As a new Premiership season draws ever closer one of the favourite pastimes of pundits and fans is to opine on who will be the first managerial casualty of the campaign. Alan Curbishley (West Ham), Kevin Keegan (Newcastle), Gary Megson (Bolton), Roy Hodgson (Fulham) and David Moyes (Everton) are all attracting some attention in the "sack race" - or first-out-the door.

Interestingly three of the most touted names (Keegan, Megson and Hodgson) were brought in to takeover after Newcastle, Bolton and Fulham opted to pull the plug on the then incumbents.
We know all three clubs survived so perhaps the end justified the means but do the statistics from last season support the managerial changes that were made?

Along with the three aforementioned managers there were another four managerial changes in the Premiership last season. Juande Ramos replaced Martin Jol at Spurs, Paul Jewell took over after Derby from Billy Davies, Steve Bruce returned to Wigan taking the place of Chris Hutchings and Avram Grant stepped into the special shoes left by Jose Mourinho.

So of the seven managers who made the biggest difference? The points differential can’t be used because all seven arrived at different times so the best comparison is the points per game gained after the change had been made measured against the points per game gained before the new gaffer signed on.

As well as making interesting reading in terms of last season the numbers may also give a hint of things to come in 2008/09.

The most “successful” change was at Wigan. Steve Bruce inherited a side that had averaged 0.57 points per game and he saw it increase by more than double to 1.33 per game. Projected over an entire season the pace under Bruce would have given Wigan a 50 point season – good for a very comfortable mid-table finish.

Next was Bolton’s Gary Megson. Before Megson arrived Bolton was collecting a point every two games. Megson increased that to well over a point per game (1.14) – another increase of over double the prior rate. Projected over a 38 games season Megson’s team would have finished on 43 points.

In third place is the manager who I am guessing most fans would have picked as the one showing the greatest improvement – Juande Ramos at Spurs. Ramos came within a smidgen of doubling Spurs points per game tally (1.39 to 0.70) but was well behind Megson and Bruce in the most improved category.

However, only Chelsea under Avram Grant averaged more points per game (2.31) under a new regime. If Spurs were to maintain the post-Ramos pace in the coming season they would finish with 53 points – not really top four form. There was the Carling Cup win however.

Finishing out of the medals was Roy Hodgson at Fulham. A little over a 50% improvement and it was all down to Fulham’s storming finish in the final three games. The nine points from three games made the difference between a 50% improvement and a record that would have worse than the man he replaced.

Projected to the new season Fulham would finish on 44 points – a cautionary note, exclude the final three games and that points total becomes 30 points.

Avram Grant’s Chelsea garnered the highest ratio of points per game but the improvement Mourinho’s performance was a little over 25%. (A caveat when making an assessment on Chelsea’s pre and post performance is that Chelsea fired a manager who was averaging 1.83 points per match. Of the seven sides only Newcastle pre-Keegan at 1.18 points per game exceeded an average of a point a game.)

After that we start moving into points regression. Under Keegan the points per game ratio was 90% of Newcastle’s ratio before he arrived (1.18 before – 1.06 after). Points projection over a full 38 game schedule – 40 points.

Last but not least was Paul Jewell and Derby County. With only six points from the first 14 games under Billy Davies I wonder if any of the Derby top brass suggested that if they parted ways with Davies it certainly could not get any worse. Well – it did. The next 24 games brought only five points and a projected total so low that it will not even be mentioned.

George Weah asks “With Anelka possibly linking up with Diouf at Bolton the Trotters could have the most combustible strike force in the EPL. What are the odds on one of these two being dropped by December?”

 

Bobby – Or how long until Anelka’s first sulk? What a fantastic talent, what a moaner.

Reggae_Boy_23 – What’s your opinion on Jens Lehmann.

Bobby – Up until last season my opinion of Lehmann was not great. However, being dropped for a spell the season before seems to have made a ton of difference. He was fantastic last season and although he did have his little tantrums now and again he really did come into his own.

JohnQuinn – Frank Lampard and deflected goals.

Bobby – I’m not aware of any statistic being kept on deflected goals but it is an interesting point. It seems to me that there are a lot more than there was a decade ago – but there again I don’t have anything to prove that. Maybe it has something to do the ball?

 TheFishingWidow – Sheva and Drogba

Bobby – Shevchenko will bring out the best in Drogba. Not only is he a great striker but he also works hard to create chances for others as well. Sheva will create space for Drogba and if they both stay fit I can see them scoring 40 between them in the Premiership.

 thedream “Why was Pascal Chimbonda not in Wigan's line-up this past weekend?”

Bobby – Because Paul Jewell and Wigan are royally pissed off at him for wanting a transfer. Next he is going to be sent to his room early, without supper, and no internet privileges.

SLRed – Peter Crouch and Dirk Kuyt.

Bobby – What I have seen of Kuyt has not been all that impressive but I don’t think Benitez has bought a dud – although he did sign Crouch. I can see Crouch becoming a role player who is brought off the bench to give the opposition a different look. I just don’t think Crouch is up to what is needed week in and week out.

 

Looneyrooney14 - Does Man U's performance today make you want to edit your prediction? Especially since Liverpool were disappointing on Saturday.+ I am the only Tottenham fan in my family, everyone else is a Man U fan, so I was teased pretty bad this weekend, do you think my team can turn it around?

Bobby – Not after one game I am not. United were great on Sunday but it is far too early tell. Mind you drawing conclusions after every team has played one game is not as bad as what we saw on Sportsnet in Canada after the Sheffield United and Liverpool game on Saturday. As you all know this game was the first of the season and finished before the others kicked off. Sportsnet put up the league standings with Liverpool and Sheffield United top and all the other 18 teams showing zero records. Talk about pointless!  For a comment on Spurs see below.

milanfan – Lack of action from Milan in the transfer market.

Bobby – I find this surprising as well. Could the rumour of a Ronaldo bid be true?

 djnima – 1. Your prediction for Spurs not challenging for the top four this season surprised me. The front 6 line up for them looks quite dangerous. If Zokora succeeds in the EPL, and I think he will, then Tottenham's midfield and striking options surely look promising. They only seem to lack quality in defense which would seem to be their only weakness. Chimbonda was the answer to some of those questions. Since Tottenham failed to sign him, do you think their lack of spending at the back will lead to their demise?

2. I joined the Fox EPL fantasy so I could see your picks. I can't seem to be able to view your team. How can I do so?

 Bobby – 1. Taken from another blog response to a similar question.  My take is that few teams have been able to produce back to back seasons that have moved them into the top four. Spurs will also have the UEFA Cup and are unlikely to be knocked out at the first attempt in the Carling and FA Cups. Finally (a) Spurs had a fantastic record against teams that finished in the bottom half of the table while (b) they had a poor record against the top four and (c) they had a great home record. I can't see them doing much better against the top four while I don't think that they will be able to replicate the record against poorer sides and it will be difficult to match the home record from last season.

 2. This is my rookie year in the Fantasy League so I will be happy to avoid relegation. I have made some four transfers all ready but this is what I have at the moment under Tayport. Van der Sar; Carr, Ferdinand Rio, Gabbidon, Hunt: Parker, Nolan (captain), Arteta, Benayoun; Johnson Andy, Henry; Sub Solskjaer.


travel_coach -   What can be done about the disparity in cash? I watched Chelski beat my Man. City side handily, despite that Chelski were missing 3 starters. The Prem. really has split into super teams and the rest of the lot. Is that really what we want? EU labour laws to the side for a minute would instituting a "4 non-U.K. player maximum in the Prem. help restore a reasonable level of parity? How about a salary cap like we have in the Fantasy league? Or, given the Sheffield United game, are such efforts really unnecessary?

Bobby – There has always been a disparity of cash, the only difference is that now it is greater than ever and Chelsea has more money than anyone can reasonably dream of. Unfortunately any discussion has to involve European Union Laws. UEFA and FIFA chose to ignore that reality so when the Bosman decision came down they were totally ill-equipped to respond. The fact that UEFA and the European Union cooperated in the report tabled in May was very important and a sign that UEFA now sees the EU has part of a long term solution rather than the problem.

Keane16 - dmanufan07: I believe the addition of Hargreaves would be excellent as it would give an added option in the midfield(if we can get him for 6 to 8 million), but what I would prefer is the addition of more young players who can fill gaps and do a good job there. Such as a younger Quinton Fortune or Phil Neville type player who can be put anywhere on the field and do an above average job and doesn't complain if he doesn’t get to start every week but when called upon puts the shirt on and plays for his place. John O'Shea is an excellent example of this even if you wince every time he needs to control a ball.

Bobby – I can’t believe that United are willing to fork out $30M plus for a player who they could have had on a Bosman pre-contract last season given that his deal was up in June of 2006. Hargreaves is a competent and energetic ball winner and that is all. He is a younger Philip Neville. He plays a couple of good games for England and suddenly Fergie is willing to pay silly money for him.

 henry 14 - bobby l am now getting confused l heard that arsenal bid for Gallas and Chelsea refuse at the same time Mourinho is prepared to trade him with Cole +money, to be honest l feel Chelsea have money to spend and can afford to pay A PLAYER WHILIST IN THE RESERVES which tells me that the coming of cannibal does not affect the Gallas issue, l still feel that they will be no deal, l le boss just said if nothing happens till Friday he closes his door and Cole will stay. At the same time they are rumours that Cole does not want to leave arsenal until December because he wants a 2m pound loyalty bonus so he might be dragging his feet for the deal, he gets me sick. What do you feel about the sudden twist of events?

Bobby – Patrick Barclay in his Jose Mourinho biography put it very well. When a manager or a coach speaks publicly, he his only out to achieve one thing – an advantage. If the truth is also spoken then it is just a fortunate side effect. 

 davard - Actually my real question involves South American futbol. I have enjoyed watching some of the Argentina league on FSC, and I was wondering about the Copa Libertadores. Do the South / Central American clubs view it as the Euro clubs view the Champions League? Is it as prestigious? I just like to know what I'm watching, since I wouldn't know if the teams were fielding weakened sides as I don't know any of the players that well.

Also, what is the possibility of MLS teams participating? Do they already? That would be excellent to see them in a cup like that.

 Bobby – The Copa Libertadores is the most important club tournament for South Americans but a country mile. Clubs will play weakened sides in their domestic competitions in order to have their best available for the Copa Libertadores. Mexican clubs participate by invite and have done so for a few years. MLS clubs being invited might a few years away yet.

 

Alan Pardew looks at Jurgen Klinsmann’s attitude and comments on Bruce Arena’s sideline reaction.

Stewart Robson considers some of the key  France and Spain battles.

Christopher Davies views the now crumbling hard line taken by FIFA on stricter refereeing.

Wigan manager Paul Jewell gives his thoughts on Portugal’s problems.