I really do not know what to make of this. On a weekend when I don’t write a preview the blog gets two hundred plus postings!!! I don’t ever remember hitting a number as high as that even during the World Cup. Am I really needed? Thanks for all the contributions over the last three days – fantastic stuff.
The Gretna fairytale has turned into something much darker as reality set in.
Before step-overs in English football there were comb-overs and Ralph Coates had one of the most famous.
Spurs had some of their legendary players in attendance at the Carling Cup Final. But one legend was tragically struck down in his prime. As a youngster John White’s death was a “Kennedy moment” for me only months after the original “Kennedy moment.”
A piece on Sky’s Jeff Stelling who we see from time to time in North America.
Monday Topic This goes back to the sending off of Marco Materazzi on Tuesday for Inter against Liverpool after receiving two yellow cards. There seems to be a general consensus that by the rules the referee was probably correct but that the eventual punishment seemed harsh.
The “two soft yellow cards and you are off” predicament has been bothering me for a while. On one level tugging on a shirt or holding a player back is cheating and robbing the fans of excitement and entertainment. Same thing goes for time wasting. On another level does the punishment really fit the crime?
And then I found myself reading the latest copy of Champions. The final article is an interview with 1970 World Cup winner Tostao. One of the questions that he was asked was whether he saw the need for drastic rule changes in the game.
He suggested three areas. The first was am electronic chip in the ball to indicate whether or not the ball crossed the line. The second was that it should be forbidden to pass the ball back to the goalkeeper – not just with the feet.
The third suggestion I thought was the most interesting. He said, “I would limit the number of fouls by a player and by a team with a light punishment – perhaps forcing the offending player to be substituted.”
Perhaps that is an option in the case of “two soft yellow cards and you are off” predicament. Why not have the offending player substituted? He’s out of the game and the coach loses a possible substitution – but the team still has 11 men on the field.
If all the substitutions have been made then the team is forced to play with one less player. What do you think or do you have some other creative options?
Craigy_f – 1. Your comment (on Friday) about the ‘top teams’ wanting the ties at this stage of the FA Cup to be ‘easy (pardon my paraphrasing) was spot on. When do you think this kind of thinking emerged? 2. So which two Serie A games did you watch, your thoughts. 3. I’ve seen stuff questioning whether the Tykes can actually claim to be ‘giant-killers” in the FA Cup sense – thoughts? 4. No matter the draw permutations, do you see a final involving two Premier League sides? 5. Do you see the same disdain in other leagues for the domestic cups that seems to exist in the Premier League? 6. When was the last time a midfielder scored 30 goals for a English top flight team? 7. As an analyst on a nationally broadcast TV show do you get invited to many games? 8 Is the number of Premier League clubs left in the FA Cup indicative of: Lack of skill gap in the Leagues, Lack of desire to win it amongst the Premier League teams, The Magic Of The FA Cup, A.N. Other.
Bobby –1. I think it has come about perhaps as a distorted sense of entitlement based on the ever increasing amount of money that comes the way of Premiership teams. 2. Juventus vs. Roma and Genoa vs. Sampdoria. The derby was the most enjoyable for me. Even though it was scoreless until late in the game there were chances and every time Cassano got the ball you felt that something great might happen. He is a fantastic talent – pity that he is such a nutter. 3. Barnsley deserves the moniker after Saturday’s display. 4. If I had to bet on it yes. But I hope not. I would like to see WBA make it. 5. I think a lot of the other leagues are worse in terms of their domestic cup competitions. Many Coppa Italia matches are played in front of ridiculously small crowds and the two leg final in midweek hardly helps. Copa del Rey is a bit better but from what I have seen weakened teams being fielded is common place and again scheduling on midweek days does not give it much prominence. Real Madrid hasn’t won the cup since 1993 and Barcelona since 1998 so that probably tells you something about the priority. The Germans and the French seem to take their cup competitions a bit more seriously and it still has some importance in Scotland. I would suggest that the competition started to be devalued in England when the European Cup Winners Cup was scrapped, and shortly after Manchester United opted for a trip to Brazil.
However as a footnote the FA website had the following piece up on Monday – “The weekend's eight FA Cup Fifth Round ties attracted 248,795 fans, producing an average of 31,099 per tie. This is the highest since 1981, when the average for the completed round was 32,053. In that year the clubs drawn at home were Ipswich, Middlesbrough, Newcastle, Nottingham Forest, Peterborough, Southampton, Tottenham and Wolves”.
6. I can’t think of one - particularly if you are talking league goals. You would have to go back to years to the days of inside forwards who you could argue would be today’s midfielders. In that case it might by the late Dennis Violet for Manchester United in the late 50s when he scored 32 goals. If it goals in all competitions then Matthew Le Tissier would probably be the answer in the mid nineties.
7. No.
8. Fear of negatively impacting on their Premiership position and sometimes the luck of the draw with top flight teams going head-to-head.
LGB or EGB – 1. Do you think Rafa is gone at the end of this year? 2. If so, who’s an ideal replacement? 3. Also, whether it’s Rafa or a new gaffer, where does Liverpool need to strengthen? 4. Where you at all surprised at the result by Liverpool v Barnsley? 5. Have you seen a more under-achieving team than this? In any sport for that matter?
Bobby –1. It is pretty close to the Topic of the Week question so I will keep my powder dry. 2. You need to see who is available - to early to tell. 3. Covered last week and I believe Redfan2000 reposted. 4. Yes. 5. Lots of them – your expectations are higher than mine.
Footiefan - Why didn't Gallas get punished? He clearly made contact with Nani. Doesn't send out a bad message that you can kick someone from behind and get away with it?
Bobby – JayAlves has provided a pretty good summary of the FA’s position on it. When I saw the incident I was sure he was going to get sent off.
Craigy_f – Creative players for Inter - just Figo - you've got to be joking Pele, Stankovic, Jiminez. Right about Ibrahimovic, likes to come deep and create. Cesar is having a good season.
Bobby – Can you see Mancini fielding Pele and Jiminez in a Champions league match against Liverpool? Same comment is probably just as applicable to Cesar. As for Stankovic I haven’t seen much in the way of creativity out of him for at least the last two seasons. Very good player but very little in way of flair anymore.
RINGO - Ron Harris against Cristiano Ronaldo. Who comes out on top? A) On the pitch. B) In a back alley.
Bobby – On the pitch Chopper. In a back alley Ronaldo – because he can run quicker.
Henry14 - Q1 Where would you rate Ronaldo in terms of trophies and individual accomplishments in the list of all time greats? Q2 Spurs v Chelsea who will win? Q3 Is the Barnsley result the biggest Cup shock in this Millenium?
Bobby – Q1. Close to the top ten all time as a player – I don’t know how to rate a player in terms of trophies. He would be a shoe-in to the top ten if he had played more seasons during his prime years. By the time he hit 23 he had a lot of miles on him and a body that was breaking down. Q2 – Tune in Friday and I might hazard a guess. 3. No – I think Shrewsbury knocking Everton out in 2003 was a bigger shock.
Gregz - What is your thoughts on the commentating of Ray Hudson? A bit of an acquired taste isn't he.
Bobby – An acquired taste is a good way of putting it.
Gunner44 - You got all of today’s prediction wrong except Roma/Madrid hope it's the same for the Arsenal-Milan game tmrw.
Bobby – That’s fine but the picks were over the two legs not the first leg. I may be wrong in all of them after two legs but at least give me a chance!
African_Footballer_of_the_Year - The proposed transfer of Daniel Cousin from Glasgow Rangers to Fulham that was agreed on January 22nd is still awaiting FIFA aproval. What gives? Is it really that complicated of a question that it takes nearly a month to make a ruling?
Bobby – I had read someplace that FIFA was awaiting documentation from Fulham and it only arrived at the end of last week. I don’t think they are going to make a decision without having all the right forms filled out.
The USSF makes an interesting selection to lead the under-17 program.
And before we move on I think the comments from the UK’s minister of sport Gerry Sutcliffe are worth addressing. Sutcliffe picked on John Terry’s reported salary, as well as losses run up by Chelsea. He might have done his case more good if he had got his numbers right but even so picking on an individual is out of line and so are his general comments.
Sutcliffe’s comment included "people in the street cannot understand salaries like that.” That might be the case but the same people in the street aren’t likely to understand the kind of money made by entertainers and movie stars or any other highly paid individual.
It’s called the free market and John Terry and other players are entitled to be compared to other stars because that is what they are. They provide millions of people with enjoyment (and stuff to write and comment on!!) every week and any nostalgic longing for the good old days before money ruined the game is beyond nostalgia and is in fact delusional.
Over a century ago the first player was paid to play the game and from that point on it was about money. Before the abolition of the maximum wage in England the money flowed from the spectators to the owners with a relatively small portion finding a way to the players.
At least now players are paid commensurate with the revenue they generate – they are the product, they are who we pay to see. And let us not forget that “we,” as the fans, are complicit in the whole scheme. If we didn’t pay to see a game – either live on the box - or buy merchandise, there would be no money to pay the salaries.
The weekend game previews will be considerable shorter as I will be spending much of Thursday and Friday on airplanes. But here is something to chew over with over a quarter of the Premiership season already in the books.
One of things that I look at regularly is how a team is doing compared to previous years and, more often than not, the season before. The simple approach is to look at the number of games played; the points gained and compare the number to the same point in the season before.
Using that criteria and applying it to the top five finishers from last season the gainers so far are Arsenal (+8) and Liverpool (+6) while Manchester United (-2), Chelsea (-4) and Tottenham Hotspur (-8) have all lost ground. If you are attempting to project these numbers to a league finish in May you have to consider the final league points from 2006/07.
Manchester United 89
Chelsea 83
Liverpool 68
Arsenal 68
Spurs 60
In order to catch Manchester United this season Chelsea would have to gain or United would have to lose 6 points this season. For Liverpool and Arsenal the magic number was 21 points and for Tottenham 29 points.
If you assume from here on the teams would generate the same record this season as they did last season then the league table for the five teams would look like this.
Manchester United 87
Chelsea 79
Arsenal 76
Liverpool 74
Spurs 52
Chelsea’s magic number has grown from 6 points to 8, while Arsenal’s gap is now 14 where it was 21 points at the start of the season. Liverpool’s gap has also closed considerably dropping from 21 to 13 points. In the case of Spurs the gap is now an unachievable 35 points up from 29 points.
However, there is perhaps a more interesting way to compare season to season records. And that is to contrast the records last season to this one against the same opposition.
Because of relegation and promotion you have to make an assumption about the teams that dropped a division and those that came up. For the purposes of this example Sunderland = Sheffield United, Birmingham City = Charlton Athletic and Derby County = Watford.
When you consider this scenario only Spurs are actually doing worse than last season having dropped 2 points over last season. Manchester United and Chelsea are exactly even, Liverpool have picked up 2 points and Arsenal leads the pack having gained 6 points on last season.
Projected to seasons end and assuming no change to last season’s head2head records for the remaining games the positions come out looking like this.
Manchester United 89
Chelsea 83
Arsenal 74
Liverpool 71
Spurs 58
What this ishows is that despite Liverpool and Arsenal making early gains it is still a long road to catch United and Chelsea – even though it doesn’t appear that way when looking at the present table.
Of course you have to consider that given United and Chelsea’s records last season there is more down side than up. However, one area available to Manchester United are the two games against Arsenal – they lost both last season. And of course on Saturday they meet for the first time this season.
Others games that stand out this weekend include Blackburn at home to Liverpool. Don’t expect many goals in this one – we’ve only seen five in Liverpool’s last five visits to Ewood Park. In MLS to second leg of the first round of play offs continue with all three games evenly balanced. We can expect more goals than in the first leg - as we saw on Thursday evening between the Fire and DC United.
Italy has the Italian derby with Juventus against Inter. In Spain Sevilla “welcomes” Liga champions Real Madrid while Atletico Madrid versus Villarreal looks to be an intriguing match.
Craigy_f - (Are you) feeling a tad more confident after beating the Ukraine? What’s your take on Lampard being booed? Are there any other instances like that which you can recall? Do you pay attention to stats in football? Do you read any print media on football?
Bobby – I will not feel confident until there are enough points to finish in the top two. However, the win against Ukraine does guarantee that Scotland will go into the Italy game with a chance of qualifying. As for Lampard being booed – I can’t understand how supposed fans can boo one of their own players.
The same thing happened to Gary McAllister playing for Scotland. A few decades ago it wasn’t unusual for Old Firm players to get bad treatment from the other side of the divide. In terms of the stats question is yes. I do most of my daily reading electronically.
D Powell22 - Has anyone heard of any clubs that are interested in Jozy Altidore? I know he is turning 18 at the end of this year. Is he going to play for a European team next?
Bobby – With his physique and talent I can guarantee that there are a lot of European teams watching him. However, I don’t think it is a slam dunk that he will be off to Europe next year. I also don’t think it is necessarily a bad thing either.
Therealrico - Derek Rae feels South American needs to revamp their WC qualification process. While I do think that Fifa's rankings are fairly BS, I think that the WC and Euro Cup qualifiers need to be revamped using the Fifa rankings. For example all the minnows of Europe or South America I think should have to play a pre qualifier. With countries like the Faroe Islands, San Marino, and so forth having to play in a qualifier to determine who get to go to the next level. Similar to what they do in the champs leagues with teams from places like Wales. This would put less strain on countries like France, or Italy, who have players playing way too many games as it is. What do you guys think?
Bobby – I think the upside of the present South American qualification system has been missed. First of all they are playing games while European countries are either playing WC or Euro qualifiers. In fact South American countries are playing fewer games than European countries as they don’t play a qualifying tournament for the Copa America.
South American countries will play 18-20 games; European countries will play a minimum of 24 games between the two qualifying tournaments. That’s an average of 33% fewer games played by South American countries if you exclude the possibility of a play-off round.
Since South America went to the 18 game qualifying round the gap between top and bottom has narrowed considerably. For example you referenced the minnows of COMNEBOL - who would these minnows be? I can’t think of one South American country that wouldn’t finish in the top four in CONCACAF. You also have to consider that the 18 game format guarantees as far as it is humanly possible that the best 4 (or 5) countries from South America reach the WC finals.
Before the 18 game format it was a case of only 4 or 6 games which significantly increased the chances that a good team would pay a hefty price for an off day.
Finally do you really think if there were less WC qualifying games that the clubs would not simply pick up the slack?
Djnima - 1. Do you think management is the problem at Spurs? I think Jol should go. However Spurs seem to have a problem more with defending rather than management. They rely too much on King and he is always injured. 2. Pls post a new pic on the website without your glasses. 3. Have you seen Fifa 08? Are you into video games? 4. Where do you see Mourinho popping up this season? AC? Inter?
Bobby –1. What is your definition of management? If you are talking about the board then the answer is yes. 2. I don’t have one. 3. No, and no. Jeremy is the guy you want for video games. I’m from a different generation. I'd do just about anything before playing video games. 4. You might not see him popping up any place if all the bigger sides play reasonably well until spring.
Ringo - I say bring back pitches like the old Baseball Ground, Derby. Two months into the season and not a blade of grass left and ankle deep mud. Now THAT was football! I`m planning on watching tomorrow`s Georgia/Scotland game, but I`m not sure which team to root for, could you help me out?
Bobby – Was it at the Baseball ground that Brian Clough perfected his love of over watering? The pitch always seemed to be a mud bath. If I was you, I would support the team with the most surnames beginning with the initial M.
CIAO - What do make of Donadoni as Italy's coach so far?
Bobby – Inconclusive. Italy’s position is a product of a poor start right after the WC last summer. I don’t think you can blame Donadoni for that. However, if Italy fail to qualify then the excuses will count for nothing and he will be gone.
MeanSucka - What do you think of John Terry's sudden knee injury ahead of the Russia match? I'm sure it will give more fuel to the whole "plastic pitch" fire, no? I can't believe some people are comparing Field Turf - which is relatively new to the Astroturf fields of the 80's and 70's. That's pretty bad journalism, isn't it?
Bobby – Terry’s knee was a problem before he got any place close to a “plastic pitch”. Blaming his knee locking on the Moscow pitch? You might as well every other injury on grass surfaces. Newer artificial surfaces versus what we had 20 years ago was the point I made on Monday’s show - it is not an apples to apples comparison.
CIAO -Do you think any of the clubs fighting for CL glory need to bring in any additional players? Are any of the Ajax player cup tied? Do you think Huntelaar will make his long awaited move to a bigger club in January?
Bobby – It very tough to find players that are not cup tied so any “winter” signings tend to play in domestic leagues and allow the players they have replaced to be rested for the European games. Ajax players – if they played – are cup-tied. There were a few posters that were telling me a few months ago that Huntelaar was sure to go to a big club last summer – it did not happen and it may not happen in January either.
Gegz - Don't you think that Ever Banega should be included in the Argentina line-up as he may be the long-term replacement for Riquelme? And don't you think at times Tevez tends to overdo it a bit?
Bobby – I don’t see Banega as a long term replacement for Riquelme – he has a very different style. Having Riquelme in the side dictates that Argentina plays through him – otherwise he doesn’t bring very much to the team.
Banega brings a bit of everything with him - more like a Redondo. Tevez’s strength is his desire and his ability to run at defenders – he would not be the same player if you asked him to do anything different.
Craig_f -The plonker and his mate on Fox are talking about Premier League games outside England, either in the US or Asia. Kind of a mirror of what the NFL is doing with the Giants Dolphins at Wembley.
Bobby – I have no idea why anyone would suggest taking Premier league games outside of England. There is no business case to be made for a move like that. The NFL does it because they need to try and develop an overseas market for their product. That is not a problem for the Premiership. It sounds as if someone may have come up with an answer before making sure that they understand the problem. And to top it off I can only imagine the sanctioning and jurisdictional issues that something like that would create.
I will put up a midweek European Championship qualifying post on Wednesday morning.
Just a quick word or two before we get going this week on some responses. If you have any comments to make about the Fox Soccer Report – good or bad – that don’t directly relate to the soccer highlights could you please e mail them to the address that is regularly shown on the show rather than posting to the blog. Thanks.
Gumbee2005 - What do you think of Maradona’s comments on how he now hates "America"?
Bobby – I spend as much time thinking about what Maradona says about America as I would if Madonna commented on the latest Argentine national team performance.
IanJames – Well, I'm quite happy you were a bit off about the City vs. United game. I stuck with Kasper in my Yahoo Fantasy team, and it very luckily paid off. City didn't deserve the win, but for parity's sake I'm happy that it happened.
Bobby – Even though I said there was no way Manchester United was going to lose I had picked Richard Dunne as my captain for the midweek round of games – shut out and double points. I forgot to make a change for the weekend round of games and got lucky as well!!
Shmish – Re comments about more scoring opportunities and fewer players.
Bobby – You make an excellent point about the number of scoring opportunities created. Likewise the reduction of the number of players. Without necessarily advocating this as a solution and for the point of discussion what about enlarging the size of the field together with the size of the goal?
CIAO - Do you think Arsenal need to bring in a keeper before the window closes? If so, that you know of aside from Amelia are there any keepers that would be worth making a move for? How do you rate Arsenal's current keepers (Jens, Almunia and Fabianski)?
I guess the questions also brings up the German national team... Would you agree with me that they should hand over the gloves to Hildebrand?
Bobby – It would be very unlike Wenger to sign another keeper at this stage. If he is unhappy with Lehmann then I think he will go with Almunia. I thought when we saw Almunia last season he looked to have improved but still dodgy on crosses. I haven’t seen anything of Fabianski and I think you have to regard him as one for the future rather than someone who is likely to step up this season. If Hildebrand had progressed like he should have he might have been the WC keeper in 2006. But his 2005/06 season was poor although he recovered last season.
Ummufan - Any teams that look to dip into the transfer market that thought they were done? (Man Utd for a striker/LB, Arsenal for a keeper, Bolton for a manager?)
If City was a "really need to win" game, Tottenham becomes a MUST win. But not as dire as last year. I sense with the big 4 beating on each other and an improvement in quality of the top 10 overall we will see a champion in the low 80's rather than 90's. There is still hope United aren't cooked yet (emphasis on 'hope').
Bobby – I don’t think too many teams with a transfer budget left. Managers build squads with a view to taking care of injuries, poor form and suspensions so I don’t you will suddenly see Fergie or Wenger making panic buys. It’s not like they have lost players for the season. If Sammy Lee is fired before 20 games are up then chairman Phil Gartside needs to fall on his sword first. I could see 85 points winning the league this season.
LetsGoBuffalo - Does anyone know if Styles was punished after last year's opener between Liverpool and Sheffield United?
Bobby – He was not.
Bigdavedisaster – I think that people, myself included, have been waiting for a team to compete with the big 4 for a while now. I know its early this season but are we more likely to see a group of teams over the next couple of years get better together Man City, Everton, Spurs, Newcastle, Villa all together with the added money of new ownership and the EPL instead of just one team making it the big 5 like Chelsea made it the big 4?
Bobby – There was an article that I posted earlier this season from the Guardian (I think) that made the point that with the influx of new TV money that this was the chance for the mid table teams to strengthen their squads and close the gap. I’m also hoping that it happens. I can see a tighter title race with more than two teams involved and a couple of teams (at least) close the gap between #4 and the rest.
Red Skin - Why no matches featuring Liverpool on FSC for the whole month of September?
Bobby – Sorry but I have nothing to do with how the station is programmed. You need to e mail or call FSC.
Foxcube - Will you modify your EPL one after August 31 when the transfer market closes?
Bobby–Nope. If you change predictions after the transfer market closes then why not wait until the winter transfer window closes? At some point you just need to make a call and stick with it.
David Conn on the success enjoyed by FC United. Stuart James looks at the Premiership play-offs. A debate between Graham Taylor and Joe Royle on the merits of the loan system. The Guardian’s list of strikers who may be in demand this summer. Tony Cascarino on the 2006/07 season’s best buy Dimitar Berbatov. Bill Edgar also sorts out the various permutations for the UEFA Cup spots.
And now to the preview.
The Bundesliga takes top spot this weekend as we reach the penultimate round and three teams are still in contention for the title. Schalke leads with 65 points, followed by Stuttgart on 64 and Werder Bremen are third on 63. By the looks of it Schalke and Stuttgart have the more difficult games although circumstances could conspire to give Schalke their first ever Bundesliga title this weekend.
Borussia Dortmund and 80,000 fans await Schalke who have not lost in Dortmund since 1998. However, three consecutive wins have seen Dortmund move out of relegation trouble and now sit in the top half of the table. Schalke’s final game next weekend is at home toArminia Bielefeld.
Stuttgart can still complete the domestic double and plays Nuremberg in the German Cup Final on May 26. Stuttgart are on a six-match winning run and are away to Bochum another side that has been enjoying a fine run of form. Bochum were Bundesliga 2 champions last season and have won their last three in a row and six of their last 8. Greek striker Theofanis Gkekas is the man that Stuttgart must watch. He has scored thirteen goals in the last 11 games and it looks like he will be playing for Bayer Leverkusen next season. Energie Cottbus will be Stuttgart’s final opponent next weekend.
Werder Bremen’s opponents Eintracht Frankfurt sit just above the relegation zone in 14th position and are not yet guaranteed Bundesliga football next season. Bremen’s last match is against another side haunted by the threat of relegation - Wolfsburg .
There are a raft of games in Spain that impact on both the top and bottom of La Liga. Fresh from a Copa del Rey thrashing from Getafe Barcelona are up against strugglers Real Betis. Betis have gone eight games without a win and travel to the Nou Camp where Barcelona have yet to lose a league game this season.
Good fortune is with Real Madrid at the moment and this weekend they face mid-table Espanyol in a game that looks tricky. However, Espanyol has a UEFA Cup Final next Wednesday in Glasgow and are likely to rest and number of their players.
Real Madrid have now won six of their last seven and are within two points of the leaders. Van Nistelrooy is now the leading scorer in La Liga with 20 goals. David Beckham and Robinho are both suspended for this game. Espanyol are without a win at the Bernabeu since 1996 and in the last two visits they lost by four goals each time.
Espanyol stand between Sevilla and a repeat UEFA Cup win. Although by losing to Real Madrid last weekend Sevilla slipped back to third in the table, they still have a chance to do a treble. They also have Sevilla just two points behind. This weekend Sevilla plays Recreativo de Huleva the oldest club in Spain. Recreativo are having a terrific season and are pushing for a spot in next season’s UEFA Cup.
At the other end of the table it is 18th vs. 16th with Celta Vigo playing Levante. Celta have lost their last 3 and have only one win in their last 10. The arrival of Hristo Stoitchkov as coach has done little to stem the bleeding. Levante have only two away wins and Celta have with only 2 home wins so a draw would not be a surprise. In fact Celta Vigo would probably prefer to play away from home given that they have taken 18 of their 30 points on the road.
The bottom two teams Gimnastic and Real Sociedad face each other. A loss for Gimnastic would mean almost certain relegation as it would leave them at least nine points from safety with only 12 points still to play for. Real Sociedad’s position is not much better and are only three points better off than Gimnastic. Sociedad gained their only win on the road in their last away game against Real Betis.
All eyes on the Premiership will be on the games at Old Trafford and Bramall Lane. These matches will decide the final relegation spot. A draw or better for West Ham away to nine time Premiership Champions Manchester United will secure Premiership football next season – as long as the civil legal system does not become involved. Wigan know that anything less than a win against fellow strugglers Sheffield United will drop them back to the Championship after two seasons of Premiership football.
A draw is good enough for Sheffield although they could survive even if they and West Ham both lose. Three teams would then be tied on 38 points but Wigan would have a better goal difference than Sheffield. The last spot would then depend on how many goals Sheffield and West Ham lose by on Sunday.
While two teams will be happy come Sunday night the Premiership play offs get underway on Saturday.
If West Bromwich Albion manages to win the play-offs and join Birmingham and Sunderland in net season’s Premiership it will be the first time since 1914-15 that all the teams relegated from the top flight will bounced straight back. Back then it was Preston North End and Derby County achieved the feat. Southampton needed to win their last three games of the regular season to make it into the play offs for the first time. But for manager George Burley it is his seventh play off series and so far he has only experienced one success. Derby manager Billy Davies has had a team (Preston North End) in the play offs the last two years and has gone out at the semi and final stages. Derby won regular season series with a win and a draw. The strikers to watch out for are Steve Howard (Derby) with 16 goals and Grzegorz Rasiak of Southampton – a former Derby player before a move to Spurs – with 18 goals.
The other semi final is the Black Country derby between Wolves and West Brom. At the midway point Wolves were down in 14th spot but worked there way up to a 5th place finish. Goals were a problem for Wolves – 59 was the lowest total of teams finishing in the top ten – but they did get into a good habit of winning tight games. Wolves had seven 1-0 wins away from home. On the other hand West Brom scored more goals at home (51) than any other side. The season series was split with a win each.
Play off predictions anyone?
Jeremy St. Louis and I will be in Toronto this weekend to augment the FSC crew as they broadcast the Toronto FC vs. Chicago Fire match. We are both looking forward to seeing BMO Field for the first and enjoying the atmosphere generated by another full house of almost 20,000 fans.
A question from atleti_female " are there any similarities between Leeds' relegation slump and Nottingham Forest's relegation in 05/06"?
atleti – A good question. I would say that when Forest were relegated in 1993 it was looked upon as the end of a typical cycle albeit a cycle that had, in the case of Forest, been more successful than anyone could have imagined. You have to take into consideration that between 1963 and 1993 only Everton, Liverpool and Arsenal had spent the entire time in the top flight. The likes of Manchester United, Spurs, Chelsea and Leeds had all been relegated during that period. Forest bounced back only to be relegated again in 1997 and it was after that they dug themselves into a deep financial hole.
Forest spent a lot of money on some very bad players especially when David Platt was in charge. There was a spell with Paul Hart as manager when they looked as if they were going to rebound and at one point they made it to the Championship play offs only to lose in the semi final. Good young players were sold – Jermaine Jenas and Michael Dawson come to mind - and lacking resources their play deteriorated and then they dropped to the old third division.
The Leeds problem was a lot more complex although money – or the owing of it – has been the overwhelming issue. Leeds “business model” was based on spending – or borrowing through various means - gobs of money on players (normally young players who would improve) in order to establish the club as a major force in England and Europe and to then reap the massive financial rewards. The assumption was that if things turned for the worse then the players could be sold and the money spent – or the money borrowed to buy the players – could be recouped.
It all started to go wrong the season they reached the Champions League semi final only to lose to Valencia. They overreached and failed to finish in the top four in the Premiership that same season and so missed a CL spot for the next season. Although the Bosman ruling had come down in 1996 the full ramifications took a number of years to filter through the system and it was around 2001 that clubs began to fully understand that the ruling meant a major change in the way that they needed to do business. Instead of paying large fees to a club they could wait for a contract to end and then get the player without a transfer fee – e.g. Sol Campbell to Arsenal from Spurs. The other possibility was to pick up a player for a mere pittance of a transfer fee if they were in the last 12 months of their deal.
Essentially Leeds was operating on a model that considered players as assets that at least held their value and hopefully increased in value. The reality was that with the exception of a few of the very best players, fees paid for players became sunk costs and in most cases players were actually depreciating assets. Interestingly the only case I can think of when the Leeds model actually paid off was in the case of Rio Ferdinand who they made a significant profit on after buying him from West Ham and selling to Manchester United.
Leeds situation also included the infamous Bowyer/Woodgate alleged assault on an Asian student that went to court. Then Manager David O’Leary wrote a book that included significant comment on the case and a lot of Leeds fans and observers believe that O’Leary’s decision to sell his opinion undermined morale in the dressing room and so began a death spiral. As clubs realized that Leeds were desperate to raise cash the more they hedged knowing that the longer they waited the lower the fee became.
Even with new ownership Leeds has been unable to break free of the debt monster. While maintaining some of the highest – if not the highest – ticket prices outside of the Premiership the debts that remain have essentially crippled the club. Last season Leeds came close to regaining a Premiership position but it proved to be a false dawn. Now life in League One beckons.
It took Chelsea a replay before they managed to move past Spurs in the 6th round of the FA Cup and into the semi final. Both games were outstanding adverts for the FA Cup and as the old cliché goes, neither side deserved to lose.
Now Chelsea faces a Premiership side in consecutive rounds and this time it is at a neutral venue, Old Trafford. The opposition is a side that has won the trophy more times than the Pensioners although the last Blackburn Rovers win was back to 1928. Seventy-nine years is quite the barren stretch but the real glory days for the Rovers go back even further to the latter part of the 19th century.
In the eight seasons from 1884 to 1891 Blackburn Rovers won the FA Cup five times including three consecutive victories in the first three of these years. (Another Blackburn club the Olympic, won the Cup in 1883 and became the first team from outside of London to do so.)
The first two FA Cup wins by Blackburn Rovers were both against Scottish amateur side Queen’s Park. In 1884 the team from Glasgow came a cropper due to the application of a different offside rule. In Scotland only two attackers had to be between the attacker and the goal, while in England it was three. Queen’s Park had two goals disallowed and lost 2-1. The next season Queen’s Park lost 2-0 and a year later Rovers completed a straight hat trick of wins (the last team to do so) by beating West Bromwich Albion 2-0 in a replay after a scoreless draw.
In 1928, in only the sixth final played at Wembley, Huddersfield Town was shocked 3-1. Huddersfield Town finished as double runners-up that season as a Dixie Dean (59 goals) inspired Everton beat them to the League title. Since then the only other appearance for Blackburn Rovers in an FA Cup Final was in 1960 when Wolverhampton Wanderers won 3-0. The final was not considered memorable and when discussed it is usually the career ending injury to Rovers’ Dave Whelan that is remembered. Whelan after failing to cover finally took an insurance settlement, parlayed it into a fortune, and now owns Wigan Athletic.
A semi-final loss to Arsenal in 2005 is the furthest Blackburn had reached since 1960 and now they – along with Watford – they have a chance to upset what seems to most fans dream final of Chelsea against Manchester United. The road to what might be a first FA Cup Final in 47 years, started with an emphatic 4-1 away against Everton. In the 5th round it was another four goals scored away from home and this time Luton Town were the victims.
Round 5 brought a hard-earned scoreless draw against Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium followed by an 87th minute winner that flew off the boot of substitute Benni McCarthy to take the replay. Manchester City fell in the last round this time by a score of 2-0. So after playing four rounds and five games Blackburn has still only conceded one goal – scored by Everton’s Andy Johnson. The line-up of officials for Sunday’s game at Old Trafford is as follows; Referee – Alan Wiley, Assistant Referees – Cann and Ward, Fourth Official – Mark Clattenburg.
Here is a link to the latest news from the official FA Cup website and FA Cup payments that the clubs will receive.
Past Featured Games Extra Preliminary Round Jarrow Roofing Boldon C.A. 5-2 Billingham Synthonia. Preliminary Round Jarrow Roofing Boldon C.A 5-4 Thackley F.C First Qualifying Round Fleetwood Town 3-0 Jarrow Roofing Boldon C.A. Second Qualifying Round Fleetwood Town 4-2 Goole AFC Third Qualifying Round Fleetwood Town 2-0 Warrington Town Fourth Qualifying Round Fleetwood Town 2-0 Wisbech Town First Round Salisbury City 3-0 Fleetwood Town Second Round Salisbury City 1-1 Nottingham Forest Second Round Replay Nottingham Forest 2-0 Salisbury City Third Round Nottingham Forest 2-0 Charlton Fourth Round Chelsea 3-0 Nottingham Forest Fifth Round Chelsea 4-0 Norwich City Sixth Round Chelsea 3-3 Tottenham Hotspur Sixth Round Replay Tottenham Hotspur 1-2 Chelsea
A lively blog again this week as far as comments and opinions are concerened.
Henry14-1. Who do you think will win the title given that both teams are in Europe and FA Cup & also looking at the runs left for them? 2. l personally fancy Sheffield to stay up because of their matches at home left who do you think will drop? 3. How do you assess Klose this season? 4. It pains me to say this but l really see that Spurs have made big strides in the last two years do you know when they can ever win the title? 5. Lastly l disagree with what you said on the show that Benitez's rotation is paying dividends, l think it is because they were knocked out of domestic cups, so they were no replays because Arsenal played 7 domestic cup games after Liverpool, Man Utd. had 5 and Chelsea had 6 so l think that’s the main reason up to now. 6 Do you think Fergie regret letting Larsson go?
Bobby–1. I picked Chelsea at the start of the season and I am not jumping ship even though United have the lead and an easier stretch-run. 2. With Rob Hulse out Sheffield United will struggle to score goals and that is their biggest challenge going into the last 6 games. 3. I haven’t seen enough of Klose this season to really comment. He seems to be off his usual goal scoring pace although he is still Bremen’s top scorer. 4. They will some day but I can’t see it in the near future. 5. Fair point but if Liverpool had won the cup games Benitez would have still rotated his squad. 6. Not after today’s display!
LosAngelesChelseaFan - Chelsea are certainly capable of dumping Valencia on Tuesday, since I suspect that stamina rather than skill will dominate the outcome of all competitions. We shall see. What’s your considered opinion of all this? What do think is more important for all these teams right now, (a) heart and will to win? (b) stamina? (c) quality and skill? (d) most recent result? ... and which one has it?
Bobby – All of the above plus momentum and some well-timed slices of luck ?
Flashman - Toronto FC looked competitive in their MLS debut at Chivas. Obviously, any MLS squad has flaws, but TFC didn't look like an expansion team to me. Greg Sutton looks solid in net and they generated some excellent scoring opportunities early on. Still some work to do in defense. Do you see this team rewarding the Hogtown Massive - sold out at 20,000 for every game this year - by diving in and snagging a big name player? If so, at what position? Also, as the streets of London's toney Islington district yet again run brown with fear, do you think Arsenal can hang on to a UEFA Cup qualifying position as they free fall this spring down the Prem standings? Who do you see them losing due to their inability to compete financially with bigger clubs in Yorkshi - er, umm, Europe?
Bobby – I would be surprised if Toronto go the “big name” player route this year. I think Mo Johnston has already said that he is not interested and with a sell out almost guaranteed there isn’t a financial incentive to make a move like that. I think they would be better off spreading the wealth around a bit in an attempt to improve the overall quality of the team. I think Sutton is a keeper – in more ways than the positional sense – but I didn’t see anything else that gave me much encouragement. But, there again it is early days, so maybe a fairer assessment can be made after 10 games. The games against Bolton and Spurs will be important over the next two weeks but I think Arsenal will hold on to 4th place.
jeffers77 - Any thoughts on Tottenham and Sevilla? I think Tottenham has a good chance on Thursday, that penalty against Robinson was ridiculous; a 1-1 score would have been a fair result. Do you feel they have a chance at WHL and if they do go on, what do you think their chances are of winning the whole thing?
Bobby – The penalty was an atrocious decision. If Spurs are to go through then I think scoring first is almost mandatory. Perhaps the bigger question is can the Spurs back four keep Sevilla from scoring.
Henry14 - l wanted to know the requirements of entering the Intertoto cup and if the Gunners qualify.
Bobby – Here is a link to who is eligible. This link gives the reason for the competition – I think it might surprise you.
Ringo - Can someone explain how Portsmouth can beat Man U and then lose to Watford? Unless the Asian betting syndicates were involved!
Bobby – The only logical conclusion is that if Watford were in Serie A then they would be a serious challenge to Inter this season!
Henry14 - Who is a better winger Quaresma or Ribery or rather player because l thought Quaresma had the edge.
Bobby – I woud take Ribery. He seems a bit more robust to me.
Realmadridcffan - 1. Out of all the soccer magazines that are published, which is your favourite and your least favourite? 2. How would you rate the performances of DC United and the Houston Dynamo in the recent CONCACAF Champions Cup semi-final? What do you think it will take for an MLS side to actually win the CONCACAF Champions Cup? 3. Besides the Houston Dynamo and DC United, who do you see as a dark horse(s) for the MLS Championship this year?
Bobby – 1. Favourite(s) – When Saturday Comes, Champions (the UEFA mag) and World Soccer. The least favourite – there are a number of them. The magazines that I have the most trouble with are the ones that just lift pieces and drop them into the magazine – Soccer Italia a prime example – and they are often contradictory stories. Page 3 states Fabio Star Defender wants a transfer to Real Madrid; Page 7 Fabio Star Defender says “I will never leave.” 2. I thought both teams did very well. When Brian Ching scored with only minutes left I thought Houston were going to do it. As far as what is needed - experience obviously helps and I don't think a MLS side winning the CONCACAF Champions Cup again in the next three or four seasons is out of the question. 3. Dark horse - well with a 13 team league it pretty difficult to be a dark horse. However, i can see Chicago Fire challenging DC United in the east and I liked the look of Colorado Rapids on Saturday so they might be the team to watch in the west.
djnima19 – 1. Do you think losing Vidic will cost United the title? 2. Is Foster or Kuzscak a better keeper than Edwin for next season? 3. Who would you like to see coming from La Liga to the EPL next season?
Bobby – 1. Not necessarily although he does leave a large hole in the defense – a lot can happen in the next half a dozen games. 2. I don’t think you can consider Foster or Kuzscak better than van der Sar. Kuzscak, for the rather obvious reason that he is currently the back-up. In Foster’s case he has been playing with very little pressure on him so it is a very unfair comparison at the moment. It is not unusual for keepers to look better playing in a poorer team because they get more chances to shine. With better sides I think that keepers need to concentrate more because of the lack of action. Foster is still very young for a keeper and he certainly looks like he has the potential to be a very good goalie. 3. There is always a big gulf between who we would like to see and who is available. Even with Premiership riches you can’t have all the great players. Goalscorers are high on everyone’s list so the likes of David Villa, Fernando Torres and Diego Milito will probably be targets.
LosAngelesChelseaFan - I have a few questions: 1. Can you recommend a theBLEEP who specializes in Depressive Goonophrenia? 2. Do you think asking over and over again if Thierry Henry will leave Arsenal at the end of the season is a symptom of the above condition? 3. Do you think if Arsene Wenger wears the grey suit with the grey tie at next week’s game against Bolton, it will bring him more of the bad luck that caused them to lose the double against Whamo Utd for the first time since 1965? 4. Do you think hell is a place: a) populated by Arsenal players who pass the ball for endlessly, but who never shoot at the goal or b) a place where there’s a soccer game in which the referee is being chased by a complaining Wane Rooney for all eternity?
Bobby – 1. Dr. George Graham. 2. No it is a condition caused by the Vieiraitis virus that was limited to Highbury for a period of five years although it was thought to have been eradicated. 3. Only if he wears it with the standard Sam Allardyce earpiece. 4. Hell is what North America was to soccer fans 20 years ago.
Verbal97 – 1. Does Dumfermline stand a chance to a) stay up in the SPL and b) to make it to the Scottish Cup Final? If they make the finals and play Celtic, would they get a UEFA Cup spot like in the FA Cup? 1 c. Also, how do you rate Adam Hammill, if you've seen him? 2. Also, do you think Abramovich will fire Mourinho this week WHEN Chelsea lose to Valencia or will he wait for the end of the season?
Bobby – 1a. Stephen Kenny seems to have whipped the Pars into much better shape and they now have at least a fighting chance of survival – four points behind St. Mirren with five to play. 1b. They beat Hibs last weekend in the SPL and they face each other again this Sunday in the Scottish Cup semi final. If they do make it and finish up facing Celtic (who play St. Johnstone on Saturday) then a UEFA spot is guaranteed. 1 c. I haven’t seen him and to be honest no one that I correspond with in Scotland has mentioned him. 2. I guess that now changes to “WHEN Chelsea lose to Liverpool.”
Neophyte – 1. What do you think about Riquelme coming to the Prem? or another La Liga team? What ever happened between Villarreal and Riquelme? You can clearly see that without him they're just middle to bottom of the Liga. 2. What do you see SAF doing about the obvious aging midfield at Old Trafford? Does Scholes get the same treatment as Becks and Keane? Is Giggs' time up as well?
Bobby – 1. I never thought there was much of a chance of Riquelme moving to the Premiership at the end of last season and so I think that there is almost no chance now. Most likely destination – where he is now, at Boca Juniors. Next – a return to Villarreal. Then – who can guess? It seems that Miguel Pellegrino and Riquelme just fell out – it can’t have been anything that important or we would have already heard all the lurid details. 2. Manchester United have clearly benefited from the incredible seasons that Scholes and Giggs have had. Unless they “misbehave” – and there is no reason to believe that will be the case – Ferguson will be dumping either of them out. Well deserved testimonials for these two – someday.
The Easter holiday fixture list in England has, on many occasions, proved to be a turning point in the title race. With the second leg of the Champions League quarter finals set for Tuesday and Wednesday, all three English teams left in the competition as well as Spurs will only play one Premiership game this weekend. In all twelve teams face double headers.
The top game has Chelsea facing Spurs for the fourth time this season and the previous three have been excellent games. These clubs are second and third in the top flight's "form" table and Chelsea are looking for an eighth straight league win while Spurs are trying for a sixth successive Premiership victory.
Manchester City and Fulham play each other Monday and by the time the full time whistle is blown either of these clubs could be safe for another year. On Friday Fulham plays Everton at Goodison in a match up that has seen the home club win every time over the 11 premiership encounters. Also on Friday, City have a massive six-pointer with a Charlton side that has generated momentum over the last month.
Other games that catch the eye over the next three days include; Reading v Liverpool (Saturday); Bolton vs. Everton (Monday); Charlton vs. Reading (Monday); Portsmouth v Man Utd (Saturday); Arsenal v West Ham (Saturday); and Newcastle v Arsenal (Monday). The Scottish League plays one more round before the split although there looks to be precious little to decide.
The Championship continues to be beat it’s elder cousin the Premiership in terms of competitiveness and uncertainty. The pick of the games is Sunderland vs. Wolverhampton.
In the Bundesliga it is case of the top versus the bottom with Schalke 04 playing every football fan’s favouritre abbreviation Borussia M'gladbach. M‘Gladbach fans cannot blame their defense for their present predicament – they have only let in 33. Goals at the other end have been the problem – only 22 - and their away form has been atrocious with only 5 points gained on the road. M‘Gladbach also have a tough run-in. They still have to play in form Hamburg, 7th place Hannover, Stuttgart, Bayern Munich, before finishing off against relegation rivals Mainz and Bochum.
Empoli are the surprise packet in Serie A this season and this Saturday they travel to the San Siro with a lead of one point over Milan. Founded in 1920 this is only their 7th season in Serie A and last season was their best ever finish – 11th and 45 points. Empoli have already equaled their best-ever points total and still have 9 games left. Top scorer is Luca Saudati with 9 goals and he is a man who fits the description of having had more clubs than Jack Nicklaus – 13 different moves between clubs and this is his 4th spell with Empoli. He started his career with Milan.
In Spain the biggest game would appear to be Real Zaragoza versus Barcelona. Of the last 17 games between these two Barcelona has won 8 and drawn 4. Zaragoza has already beaten beat Barcelona this year 1-0. The win came at the Nou Camp in the Copa Del Rey but they lost 2-1 at home and were knocked out. Zaragoza have only lost twice at home this season – back to back in December to Osasuna and Valencia.
Their top scorer Diego Milito with 11 goals - last season he had 15 - was with Genoa when they won Serie B but they were refused promotion because they were caught match fixing. He then moved to Real Zaragoza to replace David Villa when he moved to Valencia and it now looks that Milito may move again this summer – perhaps even to Barcelona.
Last but certainly not least the MLS get underway this weekend. While the media attention has been on the Beckham signing and others such as Blanco the fact is we are going to see neither of these players before mid-season. This weekend expansion club Toronto FC takes a first bow at the Home Depot Centre where they will face Chivas.
Gunner 44 - 1. Race between Man U and Chelsea will come down to the wire. Arsenal might play the biggest part in deciding who gets to lift that title with that game just before Chelsea faces Man U.
2. Race for Player of the Year will come down to what Drogba and C. Ronald
