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Speakers' Corner Responses #59
Nov 06, 2007 | 2:47PM | report this

Gongatore - If warranted is there a side in Europe that you could see Altidore going to in the next transfer window?
How do you rate Cruz and Zlatan at Inter?

Bobby – Moving clubs is an individual decision but from my point of view I think the rush to have Jozy Altidore move to Europe is ill-advised. He’s better off in MLS where he can play regularly for the next season or two. If he really makes an impact then when he moves he will be on his terms.

Cruz has scored goals throughout his career and continues to do so – a reliable goal scorer but well short of being one of the best. Zlatan on his day can be one of the world’s best players. It depends on whether or not it is his day!

Albertagooner - I'm trying to figure out how Patrick Barclay has managed to spot Arsenal's aerial weakness. Neither of United's goals involved a high ball hoofed into the box. In any event, both Gallas and Toure have a wonderful spring. I'd rather have them than taller defenders who have difficult marking strikers, such as Jamie Carragher or John Terry.

Bobby – I think Barclay is identifying a more traditional weakness rather than one that showed up on Saturday. The problem use to show up when Sol Campbell was missing and there is still a doubt in my mind about how well Arsenal deal with crosses.

It seems to me one of the things that they have improved on this year is not allowing so many crosses to reach the penalty box. I don’t have the stats to prove that and it could just be a case of Arsenal retaining more possession. I never considered Jamie Carragher to have had any trouble marking strikers. The only issue with Terry is that sometimes he can be caught out by a quick forward one-on-one but his anticipation and the way he plays the angles makes it a rare occurrence.

gabemar Would you rate the chances of the three teams (Villarreal, Fiorentina and Man. City), who seem to be challenging the status quo on the three big leagues, at contending for at least CL spot until the end of the season? Also the last few weeks you have not been wearing your glasses at FSR. Are you wearing contacts or did you have lasik surgery? How do you like not wearing them?

Bobby – Villarreal and Fiorentina, Champions League spots yes. Manchester City – the jury is still out. Apart from a very poor start last season Villarreal has been a consistent performer in Liga for a few seasons now and it would not be a surprise to see them finish in the top four.

Fiorentina has an outstanding manger in Cesare Prandelli did a great job with Parma and it was unfortunate that he could not stick with Roma when he was appointed. Fiorentina’s Sporting Director Pantaleo Corvino has a great reputation and the two of them seem to putting together a very good team – even though they regularly lose players. Mutu is playing great again and Pazzini could become a very good player. There are lots of others as well.

City has a habit of starting well and fading and it might turn out to be different under SGE. However, it was interesting to note that Eriksson commented last week that he felt that other clubs might be preparing better when facing City. I think what he really meant was other teams were looking for ways to shut down Elano. Against Sunderland yesterday City collected three points but it was brutal performance by both sides.

I had laser surgery a few weeks ago and it has been great. No problems and I have my distance sight back again. Still need readers for close work in poor light but that was expected.

Flashman - How much longer can AC Milan resist the urge to pull the trigger and bring in a new manager? Huh?  And how much longer can AC Milan resist the urge to make that new manager the former manager at Chelski? Yeah, the Portuguese bloke, Mourinho. That's the one.

And how long will we have to endure the myth that this year's edition of the Arsene Wenger Slight of Hand Show is the New Invincibles? Coz it ain't. It simply has to be said, because no one elsewhere has bothered to note this, that Arsenal, thus far, have played one of the softest league schedules imaginable. They've been outside of London proper only once in league play this year and coughed up an away draw to nasty Bla-hack-ahack-aburn Rovers.

Bobby – Ancelotti’s now served six years at the San Siro and his time has to be up soon. One way of coaxing the last possible piece of talent out of an older squad is to change the manager.

In terms of Arsenal’s schedule so far you are right but it is a bit of a red herring. London teams are all going to be in a similar position given that if you include Reading there are six London teams. That means that this season Arsenal will play nearly 2/3rds of their games in the London area. The counter to your argument has been put forward by a number of London clubs. The suggestion is that because of the high number of derby games London clubs actually have a tougher time of it.

Arsenal’s schedule is out of sync but that is down to the Champions League third round qualifying game that bumped an early season trip to Newcastle.  As for being an easy schedule there are always going to be easy and more difficult runs. But if you compare to Tottenham’s schedule you will find that both clubs have played Sunderland, Derby, Manchester United, Fulham, Bolton, Liverpool and Blackburn Rovers. Spurs have faced five away games to Arsenal’s three. Of the remaining games Spurs have played Villa, Newcastle, Boro and Everton. Arsenal have played Manchester City, Portsmouth, and West Ham. Overall – probably about even.


PS – you missed Arsenal’s visit to Anfield of two weeks ago.


CIAO - When players and managers move to other clubs for large sums of money, you always hear them say "it wasn't about the money." The move usually is to a club that has a greater opportunity to win trophies.

That said, Ramos' move to Spurs puzzles me. He essentially built a good side that has been winning trophies. He quits too move to the Spurs. A club that placed 5th in the EPL for the past two seasons and has not won trophies. Does not play in the CL and potentially may not even qualify to play the CL next season...

It just doesn't add up. Do you by chance see some other reason (other than large sums of money) that would make Ramos' move an attractive one?

Bobby – Well the first thing I would point out is that Ramos did not build that Sevilla team – he has only been there for a little more than two seasons. He certainly turned them into trophy winners but the foundation was put in place for him – he took them over the top.

Sporting Director Ramon Rodriguez Verdejo appears to have played a more important role in turning Sevilla into a top club than Ramos. I don’t think Ramos tried to hide the fact that the money was too good to turn down.

Aldoray - What do you think about Peter Crouch as a player and his situation at Liverpool. I believe he is seriously being overlooked too often and he might be hitting the exit door at Anfield very soon along with Kewell.

Bobby – Here we go again. As I said on Monday night’s FSR a lot of people seem to think that because he is awkward to play against that it makes him a great player. When you hear Steven Gerrard suggest that Crouch has a great chance to break Jimmy Greaves England scoring record then you have to shake your head in disbelief.

The “Crouch is Great” lobby seems to base their views on his scoring record to minutes played as opposed to games appeared in. The argument goes something like this. He has an impact when he comes on and scores lots of goals so he should be on more often or earlier or even from the beginning. So let’s see if the statistics actually back up the view that Crouch is an underappreciated talent by Rafa Benitez and others.

I would suggest that the best statistics to use are from the Premiership. Reason – it gives a comparison to other strikers plus it shows the longer term effectiveness of a player against sides that are better prepared to play against the player having scouted strengths, weaknesses etc. more thoroughly.

Over the last two seasons and a bit Peter Crouch has appeared in 70 Premiership games for Liverpool – he has started in 47 and come on as a substitute in 23. He has scored 15 Premiership goals. Only four of these goals have been clutch goals – goals that either turned a potential draw into a win or a loss into a draw.

His average scoring rate is one goal every 4.66 appearances. That rate doesn’t get him in the top 100 Premiership scorers. Comparison examples - Henri Camara 3.41, James Beattie 3.99, Jan-Aage Fjortoff 3.36, Marian Pahars 3.07, Dion Dublin 2.81.

But, the Crouch lobby would argue, that goals per appearance are not a reliable indicator because although Crouch may appear many of his appearances are relatively short and have to be adjusted for. So in the interest of fairness I went back over the minutes actually played and converted into the equivalent of full ninety minute games.

This substantially improves Crouch’s average – it translates to a goal every 2.81 games, equal to Dion Dublin’s but Dublin’s average has not been adjusted to minutes played. I must have missed the “Dublin for England” lobby a few years ago. 

So how does Crouch’s record stack up against some of his contemporaries? I looked at two younger players over the last two and a bit seasons – Robin van Persie and Bobby Zamora. Based on goals per minutes played RVP clocks in at an average o####oal every 2.08 Premiership games - Bobby Zamora a goal every 2.64 Premiership games. Both substantially better than Crouch.

The next point that is normally argued is that Crouch is good in the air. Given that he is five inches short of seven foot tall he should be. Well what do the statistics show? Four of his 15 Premiership goals at Liverpool have come from headers (midfielder Tim Cahill in two and a bit seasons has scored from five headers for Everton).

An interesting stat that sticks out is how few games Crouch actually completes – only 19 full Premiership games in 47 starts. And it is not just a case of being substituted in the last five minutes. His average stint in a Premiership game for Liverpool (based on him starting) when substituted, is just a few seconds short of 65 minutes.

It’s also something that shows up in his England appearances. Add it all up and a reasonable conclusion is that Crouch finds it difficult to play ninety minutes hence the reason that Benitez starts him on bench so often. Rather than playing him against fresh players it would make more sense to have him come on late when defences are tired. And guess what - he looks impressive.

But the “Crouch is Great” group then jump to Crouch’s goals in the Champions League and for England. On the basis of goals scored his numbers are impressive…….but. His goals for England have come against Estonia, Macedonia, Andorra, Greece, Trinidad & Tobago, Jamaica, Hungary and Uruguay - clutch goals two. In addition he has only completed nine games although he has collected 22 caps.

In Champions League last season he scored all seven goals against group opponents (although PSV were also opponents in the first knock out phase). It strongly suggests that again Crouch’s value is in his awkwardness to play against and uniqueness. Teams facing him for the first time have difficulty dealing with him but over time they solve the problem.

So if you are looking for a striker who is tall but not necessarily good in the air, isn’t up to playing ninety minutes, and has trouble scoring clutch goals then I guess Peter Crouch is your man.

As for heading out of the door – could happen but he will not be joining a team better than Liverpool that is going to give him any more playing time.


Syncrew - 1 Now that Avram Grant has had 10 or so matches in charge ,what do you see as the big difference between Jose's and Avram's Chelsea ?
2 Since it’s up on the blog I may as well ask who you think is the most underrated and overrated striker in Europe?
3 How do you rate Alex? He seems to be doing well in place of Terry and is keeping Ben-Haim out of the team. (Ignore that foul against Schalke.)

Bobby – 1. It’s quieter around Stamford Bridge and Sir Alex Ferguson is aiming shots exclusively at the Emirates again.

2. You will have to define underrated and overrated. As I’ve pointed out before just because a player is considered “overrated” it doesn’t mean that he is not better than an “underrated” player. If I had to sign one striker in the world it would be a fit Samuel Eto’o.

3. Alex - Good player although I’m not sure keeping Ben-Haim out of the team should be the measure of him. I think his potential is well beyond a competent journeyman such as Ben-Haim.

 

Gunner44 - Is it Healthy for the game that 3 or is 4 managers have already lost their jobs and it's only been 2 1/2 months in the league. Is it the managers that are to blame or the Board? I read somewhere that someone said if Spurs don't improve the whole board should be fired.

 

Don't managers deserve more time to prove themselves? Very few managers have the ability to turn a team into a winning side in their first season. Like Jol should have been given at least till Jan before they left them go. He had been in top 5 for 2 straight seasons and almost took Arsenal out of top 4. Taking ManUre, Chelski, Liverfools and Arse out of top 4 won't be an easy thing to do and Jol came very close to doing it.

Bobby – It is a merry-go-round and I think the managers are wise to it. Sign a three year deal for a lot of money – if you get fired you get a huge pay out. What astonishes me are the choices that some owners make – Sammy Lee and Chris Hutchings stand out. The cost of relegation is huge (even after parachute payments) and if the club’s finances are stretched with longer term player contracts involving Premiership wages even if the side is relegated then the a financial meltdown is possible.

Djnima - 1. What do you think is the reason of Lampard's turnaround in form?
2. Have you heard anything of McLaren's visit to LA? A little bird told me that he may become the manager of the Galaxy after England doesn’t qualify. Becks has been recalled. Do you think he will make 100 caps?

Bobby – 1. The form of all players comes and goes and isn’t necessarily based on scoring goals. Lampard has spent the games prior to the one against Leicester in the Carling Cup shooting from almost anyplace. Just because they have started going in doesn’t mean that his form has necessarily turned around.

2. McClaren’s visit to LA appears to be pointless and beyond the ridiculous rumour that he is shopping himself to LA Galaxy I have not heard a reasonable explanation. If McClaren was looking to move then surely he would not be as stupid as this.

At least when SGE met with Abramovich he at least tried to keep it undercover.  Has Becks been recalled? You are ahead of me on that one. How about another explanation – McClaren came over in person to tell Beckham that he has not been recalled?

Wiegs9I have a silly question that maybe somebody can answer. What are the large, reddish #### lapel pins that you, Jeremy and Mitch were wearing last night and the ones that the Sky Sports presenters (and some Premiership managers) are wearing? Unfortunately, I must have missed the show where this was mentioned. Thanks!

Bobby – They are red poppies that are worn in Commonwealth countries in honour of the people who gave their lives during the wars. Remembrance Day is November 11 and the poppy is worn as a symbol and a mark of respect. The poppy flower was chosen as they grow in Flanders where some of the most brutal battles of WW1 were fought.

JayAlves - "Fergie support for Blatter stance on imports
Sir Alex Ferguson believes clubs should be seen to have 'a proportion of home-based players' - and feels rivals Arsenal would 'protest the loudest' at such a rule.”

Bobby – It is a sure sign that Ferguson is more concerned about Arsenal than the likes of Chelsea and Liverpool. I understand the full article quotes him as saying that all that would need to happen is for the Premiership clubs to agree to such a proposal. He is wrong.

Unless UEFA/FIFA are given full autonomy over soccer in Europe (and it is clear that will not happen) it would need the European Union to repeal the commitment to the free movement of labour within member countries (as it applies to soccer player) or at the very least agree to the exception under the terms of the "Lisbon Treaty" of a few weeeks ago which regards sport as special. It cannot be done unilaterally just because a few rich owners decide that they would like to.  

Although I’m sure that the United owners would be happy to see the value of their investment erode as worldwide television money would shrink and the price of “home-grown” players rocket.


In a perverted way United are to blame for this. Before Matt Busby took over the manager’s job at United teams never groomed young players as a way to build a team. They signed local players who played at lower levels or proven professional players from other clubs.

It was United’s then chairman James Gibson and Busby who came up with the idea of signing the best young players and developing them. The initial focus was on Manchester youngsters but as the pool dried up United cast a much wider net to cover the rest of England as well as Scotland, Wales and both parts of Ireland.

That is why the Busby Babes came from so many different parts of the British Isles. Other clubs would complain about United poaching “their” local products. Arsenal is using the same philosophy except now scouting is done on a global basis.

 MasMaz - I agree and disagree with your numbers on people watching Football worldwide. They are not anywhere as high as they claim but they are higher than you say. Especially for the WC final and the Champs league final. Did you ever see that movie about the child buddhist monk and his buddies trying to catch the '02 final?

Impossible to verify but I would guess that 200 million people watched the '02 final in Europe and South America between the 2 continents alone, adding the rest of the world I would say at least 300 million, maybe even 400.

Bobby – Television viewership of sporting events in 2006 - articles including numbers.

http://www.worldcupblog.org/world-cup-2006/wor
ld-cup-television-estimates-off-the-mark.html
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http://www.bloginitiative.com/

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75 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Jozy Altidore, Julio Cruz, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Arsenal, William Gallas, Kolo Toure, Villarreal, Fiorentina, Manchester City, Cesare Prandelli, Parma, Adrian Mutu, Elano, Juande Ramos, Sevilla, Ramon Rodriguez Verdejo, Peter Crouch, Jimmy Greaves, Steven Gerrard, Rafa Benitez
 
Injuries and unexpected benefits.
Jun 08, 2006 | 11:20AM | report this

With the start of the World Cup just a day away, injuries and sickness are front and centre. The Rooney recovery still dominates the headlines although I have a feeling that the true test will come when Sven decides to give young Wayne his first serious action.

As English fans rejoice at the news of Rooney’s recovery, a doubt about Steven Gerrard’s fitness for the first game has now surfaced. Gerrard’s name joins the likes of Gattuso (Italy), Ballack (Germany), Isaksson (Sweden), Ronaldo (Brazil) and Cisse of France as either being doubtful for their countries opening game or – in the case of Cisse – out of the competition altogether. 

Moreover, these are just the players we know about. As in other World Cups, countries that can avoid injuries to key players have an advantage but often an understudy gets a chance to play Hamlet and pulls off a standing ovation or two.

 Pele was injured and missed most of the 1962 Finals in Chile. His replacement Amarildo scored and set-up goals in the final while Garrincha became the star of the tournament.

Four years later Jimmy Greaves – the Michael Owen of his generation except better – damaged his shin during group play. Alf Ramsay brought in Geoff Hurst who at that time was considered largely untested. Hurst scored the only game of the quarterfinal against Argentina and then had a hat trick in a winning cause against West Germany in the final.

A legend was born.

Few people remember that the injury to Emerson – while playing goalie during practice – sent tremors through the Brazilian camp four years ago. Gilberto Silva was the beneficiary and earned himself a move to the Premiership based on some great performances.

Of course, sometimes the injuries are just too much to overcome. Think about the 1994 Final with Baggio on the limp and Baresi struggling badly. However, World Cup history has shown that often a very dark cloud has a silver lining. Who will step forward this time?

2 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Injuries, Wayne Rooney, Steven Gerrard, Gennaro Gattuso, Andreas Isaksson, Ronaldo, Djibril Cisse, Pele, Amarildo, Garrincha, Jimmy Greaves, Michael Owen, Geoff Hurst, Alf Ramsay, England, West Germany, Emerson, Gilberto Silva, Baggio, Baresi
 
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ABOUT ME


BobbyMcMahon
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites. Thank you to all who take time to visit this blog and especially to those of you who post your comments and thoughts. PS - If you have questions please post them on the regular Monday blog. I am unable to answer e mails posted to the inbox on this site. And one more thing. If you have questions or complaints or compliments about programming please contact Fox Soccer Channel or Fox Sports World Canada directly. I have no control over what the stations televise.
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