Fulham’s win over Arsenal was no fluke. The Cottagers played high quality football and totally outplayed Arsenal in the midfield.
Stoke City took the lead twice against Aston Villa only to be pegged back each time. But they persevered and got a stoppage time winner from Mamady Sidibe in their first top flight game at home since 1985.
It may not have been pretty but that should not overshadow the fact that the USA got off to a great start to the semi-final round of World Cup qualifying with their first ever competitive win in Guatemala.
The New York Red Bulls are hitting their stride at the right time. A 3-0 win over Houston means that the Red Bulls are now unbeaten at home in their last six home games and have scored nine goals in their last three. Considering that the Houston Dynamo had been rattling up wins and goals the last few weeks it was an impressive outing for the Bulls.
Best forgotten…..
A little over two years ago Chelsea paid Milan a king’s ransom for the services of Andriy Shevchenko. To that point in his career Shevchenko has scored at a rate better than a goal every two games and although he scored on his debut for Chelsea only eight more goals were to follow over the next two seasons. It would be considered a poor return on a striker that cost $6M let alone $60M and no matter which way you look it the move failed miserably. The lesson – no transfer comes with a guarantee of success.
For most nations a bronze medal at the Olympic Games is more than a satisfactory return. But for Brazil’s men's soccer team and the fans back home it is nothing less than abject failure. Brazil has been become overly fixated on winning a men’s soccer gold at the Olympics – the one title that has eluded them over the years. Silver medals in 84 and 88 were followed by a bronze in Atlanta. This time it was another bronze and should Brazil stumble in their next World Cup qualifying match away to Chile in just under two weeks time it will be a coup de grace for coach Carlos Dunga.
Best goals…. There were a slew to choose from this week and here are my picks in no particular order.
Chad Barrett’s equalizer for Toronto against New England Revolution was his 7th goal of the season. It was a thunderous left foot strike that flew past the Revolution’s Doug Warren.
Liverpool’s winner against Boro might also be categorized as crime of the week. Nonetheless Steven Gerrard’s shot right on full time was not only beautifully struck but it was a clutch goal for the home side.
A very cute header from Hull’s Richard Garcia gave the away side a share of the points against Blackburn.
Jakub Blaszczykowski (Kuba to the fans and commentators) sent a swerving right footed drive from the edge of the penalty area into the roof of the Bayern Munich net for Borussia Dortmund.
Goal feast……
Not only goals galore but a few reds as well as Real Madrid beat Valencia 4-2 in the Spanish Super Cup second leg and took the trophy 6-5 on aggregate. When you consider that Real was down 4-2 on aggregate and down to 10-men by half time it was a remarkable result. But remarkable was to become extraordinary.
Ruud van Nistelrooy narrowed the gap to a single goal from the penalty spot only five minutes after the restart but then did his side no favours when he was sent off with 16 minutes to go. Playing nine against eleven and a goal down with a quarter of an hour left Real Madrid then stunned Valencia with three goals before Morientes scored a consolation goal for Valencia.
Sergio Ramos and substitutes Reuben de la Red (another red for Real Madrid?) and Higuaín all scored. It was all amazing stuff and a shot in the arm for Real Madrid who starts their title defense away to Deportivo La Coruna on Sunday. Valencia is at home to Mallorca.
Best Howlers…… A badly misplayed corner by Pat Onstad gifted Jamaica an equalizer in midweek World Cup qualifying against Canada. Onstad who is normally so reliable for Houston punched an Andy Williams corner into his own net shortly after Julian de Guzman has given Canada a one goal lead.
Best Players…. The Fulham midfield of Davies, Bullard, Murphy and Gera was outstanding in Fulham’s 1-0 win over Arsenal.
Elano may have scored twice for Manchester City against West Ham United but it was Stephen Ireland that set both goals up. Ireland was irrepressible in midfield for City as they chalked up a much needed win.
Stat facts Middlesbrough last won at Anfield was on March 6, 1976 with goals from John Hickton and Terry Cooper. Since then Liverpool has won 19 and drawn 6 against Boro at home.
Michael Owen’s headed goal against Bolton was his 19th Premiership goal for Newcastle. Of the nineteen, nine have now come from his head. This is quite a contrast to Owen’s record of only seven headers out of 118 goals during his time with Liverpool in the Premiership.
Wigan boss Steve Bruce might want to be really clear about kick off time when his charges play at Hull next Saturday. In their two games so far Wigan has conceded three goals and they have all come in the first ten minutes.
What was said….
Jonathan Wilson with a remarkable story about Croatia’s Darijo Srna.
Marcela Mora y Araujo on Argentina’s performance at the Olympics.
Steve Tongue on the fall of the FA’s CEO Brian Barwick and the changes that have still to come.
Mike Ticher questions the purpose of the Men’s Olympic soccer tournament.
The start of the new Premiership season is only days away and over the next five days I will have previews of all twenty clubs.
It is an opportunity to stick your own neck out as well. Criticize my picks and the picks of others as much as you like – but be ready to back up your statements with your own predicted finishes.
Trolls will be deleted. You can also predict the first manager to leave their post as well as the three teams that will come up from the Championship. You can find the“rules”by following the link.
The past performances are from the 2003/04 season to the one just concluded. Points are followed by the final position and if the team was not in the Premiership then it is indicated by N/a. Thanks to all of you who took the time to post your thoughts and predictions and I hope you can stick around and contribute to the debate over the next 10 months.
Friday Chelsea, Everton, West Ham, Middlesbrough Prediction summary First manager out Promoted from the Championship
Thursday Arsenal, Fulham, Aston Villa, West Brom Wednesday Liverpool, Manchester City, Blackburn Rovers, Stoke City
Tuesday Bolton Wanderers, Manchester United, Hull City, Wigan. Monday Sunderland, Newcastle, Tottenham Hotspur, Portsmouth.
Chelsea Past performances (79-2nd, 95-1st, 91-1st, 83-2nd, 85-2nd)
Rear View Mirror - Chelsea played the lowest proportion of long balls last season - 12.48%. Top scorer last season – Lampard (10).
Significant Moves In – Bosingwa (Porto), Deco (Barcelona). Out – Sidwell (Aston Villa), Crespo (Inter), Boulahrouz (Stuttgart), Makelele (Paris St Germain), Sahar (Portsmouth), Ben Haim (Manchester City).
Win the title? – 13/8.
Fire the Manager! – Luiz Felipe Scolari 50/1.
Synopsis – Another season and another Chelsea manager. Luiz Felipe Scolari becomes the fourth man in charge of the club in five years and despite Roman Abramovich’s almost limitless largesse Chelsea have yet to become the dominant club in England let alone in Europe.
The two Premiership titles won under in Mourinho in 2005 and 2006 raised Chelsea fans expectations while instilling fear in the hearts of others. Back then it seemed almost preordained that Chelsea would sweep all before them in a perfect Premiership storm – Abramovich’s money + Mourinho’s know-how = Domination.
But along the way we found out that although money talks, it does can sometimes have a wee speech impediment. Two seasons ago a resurgent United took advantage of a Chelsea side that seemed to lose its way with talk of focusing on the Champions League. And for the last two seasons Chelsea has had to make do with wins in the Carling Cup and the FA Cup while finishing runners up in four competitions – three times to United.
It is now Scolari’s responsibility to turn Chelsea into champions once more. And just like Mourinho, Scolari has been granted a fantastic base of players to work with.
Petr Cech has not recovered the form he showed prior to the head injury he suffered in 2006 but he is a still a formidable barrier as the last line of defense. In partnering John Terry in the centre of defense Carvalho was arguably Chelsea’s most consistent player last season. New arrival Bosingwa and Ashley Cole can provide the team with much needed width if they are given a freer rein.
In midfield Scolari is spoilt for choice. John Obi Mikel looks the most likely candidate for the holding midfielder spot. Then there is Essien, Ballack, Lampard, Joe Cole, Deco, Malouda and Wright-Phillips.
It has been suggested that Deco might play a more advanced role just behind the main striker. Interestingly enough that is a role touted as Joe Cole’s best position by some but no Chelsea manager so far has shown any desire to persevere with the option.
Drogba will be the first choice striker when fit which leaves Scolari with another dilemma – what do to do with Salomon Kalou, Nicolas Anelka and Andrei Shevchenko? When you consider that Chelsea’s major flaw over the last two seasons has been a lack of goals (compared to their closest league rivals) and most especially at home, then Chelsea’s fate may rest on how Scolari answers that question.
Identifying Chelsea’s home record as their Achilles heel certainly sounds strange. But, although it is four years since they lost a Premiership game at home, Chelsea has dropped far too many points on home turf the last two years.
In their Premiership winning years Chelsea drew 6 games from a total of 38 games. In the last two seasons the numbers of home draws have ballooned to 14 (7 in each year) – that is a difference of 16 points in total.
When you consider that United has won the league by six points and two points then it clear what Scolari has to do if he is to join Mourinho and Wenger as managers who have won the Premiership in their first season’s in charge.
Season’s narrative – Can an old dog like Scolari learn Premiership tricks?
Prediction – 1st
Middlesbrough Past performances (48-11th, 55-7th, 45-14th, 46-12th, 42-13th)
Rear View Mirror – Last season Middlesbrough scored 53% of their goals in the first half – the highest percentage of any team.
Top scorer last season – Downing (9).
Significant Moves In – Digard (Paris St Germain), Emnes (Sparta Rotterdam) Out – Rochemback (released), Lee ######## (released), Mendieta (released), Boateng (Hull), Schwarzer (Fulham) Young (Aston Villa), Cattermole (Wigan).
Win the title? - 1,000/1.
Fire the Manager! – Gareth Southgate 12/1. Synopsis – Last season I wrote – “In the last five seasons Boro has been as high as 7th and as low as 14th. Based on this summer’s moves the team is more likely to finish closer to 14th than 7th.” There seems little reason to change the assessment.
Over the last two seasons Middlesbrough has only spent five weeks out of 76 in the rarified air of the top half. What is more they have struggled to put consecutive wins together – three times they have they won back to back games and once they managed a winning streak of three games.
Maybe the problem is that the schedule just is not tough enough. After all how does their overall record square with a team whose performances against the big four stacks up well against the other 16 teams? Manchester United 2 draws, Chelsea 1 win, Arsenal 1 win and 3 draws, Liverpool 2 draws – not bad considering Boro has been essentially a bottom half side.
Over the last twelve months Boro has held on to Stewart Downing despite repeated interest from the likes of Spurs and finally signed a replacement for Yakubu and Viduka last January in securing the transfer of Afonso Alves. Manager Gareth Southgate has taken the opportunity this summer to clear out some space in his midfield with Boateng, Rochemback and Cattermole all departing.
Arriving at the the Riverside are two young midfielders – Digard and Emnes. In the absence of any other moves it might indicate that Southgate is looking to give more opportunities to players developed by the highly-regarded Boro youth program.
The departure of goalie Mark Schwarzer and right back Luke Young leaves questions over their replacements. Up front Southgate has a number of options – Tuncay, Aliadiare, Mido – to go with record signing Alves.
Last season an eight goal final day performance against Manchester City inflated Boro’s miserable scoring record – it will be interesting to see how many games it takes them to score eight this season.
Season’s narrative – Will Afonso Alves deliver the goals that Boro need to move up the table?
Prediction – 14th
West Ham United Past performances (N/a, N/a, 55-9th, 41-15th, 49-10th)
Rear View Mirror - West Ham let in 58% of their goals against in the opening 45 minutes of matches – the worst percentage in the Premier League.
Top scorer last season – Ashton (10).
Significant Moves In – Behrami (Lazio), Lastuvka (Shakhtar Donetsk). Out – Zamora (Fulham), Pantsil (Fulham), Solano (released), Ljungberg (released).
Win the title? – 1,000/1.
Fire the Manager! – Alan Curbishley 6/1 favourite.
Synopsis – Compared to the previous season’s rollercoaster ride, the last campaign for West Ham fans was uneventful. The Hammers spent 24 weeks out of 38 in 10th position including 18 of the last 19.
When you only win back-to-back games once all season then movement either way is going to be pretty limited. West Ham did suffer an inordinate number of injuries last season although cynics might point out that if you sign injury-prone players then that should not come as a surprise.
As far as this season is concerned the current West Ham squad should be more than capable of steering clear of relegation trouble. However, on the other hand it is difficult to see how they can find a way to challenge for a UEFA Cup spot.
Defensively there is room for improvement with the Hammers having conceded 50 goals. Robert Green became a master of the penalty save last season while playing in every Premiership game and he was rewarded with the club’s Player of the Year trophy.
However, during the summer he expressed concerns about his contract – something West Ham steadfastly refused to renegotiate. As back-up the club has brought in Czech keeper Jan Lastuvka (former Fulham loan signing) on loan from Shakhtar Donetsk.
The only other addition to the squad (so far) has been Swiss player Valon Behrami signed from Lazio. Behrami has struggled with injuries (another one?) while at Lazio and that limited his appearance to less than 70 in three seasons. If he can avoid problems then West Ham will have got a dynamic, mobile and multi-positional player.
In attack Dean Ashton would seem to be an automatic pick with the likes of Craig Bellamy the favourite to join him. Ashton finished the season strongly scoring in the final three games of the season. We may also see more of some of the West Ham youngsters having got a glimpse of Jack Collison and Fred Sears late last season.
Season’s narrative – Can West Ham avoid the injury problems that plagued them last season? Prediction – 10th
Everton Past performances (39-17th, 61-4th, 50-11th, 58-6th, 65-5th)
Rear View Mirror – In the 2008 season Everton conceded 70% of their goals in the second half. Top scorer last season – Yakubu (15).
Significant Moves In – None so far. Out – Carsley (Birmingham), Wessels (released), Johnson (Fulham), Gravesen (Celtic), Fernandes (Valencia).
Win the title? – 200/1.
Fire the Manager! – David Moyes 10/1.
Synopsis – I have to admit to being surprised at how many pundits and fans are predicting a plummet for Everton this season – just clinging on to the top half is a relatively common prediction. The reason for the bearish outlook seems to be down to the absence of new arrivals at Goodison.
But is that really enough to sent Everton down four or five places? After all the defense last season turned in some excellent displays and the 33 goals conceded was the best outside of the top four by a country mile. Only three teams went to Goodison and scored more than a goal and it is difficult to make a reasonable case that somehow the defense is going to start leaking goals at an alarming rate.
If there is one concern about the defense it comes from their midfield cover rather than the back four and goalkeeping. Lee Carsley had a fantastic season for the Toffees and will be missed after leaving for Championship Birmingham earlier this summer. Vastly underappreciated Carsley was a key part of Everton finishing in fifth place last season.
In attack the departure of Andy Johnson has brought little criticism from the Everton faithful. Johnson could not replicate the form he showed in his Premiership spell with Crystal Palace and by the end of last season he had been largely relegated to appearances from the bench.
However, it does leave Everton looking threadbare in attack and signing a striker appears to be a minimum requirement for David Moyes before the transfer window closes. Newcastle’s Alan Smith (bad move) has been mentioned as has the possible loan signing of Brazilian Wagner Love (good move). A fit Tim Cahill sometime soon would not go amiss either.
Season’s narrative – Fifth place last season, the squad hasn’t been strengthened – so how can it get any better?
Prediction – 7th
Prediction Table
1. Chelsea 2. Manchester United 3. Arsenal 4. Liverpool 5. Aston Villa 6. Tottenham 7. Everton 8. Manchester City 9. Portsmouth 10. West Ham 11. Wigan 12. Sunderland 13. Blackburn 14. Middlesbrough 15. Newcastle 16. West Brom 17. Bolton 18. Fulham 19. Stoke City 20. Hull City
First manager out Gary Megson
Promoted from the Championship Birmingham City Reading Ipswich
Thursday
Arsenal Past performances (90-1st, 83-2nd, 67-4th, 68-4th, 83-3rd)
Rear View Mirror - Arsenal scored 27 goals in the final 15 minutes of Premiership matches last season – more than any other side.
Top scorer last season – Adebayor (24)
Significant Moves In – Ramsey (Cardiff), Nasri (Marseille) Out – Hleb (Barcelona), Gilberto Silva (Panathinaikos), Flamini (AC Milan), Lehmann (Stuttgart)
Win the title? – 4/1
Fire the Manager! – Arsene Wenger 50/1
Synopsis – After finishing only four points behind champions Manchester United last season and with the youngest team in the league there would appear to be a good case to be made for Arsenal taking that extra couple of steps up the table.
Particularly when you consider that they finished with eleven draws and only took six points from a possible 18 available against Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea.
A few draws become wins, or losses to United and Chelsea become draws or wins and the complexion of the top three changes very quickly. However, although Arsenal played some great football last season the gap between Arsenal and the top two was not accurately reflected by the final points differential.
Arsenal only conceded 31 goals last season (an improvement of four on the previous) but nowadays that is too many for a side with title aspirations. Last season United conceded 22, the year before 27, Chelsea’s championship seasons were 22 and 15, and Arsenal unbeaten season was 26.
When the chips were down the Arsenal defense was found wanting and with no changes it is doubtful that we will see an improvement in their league position this season.
In attack the drop off in goals from Adebayor (24) to the next highest highest Fabregas (8) was too great and such an over reliance on one player for goals means leans times when a dip in form hits. Nonetheless Adebayor is a solid bet for at least 15-20 Premiership goals again this season but Arsenal also needs a full season out of Van Persie, and more goals from the wide midfield positions.
They also need solid defensive cover in the centre of midfield. If Wenger can find the right player to team with Fabregas it might pay off not only in goals scored but in the goals against column as well. Season’s narrative – Will Arsenal finally slip out of the top four or will they again prove the purveyors of gloom wrong once again?
Prediction – 3rd
Fulham Past performances (52-9th, 44-13th, 48-12th, 39-16th, 36-17th)
Rear View Mirror - Fulham won their last three games away from Craven Cottage but before that they set a new record of 33 Premier League games without a win away from home.
Top scorer last season – Dempsey (6).
Significant Moves (backing up the truck) In – Schwarzer (Middlesbrough), Zamora & Pantsil (West Ham), Gera (West Brom), Teymourian (Bolton), Kallio (BSC Young Boys), Stockdale (Darlington), Stoor (Rosenborg), Pascal Zuberbühler (free), Andy Johnson (Everton). Out – Warner (Hull), Bocanegra (Rennes), Pearce, Christanval, Litmanen, Elliott, McBride (all freed), Stalteri (returned to Tottenham after loan), Stefanovic (Norwich)
Win the title? – 2,000/1
Fire the Manager! – Roy Hodgson 10/1
Synopsis – Twelve months ago then Fulham manager Lawrie Sanchez was handed the cheque book and was allowed to spend extravagantly. This summer his replacement Roy Hodgson on the back of a “Great Escape” has also been granted financial freedom.
Can Hodgson’s buys deliver what Sanchez’s could not? On the face of it looks doubtful as Hodgson appears to have fallen into the same trap as his predecessor – signing players that may add depth to the squad but do not add anything new or bring any extra quality to the team.
Only Andy Johnson, if he can resurrect his Palace Premiership form of a few years ago, might add something special to the squad. Otherwise it looks like a case of trading like for like.
Season’s narrative – Miracle escapes rarely happen twice so can Fulham get off to a descent start?
Prediction – 18th
West Brom Past performances - (N/a, 34-17th, 30-19th, N/a, N/a)
Rear View Mirror – In winning the Championship last season West Brom scored 88 goals – 19 more than the next highest scorer.
Top scorer last season – Phillips (22)
Significant Moves In – Carson (Liverpool), Zuiverloon (Heerenveen), L. Moore (Aston Villa), Cech (Porto), Bednar (Hearts), Meite (Bolton)
Out – Albrechtsen (Derby), Davies (Aston Villa, now permanent), Gera (Fulham), Phillips (Birmingham)
Win the title? – 2,000/1
Fire the Manager! – Tony Mowbray 16/1
Synopsis – Now and again you find a stark contrast between the way players played and how their teams play once they become managers. George Graham is often held up as a prime example – Graham was a silky smooth midfielder but he produced dour, efficient but effective teams as a manager.
Tony Mowbray perhaps has gone in the opposite direction. An uncompromising centre half with Boro, Celtic and Ipswich Mowbray the manager produces attacking and entertaining teams. He did it with Hibs in the SPL and he has stood by his principles since moving to the Midlands nearly two years ago.
Mowbray took over from Bryan Robson at The Hawthorns but failed to make the jump back to the Premiership losing to Derby in the play-off final in 2007. There was no such problem in the season just passed as WBA won the Championship and one of the two automatic promotion spots.
However, goals and attacking football have to come with a healthy dose of pragmatism especially if a team wants to survive in the Premiership. With one eye on the goals against column Mowbray has paid particular attention to the West Brom defense. In has come Scott Carson to play goal while three other defenders have been acquired – Dutch youngster Zuiverloon, Slovakian Marek Cech and from Bolton Meite.
Up front perennial break out striker Luke Moore has moved from Villa and Roman Bednar has been signed to a permanent contract from Hearts. Of the three promoted West Brom has the best chance of survival and even they do go back down it will probably be with guns blazing.
Season’s narrative – Can the West Brom defence stand up to a Premiership pounding?
Prediction – 16th
Aston Villa Past performances (56- 6th, 47-10th, 42-16th, 50-11th, 60-6th)
Rear View Mirror – In the 38 Premiership games last season Aston Villa used just 18 starters - the lowest number since Leeds United (18 players) in 1997/98.
Top scorer last season – Carew (13)
Significant Moves In – Davies (WBA), Sidwell (Chelsea), Friedel (Blackburn), Guzan (Chivas USA), Shorey (Reading), Young (Middlesbrough), Cuellar (Rangers) Out – L. Moore (West Brom), Berger (Sparta Prague), Mellberg (Juventus), Sorensen (Stoke), Carson (returned to Liverpool)
Win the title? – 200/1
Fire the Manager! – Martin O’Neill 33/1
Synopsis – During his time at Celtic, Martin O’Neill was infamous for waiting until the transfer window was inching towards closing before making moves. It was something that the fans found frustrating and something that tells you that O’Neill is either a very patient man or a man who tends to panic – based on his managerial record I would suggest it is the former.
With six new signings complete and over two weeks of the transfer window still to go perhaps Martin O’Neill has changed his timing. But one thing that hasn’t changed is his belief that a successful team needs a strong back four – another is that he loves centre backs.
Last season it was Curtis Davies (loan now permanent) and Zat Knight – this time it is Spaniard Carlos Cuellar from Rangers. O’Neill has also added two full backs (Luke Young and Nicky Shorey) who are comfortable moving forward – a weakness last season for a side that conceded 51 goals.
Behind the back four Brad Friedel will give Villa an authoritative figure in goal and if called upon Brad Guzan will provide solid back up. In midfield Steve Sidwell has an opportunity to show that his last twelve months at Stamford Bridge was only a hiccup.
But two doubts remain – whether or not Gareth Barry will leave and whether or not Villa can produce the same goal output as last season. The Barry situation seems to depend more on whether the Liverpool owners are willing to break into the piggy bank rather than anything more that Villa can do.
The goal scoring is a different matter. Villa got goals from strikers, midfielders, defenders and even a healthy contribution of five own goals from the opposition last season. If Villa can maintain their goal output and reduce the goals against column by ten or so then they could be looking at a 68-70 point season – good enough for 5th and close enough to give the fourth place side palpitations - for a while at least.
Season’s narrative – How far can a supposedly wafer-thin squad go?
Prediction – 5th
Wednesday
Liverpool Past performances (60- 4th, 58-5th, 82-3rd, 68-3rd, 76-4th)
Rear View Mirror - Liverpool allowed their opponents just 90 shots on target – a league low last season.
Synopsis – First the good news - goalkeeping and central defense are not problems and with the return of the silky smooth Daniel Agger Liverpool will be able to count on even better service coming from the back four. Torres will score goals and Gerrard will strap on the Superman cloak on occasion.
But if Liverpool is going too truly challenge for the Premiership title than any assessment has to look at last season’s short comings and the changes engineered by Benitez. Two new full backs (Degen and Dossena) will challenge for starting positions with Dossena the most likely of the two to make an impact.
The midfield remains largely unchanged at this point although Pennant and Alonso could move on before the transfer window closes. There is also a remote chance that Gareth Barry will augment an already crowded midfield corps but more on that later.
One of the biggest moves has been Liverpool’s acquisition of Robbie Keane from Spurs. A very different player than the departed Peter Crouch, Keane’s style and panache offers Liverpool a lot more continuity in their build up. Keane also has a good track record of linking up well with striking partners.
The Keane/Torres partnership has the potential to be explosive and highly successful with Gerrard set to benefit as well by the movement of the front pairing. However, service from the right side of midfield will be a problem unless Benitez finds a way to upgrade.
Any assessment of Liverpool’s chances also has to take into consideration the organizational shambles that Liverpool displays on a regular basis.
The Gareth Barry transfer saga is only the latest in a series of squabbles that holds the Liverpool owners and management up to ridicule. Once you cut through the rhetoric the situation is straight forward and simple. Liverpool wants to sign Barry and Barry wants to play at Anfield.
Aston Villa set their price and a deadline. Liverpool miss the deadline – for whatever reason – but Liverpool still wants to do the deal. Aston Villa relents and so all that is needed is for Liverpool to sign a very large cheque (perhaps a couple of post dates!) and the deal is done.
Days go by but nothing happens except more hot air from Anfield. Benitez says money is not an issue; Rick Parry says the price quoted is too high; the owners don’t come through on their commitment.
If raising $35M is a problem then how will they raise over 15 times as much to pay for the new stadium that Hicks and Gillett have promised? The Barry saga is the canary in the Liverpool coal mine.
Season’s narrative – Will the new arrivals be enough for Liverpool to finally challenge for the title?
Prediction – 4th
Stoke City Past performances (First Premiership season)
Rear View Mirror – Stoke only gained six points more in 2008 than they did twelve months before – but it was enough to move from an 8th place to 2nd and an automatic promotion spot.
Top scorer last season – Fuller (15).
Significant Moves In – Sorenson (free), Faye (Charlton), Kitson (Reading), Olofinjana (Wolves). Out – Hoult (Notts County), Matteo (released).
Win the title? – 5,000/1.
Fire the Manager! – Tony Pulis 11/1.
Synopsis – Like Hull City and West Brom, Stoke City shows no willingness to bet the farm on Premiership survival versus the risk of financial annihilation. The parachute payments may have been increased but other clubs have shown how quickly these payments can be eaten up by signing players on excessively pricey and inflexible deals.
Stoke was a founding member of the Football League 120 years ago and is making a return to the top flight after an absence of 23 years. For manager Tony Pulis it will be his first chance to match wits with Premiership managers on a weekly basis.
Stoke was a big strong and straight forward side last season and there is little to indicate that anything will change. Pulis will aim to get the ball forward early and to try and pester opposition defenses. With six footers like Jon “The Beast” Parkin and Ricardo Fuller available you can readily understand why. Reading striker Dave Kitson has been added to the attack and although Kitson should be good for a few goals the overall attack will have trouble unsettling some of the more sophisticated Premiership defenses.
Nigerian Seyi Olofinjana should add some pace, power and a couple of goals from midfield while Amdy Faye offers defensive cover. Thomas Sorenson (released by Aston Villa) will battle Steve Simonsen for the starting position between the pipes.
In the late 90s Simonsen was probably the first of what has since become a long line of young English goalkeepers singled out for greatness only to finish up with a great future behind them. A $7m transfer from Tranmere to Everton placed incredible pressure on the youngster and he never settled down at Goodison. A 2004 move to Stoke and away from the Premiership hype has benefited Simonsen.
Simonsen’s career move is emblematic of many of the Stoke squad. Solid players that can thrive at a lower level but struggle when asked to step up - Andy Griffin, Liam Lawrence, Richard Cresswell, Salif Diao and Danny Pugh.
Season’s narrative – Can the efficient style that got Stoke promoted keep them in the Premiership?
Prediction – 19th
Blackburn Past performances (44-15th, 42-15th, 63-6th, 52-10th, 58-7th)
Rear View Mirror – Last season Blackburn conceded more fouls (583) than any other team.
Top scorer last season – Cruz (19).
Significant Moves In – Robinson (Tottenham), Villanueva (Audax Italiano), Simpson (Manchester United). Out – Enckelman (Cardiff), Henchoz (released), Friedel (Aston Villa), Bentley (Tottenham).
Win the title? – 500/1.
Fire the Manager! – Paul Ince 20/1.
Synopsis – The jump from League One to the rarified atmosphere of the Premiership is a massive one and Blackburn needs new manager Paul Ince to acclimatize as quickly as possible. One of Ince’s first signings was not a player but veteran coach Archie Knox.
The former right hand man to Alex Ferguson at Aberdeen and in his early days at Old Trafford Knox also spent a considerable amount of time supporting Walter Smith at Rangers and Everton. Knox was released by Bolton at the end of the season and Ince was quick to pounce.
The Rovers/Ince announcement was well accepted by Blackburn fans who had showed a marked preference for Ince over Sam Allardyce. However, a stumbling Premiership start and the new boss will quickly find out that the goodwill and kind thoughts of the summer mean zilch as the sharks begin to circle.
Ince has sought to overcome the loss of ever present goalkeeper Brad Friedel by signing out of favour Paul Robinson from Spurs. Robinson’s form has fallen off dramatically over the last couple of years and he will be hoping for a bit more support from the Blackburn defense than he got from his mates at White Hart Lane.
Playing behind a defense that conceded 48 goals last season will seem like a holiday compared to one that leaked over 25% more. Going in the opposite direction is David Bentley. Under Mark Hughes Bentley’s job was to whip in crosses from the right side (this he succeeded in doing having recorded more crosses than any other player in the Premiership last season) for the likes of Roque Santa Cruz and Benni McCarthy.
It is difficult to question the tactic given the 18 goals from McCarthy two seasons ago and the 19 in Santa Cruz’s debut season last year. Ince has brought in Chilean midfielder Carlos Villanueva who may line up in the centre of midfield.
With the vast majority of the same players in place it is difficult to see how Blackburn could slip into relegation trouble. A more likely scenario is the club dropping a few positions this season as Ince finds his feet.
Season’s narrative – Can Ince fill the very large boots left by Mark Hughes?
Prediction – 13th
Manchester City Past performances (41- 16th, 52-8th, 43-15th, 42-14th, 55-9th)
Rear View Mirror - Elano was the most substituted player in the Premier League last season having being taken off 23 times.
Top scorer last season – Elano (8).
Significant Moves In – Jo (CSKA Moscow), Ben Haim (Chelsea). Out – Isaksson (PSV Eindhoven), Dickov (released), Geovanni (Hull), Mpenza (released), Sun Jihai (Sheffield United), Samaras (Celtic), Corradi (Reggina).
Win the title? – 200/1.
Fire the Manager! – Mark Hughes 20/1.
Synopsis – During Mark Hughes’ almost four year stint at Ewood Park Blackburn finished 15th, 6th, 10th and 7th and exceeded most people’s expectations – particularly those of the Blackburn board. But Hughes is not likely to survive long at Manchester City if he replicates such a record.
After all Sven-Goren Eriksson took City from 14th to 9th and was fired. But as Eriksson pointed out later perhaps his biggest mistake was being successful early in the season. City got off to an absolute flyer predominantly at the City of Manchester Stadium and by the end of October the blue team of Manchester was sitting in third and talk of a Champions League spot was occupying newspaper and blog columns.
At the half mark City had slipped to fifth with draws taking a positional toll. But it got worse - the second half was awful with only 20 points coming from 19 games; 18 goals scored and 31 against.
Hughes primary aim must be to make sure that City do not pick up where they left off at the end of the last season. In particular the last day 8-1 shellacking at the hands of Middlesbrough – a side that would normally have difficulty scoring eight goals against the Little Sisters of the Poor.
Hughes must find a way to build on the strengths of City such as the youth system, full back Corluka, defenders Richard Dunne and Micah Richards, Elano and Petrov in midfield and Benjani and new boy Jo up front.
With Hughes proven organizational ability it is a certainty that City’s defense will get sorted out and quickly. The Welshman will make sure City become a more difficult team to beat – or perhaps a team that beats itself less often!
His attention may then move to getting the best value out of Petrov and Elano. Both started well last season and Petrov generally maintained his form throughout the year while Elano almost disappeared.
If Hughes can get a more consistent performance from Elano and a continuing threat from Petrov then Jo and Benjani can rely on a constant supply of chances.
City’s position come season’s end may not be that much different than 2007/08 but there will be a resilience about the side that has been lacking for decades.
Season’s narrative – Can City under Mark Hughes show more stamina than Sven’s boys did last season?
Prediction – 8th
Tuesday
Bolton Past performances (53- 8th, 58-6th, 56-8th, 56-7th, 36-16th)
Rear View Mirror - Bolton was the only side not to have a player sent off in the Premiership last season.
Top scorer last season – Anelka (10)
Significant Moves In – Muamba (Birmingham), Elmander (Toulouse), Riga (Levante), Shittu (Watford). Out –Teymourian (Fulham), Campo (released), Giannakopoulos (released), El-Hadji Diouf (Sunderland).
Win the title? – 2,000/1.
Fire the Manager! – Gary Megson 7/1.
Synopsis
– Bolton just survived last season after taking a massive gamble and
not signing a replacement for Chelsea-bound Nicolas Anelka last
January. Despite playing only half a season at the Reebok Anelka still
finished up as Bolton’s top scorer with ten goals – twice that of the
next leading scorer, midfielder Kevin Nolan.
Although the goal
production dropped post-Anelka the side chugged along and managed to
garner points at the same rate. Ultimately it was Bolton’s defense that
ensured they would spend at least one more season in the Premiership.
During
the summer Danny Shittu has arrived to add depth and muscle to the back
four while an overpriced Fabrice Muamba should bring a bit of youth and
vitality to a midfield. The signing of Mustapha Riga looks to be an
attempt to replace the mercurial Diouf and to provide some more options
to a side that is largely one dimensional.
In attack Gary
Megson is banking on Swede Johan Elmander to produce the goods at the
sharp end of the park. Elmander enjoyed consecutive 11 goal league
seasons with Toulouse in Ligue Une but matching that output with Bolton
will be a challenge. Elmander and barrel-chested Kevin Davies share
similar styles and it will be interesting to see how or if Megson plays
the two together.
In the end if Bolton is to prosper then they
need to score more goals. However, it is more likely to be their
defense that will once again save their Premiership bacon.
Season’s narrative – Will there be three poorer sides than Bolton?
Prediction – 17th
Manchester United Past performances (78-3rd, 77-3rd, 83-2nd, 89-1st, 87-1st)
Rear View Mirror - Manchester United established a new defensive club record for league play conceding only 22 goals.
Top scorer last season – Ronaldo (31).
Significant Moves In – None so far. Out – Piqué (Barcelona), Simpson (Blackburn), Eagles (Burnley). Win the title? – 11/8.
Fire the Manager! – Sir Alex Ferguson 25/1.
Synopsis
– The word is that United is still interested in bringing in another
striker but so far it has been an-as-you-were-summer as the players
exiting Old Trafford could be regarded as squad players at best. The
most significant departure is that of assistant manager Carlos Queiroz
- again.
This time Queiroz has taken over from Luiz Felipe
Scolari has manager of the Portugal national team and it seems certain
that his term will last longer than his less-than-twelve month sojourn
with Real Madrid in the 2003/04 season.
That spell set off a
span of three successive seasons that first saw Arsenal (03/04) and
then Chelsea (04/05 and 05/06) win the Premiership title. Whether this
was a pure coincidence or cause and effect at work is still a point of
conjecture.
As United go for a third straight title finding
demonstrable weaknesses in the squad is difficult. Van der Sar has
given United their most consistent goal keeping since the departure of
Peter Schmeichel. Club captain Gary Neville missed almost all of last
season through injury and his return should only add to United’s
defensive strength. Evra is coming off a career best season at left
back – quick in the tackle, great raiding forward and with an ability
to recover quickly should anyone get past him.
Vidic and
Ferdinand constitute the most reliable centre back partnership in the
Premiership with Vidic’s willingness to sacrifice life and limb
contrasting and complimenting Ferdinand’s composure and reading of the
game.
Two seasons ago Scholes and Giggs enjoyed Indian Summers
and were key factors in the Premiership trophy returning to Old
Trafford. Now each is well into his 30s and game winning performances
are going to be fewer and further between - the younger generation
needs to pick up the slack.
Ronaldo upon his return will score
goals a plenty once more although perhaps not in the 40+ range we saw
last season. In attack Rooney and Tevez combined as a potent attacking
partnership and with a year under their belts United fans can look for
even better performances this season.
Who will fill in for the
pairing remains an unanswered question. Frazier Campbell who spent a
productive spell at Hull City on loan last season has made a case for
inclusion and there are indications that Ferguson sees the 21-year-old
as a player with an Old Trafford future. However, the future is not
likely to involve big-game appearances this season unless injuries
decimate the squad.
The tall and rangy Angolan striker Manucho
was signed earlier this year but had to be farmed out to Panathiniakos
in the absence of being granted a work permit. The 25-year-old has been
part of the pre-season preparation and United has applied for a permit
for him.
If successful Manucho will provide United with an
attractive option for their arsenal – a striker who can win balls in
the air and pose a physical threat to teams defending deep.
If
there is a doubt about United it might be how they will cope during the
early part of the schedule. Ronaldo will be out until at least the end
of September; Anderson is playing for Brazil at the Olympics; Rooney
caught a virus in Nigeria; Hargreaves is injured once again.
If
United can battle through the first dozen games and stay in touch they
will feel confident that experience and Ferguson’s ruthless drive to
win more trophies can see them through.
Season’s narrative – Do you honestly think it over? Ronaldo blah, blah blah, Real Madrid blah, blah, blah.
Prediction – 2nd
Hull City Past performances - (First Premiership season) Rear View Mirror –
In 2007 Hull City avoided relegation from the Championship by just
three points. In just twelve months they gained 26 more points and rose
from 21st to 3rd in the Championship. Top scorer last season – Campbell (15)
Significant Moves In
– Geovanni (Manchester City), Mendy (PSG), Boateng (Middlesbrough),
Warner (Fulham), ####an (Derby), Gardner (Tottenham - loan), Halmosi
(Plymouth - undisclosed). Out – Livermore (Brighton), Okocha (released), Pedersen (Silkeborg), Campbell (returned to Manchester United), Bridges (Carlisle).
Win the title? – 5,000/1.
Fire the Manager! – Phil Brown 11/1.
Synopsis –
The fact that Hull City is still in existence might be considered a
miracle let alone that they are in the top flight of English football
for the first time ever. The club faced the very real possibility of
liquidation in the mid-90s and again at the beginning of this decade.
Demotion to the Conference was avoided along the way and it took until
three seasons ago for Hull to fight their way back to the Championship.
The first two seasons were precarious to say the least with the
club finishing 18th and 21st in the 24 team league. Former Bolton
assistant manager Phil Brown arrived as caretaker manger in late 2006
and was appointed to a permanent position shortly after. Brown helped
pilot Hull to safety although at this time last year if you had told a
Hull fan that their team would be heading to another division most
would have bet on a drop to League One.
Hull ascent from 18th
to third and a win in the Championship play-off final last year can
only be described as bends-inducing. But Hull’s money troubles in the
past mean the club is approaching the Premiership windfall with a
healthy dose of reality. Money has not been squandered needlessly this
summer.
Tony Warner has been signed to compete with American
born goalkeeper Boaz Myhill. Hull conceded goals at a rate of slightly
over a goal a game in the Championship – only Crystal Palace was better
– so that is an indication that the defense might be one of Hull’s
relative strengths.
Full back Bernard Mendy, who spent a
season on loan with Bolton in 2002/03, signed for Hull this summer
although reports indicate that he has struggled in the pre-season.
Spurs’ Anthony Gardner arrives on loan and should add depth to the
defense.
Midfield additions include Premiership veteran George
Boateng, Geovanni and Peter Halmosi who was considered to be one of the
outstanding talents in last season’s Championship. The Hungarian
generally plays in a wide position in midfield and was outstanding for
Plymouth last season.
As with any newly promoted team goals
will be difficult to come by. Frazier Campbell’s goals helped Hull to
promotion but there seems little chance that he will return to the KC
Stadium other than with Manchester United.
Dean Windass will
make an appearance or two but it is unrealistic to think that he will
play let alone score consistently in the Premiership at the age of 39.
Goal scoring responsibilities will fall to Caleb Folan (former Leeds,
Chesterfield and Wigan) and Craig ####an (Derby). Both will be in their
second spells with Hull but considering that in-combination they have
scored twice in the Premiership double figures will be a fantastic
achievement – in-combo.
It has been an incredible ride for
Hull and their supporters and they have every right to enjoy every
moment. Unfortunately this time next season the pundits will once again
be debating where the club will finish in the Championship.
Season’s narrative – Can Hull exceed expectations and finish second bottom of the Premiership?
Prediction – 20th
Wigan Past performances (N/a, N/a, 51-10th, 38-17th, 40-14th) Rear View Mirror - Wigan kept the assistant referees busy last season – they were flagged offside 137 times.
Top scorer last season – Bent (7).
Significant Moves In – Amr Zaki (Zamalek), Kapo (Birmingham), de Ridder (Birmingham), Cattermole (Middlesbrough). Out – Aghahowa (Kayserispor), Bent (returned to Charlton), Granqvist (Groningen), Cotterill (Sheffield United). Win the title? - 2,000/1.
Fire the Manager! – Steve Bruce 15/1.
Synopsis
– The arrival of Steve Bruce turned the Wigan ship last season as it
headed rapidly towards the relegation rocks. Bruce’s priority was to
tighten up the defense that was leaking goals at an alarming rate.
Bruce cut the average goals against by a third and by season end Wigan
finished in a relatively comfortable position of 14th and had the best
goals against record of any of the bottom half teams.
Bruce
has opted to largely stand pat with his defense although the resigning
of Austrian defender Paul Scharner to a new two-year contract could be
considered to be a critical piece of business by Bruce.
Bruce
has not been shy about returning to his former club to sign players.
When the loan spell for Wilson Palacios expired at Birmingham in
January Bruce stepped in and Oliver Kapo and Daniel De Ridder have now
trodden a similar path.
Bruce has some interesting options in
midfield with some exceptionally skillful players available to him
(Koumas and Valencia) along with some muscle (Michael Brown and now Lee
Cattermole).
Under Bruce goals scored also improved but the
fact that in 38 games Wigan scored only 34 goals shows how anemic the
Wigan attack was at the start of the season. Only Derby County scored
fewer goals last season and so if Wigan is to continue to improve then
more goals have to be scored.
The loan signing of Egypt
international Amr Zaki is perhaps the most intriguing signing of the
summer in the Premiership. Bruce has a number of possible options up
front with the likes of Heskey, King, Sibierski and Henri Camara all
battling for places.
If the Wigan defense can recreate their
second half of the season performance it will give Wigan the chance to
pick up points and secure their Premiership future relatively early.
Season’s narrative – After battling relegation for the last two season’s can Wigan experience the glory days of the 2006 season?
Prediction – 11th
Monday
Sunderland Past performances - (N/a, N/a, 15-20th, N/a, 39-15th)
Rear View Mirror - Sunderland conceded more penalties than any other team last season (9) and only Derby scored fewer goals.
Top scorer last season – Jones (7).
Significant Moves In – Chimbonda (Tottenham), Colgan (Ipswich), Tainio (Tottenham), El Hadji Diouf (Bolton), Malbranque (Tottenham).
Synopsis – After gaining promotion at the end of the 2007 season the Sunderland board backed manager Roy Keane with a huge transfer kitty. The expenditures of over $60m may not have been satisfactorily reflected in Sunderland’s final league position last season but based on survival being the primary objective the job was completed - albeit by only three points.
Now another summer has brought another round of spending from Sunderland and Keane. With goals against of 59 last season defenders might have been a priority although there was a significant improvement in the defensive performances over the second half of the season.
Some of the progress was down to Jonny Evans arriving on loan from Manchester United. Roy Keane wants to make the move permanent but the indication is that Ferguson wants to hold on to the Northern Ireland international. As a defender who can play anyplace across the back four Pascal Chimbonda will prove to be a good investment – at least until some other lawn takes on a greener hue.
Tanio and Malbranque will help to buttress a midfield that surrendered the ball far too easily at times last season. Even so the winter transfer window arrival of Andy Reid turned out to be an inspired piece of business. Reid brought vision and creativity to the side and if Keane can find the right players to compliment Reid then Sunderland fans can look forward to many more chances being carved out.
El Hadji Diouf brings his WWF personality to the Stadium of Light and is another player who in order to prosper needs the right supporting cast. With goal scorers at a premium Sunderland desperately need Kenwyne Jones to make a rapid return from knee surgery.
The big powerful and pacey striker should benefit from having a first Premiership season under his belt and double-figures are mandatory. All things considered Sunderland should progress into the relative safety of a mid-table position early in the season and be able to maintain it.
Season’s narrative – After another summer of spending large gobs of money can Sunderland find mid-table serenity?
Prediction – 12th
Newcastle Past performances - (56- 5th, 44-14th, 58-7th, 43-13th, 43-12th)
Rear View Mirror - Nicky Butt picked up 13 yellow cards in the league – the highest number by any Premiership player last season.
Top scorer last season – Owen (11)
Significant Moves In – Guthrie (Liverpool), Gutierrez (Real Mallorca), Bassong (Metz), Coloccini (Dportivo La Coruna – pending). Out – Rozehnal (Lazio), Carr (released), Ramage (QPR), Emre Belözoglu (Fenerbahçe).
Win the title? – 300/1.
Fire the Manager! – Kevin Keegan 7/1.
Synopsis – Where to start? The return of Kevin Keegan was one of the biggest stories of last season but it so nearly turned sour. The Newcastle fans may have been unhappy with the Magpies’ style under Sam Allardyce but the truth of the matter is that without the points gained under Big Sam, Newcastle would have been in even deeper trouble.
Post-Allardyce Newcastle collected fewer points per game, scored fewer and conceded more. There was a seven-game unbeaten streak in there as well but it only serves to mask the problems facing the club as they approach another critical season.
There is definite feeling that Mike Ashley bit off more than he could chew when he bought out Freddie Shepherd and his crew. Despite stories of how much money Keegan was to be given to bring new players to St. James’ there has been little indication these past months.
Signing Danny Guthrie may turn out to be a good piece of long-term business but a 21-year-old with relatively little top flight experience cannot be expected to have a major impact. Gutierrez arrives from Real Mallorca and he would not be the first foreign player to disappoint the Newcastle fans.
The signing of Argentine centre back Fabricio Coloccini is another that comes with “skeptical” printed all over it. Latin centre backs have generally achieved little success in the Premiership over the years (Carvalho the only success?) and when you consider that Coloccini is not overly quick then Newcastle’s defensive problems may well remain.
The rest of squad is made up of some ill-fitting pieces, injury prone players and all-in-all it is difficult to see how the 2009 season can be anything but another roller-coaster ride of emotions for the Newcastle faithful.
Season’s narrative – Will present owner Mike Ashley stick around or sell-up?
Prediction – 15th
Tottenham Hotspur Past performances - (45-14th, 52-9th, 65-5th, 60-5th, 46-11th)
Rear View Mirror - Tottenham managed to drop 33 points from winning positions in the 2008 season.
Top scorer last season – Berbatov and Keane (15 each).
Significant Moves In – Bostock (Crystal Palace), Gomes (PSV Eindhoven), Luka Modric (Dinamo Zagreb), Giovani dos Santos (Barcelona), David Bentley (Blackburn). Out – Cerny (QPR), Keane (Liverpool), Chimbonda (Sunderland), Robinson (Blackburn), Tainio (Sunderland), Keane (Liverpool), Gardner (Hull City), Malbranque (Sunderland). Win the title? – 50/1.
Fire the Manager! – Juande Ramos 25/1.
Synopsis – In less than a year Spurs under Juande Ramos have won the Carling Cup and moved out of the lower regions of the Premiership into the relatively calm waters of mid-table. They have also in the last seven months undertaken an unprecedented rebuilding of the side.
Alan Hutton and Jonathan Woodgate were brought in to bolster the defense during the January transfer window while Spurs’ fans hope that summer-arrival goalkeeper Heurelho Gomes will prove to be a more reliable shot stopper than Paul Robinson.
Further forward Bentley, Dos Santos and Modric will provide an injection of youth to compensate for the loss of Robbie Keane to Liverpool. Darren Bent will be close to another new addition after spending a lot of time on the bench last season. His pre-season form has been impressive in terms of goal scoring but the question remains as to whether he can regain his Charlton form of a couple of seasons ago.
With the additions there is little doubt that Spurs will once again be one of the most attractive teams to watch. However, the changes are not likely to add up to a fourth place finish as many pundits are predicting.
Goals came relatively easily to Spurs last season (66) and only four teams scored more goals than Tottenham. It also constituted the most goals scored by Tottenham in the last five seasons. The chances of scoring more than 66 goals given the time it normally takes for new attacking players to adjust to a new environment has to be very remote.
So if Spurs are close to topping out as far as goals scored are concerned then any surge into the top four will have to come from a significant improvement in their defensive record.
Last season they conceded sixty one goals – only four teams allowed more. To have a realistic chance of a top four finish Spurs will probably have to find a way to half the number of goals against – not something that teams routinely pull-off.
So if you think Spurs can maintain their level of goal scoring while cutting in half their goals against and add 25-30 points over last season then fourth place it is. Others might just consider it a trifle ambitious and setting up Spurs once more for a fall.
Season’s narrative – Can Spurs move from the fourth best Premiership team in London to the fourth best Premiership side overall?
Prediction – 6th
Portsmouth Past performances - (45-13th, 39-16th, 38-17th, 54-9th, 57- 8th)
Rear View Mirror – Last season midfielder Papa Bouba Diop took 46 shots on the opposition’s goal and failed to score on any of them. Top scorer last season – Benjani (12).
Significant Moves In – Crouch (Liverpool), Ben Sahar (Chelsea), Glen Little (Reading) Out – Sulley Muntari (Inter Milan)
Win the title? – 250/1.
Fire the Manager! – Harry Rednapp 20/1.
Synopsis – If you are a Portsmouth fan who can remember better times than these then you must be, at the very least, close to pensionable age. Not since consecutive First Division titles in 1949 and 50 have Pompey fans had it so good.
With two consecutive top ten Premiership finishes, an FA Cup win and a run in the UEFA Cup coming up fans expectations have risen to an unprecedented level. Ambition only a few seasons ago was survival but no longer.
And with rising expectations come different challenges for Portsmouth and their management team. Playing the role of the gutsy underdog is now gone and Portsmouth will find more teams sitting back this season hoping to hit Pompey on the counter – a tactic that Harry Redknapp’s team has perfected over the last two seasons.
The addition of Jermain Defoe (January) and Peter Crouch gives Rednapp the option of playing two strikers up top as opposed to the lone striker that has been Portsmouth’s default position up to now. In the last two seasons Portsmouth has benefited from fast starts by strikers Kanu (06/07) and Benjani last season. Both racked up 9 goals before the half way point and Pompey need a similar performance from one or both of their new arrivals.
David James will again have his “moments” but will remain the most reliable English goalkeeper in the league. The back four should provide a strong base once again although at 34 Sol Campbell’s performance might begin to tail off. (Written before a very dodgy first half performance against Manchester United in the Community Shield.)
Although there are a number of players that Rednapp can draft in to fill the role played Muntari will be missed in midfield. There also seems to be some financial uncertainty surrounding the club and specifically how much of the Muntari fee should be reinvested in the squad.
If Portsmouth is going to prosper in the coming season then they may have to add a greater degree of flexibility to their tactics and set up. With change comes risk and benefit and this season Portsmouth may discover what is meant by hitting the glass ceiling.
Season’s narrative – Two straight top ten finishes and an FA Cup – how can Harry trump that?
Real Madrid has secured another Spanish Championship, Bayern has done the same with the Bundesliga while Inter remains within touching distance of a third consecutive scudetto.
Elsewhere Ligue Une could take an interesting turn this weekend as leaders Lyon are at home to France’s surprise package AS Nancy.
Nancy leaped over Marseilles last weekend and currently occupies the third and final Champions League spot. To grab the final spot Nancy needs to match Marseille's results over the next two games – this weekend at Lyon and after that at home to Rennes.
If it is goals that you are looking for then AS Nancy is not going to be your cup of tea. They have recorded seventeen clean sheets in 36 starts, conceded a miserly twenty-six goals while scoring a parsimonious forty-two goals.
Lyon have recorded a win, a loss and 3 draws in last 5 matches and are dormie two over second place Bordeaux. However, they can take some comfort from their weekend opponents away record this season – only two wins, ten draws and six losses so far.
Lyon finishes with a match against 15th place Auxerre while Laurent Blanc’s Bordeaux faces two bottom half sides in Sochaux and Lens.
The EPL goes into Sunday’s final games with the title, the remaining UEFA Cup spot and two tickets (complete with parachute payments) to the Championship still to be decided. Although Manchester United appears to have the tougher task they also know that they only have to match Chelsea’s result in order to secure back-to-back Premiership titles for the first time since 2001.
Since taking over at the JJB, Steve Bruce has brought some defensive organization and grit to Wigan. With clean sheets in seven of their last eleven games and thirty-two points from Bruce’s 23 games in charge Wigan are enjoying their best run of results since their early splash when they joined the Premiership back in the 2005/06 season.
On the down side Wigan are facing a United side that has a 100% record in five Premiership matches between the the two while scoring 16 goals to Wigan’s three. Strangely all three goals for Wigan have come from defenders. Toss in for good measure that Steve Bruce’s record against Manchester United is nine matches without a win then the league leaders will go into the game with enough good omens to satisfy the most superstitious of fans.
Chelsea are faced with a situation of doing their absolute best but finding out late Sunday afternoon that even that may not be good enough to capture a third Premiership title in four seasons. Theoretically Bolton are still not safe from the spectre of relegation but it requires not only wins for Fulham or Reading but also a huge winning margin combined with Bolton being taken to the Stamford Bridge cleaners.
It is testament to how badly Reading are playing that even a trip to woeful Derby calls into question Reading’s ability to score a goal let alone get three points. Steve Coppell’s side are on the longest current streak in the Premier League without a goal of 6 matches or 551 minutes and need to better Fulham’s result and at least match Birmingham’s if they are to line up in the Premiership in August.
Derby also has a goal (really two goals) going into this game. Derby needs to score two more in order to overtake the Premiership low of 21 in a season set by Sunderland scored five years ago.
Fulham visits FA Cup Finalists Portsmouth with 3 wins in their last four games and last weekend they finally put together back to back wins this season. Fulham are winless at Pompey (2 losses and 2 draws) but appear to have convinced most fans that they can get the win that they need to stay up.
Birmingham is in the most precarious position – the bottom version of Chelsea. They could put in a season-best performance at home to Blackburn but still not beat the drop if other results conspire against them.
Of the nine Premiership matches between these two only one has been decided by more than one goal. Birmingham’s home record (a single home loss since Christmas) has proved to be their flotation device although by the same token the defense has failed to record a clean sheet since the Boxing Day win over Boro.
If Fulham and Reading should both lose then Birmingham could survive with a draw but playing for such an outcome would be a huge gamble.
It must be difficult to convince supporters of the three Premiership teams located in the north-east of England that it is the season of good cheer. As it currently stands Newcastle, Middlesbrough and Sunderland have played six games over the holiday period and have the sum total of one point to show for it. Even then it required a late equalizer from Mark Viduka to earn the single point against foot-of-the-table Derby County.
A stirring performance against Arsenal in the first week of December seemed to have set Newcastle on the right path as they followed the draw up with wins against Birmingham and Fulham. But the scrambled draw with Derby and an anemic loss to Wigan had Sam Allardyce publically questioning his players.
Full points from these very-winnable four games would have earned Newcastle more breathing space and moved them into a top eight position. As it is, they sit just below mid-table with 26 points with the definite possibility that come the beginning of March that they will not have too many more.
Starting on Saturday with a trip to Stamford Bridge Newcastle will play eight Premiership games with six of them against top half opposition (Manchester City h, Manchester United h and a, Arsenal a, Aston Villa a), and the other two against Bolton and Middlesbrough at St. James’ Park. There is also a tricky FA Cup third round match in two weeks time away to Stoke City who are currently in the top four of the Championship.
With the team again taking two steps forward and three back Allardyce’s position is again the subject of speculation. You get the feeling that if Big Sam is going to survive then Newcastle has to pull off some big results and pick up a few points over the next two months. But there again if you are going to be labeled unpredictable then there has to be good times as well as bad – will this weekend be one of the good times?
Only two weeks after losing their unbeaten home record to Manchester United, Liverpool faces the other Manchester side this Sunday. City’s form over the first eight home games this season was nothing short of spectacular with eight wins, thirteen goals scored and only three conceded. The streak extended to nine with a win over Bolton although it took three second half goals to overturn a 2-1 half time lead for Bolton.
Three days later Spurs came to City of Manchester Stadium and pulled off a 2-0 Carling Cup win while playing for almost an hour with ten-men and Blackburn became the first team to leave with a point in the Premiership when they drew on Thursday.
All the signs seem to be pointing to City’s home streak running short on steam. Liverpool needs to keep winning in order to maintain their title aspirations while if City are to remain in the six more home points are crucial. All things point to a cracking good game.
Everton and Arsenal is another good game in prospect. Out of the top four clubs Arsenal drew the toughest holiday schedule. So far the Gunners have mimicked results from last season with a win over Tottenham and a draw at Portsmouth.
They will be hoping that results against Everton (Saturday) and West Ham (Tuesday) are not replicated as they lost both games last season by the same score - 1-0. Goodison has not being a profitable venue for Arsenal with Everton winning three and drawing one of their last five meetings.
No doubt the Everton coaching staff will have taken notice of Portsmouth’s display on Wednesday in holding Arsenal off the score sheet for the first time this season in the Premiership.
The centre-back partnership of Campbell and Distan were outstanding and the Portsmouth midfield gave Arsenal very little time and space to operate. Everton seem to have similar types of players and with Yakubu and Cahill carrying a scoring threat it could be another tough ninety minutes for Arsenal.
Quick free kicks Manchester United toyed with Sunderland in midweek cutting their defence to ribbons. Roy Keane has to find an experienced centre back to plug the Sunderland defence – and not one from the Championship.
Scoring streaks - Marcus Bent has scored 7 goals in his last 13 Prem appearances - that was over three months. It took him 90 games and over three years to score his previous seven Premiership goals.
Pity Blackburn’s Roque Santa Cruz. He’s scored seven goals in his last four games but during that spell Rovers have lost three games and tied the other.
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites.
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