It will be interesting to see what sort of coverage and viewing figures the FA Cup semi-finals get when they go head-to-head with the Premiership this weekend. Portsmouth and Cardiff start as favourites but that is hardly an enviable position given the number of upsets in this season’s competition.
Portsmouth will probably bide their time looking for West Brom to push forward. Certainly there is no doubt about the Albion’s ability to score in the Championship (78 so far) but their defence does leak with 51 goals against in 40 games.
If you are a Barnsley supporter it must really be a case of nearly the best of times and nearly the worst of times – Barnsley have such a long history they have seen better and also worst. Even so their fantastic Cup wins over Liverpool and Chelsea have not earned them any easy points as they try to avoid the drop to League One.
One win in nine league games means that goal difference is the only thing keeping the Yorkshire team from the relegation zone. Cardiff harbours no such threat from relegation and have been able to maintain some decent league form during their Cup run to the point that they still retain a faint hope of securing a promotion play-off spot.
Prediction – West Brom vs. Cardiff in the Final.
The bookending of the Premiership match between Arsenal and Liverpool by the quarter final of the Champions League takes a bit of the sheen of this weekend’s game. Will the managers choose to rest some players or will it be a case of the same again. Wenger says he has not given up on the title and so if that is true then we should see little change. After creating a five point gap with Everton Liverpool will not want to risk that number shrinking.
With Boro and Manchester City having little to play for – City may look to have an outside chance of a UEFA Cup spot but not based on recent form – Manchester United and Chelsea will be hoping to increase the gap on Arsenal and Liverpool.
At the relegation end of the table Wigan vs. Birmingham, Fulham vs. Sunderland are six pointers while Newcastle (a much happier Newcastle) would like to keep Reading below them and Villa needs to stop a run of three straight losses (and shut outs) against Bolton.
Sevilla versus Villarreal has the makings of a top class game as does Mallorca against Real Madrid. Villarreal are the form team at the moment although there is a train of thought that when Villarreal gets into a position to really challenge for some silverware that is when it starts to go all wobbly for them.
Mallorca have only one loss in their last their last twelve although seven finished as draws. What’s more David Guiza is cracking goals in at the moment for Mallorca and they have been known to give Real Madrid problems – Real came a cropper in the Copa del Rey this season.
Robert Philip manages to name check Mary Queen of Scots, Scotty from Star Trek, ####es, Bill Shankly and Sean Connery before getting to the point of his football article. You really just need to read his introduction.
Another idea of how to generate stadium revenue. Sounds a bit bizarre but....
A Soccer America interview with USA national team boss Bob Bradley.
The Financial Times and Guardian articles on Manchester United record revenue and profits are the best I have read in terms of giving good information about the interest payments.
From the top to the near bottom - the reverse of Sir Alex Ferguson's journey. The Times with a positive story about East Stirlingshire - the team that offerred Ferguson his first job in hairdressing nearly thirty four years ago.
With Newcastle United pulling the plug on another manager it is worth looking at the performance of the not-so-magnificent seven (although in relation to Keegan and Robson that remark should be tempered) during the Premiership years. Newcastle was not a charter member of the Premiership but after missing out on the first season Keegan secured promotion in his first full season.
Here are the managers, the position the club was in when they “left”, games in charge, average points gained and the approximate net outlay in transfer fees – it is a lot.
The list is in chronological order:
o Kevin Keegan – 4th, 143 games, 1.85 points, $80M
o Kenny Dalglish – 13th*, 56 games, 1.34 points, $27M
o Ruud Gullit – 19th, 41 games, 1.65 points, $13.6M
o Sir Bobby Robson – 17th, 188 games, 1.60 points, $58M
o Graeme Souness – 16th, 56 games, 1.16 points, $66M
o Glen Roeder – 13th, 52 games, 1.42 points, $19M
o Sam Allardyce – 11th, 21 games, 1.24 points, $28M
(Dalglish carries an asterisk as he was fired only two games into a season and 13th was the previous season’s finishing position.)
From Gullit on the managers are getting fired with the team sitting in ever higher positions. Maybe it is all part of some cunning plan to literally fire Newcastle to the top?
Looking back the failure to use the relatively successful spell under Bobby Robson to groom a successor was a faux pas of immense proportions. Who in their right mind would operate with one of their most important employees past the age 70 and with no succession plan in place?
As for Allardyce I don’t think any fair minded person would accept that half a season is enough time to turn a team that has failed to win a major domestic trophy in over half a century around.
A significant number of Newcastle fans are apparently upset at the type of football Allardyce had the team playing. But again if you are trying to change a culture of mediocrity then there is going to be protracted spell of rubbish dished up – that should not be a surprise. And in terms of a new manager it is likely to be more of the same.
I often wonder if a new manger might not get better results and reduce short term expectations if instead of asking for the cheque book he told players that they had half a season to prove themselves.
Immediately moving to sign new players and dumping the ones signed by the predecessor just leads to a belief that improvement will be immediate. Then if the new signings fail to impress – as they did in the Allardyce/Newcastle situation – the pressure mounts and the revolving door starts to rotate once more.
As for a successor, the names are beginning to appear in the press and on websites. Harry Rednapp, Mark Hughes, Steve McClaren (surely not!!) are all getting some play in the media. The odds are a Keegan return have also been slashed.
But as Simon Barnes said in The Times last weekend will a new manager be given a fair crack while Alan Shearer continues in the role of the best manager never to have managed Newcastle?
It would seem that Mike Ashley has done the easy bit in firing Big Sam, the hard bit is convincing someone of quality to pick up the poisoned chalice.
Quick free kicks
A number of teams are looking to cure some sporadic bouts of Premiership travel sickness this weekend. Spurs travels to Stamford Bridge in what could be a preview of the Carling Cup Final. But travelling to Stamford Bridge, Old Trafford, Anfield and wherever Arsenal were playing at the time, has not brought much joy to Spurs. In sixty-three Premiership trips to these grounds Spurs have won just twice - a win at Arsenal and a win at Liverpool.
Manchester City are the visitors to Goodison but they have only one once in ten Premiership visits to Goodison – and that was way back in October 1992.
Middlesbrough may not have scored against Liverpool in their last four Premiership encounters but Liverpool are without a win at the Riverside in their last five visits - two losses and three draws for the Reds. Despite Boro’s spotted form over the last couple of years the Riverside is still a place where bigger teams often come a cropper. United, Chelsea and Arsenal have all lost at the Riverside in the last two and a bit seasons
Oh and let us not forget that no matter who has been in charge of Newcastle a trip to Old Trafford as never ended in three points for the Magpies – it has however often finished with a loss (nine times) and sometimes a draw - five of them.
This weekend offers Reading, Wigan, and Fulham another opportunity to pick up three points away from home for the first time. This time against Aston Villa, Derby County and West Ham respectively. Also without an away win are Bolton, Sunderland, and Derby County but they will have to wait for another day.
Don’t mention anything about the romance of the FA Cup to Huddersfield Town manager Andy Ritchie.
An opportunity for our Liverpool fans to point out why Scott Murray is wrong.
For those looking to get right into the African Cup of Nations the All Soccer Africa website has a Nations Cup fantasy league feature. The site also has country-by-country previews and squad lists and it looks to be going all out to cover the 2008 edition.
It’s the third round of the FA Cup this weekend and this is where the big teams get involved. Here is a rundown of a few Championship vs. Premiership games followed by predictions. I don’t do weekly league predictions but I thought it might be interesting to follow the Cup from the third round on. If you want to give it a go then post your predictions (eventual winners only count no draws) and keep score – it’s on the honour system right through to the final in May.
Ipswich Town v Portsmouth These two met in the third round two years ago and Portsmouth won 1-0. This time we have a side with a fantastic home record (Ipswich) against Portsmouth who have won eight of twelve Premiership away games this season. Former Southampton midfielder Jim Magilton has Ipswich unbeaten at home in the Championship with eleven wins from thirteen matches and scoring 33 goals and only conceding 7. Contrast that with an away record on no wins, four draws and nine losses and you can see why it is a case of “no place like home” for Ipswich. It is not often you come across a team that simultaneously hold s the best home record and worst away record in a league. Ipswich currently sits 6th in the fizzy-pop Championship and beat league leaders West Brom 2-0 on Wednesday. Former Canadian captain Jason De Vos scored.
Bristol City v Middlesbrough Former Yeovil and Latvia manager (how is that for an exotic career) Gary Johnson has Bristol City third in the Championship and with only one loss in their last nine league games. This tie brings together two teams that needed penalty kicks to separate them last season in the 4th round – Boro eventually winning. Neither club has ever won the FA Cup but both have been runners up – Bristol City 99 years ago and Boro in 1997. Boro will be without Woodgate who is suspended and Robert Huth (remember him?) might get the call. Huth missed the first four months of this season before finally returning from injury at the start of last month.
Stoke City v Newcastle United With only one point out of a possible 12 over the holiday period and Joey Barton seemingly intent on starring in Mean Machine 2 things are bleaker than ever for Sam Allardyce and Newcastle supporters. A push for a European spot would require a monumental effort especially given Newcastle’s January schedule. They have Manchester City h, Manchester United h and a, Arsenal a, Aston Villa a, and the other two games are against Bolton and Middlesbrough at St. James’ Park.
Despite pronouncements from owner Mike Ashley that he is not currently looking for a new boss it is clear that it all could change very quickly. But the FA Cup does offer an escape route and a run deep into the competition might be enough to salvage this season. However, Newcastle have not been given an easy task in the third round. They face a Stoke City side that is currently in fourth place in the Championship as well as knowing a thing or two about managerial turnover.
Regarded as the second oldest football club in the world Stoke in their first 103 years had 16 managers. In the last 30 years they have gone through 24 and have averaged a manager a year since 1991. Tony Pulis returned for his second stint in charge in 2006 and engineered a solid late run of results that saw Stoke finish just outside the promotion play-off spots.
Pulis carries a reputation as a no nonsense boss and has a few Premiership players in his squad. Former Southampton striker Ricardo Fuller is Stoke’s leading scorer with 11 and former Sunderland player Liam Lawrence has 8 goals so far. Steve Simonsen was once an expensive teenage signing from Tranmere for Everton but he now keeps goal for Stoke. Dominic Matteo (former Leeds and Liverpool) and Salif Diao (Liverpool) are other recognizable names. Stoke rarely blow teams away and vice versa so Newcastle are going to be in for a tough time of it.
Chelsea v Queens Park Rangers This is the seventh successive time that FA Cup holders Chelsea have been drawn at home in the FA Cup. Their opponents this time might as well be called “Mini-Chelsea”. With Chelsea backed by Abramovich’s billions, Queens Park Rangers have the financial clout of the world’s 5th richest man (Lakshi Mittal owns 20% of the club) as well as Formula One’s Flavio Briatore and Bernie Ecclestone. Former Napoli and Siena manager Luigi De Canio was appointed QPR boss in late October after John Gregory was sacked and has been given money to spend – and potentially there is lots more of it.
From his initial dealings the focus appears to be to generally upgrade the team rather blowing money on Premiership calibre players right from the off. One loss in the last seven league games has helped move QPR out of the relegation zone and it looks as if the ownership group is opting to build for long term success rather than risking a flame-out. It has been six seasons since QPR reached the 4th round and they are unlikely to improve on that this season. But there is every chance we are going to hear a lot more about the team in years to come.
FA Cup 3rd Round - predicted winners in bold Saturday - Aston Villa v Man Utd; Barnsley v Blackpool; Blackburn v Coventry; Bolton v Sheff Utd; Brighton v Mansfield; Bristol City v Middlesbrough; Charlton v West Brom; Chasetown v Cardiff; Chelsea v QPR; Colchester v Peterborough; Everton v Oldham; Huddersfield v Birmingham; Ipswich v Portsmouth; Norwich v Bury; Plymouth v Hull; Preston v Scunthorpe; Southampton v Leicester; Southend v Dagenham & Redbridge; Sunderland v Wigan; Swansea v Havant & Waterlooville; Swindon v Barnet; Tottenham v Reading; Tranmere v Hereford; Walsall v Millwall; Watford v Crystal Palace; West Ham v Man City; Wolverhampton v Cambridge Utd. Sunday - Burnley v Arsenal; Derby v Sheff Wed; Fulham v Bristol Rovers; Luton v Liverpool; Stoke v Newcastle.
It must be difficult to convince supporters of the three Premiership teams located in the north-east of England that it is the season of good cheer. As it currently stands Newcastle, Middlesbrough and Sunderland have played six games over the holiday period and have the sum total of one point to show for it. Even then it required a late equalizer from Mark Viduka to earn the single point against foot-of-the-table Derby County.
A stirring performance against Arsenal in the first week of December seemed to have set Newcastle on the right path as they followed the draw up with wins against Birmingham and Fulham. But the scrambled draw with Derby and an anemic loss to Wigan had Sam Allardyce publically questioning his players.
Full points from these very-winnable four games would have earned Newcastle more breathing space and moved them into a top eight position. As it is, they sit just below mid-table with 26 points with the definite possibility that come the beginning of March that they will not have too many more.
Starting on Saturday with a trip to Stamford Bridge Newcastle will play eight Premiership games with six of them against top half opposition (Manchester City h, Manchester United h and a, Arsenal a, Aston Villa a), and the other two against Bolton and Middlesbrough at St. James’ Park. There is also a tricky FA Cup third round match in two weeks time away to Stoke City who are currently in the top four of the Championship.
With the team again taking two steps forward and three back Allardyce’s position is again the subject of speculation. You get the feeling that if Big Sam is going to survive then Newcastle has to pull off some big results and pick up a few points over the next two months. But there again if you are going to be labeled unpredictable then there has to be good times as well as bad – will this weekend be one of the good times?
Only two weeks after losing their unbeaten home record to Manchester United, Liverpool faces the other Manchester side this Sunday. City’s form over the first eight home games this season was nothing short of spectacular with eight wins, thirteen goals scored and only three conceded. The streak extended to nine with a win over Bolton although it took three second half goals to overturn a 2-1 half time lead for Bolton.
Three days later Spurs came to City of Manchester Stadium and pulled off a 2-0 Carling Cup win while playing for almost an hour with ten-men and Blackburn became the first team to leave with a point in the Premiership when they drew on Thursday.
All the signs seem to be pointing to City’s home streak running short on steam. Liverpool needs to keep winning in order to maintain their title aspirations while if City are to remain in the six more home points are crucial. All things point to a cracking good game.
Everton and Arsenal is another good game in prospect. Out of the top four clubs Arsenal drew the toughest holiday schedule. So far the Gunners have mimicked results from last season with a win over Tottenham and a draw at Portsmouth.
They will be hoping that results against Everton (Saturday) and West Ham (Tuesday) are not replicated as they lost both games last season by the same score - 1-0. Goodison has not being a profitable venue for Arsenal with Everton winning three and drawing one of their last five meetings.
No doubt the Everton coaching staff will have taken notice of Portsmouth’s display on Wednesday in holding Arsenal off the score sheet for the first time this season in the Premiership.
The centre-back partnership of Campbell and Distan were outstanding and the Portsmouth midfield gave Arsenal very little time and space to operate. Everton seem to have similar types of players and with Yakubu and Cahill carrying a scoring threat it could be another tough ninety minutes for Arsenal.
Quick free kicks Manchester United toyed with Sunderland in midweek cutting their defence to ribbons. Roy Keane has to find an experienced centre back to plug the Sunderland defence – and not one from the Championship.
Scoring streaks - Marcus Bent has scored 7 goals in his last 13 Prem appearances - that was over three months. It took him 90 games and over three years to score his previous seven Premiership goals.
Pity Blackburn’s Roque Santa Cruz. He’s scored seven goals in his last four games but during that spell Rovers have lost three games and tied the other.
This is an article from last Sunday that I did not come upon until later on Monday. Rod Little on what appears to be an escalating financial crisis that has the potential to decimate clubs in the Football League.
It’s not only the Premiership that is a magnet for wealthy owners. The same thing has been happening in the Israeli league for the last few years and here is another takeover.
National team coach linked with Scottish coaching position. It's not Bruce Arena and it's not the national team job either. The Arena story detailing his supposed interest in the Scotland job must go down as one of the stupidest soccer stories of the year.
Is it just me or does this declaration of success not seem a bit premature given that there have been no contentious calls?
The Canadian Soccer Association said that would have a new staff person in place before the end of the year. With a job posting just up this week the only way that they can hit their self-imposed deadline is if a fix is in. It is not the first that they have failed to come though on a promise – talk about not getting it.
A look at the worst British transfers of all time. You do not get a prize for guessing the top two. Any that you care to add.?
Early this week on The Times podcast Bill Edgar pointed out that excluding games between each other Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United had only lost four games at home over the last two and a bit seasons.
That got me thinking and I thought it might be interesting to go back to the 2003/04 season (the start of the Abramovich era) and look at Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United’s performances over four and a bit seasons.
During that time they have played 336 Premiership matches at home. They have collectively won 236 games (70%) drawn 76 (23%) and lost 24 (7%). But of the 24 losses, 14 have come from games between one and other leaving the other Premiership sides with only 10 away wins in the remaining 284 games – 4%. Only eight clubs have won at Highbury/Emirates, Stamford Bridge, Anfield or Old Trafford.
The list comprises of West Ham at Arsenal 05/06 and 06/07, Bolton at Chelsea 03/04, Boro and Fulham at United 03/04, Blackburn Rovers 05/06, West Ham 06/07, and at Liverpool, Southampton and Charlton 03/04, Birmingham 04/05.
Sharpening the focus to head2head clashes brought forward the following information. There have been 52 games involving these teams and each team has played 26 games. Chelsea have the best performance.
Team Home points Away points Total
Chelsea 24 20 44 Man Utd 24 17 41 Arsenal 23 13 36 Liverpool 15 6 21
With Grand Slam Sunday only hours away the statistic that sticks out is Liverpool’s performance. The maximum points Liverpool have taken in a season against Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United have been six – 2003/04 and last season.
What’s more – confirmed with the help of the blog’s trusty Liverpool fans – is that Liverpool have failed to take a single point in the last nine away games against Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United. Their best home performance over the same period was six picked up courtesy of two home wins against Chelsea and Arsenal.
After Sunday’s game against Manchester United, Liverpool have to travel to the grounds of their three closest rivals during the remainder of the season.
If Liverpool are to mount a challenge for the Premiership title this season then it would appear almost impossible to do so without improving their record against the other three and in particular away from the friendly confines of Anfield. In the 26 head to head matches since 03/04 Liverpool has 6 wins, 3 draws and 17 losses.
Other head2head stats – the most points picked up in the four-team series in a season since 03/04 was 15 by Chelsea in 2005/06. A clean of away fixtures has not been achieved in that time but two teams managed the feat at home – Chelsea and Manchester United both did it in the 2005/06 season and neither conceded a goal.
In the 52 games since 03/04 there have been five scoreless draws. That’s higher than we see over a season but considering the tension and what is usually at stake it gives hope that Sunday will not only brings thrills and controversy but goals as well.
Of course Sunday’s action will be preceded by the FIFA Club World Cup in Yokohama, Japan. Not unexpectedly the tournament has failed again to garner worldwide interest - my understanding is that in the UK the game is not being broadcast – but surely no self respecting fan can pass up the chance to watch the world’s most successful clubs?
According to Champions magazine Milan and Boca Juniors will go into Sunday’s match having won 17 international titles each – the world’s most successful club sides. Neither side hit full stride in winning their semi final match by one goal but there is no doubt that both teams want to be acclaimed World Champions.
Paul Doyle on why it would be a folly to believe that Spurs are too good to go down. He includes a mini-table of the teams that currently occupy the lower reaches of the table – something that I was thinking of pulling together but he got there first.
Plans afoot to mark the 50th anniversary of the Munich disaster.
Two weeks ago the Premiership’s bottom three teams ran up against Chelsea (Derby), Arsenal (Wigan) and Manchester United (Bolton). It is a case of more of the same with another weekend dominated by bottom versus top match-ups – or vice-versa.
Arsenal is away to Middlesbrough, struggling Derby is at Old Trafford to play Manchester United, Sunderland is in London to play Chelsea while Reading is home to a rampaging Liverpool side.
Bolton pulled off a massive upset a fortnight ago in beating Manchester United. Can any of these four teams match that performance? If it is to be Boro then they need a seismic improvement in current form.
Arsenal held on at St. James’ Park in midweek for a draw but Boro is without a win in ten Premiership games and have conceded the first goal in twelve of their fifteen league games. It means Boro now occupies a relegation spot for the first time since August 2004.
Very much against the odds Derby has twice won at Old Trafford in the Premiership but another win is as likely as Steve McClaren being told it was all a big mistake and he is still in charge of the England team.
Sunderland pulled off a crucial win against Derby last week courtesy of a last minute goal from Anthony Stokes. Six of Sunderland’s thirteen points have come from goals scored in the 90th minute or later but they face a Chelsea team that has only let in one goal in the last eight league games.
Liverpool is another side that has lowered the shutters over the last few weeks. Nine clean sheets in fourteen games and four consecutive clean sheets since they conceded a late equalizer to Cesc Fabregas at the end of October has helped Liverpool to the best defensive record in the Premiership.
Fernando Torres has scored six of his eleven goals for Liverpool in the Premiership but he has yet to notch a Prem goal away from Anfield.
Reading is eleven points of their pace of last season and a look at the statistics quickly tells you why. A defence that has let in fourteen more goals must take much of the responsibility but an anemic first half attack does not get off scot-free.
The attack has actually one more goal than last season (18 to 17) but only four have come in the first forty five minutes. Last season twelve of their seventeen goals came before the half time cuppa.
Stats corner – Some of the other matches this weekend in the Premiership throw off interesting statistics. Three of the last four league games between Villa and Portsmouth have finished as draws. But Portsmouth has only one Premiership win over Aston Villa, has not won on their last ten visits to Villa Park and their last league win was in the old 2nd Division in 1970.
Tottenham’s woes continued last week as they lost at home to a last minute Birmingham goal. A cure? Well it may come in the form of a visit from Manchester City. In their twenty Premiership games Spurs have taken 45 points from a possible 60 and have only lost twice to City.
However, if you are looking for a team that suffers from travel sickness and in particular a Liverpool version then look no further than Fulham. Fulham has never won a league game at Goodison or Anfield in forty-nine attempts. What is more in thirty-eight league games between Fulham and Everton the away team as only won three – all by Everton. Their last fifteen league matches have all been won by the home side. The game is at Goodison.
In Serie A Inter and Roma now have a bit of padding with a five point gap between second place Roma and third place Juventus. Based on the fixtures this weekend it seems unlikely that Juventus will make up some of that ground.
Inter plays mid-table Torino a team that doubles as the draw specialists. Their last four matches have finished as draws to give a record of nine ties in fourteen games. Torino is winless away from home and faces an Inter team that has been rampant in the first forty five minutes of games this season. Inter has a phenomenal record – they have outscored the opposition 17-2, have led at half time in twelve games and been tied in the other two.
Roma has only one loss (to Inter) so far and is gamely hanging in. They are away to 16th place Livorno, a team that lost seven and drew two of their first nine games. But since then three wins and two draws has given Livorno fans hope. Summer signing Francesco Tavano has been instrumental in the turnaround with five goals in the last six games.
Two seasons ago Tavano scored 19 Serie A goals for Empoli before departing for Valencia. His spell in Spain was unsuccessful and he moved to Roma on loan last January. Two goals in the second half of the season failed to persuade Roma that Tavano should be signed.
Faced with the loss of iconic forward Cristiano Lucarelli to Shakhtar Donetsk Livorno stepped in to secure the striker’s permanent return to Italy.
Third place Juventus is at home to Atalanta currently sixth while Udinese fourth faces an improving Sampdoria side.
A sure sign of how competitive Liga is – the team with the longest winning streak at the moment is Atletico Madrid with…….two straight wins. If it is goals that you are looking for then the Vicente Calderon is where you want to be. In their last four home games in the league Atletico has scored 4, 4, 3, and 4 winning three and losing one.
These four games have produced an incredible 25 goals. This week Getafe provides the opposition and will be looking to continue their improved form. The first seven games this season brought two draws and five losses. However, their last seven have seen five wins a draw and only one loss.
Half way around the world the FIFA Club World Cup will get underway early on Friday morning – on the east coast of North America anyway. Iranian champions Sepahan kicks off the competition against Waitakre United from New Zealand. Sepahan lost to Urawa Red Diamonds in the Asian Champions League but with two host federation spots available both teams qualified.
Concacaf interest centres on Pachuca, a side that has recently gone off the boil. After winning five trophies (including beating Chivas of Guadalajara in the Concacaf Champions League final on penalties) in less than two years the Mexicans are struggling to regain their form.
On Sunday they face African Champions Etoile Sportive du Sahel. We have to wait until midweek for Boca Juniors and Milan’s involvement. Boca and Milan have been kept separate with a final clash the most likely outcome.
This is a tournament that requires an upset if it is to ever capture worldwide attention – something we have yet to see.
After a week of international drama it is back to domestic action – well at least until the draw for the qualifying rounds of the 2010 World Cup takes place on Sunday. Seeding has been worked out but requires ratification on Saturday.
The World Cup draw calls for a blog special come Sunday so the weekend preview will be abbreviated. And to be honest it is just as well because there appears to be precious few games that have anything close to a “don’t miss’’ attached to them.
The bottom three teams in the Premiership will have a tough time ensuring that the hole that they are in doesn’t get any deeper. Derby are at home to Chelsea who are unbeaten in their last six games and have only conceded one goal in the process. Derby on the other hand have let in 30 more goals than that in 13 games and have only scored five goals. Projected over an entire season Derby would not even hit the 20 point mark.
Bolton with three draws in their last three Premiership games would be positively giddy if they found a way to extend the run to four against Manchester United. However, the form book and history both indicate anything but a United win to be an unlikely outcome.
Bolton have only led in two of their 13 games at half time while United have only trailed in a match for a total of 83 minutes out of the 1,170 Premiership minutes they have played this season. Bolton have never beaten United at home in the Premiership (3 draws and 5 losses) while they have conceded 40 goals to United in sixteen Premiership games.
That’s seven more than Chelsea have scored against Bolton and with a game more played. Cap it all off with the fact that Bolton have conceded more first half goals (13) than any other team in Premiership then the signs are that if Bolton are not careful the game could be over almost before it has started.
It looks as if Arsenal will be missing Cesc Fabregas through suspension as well as Flamini and Hleb who both picked up injuries on international duty. The appointment of Steve Bruce as Wigan manager is on again and the deal could be closed before the weekend.
Wigan’s two and a bit seasons in the Premiership has still to produce a win over Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea or Arsenal. This season the problem is magnified with a single draw against West Ham United the only point gained against a top ten team.
The most promising Premiership match of the weekend appears to be set for Tyneside where Newcastle faces Liverpool. Anytime these two go head-to-head there is bound to be mention of the two classic games in 1996 and 1997. Both matches finished in 4-3 wins for Liverpool. Both games saw leads seesaw back and forward in both cases Liverpool scored a winner in the dying seconds.
Newcastle holds an edge in Premiership games at St. James’ against Liverpool (6 wins, 4 losses and 4 draws) and with 13 points from 6 home games only Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal & Aston Villa have better home records this season.
This will be the first time this season that Newcastle have faced one of the “big four”. Newcastle also have a make-up game at home to Arsenal on December 5. Next week brings Blackburn so the Magpies are in for a testing time over the next few weeks.
Liverpool have only scored 7 goals in 6 away games but with 4 wins and 2 draws they have gained more away points (14) than any other side. What’s more they have kept the opposition off the score sheet four times in the six games.
Quick free kicks – Birmingham have five wins and three draws against Portsmouth on their last eight visits to St. Andrews…….the last meeting was a 5-0 thrashing but Birmingham were still relegated at season’s end while Portsmouth escaped the drop.
Blackburn and Aston Villa will be traveling with some confidence to play Fulham and Middlesbrough respectively. Blackburn have won four times in six Premiership visits to Craven Cottage while Villa have left the Riverside with seven wins and two draws in 12 games.
Everton and Sunderland may have played each other 144 times in league action over the past 117 years but they are as evenly split as they were in 1890. Back then both teams won their respective home matches 1-0 and since then they have traded wins with a few draws thrown in for good measure. Sixty-one wins each and twenty-two draws although Everton fans will claim cup matches as a tie breaker. In that case Everton “dominates” with two more wins.
It is own up time. Here are the predictions I posted last August along with the remarks made at the time. Also included are the actual 2006/07 Premiership positions.
Prediction Chelsea 1st - too strong. Actual position 2nd.
Prediction Liverpool 2nd - will push Chelsea hard but ultimately they will come up just short. Actual position 3rd
Prediction Manchester United 3rd - in the past those who written-off SAF have had to eat crow, but…… Actual position Champions.
Prediction Arsenal 4th – they will be great to watch again but a legitimate title challenge will have to wait. Actual position 4th.
Prediction Everton 5th – Simple stuff. Johnson + Beattie = more goals. The Toffees move up the Premiership. Actual position 6th
Prediction West Ham 6th – A side that showed last season that it has a great upside. Actual position 15th
Prediction Aston Villa 7th– The O’Neill factor. Actual position 11th
Prediction Tottenham 8th– Will they continue to build on last season’s progress or take a step back? The latter for me. Actual position 5th
Prediction Bolton 9th – More liable to slip back than to move forward. Actual position 7th
Prediction Newcastle 10th – Criticism of the Newcastle defence last season is not supported by the statistics. But where will the goals come from? Actual position 13th
Prediction Blackburn 11th – Europe plus loss of Bellamy and Rovers’ league position will slip. Actual position 10th
Prediction Middlesbrough 12th – Many expect Boro to struggle in the bottom four or five. They will have their problems early on but will settle into a mid-table position. Actual position 12th
Prediction Portsmouth 13th – Money, money, money it’s a ‘Arry Rednapp world. Actual position 9th
Prediction Reading 14th – Goals will not come as freely as last season but they will produce enough to guarantee season in the Premiership. Actual position 8th
Prediction Wigan 15th – Last season’s over-achievers will be given more respect this season – to their cost. Actual position 17th
Prediction Manchester City 16th – The second half of last season was a disaster and Stuart Pearce will be severely tested. Actual position 14th
Prediction Sheffield United 17th – It will touch and go and Neil Warnock’s wallet will be lighter by season-end. Actual position 18th
Prediction Fulham 18th – The Cottagers will be better away from home but they are unlikely to replicate last season’s form. Actual position 16th
Prediction Charlton 19th – Alan Curbishley got out in time. Actual position 19th
Prediction Watford 20th – Gap in class will be too much. Actual position 20th
At the same time we asked readers to submit their predictions for the top 5 Premiership finishers, the three sides to be relegated and who would be the most improved side and the most disappointing. I have defined “most disappointing” as the greatest number of points dropped from last season to the one just completed.
Only 5 people out of 70 picked Manchester United to win the Premiership. The most popular top 5 pick was Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur. Nobody picked the top 5 in the correct order but the closest was roseboy64 and looneyrooney14 who both picked the first three correctly but flipped Spurs and Arsenal.
Ancanada and Pablo_Chicago actually picked the top four in order but opted for Everton to take 5th spot and they finished two points behind Spurs in 6th.
At the other end of the table the most favoured combination was in reverse order Watford, Sheffield United and Fulham. Eleven opted for Charlton which was only half of the number who picked Fulham. Five picked the correct three teams to be relegated but not necessarily in the finishing order. They were roseboy64, Gunning_Steve, Irish_Scouser, andregurov, and FirstTouch. Only one poster got it spot on and that was owenspapa who picked the three teams to go down and in the correct order.
Next up was the most improved team. Based on points gained the honour goes to Portsmouth who improved by 16 points. The next best performance was Everton with 8 more points. Everton had been the choice of most back in August. Nine correctly picked Portsmouth – crispygreasy00, Venti_Vidi_Vici, Pablo_Chicago, roseboy64, cubsfan05, Irish_Scouser, Goldice007, AlanV and ooohalberto.
As for the most disappointing team that turned out to be Newcastle which had been the pick of five people back in August. Picking correctly were d2cents, wickedzoot, buffytvs, Irish_Scouser, Frenchmansv31, and wja425. Roseboy64 came very close to making a sweep but chose Charlton who only finished just behind the Magpies in the disappointing stakes by gaining 13 fewer points.
Thanks to all of you that took part and we will try to do it again in three months time.
Over the next few weeks I will be looking to develop a weekend preview piece. A few games will be highlighted and there is of course the opportuntity for readers to provide comments as they see fit.
Manchester United vs. Bolton and Chelsea vs. Sheffield United.........obviously United and Chelsea start as favourites. Didier Drogba and Cristiano Ronaldo will continue to battle it out for the Player of the Year Award.
At the over end the table Manchester City faces Middlesbrough. Based on their past record things don't look good for Stuart Pearce and City. City have lost 5 straight Premiership games have not won in 7 visits to Middlesbrough with 5 losses and 2 draws. In the Premiership City have only beaten Boro once in 15 games. These games are generally low scoring with only 4 goals in their last 4 games.
Watford are the latest team to try and tame the Tottenham Hotspur scoring machine and in particular Dimitar Berbetov. Watford with a win and two draws in their last four have equaled their best run of the season. Spurs appear to have given up stopping goals going in and have reverted to scoring more than the opposition - an interesting idea. The last time Spurs earned a shut out in the Premiership was back at the end of October against Watford in a scoreless draw.
In the Championship the race for promotion continues to be tighter than a Scotsman. At the bottom of the table it is the same thing. Luton have dropped into the relegation zone and Mike Newell was fired this week. Two teams trying to save thenmselves from slipping into League One clash this weekend when Southend United plays Leeds United. Oh how the once mighty have fallen.
Schalke 04 v VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga), Lazio v Empoli (Serie A), Recreativo Huelva v Barcelona (La Liga), and Porto vs. Sporting Lisbon (Portugal) appear to be the pick of games on the continent.
This weekend has a number of potentially great games. You can add your predictions, thoughts and comments over the weekend. For viewers of Fox Sports World Canada it will be wall-to-wall FA Cup action.
Saturday Middlesbrough vs. Manchester United (12:30 EST)
Sunday Chelsea vs. Tottenham (8:30 EST) Blackburn vs. Manchester City (12:00 EST) Plymouth vs. Watford (2:00 EST)
I normally try to keep predictions to a minimum - for the obvious reason that I am not very good at them (Jeremy claims I think too much) - but seeing that it looks like being a rather special weekend are some predictions for this weekend.
Chelsea - Spurs 3-2 Boro - Man. Utd.1-1 Blackburn - Man. City 2-0 Plymouth - Wattford 2-1
Celtic - Rangers 1-2 Bayern M.- Werder B. 1-1 Barca - Real Madrid 2-0 Inter - Milan 1-2
Finally Barcelona are in the team spotlight this week.
