I try to answer as many questions as possible but I know that I have missed a number over the last few days. As much as I would like to sit and blog most of the day, time is a problem and I am afraid that it is just not possible to answer every query that is posted.
UEFA World Cup Qualifying Another off day at the European Championships and an opportunity to look ahead at World Cup qualifying in Europe that will get underway in less than eight weeks when Kazakhstan plays Andorra. The bulk of the game day one fixtures go on September 6.
There are eight groups of six countries and one of five. The group winners will qualify for the finals. The eight best runners-up will be qualify for a play-off round in which there will be four two-leg ties and the winners will qualify to play in South Africa in 2010.
In deciding the best runners up spots the eight groups of six will not have the results against the countries finishing bottom counted.
Group 1 Portugal, Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, Albania and Malta
Group 2 Switzerland, Greece, Israel, Moldova, Latvia and Luxembourg
Group 3 Czech Republic, Poland, Northern Ireland, Slovakia, Slovenia and San Marino
Group 4 Germany, Liechtenstein, Azerbaijan, Wales, Finland and Russia
Group 5 Turkey, Spain, Belgium, Bosnia Herzegovina, Armenia and Estonia
Group 6 Croatia, England, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Andorra
Group 7 France, Romania, Serbia, Austria, Lithuania and Faroe Islands
Group 8 Italy, Bulgaria, Republic of Ireland, Cyprus, Georgia and Montenegro
Group 9 Netherlands, Scotland, Norway, Macedonia FYR, and Iceland
Based on what you have seen over the last three weeks has your views changed on who might qualify from Europe?
Prediction Update We are down to only two possible winners. LHJS currently has 36 points and Geniusatwork has 34 points. With ten points available to the tournament winner it comes down to Germany (LHJS) or Spain (Geniusatwork).
Whoever gets it wrong will drop down the standings as there are a significant number of people sitting with figures in the low 30s and with either Spain or Germany to win.
The unofficial prediction rabbit Carlos has fallen to the folly of allowing his heart to rule is head. He picked Portugal to beat Spain in the final and so he has stalled out at 42 points.
Comment of the Day “WSC statisticians are also compiling a report on behalf of a secretive but influential global organisation that we are not at liberty to name. Findings include: Simone Perotta's birth in Ashton-under-Lyne has been mentioned a total of 15 times by the two TV channels and national radio; the local TV directors have missed live action while running a slow motion replay 23 times; the BBC panel have offered truisms disguised as analysis on 65 occasions; Alan Shearer has appended “for me” to his half-time comments on 19 occasions, conclusively establishing that the views expressed are his alone rather than those of the entire BBC production team in Vienna, or Geordies everywhere.” – When Saturday Comes on television coverage in the UK.
Stat Fact The highest scoring European Championship final was in 1976 when Czechoslovakia and West Germany drew 2-2. In the penalty shoot-out Uli Hoeness’ spot kick cleared the crossbar with room to spare and then Antonin Panenka chipped the winner down the middle as Sepp Maier anticipated a shot to the corner.
True or False Uli Hoeness was the last German player to miss a penalty in a shoot-out at a major international championship?
Semi Final Preview Germany vs. Turkey A late winning goal against Switzerland was regarded as a fine piece of opportunism, while two goals in the last three minutes against the Czech Republic in the next game was considered to be remarkable.
Then came an equalizing goal with virtually the last kick of the ball in extra time against Croatia – after going a goal behind only seconds before – followed by a dramatic penalty shoot-out win.
Each performance has topped the one before both in terms of dramatic effect and achievement. Now facing the pre-tournament favorites Germany with a depleted squad, can Turkey do it one more time?
The bookies do not think so and are giving odds of around 7/1 that Turkey will be able to maintain their phenomenal run in Wednesday’s semifinal. It is certainly not the first time that Turkey have been cast as the underdogs at this tournament but they have also never gone into a game with such an under strength team.
Tuncay Sanli, Arda Turan and Emre Asik and first choice keeper Volkan Demirel will all be missing through suspension. Emre Belozoglu, defenders Servet Cetin and Emre Gungor, as well as Tumer Metin and striker Nihat Kahveci who are all either definitely out or are extremely doubtful because of injury. Defensive midfielder Mehmet Aurelio who missed the dramatic win against Croatia returns after serving a one-game suspension and constitutes the only bright spot.
Coach Fatih Terim should not have too much difficulty picking his starting lineup. His tactics should be pretty straightforward as well. When Turkey has tried to defend at Euro 2008 they have struggled to impress. However, when they have pushed forward and pressured the opposition they have looked to be a far more dangerous team.
So even though there may be a temptation to defend in numbers and to wait for the one or two opportunities that might come their way, Turkey’s best chance to get the result they need to make it to the final is to attack Germany. Such an aggressive plan may backfire but it offers a better chance of success than sitting back and trying to absorb 90 minutes (or 120 minutes) of German pressure.
Any plan that encourages Germany to play most of the game in Turkey’s half of the pitch will only lead to set piece opportunities and the Germans are just to big, to strong and to well organized not to take the chances that will come their way.
Germany’s number one objective will be to concentrate on this match and not to allow their minds to wonder to a possible Sunday meeting against Spain or Russia. Unlike his Turkish counterpart Germany coach Joachim Low will have to give some thought to his starting eleven.
After missing a game against Portugal with a rib injury midfielder Torsten Frings is likely to be declared fit for this game. (Frings missed the World Cup semifinal against Italy two years ago and his absence was noticeable.) Coach Joachim Low compensated for his absence against Portugal by changing formation and moving from a conventional 4-4-2 to a 4-2-3-1.
The change served a dual purpose. It provided extra cover to the back four and offered a solution to the second striker question. Mario Gomez came into this tournament as one of the potential bright young things but has suffered a terrible run of form so far.
By going with Klose as a lone striker, Low was able to capitalize on the attacking instincts of Michael Ballack. Ballack played between Podolski and Schweinsteiger and three players figured significantly in Germany’s three goals.
Credit Check Is Philipp Lahm the most under appreciated player in the Germany squad?
Comment of the Day “It is because Germany can break your heart as easily as they might snap a dried-out twig. They do it as a matter of course. Sometimes it seems almost the equivalent of taking a breath. Ask Argentina, the spell-binding masters of the last World Cup, we thought, until they ran into Germany, and felt their life-blood draining away.
The Germans started as a laughing stock and finished in third place, their coach Jürgen Klinsmann and his successor Joachim Löw installed as national football icons alongside Franz Beckenbauer and Gerd Müller and the late Fritz Walter because they had shown the most valued talent in the football of the Fatherland – they showed that however unpromising the circumstances, they could make extraordinary things happen.
This is the history and the here and now of the German game the Turks confront tonight. It is the football of pragmatism, yes, but also of steel. It is football which dwarfs that of all rivals except Brazil and Italy.” – James Lawton in The Independent.
Stat Fact “Bastian Schweinsteiger has a goal, an assist, a yellow card and a red card to his name at Euro 2008. The only other player to have achieved this feat is Denmark's Klaus Berggreen in 1984.” – BBC.
Match Report Germany 3-2 Turkey
I####oal is scored at Euro 2008 and the worldwide television audience does not see it did it really happen? Unfortunately with the score at 1-1 we were reminded of how much we rely upon and expect from modern technology. This time it failed and we essentially missed a fantastic last eleven minutes that brought three goals. And so for millions around the globe the semi final was an anti-climax.
It was an erratic performance from Germany against a Turkish team that was never outclassed and for long periods of the game Turkey was by far the better side.
Full back Philipp Lahm was to be at the epicenter of the action as the game reached a rousing climax. With eleven minutes to go a Lahm cross found Klose about twelve yards out. Recber opted to come for the ball but never got close and the header found an empty net. At that point Germany must have thought that they had finally broken Turkey’s spirit.
But back came Turkey and after Sabri had skinned Lahm out on the touchline his low cross was deflected past Lehmann by Semih Senturk – 85th minute. And so the prospect of another game going to extra time seemed very real.
However, it was Lahm that popped up one more time to decide the game with only seconds remaining and send Germany to the final on Sunday. As Podolski dropped deep Sabri was pulled out of position. Lahm was played in by Thomas Hitzlsperger and opted to go for the nearside and fooled Recber who had anticipated the opposite.
If Germany had any doubt that they would have to battle for a place in the final it was put to rest during the first 45 minutes. Turkey driven on by Hamit Altintop, Kazim and Ugar Boral in midfield showed more desire and initiative than the favorites Germany.
It took over 20 minutes for Turkey to take the lead but before that they had gone close when Kazim struck the crossbar with Lehmann beaten and had created some other good opportunities.
The goal was scrappy but deserved. Kazim was again at the center of it when his shot rebounded off the bottom to a waiting Ugar Boral. As Lehmann struggled to regain bearings the Turkish midfield players shot nutmegged the German keeper and trickled over the line.
But Germany’s response was quick. Podolski was set free down the left side and his cross was met first time by Schweinsteiger who clipped his shot wide of Recber and into the corner of the net. But even then Turkey still enjoyed most of the possession on were a constant irritant to the German defense and midfield.
Croatia v Turkey Preview – Reaching the quarterfinal stage of the European Championships matches Croatia and Turkey’s best ever performances. For Croatia their previous appearance in the final eight came in 1996. They beat Turkey 1-0 (a late goal from Vlaovic) in the group stage before losing 2-1 to the eventual winners, Germany.
Four years later, Turkey last 2-0 to Portugal in the quarterfinals. In both cases Croatia and Turkey went on to enjoy great runs at the World Cup finals two years later. Both countries became surprise semifinalists and both finished third.
Only time will tell whether either or both can use Euro 2008 as a launching pad for further success in 2010. Both coaches will have more urgent matters on their mind. In the case of Slaven Bilic the biggest worry may be that very little has gone wrong so far.
Despite losing Eduardo da Silva to a broken leg before the tournament, Croatia has operated as a well oiled machine. The defense has been solid, Niko Kovac has provided an effective defensive shield in midfield, while Srna, Modric and Kranjcar have looked lively and effective behind the lone striker Olic.
Even after making mega changes to the starting eleven for the mean-nothing final game of group play against Poland, Croatia still won handily. Comparisons have already been made with the team of a decade ago. Perhaps this Croatian team will evolve into the best ever but it seems premature to compare this team against the likes of Asanovic, Prosinecki, Boban, Jarni and ####.
Bilic started the first game against Austria with two men up front but changed to a lone striker against Germany. The latter formation provided an extra man in midfield and allowed the likes of Kranjcar to attack from deep positions. Expect to see Bilic sticking with a 4-1-4-1 from here on.
We knew going into the competition that Turkey was unpredictable. However, in the three performances so far the word unpredictable gets no place close to what we have seen. On the back foot for most of the game against Switzerland they grabbed a late winning goal as the Swiss pushed forward.
Then came the dramatic finish against the Czech Republic. No one can doubt the fighting spirit of Turkey. But their performances have come at a price. The casualty list is extensive - defender Servet Cetin, Tumer Metin, Emre Gungor and Emre Belozoglu are all either definitely out or extremely doubtful. Suspensions also mean that goalkeeper Volkan Demirel and Mehmet Aurelio are unavailable.
Aurelio in particular will be badly missed. The Brazilian born defensive midfield player has been outstanding in the tournament. In goal we can anticipate that one of the heroes from 2002, Rustu Recber will step in.
Following the World Cup in 2002 Recber transferred to Barcelona but it proved to be an unhappy move. He returned to Turkish football after one season and now at 35 he he has been given another opportunity on the European stage.
The odds are stacked against Turkey and it will need a colossal performance to beat Croatia today.
Referee: Roberto Rosetti, linesmen: Alessandro Griselli, Paolo Calcagno (all Italy), fourth official: Manuel Mejuto (Spain)
Match Report
Croatia 1-1 Turkey (Turkey wins 3-1 on penalties)
If you ever want to show a
player or a team why you should never give up, point them towards Turkey’s performances
at Euro 2008. Each dramatic finish has topped the one before but you have to
wonder how they can possibly beat this one.
After 119 minutes without a goal
Klasnic took advantage of a mental error by Turkish goalkeeper Rustu Recber and
looked to have put Croatia through to a semifinal meeting with Germany. Recber was
caught out of his goal and was beaten to a loose ball by Modric. The midfielder turned neatly and chipped the
ball to a waiting Klasnic who was left in front of an unattended goal.
It was almost
inconceivable that with only seconds left that Turkey could recover from such a
death blow. But recover they did and
more. Recber pushed everyone forward and pumped a free kick into the Croatia
penalty area. The ball broke to Semih Senturk who had come on after 75
minutes and he lashed shot past an astonished Pletikosa.
It was then to penalty
kicks and it was clear that Turkey held a clear psychological advantage. They had
fought through a depleted starting lineup, suspensions and conceding a late
goal in extra time and and while Turkey knew that they’d come back from a near
death experience, Croatia knew that a lapse in concentration had let Turkey off
the hook.
When Modric put the first
penalty wide the writing was on the wall.
Of the four Croatia penalties only Srna scored while Turkey was
successful with all three attempts.
Some may describe this
game is drab, others as a game dominated by defenders. But Croatia could have
built themselves a healthy lead before the halfway mark in the first 45 minutes. But the combination of poor finishing-in
particular a staggering miss from Olic- and some last-ditch defending from Turkey
stopped Croatia from taking the lead. By the break Turkey had played their way
back into the game and was beginning to edge Croatia.
The Croatian back four was
lying deeper and the knock on effect was Olic as the lone striker was becoming increasingly
isolated in attack. Croatia was also
allowing Turkey more space in front of the defense and although Turkey’s
chances were restricted to some long-range shots there was a hint that it was
only a matter of time before some chances inside the penalty box would come
their way.
In the second half Croatia
mixed their game up and tried to pick Olic out with some direct play. But it
was clear that the game had settled into a defensive battle with both teams
struggling to get behind the other’s defense.
And so Croatia is left to regret
the loss of a fantastic opportunity for a rematch with Germany while an even
more depleted Turkish side will line up in their first ever Euro semifinal next
Wednesday.
Comment of the Day “We have 15 footballers, two goalkeepers and we can make three substitutions. That is what we have.” – Turkey coach Fatih Terim.
Prediction Update No update today as it is a time intensive process. I will post the leader board at the conclusion of the quarter finals. However, I can add that there are a lot of the leaders that are going to be down to only a couple of teams in the semis.
Preview – Germany was my pre-tournament pick to win it all. Apart from a solid and sometimes impressive performance against Poland in their opening game this German team has failed to reach nights of the team of two summers ago.
Even though German coach Joachim Löw will be able to watch today’s game from the good seats he has more to worry about than the seating arrangements.
His team has a number of doubts with the injury to Torsten Frings the most pressing concern. Without Frings the German midfield will need to be shuffled with Ballack perhaps being asked to play deeper than usual. Either way the Germans need to find and execute a plan to contain Deco.
The biggest concern to Portugal might be Germany’s threat at set pieces. Carvalho and Pepe have been strangely hesitant on some cross balls in earlier games and that might be something Germany can exploit.
I’m not going to switch horses (better to be wrong once than wrong twice!) at this stage but would willingly concede that if Germany beat Portugal today it will run counter to the form book.
Misses next match if booked:
Portugal - Jose Bosingwa, Miguel, Jorge Ribeiro, Paulo Ferreira and Fernando Meira.
Germany - Michael Ballack and Jens Lehmann.
Referee: Peter Frojdfeldt, linesmen: Stefan Wittberg, Henrik Andren (all Sweden), fourth official: Kyros Vassaras (Greece)
Match Report Portugal 2-3 Germany
If you’re looking for an example of why group form doesn’t mean very much when it gets down to the knockouts stage here was a great example. Germany overcame an indifferent start to the tournament and knocked out a Portuguese side that was favored to move into the last four.
Joachim Low overcame the loss of Torsten Frings to injury by matching Portugal’s 4-2-3-1 formation. Hitzlsperger and the thoroughly impressive Rolfes took care of the defensive midfield duties which allowed Michael Ballack to support the lone striker Miroslav Klose while playing between Schweinsteiger on the right and Podolski on the left.
The move by the German coach seemed to take Portugal by surprise as they struggled in the early going to control Ballock.
The first of the five goals came after a surging run from Podolski. He held off Bosingwa (great going forward but looks very dodgy defending) and he created enough space to slide a cross to the onrushing Schweinsteiger who had lost his marker Ferreira.
Within minutes Germany was two goals to the good when Portugal got their marking all wrong at a free kick. While Portuguese markers focused on Ballack and were then distracted by a great dummy run from Rolfes, Klose was left all alone to hit home. But even then there were few signs that the scoring had finished.
Portugal was finding it far too easy to find teammates with passes and they had lots of space to operate in. More goals just had to come and another did just before of half time. Ronaldo found space behind the German back four and although Lehmann made a good save Nuno Gomes knocked a loose ball into the net.
As the second half got underway it seemed to be only a matter of time before Portugal would equalize and perhaps even to go on and win the game. But too often the final ball into the penalty box or the shot on goal was poor.
Ultimately it was another free kick that was to be Portugal’s undoing. It was almost identical to Germany’s second goal and again the Portuguese defense was culpable in their marking… or lack of. This time the cross reached Ballack and goalkeeper Ricardo was caught in no man’s land as the ball rolled into the net.
However, it was not to be a worry free last 30 minutes for German fans (and for those of us who have picked Germany in prediction pools!!). Between while dying a thousand deaths on the bench, Scolari managed to throw on substitutes Nani and Postiga and it was the two subs that combined for the last goal of the game with three minutes left.
A massive disappointment for Portugal and Germany becomes the first team into the last four. Five goals, lots of action, some sloppy defending and some excellent entertainment. Here’s hoping that it continues.
Comment of the Day
"No17 Germany – 1m98, No13 – 1m88, Klose – 1m82, No21 – 195. I have to worry about that – and that my players are 115cm, 120cm." - Luiz Felipe Scolari.
Prediction Update
Nearly 20% of posters (too many to list) got the finishing positions of countries in group D spot on. It tightened things up at the top and Sounderfan has dropped down to second place. According to my calculations here is everyone currently with 20 points or more.The highest possible total after the group stage was 32 points.
One person who did not post his predictions on the blog but if he had he would be leading by a solid margin would be FSR anchor Carlos Machado. Carlos’ only missteps to date were switching the finishing order or Germany/ Croatia and Austria/Poland in Group B.
If he had posted his predictions he would be sitting on 28 points at the moment. Quite an impressive performance from Carlos who also took out time out to complete the Manitoba Marathon last Sunday in a little under four hours.
Questions
These two questions were posted yesterday.
1. So far, is this a better tournament than Euro 2004?
2. Without checking the statistics do you think Euro 2008 has produced more, about the same or less goals than Euro 2004?
My sense is that this is a better tournament than we saw four years ago. The pace is quicker, more teams are committed to going forward and attacking and there have been a number of more memorable performances to date.
I was surprised that there have been fewer goals in the group stage than there was in 2004. Perhaps my memory is clouded by day scarcity of goals in the knockout stage in Portugal. And who knows, there is a strong chance that goals will again be hard to come by once more in the knockout stage.
The cooler temperatures (slightly warmer temperatures in Austria – 26 goals, cooler in Switzerland –31 goals) are likely encouraging a faster pace game and rewarding the countries that are willing to go out and take the game to the opposition.
The Netherlands, Spain, Russia, Portugal, Turkey (second-half anyway), Croatia and, despite what many knee-jerk stereotype dependant critics will tell you, Italy all benefited by adopting an aggressive approach.
The “what we have we hold brigade” (France, Romania, Poland, Greece and Sweden) are all on the way home. To date only Germany of the sides who have approached the tournament with containment in mind (to be fair it may be a case with Germany that they have just misfired badly) has made it to the knockout stage.
Total Football Revisited
On day eight I posted a comment about commentators who described the Dutch style of 2008 as a total football. I suggested that you should distrust any such description. Gabriele Marcotti suggests that you go a step further and punch them in the mouth!
Czech coach Karel Bruckner
recalled Jan Koller the lead the attack and it quickly paid off. A weakness in
the centre of the Turkish defence was evident in their first two group games
and in the early going Koller exploited it.
The Czech settled into a early rhythm as they looked to find Koller at every opportunity and to feed off his
knock downs and flicks. However, the Czech tactics came with a price tag and it
was the big striker who was footing the bill (I could have said writing the
cheque!) as he took a battering from the Turkish back four.
Just as Turkey seemed to
be finding their game with some tidy possession football the Czechs took a
well-deserved lead. Galloping down the right side on the overlap Grygera
whipped in a cross just behind Koller. The striker managed to reposition
himself and the resulting header flew into the roof of the net.
The Czechs rode the goal
to half time with Turkey showing little response to going a goal down. However,
it was a very different Turkish side that came out for the second half and
pressed the Czechs at every opportunity. Even when the Czechs went to up
against the run of play it only served to reinvigorate a Turkey side that just
would not give up.
The second Czech goal came
after a quick free kick was fed out to Sionko who crossed invitingly to the far
post. Plasil arrived at a rate of knots to complete a very smart move. Excellent goal.
But even
at 2-0 there were the seeds of defeat in the Czechs play. Where in the first
half the team pressed forward and allowed the likes Sionko, Matejovsky and Polak
to support and feed off Koller, in the second half the Czechs lost that shape
and large gaps started forming between midfield, Koller and the support
strikers.
Koller’s legs were the
first to go but he would not be the last. Incredibly, Bruckner stubbornly stuck
with the first half goal scorer rather than looking to the likes of the mobile
Baros or Sverkos the scorer of the winner against Switzerland. As the Czechs
failed to hold possession up front the pressure mounted on the midfield and the
defence as Turkey continued to swarm the Czechs at will.
With quarter of an hour left Arda Turan
stepped up to give Turkey hope as he reduced the deficit to one but still
Bruckner stuck with Koller. Kadlec and Vlcek came on for Plasil and Sionko but
neither moved threatened to turn the tide. Almost every Czech player was being
outworked, out tackled and out fought by a younger and much fitter Turkish team.
However, with three
minutes to go it looked as if the Czech Republic would hang on. Little did
we realize that we still had the most astonishing finish since Spain scored
twice in injury time to beat Yugoslavia 4-3 at Euro 2000 in store.
First Cech dropped a
routine cross at the feet of Nihat who gratefully slipped the ball into an
empty net.
Then just two minutes
later the Turkish captain caught Jankulovski a step behind the other defenders,
sprung the offside trap and thumped a shot over the oncoming Cech, off the
underside of the bar and into the net.
Turkey led 3-2 but there
was more still in store. A stramash in the Turkish box ended with the ball rolling
wide of an empty goal but after it had gone out of play Demirel took a pop at
Koller and deservedly got sent off. After having used all their substitutes, Turkey finished
the match with ten men and with Tuncay Sanli in goal.
The Czechs leave the
tournament after the coach who put them in a position to move on, in turn
became the coach whose decision to stick with Jan Koller killed their chances.
Portugal 0-2 Switzerland
Switzerland finish bottom
of Group A but leave the tournament with a win.
Comment of the Day
“But the pluses(for Portugal) are not merely Deco back on top form controlling midfield alongside Joao Moutinho, but also Cristiano Ronaldo, a player capable of turning games even if he is not playing especially well.
It feels like a Life of Brian “What did the Romans ever do for us?” comment, but aside from creating two goals and scoring one, Ronaldo did little against the Czechs. They almost succeeded in isolating him, but almost with Ronaldo is not enough.” – Jonathan Wilson in the Financial Times.
Other goings on It is a World Cup qualifying weekend in Africa, Asia, South America and CONCACAF.
There were a few shocks in Africa yesterday with Angola, Egypt, Ghana and Morocco all losing while
Cameroon and the Ivory Coast both drew.
However, this is only the half way point in a preliminary qualifying stage so it might be a bit premature to think realistically that some of these countries are going to miss out on the first World Cup Finals in Africa.
The prelim stage has 12 groups with the winners and 8 best runners up moving onto a final; group stage of four teams in five groups. Winners will then join the host nation South Africa in 2010.
World Cup qualifying in Africa also doubles up for the African Cup of Nations Finals and that is why South Africa is involved.
An update of the current group standings in Africa can be found by following the link.
One country that will not be in South Africa in two years time is 2002 qualifiers China. Consecutive losses to Qatar and yesterday to Iraq put paid to Chinese hopes. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Japan, North and South Korea, Bahrain and Uzbekistan are all guaranteed a place in the final stage of Asia qualifying.
The remaining two places will be decided next weekend with Iraq up against Qatar in Group 1 and UAE or Syria in Group 5.
An update of the current group standings in Asia can be found by following the link.
Two games in South American qualifying were played yesterday and both finished in 1-1 draws – Uruguay at home to Venezuela and Peru at home to Colombia. The other games scheduled for today are Paraguay vs. Brazil; Argentina vs. Ecuador; Bolivia vs. Chile.
Yesterday’s draw puts Venezuela into fifth place in the group (a place above Uruguay) and they have a solid chance of maintaining that position after today’s games.
Paraguay could give Brazil are real run for their money I fancy.
An update of the current group standings in CONMEBOL can be found by following the link.
And last but definitely not least we have CONCACAF qualifying. Canada hopes to start a journey that will conclude with their first appearance at the World Cup finals since 1986 while the USA want to make it six consecutive appearances at the finals.
This preliminary round generally keeps the traditionally more powerful nations apart and matches then with non-traditional soccer powers in a home and away series. The chances of a real shock or two are not high but from time to time the bigger countries only squeak past the “minnows”.
Costa Rica made it to Germany in 2006 but they had to rely on the away goals rule to get past Cuba at this stage four years ago. And after yesterday’s result against Grenada they may have a tough time again.
Costa Rica was down 2-0 after less than thirty minutes before finally drawing 2-2 in St Georges.
So a warning to Canada (vs. St. Vincent and the Grenadines) and to the USA (vs. Barbados) who both play today.
Honduras is already through to the next stage after drawing 2-2 with Puerto Rico yesterday after winning the first leg 4-0.
A CONCACAF schedule and scores to date can be found by following the link.
Two games and two wins for
Portugal and they are within a smidgen of moving on to the knock out stage. The
Czechs put in a far better performance than the opening game and can go into
the final match with some confidence.
The early goal from Deco came
after some great interplay just on the edge of the Czech penalty box. Portugal
was offered too much time and far too much space. Ronaldo and Nuno Gomes are
involved before Deco nips into score. The early counter was the making of the
match as the Czechs clawed their way back into the game.
Former Ranger Libor Sionko
was the liveliest player for the Czechs on Saturday and he up for this game as
well. The equalizer came from a well-placed Plasil corner kick and Sionko
stooped low to beat Petit to the ball and direct a header past Ricardo. Cross
balls would continue to cause Portugal problems throughout the match and it is
something that other countries will have been sure to notice.
The game flowed back and
forward to half time and into the second half although Portugal was much more
adept at creating chances. Deco in particular was a constant threat. The eventual winner came from a lightning
quick attack. The ball found in Deco just inside the penalty box and his
cutback found Ronaldo arriving at the edge of penalty after the Czech’s had
failed to pick up his run. The shot was beat Cech and again the Czechs were
forced to try and find a way back into the game.
Free kicks and corner kicks
offered the best chance of success and although the centre of the Portuguese
looked uncomfortable every time a cross was delivered the next goal came at the
other end. With only seconds left another quick free kick caught the Czech
defence square and high. Rolando ran on unmolested and after drawing Cech out of
the goal he rolled a pass to Quaresma. The substitute rolled the ball into the
empty net.
No doubt Ronaldo will
garner the headlines but Deco was the stick that stirred the Portuguese
cocktail.
Turkey 2-1 Switzerland
It has been a long time
since I can remember a game played at a major championship in such bad conditions. With surface water visible over much of the park each pass came with the possibility
of dying in one of the many puddles or aquaplaning and leaving players to stretch
in desperation.
The West Germany vs. Poland semi final at the World Cup of 1974
suffered as a spectacle when a torrential downpour hit but in this case you
could argue that the weather conditions actually made the match.
Every dribble, every
tackle, every pass came with the opportunity for a turnover or for defensive disaster from situations that would normally generate predictable outcomes. The Swiss
were quicker to adapt as they chose to harry and press the Turks at every
opportunity.
Derdiyok’s pace up front
caused the Turkish defence all sorts of trouble and it was the youngest player
of the tournament who set up the first goal. Served up on a plate is not an
uncommon expression but this one was served up in a puddle as Derdiyok crossed
to the unmarked Yakin at the far post.
The ball died in the water as Yakin
waited to tap it in and he had to quickly readjust in order to get to the ball
before the Turkish defenders who were desperately trying to plow through the
waves (exaggeration).
Shortly after Yakin had what
is probably the miss of the tournament as he missed a wide open net after again being fed at the back post.
Half time brought an end
to the rainstorm and an opportunity for the groudstaff to deal with some of the
standing water. As conditions improved so did Turkey’s performance. The
equalizer came from a magnificent cross from Nihat powered home by Semih
although a top class goalkeeper might have been expected to deal with the effort.
Switzerland looked the
more likely to score the winner although Turkey remained a realistic threat on
the break. And so it was with seconds left that Turkey broke away and scored
the winner.
Turkey now face Czech with
each country tied on points, goal differential and goals scored. A draw would
set up penalty kicks to decide who moves as runners-up to Portugal. Portugal is
now guaranteed to finish top of the group and can now rest players for the
final game against Switzerland.
Comment of the Day
"The
fundamental value at the heart of football is solidarity, together with
collective intelligence, creativity, critical thinking, courage and fair
play. These are qualities which have nothing to do with Switzerland and
the Swiss." - Jean Ziegler.
Instantly forgettable that was this match was. Oh well it is not as if we have not become use to poor opening games at major championships. Neither side showed anything that would make you look forward to their next game.
The Swiss midfield four got the better of a five man Czech configuration. Behrami, Fernandes, Inler and Barnetta were brighter, more mobile and quickly closed a down Czechs. However, they lacked someone able to play a killer pass into the penalty box and for all their hard work they rarely threatened.
Sionko’s pace and willingness to take players was the only thing that stood out in largely pedestrian Czech midfield. In fact pedestrian pretty much describes this Czech team. Although they clearly miss Nedved and Rosicky in midfield it is the demise of Jan Koller as a regular and persistent threat that has impacted the Czechs the most.
His substitution after less than an hour came as no surprise and now Coach Karl Bruckner must choose between the ageing Koller and Václav Sverkoš who replaced him and scored the only goal.
On Wednesday the Czechs play Portugal while the Swiss need at least a point against Turkey.
Officials note – Italy’s Roberto Rosetti had a good game although it was not a difficult one to handle. Despite the match commentator referring to two controversial handballs there was nothing controversial about either incident. Referee got both calls right.
Portugal 2-0 Turkey
The second game of the day was much more pleasing on the eye as both teams attempted to play the ball to feet and to build attacks for the most part. Portugal was by far the better team and in the first half they had a Pepe goal disallowed and a Ronaldo free kick tipped onto the post by Turkish keeper Volkan Demirel.
As the first half progressed Portugal was able to get Deco on the ball more and as he grew in confidence we saw more decisive runs at the Turkish defence. Simao also posed a threat to the Turks every time he attacked. Portugal (and other sides watching) could not but help but see an obvious aerial weakness in the Turkish defence. With every cross delivered from a wide position the Portuguese threatened to score.
The breakthrough goal, when it arrived in the second half, came uncharacteristically from Pepe pushing forward during open play. Under Scolari it is rare to see either of the Portuguese centre backs moving forward for anything other than free kicks and corners.
But no matter, Pepe picked up a loose ball about forty yards from the Turkish goal and pushed towards the heart of the defence. Playing a one-two Pepe was then left alone inside the penalty box and scored with the help of slight deflection of Asik as he scrambled to make a last ditch tackle.
Either side of the Pepe goal Nuno Gomes hit the woodwork twice. However, basing his performance of these two close encounters is deceiving given that he should have been able to take full advantage of a poor Turkish central defensive pairing of Servet Cetin and Gökhan Zan.
Turkey’s main threat came from Nihat but he badly lacked support. Kazim Kazin (Colin Kazim-Richards formerly of Bury, Brighton and Sheffield United) flattered to deceive on the right side of the midfield as he looked confident and comfortable on the ball but he failed to take advantage of the potential weakness of the right footed Ferreira playing at left back.
Sabri Sarioglu added a bit of pep to Turkey’s play when he came on as substitute but overall Portugal was well deserving of the three points and should be happy with the overall performance.
Before we gaze into the crystal ball here are some statistics collected from UEFA.com and other sources on the players, countries and club affiliations at Euro 2008.
Players Oldest – Ivica Vastica a midfielder for Austria will be 39 in September which makes him six weeks older than Germany’s goalkeeper Jens Lehmann.
Youngest – Swiss forward Eren Derdiyok will no longer be a teenager when he turns 20 in six days time.
Tallest – Czech Republic forward Jan Koller stands at 202 cms. which is little over 6 foot 8 inches. But beware Koller and other tall players have been known to grow during major tournaments. Commentators take it upon themselves to add half an inch here and there and so if the Czechs reach the final game don’t be surprised if Koller is over seven foot by June 29th.
Shortest – The player jumping up and down in the tall grass will be Romanian midfielder Florentin Petre who is nearly 5 foot and six and a half inches although he claims that the wall chart in kitchen shows six and five eighth inches.
Countries (average) Oldest Sweden 29.14
Italy 29.10
Greece 29.05
Youngest Russia 26.13
Switzerland 26.38
Spain 26.40
Countries with players 21 or under at the start of the the tournament - 21 Switzerland, Portugal, Austria and Turkey 3 each
Croatia, France and Poland 2 each
Romania, Czech Republic and Spain 1 each
Countries with outfield players 34 or over at the start of the the tournament - 16 Austria, Sweden, France, Croatia, Italy and Czech Republic 2 each
Poland, Italy, Germany and Turkey 1 each
Countries with the fewest domestic based players in their squad Croatia 2
Czech Republic 3
Countries with the most domestic based players in their squad Russia 22
Germany and Italy 19
Tallest (average) Croatia 184.91 (a smidgen under 6 foot 2 inches)
Germany 184.87
Switzerland 184.61
Shortest (average) Spain 179.61 (180 is 6 foot)
Turkey 180.35
Portugal 180.57
Players contributed by clubs Panathinaikos (Greece) and Lyon (France) 10 each
Galatasaray (Turkey) and Bayern Munich 9 each
Premiership clubs represented – 17 of 20. Arsenal and Chelsea 7
Liverpool 5
Manchester United 4
Highest representation of players by league Germany 56
England 43
Spain 41
Italy 36
Russia 30
For those making predictions don’t be to despondent should your “dead-cert can’t lose winner” get off to a slow start. There is ample evidence to show that countries can recover from a set-back or two at the group stage and still go on to the final or even win the Championship.
1980 – Belgium won only once in the group stage but went on to finish as runners-up to Germany.
1984 – Spain recorded just one win in three group games but qualified for the knock out stage all the same and finished as runners-up to France.
1988 – The Netherlands lost their opening game of the tournament to the Soviet Union but gained revenge when the counties met again in the final when the Dutch won 2-0.
1992 – Danish players were recalled from the beaches and golf courses of Europe to take the place of Yugoslavia. Denmark had a draw and a loss in their first two group games before beating France and moving into the last eight. From there the Netherlands were beaten in a penalty kick shoot-out and the Danes took the title beating Germany 2-0 in the final.
1996 – The Czech Republic lost their opening group game 2-0 to Germany but rebounded to make the final against the same opponent. However, Germany doubled the Czechs with a golden goal from Oliver Bierhoff.
2004 – Few would have predicted that the two countries that opened the tournament would also make it all the way to the final match. But that was exactly what happened. Greece beat Portugal 2-1 in the opener and then again 1-0 in the final.
However, few seem to remember that the opening game win was Greece’s only victory in group play. The second match was a 1-1 draw with Spain and Russia then beat the eventual winners 2-1. Portugal actually won group A while Greece only moved on based on scoring more goals than Spain having finished tied on both points and goal differential.
Predictions Before anyone jumps all over anyone's predictions there is one rule. No criticism allowed unless you also post your own predictions under the comments section. A scoring system can be found at the end of my predictions.
Group A 1. Portugal 2. Czech Republic 3. Switzerland 4. Turkey
Group B 1. Germany 2. Croatia 3. Poland 4. Austria
Group C 1. France 2. Romania 3. Italy 4. Netherlands
There has to be at least one surprise and for me this is it. I flipped between France and Italy not to qualify and the decision eventually swung on Cannavaro’s injury and the potential France have available from the bench. We will see.
Group D 1. Spain 2. Greece 3. Sweden 4. Russia
Quarter Finals Portugal to beat Croatia
Germany to beat Czech Republic
France to beat Greece
Spain to beat Romania
Semi Finals Germany to beat Portugal
France to beat Spain
Final Germany to beat France
Prediction scoring system 1 point for every group position picked correctly.
2 bonus points for getting 1st or 2nd position in the group correct
3 points for correctly predicting the winners of each of the quarter final matches
5 points for correctly predicting the winners of the semi finals
10 points for correctly predicting the winners of the competition.
By my calculation sixty-four points (64) constitutes the maximum score.
Group A continued It took Switzerland nine attempts before finally making it to the European Championships finals. That was back in 1996 and they followed with another appearance in Portugal four years ago.
How they qualified As a co-host the Swiss were spared the trauma of qualification.
The Coach Kobi Kuhn succeeded a raft of foreign coaches (Uli Stielike, Roy Hodgson, Gilbert Gress and Enzo Trossero) when he took over the Swiss national team duties seven years ago and when he retires after this tournament he will be replaced by German Ottmar Hitzfeld. Kuhn controversially installed Alexander Frei as captain in the spring of 2007 after a very public falling out with Johann Vogel.
Key Players Alexander Frei has spent a good part of this season injured and only recently returned to play for his club side Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. If he can regain his sharpness for the summer tournament the Swiss may benefit from the enforced rest of their top striker.
Arsenal’s Philippe Senderos’ frailties have been on show at the club level but he still has the confidence of his international coach. Tranquillo Barnetta of Bayer Leverkusen enjoyed an excellent 2006 World Cup in Germany although he did miss a penalty in the shoot-out loss to Ukraine.
Great Euro Memory Their European Championship finals debut came in 1996 when they held host country England to a 1-1 draw. England led from an Alan Shearer goal early in the game but with seven minutes left Stuart Pearce was called for a handball in the penalty box and Kubilay Turkyilmaz equalized from the spot.
Synopsis Switzerland comes into the tournament with all the advantages and disadvantages of co-hosting. No worries over qualifying but unrealistic expectations and few opportunities over the last two years for the team to be tested in competitive games.
The Swiss were knocked out of the 2006 World Cup without conceding a goal although how they achieved such a feat with Pascal Zuberbuhler in net can be considered as a modern-day miracle.
The team has mix of youth and experience although a number of players (Patrick Muller, Tranquillo Barnetta, and Frei) have struggled with injuries lately. Of the two host nations the Swiss have by far the better chance to move on to the last eight.
Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying Drawn in Group 2 with Greece, Israel, Moldova, Latvia and Luxembourg.
Turkey made their European Championship Finals debut in 1996 but lost all three games. Four years later they lost in the last eight to Portugal by a score of 2-0.
How they qualified It was topsy-turvy qualifying campaign for Turkey. Against all odds (including a ban on playing at home for part of the group stage) they started very well in Group C then hit a torrid streak at the midway point.
Just as they looked as if they had again blown their chance they recovered their nerve and finished seven points behind Greece and a point ahead of Norway. Hakan Sukur who has been left out of the squad for the finals was Turkey’s leading scorer with five goals. Tuncay Sanli and Nihat Kahveci each had three.
The Coach Fatih Terim is in charge at the Euros for a second time having helped Turkey to England in 1996. After the ’96 tournament and for the next four years Terim held a Midas-touch with league titles and a UEFA Cup coming his way while in charge of Galatasaray.
A move to Serie A with Fiorentina and then AC Milan did not prove to be nearly as successful and a return to Galatasaray failed to rekindle past glories. After failing to make it to the 2006 World Cup finals a place in the last eight is probably the minimum he needs to keep his job.
Key Players Nihat Kahveci has enjoyed a fantastic season with Villarreal in the Spanish league and looks to have put his injury woes behind. Small, mobile and with the instinct that only very good goal scorers have, Nihat could again become one of the most sought after strikers in Europe after this tournament.
Great Euro Memory At Euro 2000 the final group B match found co host Belgium needing only a draw against Turkey to move on to the knock out stage. Despite going into the match winless in five finals games Turkey shocked the home side with a goal on the stroke of half time from Hakan Sukur and with twenty minutes left the talismanic striker repeated the feat and Turkey moved on with Italy to the quarter final stage.
Synopsis Turkey and host nation Switzerland have “history” from a 2006 World Cup qualifying play-off game so when they face each other there might be fireworks. A hit-or-miss qualifying campaign makes it very difficult to assess Turkey’s chances. On top form they could be a great dark horse; on other days they may struggle to win a game.
Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying Drawn in Group 5 along with Spain, Belgium, Bosnia Herzegovina, Armenia and Estonia.
Another Sunday, another draw. This time it is for the European Championship Finals. Here are some initial thoughts on the draw and what might be in store.
Group A Switzerland, Turkey, Portugal, Czech Republic
June 7 – Switzerland vs. Czech Republic, Portugal vs. Turkey June 11 – Switzerland vs. Turkey, Czech Republic vs. Portugal June 15 – Switzerland vs. Portugal, Turkey vs. Czech Republic
Summary The Czech Republic and Portugal will start as the favourites to move on but as one of the co-hosts Switzerland should not be easily discounted. The Czechs have a fine history in this tournament and made it to the final game in 1996, the semi finals in 2004 and were unlucky to be drawn together in a group with co-hosts the Netherlands and eventual winners France in 2000. However, the Czechs would have preferred not to have drawn the co-hosts in the opening game of the tournament.
Portugal is another country that has performed well at the last few European Championships. After going unbeaten at the group stage in 96 the Portuguese went out to the Czechs in the last eight when Karel Poborsky scored the only goal of the game. In 2000 they took winners France to extra time and it needed a golden goal from a Zidane penalty to decide the game. As hosts in 2004 their tournament got off to a poor start when they lost to Greece. Although they bounced back and made it to the final they again faced Greece and lost once more.
Turkey missed out on the 2004 finals although they qualified in 1996 and 2000. There appearance in 1996 was a first at the European Finals and they went winless in three games. Lessons were learned and four years later they made it to the quarter finals where they lost 2-0 to Portugal. Qualification for 2008 consisted of a series of highs and lows. A great start was highlighted by a 4-1 away win against European champions Greece. A series of poor performances and dropped points meant hopes of qualification were rapidly receding before two wins (including a come-from-behind win away against Norway) saved the day.
As co-hosts Switzerland will enter the tournament without the advantage of any competitive matches since the 2006 World Cup. However, Coach Kubi Kuhn will be hoping that his young side can build on a solid performance in Germany last summer. Switzerland made it to last summer’s World Cup after beating Turkey is an ill-tempered play-off game and memories of this are unlikely to have receded by next summer.
Keys Under manager Karel Bruckner the Czechs are the consummate team. Any side that knocks off the Czechs can look forward to going deep into the tournament.
Portugal will be difficult to break down but their progress might be largely dictated by whether or not they can find a reliable international goal scorer.
Which Turkish side will turn up at the tournament?
Switzerland went to the last sixteen in Germany last summer and was knocked-out without conceding a goal. Another strong defence showing – although in 2006 goalkeeper Pascal Zuberbueler seemed to more lucky than good! – and some opportunism in front of goal might generate the kind of momentum that leads to a shock or two.
Group B Austria, Poland, Germany, Croatia
June 8 – Austria vs. Croatia, Germany vs. Poland June 12 – Austria vs. Poland, Croatia vs. Germany June 16 – Austria vs. Germany, Poland vs. Croatia.
Summary Based on performances Germany will not be particularly concerned with their draw. However, with two traditional rivals in Austria and Poland this group will have a derby game flavour and that should be a cause for concern. A re-emerging Croatia side will also be looking to repeat their countries famous win over Germany at the 1998 World Cup in the knock-out stages.
Poland bounced back from a poor start in qualification to move on with room to spare. Surprisingly this will be Poland’s first appearance at the Euro Finals and they will be looking to make it to through the group stage of a major tournament for the first time since 1986. Poland pushed Germany all the way last summer before losing to a late goal. However, it was a poor display and a first game loss to Ecuador that was critical. A win over Austria is mandatory if they are to have a realistic chance to progress.
By knocking out England in group qualifying Croatia lost any chance of sneaking under the radar. Slaven Bilic has created a confident and competent side that should make it to at least the last eight.
Austria have already been labeled as the worst country (performance-wise that is) ever to host a major tournament. They are so bad that a group of Austrian fans started a petition that asked the team to withdraw in order to save face.
Keys Germany has a huge target on their backs and needs to meet their historical rivals Austria and Poland head-on. A slow start might be costly.
Poor starts have cost Poland dearly at the last two World Cups and they can ill-afford a repeat.
Expectations are so low that even one win in the group stage might be considered a success for Austria.
The schedule has been kind to Croatia with an over-matched Austria first. Next up is Germany before what might be a decider against Poland in the last group game.
Group C Netherlands, France, Romania, Italy
June 9 – Romania vs. France, Netherlands vs. Italy. June 13 – Italy vs. Romania, Netherlands vs. France June 17 – France vs. Italy, Netherlands vs. Romania.
Summary As soon as this draw was made the Group of D***h label was applied. No team can be overlooked here.
Romania only lost one game in qualifying and that was once they had guaranteed their spot in the finals. Along the way they beat Netherlands for the first time ever and now look to be fulfilling their potential of a few years ago.
France , insults, Italy, Materazzi, video replay, Zidane, revenge, head-butt, World Cup Final, sisters, Domenech saying something stupid – that is what we have to look forward to for the next six months. At least it won’t be go to penalty kicks – unless they hook up again in the semi final game!
The draw was not kind to the Dutch and then the schedule really put the boot in. Italy followed by France is not what the Dutch would have wanted. The 1988 European Championship remains the only major trophy won by the Netherlands. After this tournament it is unlikely that this will have changed.
Keys As the best-known Romanian players Adrian Mutu and Christian Chivu are going to garner most of the headlines but this squad has a lot more depth than just these two. In any other group Romania would have an excellent chance to move-on but ….
France made it the World Cup Final last summer with one of the oldest squads ever seen at the Finals. It is almost inconceivable that they can repeat while looking to the same core of veterans …or is it?
Italy won the World Cup with a squad of players that were almost all in the prime years of their footballing lives. Donadoni needs to squeeze out another round of great performances before moving on. If he can, then a World and European double is not out of the question.
Goal scoring was a problem during group qualifying and in a number of games the Dutch were only a goal way from embarrassment. Chances have to be converted on a more regular basis or the Dutch may be out of contention before game three.
Group D Greece, Russia, Spain, Sweden
June 10 – Greece vs. Sweden, Spain vs. Russia June 14 – Greece vs. Russia, Sweden vs. Spain June 18 – Greece vs. Spain, Russia vs. Sweden.
Summary This is probably the most open group and a lot of attention will be paid to the amount of grey hair in charge pulling the coaching strings.
The reigning European Champions Greece has bounced back after failing to make the 2006 World Cup Finals. A humiliating home loss to Turkey (4-1) was the only bump on the 2008 road which was then negotiated without too much difficulty.
Spain has now made it to the last fifteen of sixteen major finals and has generated a lot of momentum since starting poorly in group qualifying for 2008. But as we all know Spain’s problems normally start when they reach the finals of a major tournament. The squad is more than solid containing a number of players that could find a place in any team in the world. However, until they win a major final (1964 is so long ago and pretty much discounted) the doubts will remain.
There were a few hiccups along the way for Russia but major tournaments and Guus Hiddink seem to mix very well. Like Spain, Russia has (the Soviet Union did win the first European championship in 1960) rarely delivered on the world stage and one of Hiddink’s challenges is to instill a sense of believe in a squad that has considerable talent.
Sweden has a great record of qualification for major tournaments and is always a difficult opponent.
Keys There will be no element of surprise for Greece this time. The other fifteen countries will be well prepared should Otto Rehhagel opt for a repeat performance of stifling defence and opportunism in front of goal. What can the coach come up with this time?
Hiddink’s ability to chop and change on the fly as needs arise is almost without parallel. Spain needs to finally win a must win game. If they can do that then maybe years of disappointment will melt away.
