Croatia v Turkey Preview – Reaching the quarterfinal stage of the European Championships matches Croatia and Turkey’s best ever performances. For Croatia their previous appearance in the final eight came in 1996. They beat Turkey 1-0 (a late goal from Vlaovic) in the group stage before losing 2-1 to the eventual winners, Germany.
Four years later, Turkey last 2-0 to Portugal in the quarterfinals. In both cases Croatia and Turkey went on to enjoy great runs at the World Cup finals two years later. Both countries became surprise semifinalists and both finished third.
Only time will tell whether either or both can use Euro 2008 as a launching pad for further success in 2010. Both coaches will have more urgent matters on their mind. In the case of Slaven Bilic the biggest worry may be that very little has gone wrong so far.
Despite losing Eduardo da Silva to a broken leg before the tournament, Croatia has operated as a well oiled machine. The defense has been solid, Niko Kovac has provided an effective defensive shield in midfield, while Srna, Modric and Kranjcar have looked lively and effective behind the lone striker Olic.
Even after making mega changes to the starting eleven for the mean-nothing final game of group play against Poland, Croatia still won handily. Comparisons have already been made with the team of a decade ago. Perhaps this Croatian team will evolve into the best ever but it seems premature to compare this team against the likes of Asanovic, Prosinecki, Boban, Jarni and ####.
Bilic started the first game against Austria with two men up front but changed to a lone striker against Germany. The latter formation provided an extra man in midfield and allowed the likes of Kranjcar to attack from deep positions. Expect to see Bilic sticking with a 4-1-4-1 from here on.
We knew going into the competition that Turkey was unpredictable. However, in the three performances so far the word unpredictable gets no place close to what we have seen. On the back foot for most of the game against Switzerland they grabbed a late winning goal as the Swiss pushed forward.
Then came the dramatic finish against the Czech Republic. No one can doubt the fighting spirit of Turkey. But their performances have come at a price. The casualty list is extensive - defender Servet Cetin, Tumer Metin, Emre Gungor and Emre Belozoglu are all either definitely out or extremely doubtful. Suspensions also mean that goalkeeper Volkan Demirel and Mehmet Aurelio are unavailable.
Aurelio in particular will be badly missed. The Brazilian born defensive midfield player has been outstanding in the tournament. In goal we can anticipate that one of the heroes from 2002, Rustu Recber will step in.
Following the World Cup in 2002 Recber transferred to Barcelona but it proved to be an unhappy move. He returned to Turkish football after one season and now at 35 he he has been given another opportunity on the European stage.
The odds are stacked against Turkey and it will need a colossal performance to beat Croatia today.
Referee: Roberto Rosetti, linesmen: Alessandro Griselli, Paolo Calcagno (all Italy), fourth official: Manuel Mejuto (Spain)
Match Report
Croatia 1-1 Turkey (Turkey wins 3-1 on penalties)
If you ever want to show a
player or a team why you should never give up, point them towards Turkey’s performances
at Euro 2008. Each dramatic finish has topped the one before but you have to
wonder how they can possibly beat this one.
After 119 minutes without a goal
Klasnic took advantage of a mental error by Turkish goalkeeper Rustu Recber and
looked to have put Croatia through to a semifinal meeting with Germany. Recber was
caught out of his goal and was beaten to a loose ball by Modric. The midfielder turned neatly and chipped the
ball to a waiting Klasnic who was left in front of an unattended goal.
It was almost
inconceivable that with only seconds left that Turkey could recover from such a
death blow. But recover they did and
more. Recber pushed everyone forward and pumped a free kick into the Croatia
penalty area. The ball broke to Semih Senturk who had come on after 75
minutes and he lashed shot past an astonished Pletikosa.
It was then to penalty
kicks and it was clear that Turkey held a clear psychological advantage. They had
fought through a depleted starting lineup, suspensions and conceding a late
goal in extra time and and while Turkey knew that they’d come back from a near
death experience, Croatia knew that a lapse in concentration had let Turkey off
the hook.
When Modric put the first
penalty wide the writing was on the wall.
Of the four Croatia penalties only Srna scored while Turkey was
successful with all three attempts.
Some may describe this
game is drab, others as a game dominated by defenders. But Croatia could have
built themselves a healthy lead before the halfway mark in the first 45 minutes. But the combination of poor finishing-in
particular a staggering miss from Olic- and some last-ditch defending from Turkey
stopped Croatia from taking the lead. By the break Turkey had played their way
back into the game and was beginning to edge Croatia.
The Croatian back four was
lying deeper and the knock on effect was Olic as the lone striker was becoming increasingly
isolated in attack. Croatia was also
allowing Turkey more space in front of the defense and although Turkey’s
chances were restricted to some long-range shots there was a hint that it was
only a matter of time before some chances inside the penalty box would come
their way.
In the second half Croatia
mixed their game up and tried to pick Olic out with some direct play. But it
was clear that the game had settled into a defensive battle with both teams
struggling to get behind the other’s defense.
And so Croatia is left to regret
the loss of a fantastic opportunity for a rematch with Germany while an even
more depleted Turkish side will line up in their first ever Euro semifinal next
Wednesday.
Comment of the Day “We have 15 footballers, two goalkeepers and we can make three substitutions. That is what we have.” – Turkey coach Fatih Terim.
Prediction Update No update today as it is a time intensive process. I will post the leader board at the conclusion of the quarter finals. However, I can add that there are a lot of the leaders that are going to be down to only a couple of teams in the semis.
Conventional wisdom would have had an early goal for Croatia offering up the platform for a resounding win. Conversely the Austrians would have been expected to fold given the form guide going into the tournament. As it was the early penalty kick turned into a curse for Croatia and a blessing for Austria.
The early goal (a dead-cert penalty decision) seemed to dull Croatia’s appetite for the game as they failed to string passes together in any meaningful way. Without Ivica Olic the Croatian attack would have been completely anemic with Petric utterly anonymous.
With Croatia showing little ambition to increase their early lead the Austrian’s slowly settled into the game, grew in confidence and from the 30th minute onwards they dominated large chunks of the match.
Croatia allowed Austria far too much space in midfield as time and time again the co-hosts were allowed time to look up and to pick out their targets. Modric and Srna were particularly culpable as Austria regularly found Martin Harnik on the right side with raking crossfield passes.
Substitutions by Croatia’s manager Slaven Bilic failed to turn the ever increasing tide of Austrian attacks while each change rung by opposite number Josef Hickersberger upped the pressure on the Croatian defence.
In the end Croatia played poorly but still took three points; for Austria a glorious loss.
Three games gone and no surprises - so far.
Germany 2-0 Poland
After an early goal in the first game of the day, we could have had two in the first five minutes of this one. The first chance fell to Poland after Lehmann chose to try and gather a cross under pressure rather than punching clear. The fumble dropped awkwardly to Jacek Krzynówek who shot over from just outside of the box.
Only a couple of minutes later Klose caught the Polish back four flat-footed and square and was left with a clear run on goal. Rather than shooting Klose opted to pass to Gomez who in arriving late had to stretch to make contact. It made for a weak connection and the ball rolled agonizingly past the post.
Both incidents were to be harbingers as the first half progressed. Krzynówek was the central focus of most of the Polish attacks, while Klose again beat a stagnant Polish defensive line to find himself one-on-one with Boruc.
Once more Klose opted to pass but this time it was Lukas Podolski who was in support and he potted the chance. By half time it could well have been 3-1 as Germans continued to press with purposeful play and although Poland continued to look shaky under pressure they still carved out a great chance for Zurawski.
Half time substitute Roger Guerreiro helped Poland to their best period of pressure in the first twenty minutes of the second half but after Podolski scored with twenty minutes left a German win was never in doubt.
Podolski produced the best individual performance of the tournament so far and it was not just down to his two goals. Starting on the left side of midfield Podolski worked hard getting up and down the park and was a constant irritant to Poland.
Germany will be happy with the result and satisfied with the performance. Poland can take something away from this game as well. The defence and midfield settled down after a wobbly start but they look to have same problem as a number of other countries at his tournament – no one to finish at the business end.
Comment of the Day
In my Spain preview I included this comment - "Spain’s soft spot might
be in midfield and that in turn may put the centre of defence under stress and
strain. In midfield tidy passing types pervade but they may turn out to be
lightweight over potentially three weeks of competition. Ball possession may
not be a problem but moving the ball quickly to the strikers could be".
Writing in The Times Gabriele Marcotti provided his thoughts on the Spanish dilemma and in the process he included some memorable alliteration.
"Cesc Fabregas may be the best
foreign midfielder not named Michael in the Premier League, but it holds little
stock with Luis Aragones, the Spain manager. His place with Spain is in serious
jeopardy which, frankly, seems extraordinary until you look at the midfielders
at Aragones' disposal. For whatever reason, Spain excels at producing
pint-sized pass-happy pixies: Xavi, David Silva and Andres Iniesta are all in
the same mould, creative little fellas who can pass the ball to death. The
problem is, you can only fit so many of them in your team.
Already Aragones is having to deploy
Iniesta and Silva wide, despite the fact that both are probably more suited to
a central role. And while deploying Xavi and Cesc together in the middle is a
sexy idea, Spain need at least one holding midfielder, otherwise they'll be
steamrollered. And that spot goes to Marcos Senna. Which means that Aragones
has two options: he can either go with a 4-5-1 formation (but that would mean
leaving out the in-form David Villa) or he can make a difficult choice between
Xavi and Cesc. And, in that case, Xavi would be favored by a mile. It's
debatable that he's a better player, less debatable is that he's more
experienced and plays his football in Spain which means that, if things go
horribly wrong, Xavi's exclusion is likely to haunt Aragones for far longer."
Austria Austria has never played in the Euro Championships Finals.
How they qualified It was an epic struggle that was played out in the soccer boardrooms, conference centres and bars of Europe. Along the way Russia, Hungary, four Nordic countries, Croatia and Bosnia, Greece and Turkey, Scotland and Ireland were all outmanouvered and eventually beaten by a unprecedented and overpowering display of power point presentations, computer animations, and scenic views of very large snow capped mountains.
The Coach Josef Hickersberger is in charge of the national team for a second time having helped Austria to Italia ’90. However, a shock 1-0 loss to the Faroe Islands in Euro ’92 qualifying brought his first spell to an abrupt end. This was the Faroe Islands first win in a competitive competition and the two countries have been drawn together in World Cup 2010 World Cup qualifying.
Key Players Former Sunderland and Chelsea goalkeeper Jurgen Macho looks set to start for Austria. Macho moved to Rapid Vienna for a short spell after leaving Stamford Bridge and then switched to Kaiserlautern in Germany before settling at AEK Athens last summer. Captain Andreas Ivanschitz is another Greek based player and is on a two year loan with Panathinaikos and generally plays in an attacking midfield role.
Great Euro Memory The announcement on December 12, 2002 by then UEFA President Lennart Johannsen that Austria and Switzerland would stage the tournament.
Synopsis Austria’s performances on the international stage have been so bad that at one point some fans raised a petition calling for the team to default and allow another country to take their place.
(Remenbering their success in 1992 after entering through the backdoor the Danes were excited at that prospect but nothing came of it.)
Unusually for a host nation expectations are at rock bottom. It is certainly a long way from the iconic Austrian side of the early 30s or even the team of Hans Krankl that went to the 78 and 82 World Cups. One win would be better than expected for this Austrian side.
Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying In Group 7 together with France, Romania, Serbia, Lithuania and Faroe Islands.
Croatia Croatia previously qualified for the 1996 and 2004 finals and made it to the quarter finals in 1996 before losing 2-1 to the eventual tournament winners Germany.
How they qualified As every English supporter can tell you Croatia won Group E with a game to spare and five points better than runners-up Russia. Eduardo da Silva was the man that led the scoring for Croatia with ten goals – only three behind David Healy of Northern Ireland who led all scorers with thirteen. Mladen Petric was next with seven goals.
The Coach Charismatic coach Slaven Bilic was in charge of the Under-21 side before stepping up to the senior team two summers ago. Bilic was member of the 1996 Euro side and also played two years later in the team that finished third at the World Cup in France.
As a player he plied his trade in Germany and in England with West Ham and Everton. A successful Euro 08 will only fuel the speculation that a managerial move to a Premiership team will come sooner rather than later.
Key Players The team is extremely well balanced although playmaker Luka Modric has received most of the attention to date. Modric has already signed for Tottenham Hotspur a next season he will play in the Premiership.
Croatia must get over the loss of top striker Eduardo da Silva who had his leg horrifically broken earlier this year while playing for Arsenal in the Premiership. Borussia Dortmund striker Mladen Pertric might pick up the slack.
Ivica Olic is more than capable of scoring goals as is Parma striker Igor Budan who enjoyed a good run of form towards the end of the Serie A season. The midfield is another area of strength with Niko Kranjcar a recognizable name to followers of the Premiership. The Kovac brothers Niko and Robert provide years of top class experience to the team both in defence and midfield.
Great Euro Memory After beating Turkey 1-0 in their very first finals game in 1996, Croatia followed the result up with an emphatic 3-0 shellacking of reigning champions Denmark. All three goals came in the second half with a double from Davor #### and he also set up the other for Zvonimir Boban.
Synopsis Croatia is considered to be a dark horse and one of the leading second tier contenders after the likes of France, Italy, and Germany. If there is a weakness in the side it may be in goal with Spartak Moscow keeper Stipe Pletikosa.
Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying Will meet England once again as well as Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Andorra in Group 6.
Although much of the attention will be on friendly internationals this Wednesday there are CONCACAF World Cup qualifiers. However, do not expect Anguilla to move on at the expense of El Salvador…..given the first leg score.
After the weekend’s play and as an update to the British bookies odds posted on Friday here is how they now stand.
To win the Premiership – Manchester United 2/7, Chelsea 7/2, Arsenal 9/1, Liverpool 500/1.
The Swamp World Cup is being played in Scotland. With a bit of forward planning the old Baseball Ground in Derby could have been a permanent venue.
David Bond on the death - or is it just stunned - of the 39th game.
Slaven Bilic comments on the Taylor/Eduardo clash.
The Fink Tank says that the stats show that Liverpool areclosing the gap at the top.
With eleven games to go it is worth looking at the points totals that have taken the Premiership title and secured the fourth Champions League spot over the last number of seasons.
Currently Arsenal have sixty-four points and are in track for a 90 point season. Such a total would match their unbeaten season of 2004 but fall below what Chelsea bagged in both 2005 (95) and 2006 (91). Manchester United book-ends the five year spell with 89 points last season and 83 points in 2003.
It use to be pretty much accepted that a Championship winning team could afford to lose six games and still take the title. That theory was blown apart in 04 and 05 when Arsenal went unbeaten and Chelsea only lost once. Otherwise the other three seasons from 2003 to 2007 saw the Premiership winners each lose five games.
However, something did happen in terms of games lost last season that had never happened in a 38-game Premiership. It was the first time that the winners had not finished with the fewest losses.
Chelsea only lost three times but finished in second place to Manchester United who lost five games. Some might point to the fact that United won the league with games in hand but that is hardly unique in itself. So far Arsenal has one loss, second place United four while Chelsea and Liverpool have only tasted the bitter pill three times.
However, any interest Liverpool may have had in the title has largely evaporated on account of eleven draws from 26 matches. It’s even possible for Liverpool to finish out of the top four but finish the season with fewer losses than the eventual Champion.
Looking at the valuable fourth spot it seems that a points total of around seventy is going to be needed this season – it may even need more than the 71 points Newcastle finished with in 2002.
The lowest total for a fourth place team in a 38-team Premiership came in 2004 when Liverpool finished with sixty points and Gerard Houllier was sacked. The average over twelve seasons has been 66 points but with the present incumbents Everton sitting on 50 points with eleven games to play it is difficult to see how the average would be enough this season.
So it only seems right to focus some attention on Sunday’s game at Goodison between Everton and another side that has sights set on a top four finish Portsmouth. Even though both these sides have struck for seven in a game this season this one is all likelihood will be a tight hard fought give-no-quarter tussle.
One player who may prove pivotal is former Portsmouth striker Yakubu Aiyegbeni. Yakubu has hit double figures in scoring each of his five seasons in the Premiership with 16 in his first season followed by 12, 13, 12 and 10 already this campaign.
Based on goals for and against Everton enjoys a slight edge in both categories with four more goals scored and three less conceded this season. However, Portsmouth’s goals tend to arrive in bunches with twenty goals coming in five games while the other twenty-matches have generated only seventeen goals.
Everton are six points ahead and should the gap become nine with ten games to go it would be extremely difficult for Portsmouth to bounce back.
A draw however might be a good result given that their schedule down the straight idoes not look that difficult.
How important is the first goal in this game? Everton have only gained two points from a losing position this season – draws with Chelsea and Blackburn. Portsmouth have only lost two points from winning positions – the first game of the season against Derby County.
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites.
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