The Times feature on Fulham’s away form. St. James’ Park is about the only ground Fulham doesn’t mind traveling to. They have a split record of 2 wins, draws and losses in the Premiership and their two wins and one of the draws have come on their last three visits. Conversely Newcastle’s last win in the Premiership came over three months ago and it needed a late penalty kick to give Newcastle a 1-0 win over who else but Fulham.
Premiership This weekend’s Premiership fixture list has ten matches all of which have the potential to substantially change the race for the title, the scramble for Champions League/UEFA Cup spots, or the battle to avoid the dreaded drop.
There are numerous possibilities and of course one of which is that nothing very much will change. Even so it’s interesting to take a look at the various views of how things will work out with eight rounds of play to go.
The conventional wisdom in the media and on the chatboards seems to be that with a three point lead and a substantially better goal difference the league title is for Manchester United to lose. Arsenal’s four consecutive draws has put a dagger through the heart of their title aspirations while Chelsea could yet to slip in to win the Championship for the third time in four seasons.
Liverpool are the form team (and the team to fear in the Champions League) and will lock up the fourth Champions League spot. That will leave Everton with fifth and what may be the last remaining UEFA Cup place for next season. Aston Villa, Portsmouth (still have a very real interest in the FA Cup), Manchester City and Blackburn will be left on the outside looking in.
BBC pundit Alan Hansen seems to support the conventional view as far as the top four are concerned. Hansen states “if United beat Liverpool and Arsenal lose at Chelsea, Wenger can wave the title bye-bye in my opinion”. Early on in the article he says, “…..while Arsenal go to Stamford Bridge to play a Chelsea side who cannot yet be discounted when it comes to the title.”
When you consider that going into this weekend Arsenal trails United by three points and in turn leads Chelsea by two points then should United and Chelsea win then the gap between first and second will become five points with Arsenal a further point behind. However, that single point would seem to be enough for Hansen to dismiss Arsenal’s chances (whle five points is not too much for Chelsea to make up) even though Manchester United have to still play the Gunners and have to travel to Stamford Bridge.
At the other end of the Premiership Wigan’s current run of form finds them on 31 points along with Boro. Although both teams still fall within the group still under threat of relegation these two teams haven’t featured in too many relegation picks lately. The subject of Newcastle is polarizing with fans and pundits clearly falling quickly into the “stay-up” or “relegated” camps – no indecision on that one.
Depending on how you feel about Newcastle they either join the group of Reading, Birmingham, Sunderland, Bolton and Fulham that are trying to avoid the two other relegations spots or not. Bolton’s chances of safety are often dismissed based on a supposedly tougher schedule while in North America Fulham seem to a lot of peoples pick for a “miracle” run to seventeenth spot or even higher. Perhaps a case of heart dominating the brain.
So if that is a recap of the conventional wisdom what are the UK bookies saying? As bookies odd are set based on money bet it should align closely with punters current opinion. At the wrong end of the league the bookies are no longer taking bets on Derby’s fate while not giving Fulham (2/5) much of a chance of survival and they reckon Bolton (5/6) are going to join them.
If either of these two teams does turn their “fate” around then Sunderland are the next pick to go down (2/1), with Reading and Birmingham (7/2) coming next. Jeremy St. Louis could make some money by choosing Newcastle at 4/1. Wigan (8/1) and Boro at 12/1 are definite outsiders.
At the other end the bookies are saying that the finish will be Manchester United 1/3, Arsenal 4/1, Chelsea 5/1 and Liverpool 120/1 with a United, Arsenal and Chelsea the favoured 1-2-3 finish. Before the midweek draw with Tottenham Chelsea were the bookies favourite to finish as runners-up.
Around Europe There are some great games around the rest of Europe as well. In Italy the two stand out games are Fiorentina vs. Lazio and the derby that isn’t a derby, Inter against Juventus. Spain has Sevilla against Atletico Madrid and if the game is half as interesting as their first match-up this season (a 4-3 win for Atletico) then it should be worth catching.
Meanwhile, Real Madrid probably can’t believe that after dropping nine points in their last five matches that they still lead second place Barcelona by seven points. For all the ups-and-downs we have seen in La Liga this season the fact is that since Real left the Nou Camp with a 1-0 win two days before Christmas the top three teams (Real Madrid, Barcelona and Villarreal) have all collected twenty-one points from a possible thirty-nine. This weekend Valencia provides the opposition for Real and will be buoyed after beating Barcelona in Thursday’s Copa del Rey semi-final.
The Bundesliga has a top versus third match-up with Bayern Munich facing a surging Bayer Leverkusen. Bayern remains unbeaten at home although their points total is reflective of five draws in eleven home games. On the other hand Leverkusen have not won at Bayern in 19 years, and have only won twice in twenty-eight visits.
I will be on World Soccer Daily at around 1:15 p.m. EST tomorrow (Friday).
A great
article on two footballing generations of the McGeady family and a wee bit
more.
A loss to
Inter forty years ago still rankles Liverpool.
Here is a look at the last sixteen of the Champions League and who might make up the last eight.
Schalke vs. Porto Porto may have lost a couple of games in Portugal over the last two months but they should have enough to qualify against a Schalke side that made it through from a group that turned out to be very poor. Pick Porto.
Roma vs. Real Madrid I’m picking this one as my surprise of the round. Real has racked up good results this season without being consistently impressive. Roma has a poor record against Real Madrid but they have enough talent to beat the Spanish Champions. Out on a limb on this one. Pick Roma
Olympiacos vs. Chelsea If the Greek side is to have a chance at all then they need to win the first leg. Although two or their three wins in the group stage were away from home the first win (at Werder Bremen) was Olympiacos’ first in 32 attempts. The side is strong on experience but may not be strong enough defensively to win over two legs. Pick Chelsea
Liverpool vs. Inter With a FA Cup defeat and a poor league showing hanging over them this is Liverpool’s last chance for silverware this season. The Champions League and the former European Cup has more meaning to Liverpool than most other clubs but they are facing a side that it out to prove that they can be considered amongst Europe’s best. In three of the last four times Inter has made it to the knock out stage they have lost on away goals. Inter was my choice back in August to take Europe's premier title but it was a choice that was made with little conviction. Pick Inter Celtic vs. Barcelona Barcelona is the only side to win in European competition at Parkhead in the last seventeen matches. By the same token Celtic’s away form in Europe continues to be atrocious. A Celtic win in the first leg is very much a possibility but a visit to the Nou Camp will prove to be too much. Pick Barcelona (They will be happy that Dundee United did not qualify)
Lyon vs. Manchester United A side with the likes of Karim Benzema in it should not be written off but Lyon’s best chance of European glory may have come and gone. United’s movement in midfield and attack will be more than the French Champion’s defense will be able to cope with. Pick Manchester United
Fenerbahce vs. Sevilla Sevilla is finally beginning to generate some real momentum in La Liga after the traumatic experience of the collapse and death of full back Antonio Puerta in September. This is a side that has the benefit of two successful UEFA Cup runs, an outstanding striker pairing of Luis Fabiano and Freddie Kanoute, wide players with real pace and dash (Navas and Capel) as well as quality in almost every other area. Fenerbahce will prove to be a stiff test but Sevilla might be the team that surprises us all this season in the Champions League. Pick Sevilla
Arsenal vs. Milan Arsenal’s youth vs. Milan’s experience – that is how articles in newspapers and on the web are bill-boarding this one although I am not sure that is a totally fair reflection. I’ve flipped back and forward between the teams on this one since the draw was made and would not be surprised if Arsenal win's it. However….. Pick Milan
Here is a link to Jeremy's blog that describes his trip to Barcelona.
Thierry_Henry - From your point of view, do you think Setanta Sport which charges $15/m in Canada will have any success? I think the Premier League might be squeezing its loyal subscribers out. I don't think there are many people in Canada who are soccer crazy enough to pay that kind of money.
If it was hockey, yes. but soccer... I doubt. It's only the die hard or professional analysts like you who will pay for it. I had a few friends from Africa who used to wake up every morning to watch the EPL, but now they don't really bother...btw 300,000 subscribers in china on pay tv. wow. that is not even enough. how much do they pay per month? $15?
Bobby – It is interesting question especially given the news this week that Setantamay be sold. First of all I have been surprised how many people that I come across who I would have expected to subscribe to Setanta but have not.
Their reasons are diverse but price is an obvious issue and a lot are quite happy with a couple of game each weekend on Sportsnet and The Score. The market for seven or eight games a weekend is very limited. I don’t know the Setanta subscription numbers in Canada but I would be very surprised if it was in excess of 30,000.
Admittedly at $15 a month that is a fair chunk of revenue but that is not what the company would pocket. It is probably more like $8 or $9 a month after paying money to the cable and satellite delivery systems. The bad news for fans is that I would reckon that $15 a month is the thin edge of the wedge.
Whoever buys Setanta (and they will certainly be sold) will be faced with actually having to make a profit. The only way to do that is either cut costs, increase prices or increase audience. Guess which is the easiest?
Setanta has been happy to rack up losses while acquiring programming assets and offering discounted subscription fees particularly in the UK. The company line is that Setanta will break even this year or next but there are some legitimate doubts that this might actually happen.
The larger problem is that Setanta has forced programming costs up in the markets where they compete and have in turn fueled the expectation that these markets will generate ever higher rights fees.
If they are not sold and turned profitable in a year or so, a loss making Setanta will be back at the table and having to pay even more for the Premiership.
From the weekly viewing figures I have seen Setanta Canada has not served to increase the viewing figures for the Premiership in Canada.
Last season audiences of 90,000 plus were very normal for Sportsnet Saturday morning games. Just two weekends ago the audience for the Saturday and Sunday games did not exceed 65,000. Sportsnet garnered 104,000 for that horrible Everton-Reading game on Saturday which was a very decent number but Chelsea vs. Liverpool only attracted 77,000.
The news last week that the Score was cutting back on their soccer coverage that had only been beefed up in August to support their one game each week is probably another sign that the Premiership although popular is still a niche market. .
Ringo - Do you know of any viewing figures for FSC/FSWC?
Bobby – Neither channel subscribe to ratings and so I don’t know if there are any reliable numbers out there. I’m guessing that FSWC is probably around 750,000 subscribers in Canada while I believe that FSC in the US is around 30m.
However, there is always going to be a large discrepancy between subscribers and regular viewership.
Craigy_f - Did you watch the Udinese V Juventus game? Did it live up to your billing? Did any other game surpass it?
Bobby – I did not watch it . It wasn’t televised in Canada. I watched Inter-Catania, Roma-Reggina and a good portion of Milan-Siena. None of them very inspiring.
Redfan2000 - What's your opinion on Inter Milan? Can Rafa's redmen overcome the blue of Milan do you think? Who is your favourite for this year's Champions League and UEFA Cups?
If you were Rafa where would you strengthen?
Bobby – I picked Inter to win the CL at the start of the season but it was not a choice made with any great confidence. I think the glass jaw might come into it. Certainly Liverpool can beat Inter but if I had to pick this one I would stick with Inter.
Out of the last 32 I don’t think I could name 20 of the teams left in the UEFA Cup without checking uefa.com. I will have a look when it gets down to the last 8.
As for strengthening Liverpool? Definitely on the flanks – both fullbacks and two wide players. I know a lot of fans want Babel through the middle and it is probably his best spot. His crossing is not good enough. Harry Kewell – I think it is time to cut bait. Jermaine Pennant – not good enough. Yossi Benayoun – gets a pass mark but looks more comfortable coming infield rather than staying wide.
As for the centre of midfield I would say the question (as long as Rafa is around) has changed from who plays with Gerrard to who plays with Mascherano. I thought that Mascherano on Sunday against Chelsea was the only player worth watching.
Neophyte -Did you see the Barcelona v. Sevilla match? La Liga still captures my respect. I love the style and pace I see there. Did you happen to see Capel? I believe he is only 19 yrs. old. He looked incredible. I have seen quite a youth movement in Spain more so than any other league (except maybe Holland). Am I correct or are there just as many U-20's in the Premiership that I'm just not aware of?
Bobby – I did see that game. Capel played well for Spain at the under-20s last summer and I am pretty confident in saying that he played at Emirates against Arsenal earlier this season in the Champions League. T
here are not too many under-20 players in the Premiership. If you take a look at the England under-21 and under-19 squads you will see very few names that are recognizable.
Djnima - Do you think Schuster deserves the credit for Real Madrid's success?
Bobby – Did I miss something? I didn’t realize that Real Madrid had won a trophy this season under Bernd Schuster. I didn’t realize that success for Real Madrid was now defined by leading the league, getting to the knock out round of the Champions League and getting knock out of the Copa del Rey.
A bit too early for assigning credit I think.
Davard - Last week you posted an interesting article by a journalist regarding playing into his late 30's in a recreational capacity, and the subsequent physical toll.
Since I have seen you post about still playing the game today, I am curious what your experience has been relating to your overall fitness and football abilities, and overall knowledge/instincts as you transitioned from 20's, to 30's, 40's and onward.
Being in my 30's, and still loving playing the game, just curious to see what I have to look forward to. :)
Bobby – I guess I would sum it up with “I wish I knew then what I know now.” I was taught that running – and particularly up and down sand dunes during pre season – got you fit and maintained it.
Looking back on it that sort of training may have worked when you were 17-22 but at a certain point it makes you very one paced – especially if you did not have a lot of quickness to begin with.
I have learned over the last couple of seasons how important the core of your body is and how it contributes to fitness and balance. Working with weights has made a ton of difference to me as well as working on flexibility - although I still have Scottish hamstrings!!
There was point around four years ago that I would pull a hamstring bending over to tie a shoe lace. Fifty year old+ hamstrings are always going to be problematic but I have experienced a significant improvement since changing my fitness approach.
Overall I think I am in better physical shape than I was a decade ago and it comes down to having a better understanding of what helps you stay in shape and what doesn’t really work. There is no way I can turn up in April without preparing for it and expect not to get injured.
Back in the more serious playing days I could take October to December off but I came to the conclusion that I could not take any months off and I have to keep at it throughout the year. Over time your body will deteriorate but you definitely have a choice about how quickly it will happen. The good news is that you never stop learning and experience helps.
Craigy-F1. Would you attend a Premier League game in the US or Canada?
2. Do you always watch football with the same mindset?
3. Anyone in football you would refuse to interview?
4. Are you a left footer or a right footer?
5. What's the most trouble you've gone through to see a game?
Bobby –1. I doubt it very much. A choice between Birmingham and Wigan and DC United and Toronto FC – I would give my money to MLS.
2. I’m not sure what you mean by mindset. I watch a game hoping that I will be entertained and in some cases astonished at the ability of some players. However, my expectations do change depending on who is playing.
3. Never really thought about it.
4. Where I come from that is a religious question but I am assuming that is not what you mean. Right footed…very right footed although I have always been comfortable playing on the left side.
5. Three memories. Trying to find a game that was on during a cold snap in Scotland. Each game we decided to go to got postponed with two of them while we were on the road or actually outside the park.
The fifth choice was a junior game that we finally got to with half an hour played.
Second memory – having to go to bed very early on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday nights in order to be allowed to go with my Dad to see Dundee in the European Cup on Wednesdays. For a seven year old that is tough bargain especially because no one at school believed me about getting to go the matches.
The last one involved an incredible amount of weaseling, trading and logistics in order to get to Athens, Georgia to see the 1996 Olympic Final between Nigeria and Argentina. I was working at the Olympics in Atlanta and needed to rearrange a work schedule, get a ticket and arrange a ride to and from Athens.
The only way to get to Athens was with someone who wanted to see the Gymnastics final (?) and had to be in Athens at something like 8:00 a.m. in the morning. He game was not until 3:45 p.m.
It all worked out in the end but there are people who still think I was crazy for passing up on the Mens 4X100 metre final the same day.
But Nigeria won 3-2, the game was a classic and it turned out to be a fantastic day.
Oranjespur 1- What I'm getting at is no team seriously wanting to contend for titles and cups can afford to accommodate a CB that can only play once every 3 games. I'm sure you could give examples but I just don't understand why Tottenham took so long on this issue to find a solid (um er Woodgates health record solid? hmmm) replacement for King.
2- What do you make of Hoddle's Academy setting base in Spain? It seems to me that the FA should try something similar and base it in England. I think Hoddle is on to something here and although the EPL may not see direct benefits from it but the Championship and SPL could.
3- What do you make of Sir Alex finding time to flyout right after the game to South Africa this weekend especially after all the noise he was making about EPL not respecting the 50th anniversary of the crash?
Bobby –1. I guess they thought they had got a temp replacement when they signed Rocha and then again when Kaboul last summer.
2. The FA has had trouble getting an academy for great young players going so I would not hold out hope that they could plan two. I’m guessing that the idea of going to Spain is mostly due to a better climate for outdoor practice.
3. Astounded that something like that would be planned mid season. Another sign that money now trumps game preparation at Old Trafford perhaps?
Henry14 -Q1 Was the impact of the African Cup of nations as adverse as pundits anticipated in terms of points lost or gained during the period in the Prem?
Q 2 What do you think caused Man Utd to lose 5 points during last two games?
Q 3 What is your reaction to the theory that Ronaldo has a Henry disease, that is bottles in big pressure fixtures?
Q 4 What have you seen as a football expert to be Adebayor's improvement this season?
Bobby –1. I am sure that fans of specific teams will be able to points lost because of players that took part in the tournament but I am not sure that many others will be much attention to them.
2. Facing teams that were motivated, brave, well prepared and organized. The statistics would also show that United without Rooney this season are susceptible – missing for all four United league losses I believe.
3. I never bought into the Henry conventional wisdom. However, if Ronaldo hopes to be recognized as the best in the world then he is going to have to turn in performances that make the difference between winning major trophies and finishing second. Kaka has done it, now Ronaldo has to match it.
4. Not an expert, just a guy with a good memory and a few opinions. He looks like a player who enjoys pressure and the limelight without being overbearing or a diva. He is very willing to use his physique to a far greater extent than before and Wenger has shown great confidence in him.
Jeremy St Louis off on assignment to Barcelona and will hopefully be blogging while in Spain. He left this blog before he left.
And finally a group called the Canadian Soccer Federation has recently issued a plan that proposes to significantly change the way the game operates in Canada. After years of the Canadian Soccer Association issuing documents and promises but with little or nothing in the way of delivering on their good intentions the CSF overs up an alternative vision for a professionally run organization.
As well as an outline of their vision for the game the CSF has also gained access to a document prepared by Deloitte & Touche in 2005 that laid out an alternative form of governance for the CSA. The CSA never released this document to the soccer public. You can find and read the document at CSF website.
African Cup of Nations After going four-for-four in the quarter finals of the African Cup of Nations it was just too good to last and although both my semi final picks have made it through to a final game it has turned out to be for third place rather than the actual final.
Although Ghana enjoyed an edge in the play a lack of sharpness in the penalty box cost them a place in the final. Cameroon was bound to create and take a chance and sure enough it happened. Apart from the goal an outstanding moment was Geremi's 30+ yard free kick that hit the junction of the bar and the post - an absolute cracking shot.
I thought the Egyptian back four looked a bit perturbed by the physical play on Angola’s Manucho in the quarter finals and felt that Drogba would cause the defense nightmares. As it turned out the defense played exceptionally well and overall I thought the Egyptians were outstanding for ninety minutes.
They got a couple of breaks from deflections but even so they showed as a well drilled and composed side that were worth their 4-1 win. However, I would be amiss not to mention the rocket of a shot from Keita cutting in from the left that looked to have got the Ivory Coast back in the game.
After handling Cameroon in the group stage and then the semi final victory over the Ivory Coast, Egypt will start as favourites to take their 6th African Cup of Nations title. At the risk of hexing Egypt I will take them to win 2-1.
Serie A One of the best games in prospect in Serie A is Juventus at Udinese. Udinese have only one win in their last six games and are slipping down the table. On the other hand Juventus is unbeaten in their last twelve games but six draws in the run means that although they remain in third position their points total has suffered.
When compared to Inter and Roma Juventus have slipped behind by 8 points and 3 points respectively. If history is a pointer then this game is good news for Juventus. Juventus has only lost three times in 33 visits.
Bundesliga The Bundesliga may have only been back for one week but the second round of the second half has a thrown up a top of the table clash between leaders Bayern Munich and Werder Bremen. Werder went into the winter break tied on points with Bayern but an unexpected loss to Bochum last week (the first Bochum win at Bremen in 31 tries) means they trail the Munich side by three points.
Bayern defensive home record is impressive with only two goals conceded in eight games. However, three draws means that their home points total does not necessarily reflect their defensive dominance.
On the other hand Werder Bremen’s away form has been poor with only 12 points from 8 games. Diego is Werder Bremen’s leading scorer with 9 to date and he is tied at the top of the Bundesliga scoring charts with Luca Toni and Miroslav Klose. Werder Bremen has also been buoyed by the return of Croatian international striker Ivan Klasnic after a second and this time successful kidney transplant.
La Liga The top game in Spain would appear to pit Sevilla against Barcelona. Sevilla is up to 7th position but is still making heavy weather of this season. As a precaution they also announced this week that they will take part in the Intertoto Cup if necessary in order to find a route to next season’s UEFA Cup.
Fabiano is having an outstanding season and has more than carried the goal scoring load so far this season with 16 goals to Freddie Kanoute’s 8. Previous to signing for Sevilla in 2005 Fabiano had been a bust at Rennes in France (2000) and then after returning to Brazil he signed for Porto in 2004. With a record of only 5 goals in 20 plus games he was not considered a success in Portugal. But since moving to Sevilla he has now made over 100 appearances and has scored around a goal every two matches.
Barcelona, on the other hand, has spread their scoring around with 13 different players contributing at least a goal so far this season.
Premiership What are the chances of getting through the minute of silence at Old Trafford without a Neanderthal contributing to the occasion? Not very good I am guessing. City has not had much success at Old Trafford and you have to go back to 1974 for their last league win.
It was the game decided by Denis Law’s back heeler with only a couple of minutes left. United fans then invaded the field, the game was abandoned, the result stood and six years after winning the European Cup Manchester United was relegated. Law’s goal is often described as one that relegated United but the fact is that United would have gone down anyway.
Although City is winless in 34 years and obviously without a win in ten Premiership visits they have drawn four times when visiting Old Trafford on Premiership business. City’s form has dropped off and when you look at the points they have garnered in blocks of five games it becomes quite clear - (from start of season) 9 pts, 13 pts, 8 pts, 6 pts, 5 pts.
Chelsea is hoping to extend their unbeaten home record and based on Liverpool’s record over the last number of years at Stamford Bridge it is a record that looks like being extended. Liverpool has been blanked on their last seven visits to Stamford Bridge and has only scored two goals in the last 12 visits in all competitions.
The only current Liverpool player to have scored at Stamford Bridge is Sammi Hyypia and Liverpool has only one win in 14 Premierships trips to Stamford Bridge. Over the last six league games Chelsea has picked up 16 points (best in the Premiership) against Liverpool’s record of four draws combined with a loss and a win – only good for 12th in the current form table.
So you have Chelsea riding the crest of a wave in terms of their recent premiership form against a team that they have largely owned in Premiership meetings at Stamford Bridge. Looks like a banker home win but this might just be the match that brings Chelsea’s unbeaten home run to an end.
First of all, a big thanks to the staff and management of the Galway Hooker Bar in Manhattan. Last Thursday they hosted the Fox Soccer Channel 10th anniversary east coast reception and did a fine job of it.
Celtic issues a warning to players who might be thinking of invoking FIFA’s article 17.
A small piece on Freddie Adu at Benfica and the impact that Coach Jose Antonio Camacho may have on the youngster’s development. Although Camacho was not in charge when Adu signed the signs are that he is willing to work with him.
Gabriele Marcotti assesses the threat posed by Inter Milan in the Champions League.
Glenn Gibbons puts some perspective to the issue of a “British” team in the 2012 Olympic soccer tournament. The one thing he does not mention is the timing of the event which is only a few weeks after Euro 2012.
The article quotes Berlusconi from 20 years ago. However, Sports Illustrated ran a series on the future of sport in the late seventies. SI suggested that the future of sport was TV money and that spectators would be allowed in free to create atmosphere. No matter this article lays out what is in store for spors fans over the next few years as far as televised sport and the prices that will have to be paid.
It sounds as if the Premiership has taken the exaggerated claims of the Super Bowl, the IOC and FIFA to heart and see no harm in announcing potential viewership numbers that have no link to reality.
It is generally accepted amongst sober folks that the Champions League Final draws around 70 – 100m people worldwide. An opening ceremony for an Olympics of one sort of another would attract 125-150M around the globe. The World Cup Final around 200M+ and the Super Bowl would be around 115M worldwide. These numbers cover people who actually watch as opposed to those popping in for thirty seconds.
If Saturday’s game attracted an audience of 5M in the UK (it was only available on Sky) it would be an unheard level for a league game. So, even if we say 5M watched in the UK that is only one in 12 people - based on a population of 60M.
The world’s population is around 6B and you can knock off 10% or so for babies and the infirmed. You would have to further reduce the number of potential viewers due to the number of people that live without electricity and such. That has to be another one billion + you would think.
What you are left with is a little over 4B people. And so we are supposed to believe that although a maximum of 1 in 12 people watched in the UK (and that is extremely generous) that around the world 1 in 4 tuned in. Take North America where the game was only available on Setanta. In Canada, with a population of around 30M, there are not 100,000 Setanta subscribers. In the USA with 300M how many people had access to the Setanta signal let alone watched?
The claim is ridiculous. If the game was “watched” by 40M around the world I would be surprised.
The USSF makes an interesting selection to lead the under-17 program.
And before we move on I think the comments from the UK’s minister of sport Gerry Sutcliffe are worth addressing. Sutcliffe picked on John Terry’s reported salary, as well as losses run up by Chelsea. He might have done his case more good if he had got his numbers right but even so picking on an individual is out of line and so are his general comments.
Sutcliffe’s comment included "people in the street cannot understand salaries like that.” That might be the case but the same people in the street aren’t likely to understand the kind of money made by entertainers and movie stars or any other highly paid individual.
It’s called the free market and John Terry and other players are entitled to be compared to other stars because that is what they are. They provide millions of people with enjoyment (and stuff to write and comment on!!) every week and any nostalgic longing for the good old days before money ruined the game is beyond nostalgia and is in fact delusional.
Over a century ago the first player was paid to play the game and from that point on it was about money. Before the abolition of the maximum wage in England the money flowed from the spectators to the owners with a relatively small portion finding a way to the players.
At least now players are paid commensurate with the revenue they generate – they are the product, they are who we pay to see. And let us not forget that “we,” as the fans, are complicit in the whole scheme. If we didn’t pay to see a game – either live on the box - or buy merchandise, there would be no money to pay the salaries.
The weekend game previews will be considerable shorter as I will be spending much of Thursday and Friday on airplanes. But here is something to chew over with over a quarter of the Premiership season already in the books.
One of things that I look at regularly is how a team is doing compared to previous years and, more often than not, the season before. The simple approach is to look at the number of games played; the points gained and compare the number to the same point in the season before.
Using that criteria and applying it to the top five finishers from last season the gainers so far are Arsenal (+8) and Liverpool (+6) while Manchester United (-2), Chelsea (-4) and Tottenham Hotspur (-8) have all lost ground. If you are attempting to project these numbers to a league finish in May you have to consider the final league points from 2006/07.
Manchester United 89
Chelsea 83
Liverpool 68
Arsenal 68
Spurs 60
In order to catch Manchester United this season Chelsea would have to gain or United would have to lose 6 points this season. For Liverpool and Arsenal the magic number was 21 points and for Tottenham 29 points.
If you assume from here on the teams would generate the same record this season as they did last season then the league table for the five teams would look like this.
Manchester United 87
Chelsea 79
Arsenal 76
Liverpool 74
Spurs 52
Chelsea’s magic number has grown from 6 points to 8, while Arsenal’s gap is now 14 where it was 21 points at the start of the season. Liverpool’s gap has also closed considerably dropping from 21 to 13 points. In the case of Spurs the gap is now an unachievable 35 points up from 29 points.
However, there is perhaps a more interesting way to compare season to season records. And that is to contrast the records last season to this one against the same opposition.
Because of relegation and promotion you have to make an assumption about the teams that dropped a division and those that came up. For the purposes of this example Sunderland = Sheffield United, Birmingham City = Charlton Athletic and Derby County = Watford.
When you consider this scenario only Spurs are actually doing worse than last season having dropped 2 points over last season. Manchester United and Chelsea are exactly even, Liverpool have picked up 2 points and Arsenal leads the pack having gained 6 points on last season.
Projected to seasons end and assuming no change to last season’s head2head records for the remaining games the positions come out looking like this.
Manchester United 89
Chelsea 83
Arsenal 74
Liverpool 71
Spurs 58
What this ishows is that despite Liverpool and Arsenal making early gains it is still a long road to catch United and Chelsea – even though it doesn’t appear that way when looking at the present table.
Of course you have to consider that given United and Chelsea’s records last season there is more down side than up. However, one area available to Manchester United are the two games against Arsenal – they lost both last season. And of course on Saturday they meet for the first time this season.
Others games that stand out this weekend include Blackburn at home to Liverpool. Don’t expect many goals in this one – we’ve only seen five in Liverpool’s last five visits to Ewood Park. In MLS to second leg of the first round of play offs continue with all three games evenly balanced. We can expect more goals than in the first leg - as we saw on Thursday evening between the Fire and DC United.
Italy has the Italian derby with Juventus against Inter. In Spain Sevilla “welcomes” Liga champions Real Madrid while Atletico Madrid versus Villarreal looks to be an intriguing match.
Scotland may be sitting top of their group in Euro qualifying but there is an anthem problem.
Paul Wilson asks the question that if Manchester United fans have to buy tickets to Carling Cup games then shouldn’t United field a top class team. Buried in the piece Wilson also takes to task people who quote Bill Shankly’s “matter of life and death” comment. Wilson’s right – the vast majority of people quote Shankly as if he was serious which he clearly was not.
My favourite Shankly quote was from the late Emlyn Hughes. Hughes told a story that Shanks loved training and joined in all the time. One day Shankly turned round to Hughes and says to him "When I die I want to be the fittest man to ever die."
An interesting and informative website created by a regular blog visitor www.billsportsmaps.com Something obviously close to his heart. Check it out.
I received an e mail last week taking me to task. Apparently I have yet to publish my Champions league picks. So here goes – Group A, Liverpool and Porto; Group B, Valencia and Chelsea; Group C, Real Madrid and Werder Bremen (would not be surprised if Lazio qualified); Group D, Milan and Benfica; Group E Barcelona and Rangers (bring on the “are you on crack McMahon” e mails); Group F, Manchester United and Roma; Group G, Inter Milan and PSV; Group H, Arsenal and Sevilla.
Just a reminder that if you have questions you would like my take on, then the best idea is to post them on Monday’s Speakers’ Corner Blog. If they are posted any other time then there is a very good chance that I will miss them. I try my best to keep up but sometimes questions slip through the cracks.
And finally Winnipeg Thistle lost their Winnipeg Old Timers crown after losing 2-1 to Portuguese in the final on Sunday. A lack of polish in front of goal cost us dearly. It was a great game and I am glad to say that I am at the stage in life that I prefer to play in a good game and lose, than play in a bad one and win. To all the players and officials that make it possible for old guys like me to continue to kick a ball and love it a massive THANK YOU.
Paul Doyle lists six outstanding goalkeeping displays.
Carlos Bilardo is not impressed with the quality of the play or the tactics in the Premiership. There again England has never been in love with the doctor.
Last weekend while Arsenal were putting five goals past Derby County, Liverpool were forced to settle for a scoreless draw with their Premiership bogey team Birmingham. This weekend Arsenal faces what could be considered their bete noire – West Ham United. As well as beating Manchester United twice last season, the Hammers also did the double over Arsenal – and didn’t concede a goal in the four games. A fantastic accomplishment for a team that only avoided the drop on the last day of the season.
In fact West Ham are looking for a fourth straight Premiership win over the Gunners having won 3-2 on their final trip to Highbury in February 2006. The other game that season between these two London rivals was a scoreless draw so Arsenal fans’ memories need to stretch back to January 2003 for the last time their favourites took three points off of West Ham.
Back then Thierry Henry notched a hat trick. Last weekend a hat trick from Emmanuel Adebayor claimed the first hat trick to be scored at Emirates Stadium and took his season tally to six in the Premiership. Arsenal will be hoping that the Togo international can strike again given that the Gunners have never lost in the 18 games in which Adebayor has scored.
While West Ham’s summer signing of Craig Bellamy (the only British player to have been transferred for $10M or more on five occasions – good or bad, discuss) has been the usual centre of attention it could be argued that the return of a fit Dean Ashton will prove to be of greater value to the Hammers. The now bottle-blonde Ashton (trying to become the first footballer to improve his game after dyeing his hair!) has scored in the last two Premiership games as well as scoring a very late winner in the Carling Cup in midweek.
A continuation of the scoring streak and Steve McClaren will find it difficult not to pick the former Norwich and Crewe striker for vital European Championship qualifying games in October. Three former Arsenal players will be in the West Ham squad - goalkeeper Richard Wright, Matthew Upson and Freddie Ljungberg. Former Charlton, Chelsea and Newcastle midfielder Scott Parker may finally make his Premiership debut for the Hammers.
Liverpool’s improvement away from home can be gauged by comparing their record on the road this season with their visit to Wigan last December. Liverpool thumped Wigan 4-0 but that was their first away win of the season and it came at the eighth time of trying. It also took their goals scored away from Anfield to five after being shut-out for 6 straight away games.
This season Liverpool have already won two away games, drawn the other and they have still let in a goal from open play this season. Since Wigan arrived in the Premiership Liverpool hold a perfect Premier League record with four wins from four matches, 10 goals scored and none against.
After leaving Fernando Torres out of the starting line up for the last two games (don’t mention rotation to Liverpool fans, I did once but I think I got away with it!) and then being held scoreless it is hard to see how Rafa Benitez cannot start the Spaniard on Saturday.
As for Wigan there is a sense that after two wins in their first three games their record of two losses and two draws in the last four games is a fairer reflection of their overall quality. However, Wigan are a team that manages to get on the scoreboard – albeit in the second half. They have only been shut out once this season but seven of their eights goals have come after a cup of tea and a pep talk.
Chelsea might have cruised to an easy midweek win over Hull City in the Carling Cup but the first priority has to be to stop the Premiership bleeding that has seen the Blues drop to their lowest league position in five seasons. Chelsea have only three wins in last 12 Prem games stretching back to last season and are currently without a goal in 329 minutes – their longest streak in nearly a decade.
We are so used to hearing that the first goal is so important in a game – and it is – but it has been a curse in Fulham games this season. The side scoring first in a Fulham league game this season has yet to win and on five occasions it has been the Cottagers. Conversely Chelsea has gone behind five times but still recovered to pick up seven points.
The dilemma for Avram Grant is how to come good on his commitment of playing attractive football when the platform for success comes from a strong defense – something that Chelsea has failed to deliver on this season. In seven games this season Chelsea has conceded 8 goals. That’s not a lot for a normal team but in the first 7 games last season they recorded 4 goals against and 4 shut outs - the season before it was 1 goal and 6 shut outs.
This weekend in MLS we may have a preview of a first round play off game in store. If the Chicago Fire can maintain a hold on 5th in the east and stay ahead of the western conference Colorado Rapids then there is a very good chance that they will “cross-over” and run into Chivas come the play-offs.
Chivas are now guaranteed place in the final eight and are also unbeaten in their last eight games. Their next challenge is to catch DC United in the race for the Supporters’ Shield. They are three points behind but with a game still in hand.
Chivas’ home record has been outstanding so far with ten wins and no losses in 12 games and they have only trailed at home in one game this season – 2-0 to DC United but still rebounded to share the points. Ante Razov has been hot with 6 goals in the last 4 games but the Fire will be confident of dousing his streak.
Ten of Chicago’s 14 away points have come in the last 6 games; the other 7 away games only generated 4 points. What’s more Chicago are also unbeaten in their last four games although three have been drawn. All things considered an excellent game in prospect.
In the Bundesliga it is the team currently sitting second – Bayer Leverkusen – trying to ensure that the four point gap on league leaders Bayern Munich does not grow larger this weekend. It also brings together the Bundesliga’s leading scorers from the last two seasons.
Miroslav Klose notched 24 goals two seasons ago for Werder Bremen but signed for Bayern Munich this summer. Around the same time the 2007 top marksman Theofanis Gekas moved from Bochum to Bayer Leverkusen. While most of the soccer world knows of Klose, Gekas is also a man with a nose for goals. He was the top scorer in Greece in 2005 and the runner up the following year before moving on loan to Bochum. He almost single handedly kept Bochum in the top flight while finishing as the Bundesliga’s top marksman in the 2006/07 season. This past summer a complex three deal that also involved Panathinaikos saw him land at Bayer Leverkusen.
So far this season Klose has got the jump on his Greek rival outscoring him 8 goals to 3. However, if Klose is to add to his total then he will have to do something that has not been done so far this season – score against Bayer at home. There again Bayern has averaged three goals a game away from home this season and this fixture has delivered 17 goals the last three times these sides have clashed in Leverkusen. I’m willing to bet that Bayer’s shut out streak is about to end.
Roma started a tough run of games last weekend with a draw against Juventus after leading 2-1 at half time. In midweek there was a reprise against Fiorentina. These two results combined with an Inter draw at Livorno and a win against Sampdoria means that Roma and Inter are now tied at the top of Serie A with 11 points from five games. Inter have not lost in their last five Serie A matches away to Roma although Roma can look back to a comprehensive Coppa Italia win last spring and a 1-0 Italian Super Cup win last month.
Totti was rested for Wednesday’s game but is almost certain to return for this table top clash. Totti was Europe’s leading marksman last season and has already scored 5 goals in his four games although he trails Zlatan Ibrahimovic of Inter who has two more – he’s tied at the top with David Trezeguet of Juventus.
After relinquishing their position at the top of the table for 24-hours to Villarreal (apparently their first time atop La Liga) Real Madrid leapfrogged three teams after beating Real Betis 2-0 on Thursday evening. Now manager Bernd Schuster returns to his old stomping ground where he will find his old charges in anything but fine fettle.
During his two years with Getafe, Schuster led them to consecutive ninth place league finishes and a Copa del Rey Final appearance last season.
His replacement Michael Ladrup – also a former Real Madrid and Barcelona player – has not got off to an au####ious start. Getafe is still winless after 5 games although they are undefeated at home with two draws. Getafe’s “success” during Schuster’s tenure – and his predecessor Quique Sánchez Flores - was very much built on performances at home. An illustration of that is the fact that Real Madrid has lost twice and drawn once at the Coliseum Alfonso Perez since Getafe were promoted for the 2004/05 season.
An extract from Sir Bobby Charlton’s latest autobiography. I still have one he wrote in 1964 called "My Soccer Life" so it will be interesting to contrast it with the book that is about to be published.
This piece is for the old timers. The last chapter of the 1964 book Charlton picked his best British eleven. The side he picked in the old 2-3-5 was - Bert Trautmann; Jimmy Armfield, Ray Wilson; Danny Blanchflower, Neil Franklin, Duncan Edwards; Stanley Matthews, Wilf Mannion, Tommy Taylor, Denis Law and Tom Finney.
I said on Monday that I would not post a seperate blog with responses but I could not keep out over the last two days so here it is in one shot.
Henry14 - Q1 Where do you think Man Utd. is getting all this money given their debt and, will this affect their spending in the next two seasons or so? Q2 How do you fit Tevez and Rooney in the same team? Q3 What is your take on Gallas’ comments and do you see him in an Arsenal shirt come August? Q4 Who do you think has made the best deals or gains in the transfer market and who are the losers so far?
Bobby – A1. It depends on how they budgeted within their business plan in terms of revenue from runs in the various competitions. I would have thought that the Glazer business plan was not predicated on winning the Premiership, making it to the FA Cup Final and reaching the semi final of the Champions League. You also have to appreciate the increase in TV money. Without knowing all these things know can say. A2. The last time I checked Tevez played for West Ham and Rooney for Manchester United. Has Rooney signed for West Ham? A3 – I don’t place too much weight on what a player says in an media interview. A4 – With over seven weeks left before the transfer window closes I would estimate that less than a third of the deals that will be done, have been done. Tagging winners and losers at this stage is like analyzing a marathon after five miles of a 26 mile race.
CIAO - Can you please shed some light on the situation that Inter and Milan are in. What are the investigations about? Is the investigation also the reason why neither of the Milan sides have been making moves in the transfer market? Is there a chance either team could be relegated to Serie B?
Bobby – The sporting sanctions were imposed last summer and as far as I understand they are final. What is going on just now is charges from a criminal investigation that may lead to a number of punishments – including jail time. I don’t see why the either of the Milan sides are delaying transfer moves. It has probably more to do with fact that the Spanish season has been over for less than a month plus many of the South American players are involved in the Copa America. There are seven weeks still to go – that is a long time.
ummufan - On the Brookings article-no mention of youth development in Italy or Spain-can you shed light on that? Also any thoughts on the US and whether we stick with ODP or encourage MLS teams to create academies or go another direction (outsource to Europe).
Bobby – The best book I have read that contrasts attitudes in Italy and England towards the game and in particular player development is “The Italian Job” by Gianluca Vialli and Gabriele Marcotti. I think the most critical element at play is that in England there is an underlying distrust of coaching and coaching as a profession. The idea that if you played the game at a high level you can teach the game still pervades in the media and with fans.
In terms of the route to follow in the US I don’t see it as one or another. There is a role to be played by every level from the grassroots up to the national team. The secret is – I think – is to make sure that everything is focused on developing the correct qualities and in turn that each segment knows and understands how they fir into the overall plan.
Ulsterson - Regarding the Brooking/Jackson article and with the understanding you have done some coaching, I was wondering if you had some suggestions on reference material for coaching youth teams. I and some other ageing players in my area are starting to "make the transition into management" that our knees, lungs, speed and waning reaction/recovery time have begun demanding of us. We feel this will be a fun way to give back to the sport while preparing us for our own future kids. Also, we need something to help the ego bruising (if one of these 24yr old punks calls me “sir” one more time . . . !!) march of age while waiting to reach renewed youth in the masters league!
While I feel more than confident (especially from the stool in my favorite watering hole, or on this blog!) in my expert armchair analysis and ability to guide, both technically and tactically, the top adult players and clubs in the world... ahem, cough... I have no idea how to go about passing on our vast and valuable knowledge to the youth. All advice on the subject is welcome, as four of us (with the usual act, then think mentality - hey, at least we still act young) have signed up to coach this fall.
Bobby – I have three books that I would recommend. (There are a lot more out there but these three are ones that I have read a few times.) The first one was published originally in 1969 and might be out of print. The version I have is from 1975 and is called “Soccer Coaching the Modern Way” by Eric Batty.
The other two are from the “Dutch School”. “The Coaching Philosophies of Louis van Gaal and the Ajax Coaches” by Henny Kormelink and Tjeu Seeverens published in 1997. The last one was published in 2001 “Teambuilding – the road to success” by Rinus Michels. Michels is more focused on senior sides.
When you are ready to jump in a coach a youth team I would recommend insisting on having some one appointed as manager to run the administrative and off field organizational side of it. The other recommendation is to develop your “philosophy” before you get involved. Are you there to help kids develop skills, win trophies, be better little people? It would great if these pieces were all linked but they rarely are.
