Here is the original synopsis and predictions for 2007/08 revisited with the addition of the final finishes, the highs and the lows and a couple of semi interesting statistics. So here is an opportunity to share my gaffs and a couple of thoughts that were reasonably close. And before some of you laugh too hard I will be linking back to the original comments and predictions that were posted back in August 2007 once the Whoops signal stops appearing.
Arsenal
Synopsis – If Arsenal is going to better last season’s record then there are two areas ripe for improvement. The first is their record against lower half opposition – last season Arsenal only won half of these games. The other is to get their noses in front. Last season Arsenal gave up the first goal in twenty Premiership games and although they collected 22 points in these matches (more than any other club) a repeat performance would nix any chance they might have of pushing the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United.
Arsenal needs to improve defensively – particularly on cross balls – and the wide midfield players (Rosicky, Hleb and possibly Eboue) need to chip in with goals. Gunner fans will be looking for Robin Van Persie to establish himself as a top rate striker while new arrival Eduardo Da Silva (work permit granted) needs to show that he can replicate his Dynamo Zagreb form at a higher level.
The departure of Thierry Henry has set off a wave of “Arsenal-in-decline” stories – don’t be surprised if his departure has the reverse effect.
Season’s narrative – Can Arsenal prosper without Thierry Henry?
Prediction–3rd. Actual–3rd. High – 1st Low – 7th
Stat Facts – An improvement of 15 points from last season (5 at home, 10 away) and the highest ever total points recorded by a team finishing 3rd in the Premiership.
Bolton
Synopsis – Although Sam Allardyce resigned before the end of last season this really is the start of the post big-Sam era. His replacement Sammy Lee has to prove that he can successfully move from his coaching position to the number one job – something that others have failed to accomplish at other clubs.
At first blush Lee appears to be mimicking the eclectic mix that was so successful under Allardyce. Arrivals from Europe (Cid, Dzemalli and Harsanyi), a veteran English midfielder written off by others (McCann), an underachieving defender (Samuel) and a bustling hard-working striker who to date has failed to make his mark in the Premiership (Helguson). Toss in a loan deal for Christian Wilhelmsson and you have very much the same recipe albeit with a different cook.
Bolton never dropped lower than 8th all last season in the Premiership - a repeat would be a remarkable achievement.
Season’s narrative – Can Little Sam make Bolton fans forget Big Sam?
Prediction – 15th Actual – 16th High – 13th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Bolton experienced the largest loss in points season over season – 20 fewer than in 2006/07. An unbeaten run of five matches at season’s end that earned Bolton eleven points brought salvation. To generate the points Bolton scored only six goals but conceded only two – just like old times at the Reebok.
Middlesbrough
Synopsis – In the last five seasons Boro has been as high as 7th and as low as 14th. Based on this summer’s moves the team is more likely to finish closer to 14th than 7th.
For all the abuse that is heaped on him Mark Viduka has been a remarkably consistent scorer since he arrived in English football from Celtic in 2000. He has average better than two goals every five game while with Leeds and Boro and that sort of rate is not going to be easy to replace.
Based on past performances Jeremie Aliadiere doesn’t look like an adequate replacement – even though Gareth Southgate has apparently been impressed by the Frenchman’s hunger. Tuncay Sanli is an interesting addition but he would not be the first striker to find the non-stop pace of the Premiership difficult to adapt to.
The scoring load will probably fall on the shoulders of the often transfer-rumored Yakubu Ayegbeni. So far Boro has denied that they are willing to allow him to leave should another club come in with a bid. Boro supporters should hope that the Nigerian striker stays put because without him Middlesbrough might be fighting relegation. With Yakubu a reasonably comfortable lower mid-table position is probably in the cards.
Season’s narrative – Can Boro breakout of mid-table mediocrity?
Prediction – 13th Actual – 13th High – 10th Low - 18th
Stat Facts – Not a head for heights? Boro spent one week in the top ten and only four weeks the season before. Middlesbrough finished the season with two consecutive wins – something they only accomplished one other time during the season – in December they beat Arsenal and Derby County.
Fulham
Synopsis – Lawrie Sanchez has spent a good part of the summer spending money. However, Sanchez may have added to the squad depth but he may not have significantly improved the starting eleven.
Fulham start their season at the Emirates Stadium against Arsenal and a win will equal their away record over the last two seasons. Not hard when the last two seasons have only brought about a win in each. On the road last season Fulham conceded more away goals (42) than any other Premiership club and finished the 2007 season with the longest current run of matches without scoring more than a single goal in a Premiership game – 12.
They also own the current longest sequence since winning by more than a single goal. Fifty Premiership games have come and gone since a 6-1 win over West Brom in February 2006.
Season’s narrative – Will the money spent turnout to be well spent?
Prediction – 18th Actual – 17th High – 9th Low – 19th
Stat Facts – Fulham threw away 27 points from winning positions this season. However, they did finish the season with four wins in their last five matches. The four wins accounted for half of the three-pointers they collected all season. They also finished with three consecutive away wins. Prior to that they had no away wins in 16 games and had only won twice away from home in the last two seasons.
Birmingham
Synopsis – There are very few holdovers from the side that was relegated at the end of the 2006 season. Lat summer Steve Bruce cleaned house and it led to promotion. Twelve months on and has been busy once more. In midfield Fabrice Muamba is now a permanent fixture after spending last season at St. Andrews on loan from Arsenal. He’s joined in midfield by French international Olivier Kapo (5th team since 2004). Gary McSheffrey proved to be a shrewd acquisition from Coventry City in August 2006 and he could be set to make an impression in the Premiership.
Up front Gary O’Connor will be looked to for goals after signing from Lokomotiv Moscow although Nicolas Bendtner (returned to Arsenal after a loan spell) will be missed. Birmingham conceded the second fewest goals in the Championship last season but Bruce has given himself some new options. Only Bruno N’Gotty has left while Ridgewell, Queudrue, Parnaby and Brazilian Schmitz (presently carrying an injury) have been added. Ghanaian World Cup goalkeeper Richard Kingson has signed although it is not clear whether Steve Bruce sees him as a replacement or back up for Colin Doyle.
Casting a potential shadow over the club is the ownership ambition of Hong Kong businessman Carson Yeung. Yeung has already bought 30% of the club and has plans to acquire the remaining shares. Full control for Yeung combined with a poor start and Birmingham may become the Hearts of the EPL.
Season’s narrative – Has Steve Bruce learned lessons from Birmingham’s relegation in 2006?
Prediction – 17th Actual – 19th High – 11th Low – 19th
Stat Facts – If half time results had held Birmingham would have finished in a comfortable 10th position. Only Derby County finished with fewer away points while the Birmingham defense only kept three clean sheets all season – a record shared with Derby County.
Liverpool
Synopsis – Last season’s challenge for the league was almost over before it began as Liverpool faltered out of the gate. That, combined with poor away form that brought only six wins away from Anfield negated an excellent home record. If Liverpool is to challenge for the league title then a strong start is mandatory.
Based on the moves that Rafa Benitez has made this summer he must be happy with his defense. Torres, Babel, Benayoun and Voronin have all been brought to Anfield to either score or create goals. Lucas Leiva arrives with a great reputation although he will have a difficult time breaking into the Liverpool midfield.
With Fernando Torres carrying the mantle of the Premiership’s most expensive summer signing most of the spotlight will be on the Spaniard. Views on the striker are polarized – the naysayers point to his average of around two goals every five games for Atletico Madrid. His supporters are quick to indicate that he is only 23-years-old and his Atletico strike rate is impressive given the club’s overall goal tally.
Liverpool finished 21 points behind the champions Manchester United last season and it will need a Herculean effort to close that gap.
Season’s narrative – Can Fernando Torres deliver the goals that Liverpool need?
Prediction – 4th Actual – 4th High – 1st Low – 9th
Stat Facts – Liverpool tied with Blackburn Rovers and Tottenham Hotspur for the most draws – 13. Only Manchester United scored more home goals than Liverpool (47 to 43). Ironically Liverpool gained four fewer points at home this season compared with last campaign although away points went from 22 to 34.
Fernando Torres became the first Liverpool player to score 20 Premiership goals since Robbie Fowler over a decade ago. What’s more of his 24 markers only one came from a set-piece. No other player scored more Premiership goals this season from open play.
Reading
Synopsis – Last summer critics were aghast when manager Steve Coppell decided to keep faith with the players that had secured promotion for Reading. When the Premiership kicked off last season not one Reading player had top flight experience in England.
However, Coppell’s gut instinct was spot on and Reading cruised through their first ever season in the Premiership. Once again, manager Steve Coppell appears to be largely content with his Reading squad.
Full back Emerse Fae was signed late last week from relegated side Nantes for a record club fee and joins another French defender Kalifa Cisse signed from Portuguese club Boavista. Leaving the Madjeski Stadium are little used full back Greg Halford (only signed from Colchester in January but sold on to Sunderland at a $2M+ profit) and influential midfielder Steve Sidwell (Chelsea on a Bosman transfer). The question of how and who will replace Sidwell (former Arsenal player) is still to be answered.
Last season Kevin Doyle carried much of scoring load with 13 league goals and although no other Reading player hit double figures 13 other players did chip in with goals through the Premiership season. Leroy Lita enjoyed a good run of scoring with six of his seven goals coming during and just after the Xmas period. Fellow striker Dave Kitson only managed two goals although he missed almost six months of the season after being injured on the opening day of last season.
Season’s narrative – Can Reading avoid the second-season jinx?
Prediction – 11th Actual – 18th High – 7th Low – 18th
Stat Facts – Reading only picked two points after being in a losing position – tied with Everton. The bottom fell out of Reading’s season both home and away. Compared to last season they collected 9 fewer points at home and 10 fewer away from home. The swing in goal difference – from +5 a year ago to -25 this May.
Blackburn
Synopsis – If Blackburn can hold on to the likes of Benni McCarthy and Morten Gant Pederson by the time the transfer closes then the pre-season can be regarded as a success. The form of McCarthy and Pederson last season was key contributors to a midway league finish and an FA Cup run that finished with an extra time semi final loss to Chelsea. Given the injuries to a number of key players last season it was a remarkable achievement by Mark Hughes’ side.
The arrival of goalkeeper Gunnar Nielsen may be more about Blackburn planning for a time when Brad Friedel will no longer be patrolling the penalty area while Maceo Rigters joins the club on the back of a series of great performances at this summers UEFA under-21 Championship.
Roque Santa Cruz arrives at Ewood Park with a great reputation but one that is not supported by the stats. A goal every five games for Bayern Munich is a disappointing return for a player who appears to have all the right tools. A resurrection at Ewood Park or a stop on the way to lower level obscurity?
Doubtless Blackburn will be as feisty as last season although a reduction in the number of penalties conceded (11) and red cards received (5) might help them.
Season’s narrative – Can Benni McCarthy maintain his spectacular form of last season?
Prediction – 9th
Actual – 7th High – 3rd Low – 10th
Stat Facts – Blackburn fought back from losing positions to pick up an additional 20 points – only Arsenal with 21 points was better. Blackburn only dropped six points (3 draws) at home to bottom half of the table teams.
West Ham United
Synopsis – A good number of players have come and gone since last season’s great escape but most of the attention this summer has been on Carlos Tevez. Now that Tevez has finally left West Ham fans can now focus their attention on the new season.
Manager Alan Curbishley has opted to strengthen the midfield and attack while keeping largely keeping faith with the defenders. Scott Parker will be reunited with his old Charlton boss and Freddie Ljunberg can still contribute goals if he can stay fit. However, French midfielder Julien Faubert will have to wait another six months at least before seeing Premiership action after rupturing an Achilles tendon in a warm up match.
The loss of striker Dean Ashton for almost all of last season to injury was a devastating blow to West Ham and hopes are high that Ashton’s injury woes are a thing of the past. He scored against his former club Norwich in a friendly match last week. A partnership with the fleet-footed Craig Bellamy might be a source of much needed goals for the Hammers.
Season’s narrative – Can West Ham bounce back from a traumatic 2006/07 season?
Prediction – 14th
Actual – 10th High – 5th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – In total West Ham spent 24 weeks and 18 out of the last 19 weeks in 10th spot. West Ham only won two consecutive games once this season – in September 3-0 wins over Reading and Middlesbrough.
Sunderland
Synopsis – Roy Keane was the story of last season’s Coca cola Championship and is likely to be one of the stories of this season’s Premiership. When he arrived a drop into League One looked to be a more realistic prospect than promotion back to the Premiership. But Keane set about the task of reinvigorating one of the great teams of years past.
Over twenty players were signed or moved on as Sunderland moved from 23rd spot to league champions. Keane has also endeavored to change the club culture as he insisted on pictures and mementos of past triumphs be displaced around the stadium and kyboshed the idea of the club publicly “celebrating” the promotion.
With only two players shipping out so far it looks as if Keane is intent on improving the depth of his player pool while focusing on younger players who should, in theory, still have room to improve.
Kieron Richardson should get a chance to nail down a consistent starting position after only spot duty with Manchester United. Michael Chopra returns to the North-East only twelve months after leaving Newcastle for Cardiff City. Chopra had been unable to break into the Newcastle starting line-up but 22 goals for Cardiff in the Championship last season had many questioning Newcastle’s decision to give up on the 23-year-old.
Centre half Russell Anderson is an intriguing buy for only $2M from Aberdeen. The 28-year-old has up to now played his entire career with Aberdeen and developed into one most consistent players in Scotland. Many believe that if Anderson had opted to move to a bigger club earlier in his career his he would have been capped more than nine times for his country.
Season’s narrative – Shaped by Brian Clough and Sir Alex Ferguson is Roy Keane the next great Premiership manager?
Prediction – 16th Actual – 15th High – 4th Low – 19th
Stat Facts –Sunderland may have been one of six teams that failed to collect 40 points but they still gained more points this season than in their two previous Premiership incarnations combined. Sunderland did however have the longest losing sequence of any Premiership team away from home with 10.
Manchester United
Synopsis – Sir Alex Ferguson has made a career out of proving his critics wrong so it would foolhardy to predict that United will not retain the title won last season. However, the planets really did align for United in 2006/07. Vidic established himself as the type of physical centre back United had been missing since the long ago departure of Jaap Stam; Paul Scholes orchestrated from the midfield rolling back the years as he gathered, prompted and dissected; Ryan Giggs was another who enjoyed an Indian Summer; Cristiano Ronaldo became the best player in the Barclay’s Premiership.
Can it happen again? Owen Hargreaves has been brought in to provide a more solid defensive shield in midfield while Nani and Anderson look to be the heirs to Scholes and Giggs. The “loan” of Carlos Tevez has now been settled and he will add some extra fire power up front - an extremely exciting addition to the Old Trafford staff. On paper United have strengthened the midfield and attack. However, should Gabriel Heinze be granted his wish to move then United’s back four might be a bit more susceptible to an injuries and/or suspensions.
Season’s narrative – How will Sir Alex Ferguson integrate all his attacking options while ensuring that the backdoor remains bolted?
Prediction – 2nd Actual – 1st High – 1st Low – 16th
Stat Facts – United spent 17 weeks in top spot and maintained that position from round 29 onwards. They claimed 52 of a possible 57 points at home dropping to Reading in the first game of the season and losing to Manchester City. United only conceded three goals in the last ten minutes of Premiership games this season – William Gallas (Arsenal 2-2), Matthew Upson (West Ham 2-1 loss) and a penalty from Michael Ballack (Chelsea 2-1) loss.
Everton
Synopsis – One look at the last five seasons should have Everton fans cringing as new season approaches. Each good season has been followed by disappointment and after last season’s sixth place finish a drop is in the cards.
However, if the Toffees can match last season’s performance of not losing more than two consecutive games then things may not turn out so bad. Moyes will also be eyeing the 13 games that finished as draws last season as a possible area for improvement.
With James Vaughn out for an extended period Everton may still make a move for a striker should one become available. The arrival of Steven Pienaar on loan should add more depth and a bit of goal scoring (15 goals in little less than 100 games during his time with Ajax) to the midfield. He will join the likes of Manuel Fernandez, Mikel Arteta and Tim Cahill in a midfield that if it is gels could be a stand-out in the league.
David Moyes will probably slot Phil Jagielka (from Sheffield United) into a back four that improved significantly as last season progressed.
Season’s narrative – Will Everton slip again? Prediction – 8th Actual – 5th High – 1st Low – 10th
Stat Facts – Everton only picked up two points over the entire season after being in a losing position but finished their highest ever Premiership points total. In the last four season’s Everton has finished 4th, 11th, 6th and 5th.
Aston Villa
Synopsis – Last season Villa may have finished 11th in the Premiership but they needed a nine-game unbeaten run at the end of the season to avoid a relegation dogfight. Martin O’Neill may achieved his initial objective of making Villa a difficult team to beat (only ten losses in thirty-eight games) but if his side is up the table then a good number of last season’s league high 17 draws need to turn into wins. That means more goals are needed from the strikers and from the midfield. Another ten goals and the defense holding firm could mean a move into the top six.
The jury is still out on John Carew (7 clubs in 9 seasons) but the arrival of Marlon Harewood gives O’Neill another option up front. O’Neill has under whelmed most Villa fans with the signing of Harewood but remember this is the same manager that resurrected the career of Chris Sutton. Gabriel Agbonlahor was a revelation last season but he may find that the second season is harder than the first. Nigel Reo-Coker will replace Gavin McCann and should bring more vigour and pace to the centre of the Villa midfield.
Villa had the sixth best defensive record last season but there is still room for improvement. An injury free season for Martin Laursen (he’s averaged less than 10 games a season since arriving from Milan in the summer of 2004) would certainly help while O’Neill may yet sign another goalkeeper to compete with Thomas Sorenson.
Overall the departures far exceed the arrivals at Villa Park which might lead us to conclude that Martin O’Neill is willing to go with some younger players.
Season’s narrative – With money going unspent will it turn out to be a false economy by Martin O’Neill?
Prediction – 6th Actual – 6th High – 5th Low – 17th
Stat Facts – Villa finished as the Premiership’s third top scorers behind Manchester United and Arsenal with 71 goals scored. Last season they scored 43 times. The extra goals (although they also conceded 10 more) helped them to five more wins than last season although their losses (10) remained the same.
Newcastle
Synopsis – Where do you start when it comes to Newcastle United? An incredibly well-supported club inadequately led over the years by bungling directors and often managers, is as good a place to start as any. But since the end of last season the club has been bought by Mike Ashley (although there is no guarantee that he will be any better than the others who have come before) and Sam Allardyce has taken over the managerial reins. But even then there have been consistent rumours that Allardyce would not have been the new owner’s pick had he been able to start with a clean slate.
As it is Allardyce has indicated that he is still in the market for some experienced players but even without any additional moves the spine of this team looks much stronger. New arrivals Czech defender David Rozehnal and Brazilian Cacapa will probably be the first choice centre back pairing while Joey Barton will become the fulcrum of the midfield. Up front Viduka and Smith (reunited after playing together at Leeds) will provide some added presence to a front line that was on the small side last season. Martins and Owen (depending on the combination) should benefit from the addition of Viduka and Smith.
Increased goal production is a priority for a team that was shut-out 17 times last season, and 16 times the season before.
Season’s narrative – Can Sam Allardyce bring real hope and progress to the long suffering Newcastle faithful?
Prediction – 10th Actual – 12th High – 1st Low – 14th
Stat Facts – In 2006/07 Newcastle enjoyed the 7th best record against teams in the top ten. This season they collected only 10 points from top half teams. But Newcastle still finished with the same number of points as last season (43) and improved their overall standing by one place.
Derby
Synopsis – Wining the Premiership play off is always a cause for great celebration but it soon dissipates as the challenge of staying in the top league sinks in. Manager Billy Davies has some good young players in the squad but overall it looks awfully like a squad built to do well in the Championship rather than the Premiership.
Robert Earnshaw (Derby’s record signing) will have another chance (he was with West Brom from 2004 to 2006) to show that can score goals regularly in the Premiership (to date 12 goals in 43 appearances) as he has done in the Championship (19 last season in an injury affected season). Steve Howard (16 goals) will likely team up with Earnshaw in attack.
Centre back Claude Davis who was relegated with Sheffield United last season is another player to be given a chance to prove his worth in the top flight.
Season’s narrative – How many times will Derby be described as gallant losers?
Prediction – 19th Actual – 20th High – 7th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Derby County now owns almost every Premiership record for futility.
Chelsea
Synopsis – Peace has broken out at Stamford Bridge. The enemy, for the moment at least, is the other nineteen teams of the Barclay’s Premiership and on paper this is the strongest squad that Mourinho has had since his arrival in the summer of 2004.
If Petr Cech can avoid injury it will only add to a defense that led the Premiership with 22 clean sheets. The on-going right back problem may remain although rumours persist that Sevilla’s Daniel Alves is on his way to Stamford Bridge. A work permit has been granted for Alex so the last season’s centre back crisis is less likely to reoccur - Tal Ben Haim as a squad player will also help.
That will allow Michael Essien to play is his more natural position in midfield with all the resulting benefits. The talk is a return to a 4-3-3 formation and if Mourinho decides to go that route then it is difficult to see how Michael Ballack and Andriy Shevchenko will fit in - essentially the same question as last year at this time.
Malouda was France’s player of the year and he carries a scoring threat. His work rate plus an ability to get past players makes him a great addition to the Chelsea squad. Given that Chelsea’s goal production dropped by 10 goals last season, more goals will be one of the critical factors if Chelsea is to make it a third Premiership title in four seasons.
Season’s narrative – Can Chelsea maintain focus and stop the in-fighting and strength sapping controversy?
Prediction - Champions Actual – 2nd High – 1st Low – 7th
Stat Facts – Chelsea only spent one week in first place – that came in round 4. Chelsea remains unbeaten at home for another season and collected exactly the same number of points as in 2006/07 – 43 points. Contrast these totals with the 55 points and 47 points they gained at home when winning the league in 2006 and 2005 and ironically you can see where Chelsea needs to improve. Chelsea’s impressive away form continued this season – 42 points from a possible 57 which is up two from the previous season.
Tottenham Hotspur
Synopsis – Martin Jol has been one of the busier managers this summer with another raft of new signings. Spurs’ start last season was woeful and they must find a way to integrate their new signings quickly if the hope to improve on their 5th place finish of the last two seasons.
When the team began to click last season goals were not a problem. Unfortunately as quick as Spurs could score them they let goals in as well. In all Premiership games involving Spurs produced 111 goals – more than any other Premiership team – but Spurs finished with a goal difference of only +3.
The return of a fully fit Ledley King will help plug the holes at the back and it is doubtful that England keeper Paul Robinson can produce back-to-back mediocre seasons. Younes Kaboul arrives with glowing recommendations. Youngster Gareth Bale (watch out for his free kicks) arrives from Southampton and is expected to solve the ongoing left back problem at White Hart Lane. However, there doesn’t appear to be a ready made solution at hand on the left side of midfield.
With a price tag of $35M the expectations for Darren Bent are justifiably high and many will be watching to see how Jol goes about fitting the former Charlton player into a strike force that already has Berbatov, Robbie Keane and Jermain Defoe pushing for a spot.
Season’s narrative – Can Spurs spending finally deliver some silverware as well as entertainment?
Prediction – 5th Actual – 11th High – 9th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Spurs set a record for points lost from a winning position – 33 over the season. They also gained 14 fewer points than they did twelve months ago and that means they have slipped 19 points from two seasons ago. This season saw Spurs participate in another galaxy of goals – this time their 38 games produced 127 (66-61) goals up from 111 (57-54) the season before.
Portsmouth
Synopsis - Pompey was the moved improved team last season so expectations have grown since the club just avoided relegation at the end of the 2006 season. Portsmouth’s improvement was almost exclusively on account of their form at Fratton Park. Sixteen more points were secured at home last season over the previous season and only the top four lost fewer home matches. Only three teams - Bolton, Charlton and Chelsea – left Fratton Park with full points. Harry Rednapp will focus on significantly improving Pompey’s away form which was poor last season - three wins and only 16 points was a poor return.
Pompey appears to have strengthened throughout their line up. Sylvain Distin is a good addition to the defense – particularly if Sol Campbell should up and leave – while Sulley Muntari and Arnold Mvuemba will join the likes of Gary O’Neil and Matthew Taylor in a workman like but effective midfield.
Although Kanu’s future at Fratton Park is still undecided the arrival of David Nugent and Nigerian John Utaka should add to Pompey’s goal scoring threat. These two could be become very important players at Portsmouth.
However, the signing of Hermann Hreidarsson should be enough to sober up any Pompey fans dreaming of 2008 glory. Since arriving in England in 1997 Hreidarsson has played for Crystal Palace, Brentford, Wimbledon, Ipswich and Charlton. Only Brentford escaped relegation while the Icelandic international was on the books.
Season’s narrative – Can Portsmouth become road warriors?
Prediction – 7th Actual – 8th High – 4th Low – 15th
Stat Facts – Portsmouth had the most consecutive wins away from home this season - 6. When opening the scoring Pompey was the only side with a 100% record 14 out of 14. But they did fail to find the mark 15 times - only Sunderland and Derby were worse. Even so Portsmouth improved on last season’s previous high water mark of a 9th place finish and 54 points with three more points and one place higher.
Manchester City
Synopsis – If City supporters felt as if they spent last season in purgatory, the good news is that miserable situation may get better. The bad news is that it might not get all that much better even though a lot of cash has been splashed this summer.
Sven Goran Eriksson, successful in Sweden, Italy and Portugal, has been throughout his career a counter-attacking coach and so the City Of Manchester Stadium may again be a ground where thrills are administered from a drip. However, given that City only scored ten goals at home all season and set a new top flight record for scoring futility in the process it really can’t get any worse.
Bulgarian Martin Petrov looks to be a good acquisition and Geovanni has been brought in to add some craft in the last third of the field. Since his move to Europe the 27-year-old has done little to fulfill his earlier promise – City might be his last chance. Swiss youngster Gelson Fernandes is another recruit and he will battle for a midfield spot.
Rolando Bianchi was a scoring sensation (18 goals) with Reggina last season but he has little else in his career to substantiate the fee of over $16M that City paid for his services. A few seasons ago when with Lecce Bulgarian Valeri Bozhinov was one of the great young up and coming players. Since then his career has been moving but more sideways than ahead. If the pairing can hit it off then City’s prospects will look a lot rosier. However that is a very big if.
Elano, Javier Garrido and Vedran Corluka were added at one fell swoop last week bringing new signings so far to 8 and not one English player amongst them. With Sylvain Distin off to Portsmouth, Eriksson will likely opt to move Micah Richards to centre back. Eriksson will focus on making his side more difficult to beat but from there on he may run out of ideas – on the field anyway.
Season’s narrative – Is the Manchester City secretarial pool safe?
Prediction – 12th Actual – 9th High – 1st Low – 9th
Stat Facts – Of the top ten teams only Manchester City show up in the bottom half of the “second-half” table. City matched their best ever Premiership placing of ninth and could have improved on that if that had been able to hold on to a modicum of their early season home form. City took a maximum twenty-seven points from their first nine matches at the City of Manchester Stadium but only ten points from their last ten games at home. Even so City finished with a season-to-season improvement of 13 points.
Wigan
Synopsis – Apart from a relegation saving final day of the season win over Sheffield United the latter part of last season is something that Wigan do not want to replicate. Last season Wigan took 18 points from their first 12 games; and 20 points from their other 26 games. They also conceded more goals at home (30) than any other team and suffered more losses at home than any other team in the Premiership – 10. And just for good measure Wigan led the Premiership in the unwanted category of points dropped from winning positions – a massive 26 points.
More than enough for new manager Chris Hutchings to work on you would think. He will be hoping that injury-dogged keeper Chris Kirkland stays. In front of Kirkland the arrival of Titus Bramble and Mario Melchiot is to say the least being met with some raised eyebrows.
Michael Brown brings his unique competitive (I’m being kind) qualities to the JJB along with former WBA midfielder Jason Koumas. Up front Antoine Sibierski is the only addition and it is doubtful that the 33-year-old Frenchman is suddenly going to become a regular goal scorer.
Season’s narrative – Who will replace Chris Hutchings when he is fired in November?
Prediction – 20th Actual – 14th High – 1st Low – 19th
Stat Facts – After spending nine of the first 24 rounds in the relegation zone Wigan “escaped” never to return over the remaining 14 rounds. With Steve Bruce in charge Wigan won eight, lost eight and drew eight.
Actual Prediction Manchester United 1 2 Chelsea 2 1 Arsenal 3 3 Liverpool 4 4 Everton 5 8 Aston Villa 6 6 Blackburn 7 9 Portsmouth 8 7 Manchester City 9 12 West Ham United 10 14 Tottenham Hotspur 11 5 Newcastle 12 10 Middlesbrough 13 13 Wigan 14 20 Sunderland 15 16 Bolton 16 15 Fulham 17 18 Reading 18 11 Birmingham 19 17 Derby 20 19
And finally I took a look back to your comments from August 2007.
From what I can see nobody got the top three correct let alone the top five although there were around ten of you that correctly chose United followed by Chelsea. The relegation predictions came no closer to reality. No one got all three right although there were a solid number of you who targeted Birmingham and Derby County.
For all of you who contributed thank you and a special award to andesras6292 who wrote on August 14, 2007 – “bobby your predictions suck. and anyone who think arsenal is going to finish top 3 are crazy the top 3 are going to be liv'pool chelsea and man utd not arsenal. and liv'pool are going to stink because torres isnt good at all i dont see whjat people see in him he cant even score a one on one. last game he missed world class chances and if he is world class he should have scored he is just a overpaid bad striker and isnt going to be good for liv'pool.”
andesras6292 – where ever you are – congratulations. You my friend, are without a doubt this blog’s version of Derby County 2007/08.
It will be interesting to see what sort of coverage and viewing figures the FA Cup semi-finals get when they go head-to-head with the Premiership this weekend. Portsmouth and Cardiff start as favourites but that is hardly an enviable position given the number of upsets in this season’s competition.
Portsmouth will probably bide their time looking for West Brom to push forward. Certainly there is no doubt about the Albion’s ability to score in the Championship (78 so far) but their defence does leak with 51 goals against in 40 games.
If you are a Barnsley supporter it must really be a case of nearly the best of times and nearly the worst of times – Barnsley have such a long history they have seen better and also worst. Even so their fantastic Cup wins over Liverpool and Chelsea have not earned them any easy points as they try to avoid the drop to League One.
One win in nine league games means that goal difference is the only thing keeping the Yorkshire team from the relegation zone. Cardiff harbours no such threat from relegation and have been able to maintain some decent league form during their Cup run to the point that they still retain a faint hope of securing a promotion play-off spot.
Prediction – West Brom vs. Cardiff in the Final.
The bookending of the Premiership match between Arsenal and Liverpool by the quarter final of the Champions League takes a bit of the sheen of this weekend’s game. Will the managers choose to rest some players or will it be a case of the same again. Wenger says he has not given up on the title and so if that is true then we should see little change. After creating a five point gap with Everton Liverpool will not want to risk that number shrinking.
With Boro and Manchester City having little to play for – City may look to have an outside chance of a UEFA Cup spot but not based on recent form – Manchester United and Chelsea will be hoping to increase the gap on Arsenal and Liverpool.
At the relegation end of the table Wigan vs. Birmingham, Fulham vs. Sunderland are six pointers while Newcastle (a much happier Newcastle) would like to keep Reading below them and Villa needs to stop a run of three straight losses (and shut outs) against Bolton.
Sevilla versus Villarreal has the makings of a top class game as does Mallorca against Real Madrid. Villarreal are the form team at the moment although there is a train of thought that when Villarreal gets into a position to really challenge for some silverware that is when it starts to go all wobbly for them.
Mallorca have only one loss in their last their last twelve although seven finished as draws. What’s more David Guiza is cracking goals in at the moment for Mallorca and they have been known to give Real Madrid problems – Real came a cropper in the Copa del Rey this season.
Although much of the attention will be on friendly internationals this Wednesday there are CONCACAF World Cup qualifiers. However, do not expect Anguilla to move on at the expense of El Salvador…..given the first leg score.
After the weekend’s play and as an update to the British bookies odds posted on Friday here is how they now stand.
To win the Premiership – Manchester United 2/7, Chelsea 7/2, Arsenal 9/1, Liverpool 500/1.
The Times feature on Fulham’s away form. St. James’ Park is about the only ground Fulham doesn’t mind traveling to. They have a split record of 2 wins, draws and losses in the Premiership and their two wins and one of the draws have come on their last three visits. Conversely Newcastle’s last win in the Premiership came over three months ago and it needed a late penalty kick to give Newcastle a 1-0 win over who else but Fulham.
Premiership This weekend’s Premiership fixture list has ten matches all of which have the potential to substantially change the race for the title, the scramble for Champions League/UEFA Cup spots, or the battle to avoid the dreaded drop.
There are numerous possibilities and of course one of which is that nothing very much will change. Even so it’s interesting to take a look at the various views of how things will work out with eight rounds of play to go.
The conventional wisdom in the media and on the chatboards seems to be that with a three point lead and a substantially better goal difference the league title is for Manchester United to lose. Arsenal’s four consecutive draws has put a dagger through the heart of their title aspirations while Chelsea could yet to slip in to win the Championship for the third time in four seasons.
Liverpool are the form team (and the team to fear in the Champions League) and will lock up the fourth Champions League spot. That will leave Everton with fifth and what may be the last remaining UEFA Cup place for next season. Aston Villa, Portsmouth (still have a very real interest in the FA Cup), Manchester City and Blackburn will be left on the outside looking in.
BBC pundit Alan Hansen seems to support the conventional view as far as the top four are concerned. Hansen states “if United beat Liverpool and Arsenal lose at Chelsea, Wenger can wave the title bye-bye in my opinion”. Early on in the article he says, “…..while Arsenal go to Stamford Bridge to play a Chelsea side who cannot yet be discounted when it comes to the title.”
When you consider that going into this weekend Arsenal trails United by three points and in turn leads Chelsea by two points then should United and Chelsea win then the gap between first and second will become five points with Arsenal a further point behind. However, that single point would seem to be enough for Hansen to dismiss Arsenal’s chances (whle five points is not too much for Chelsea to make up) even though Manchester United have to still play the Gunners and have to travel to Stamford Bridge.
At the other end of the Premiership Wigan’s current run of form finds them on 31 points along with Boro. Although both teams still fall within the group still under threat of relegation these two teams haven’t featured in too many relegation picks lately. The subject of Newcastle is polarizing with fans and pundits clearly falling quickly into the “stay-up” or “relegated” camps – no indecision on that one.
Depending on how you feel about Newcastle they either join the group of Reading, Birmingham, Sunderland, Bolton and Fulham that are trying to avoid the two other relegations spots or not. Bolton’s chances of safety are often dismissed based on a supposedly tougher schedule while in North America Fulham seem to a lot of peoples pick for a “miracle” run to seventeenth spot or even higher. Perhaps a case of heart dominating the brain.
So if that is a recap of the conventional wisdom what are the UK bookies saying? As bookies odd are set based on money bet it should align closely with punters current opinion. At the wrong end of the league the bookies are no longer taking bets on Derby’s fate while not giving Fulham (2/5) much of a chance of survival and they reckon Bolton (5/6) are going to join them.
If either of these two teams does turn their “fate” around then Sunderland are the next pick to go down (2/1), with Reading and Birmingham (7/2) coming next. Jeremy St. Louis could make some money by choosing Newcastle at 4/1. Wigan (8/1) and Boro at 12/1 are definite outsiders.
At the other end the bookies are saying that the finish will be Manchester United 1/3, Arsenal 4/1, Chelsea 5/1 and Liverpool 120/1 with a United, Arsenal and Chelsea the favoured 1-2-3 finish. Before the midweek draw with Tottenham Chelsea were the bookies favourite to finish as runners-up.
Around Europe There are some great games around the rest of Europe as well. In Italy the two stand out games are Fiorentina vs. Lazio and the derby that isn’t a derby, Inter against Juventus. Spain has Sevilla against Atletico Madrid and if the game is half as interesting as their first match-up this season (a 4-3 win for Atletico) then it should be worth catching.
Meanwhile, Real Madrid probably can’t believe that after dropping nine points in their last five matches that they still lead second place Barcelona by seven points. For all the ups-and-downs we have seen in La Liga this season the fact is that since Real left the Nou Camp with a 1-0 win two days before Christmas the top three teams (Real Madrid, Barcelona and Villarreal) have all collected twenty-one points from a possible thirty-nine. This weekend Valencia provides the opposition for Real and will be buoyed after beating Barcelona in Thursday’s Copa del Rey semi-final.
The Bundesliga has a top versus third match-up with Bayern Munich facing a surging Bayer Leverkusen. Bayern remains unbeaten at home although their points total is reflective of five draws in eleven home games. On the other hand Leverkusen have not won at Bayern in 19 years, and have only won twice in twenty-eight visits.
I will be on World Soccer Daily at around 1:15 p.m. EST tomorrow (Friday).
Craigy_f – 1. Who do you rate more highly Best or Ronaldo? 2. What are your first football memories? 3. What moments made you laugh at the weekend – football related of course? 4. Casano’s first of Trezeguet’s second – which was more enjoyable? 5. How do you think that FSC gets it’s team sheets for Serie A games?
Bobby – 1. George Best. 2, Being taken to an amateur international at Dens Park between Scotland and Ireland. First professional game was I think Dundee United vs. Aberdeen. 3. Nothing. 4. Cassano. 5. They get team sheets?
Leche010 - Who do you see surviving and not this season? Obviously Derby are going down, but it's not like that was a surprise from the start. Fulham appear to be joining them, but have brought in quite a few new names, and could easily make a push to get out... I consider them in the relegation fight, as opposed to condemned.
After that there are Boro, Reading, Bolton, Birmingham, Wigan, and Sunderland all within 2 points of each other, fighting not to be bottom of that pack. Simply which of the 7 clubs do you think have what it takes to survive, and which clubs don't?
Bobby – I picked Derby, Wigan and Fulham to go down this season and as normal I will stick with these picks until it is mathematically impossible that it won’t happen. I can see Derby’s fate being sealed with at least five games to go in the season.
Boro will continue to pick up points only to get sucked back down but will stay up; Reading is too strong at home and will survive; Bolton – they scored goals before Anelka and will find enough goals to win a couple of important matches; Birmingham have enough zip about them to finish above the bottom three as long as they hold their nerve. Sunderland – Keane will batter them if they don’t – I don’t think he will allow them to go down.
Apad03-I just read the news that the Concacaf is starting up a champions league for this region. What do you think? I am thrilled to see this happen. I have suggested this for a few years now and I think it will be great to see MLS teams flying to Honduras or the Caribbean for these games. Great experience and I think some lively football.
Bobby – A step in the right direction but it is going to take a few seasons to establish the competition in the hearts and minds.
Craigy_ f - PROMOTION TO THE PREMIER LEAGUE
Any of the current top ten in the Championship you'd love or hate to see in the Premier League next year? They are:- 1 - West Brom, 2 - Bristol City, 3 – Watford, 4 – Stoke, 5 – Charlton, 6 – Palace, 7 – Burnley, 8 – Ipswich, 9 – Cardiff, 10 - Wolves
Bobby – Nothing stands out for me really and they all have the potential to drop back down fairly quickly. Take the clubs you list and the seven clubs listed as possible relegation candidates from a question above and you have parity and an extremely competitive league.
Henry 14 - q1 Do you know how Ericksson might feel now that the bucket load of money from Thaksin seems to not have come as he thought and he really has not spend as he might have thought and do you see them challenging the course for European places if he does not strengthen?
q2 Do you think we will see the full potential of Rooney at Man Utd as long as Ronaldo is there because two years ago he was sort of going to be the alfamale now it seems he is in the shadow of Ronaldo?
q3 With Eduardo coming into his own and playing well by the game, assuming that Adebayor is a shoe in, how do you view the future of RVP because he direct rival striker are at an age that if you know if they become shoe in the team he will be frustrated because they are both 24 years.
Bobby – Q 1. I have no idea what was said to Sven when he signed on but he certainly got a bucket full of money in the summer. The new signings settled in quickly and City benefited from Sven’s organizational skills. However, the momentum has stalled and the rest of the Premiership has done its homework. He needs a regular goal scorer if they hope to compete for a European place.
Q 2 - I don’t see how a player would not achieve his full potential by playing with excellent players. I can’t agree that players can only become great players if there is no one else on the team that might challenge them. I would have thought it the other way around.
Q3 – You are assuming that there is such a thing as a first choice eleven and that all the first choicers are fit and raring to go. It just doesn’t work like that anymore and hasn’t for a long time.
LGB - Would you say that Ronaldo is already a greater player for United than Cantona was?
Bobby – No. Cantona’s influence on United goes well beyond his performances on the park and so I don’t think he ranks behind Ronaldo. The problem with the “who is better” debate is that in almost all cases it favours the current player. Only in retrospect can you really judge whether or not players should be considered as truly great or just one of the best of their generation. And like managers it may not necessarily come down to trophies won.
Farleft - I was wondering if you had any insight into the decision making of which officials get to officiate certain matches? Do officials also get promoted and or relegated at the end of the season based on their performance throughout the season? I am not trying to slag off officials or anything like that, I am just curious.
Bobby – Here is an article that explains the FA’s move a number of years ago to professional referees and another that includes an interview with Keith Hackett. The answer to your promotion/relegation is yes and in some cases referees have been “demoted” for a period of time during the season.
I wrote an article in the fall of 2006 on professional referees and their preparation and the constant feedback and evaluation they receive. Different leagues will deal with referee assignments in different ways but I am confident in stating that any league or association worth its salt is continually evaluating and working with their officials.
Neophyte - Real Madrid continue to show what a great job Capello performed while manager there. Do you think he deserves the credit of bringing back the club to preeminence in La Liga or did the rebuild start before he got? When I watch them play (Real Madrid) they look so strong...solid all the way across. Do you see a fatal flaw that may haunt them later in the season? How about Villarreal? Just out gunned in the final minutes. Got to admire the fight they showed.
One more question....Did you see Riquelme during the Boca/River match-up this weekend? He is still impressive (especially on those free kicks). Do you know why he hasn't been linked to more teams in Europe? I thought I heard Newcastle was interested (who wouldn't they be interested in?). Riquelme seems like such a talent that other teams would have picked him up already.
Bobby – Capello deserves credit because he was the one that took on the galaticos culture and won…even though he lost if you know what I am getting at. I am not convinced that Real Madrid are as strong as their record indicates.
Castillas is still relied upon to bale the team out on more occasions than seems fair and I think their midfield is going to come up short in Champions League play. Villarreal certainly went for it on Sunday – perhaps too much so. It would have been more interesting if Pires had been playing.
I did catch the second half of the Super Classico and the first half highlights. Riquleme was impressive but I don’t think you will see him leave Argentina for Europe again. He is a special talent but he needs a coach who is willing to build a team around him.
At Barcelona that didn’t happen and that is why it did not work out. At Villarreal – initially anyway – they were willing to do that. To answer your question of “who wouldn’t be interested”? – the answer is the overwhelming majority of good teams would not be interested. They are not too many teams willing to gamble success or failure on a single player and that is pretty close to the straight choice with Riquelme. A wonderful talent but with limitations.
AlanV - Different subject. I just finished reading the article about the pilot program to have only the team captain be allowed to discuss decisions with the Ref. As a parent whose son plays at the club level, we already have a similar program here in So. California, at least as far as the parent and player accountability go.
My son has to sign a code of conduct each year where he promises to maintain a level of decorum and civility. He's a ref (U14 and lower) and has noticed a difference for the better in the comments of both players and the sidelines. I think it's a great idea and hope it works. I can agree to a players initial reaction when he disagrees, that's human nature. But there's no call for half the team to be discussing the situation with the ref, especially knowing he won't change his mind. What's your take? Will it work at the pro level or will that be impossible to enforce.
Bobby – It will work if the leagues are willing to stick with it. However, too often we have seen these initiatives taper off after a few weeks. It is really about setting standards and sticking to it. Unfortunately it is easy to say but difficult to stick to.
Henry 14 - My question is that Owen is given an excuse when he does not score that he needs service and other strikers are not given such a ride. The poacher is a dying breed hence reference to Ruud's assist rate
Bobby – You make a good point. I have read a number of articles over the last few seasons that allude to the same point that pure strikers are now a luxury and that they need to deliver more. Having said that it really doesn’t matter if a striker is a pure poacher or a more rounded player they still nned service or some kind to get goals.
LGB - If there is anyone who believes that LFC's most profitable year was a pre-tax profit of £9.46m than I have a bridge that I'd like to sell you...
Ursusarctos provided a top class explanation but I will chime in with my two cents worth.
It is not what they (businessmen) are losing, it is their take on how much more revenue potential there is. Generally successful entrepreneurs do not make money by buying successful businesses, they make money buying companies that they consider to be undervalued and that have potential to generate significantly more revenue or have a poor cost structure.
In the case of football clubs in England the Glazers, Hicks and Gillett see that additional revenue coming from fans. To cut to the chase they purchase the club with little of their own money at stake and then through increased revenue from the fans they pay off the loans incurred in the purchase. End result - they own the club and the fans pay the purchase price and more. The problem is that it is a gamble and should certain assumptions not work out then you see the potential of a financial meltdown ala Leeds.
“What I'm trying to say is that the numbers are #### (just like with United) and these clubs even with the construction of new stadia and the like are still making money hand over fist.”
I can understand that this stuff is not easy to understand but that doesn’t make it ####. Your example of United reminds me of the guy that jumps from the 40th floor of a building and as he passed the 20th floor people heard him say “so far so good.”
The Glazer deal may work out but that doesn’t preclude the fact that it is highly leveraged and comes with significant risk – as does the Liverpool deal. Try telling Leeds fans that it was #### …….they went into Administration for fun right!
The Leeds example is only used as an example of a meltdown …Leeds problems were not caused by a buy-out but they were caused by making some key assumptions that proved to be wrong.
Bobby – Dundee lost to Fraserbough in the 50s in the Scottish Cup so they should not be counting their sheep just because they are playing a Highland League side.
Craigy_f - Best and worst of the FA Cup 3rd Round for you? Which is your favourite CUP? Did you check out Mario Kempes' Perfect XI? Read something about EFC working with some soccer organization in Canada - Is this still going on? What will be your next live football match? Any ties that leap out at you for the fourth round?
Bobby – Best game was the Stoke vs. Newcastle match. Worst display was probably Sunderland going down 3-0 at home to Wigan. Favourite Cup – probably the World Cup, mainly due to the build-up even though it normally disappoints.
Kempes XI – yes I saw it in Four Four Two, it was close to the Dirty Dozen. I know the Argentina victory in 1978 is tainted somewhat but I thought they were a fantastic team. I remember watching Ardiles run the midfield and just being blowing away with how intelligent he was with the ball. Passarella was a rock at the back and good going forward. Tarantini (never worked out at Birmingham) bombing forward as well. Up front Kempes and Luque and then a year after came Maradona. Menotti was intriguing as well.
Everton are/were doing some stuff with the Ontario Soccer Association and GolTV.
Next live match – don’t know. It looks as if I will be busy through the spring and so maybe a trip to Toronto for an early MLS game might have to do.
Fourth round ties – nothing that others have not pointed out. The only thing I might add is that there will be a maximum of nine Premiership sides in the last 16 so it opens up a descent chance again for a “minnow” to sneak into the final..
The RealRico - As the conversation of commentators and brown nosing Bobby continues, I have to ask Bobby, how come you don't do any commentating on FSC? I know you have been asked this before, but I couldn't remember the answer.
Bobby – I have never been asked. I did some Canadian Soccer League stuff twenty years ago and that was what set the ball rolling and that led to radio, magazines, newspaper, FSR and the blog. To be honest I am quite happy doing what I am doing. It all fits nicely together with my other stuff and maybe sometime in the future the opportunity might arise but there again maybe not.
As an aside I have found myself watching games more as a colour commentator over the last few years. When we started off in 2001 I think I watched the games with the perspective of telling viewers what happened. It then dawned on me that the viewers knew what happened - what was needed was comments on why it happened – the job of a colour commentator.
I’m not sure that too many colour commentators in North America actually get that. Even though I might be accused of bias I think Christopher Sullivan does an outstanding job of telling the viewers why it happened not what happened.
I hear far too many colour guys in North America (particularly in Canada) acting as ancillary play-by-play guys. I think the other issue is that the more you hear from some of them the more you realize that there is very little depth e.g. no names but the guy that constantly second guesses the referees decision after viewing slow motion replays and then tells us if the official was right or wrong.
As far as the UK colour men are concerned I really enjoy listening to Robbie Earle and Paul Walsh.
In Canada as far as analysts are concerned Paul James gets a check mark from me – solid comments.
AlbertaGooner - Does anybody else remember Danny Blanchflower? He was a wonderful analyst back in the 1970s.
Bobby – He made the News of the World a worthwhile read beyond the stories of dirty vicars in sex scandals. Blanchflower was certainly one of the more intelligent players and analysts – and a wit as well. Unfortunately I think he suffered from Alzheimers for years before his death.
MrMoore - Blackburn are now in a poor run of form, but surely you can now mea culpa on your "dissing" of Roque Santa Cruz? The man is toward the top of the premier league goal scorers and in all competitions looks a pretty decent goal scorer.
Bobby – One season – or part of a season – does not a successful career make. Let’s see him do it for a couple of seasons and that way he can prove Bayern Munich and me wrong. You are in good company so far – Mitch Peacock passed on a message from Steve Nicol telling me I would rue my opinion of Santa Cruz.
Medpanton - Bibby, U have bin tlking abt the gud and sweet football arsenal are playing. do u see them as a team to win the title this season? I wil b listening ur program tonight.
Bibby – I think I get the question. I think Arsenal’s defense may cost them the league. Am I close?
Verbal97 - Anyway, I actually have a question this week. Aside from Arsenal, it seems that no players come up from youth levels in "the big 4", and even then its players Wenger bought from another club at a young age. Where's the next Robbie Fowler or David Beckham?
Someone from a Liverpool message board made a good point about Benitez in particular, in that if he were in charge at the time he would have NEVER given Fowler, Owen or Gerrard a chance. My questions are 1) is the pressure to get results at the top prevent the managers from giving youth players a try, 2) is the issue the managers or that the players aren't as good as before and 3) what effects, if any, is this having on the national team.
Bobby –1. There has always been pressure on managers – that is not new. And frankly managers at the top are so well paid that it is not as if they face ruin if they get fired. I just can’t believe that any manager cannot find a place for a promising player if they want to.
2. I would suggest a third option which is that with the money that they have available many of the top Premiership teams find it easier to sign what they consider to be a ready-made answer rather than living through the growing pains of a younger player.
3. Marginal – the national team is the supposed to be the cream of the crop so I don’t think that a potential national team player is going to be missed.
A more general comment on Premiership youth development - Paul Hart who developed some good talent at Leeds and Nottingham Forest is now in charge of youth players at Portsmouth. It might take a few years but if Portsmouth sticks with Hart then it should produce great dividends.
Getz76 - I know EU trade laws would forbid it as written now, but do you think there will ever be a salary cap in European soccer (ala NFL, NBA)? Do you think it would be beneficial? It seems to have done something in those leagues; while the NFL doesn't have relegation and some teams are insanely mismanaged (Cardinals, Bengals); in general every 4 or 5 years there are new teams that dominate or do well.
Bobby – You are right, as it currently stands EU laws will not permit salary caps. Under the just approved Treaty of Lisbon there is – in theory - always a chance that might change. But I would not hold my breath.
It may work in North America (and in Rugby League in England) but that is not a like for like comparison. Would it still work in North America if there was15 NBAs, 15 NFLs and 15 MLBs? A nightmare is what it would be.
What’s more you have to look at who would be the winners and losers if salary caps where imposed. Prices would not go down, salaries would as well, and so who makes a killing – the owners. Owners then make more money which leads to clubs being sold for ever higher prices.
The owners are the only winners, not the fans and not the players. It is interesting that players are criticized for their salaries but how many people questioned the $100M + made by Martin Edwards when he sold his United shares?
TijuanaTim - I sit back and smile about your regular opinions. However tonight you have excelled yourself. Running down Peter Crouch, where do I start? Firstly you would give your left testicle not only to have him playing for one of low level Dundee jokes let alone Scotland.
His goal scoring rate at international level exceeds both of your heroes...Kenny Dalglish (twice as good) and Dennis Law also. Both of whom scored some of their goals against poorer, less accomplished, less fit and amateur oppositions.
Crouch is loved by top coaches (with more 'soccer' knowledge than you could ever dream of having) and fans globally, especially at major clubs like Liverpool, Southampton and Portsmouth.
Where next, oh yeah 'Richard Cresswell was causing Newcastle problems', Bobby no he was not - he was completely ineffective.
Next 'Kevin Phillips was no threat in the Prem', he was his club's top scorer on repeated occasions and was the last player to hit an amazing 30 Prem goals in one season.
Then James Beattie (same comment as Phillips)...er Bob, he scored almost 100 Prem goals less than 300 games. He joined Southampton as a raw young forward and by the time he had played the same amount of games as Alan Shearer (who also started as a raw young forward at Saints) he had netted over twice as many goals - same league - same level of opponent etc
Bobby, try and be a little more professional and a shade less ill-informed and opinionated without an ounce of analytical back-up.
A bit about me so that you just don't blow me off. I am in my 30th competitive season of coaching, I have coached/managed at all levels. One of my former players won six full England caps and played for your countries greatest club, another was involved in million pound transfers and scored winning goals at Wembley....I am not sure whether this was before or during the time you have been an 'expert' or have been an author of a 'blog'.
Otherwise keep up the good work, it would be cool if you could interview or meet some football people 'in the know', it would add to your insights. BTW, your team Carlos - Jeremy etc are awesome. Happy New Year
Bobby – Oh I am so embarrassed. How could I ever have got it so wrong? Tim, you are of course right on all counts. Please accept my humblest apologies and feel free to correct me in the future.
Verbal97 - "Crouch is not horrible, but he is nowhere near world class" Getz gets it. Can't the haters at least concede that (yes, you too Bobby)?
Bobby – Verbal 97 after an ill-advised comment about Crouch during the World Cup (I think I used the word flop or something close) I retracted soon after. However, his numerous limitations are there for all to see.
Redfan2000 – This whole Crouch debate is nonsensical. Bobby raised it yet again because he failed to impress in the Luton game, in Bobby's estimation. Liverpool have four of five strike options and Crouch is by no means the least able of those available, period.
What failed to come out of the FSR was that Crouch got no little or no service or support. The much vaunted Kuyt and Babel did not get close to providing the kind of support Crouch thrives on. Torres would have fared no better.
If you are left alone up front which is what happened on Sunday, you have little to play with, boxed in by two backs and the CBs. The FSR analysis was more or less just a plain old character assassination, much as some of the comments on here.
A tactical analysis of why Liverpool failed to play well or create many scoring chances would have been far more worthy of the FSR. Luton played ok, but they were allowed to. At least Crouchy poached the goal that saved us a fate, with blushes, as bad as Everton's. It is not like he squandered fifteen attempts because he did not.
Peter Crouch has a role to play at Liverpool which is to score goals, but unless Rafa plays players who will give Crouch (or Torres for that matter) better supply he will not score goals. The focus of Liverpool's woes needs to be on the tactics and team performance, rather than on one striker or any single player.
Bobby – Just one comment, well ok two. If you really believe that Fernando Torres would not have fared better against Luton Town why the hell did Liverpool pay over $50M for him?
Torres can turn a defense and exploit the space behind the back four something which Crouch is largely incapable of doing. Character assassination? Come on.
Wiegs9 -Simon Barnes' opinion on Alan Shearer as manager seems at least partially based on Shearer having no managerial experience. I'm fine if this is pure opinion from Barnes, but I'm curious if there is any factual basis. In other words, are players (esp. star players) who don't apprentice at a top division club/nation or start managing at lower-level club/smaller nation before becoming a top division manager generally failures?
Bobby – I stand to be corrected but I cannot think on one manager in the modern era that has moved directly from the role of player to that of a successful manager and succeeded over an extended period of time. Dave MacKay did it for a season or two at Derby post-Clough.
We have had the likes of Gullit and Vialli but they flamed out. The nearest might be Kenny Dalglish and I think it fair to say that Heysel and Hillsborough took away any chance that there might have been to succeed in the long run ala Ferguson and Wenger.
I don’t think you can compare international to club managers given that there is a very different dynamic at play. When you look at the last two decades a major trend has been towards managers who have learned the trade as opposed to the old fashioned view that if you were a player then you could manage.
I think there is a much broader acceptance that teaching and coaching are skills much different than playing while man-management skills and leadership are probably more important than anything else. As Arrigo Sacchi said "you don't have to be a horse to be a jockey."
Djnima -1. What is your opinion of Karim Benzema? He looks to be the hottest property in European football. Do you think he is over hyped due to the fact that he plays in Ligue 1 (a step down for BPL, Serie A, and La Liga I’m sure you would concur)? 2. Do you see Alan Hutton signing for United in the summer? Would you rate him as a long term replacement for Gary Neville? 3. Have you heard of this Skrtel fellow?
Bobby –1. He looks to be the real deal to me. 2. I would not discount Spurs as a final destination yet. 3. No.
And finally…….
TijuanaTim I was only kidding I just wanted to keep you to last. Where do I start?
“Bobby, try and be a little more professional and a shade less ill-informed and opinionated without an ounce of analytical back-up.” TT practice what you preach perhaps. Or does the comment “you would give your left testicle not only to have him playing for one of low level Dundee jokes let alone Scotland” pass as striking insight and wisdom from 30 years of experience at all levels? If it came to watching Peter Crouch week in and week out I wouldn’t give your left and right ones for that privilege.
“His goal scoring rate at international level exceeds both of your heroes...Kenny Dalglish (twice as good) and Dennis Law also”. Your comparison of Peter Crouch to Kenny Dalglish and Denis Law? I’ll let that one stand without comment. Liverpool and Manchester United fans please feel free to chip in. (Crouch’s scoring rate at the international level is better than Fernando Torres as well so I can only assume that you also rate Crouch higher than Torres).
“Crouch is loved by top coaches….. and fans globally, especially at major clubs like Liverpool, Southampton and Portsmouth.”
Pity he isn’t loved by the Liverpool manager. Once again if you are going to call me on lack of analytical back-up then I expect more than grandiose statements from you.
How about some insightful comment about Crouch’s skills and how he compares to the likes of Adebayor, Drogba, Torres or Berbatov? How many times in his career has Crouch actually turned a defender and created a chance let alone scored?
Strength, mobility, movement, power in the air, finishing on the deck (the only thing I would give him close to a pass mark for), pace, touch, creativity?
No let’s just dismiss all that stuff because Crouch supposedly has a good touch for a big man - as if big players should not be able to control a ball. Crouch is a starter at a mid-table Premiership side – nothing more. He is, as I have said repeatedly, a very limited player and certainly not one that should be playing for a side like Liverpool.
“Where next, oh yeah 'Richard Cresswell was causing Newcastle problems', Bobby no he was not - he was completely ineffective” Stoke had Newcastle on the rack for most of the second half and Cresswell was part of it stretching the Newcastle defence on their right side and forcing saving tackles and saves. He was so ineffective Tony Pulis kept him on for the full game. Maybe it had something to do with the two great last ditch saves he forced.
“Next 'Kevin Phillips was no threat in the Prem', he was his club's top scorer on repeated occasions and was the last player to hit an amazing 30 Prem goals in one season” If you going to quote me please quote me correctly and in context. Phillips scored 30 goals in the Premiership…………over 8 seasons ago. His last scoring season in the Premiership was 2005/06 and he scored 4 goals in 23 appearances. (As an aside Phillips was not the last player to score 30 goals in the Premiership.)
The question related to the Coventry striker Michael Mifsud and whether or not he could step up to the Premiership. The point I was making was that there is a large gap between the two leagues and you only have to look at the top scorers in the Championship (Beattie and Phillips) and compare how they were doing in the Premiership before dropping down a division. Phillips last scoring season in the Premiership I have noted above; Beattie has scored 13 goals in 20 plus Championship matches this season. He took him 76 games in the Premiership to score his last 13 Premiership goals.
“He (Beattie) scored almost 100 Prem goals less than 300 games. He joined Southampton as a raw young forward and by the time he had played the same amount of games as Alan Shearer (who also started as a raw young forward at Saints) he had netted over twice as many goals - same league - same level of opponent etc” If 81 goals are almost 100 then you are correct. I wasn’t aware that Alan Shearer had ever played for Southampton in the Premiership. I thought he joined Blackburn from Southampton just before the Premiership kicked-off. There was almost a decade between Beattie starting for Southampton after his move from Blackburn and Shearer but if you are going to compare Crouch with Dalglish and Law then why not compare Beattie with Alan Shearer?
If you consider me an “expert” then that is your word but it is not something I have ever called myself and it is not something I would be comfortable with. I learn something new about the game every week and only wish that when I was younger I had been more observant and would have had more access to how other countries played the game.
There are a lot more people with far greater insight than me but there is also a lot of rubbish and clichés that comes out of the mouths of ex players and coaches. To put forward the notion that only people “in the know” can intelligently comment on the game is elitist and wrong.
I find that intelligent comment and analysis comes largely from what you would probably consider outside of the game rather from within it. Or maybe you can provide a list of sources of intelligent comment on the game that you approve of?
There was a lengthy post on Crouch on November 6 2007.
It must be difficult to convince supporters of the three Premiership teams located in the north-east of England that it is the season of good cheer. As it currently stands Newcastle, Middlesbrough and Sunderland have played six games over the holiday period and have the sum total of one point to show for it. Even then it required a late equalizer from Mark Viduka to earn the single point against foot-of-the-table Derby County.
A stirring performance against Arsenal in the first week of December seemed to have set Newcastle on the right path as they followed the draw up with wins against Birmingham and Fulham. But the scrambled draw with Derby and an anemic loss to Wigan had Sam Allardyce publically questioning his players.
Full points from these very-winnable four games would have earned Newcastle more breathing space and moved them into a top eight position. As it is, they sit just below mid-table with 26 points with the definite possibility that come the beginning of March that they will not have too many more.
Starting on Saturday with a trip to Stamford Bridge Newcastle will play eight Premiership games with six of them against top half opposition (Manchester City h, Manchester United h and a, Arsenal a, Aston Villa a), and the other two against Bolton and Middlesbrough at St. James’ Park. There is also a tricky FA Cup third round match in two weeks time away to Stoke City who are currently in the top four of the Championship.
With the team again taking two steps forward and three back Allardyce’s
