Note: This article has also appeared on FoxSoccer.com but without the statistics on home advantage.


With a comfortable preliminary round win against St. Vincent and the Grenadines out of the way Canada gets down to the serious business of World Cup qualifying on Wednesday when they play Jamaica in Toronto.

Mexico and Honduras are the other two countries in Group B. Two countries will qualify for a final group of six. From the final group, the top three countries will qualify to play in South Africa in 2010 while the fourth-place team will have to play-off against the country finishing fifth in South American qualifying.

Last week Canadian coach Dale Mitchell stressed the importance of winning at home and trying to pick up a point or two on the road. “The last couple of times, the home teams have let us down a little bit,” he said.

One look at the history book will tell you that it wasn’t just the last couple of times and it wasn’t just by a little bit. Canada’s home form in World Cup qualifying since their one and only appearance in 1986 in Mexico has cost them any chance they might have have had of returning to the world stage.

Too many times Canada has been unable to turn home advantage into three points and without rock-solid home performances it is almost impossible to qualify from CONCACAF.

Canada has even found that winning at home sometimes hasn’t been enough. Back in the late 80s Canada beat Guatemala 3-2 in a preliminary round game but lost on the away goals rule. Four years later they beat Australia 2-1 in Edmonton in a playoff game but lost by a single goal in Sydney and then lost on penalty kicks.

All told Canada has won only twelve of the twenty-four home games they’ve played in World Cup qualifying since 1986. They’ve drawn another six, and lost six. In fact, it is over a decade since Canada won a make-or-break game on home soil. The last crucial win came in 1997 against Costa Rica when a goal from Eddy Berdusco gave Canada the win and what turned out to be a temporary lifeline. It was Canada’s only win in the final round and they finished bottom of the group.

A comparison to the home records of CONCACAF countries (see Home Advantage below?) who have qualified directly since 1990 makes it stunningly obvious how important it is to win at home. In the ninety-three games played by countries that have gone on to qualify for the World Cup Finals there have been only four losses against seventy-five wins.

Canada’s Gold Cup win in 2000 encouraged the notion that a trip to Japan and South Korea in 2002 was possible but they failed to even qualify from the preliminary group stage. A similar fate was in store four years later.

Will this time be different? Despite inflated and sometimes unrealistic expectations of previous squads there are a number of genuine reasons why this time it might be different. While many Canadian teams of the past have been able to defend, creating and taking chances has rarely been a strong point.

This team is different. For example in striker Rob Friend Canada has a player with size and strength who can play with his back to the goal, link the attack and score goals. Followers of MLS need no introduction to the talents of Dwayne De Rosario and Mitchell has shown a greater willingness to play Rosario in a more central role than others before him. Deportivo La Coruna’s Julian de Guzman and FC Copenhagen’s Atiba Hutchison are both top class midfielders who are comfortable at either end of the field.

With their first two games at home (Honduras September 6 in Montreal) Canada has a chance to get off to a roaring start and to show the rest on CONCACAF that this time it will be different. But anything less than six points and Canadian fans will be thinking that they have seen this picture too many times before.

Home Advantage?

1986
Preliminary Rounds - Home Record
Canada 2-0 Haiti
Canada 2-1 Guatemala

Final Round - Home Record
Canada 1-1 Costa Rica
Canada 2-1 Honduras

1990
Preliminary Rounds - Home Record
Canada 3-2 Guatemala (lost on away goals)

Final Round
Did not qualify

Qualified Countries - Home Records
Costa Rica 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses.
USA 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses.

1994
Preliminary Rounds - Home Record
Canada 1-0 Jamaica
Canada 2-3 El Salvador
Canada 4-2 Bermuda

Final Round - Home Record
Canada 2-0 El Salvador
Canada 3-1 Honduras
Canada 1-2 Mexico

Play Off - Home Record
Canada 2-1 Australia (eventually lost on penalty kicks)

Qualified Countries - Home Records
Mexico 6 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses.


1998
Preliminary Rounds - Home Record
Canada 3-1 Panama
Canada 2-0 Cuba
Canada 1-0 El Salvador

Final Round - Home Record
Canada 0-0 El Salvador
Canada 0-0 Jamaica
Canada 1-0 Costa Rica
Canada 2-2 Mexico
Canada 0-3 USA

Qualified Countries - Home Records
Mexico 6 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses.
USA 6 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses.
Jamaica 8 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses.


2002
Preliminary Rounds - Home Record
Canada 0-0 Cuba
Canada 0-2 Trinidad and Tobago
Canada 1-0 Panama (fate already sealed)
Canada 0-0 Mexico

Final Round
Did not qualify

Qualified Countries - Home Records
Costa Rica 6 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses.
Mexico 7 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss.
USA 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.


2006
Preliminary Rounds - Home Record
Canada 4-0 Belize
Canada 0-2 Guatemala
Canada 1-1 Honduras
Canada 1-3 Costa Rica

Final Round
Did not qualify

Qualified Countries - Home Records
USA 8 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses.
Mexico 9 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses.
Costa Rica 6 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses.

Summary
CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying - Home records 1990-2006
Canada P 24, W 12, D 6, L 6.
Qualifying Countries P 93, W 75, D 14, L 4.
USA P 30, W 23, D 6, L 1.

As the Canada – Haiti match coincided with part of the FSR last night I didn’t get a chance to see the full game until today.

An improved performance by Canada – they played at a higher pace and kept Haiti under pressure when they had the ball. Toronto’s Chris Pozniak came into the side to play as the defensive midfield player, while Atiba Hutchinson dropped a bit deeper to play alongside Julian De Guzman in the centre of midfield. Over the ninety minutes the two moves gave Canada a more solid look in the engine room although the price paid was a lack of support to Rob Friend who played as the lone striker. 

Dwayne De Rosario’s two goals inside five minutes just after the half hour mark of the first half put Canada in the driver’s seat. The first came after a Stalteri cross that bypassed striker Rob Friend but dropped to De Rosario. The Haiti keeper got caught out badly at his near post. The second was from the penalty spot when the lively Issey Nakajima-Farran was fouled after nipping around a defender. The power in De Rosario’s spot kick compensated for a placement that was a bit to close to goalkeeper Gabart Fenelon for comfort.

Either side of half time Haiti enjoyed their best spell and that lasted for around twenty minutes. During that time Canada lost their way defensively and needed keeper Pat Onstad to come to the rescue on at least three occasions. In one case Onstad took a sickening shot to the head as he dove at an on-rushing Haitian forward. After a delay of over five minutes Onstad continued on.

Going into the last eight of the Gold Cup (opponents still not known) the centre of the Canadian defense is probably the biggest concern. Under any sort of pressure Hastings and Hainault look very uncomfortable. Despite De Rosario’s two goals against Haiti there were long stretches of the game when he was not involved in the game as he was left marooned out on the left wing. To be consistently successful Canada has to find a way to bring De Rosario into the game for longer stretches.

Ian Hume was left on the Canadian bench again – something that I think surprises many people while Rob Friend could have benefited with more support up front. He was left to plough a lone furrow with minimal support from midfield.

A post-script to how Guadeloupe stacks up against other teams in the region. In the Shell Caribbean Cup of 2007 – the qualifying competition for this Gold Cup – Guadeloupe played eleven games, winning seven and losing four. They beat French Saint-Martin, Dominica, Martinique, Dominican Republic, Antigua & Barbuda, Cuba and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. They lost to Guyana twice, Haiti and Cuba. In total they scored 22 goals and conceded 14.