Quarter Final

Croatia v Turkey
Preview – Reaching the quarterfinal stage of the European Championships matches Croatia and Turkey’s best ever performances. For Croatia their previous appearance in the final eight came in 1996. They beat Turkey 1-0 (a late goal from Vlaovic) in the group stage before losing 2-1 to the eventual winners, Germany.

Four years later, Turkey last 2-0 to Portugal in the quarterfinals. In both cases Croatia and Turkey went on to enjoy great runs at the World Cup finals two years later. Both countries became surprise semifinalists and both finished third.

Only time will tell whether either or both can use Euro 2008 as a launching pad for further success in 2010. Both coaches will have more urgent matters on their mind. In the case of Slaven Bilic the biggest worry may be that very little has gone wrong so far.

Despite losing Eduardo da Silva to a broken leg before the tournament, Croatia has operated as a well oiled machine. The defense has been solid, Niko Kovac has provided an effective defensive shield in midfield, while Srna, Modric and Kranjcar have looked lively and effective behind the lone striker Olic.

Even after making mega changes to the starting eleven for the mean-nothing final game of group play against Poland, Croatia still won handily. Comparisons have already been made with the team of a decade ago. Perhaps this Croatian team will evolve into the best ever but it seems premature to compare this team against the likes of Asanovic, Prosinecki, Boban, Jarni and ####.

Bilic started the first game against Austria with two men up front but changed to a lone striker against Germany. The latter formation provided an extra man in midfield and allowed the likes of Kranjcar to attack from deep positions. Expect to see Bilic sticking with a 4-1-4-1 from here on.

We knew going into the competition that Turkey was unpredictable. However, in the three performances so far the word unpredictable gets no place close to what we have seen. On the back foot for most of the game against Switzerland they grabbed a late winning goal as the Swiss pushed forward.

Then came the dramatic finish against the Czech Republic. No one can doubt the fighting spirit of Turkey. But their performances have come at a price. The casualty list is extensive - defender Servet Cetin, Tumer Metin, Emre Gungor and Emre Belozoglu are all either definitely out or extremely doubtful. Suspensions also mean that goalkeeper Volkan Demirel and Mehmet Aurelio are unavailable.

Aurelio in particular will be badly missed. The Brazilian born defensive midfield player has been outstanding in the tournament. In goal we can anticipate that one of the heroes from 2002, Rustu Recber will step in.

Following the World Cup in 2002 Recber transferred to Barcelona but it proved to be an unhappy move. He returned to Turkish football after one season and now at 35 he he has been given another opportunity on the European stage.

The odds are stacked against Turkey and it will need a colossal performance to beat Croatia today.

Referee: Roberto Rosetti, linesmen: Alessandro Griselli, Paolo Calcagno (all Italy), fourth official: Manuel Mejuto (Spain)

Match Report

Croatia 1-1 Turkey (Turkey wins 3-1 on penalties)

If you ever want to show a player or a team why you should never give up, point them towards Turkey’s performances at Euro 2008. Each dramatic finish has topped the one before but you have to wonder how they can possibly beat this one.

After 119 minutes without a goal Klasnic took advantage of a mental error by Turkish goalkeeper Rustu Recber and looked to have put Croatia through to a semifinal meeting with Germany. Recber was caught out of his goal and was beaten to a loose ball by Modric.  The midfielder turned neatly and chipped the ball to a waiting Klasnic who was left in front of an unattended goal.

It was almost inconceivable that with only seconds left that Turkey could recover from such a death blow.  But recover they did and more. Recber pushed everyone forward and pumped a free kick into the Croatia penalty area.  The ball broke to Semih Senturk who had come on after 75 minutes and he lashed shot past an astonished Pletikosa.

It was then to penalty kicks and it was clear that Turkey held a clear psychological advantage. They had fought through a depleted starting lineup, suspensions and conceding a late goal in extra time and and while Turkey knew that they’d come back from a near death experience, Croatia knew that a lapse in concentration had let Turkey off the hook.

When Modric put the first penalty wide the writing was on the wall.  Of the four Croatia penalties only Srna scored while Turkey was successful with all three attempts.

Some may describe this game is drab, others as a game dominated by defenders. But Croatia could have built themselves a healthy lead before the halfway mark in the first 45 minutes.  But the combination of poor finishing-in particular a staggering miss from Olic- and some last-ditch defending from Turkey stopped Croatia from taking the lead. By the break Turkey had played their way back into the game and was beginning to edge Croatia.

The Croatian back four was lying deeper and the knock on effect was Olic as the lone striker was becoming increasingly isolated in attack.  Croatia was also allowing Turkey more space in front of the defense and although Turkey’s chances were restricted to some long-range shots there was a hint that it was only a matter of time before some chances inside the penalty box would come their way.

In the second half Croatia mixed their game up and tried to pick Olic out with some direct play. But it was clear that the game had settled into a defensive battle with both teams struggling to get behind the other’s defense.

And so Croatia is left to regret the loss of a fantastic opportunity for a rematch with Germany while an even more depleted Turkish side will line up in their first ever Euro semifinal next Wednesday.

Comment of the Day
“We have 15 footballers, two goalkeepers and we can make three substitutions. That is what we have.” – Turkey coach Fatih Terim.


Prediction Update
No update today as it is a time intensive process. I will post the leader board at the conclusion of the quarter finals. However, I can add that there are a lot of the leaders that are going to be down to only a couple of teams in the semis.