Here is the original synopsis and predictions for 2007/08 revisited with the addition of the final finishes, the highs and the lows and a couple of semi interesting statistics. So here is an opportunity to share my gaffs and a couple of thoughts that were reasonably close. And before some of you laugh too hard I will be linking back to the original comments and predictions that were posted back in August 2007 once the Whoops signal stops appearing.
Arsenal
Synopsis – If Arsenal is going to better last season’s record then there are two areas ripe for improvement. The first is their record against lower half opposition – last season Arsenal only won half of these games. The other is to get their noses in front. Last season Arsenal gave up the first goal in twenty Premiership games and although they collected 22 points in these matches (more than any other club) a repeat performance would nix any chance they might have of pushing the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United.
Arsenal needs to improve defensively – particularly on cross balls – and the wide midfield players (Rosicky, Hleb and possibly Eboue) need to chip in with goals. Gunner fans will be looking for Robin Van Persie to establish himself as a top rate striker while new arrival Eduardo Da Silva (work permit granted) needs to show that he can replicate his Dynamo Zagreb form at a higher level.
The departure of Thierry Henry has set off a wave of “Arsenal-in-decline” stories – don’t be surprised if his departure has the reverse effect.
Season’s narrative – Can Arsenal prosper without Thierry Henry?
Prediction–3rd. Actual–3rd. High – 1st Low – 7th
Stat Facts – An improvement of 15 points from last season (5 at home, 10 away) and the highest ever total points recorded by a team finishing 3rd in the Premiership.
Bolton
Synopsis – Although Sam Allardyce resigned before the end of last season this really is the start of the post big-Sam era. His replacement Sammy Lee has to prove that he can successfully move from his coaching position to the number one job – something that others have failed to accomplish at other clubs.
At first blush Lee appears to be mimicking the eclectic mix that was so successful under Allardyce. Arrivals from Europe (Cid, Dzemalli and Harsanyi), a veteran English midfielder written off by others (McCann), an underachieving defender (Samuel) and a bustling hard-working striker who to date has failed to make his mark in the Premiership (Helguson). Toss in a loan deal for Christian Wilhelmsson and you have very much the same recipe albeit with a different cook.
Bolton never dropped lower than 8th all last season in the Premiership - a repeat would be a remarkable achievement.
Season’s narrative – Can Little Sam make Bolton fans forget Big Sam?
Prediction – 15th Actual – 16th High – 13th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Bolton experienced the largest loss in points season over season – 20 fewer than in 2006/07. An unbeaten run of five matches at season’s end that earned Bolton eleven points brought salvation. To generate the points Bolton scored only six goals but conceded only two – just like old times at the Reebok.
Middlesbrough
Synopsis – In the last five seasons Boro has been as high as 7th and as low as 14th. Based on this summer’s moves the team is more likely to finish closer to 14th than 7th.
For all the abuse that is heaped on him Mark Viduka has been a remarkably consistent scorer since he arrived in English football from Celtic in 2000. He has average better than two goals every five game while with Leeds and Boro and that sort of rate is not going to be easy to replace.
Based on past performances Jeremie Aliadiere doesn’t look like an adequate replacement – even though Gareth Southgate has apparently been impressed by the Frenchman’s hunger. Tuncay Sanli is an interesting addition but he would not be the first striker to find the non-stop pace of the Premiership difficult to adapt to.
The scoring load will probably fall on the shoulders of the often transfer-rumored Yakubu Ayegbeni. So far Boro has denied that they are willing to allow him to leave should another club come in with a bid. Boro supporters should hope that the Nigerian striker stays put because without him Middlesbrough might be fighting relegation. With Yakubu a reasonably comfortable lower mid-table position is probably in the cards.
Season’s narrative – Can Boro breakout of mid-table mediocrity?
Prediction – 13th Actual – 13th High – 10th Low - 18th
Stat Facts – Not a head for heights? Boro spent one week in the top ten and only four weeks the season before. Middlesbrough finished the season with two consecutive wins – something they only accomplished one other time during the season – in December they beat Arsenal and Derby County.
Fulham
Synopsis – Lawrie Sanchez has spent a good part of the summer spending money. However, Sanchez may have added to the squad depth but he may not have significantly improved the starting eleven.
Fulham start their season at the Emirates Stadium against Arsenal and a win will equal their away record over the last two seasons. Not hard when the last two seasons have only brought about a win in each. On the road last season Fulham conceded more away goals (42) than any other Premiership club and finished the 2007 season with the longest current run of matches without scoring more than a single goal in a Premiership game – 12.
They also own the current longest sequence since winning by more than a single goal. Fifty Premiership games have come and gone since a 6-1 win over West Brom in February 2006.
Season’s narrative – Will the money spent turnout to be well spent?
Prediction – 18th Actual – 17th High – 9th Low – 19th
Stat Facts – Fulham threw away 27 points from winning positions this season. However, they did finish the season with four wins in their last five matches. The four wins accounted for half of the three-pointers they collected all season. They also finished with three consecutive away wins. Prior to that they had no away wins in 16 games and had only won twice away from home in the last two seasons.
Birmingham
Synopsis – There are very few holdovers from the side that was relegated at the end of the 2006 season. Lat summer Steve Bruce cleaned house and it led to promotion. Twelve months on and has been busy once more. In midfield Fabrice Muamba is now a permanent fixture after spending last season at St. Andrews on loan from Arsenal. He’s joined in midfield by French international Olivier Kapo (5th team since 2004). Gary McSheffrey proved to be a shrewd acquisition from Coventry City in August 2006 and he could be set to make an impression in the Premiership.
Up front Gary O’Connor will be looked to for goals after signing from Lokomotiv Moscow although Nicolas Bendtner (returned to Arsenal after a loan spell) will be missed. Birmingham conceded the second fewest goals in the Championship last season but Bruce has given himself some new options. Only Bruno N’Gotty has left while Ridgewell, Queudrue, Parnaby and Brazilian Schmitz (presently carrying an injury) have been added. Ghanaian World Cup goalkeeper Richard Kingson has signed although it is not clear whether Steve Bruce sees him as a replacement or back up for Colin Doyle.
Casting a potential shadow over the club is the ownership ambition of Hong Kong businessman Carson Yeung. Yeung has already bought 30% of the club and has plans to acquire the remaining shares. Full control for Yeung combined with a poor start and Birmingham may become the Hearts of the EPL.
Season’s narrative – Has Steve Bruce learned lessons from Birmingham’s relegation in 2006?
Prediction – 17th Actual – 19th High – 11th Low – 19th
Stat Facts – If half time results had held Birmingham would have finished in a comfortable 10th position. Only Derby County finished with fewer away points while the Birmingham defense only kept three clean sheets all season – a record shared with Derby County.
Liverpool
Synopsis – Last season’s challenge for the league was almost over before it began as Liverpool faltered out of the gate. That, combined with poor away form that brought only six wins away from Anfield negated an excellent home record. If Liverpool is to challenge for the league title then a strong start is mandatory.
Based on the moves that Rafa Benitez has made this summer he must be happy with his defense. Torres, Babel, Benayoun and Voronin have all been brought to Anfield to either score or create goals. Lucas Leiva arrives with a great reputation although he will have a difficult time breaking into the Liverpool midfield.
With Fernando Torres carrying the mantle of the Premiership’s most expensive summer signing most of the spotlight will be on the Spaniard. Views on the striker are polarized – the naysayers point to his average of around two goals every five games for Atletico Madrid. His supporters are quick to indicate that he is only 23-years-old and his Atletico strike rate is impressive given the club’s overall goal tally.
Liverpool finished 21 points behind the champions Manchester United last season and it will need a Herculean effort to close that gap.
Season’s narrative – Can Fernando Torres deliver the goals that Liverpool need?
Prediction – 4th Actual – 4th High – 1st Low – 9th
Stat Facts – Liverpool tied with Blackburn Rovers and Tottenham Hotspur for the most draws – 13. Only Manchester United scored more home goals than Liverpool (47 to 43). Ironically Liverpool gained four fewer points at home this season compared with last campaign although away points went from 22 to 34.
Fernando Torres became the first Liverpool player to score 20 Premiership goals since Robbie Fowler over a decade ago. What’s more of his 24 markers only one came from a set-piece. No other player scored more Premiership goals this season from open play.
Reading
Synopsis – Last summer critics were aghast when manager Steve Coppell decided to keep faith with the players that had secured promotion for Reading. When the Premiership kicked off last season not one Reading player had top flight experience in England.
However, Coppell’s gut instinct was spot on and Reading cruised through their first ever season in the Premiership. Once again, manager Steve Coppell appears to be largely content with his Reading squad.
Full back Emerse Fae was signed late last week from relegated side Nantes for a record club fee and joins another French defender Kalifa Cisse signed from Portuguese club Boavista. Leaving the Madjeski Stadium are little used full back Greg Halford (only signed from Colchester in January but sold on to Sunderland at a $2M+ profit) and influential midfielder Steve Sidwell (Chelsea on a Bosman transfer). The question of how and who will replace Sidwell (former Arsenal player) is still to be answered.
Last season Kevin Doyle carried much of scoring load with 13 league goals and although no other Reading player hit double figures 13 other players did chip in with goals through the Premiership season. Leroy Lita enjoyed a good run of scoring with six of his seven goals coming during and just after the Xmas period. Fellow striker Dave Kitson only managed two goals although he missed almost six months of the season after being injured on the opening day of last season.
Season’s narrative – Can Reading avoid the second-season jinx?
Prediction – 11th Actual – 18th High – 7th Low – 18th
Stat Facts – Reading only picked two points after being in a losing position – tied with Everton. The bottom fell out of Reading’s season both home and away. Compared to last season they collected 9 fewer points at home and 10 fewer away from home. The swing in goal difference – from +5 a year ago to -25 this May.
Blackburn
Synopsis – If Blackburn can hold on to the likes of Benni McCarthy and Morten Gant Pederson by the time the transfer closes then the pre-season can be regarded as a success. The form of McCarthy and Pederson last season was key contributors to a midway league finish and an FA Cup run that finished with an extra time semi final loss to Chelsea. Given the injuries to a number of key players last season it was a remarkable achievement by Mark Hughes’ side.
The arrival of goalkeeper Gunnar Nielsen may be more about Blackburn planning for a time when Brad Friedel will no longer be patrolling the penalty area while Maceo Rigters joins the club on the back of a series of great performances at this summers UEFA under-21 Championship.
Roque Santa Cruz arrives at Ewood Park with a great reputation but one that is not supported by the stats. A goal every five games for Bayern Munich is a disappointing return for a player who appears to have all the right tools. A resurrection at Ewood Park or a stop on the way to lower level obscurity?
Doubtless Blackburn will be as feisty as last season although a reduction in the number of penalties conceded (11) and red cards received (5) might help them.
Season’s narrative – Can Benni McCarthy maintain his spectacular form of last season?
Prediction – 9th
Actual – 7th High – 3rd Low – 10th
Stat Facts – Blackburn fought back from losing positions to pick up an additional 20 points – only Arsenal with 21 points was better. Blackburn only dropped six points (3 draws) at home to bottom half of the table teams.
West Ham United
Synopsis – A good number of players have come and gone since last season’s great escape but most of the attention this summer has been on Carlos Tevez. Now that Tevez has finally left West Ham fans can now focus their attention on the new season.
Manager Alan Curbishley has opted to strengthen the midfield and attack while keeping largely keeping faith with the defenders. Scott Parker will be reunited with his old Charlton boss and Freddie Ljunberg can still contribute goals if he can stay fit. However, French midfielder Julien Faubert will have to wait another six months at least before seeing Premiership action after rupturing an Achilles tendon in a warm up match.
The loss of striker Dean Ashton for almost all of last season to injury was a devastating blow to West Ham and hopes are high that Ashton’s injury woes are a thing of the past. He scored against his former club Norwich in a friendly match last week. A partnership with the fleet-footed Craig Bellamy might be a source of much needed goals for the Hammers.
Season’s narrative – Can West Ham bounce back from a traumatic 2006/07 season?
Prediction – 14th
Actual – 10th High – 5th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – In total West Ham spent 24 weeks and 18 out of the last 19 weeks in 10th spot. West Ham only won two consecutive games once this season – in September 3-0 wins over Reading and Middlesbrough.
Sunderland
Synopsis – Roy Keane was the story of last season’s Coca cola Championship and is likely to be one of the stories of this season’s Premiership. When he arrived a drop into League One looked to be a more realistic prospect than promotion back to the Premiership. But Keane set about the task of reinvigorating one of the great teams of years past.
Over twenty players were signed or moved on as Sunderland moved from 23rd spot to league champions. Keane has also endeavored to change the club culture as he insisted on pictures and mementos of past triumphs be displaced around the stadium and kyboshed the idea of the club publicly “celebrating” the promotion.
With only two players shipping out so far it looks as if Keane is intent on improving the depth of his player pool while focusing on younger players who should, in theory, still have room to improve.
Kieron Richardson should get a chance to nail down a consistent starting position after only spot duty with Manchester United. Michael Chopra returns to the North-East only twelve months after leaving Newcastle for Cardiff City. Chopra had been unable to break into the Newcastle starting line-up but 22 goals for Cardiff in the Championship last season had many questioning Newcastle’s decision to give up on the 23-year-old.
Centre half Russell Anderson is an intriguing buy for only $2M from Aberdeen. The 28-year-old has up to now played his entire career with Aberdeen and developed into one most consistent players in Scotland. Many believe that if Anderson had opted to move to a bigger club earlier in his career his he would have been capped more than nine times for his country.
Season’s narrative – Shaped by Brian Clough and Sir Alex Ferguson is Roy Keane the next great Premiership manager?
Prediction – 16th Actual – 15th High – 4th Low – 19th
Stat Facts –Sunderland may have been one of six teams that failed to collect 40 points but they still gained more points this season than in their two previous Premiership incarnations combined. Sunderland did however have the longest losing sequence of any Premiership team away from home with 10.
Manchester United
Synopsis – Sir Alex Ferguson has made a career out of proving his critics wrong so it would foolhardy to predict that United will not retain the title won last season. However, the planets really did align for United in 2006/07. Vidic established himself as the type of physical centre back United had been missing since the long ago departure of Jaap Stam; Paul Scholes orchestrated from the midfield rolling back the years as he gathered, prompted and dissected; Ryan Giggs was another who enjoyed an Indian Summer; Cristiano Ronaldo became the best player in the Barclay’s Premiership.
Can it happen again? Owen Hargreaves has been brought in to provide a more solid defensive shield in midfield while Nani and Anderson look to be the heirs to Scholes and Giggs. The “loan” of Carlos Tevez has now been settled and he will add some extra fire power up front - an extremely exciting addition to the Old Trafford staff. On paper United have strengthened the midfield and attack. However, should Gabriel Heinze be granted his wish to move then United’s back four might be a bit more susceptible to an injuries and/or suspensions.
Season’s narrative – How will Sir Alex Ferguson integrate all his attacking options while ensuring that the backdoor remains bolted?
Prediction – 2nd Actual – 1st High – 1st Low – 16th
Stat Facts – United spent 17 weeks in top spot and maintained that position from round 29 onwards. They claimed 52 of a possible 57 points at home dropping to Reading in the first game of the season and losing to Manchester City. United only conceded three goals in the last ten minutes of Premiership games this season – William Gallas (Arsenal 2-2), Matthew Upson (West Ham 2-1 loss) and a penalty from Michael Ballack (Chelsea 2-1) loss.
Everton
Synopsis – One look at the last five seasons should have Everton fans cringing as new season approaches. Each good season has been followed by disappointment and after last season’s sixth place finish a drop is in the cards.
However, if the Toffees can match last season’s performance of not losing more than two consecutive games then things may not turn out so bad. Moyes will also be eyeing the 13 games that finished as draws last season as a possible area for improvement.
With James Vaughn out for an extended period Everton may still make a move for a striker should one become available. The arrival of Steven Pienaar on loan should add more depth and a bit of goal scoring (15 goals in little less than 100 games during his time with Ajax) to the midfield. He will join the likes of Manuel Fernandez, Mikel Arteta and Tim Cahill in a midfield that if it is gels could be a stand-out in the league.
David Moyes will probably slot Phil Jagielka (from Sheffield United) into a back four that improved significantly as last season progressed.
Season’s narrative – Will Everton slip again? Prediction – 8th Actual – 5th High – 1st Low – 10th
Stat Facts – Everton only picked up two points over the entire season after being in a losing position but finished their highest ever Premiership points total. In the last four season’s Everton has finished 4th, 11th, 6th and 5th.
Aston Villa
Synopsis – Last season Villa may have finished 11th in the Premiership but they needed a nine-game unbeaten run at the end of the season to avoid a relegation dogfight. Martin O’Neill may achieved his initial objective of making Villa a difficult team to beat (only ten losses in thirty-eight games) but if his side is up the table then a good number of last season’s league high 17 draws need to turn into wins. That means more goals are needed from the strikers and from the midfield. Another ten goals and the defense holding firm could mean a move into the top six.
The jury is still out on John Carew (7 clubs in 9 seasons) but the arrival of Marlon Harewood gives O’Neill another option up front. O’Neill has under whelmed most Villa fans with the signing of Harewood but remember this is the same manager that resurrected the career of Chris Sutton. Gabriel Agbonlahor was a revelation last season but he may find that the second season is harder than the first. Nigel Reo-Coker will replace Gavin McCann and should bring more vigour and pace to the centre of the Villa midfield.
Villa had the sixth best defensive record last season but there is still room for improvement. An injury free season for Martin Laursen (he’s averaged less than 10 games a season since arriving from Milan in the summer of 2004) would certainly help while O’Neill may yet sign another goalkeeper to compete with Thomas Sorenson.
Overall the departures far exceed the arrivals at Villa Park which might lead us to conclude that Martin O’Neill is willing to go with some younger players.
Season’s narrative – With money going unspent will it turn out to be a false economy by Martin O’Neill?
Prediction – 6th Actual – 6th High – 5th Low – 17th
Stat Facts – Villa finished as the Premiership’s third top scorers behind Manchester United and Arsenal with 71 goals scored. Last season they scored 43 times. The extra goals (although they also conceded 10 more) helped them to five more wins than last season although their losses (10) remained the same.
Newcastle
Synopsis – Where do you start when it comes to Newcastle United? An incredibly well-supported club inadequately led over the years by bungling directors and often managers, is as good a place to start as any. But since the end of last season the club has been bought by Mike Ashley (although there is no guarantee that he will be any better than the others who have come before) and Sam Allardyce has taken over the managerial reins. But even then there have been consistent rumours that Allardyce would not have been the new owner’s pick had he been able to start with a clean slate.
As it is Allardyce has indicated that he is still in the market for some experienced players but even without any additional moves the spine of this team looks much stronger. New arrivals Czech defender David Rozehnal and Brazilian Cacapa will probably be the first choice centre back pairing while Joey Barton will become the fulcrum of the midfield. Up front Viduka and Smith (reunited after playing together at Leeds) will provide some added presence to a front line that was on the small side last season. Martins and Owen (depending on the combination) should benefit from the addition of Viduka and Smith.
Increased goal production is a priority for a team that was shut-out 17 times last season, and 16 times the season before.
Season’s narrative – Can Sam Allardyce bring real hope and progress to the long suffering Newcastle faithful?
Prediction – 10th Actual – 12th High – 1st Low – 14th
Stat Facts – In 2006/07 Newcastle enjoyed the 7th best record against teams in the top ten. This season they collected only 10 points from top half teams. But Newcastle still finished with the same number of points as last season (43) and improved their overall standing by one place.
Derby
Synopsis – Wining the Premiership play off is always a cause for great celebration but it soon dissipates as the challenge of staying in the top league sinks in. Manager Billy Davies has some good young players in the squad but overall it looks awfully like a squad built to do well in the Championship rather than the Premiership.
Robert Earnshaw (Derby’s record signing) will have another chance (he was with West Brom from 2004 to 2006) to show that can score goals regularly in the Premiership (to date 12 goals in 43 appearances) as he has done in the Championship (19 last season in an injury affected season). Steve Howard (16 goals) will likely team up with Earnshaw in attack.
Centre back Claude Davis who was relegated with Sheffield United last season is another player to be given a chance to prove his worth in the top flight.
Season’s narrative – How many times will Derby be described as gallant losers?
Prediction – 19th Actual – 20th High – 7th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Derby County now owns almost every Premiership record for futility.
Chelsea
Synopsis – Peace has broken out at Stamford Bridge. The enemy, for the moment at least, is the other nineteen teams of the Barclay’s Premiership and on paper this is the strongest squad that Mourinho has had since his arrival in the summer of 2004.
If Petr Cech can avoid injury it will only add to a defense that led the Premiership with 22 clean sheets. The on-going right back problem may remain although rumours persist that Sevilla’s Daniel Alves is on his way to Stamford Bridge. A work permit has been granted for Alex so the last season’s centre back crisis is less likely to reoccur - Tal Ben Haim as a squad player will also help.
That will allow Michael Essien to play is his more natural position in midfield with all the resulting benefits. The talk is a return to a 4-3-3 formation and if Mourinho decides to go that route then it is difficult to see how Michael Ballack and Andriy Shevchenko will fit in - essentially the same question as last year at this time.
Malouda was France’s player of the year and he carries a scoring threat. His work rate plus an ability to get past players makes him a great addition to the Chelsea squad. Given that Chelsea’s goal production dropped by 10 goals last season, more goals will be one of the critical factors if Chelsea is to make it a third Premiership title in four seasons.
Season’s narrative – Can Chelsea maintain focus and stop the in-fighting and strength sapping controversy?
Prediction - Champions Actual – 2nd High – 1st Low – 7th
Stat Facts – Chelsea only spent one week in first place – that came in round 4. Chelsea remains unbeaten at home for another season and collected exactly the same number of points as in 2006/07 – 43 points. Contrast these totals with the 55 points and 47 points they gained at home when winning the league in 2006 and 2005 and ironically you can see where Chelsea needs to improve. Chelsea’s impressive away form continued this season – 42 points from a possible 57 which is up two from the previous season.
Tottenham Hotspur
Synopsis – Martin Jol has been one of the busier managers this summer with another raft of new signings. Spurs’ start last season was woeful and they must find a way to integrate their new signings quickly if the hope to improve on their 5th place finish of the last two seasons.
When the team began to click last season goals were not a problem. Unfortunately as quick as Spurs could score them they let goals in as well. In all Premiership games involving Spurs produced 111 goals – more than any other Premiership team – but Spurs finished with a goal difference of only +3.
The return of a fully fit Ledley King will help plug the holes at the back and it is doubtful that England keeper Paul Robinson can produce back-to-back mediocre seasons. Younes Kaboul arrives with glowing recommendations. Youngster Gareth Bale (watch out for his free kicks) arrives from Southampton and is expected to solve the ongoing left back problem at White Hart Lane. However, there doesn’t appear to be a ready made solution at hand on the left side of midfield.
With a price tag of $35M the expectations for Darren Bent are justifiably high and many will be watching to see how Jol goes about fitting the former Charlton player into a strike force that already has Berbatov, Robbie Keane and Jermain Defoe pushing for a spot.
Season’s narrative – Can Spurs spending finally deliver some silverware as well as entertainment?
Prediction – 5th Actual – 11th High – 9th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Spurs set a record for points lost from a winning position – 33 over the season. They also gained 14 fewer points than they did twelve months ago and that means they have slipped 19 points from two seasons ago. This season saw Spurs participate in another galaxy of goals – this time their 38 games produced 127 (66-61) goals up from 111 (57-54) the season before.
Portsmouth
Synopsis - Pompey was the moved improved team last season so expectations have grown since the club just avoided relegation at the end of the 2006 season. Portsmouth’s improvement was almost exclusively on account of their form at Fratton Park. Sixteen more points were secured at home last season over the previous season and only the top four lost fewer home matches. Only three teams - Bolton, Charlton and Chelsea – left Fratton Park with full points. Harry Rednapp will focus on significantly improving Pompey’s away form which was poor last season - three wins and only 16 points was a poor return.
Pompey appears to have strengthened throughout their line up. Sylvain Distin is a good addition to the defense – particularly if Sol Campbell should up and leave – while Sulley Muntari and Arnold Mvuemba will join the likes of Gary O’Neil and Matthew Taylor in a workman like but effective midfield.
Although Kanu’s future at Fratton Park is still undecided the arrival of David Nugent and Nigerian John Utaka should add to Pompey’s goal scoring threat. These two could be become very important players at Portsmouth.
However, the signing of Hermann Hreidarsson should be enough to sober up any Pompey fans dreaming of 2008 glory. Since arriving in England in 1997 Hreidarsson has played for Crystal Palace, Brentford, Wimbledon, Ipswich and Charlton. Only Brentford escaped relegation while the Icelandic international was on the books.
Season’s narrative – Can Portsmouth become road warriors?
Prediction – 7th Actual – 8th High – 4th Low – 15th
Stat Facts – Portsmouth had the most consecutive wins away from home this season - 6. When opening the scoring Pompey was the only side with a 100% record 14 out of 14. But they did fail to find the mark 15 times - only Sunderland and Derby were worse. Even so Portsmouth improved on last season’s previous high water mark of a 9th place finish and 54 points with three more points and one place higher.
Manchester City
Synopsis – If City supporters felt as if they spent last season in purgatory, the good news is that miserable situation may get better. The bad news is that it might not get all that much better even though a lot of cash has been splashed this summer.
Sven Goran Eriksson, successful in Sweden, Italy and Portugal, has been throughout his career a counter-attacking coach and so the City Of Manchester Stadium may again be a ground where thrills are administered from a drip. However, given that City only scored ten goals at home all season and set a new top flight record for scoring futility in the process it really can’t get any worse.
Bulgarian Martin Petrov looks to be a good acquisition and Geovanni has been brought in to add some craft in the last third of the field. Since his move to Europe the 27-year-old has done little to fulfill his earlier promise – City might be his last chance. Swiss youngster Gelson Fernandes is another recruit and he will battle for a midfield spot.
Rolando Bianchi was a scoring sensation (18 goals) with Reggina last season but he has little else in his career to substantiate the fee of over $16M that City paid for his services. A few seasons ago when with Lecce Bulgarian Valeri Bozhinov was one of the great young up and coming players. Since then his career has been moving but more sideways than ahead. If the pairing can hit it off then City’s prospects will look a lot rosier. However that is a very big if.
Elano, Javier Garrido and Vedran Corluka were added at one fell swoop last week bringing new signings so far to 8 and not one English player amongst them. With Sylvain Distin off to Portsmouth, Eriksson will likely opt to move Micah Richards to centre back. Eriksson will focus on making his side more difficult to beat but from there on he may run out of ideas – on the field anyway.
Season’s narrative – Is the Manchester City secretarial pool safe?
Prediction – 12th Actual – 9th High – 1st Low – 9th
Stat Facts – Of the top ten teams only Manchester City show up in the bottom half of the “second-half” table. City matched their best ever Premiership placing of ninth and could have improved on that if that had been able to hold on to a modicum of their early season home form. City took a maximum twenty-seven points from their first nine matches at the City of Manchester Stadium but only ten points from their last ten games at home. Even so City finished with a season-to-season improvement of 13 points.
Wigan
Synopsis – Apart from a relegation saving final day of the season win over Sheffield United the latter part of last season is something that Wigan do not want to replicate. Last season Wigan took 18 points from their first 12 games; and 20 points from their other 26 games. They also conceded more goals at home (30) than any other team and suffered more losses at home than any other team in the Premiership – 10. And just for good measure Wigan led the Premiership in the unwanted category of points dropped from winning positions – a massive 26 points.
More than enough for new manager Chris Hutchings to work on you would think. He will be hoping that injury-dogged keeper Chris Kirkland stays. In front of Kirkland the arrival of Titus Bramble and Mario Melchiot is to say the least being met with some raised eyebrows.
Michael Brown brings his unique competitive (I’m being kind) qualities to the JJB along with former WBA midfielder Jason Koumas. Up front Antoine Sibierski is the only addition and it is doubtful that the 33-year-old Frenchman is suddenly going to become a regular goal scorer.
Season’s narrative – Who will replace Chris Hutchings when he is fired in November?
Prediction – 20th Actual – 14th High – 1st Low – 19th
Stat Facts – After spending nine of the first 24 rounds in the relegation zone Wigan “escaped” never to return over the remaining 14 rounds. With Steve Bruce in charge Wigan won eight, lost eight and drew eight.
Actual Prediction Manchester United 1 2 Chelsea 2 1 Arsenal 3 3 Liverpool 4 4 Everton 5 8 Aston Villa 6 6 Blackburn 7 9 Portsmouth 8 7 Manchester City 9 12 West Ham United 10 14 Tottenham Hotspur 11 5 Newcastle 12 10 Middlesbrough 13 13 Wigan 14 20 Sunderland 15 16 Bolton 16 15 Fulham 17 18 Reading 18 11 Birmingham 19 17 Derby 20 19
And finally I took a look back to your comments from August 2007.
From what I can see nobody got the top three correct let alone the top five although there were around ten of you that correctly chose United followed by Chelsea. The relegation predictions came no closer to reality. No one got all three right although there were a solid number of you who targeted Birmingham and Derby County.
For all of you who contributed thank you and a special award to andesras6292 who wrote on August 14, 2007 – “bobby your predictions suck. and anyone who think arsenal is going to finish top 3 are crazy the top 3 are going to be liv'pool chelsea and man utd not arsenal. and liv'pool are going to stink because torres isnt good at all i dont see whjat people see in him he cant even score a one on one. last game he missed world class chances and if he is world class he should have scored he is just a overpaid bad striker and isnt going to be good for liv'pool.”
andesras6292 – where ever you are – congratulations. You my friend, are without a doubt this blog’s version of Derby County 2007/08.
The North American disease strikes again. The hockey play-offs are on and the great North American tradition of rioting when you win gets underway. Surely this must lead to a European ban for all NHL clubs? If you ask me this is why hockey/baseball/basketball/gridiron football will never catch on in the rest of the world. If you can’t even get your reason for wanton destruction right, how can you ever expect normal thugs and hooligans to relate?
Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are a smidgen away from securing their respective league titles. Lyon are being made to work a bit harder to win their seventh consecutive French title although with four games to go and a four point lead on Bordeaux harder it might be but it looks like pretty inevitable anyway.
It’s possible for Inter to win another scudetto if they win (home to Cagliari) and Roma shockingly lose at home to struggling Torino. Not probable, and even so I’m sure Inter fans would rather wait until the Milan derby to sow another title up. That opportunity comes next weekend.
Which brings us to the Premiership and a match that will see Manchester win another Premiership title (I know Chelsea would still be able to catch United on goal difference but a goal difference of at least 20 makes the task and impossibility) or make the race interesting for at least one more week.
The fact that both teams hold a slight edge in their respective Champions League semi finals and this could be the first of two meeting over the next few weeks only adds more flavour to the pot.
No matter the outcome of this game Manchester United will finish the season atop of the mini league that also includes Saturday’s opponents, Arsenal and Chelsea. Going into the game United have 13 points, Chelsea 7, Arsenal 6 and Liverpool with four draws and no wins. Chelsea also enjoy a very good record over Manchester United in the Premiership and have taken more points off of them than any other side.
The defensive records of both teams this season have been outstanding (United 19 against and Chelsea 24 against) and when you add in the fact that the goals for either team have not been coming as freely in the last few weeks an avalanche of goals seems unlikely.
The Everton vs. Aston Villa match holds a lot of promise with Villa three points a flagging fifth place Everton. Only Manchester United have scored more goals in the Premiership this season than Villa (who would have picked that?) and they have recovered from a truly terrible march to score 15 goals in the last three matches – albeit against three of the cellar dwellers.
Birmingham were Villa’s victims last Sunday and find themselves in the last relegation spot. Birmingham desperately need at least a point this weekend against Liverpool and hope that Spurs do them a favour against Bolton and Reading come a cropper at Wigan. That would leave the Brummies ahead of the other two on goal difference and a run-in that has them face Fulham and Blackburn Rovers.
As chance would have it Birmingham are a bit of a bogey side for Liverpool with the Reds only winning twice in 9 Premiership games. A few years back a Championship Birmingham took Liverpool to penalty kicks before losing in the Carling Cup Final of 2001.
In Italy Fiorentina needs to see off sixth place Sampdoria to maintain at least a four point gap on fifth place Milan and to essentially kill off any reasonable hope that Samp might have of securing the fourth and final Champions League spot. Fiorentina have won their last six at home are playing a side that has a on the face of it a relatively poor away record this season. However, three of Sampdoria’s away wins have come in their last four games and only a surprising 1-0 loss against Reggina a couple of weeks ago brought a solid run to an end.
If Fiorentina can win this one then they will be very much in the driving seat with their remaining fixtures against Cagliari, Parma and Torino. On the other hand Sampdoria need the win to cut into Fiorentina’s lead but then have games against Roma, Palermo and Juventus in prospect.
Finally MLS has the first Los Angeles derby of the season and who is betting that this one will finish with eleven-a-side?
It will be interesting to see what sort of coverage and viewing figures the FA Cup semi-finals get when they go head-to-head with the Premiership this weekend. Portsmouth and Cardiff start as favourites but that is hardly an enviable position given the number of upsets in this season’s competition.
Portsmouth will probably bide their time looking for West Brom to push forward. Certainly there is no doubt about the Albion’s ability to score in the Championship (78 so far) but their defence does leak with 51 goals against in 40 games.
If you are a Barnsley supporter it must really be a case of nearly the best of times and nearly the worst of times – Barnsley have such a long history they have seen better and also worst. Even so their fantastic Cup wins over Liverpool and Chelsea have not earned them any easy points as they try to avoid the drop to League One.
One win in nine league games means that goal difference is the only thing keeping the Yorkshire team from the relegation zone. Cardiff harbours no such threat from relegation and have been able to maintain some decent league form during their Cup run to the point that they still retain a faint hope of securing a promotion play-off spot.
Prediction – West Brom vs. Cardiff in the Final.
The bookending of the Premiership match between Arsenal and Liverpool by the quarter final of the Champions League takes a bit of the sheen of this weekend’s game. Will the managers choose to rest some players or will it be a case of the same again. Wenger says he has not given up on the title and so if that is true then we should see little change. After creating a five point gap with Everton Liverpool will not want to risk that number shrinking.
With Boro and Manchester City having little to play for – City may look to have an outside chance of a UEFA Cup spot but not based on recent form – Manchester United and Chelsea will be hoping to increase the gap on Arsenal and Liverpool.
At the relegation end of the table Wigan vs. Birmingham, Fulham vs. Sunderland are six pointers while Newcastle (a much happier Newcastle) would like to keep Reading below them and Villa needs to stop a run of three straight losses (and shut outs) against Bolton.
Sevilla versus Villarreal has the makings of a top class game as does Mallorca against Real Madrid. Villarreal are the form team at the moment although there is a train of thought that when Villarreal gets into a position to really challenge for some silverware that is when it starts to go all wobbly for them.
Mallorca have only one loss in their last their last twelve although seven finished as draws. What’s more David Guiza is cracking goals in at the moment for Mallorca and they have been known to give Real Madrid problems – Real came a cropper in the Copa del Rey this season.
The Times feature on Fulham’s away form. St. James’ Park is about the only ground Fulham doesn’t mind traveling to. They have a split record of 2 wins, draws and losses in the Premiership and their two wins and one of the draws have come on their last three visits. Conversely Newcastle’s last win in the Premiership came over three months ago and it needed a late penalty kick to give Newcastle a 1-0 win over who else but Fulham.
Premiership This weekend’s Premiership fixture list has ten matches all of which have the potential to substantially change the race for the title, the scramble for Champions League/UEFA Cup spots, or the battle to avoid the dreaded drop.
There are numerous possibilities and of course one of which is that nothing very much will change. Even so it’s interesting to take a look at the various views of how things will work out with eight rounds of play to go.
The conventional wisdom in the media and on the chatboards seems to be that with a three point lead and a substantially better goal difference the league title is for Manchester United to lose. Arsenal’s four consecutive draws has put a dagger through the heart of their title aspirations while Chelsea could yet to slip in to win the Championship for the third time in four seasons.
Liverpool are the form team (and the team to fear in the Champions League) and will lock up the fourth Champions League spot. That will leave Everton with fifth and what may be the last remaining UEFA Cup place for next season. Aston Villa, Portsmouth (still have a very real interest in the FA Cup), Manchester City and Blackburn will be left on the outside looking in.
BBC pundit Alan Hansen seems to support the conventional view as far as the top four are concerned. Hansen states “if United beat Liverpool and Arsenal lose at Chelsea, Wenger can wave the title bye-bye in my opinion”. Early on in the article he says, “…..while Arsenal go to Stamford Bridge to play a Chelsea side who cannot yet be discounted when it comes to the title.”
When you consider that going into this weekend Arsenal trails United by three points and in turn leads Chelsea by two points then should United and Chelsea win then the gap between first and second will become five points with Arsenal a further point behind. However, that single point would seem to be enough for Hansen to dismiss Arsenal’s chances (whle five points is not too much for Chelsea to make up) even though Manchester United have to still play the Gunners and have to travel to Stamford Bridge.
At the other end of the Premiership Wigan’s current run of form finds them on 31 points along with Boro. Although both teams still fall within the group still under threat of relegation these two teams haven’t featured in too many relegation picks lately. The subject of Newcastle is polarizing with fans and pundits clearly falling quickly into the “stay-up” or “relegated” camps – no indecision on that one.
Depending on how you feel about Newcastle they either join the group of Reading, Birmingham, Sunderland, Bolton and Fulham that are trying to avoid the two other relegations spots or not. Bolton’s chances of safety are often dismissed based on a supposedly tougher schedule while in North America Fulham seem to a lot of peoples pick for a “miracle” run to seventeenth spot or even higher. Perhaps a case of heart dominating the brain.
So if that is a recap of the conventional wisdom what are the UK bookies saying? As bookies odd are set based on money bet it should align closely with punters current opinion. At the wrong end of the league the bookies are no longer taking bets on Derby’s fate while not giving Fulham (2/5) much of a chance of survival and they reckon Bolton (5/6) are going to join them.
If either of these two teams does turn their “fate” around then Sunderland are the next pick to go down (2/1), with Reading and Birmingham (7/2) coming next. Jeremy St. Louis could make some money by choosing Newcastle at 4/1. Wigan (8/1) and Boro at 12/1 are definite outsiders.
At the other end the bookies are saying that the finish will be Manchester United 1/3, Arsenal 4/1, Chelsea 5/1 and Liverpool 120/1 with a United, Arsenal and Chelsea the favoured 1-2-3 finish. Before the midweek draw with Tottenham Chelsea were the bookies favourite to finish as runners-up.
Around Europe There are some great games around the rest of Europe as well. In Italy the two stand out games are Fiorentina vs. Lazio and the derby that isn’t a derby, Inter against Juventus. Spain has Sevilla against Atletico Madrid and if the game is half as interesting as their first match-up this season (a 4-3 win for Atletico) then it should be worth catching.
Meanwhile, Real Madrid probably can’t believe that after dropping nine points in their last five matches that they still lead second place Barcelona by seven points. For all the ups-and-downs we have seen in La Liga this season the fact is that since Real left the Nou Camp with a 1-0 win two days before Christmas the top three teams (Real Madrid, Barcelona and Villarreal) have all collected twenty-one points from a possible thirty-nine. This weekend Valencia provides the opposition for Real and will be buoyed after beating Barcelona in Thursday’s Copa del Rey semi-final.
The Bundesliga has a top versus third match-up with Bayern Munich facing a surging Bayer Leverkusen. Bayern remains unbeaten at home although their points total is reflective of five draws in eleven home games. On the other hand Leverkusen have not won at Bayern in 19 years, and have only won twice in twenty-eight visits.
I will be on World Soccer Daily at around 1:15 p.m. EST tomorrow (Friday).
Redfan2000 -What's your take on the midfield for England? You lauded Jenas in the weekend blog, so how about explaining your thinking regards the competition with, Barry, Gerrard, Lampard, Carrick, Hargreaves et al, all vying for a CM slot? Could Jenas run the right wing??
What do you think of Downing as an attacking winger and his defensive qualities going the other way?
Re the Inter debate, do you think they are truly a great side or just very consistent, unlike those around them and elsewhere? Never mind Rafa's position, do you think Grant will start next season as Manager at Chelsea? Who do you think RA would/could replace him with??
Bobby – I think you can see a significant improvement in Jenas since Ramos took over. He is more composed, chooses his moments to go forward and is much more disciplined. He has a very good turn of pace – something that Ramos likes – and I am betting that Capello does as well.
There is a feeling that Capello will opt for a 4-2-3-1 formation and so in the long run Jenas probably has two bites at the cherry. If he continues to improve under Ramos then Capello may be willing to slot him into one of two defensive midfield positions.
The conventional wisdom has Hargreaves as having a lock on one of the positions but I am not so sure. Hargreaves is an aggressive defender playing in front of the United back four and offers virtually nothing in terms of building an attack or controlling the tempo o####ame.
That is where Barry has a big edge and I think Jenas will eventually be slotted into the second position beside him. In front of them maybe Bentley-Gerrard-Cole. Downing is a natural left footer but overall Joe Cole is a far better player and a better option.
Bentley is a more natural wide player than Jenas and I think Jenas’ more valuable in the middle of the park. For Inter to be regarded as a great side they are going to have to win the Champions League rather than just winning their domestic championship a few times in a row.
Re: Avram Grant, I’m still surprised he was hired to begin with. As for a replacement who knows. It is more a product of who is available at the time rather than who is the best candidate. Naming replacements is a hypothetical exercise means nothing.
CIAO - I'm curious, do you have any comparative data on injury statistics of the leagues (i.e. Serie A, PL, Bundesliga and La Liga). To me, it seems obvious that such career ending injuries seem to occur more in the PL vs. the other top leagues.
Henry14 - What should Eduardo have done yesterday? Should he have not gone for the ball because he thinks (as many others may do) there's a real danger my leg will be broken here. The ridiculous assertion that Eduardo was too fast and therefore that means that’s ok is beyond belief.
To avoid serious injury yesterday someone had to decide differently. Taylor could have decided to not go flying in or Eduardo could have pulled out going for the ball. You have a choice. Which one do you want to influence to make a different decision? For me it is clear. A greater ban in the event of causing a serious injury would make the tackler and the club thinks twice and we would not have had the injury we had.
What’s your take on the way tackling and aggressiveness on less technically play is taken in England?
Gregz - What did U make of the Eduardo injury. (I missed the show).
Bobby – I will try to deal with all the Eduardo/Taylor questions in one response so there may not be a direct match to each specific question. First off on a historical basis the game is far cleaner than it was in the 60s, 70s and early 80s.
That comment is made in the context of all leagues, not just in England. You name me a decent soccer playing nation from that era and I guarantee that we can find thugs from each and every one of them. The same goes for today. Just because one style is more physical than another does not make it more or less illegal.
I would suggest that the real dirty players are the ones that you don’t see rather than the ones you do.
Anyone trying to make this a nationality argument is disingenuous at best.
I am not aware of comparative stats on career ending injuries in the PL vs. Other leagues but I doubt that it would statistically significant if it was. It may seem that way because we hear more about the PL than others.
I don’t have anything to back up this assertion but I would be willing to bet that the vast majority of career ending injuries are not caused by fouls but from normal play and physical contact.
So is someone going to suggest that anyone causing an injury with a fair tackle should be suspended as well – according to some comments that would apparently stop bad injuries.
The most intelligent comments about the incident have come from Eduardo – the victim.
I wonder how many of you saw the incident and immediately thought it was brutal tackle?
Taylor flying into the tackle – pure hyperbole. Taylor was slow, he was late and he caught Eduardo. A fraction of a second either way and Eduardo rolls off the tackle or Taylor brings him down, a free kick is given and Eduardo plays on as players do countless times each game.
With a game played at the pace of the modern game it is impossible not to have some mistimed tackles and unfortunately bad injuries are going to happen now and again. Bad injuries have happened for years and they will happen for years to come and you are not going to find that they are restricted to one league, one nationality or even bad tackles.
As for a player going into a game worrying about a broken leg - he should not playing the game.
Gregz -Do U see Wenger parting ways with Van Persie because of his constant injury problems. What do you make of Carlos Vela? Better as a winger or striker?
Bobby – I guess your definition of constant injury problems are a bit different than mine. He’s been at Arsenal four seasons and the first year he was almost exclusively on the bench.
He injured himself scoring against Manchester United last season and then he’s been injured this season – is that constant?
Maybe someone can explain to me the upside of releasing a player who has yet to hit his prime and has the potential to be one Europe’s best goal scorers? My latest view of Vela was at the Under-20s last summer and he was not very impressive. On last summer’s showing he is nowhere close to being ready to step up.
Frenchking2012 - What do you think of Walcott? Could he do a Ljungberg after Pires (Arsenal best player in the 2001-2002 season) was injured by Dabizas. I remember Freddie scoring 6 or 7 goals in 8 or 9 games and he was the one whose run and later shot gifted Wiltord with an open goal at Old Trafford.
Walcott score 2 great goals Saturday and for once was dribbling rather well. I think he needs to step up because the Bendtner - Ade duo doesn’t work, and we won’t have RVP back for the Milan game (maybe as a late sub if we are down 1-0 in the 75th minute).
Bobby – Not a hope. Ljungberg was an experienced club and international in 2001/02, Walcott is still a young boy. The expectations of how quickly Walcott will mature are way over the top.
Flashman - When it comes to assessing ar5ena1 games, you dig in like you were Cronkite covering a moonshot. Very thorough. So why no coverage of William Gallas snapping a head valve and kicking the advertising boards and stomping off and throwing hisself down at midfield and having a right old sulk? The UK media have ripped him soundly and clamoured for the club to get rid of him. Why no coverage?
That said, you could have drawn attention to Spurs' Pascal Chimbonda chewing up clock time with his selfishly slow walk-off after being subbed at Wembley.
Bobby – If you can persuade our producers to give us a three hour show then I am hopeful that we could fit everything in. As it is I get told to wrap it up when I am going over and so I have to do what I am told. Sometimes bits get in and sometimes they don’t.
As for the media clamouring for Arsenal to get rid of Gallas - clamouring? Really?
Alberta_Man_United_Fan - What is it with the officiating in the Prem lately? Missed offside calls, ref's missing incidents were one player puts his hands on the face of an opponent who responds, only to get turfed?
I am amazed at the appearance of bias from some game officials in the calls that are and are not made! Kicking at a players heal when I played resulted in a card, not a lecture! (Arsenal-ManU).Then this past weekend Man City had a player sent off for doing that same thing.
As a youth coach and official I tell all the kids, if it is in the rule book it will be enforced! The best way to stay out of the book is to play a clean game. Professional referees do none of us minor coaches any favors by selectively enforcing the rule book.
Immediately after the Arsenal-Man United game I witnessed three such kicking incidences in the games that I officiated in. When did the standards drop for officials?
Bobby – I can’t disagree with you on the incidents that you bring up. However, I would not limit the comments to the Premiership.
Zuco2 - What do you think about Reading football club? Last season, they had a perfect year finishing in the top 10 and narrowly missing a UEFA cup spot. This season, they are winless in 11 games. They are in the relegation zone and they have one of the worst goal difference records in the Prem. What is wrong with them??????? Have any idea???
Bobby – At the risk of stating the obvious they can’t score goals and have let in far too many – a recipe for relegation trouble normally. Second seasons in a higher division are traditionally difficult.
It is interesting that last season a number of fans pointed out that Wigan had made too many changes to the team that had done very well during its first season in the Premiership and hence their problems.
Steve Coppell made few changes and that has not worked out either. Lita, Doyle, Long and Kitson have to start scoring goals and scoring early in games as well. The two goals in the last seven games have both been last minute consolation goals and they have yet score a goal in the first fifteen minutes of a Premiership game this season.
On the bright side they do not have a particularly difficult run in over the final eleven matches and frankly if they can’t get enough points from a softish schedule then they deserve to go down.
Paul Doyle on why it would be a folly to believe that Spurs are too good to go down. He includes a mini-table of the teams that currently occupy the lower reaches of the table – something that I was thinking of pulling together but he got there first.
Plans afoot to mark the 50th anniversary of the Munich disaster.
Two weeks ago the Premiership’s bottom three teams ran up against Chelsea (Derby), Arsenal (Wigan) and Manchester United (Bolton). It is a case of more of the same with another weekend dominated by bottom versus top match-ups – or vice-versa.
Arsenal is away to Middlesbrough, struggling Derby is at Old Trafford to play Manchester United, Sunderland is in London to play Chelsea while Reading is home to a rampaging Liverpool side.
Bolton pulled off a massive upset a fortnight ago in beating Manchester United. Can any of these four teams match that performance? If it is to be Boro then they need a seismic improvement in current form.
Arsenal held on at St. James’ Park in midweek for a draw but Boro is without a win in ten Premiership games and have conceded the first goal in twelve of their fifteen league games. It means Boro now occupies a relegation spot for the first time since August 2004.
Very much against the odds Derby has twice won at Old Trafford in the Premiership but another win is as likely as Steve McClaren being told it was all a big mistake and he is still in charge of the England team.
Sunderland pulled off a crucial win against Derby last week courtesy of a last minute goal from Anthony Stokes. Six of Sunderland’s thirteen points have come from goals scored in the 90th minute or later but they face a Chelsea team that has only let in one goal in the last eight league games.
Liverpool is another side that has lowered the shutters over the last few weeks. Nine clean sheets in fourteen games and four consecutive clean sheets since they conceded a late equalizer to Cesc Fabregas at the end of October has helped Liverpool to the best defensive record in the Premiership.
Fernando Torres has scored six of his eleven goals for Liverpool in the Premiership but he has yet to notch a Prem goal away from Anfield.
Reading is eleven points of their pace of last season and a look at the statistics quickly tells you why. A defence that has let in fourteen more goals must take much of the responsibility but an anemic first half attack does not get off scot-free.
The attack has actually one more goal than last season (18 to 17) but only four have come in the first forty five minutes. Last season twelve of their seventeen goals came before the half time cuppa.
Stats corner – Some of the other matches this weekend in the Premiership throw off interesting statistics. Three of the last four league games between Villa and Portsmouth have finished as draws. But Portsmouth has only one Premiership win over Aston Villa, has not won on their last ten visits to Villa Park and their last league win was in the old 2nd Division in 1970.
Tottenham’s woes continued last week as they lost at home to a last minute Birmingham goal. A cure? Well it may come in the form of a visit from Manchester City. In their twenty Premiership games Spurs have taken 45 points from a possible 60 and have only lost twice to City.
However, if you are looking for a team that suffers from travel sickness and in particular a Liverpool version then look no further than Fulham. Fulham has never won a league game at Goodison or Anfield in forty-nine attempts. What is more in thirty-eight league games between Fulham and Everton the away team as only won three – all by Everton. Their last fifteen league matches have all been won by the home side. The game is at Goodison.
In Serie A Inter and Roma now have a bit of padding with a five point gap between second place Roma and third place Juventus. Based on the fixtures this weekend it seems unlikely that Juventus will make up some of that ground.
Inter plays mid-table Torino a team that doubles as the draw specialists. Their last four matches have finished as draws to give a record of nine ties in fourteen games. Torino is winless away from home and faces an Inter team that has been rampant in the first forty five minutes of games this season. Inter has a phenomenal record – they have outscored the opposition 17-2, have led at half time in twelve games and been tied in the other two.
Roma has only one loss (to Inter) so far and is gamely hanging in. They are away to 16th place Livorno, a team that lost seven and drew two of their first nine games. But since then three wins and two draws has given Livorno fans hope. Summer signing Francesco Tavano has been instrumental in the turnaround with five goals in the last six games.
Two seasons ago Tavano scored 19 Serie A goals for Empoli before departing for Valencia. His spell in Spain was unsuccessful and he moved to Roma on loan last January. Two goals in the second half of the season failed to persuade Roma that Tavano should be signed.
Faced with the loss of iconic forward Cristiano Lucarelli to Shakhtar Donetsk Livorno stepped in to secure the striker’s permanent return to Italy.
Third place Juventus is at home to Atalanta currently sixth while Udinese fourth faces an improving Sampdoria side.
A sure sign of how competitive Liga is – the team with the longest winning streak at the moment is Atletico Madrid with…….two straight wins. If it is goals that you are looking for then the Vicente Calderon is where you want to be. In their last four home games in the league Atletico has scored 4, 4, 3, and 4 winning three and losing one.
These four games have produced an incredible 25 goals. This week Getafe provides the opposition and will be looking to continue their improved form. The first seven games this season brought two draws and five losses. However, their last seven have seen five wins a draw and only one loss.
Half way around the world the FIFA Club World Cup will get underway early on Friday morning – on the east coast of North America anyway. Iranian champions Sepahan kicks off the competition against Waitakre United from New Zealand. Sepahan lost to Urawa Red Diamonds in the Asian Champions League but with two host federation spots available both teams qualified.
Concacaf interest centres on Pachuca, a side that has recently gone off the boil. After winning five trophies (including beating Chivas of Guadalajara in the Concacaf Champions League final on penalties) in less than two years the Mexicans are struggling to regain their form.
On Sunday they face African Champions Etoile Sportive du Sahel. We have to wait until midweek for Boca Juniors and Milan’s involvement. Boca and Milan have been kept separate with a final clash the most likely outcome.
This is a tournament that requires an upset if it is to ever capture worldwide attention – something we have yet to see.
It is own up time. Here are the predictions I posted last August along with the remarks made at the time. Also included are the actual 2006/07 Premiership positions.
Prediction Chelsea 1st - too strong. Actual position 2nd.
Prediction Liverpool 2nd - will push Chelsea hard but ultimately they will come up just short. Actual position 3rd
Prediction Manchester United 3rd - in the past those who written-off SAF have had to eat crow, but…… Actual position Champions.
Prediction Arsenal 4th – they will be great to watch again but a legitimate title challenge will have to wait. Actual position 4th.
Prediction Everton 5th – Simple stuff. Johnson + Beattie = more goals. The Toffees move up the Premiership. Actual position 6th
Prediction West Ham 6th – A side that showed last season that it has a great upside. Actual position 15th
Prediction Aston Villa 7th– The O’Neill factor. Actual position 11th
Prediction Tottenham 8th– Will they continue to build on last season’
