The Observer looks back to some Premiership predictions from August of last year. Next Monday I will repost the predictions article that was posted nine months ago. This gives you a week to finetune your excuses and for some of you to complete the hole that you should be hiding in.
The latest on Marvin Andrews the Trinidad and Tobago defender who stunned doctors two years by playing on when the professionals felt it was impossible.
Twenty-five years on Tom English looks back on Sir Alex Ferguson’s first European trophy.
The other half of Avram Grant (so to speak) and a bit more.
Simon Kuper on the terrorism threat that hangs over this summer’s European Championships.
A small piece on Manchester United’s financial situation that I have not seen (up to Saturday evening) any place else.
Robert Philip talks to and about Denis Law before the Scotland and Italy game on Saturday. At the end of the article there is a reference to League Internationals that were mentioned on the blog a couple of months ago.
A more measured assessment of the European Union’s free movement of labour. The reason you are hearing British politicians spouting off on the subject is simple - there is no downside for them.
They can take a political popular - but wrongheaded – stance on foreign players that plays well with the punters. Simple reason for the complex problem of failure at the international level – foreign players.
No evidence, no need to hold the FA accountable or the players for that matter. (Remember this is largely the same team that last summer before Germany 2006 was being described as the golden generation – we found out it was more gilded than gold.)
But no matter at the end of the day the politicians know that they can’t do anything about the number of EU nationals playing in England unless the EU grants a total exemption for football and that will not happen.
MLS Cup Final
I have no idea if MLS intentionally scheduled the Cup Final for a weekend that coincided with European and World Cup qualifying but let us give them credit anyway. The Houston Dynamo versus New England Revolution can take centre stage on Sunday with little else in the soccer world battling for attention.
The Rev’s past failures have been well chronicled as has the Dynamo’s attempt to become the first team since DC United to win back-to-back titles. And of course it is a rematch of last season’s final. During regulation time that game was almost completely devoid of any memorable moments and it took two goals within seconds of each other during extra time to bring the match to life.
New England had the better of the Dynamo during the regular with a 1-0 win and a 3-3 draw although Houston did finish two points ahead of the Revolution. New England edged Houston in goals scored (51 to 43) but that was more than reversed when it came to conceding goals. The Rev’s defence let in close to double what the Dynamo did (43-23).
In setting a new regular season record for the fewest goals against Houston was the model of consistency while shutting out the opposition thirteen times. What’s more the Dynamo only let in more than two goals in a game twice and they lost neither one – the aforementioned six goal thriller with New England and a 4-3 win over Real Salt Lake in September.
For New England it was a case that when it rained on their defence it monsooned. They conceded three goals or more seven times and only came away with a couple of draws. Over half the goals that New England let in during the regular season came in these seven matches which means that over the other twenty three games they averaged less than a goal against per game.
Nine clean sheets also strengthen the argument that perhaps New England are not such a defensive liability as the goals against column might indicate. New England fans might also look to the Rev’s not yet conceding a post season goal while the Dynamo gave up two to FC Dallas.
New England’s standard 3-5-2 formation gives them the extra man in midfield over Houston’s 4-4-2. However, the game might come down to how well Michael Parkhurst, Jay Heaps and Avery John can handle Nate Jaqua - or Brian Ching if he is fit. Houston peppered the Kansas City defence with crosses last weekend and delivering quality balls from wide positions will be a key for the Dynamo. If New England are to win then they need to cut that supply route and they will also need Sharlie Joseph to dominate the midfield and feed Noonan, Twellman and Ralston.
The longer the game goes without a goal the more likely it is that we will get MLS 2006 part two. Here’s opening for an early goal and a better spectacle than twelve months ago.
Next to European Championship qualifying.
Group A – The group of draws with fifteen of the 46 games so far having finished tied but trips to Switzerland and Austria next summer are now for Poland and Portugal to lose. A home win for Poland would book a place and save them from a potentially awkward trip to Belgrade to play Serbia on Wednesday. Belgium are at a low point as far the national team is concerned – maybe it is due to the foreigners playing in the country – and Poland should get the three points that they need.
Portugal can only make sure of qualifying if they get a better result at home against Armenia than Finland does versus Azerbaijan and Serbia does against Kazakhstan. In all likelihood all three will win meaning that Portugal will still need to beat Finland in Lisbon next Wednesday to guarantee that they progress. There is still the possibility of a two or three way tie for the runners-up spot. Either possibility would be bad news for Portugal as they would lose out to Finland (two-way) and Serbia (three-way).
Group B – Italy failed to qualify for the finals of the European championships in 1984 after winning the World Cup two years before. They need a tie against Scotland on Saturday to make sure history does not repeat itself – with due respect to the Faroe Islands an Italian win at home on Wednesday is a certainty. In theory a draw could also put Scotland through if France would lose to the Ukraine in five days time – not going to happen.
So Scotland have to beat the reigning World Champions in their final game to qualify for their first major championship since 1998. A tall order but given the group that they were drawn into a one game decider is better than any Scots’ fan could have expected.
Scotland’s best chance to get the win that they need? The longer the game stays scoreless (well up to a point) the better it is for Scotland. Italy will become more and more cautious while Scotland should be able to throw more men forward in an attempt to get a precious winner. (Is there a new John Greig ready to do the business?)
Honestly if I was Roberto Donadoni I would be going for the jugular from the start and come out looking for an early goal that would take the Hampden crowd out of the game and set Scotland a target of at least two goals in order to qualify. Are you listening Roberto?
Group C – Greece have already qualified and will be defending the trophy they won in 2004. The other spot is between Norway and Turkey and the Norwegians are two points up withTurkey traveling to Oslo for Saturday’s match.
While Turkey started strongly (12 points from the first four games) and have faded badly the Norwegians have gone at it in reverse. Seven points from the first five matches has become 11 points in the second half. A win for Norway seals the runners-up spot while anything else will take the final outcome to the last round of play on Wednesday. Norway are away to Malta and Turkey are at home to Bosnia Herzegovina so a draw (in Turkey the sides shared four goals) would set the Norwegians up nicely.
Group D - Germany and the Czech Republic are both going to the Alps while four other countries are playing for places and we have no idea what San Marino are playing at.
Group E - There will be a collective holding of breathe in England on Saturday when Russia faces Israel. A Russian win and the English players can book tee times and Steve McClaren can start mailing his CV to former republics of the Soviet Union. Although England needs to rely on Israel for help the English media stands charged with capitulation. Surely they could wait until death is official.
Croatia only needs a draw in Macedonia although that might be more of a challenge than most realize. Croatia needed two second half goals to erase a 1-0 deficit to Macedonia the first time they played (da Silva with an 88th minute winner) and only Russia with 2-0 and 3-0 wins have handled Macedonia with relative ease.
Group F – Sweden and Spain have almost made it with Northern Ireland and Denmark’s hopes hanging by a gossamer thin thread. Two draws for Spain (home to Sweden then Northern Ireland) will do it while the Swedes need just a single point from their last two matches.
Group G – Romania, along with Croatia, go into the last two rounds as the only two undefeated countries. Romania’s campaign started with a “disappointing” 2-2 home draw with Bulgaria. Disappointing in as much as Romania led 2-0 with eight minutes left. On Saturday Romania travels to Sofia for what fourteen months ago looked like it would be a crucial match. However, two draws against Albania largely put paid to Bulgarian hopes and Holland needs only one point from games against Luxembourg (h) and Belarus (a) in order to join Romania.
COMNEBOL World Cup Qualifying Notes
Argentina v. Bolivia - Javier Zanetti will earn his 116th cap and become Argentina's most capped international if he plays in this match. Bolivia’s last away win in WC qualifying came 14 years ago when they beat Venezuela 7-1. In their last 27 away games Bolivia have picked up only three draws.
Colombia v. Venezuela – It’s almost as if Colombia’s campaign has yet to start. They are unbeaten but have yet to win a game. They have not been scored on but have not scored either.
Peru v. Brazil – Another poor start for Peru who made their last WC appearance in1982. Only one point from their opening two games and they have yet to score a goal (0-0 at home to Paraguay and lost 2-0 to Chile).
Uruguay v. Chile - Both countries consider themselves as legitimate contenders for a top four spot and head-to-head games will be important in the final outcome. In 2006 qualifying Chile won 5 matches but all were against countries that finished in 8th, 9th and the bottom spot.
Paraguay v. Ecuador – Ecuador qualifiers for the last two finals, have made a horrible start, losing 1-0 at home to Venezuela and 5-0 in Brazil. Two veterans have been dropped Ivan Hurtado (145 caps) and right back Ulises de la Cruz (98 caps).
Midweek games - Brazil v. Uruguay, Ecuador v. Peru, Venezuela v. Bolivia, Colombia v. Argentina and Chile v. Paraguay.
In their second ever game Toronto went to Gillette Stadium and looked awful in losing 4-0. Nearly ten weeks on TFC returned to the same scene and produced another dreadful performance. Even though this loss was by a goal less it was arguably a worse result than the one back in April given that the Revolution were without three legitimate starters in Twellman, Ralston and Parkhurst.
The Toronto FC squad may have a threadbare look at the moment but with the exception of goalkeeper Greg Sutton, who continues to suffer from the repercussions of a concussion at the Gold Cup, but it was the recognized starting eleven that started and finished the match.
However, Toronto was simply never in the game with far too many players missing for large periods of the game. The Revolution was up by two with a little over thirty minutes gone and cruised through the rest of the match before a third goal with nine minutes left completed the scoring.
The first goal came after Avery John was given all sorts of time to cross into the heart of the Toronto defence. All it required was a routine bit of defending to deal with the cross. However, midfielder Carl Robinson (?) dropped to deep and missed the clearing header only for the ball to rebound from a surprised Kevin Goldthwaite to Andy Dorman who scored easily.
The second goal was remarkably similar in the obscene amount of time provided to Jeff Larentowicz. Larentowicz was allowed to control the ball, look up and pick out Pat Noonan as he arrived in the penalty to place a header past TFC keeper Djekanovic from about 12 yards.
The third New England goal looked good but again Toronto’s defence was poor as Smith, Christman and Dorman combined to set up the midfielder for a deuce and his third goal in two games against Toronto.
Recently retired FIFA Vice President David Will gives his view on the world governing body. I remember when Will was the chairman of Brechin City - at that time Brechin were usually battling out with East Stirlingshire as the worst team in Scotland. Even then when I played against Brechin in a mid-season friendly - our ground was one of the few playable in the area - we lost 5-2. There was a noticeable gulf between a very good amateur team and a poor professional team.
Rangers fans are frustrated at the lack of transfer activity. However, DaMarcus Beasley is noted as a possible Ibrox target.
Graham Hunter believes that Fabio Capello’s fitness regime has given Real Madrid the edge in the chase for La Liga title.
Jonathan Northcroft on Sam Allardyce’s first efforts to turn Newcastle around.
Hugh McIlvanney on the resurrection of David Beckham and England’s Euro 2008 hopes.
Simon Turnbull with a look at the man who won the FA Cup for Sunderland in 1974, Ian Porterfield. Porterfield is currently in charge of Armenia and is battling cancer. He spent time at Chelsea as well as ####mp;T.
Nick Harris with a very un-English view of MLS albeit with some factual errors.
Thanks for all the feedback and suggestions on the blog last week. Please do not hesitate to post links to your own blogs when you post something.
Cup football dominates in Britain this weekend with semi finals of the FA Cup and Scottish Cup being played on Saturday and Sunday. Watford’s chances of putting one over on United might come down to United suffering a hangover from the 7-1 annihilation of Roma. The news that Ronaldo has signed a five year contract extension is great but not unexpected news for United fans.
Watford and Manchester United have only met three times in the FA Cup, with Watford winning the last meeting 1-0 in 1982. While United have faced Premiership sides each step of the way, Watford have only come across top flight opposition once and that was West Ham. Three of Watford’s four wins have been 1-0’s.
The other semi has Chelsea facing rugged Blackburn Rovers. On the face of it Chelsea have a more difficult task than Manchester United although Rovers’ form since reaching the last four has been pretty awful. However, Blackburn have only conceded one goal in five Cup games and in Brad Friedel they have a goalkeeper who is capable on the day of stymieing the best of teams. Chelsea can look to three wins over Blackburn this season, all achieved without a goal being conceded.
In Scotland Celtic are looking to make it to their 4th final in 6 years. First Division St. Johnstone (currently trailing last season’s Cup runners-up Gretna) are the opposition. These teams have met 5 times in the Scottish Cup with St Johnstone’s only win coming 71 years ago. St Johnstone have never appeared in a Scottish Cup Final and if they are to cause an upset it will likely be on account of ####mp;T international Jason Scotland who has scored 25 goals this season.
Hibs fans don’t need reminding that they last won the Scottish Cup in 1902 and are looking to make their second trip to Hampden Park for a final this season – they beat Kilmarnock in the CIS Cup Final a few weeks ago. The opposition is Dunfermline who finds themselves in a similar position to Watford although there are signs that the Pars may conspire to escape the clutches of relegation. Dunfermline beat Hibs 2-0 in the 1965 semi and went on and lost to Celtic in the final.
With United and Chelsea on Cup duty it is relegation match-ups front and centre in the Premiership. The biggest game is West Ham playing Sheffield United at Bramall Lane. West Ham are on a roll although it may still turn out to be too late. They have won their last three Premiership game including two away from home against Blackburn Rovers and Arsenal. On the other hand Sheffield United have lost three league games in a row, have only picked up one point in their last five games and face Manchester United and Charlton after this game. Without Rob Hulse who has contributed nearly one third of United’s goals it is difficult to see where United’s goals are going to come from.
Everton and Charlton are two of the hottest team sin the Premiership at the moment and are both unbeaten in their last six games. Charlton have had four consecutive clean sheets – 5 in their last 6 - and have reached a position where by they no longer have to hope that other results go there way in order to avoid the dreaded drop. However, remember that Charlton still have only one away win this season at that came at Portsmouth.
Other matches with relegation implications have Wigan at home to Spurs and Reading at home to Fulham who will have new manager Lawrie Sanchez in charge.
In MLS Kansas City make their 2007 league debut at DC United who lost their season opener last weekend in chilly (this is coming from someone in Winnipeg!!) Denver. DC looked very uninspired and perhaps suffering from their Champions League exertions against Chivas Guadalajara.
KC Wizards signed former Boro midfielder Carlos Marinelli although he is unlikely to see action for a couple of weeks because of fitness concerns. Marinelli, who is now 25, made his Premiership debut as a 17-year-old against Sheffield Wednesday on Boxing Day 1999. In 43 starting and substitute appearance in the Premiership the Argentine midfielder scored three goals.
Other notable games include Toronto FC away to New England, and two teams that won their seasons openers play in Denver – Colorado Rapids and Chicago Fire. For Toronto fans it will be a second look at their new team and particular attention will be paid to the effort over the full ninety minutes. The promise of last weekend’s first thirty minutes against Chivas only flattered to deceive as the side wilted badly in the last 2/3rds of the game.
Inter Milan are looking to continue their march to a second straight Serie A title when they face a badly slumping Palermo. Palermo are struggling with the loss of striker Amauri through injury and have taken only ten points from a possible thirty-six. A win over Palermo, and another against second-placed AS Roma next Wednesday, would bring the title for Inter with six games left.
Spain has some mouth watering encounters this weekend. After rolling over and dying in midweek against Chelsea, Valencia desperately needs to beat Sevilla in order to stay in contention for the title. A loss for Valencia would leave them at least 8 points behind the leaders with 8 games to go. Valencia have taken just four points from a possible 12 and will face Real Madrid away next week. In turn Sevilla must play Real Madrid at the Bernabeu on May 6.
Racing Santander versus Real Madrid has two of Spain’s form teams going head-to-head. Santander are coached by former Real Madrid reserve team coach Miguel Angel Portugal and are on a seven-match unbeaten streak with ex-Real player Pedro Munitis (4 goals) and giant Serbian Nikola Zigic (10 goals) proving to be a handful for opposition defenses. Santander have also moved into contention for a UEFA Cup spot
Real Madrid, despite so many drab performances, are very much in contention and continue to apply heat to league leaders Barcelona who find themselves 11 points off of last season’s pace. Barcelona leads Sevilla by a single point with Real Madrid a point further behind. Of the top three teams Barcelona looks to have the easiest run-in with a trip to Atletico Madrid (their bogey team) the most difficult challenge.
Enjoy the weekend action and feel free to comment!
Not surprisingly the pace of transfer and loan moves has accelerated in the last forty-eight hours. If the story is confirmed by the Hammers then pride of place has to go to West Ham who looked to have pulled off the biggest double move since Ossie Ardilles and Ricardo Villa moved to Spurs after the 1978 World Cup. It is being reported that Carlos Tevez and Javier Mascherano are to move to Upton Park on a season long loan with an option to make permanent. No one saw this one coming - an absolute stunner.
Some other moves that have been confirmed.
Ricardo Oliveira from Real Betis to Milan with Johann Vogel moving in the opposite direction.
Juan Pablo Sorin to Hamburg from Villarreal.
Andy Cole joins English club number 8 as he leaves Manchester City for Portsmouth. Harry Rednapp seems intent on building football's version of Dad's Army at Fratton Park.
Jonathon Woodgate on loan to Boro from Real Madrid.
Steed Malbranque - Fulham to Spurs with Wayne Routledge on loan to Fulham for a season.
Tommy Smith from Derby County and returns to Watford.
Nacho Novo to Coventry, from Rangers
Rangers have signed Sasa Papac from Austria Vienna
Aberdeen has let Stevie Crawford move back to Dunfermline.
Dwight Yorke to Sunderland from Sydney FC.
Some deals rumoured to still be in the works at 9:30EST
Chelsea and something big - yes bigger than Robert Huth to Boro from Chelsea.
Jose Antonio Reyes and Julio Baptista swithching clubs (Arsenal / Real Madrid)
Kevin Kilbane - Everton to Wigan
Graham Kavanaugh - Wigan to Roy Keane's Sunderland
Damarcus Beasley from PSV to Manchester City (consider this one as unsubstantiated)
James Milner to Aston Villa from Newcastle
Patrick Kluivert to PSV from Valencia.
Florent Sinama Pongolle on loan to Recreativo de Huelva from Liverpool.
Highly speculative.
Ronaldo from Real Madrid to Inter Milan with Adriano going in the opposite direction.
Ivan Helguera and Roberto Ayala a swap between Real Madrid and Valencia.
Gabriele Marcotti takes a look at Jose Pekerman, Coach of Argentina, and the play of Javier Mascherano. Mascherano shone at the 2004 Copa America and it looks as if he has only improved.
Michael Grant looks at England's progress so far and includes a comment from former England star Trevor Steven on ####mp;T's Chris Birchall outplaying Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard.
A piece on Guus Hiddink and his Australian charges.
I just lost another blog. Ten minutes left and England is pushing but ####mp;T is holding firm.
Crouch gets the goal. A deep ball to the back post and Crouch towers above Brent Sancho and scores from about six yards. Should Hislop have come for the cross? I'm not sure.
Relief more than celebration abounds.
Gerrard seals it with a rasping drive from 20 yards.
Stern John scores but he is offside.
The scoreline is England 2-0 Trinidad and Tobago but that does not tell the story.
England was woeful, ####mp;T can leave the game with heads held high.
Beckham wastes a free kick. England needs a get out a jail card here.
Looks as if Sven has taken a page from the Jurgen Klinsmann play book.
Yesterday it was feed Odonkor - today get the ball to Aaron Lennon.
Ashley Cole is beginning to get involved as well. Trinidad & Tobago is keeping their composure. Comfortable on the ball and making sure they are clearing their lines.
Chris Birchall has been immense today for ####mp;T.
Are we 45 minutes away from a sensational draw.....or will ####mp;T recover to win?
I'm sure that all the old doubts about England are beginning to float to the surface of even the commited England fans.
Rooney and Lennon are up and warming up.
This England performance is so lifeless someone should call a priest.
Crouch has taken the robot dance to heart has decided to incorporate it into his play. He's having a stinker and it's not limited to him.
Free kick to England and a yellow card for Cyd Gray. Best chance for England as Owen gets free from the resulting free kick and fails to hit the target.
Rooney is on -please feel free to comment SAF - and so is Lennon. Owen and Carragher are off.
We are into stoppage time. Three minutes to be added. The Swedish horns have visibility wilted over the last 90 minutes. Sweden looks set to become the Scotland of the 2006 World Cup.
Whistle goes and unbelievably ####mp;T draw with Sweden and a nation will explode with joy. Another nation will probably just explode. Lars Lagerback will probably have to knock back a few lagers tonight.
A historic day with so many outstanding performances from ####mp;T. Hislop brilliant, Lawrence a giant, Yorke the savy veteran, Stern John tireless. My man of the match - Carlos Edwards. He covered every blade of grass up and down the right side. What a performance.
Lagerback has left it late before taking off his holding midfield player Linderoth. What is with conservative Swedish coaches? Kallstrom is on in his place. Another chance drops to Allback and Hislop (former Baltimore Blast player) pulls off another great save!
If Ecuador's win was an earth tremor a ####mp;T-Sweden draw would be an earthquake - on second thoughts I'm in LA and perhaps I shouldn't be mentioning the big E word!
Another chance for Sweden as the ball is played across an open goal and then Edwards again makes a great saving tackle.
The Swedish pressure is constant but the####mp;T defense is bending but so far they have not broken.
Last five minutes - England and Paraguay fans are rooting for ####mp;T. Come to think of it everyone except Sweden are hoping ####mp;T hold on.
Well so much for Samuel making a difference with his speed - although he moved quite quickly to the sideline as Cornell Glen (LA Galaxy) replaced him. Glen makes an immediate impression as he rattles the crossbar. Hislop pulls off a stunning save just after Ibrahimovic throws an elbow out at the excellent Carlos Edwards of Luton.
Allback on for Svensson and Sweden go with three up front. Swedish sphincters are tightening!
Sweden is , not surprisingly, dominating this one although they have yet to create a clear chance. When ####mp;T get the ball forward Stern John is isolated. ####mp;T will be happy the longer the game stays at 0-0.
No real surprises in the line up except for the fact that Shaka Hislop is in the ####mp;T goal instead of Kelvin Jack. Unfortunately nobody has told the ABC commentating crew who are revering to Jack despite Hislop's name being prominently displayed on his goalie uniform.
However, they have just made up for that by telling me the population of Trinidad versus Tobago.
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites.
Thank you to all who take time to visit this blog and especially to those of you who post your comments and thoughts.
PS - If you have questions please post them on the regular Monday blog. I am unable to answer e mails posted to the inbox on this site.
And one more thing. If you have questions or complaints or compliments about programming please contact Fox Soccer Channel or Fox Sports World Canada directly. I have no control over what the stations televise.
