal would 'protest the loudest' at such a rule.”
Bobby – It is a sure sign that Ferguson is more concerned about Arsenal than the likes of Chelsea and Liverpool. I understand the full article quotes him as saying that all that would need to happen is for the Premiership clubs to agree to such a proposal. He is wrong.
Unless UEFA/FIFA are given full autonomy over soccer in Europe (and it is clear that will not happen) it would need the European Union to repeal the commitment to the free movement of labour within member countries (as it applies to soccer player) or at the very least agree to the exception under the terms of the "Lisbon Treaty" of a few weeeks ago which regards sport as special. It cannot be done unilaterally just because a few rich owners decide that they would like to.
Although I’m sure that the United owners would be happy to see the value of their investment erode as worldwide television money would shrink and the price of “home-grown” players rocket.
In a perverted way United are to blame for this. Before Matt Busby took over the manager’s job at United teams never groomed young players as a way to build a team. They signed local players who played at lower levels or proven professional players from other clubs.
It was United’s then chairman James Gibson and Busby who came up with the idea of signing the best young players and developing them. The initial focus was on Manchester youngsters but as the pool dried up United cast a much wider net to cover the rest of England as well as Scotland, Wales and both parts of Ireland.
That is why the Busby Babes came from so many different parts of the British Isles. Other clubs would complain about United poaching “their” local products. Arsenal is using the same philosophy except now scouting is done on a global basis.
MasMaz -I agree and disagree with your numbers on people watching Football worldwide. They are not anywhere as high as they claim but they are higher than you say. Especially for the WC final and the Champs league final. Did you ever see that movie about the child buddhist monk and his buddies trying to catch the '02 final?
Impossible to verify but I would guess that 200 million people watched the '02 final in Europe and South America between the 2 continents alone, adding the rest of the world I would say at least 300 million, maybe even 400.
Bobby – Television viewership of sporting events in 2006 - articles including numbers.
The USSF makes an interesting selection to lead the under-17 program.
And before we move on I think the comments from the UK’s minister of sport Gerry Sutcliffe are worth addressing. Sutcliffe picked on John Terry’s reported salary, as well as losses run up by Chelsea. He might have done his case more good if he had got his numbers right but even so picking on an individual is out of line and so are his general comments.
Sutcliffe’s comment included "people in the street cannot understand salaries like that.” That might be the case but the same people in the street aren’t likely to understand the kind of money made by entertainers and movie stars or any other highly paid individual.
It’s called the free market and John Terry and other players are entitled to be compared to other stars because that is what they are. They provide millions of people with enjoyment (and stuff to write and comment on!!) every week and any nostalgic longing for the good old days before money ruined the game is beyond nostalgia and is in fact delusional.
Over a century ago the first player was paid to play the game and from that point on it was about money. Before the abolition of the maximum wage in England the money flowed from the spectators to the owners with a relatively small portion finding a way to the players.
At least now players are paid commensurate with the revenue they generate – they are the product, they are who we pay to see. And let us not forget that “we,” as the fans, are complicit in the whole scheme. If we didn’t pay to see a game – either live on the box - or buy merchandise, there would be no money to pay the salaries.
The weekend game previews will be considerable shorter as I will be spending much of Thursday and Friday on airplanes. But here is something to chew over with over a quarter of the Premiership season already in the books.
One of things that I look at regularly is how a team is doing compared to previous years and, more often than not, the season before. The simple approach is to look at the number of games played; the points gained and compare the number to the same point in the season before.
Using that criteria and applying it to the top five finishers from last season the gainers so far are Arsenal (+8) and Liverpool (+6) while Manchester United (-2), Chelsea (-4) and Tottenham Hotspur (-8) have all lost ground. If you are attempting to project these numbers to a league finish in May you have to consider the final league points from 2006/07.
Manchester United 89
Chelsea 83
Liverpool 68
Arsenal 68
Spurs 60
In order to catch Manchester United this season Chelsea would have to gain or United would have to lose 6 points this season. For Liverpool and Arsenal the magic number was 21 points and for Tottenham 29 points.
If you assume from here on the teams would generate the same record this season as they did last season then the league table for the five teams would look like this.
Manchester United 87
Chelsea 79
Arsenal 76
Liverpool 74
Spurs 52
Chelsea’s magic number has grown from 6 points to 8, while Arsenal’s gap is now 14 where it was 21 points at the start of the season. Liverpool’s gap has also closed considerably dropping from 21 to 13 points. In the case of Spurs the gap is now an unachievable 35 points up from 29 points.
However, there is perhaps a more interesting way to compare season to season records. And that is to contrast the records last season to this one against the same opposition.
Because of relegation and promotion you have to make an assumption about the teams that dropped a division and those that came up. For the purposes of this example Sunderland = Sheffield United, Birmingham City = Charlton Athletic and Derby County = Watford.
When you consider this scenario only Spurs are actually doing worse than last season having dropped 2 points over last season. Manchester United and Chelsea are exactly even, Liverpool have picked up 2 points and Arsenal leads the pack having gained 6 points on last season.
Projected to seasons end and assuming no change to last season’s head2head records for the remaining games the positions come out looking like this.
Manchester United 89
Chelsea 83
Arsenal 74
Liverpool 71
Spurs 58
What this ishows is that despite Liverpool and Arsenal making early gains it is still a long road to catch United and Chelsea – even though it doesn’t appear that way when looking at the present table.
Of course you have to consider that given United and Chelsea’s records last season there is more down side than up. However, one area available to Manchester United are the two games against Arsenal – they lost both last season. And of course on Saturday they meet for the first time this season.
Others games that stand out this weekend include Blackburn at home to Liverpool. Don’t expect many goals in this one – we’ve only seen five in Liverpool’s last five visits to Ewood Park. In MLS to second leg of the first round of play offs continue with all three games evenly balanced. We can expect more goals than in the first leg - as we saw on Thursday evening between the Fire and DC United.
Italy has the Italian derby with Juventus against Inter. In Spain Sevilla “welcomes” Liga champions Real Madrid while Atletico Madrid versus Villarreal looks to be an intriguing match.
Canada huffed and puffed but they could make no impression on a vastly superior Chile side. Chile was fleeter-of-foot, quicker-of-mind and dominated Canada in every area of the field.
With flicks, one-two’s, nutmegs, faints and dribbles Chile put on an exhibition for a full house at BMO Field (or the National Soccer Stadium as it is referred to during this tournament).
There was never a point in the game when Canada was able to hold the ball for any extended period of time – as Chile showed poise and patience on the ball, Canada treated it as if it was part of a pass-the-parcel game with punishment forthcoming if they held on to it for more than a second.
It took 66 minutes for Canada to get their first attempt on goal and as the game progressed the Canadian got more frustrated with their inability to mount attacks of any consequence. If there were any positives to take out of this game for Canada it would be Begovic in the goal who could not faulted with any of the three Chile goals and at least the Canadians kept working throughout the ninety minutes.
Numerous Chilean players impressed with Arturo Vidal (Bayer Leverkusen) and Mathias Vidangossy (Villarreal) the best of the bunch.
Day 2 Wrap Five games and fourteen goals today made for a better day’s football. Although I only caught thirty minutes of the Spain – Uruguay game it looked to be an outstanding match with Diego Capel (Sevilla) scoring a great injury time equalizer that capped a two goal comeback for Spain.
Player of the day was a tougher pick to make than on day 1. Yosuke Kashiwagi was outstanding against Scotland but my player of the day is Mathias Vidangossy of Chile.
Day 3 Three games tomorrow, Austria vs. Congo, Portugal vs. New Zealand and Gambia vs. Mexico.
Update from the Canadian West Coast
Kevin called me from the two games held in Burnaby today – say it quick and it sounds a bit like the home of Real Madrid. The stadium which looked good on TV looked just as good in real-life. The overall organization in and around the stadium was also very good and the spectators were having a good time. The Spain - Uruguay game was particularly well received by the crowd.
You can send any information (fsr@mts.net) that you think might be of interest about the twenty-four countries and I will post a regular selection. If you have a FIFA Under-20 blog go ahead and post your link under comments.
Group A (Toronto & Edmonton) Canada, Chile, Congo and Austria.
As host nations in international tournaments generally do, Canada has benefited by a good group draw. With only a third of the teams going home after the group stage Canada has a terrific opportunity to make it to the knock-out rounds.
A place in the last sixteen should be a minimum for Canada while moving onto the last eight would be considered a successful tournament. Anything beyond that would be Canada punching well above their weight.
Although the Canadian players are generally short of the top level experience enjoyed by some of the top countries in the competition they will benefit from having six players back from the previous Under-20 tournament in Holland in 2005. Coach Dale Mitchell was also in charge two years ago.
The Canadians have undergone one of the most intensive periods of preparation of any Canadian international soccer team and should be a well-oiled machine when kick off comes.
In his days as a player Dale Mitchell was lethal from free-kicks and you can look for Canada to take advantage of set piece opportunities. The spine of this team will dictate how far it goes so look for the likes of Asmir Begovic in goal, David Edgar at centre back, Will Johnson in midfield and Andrea Lombardo who will run all day for the cause up front. A concern for the squad is the relative depth should they hit injuries and / or suspensions.
The schedule has also been kind to the hosts as they face Chile on Canada Day in front of a sold out BMO Field. Chile will also be without their star turn Alexis Sanchez. Sanchez is suspended, as is at least one more Chilean player and possibly another two. Sanchez is considered a phenomenon in South America having been capped by the senior Chilean national team only two months after his 16th birthday in 2005.
Serie A club Udinese signed the youngster for $4M but left him on loan at Colo Colo in Chile. It was a move that paid off for Colo Colo as Sanchez helped lead his club to the final of the 2006 Copa Sudamericana only to lose to Pachuca of Mexico. Regular viewers of the Fox Soccer Report will remember some of his displays. Sanchez excels when running at defenders and has a bag of tricks that allows him to dribble out of tight spaces. Free-kicks are another specialty.
Central defender Arturo Vidal had an outstanding South American qualifying campaign and as well as being called up to the senior squad he earned a move to Bayer Leverkusen in Germany. Midfielder Mathias Vidangossy (Villarreal) plays a critical role in Chile’s counter-attacking style although his finishing still leaves much to be desired.
Chile qualified as the fourth places country in South America and only beat out Paraguay on goal difference. Coach Jose Sulantay was in charge of the under-20 side in Holland two summers ago.
Given the performances from African countries at previous under-20 tournaments Congo deserves respect, particularly as Congo arrives as African Champions. In the last eleven tournaments stretching back to 1985 African nations have provide nine top four finishers even though Africa has still to provide a champion.
Congo may have benefited from hosting the qualifying tournament but still handled perennial finalists Nigeria 1-0 to become African Champions. Congo’s striker Fabrice Nguessi Ondama was named best player at the African tournament.
Austria last qualified when the competition was held in Mexico in 1985. Austria slipped through the preliminary round of European qualifying group when they finished five points behind group winners France but progressed after beating out Wales on goal difference. The Austrians then hit their stride in the next round beating Russia, Slovenia and Hungary all be single goals.
In the final round of qualifying Austria finished second behind the Czech Republic in Group A ahead of Poland and Belgium. A 4-1 win over Belgium remains the only win of consequence for Austria. In the semi final the team collapsed in the face of a Spanish onslaught that saw the eventual European Champions run up a 5-0 win.
If Austria has any chance to move on it will be down to the form of striker Erwin Hoffer (Admira Wacker) who scored four goals in three group qualifying games but missed the game against Spain through a suspension after picking up too many yellow cards.
Aldo writes to say that attended Chile’s first practice and the team is “surprised at how hot it can get in Canada”. The weather is something that might be a shock for a lot of teams.
Eric managed to catch the second half of the warm up game between South Korea and the Czech Republic. “Thousands of Koreans singing and chanting, one solitary Czech guy! Korea scored a cracker in the second half, they looked fast and skillful, knocked the ball around well. Czechs were more interested in punt and run. Big Guys up front for the Czechs. Korea could maybe surprise a few, but it was only exhibition”.
Other news
Olympic Stadium is looking at an extra expense. It seems that the Canadian Soccer Association agreed to rent a moveable artificial surface from an Australian company only to have the surface fail FIFA’s quality control and certification process. Ironically the CSA now has to buy a surface at an estimated cost of $500,000 from Montreal-based Field Turf.
You can send any information (fsr@mts.net) that you think might be of interest about the twenty-four countries and I will post a regular selection. If you have a blog and you have information on the tournament you can post your link under comments.
Tomorrow a preview of Group D – Brazil, USA, South Korea and Poland.
Before we move on to the Milan – Manchester United second leg, I am surprised that I have not heard or read anything so far about Pepe Reina’s great penalty saving ability. This is a keeper who in 2004/05 saved seven of the nine penalties he faced while with Villarreal. Then last season he saved three out four spot kicks in the FA Cup Final.
Let’s start in Spain this week. It seems that while Barcelona confront a reasonably straightforward stretch run the other title contenders are being left to knock lumps out each other. Last week it was a case of Valencia having to beat Sevilla – which they did - and this week they have to repeat the feat, this time against Real Madrid.
If Valencia can collect another three points (they have failed to win back to back league games since mid January) then they only have to play one team presently in the top seven – Real Zaragoza – in their last seven matches.
On the other hand Real Madrid and Sevilla have to play each other as well as Real Zaragoza. Perhaps the team we should really be feeling sorry for is Real Zaragoza who is currently fifth in the league and ahead of Atletico Madrid courtesy of a better head-to-head record.
This weekend Sevilla faces an Athletic Bilbao side that has come to life in their last two matches. Athletic Bilbao has never been relegated and has finally dragged themselves clear of the bottom three positions in the league. Sevilla are going through a goal drought and this match may prove trickier than the league positions might indicate.
Barcelona have not exactly been road warriors this season and have only one win away from the Nou Camp in the last eight games. They do however have an excellent record against teams in the lower half of the division which is where a disappointing Villarreal side currently resides. Barcelona have won 11 and drawn four of 15 such games, while conversely Villarreal have only three wins in 16 games against top-class opposition.
In Germany, Bayern Munich travels to face the team currently one spot above them in the Bundesliga, third-place Stuttgart. Stuttgart currently enjoys a two-point cushion on Bayern Munich and after this weekend only four games will remain.
Bayern cannot afford to lose this weekend, because if they do there will be a very real possibility that next season their only participation in the Champions League will come from watching on television. For a side that over the last decade has won the Bundesliga title seven times, been runners up twice and finished third once it would be a crippling blow. Only four of the first choice eleven out under the age of 29, and it is clear that Bayern need to retool this summer. Without Champions League money Ottmar Hitzfeld may have to restrict his shopping to the bargain bin.
Inter should wrap up Serie A this weekend after they stumbled late in the midweek game against Roma. Lazio and Fiorentina are two sides that have recently seen excellent runs come to an end. For Lazio, two draws against as Ascoli and Chievo brought eight straight wins to a halt. Even so Lazio’s last loss was back on December 20. They face a Fiorentina side that lost to Parma in midweek after going 11 games without loss. Both sides enjoy two very effective striking partnerships. For Lazio it is Rocchi (15) and Giuly many five because he kbit okay because he is going to get very Kiel doolally gor (10), while Fiorentina can look to Luca Toni (16) and Adrian Mutu (14).
Lazio are currently sits third in the league 11 points behind rivals Roma, but only four points ahead of Milan. Fiorentina is seventh but have Empoli and Palermo in their sights even though the gap is five points.
Two teams who have spent the week moving players in and out clash in MLS. Houston Dynamo moved defender Kevin Goldthwaite to Toronto for midfielder Richard Mulrooney, while the New York Red Bulls also sent defensive help – and they desperately need it – to Toronto in the shape of speedy full-back Marvell Wynne.
However, the most interesting move was the acquisition of 31-year-old Colombian striker Juan Pablo Angel by the New York Red Bulls from Aston Villa. The frantic pace of the Premiership never suited Angel’s style but I reckon he’s got a good few goals left in him and he will turn out to be a very astute signing. The Colombian’s debut depends upon how quickly a work permit can be acquired.
In the Premiership Manchester United - unbeaten in the last 14 one games – await the visit of Middlesbrough who are winless in their last five away games. In fact, Middlesbrough have only one away win all season and only two teams have collected fewer away points. However, Boro appear to enjoy the Old Trafford stage and have a very respectable record. Since 2002 Boro only lost once in five Premiership visits to Manchester United while winning twice and drawing the other two games.
Coincidently a similar dynamic appears to be at play when Newcastle plays Chelsea at St James’ Park. Newcastle goes into this game have won only once in their last seven Premiership games. Chelsea on the other hand have won their last nine. But, Newcastle have won three and drawn the other when Chelsea have come calling in the last four seasons. The Magpies also enjoy the sixth best record in the league against top half teams, while they sit only 18th against teams occupying positions eleven through twenty. The better the opposition the better Newcastle seem to play.
Tottenham Hotspur manager Martin Jol said this week that his team needs to win four of the remaining five games in order to secure a UEFA spot for next season. Step one would appear to be beating Arsenal in the early game on Saturday. This is something that Spurs have failed to do in their last 17 league and cup matches against their North London neighbours. Six more points for Arsenal will guarantee them at least fourth place and entry into the Champions League pre-qualifying round 2. These two teams have shared the points in five of the last six premiership games that White Hart Lane. What chance of six out of seven?
At the bottom of the Premiership Charlton and Sheffield United is a game that everyone will be keeping an eye on. A classic six pointer, Charlton are undefeated in 11 league games against Sheffield United, but are currently two points behind the Yorkshire club with the same number of games played.
Sheffield United have lost more away games in the Premiership than any other team and have not even scored on the road since in early February. On the other hand Charlton are unbeaten in their last four home games and have kept clean sheets in each of then.
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites.
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