The best games this weekend are to be found in Italy.

SERIE A
AC Milan v Napoli

In midweek Milan edged ahead of rivals Inter for the first time in ages in Serie A while Napoli continued their fantastic start. A rather fortunate penalty allowed Milan to beat Siena and Milan have now rattled off six wins and a draw in their last seven league games.

The black clouds that were forming over the head of Carlo Ancelotti only a few weeks appear to have dissipated although with teams like Milan that enjoy/suffer (pick your own) such a high profile a “catastrophe” is often only a defeat or two away. They face Napoli this weekend with a number of injury worries and left-back Marek Jankulovski suspended.

These are great times for fans of Napoli as they revel in their best start in close to two decades. Only a few years ago Napoli was the basket case of Italian as escalating money problems and relegations combined to bankrupt the club.

Subsequently rescued by a movie mogul (Aurelio De Laurentiis) off-field and a previously unheralded coach (Edoardo "Edy" Reja) on-field Napoli returned to Serie A last year and made many friends with some exciting performances – especially at home.

Their shortcomings were away from home where they conceded at a rate of over two goals a game. Their strength so far this season continues to be on home soil although early indications – five goals against in four away games – are also positive as far as their road form is concerned.

Argentine target man German Denis signed from Independiente this past summer and in midweek he hit his first Serie A hat trick in a 3-0 win over Reggina.

Udinese v Genoa

Udinese sit top of the league courtesy of goal difference and are hoping to build on an impressive midweek performance that saw them travel to Catania and leave with all three points.

Prior to Wednesday’s match Catania was not only unbeaten at home but had not conceded a goal even. And what’s more it is not as if Catania’s home form is just a statistical blip that often shows up at the start of the season. Last season it was the Sicilian club’s home form that essentially saved them from relegation and more precisely a stingy defence.

Ironically the man that took Catania into Serie A and who helped to ensure their survival in the 2007 season was the man that has now led Udinese to the top of Serie A. Manager Pasquale Marino walked away from Catania at the end of that season only to sign on with Udinese in the summer of 2007.

His reputation is that of a manger who fields teams that are committed to attack although last season the Udinese goals for column (48) did not necessary reflect a side that more often than not played 4-3-3. Di Natale (17) and Quagliarella (12) carried the scoring load last season and have shared eight goals already this season. 

The team has also been helped by the emergence of midfielder Simone Pepe as a player of international quality. Pepe spent time on loan at Cagliari in the 2007 season before being recalled to Udinese. His form was recognized by Marcello Lippi who called him into the full Italy squad for the last round of World Cup qualifying matches.

An added bonus has been how quickly Alexis Sanchez has settled in at his new club. Udinese signed the Chilean two seasons ago but loaned him out and he spent last season with River Plate. He’s scored two goals in the last three games and is one of three Chilean youngsters currently at Udinese.

This weekend’s opposition is another team that has made an excellent start. Genoa trails the table toppers by four points although their Serie A position is a product of their home form. Five consecutive wins have generated fifteen of Genoa’s sixteen points with only one goal scored away from home. If Genoa can find some of their home form and take it with them to Udine then this could turn out to e a cracking game.

Juventus v Roma

A few wins for Juventus has eased the pressure on boss Claudio Ranieri but the same cannot be said for his opposite  number on Saturday Luciano Spalletti. Two goals from thirty-six year-old Pavel Nedved  gave Juve full points against struggling Bologna and moved them into a mid table position.

Torrential rain led to the abandonment of Roma’s match against fellow strugglers Sampdoria. Spalletti would have been hoping for a morale-boosting win on Wednesday before traveling to play a Juventus side that has won eight of the last nine head-to-head encounters.

Spalletti has been quoted this week as saying that the team is not listening to him and that cannot be a god sign for their boss or Roma in general. Roma have already had three men sent off in Serie A and have lost all four away games – three by 3-1 scores.

EPL
Tottenham v Liverpool

Tucked away in the exhilaration of Harry Rednapp’s arrival, a win over over Bolton and a last gasp fight back (or capitulation by Arsenal depending on your view) was an announcement by Spurs’ that a new 60,000 seat stadium would be built to replace White Hart lane.

Here’s hoping that Chairman Levy has learned something from his experience with his many management appointments over the last few years. It seems that with every new hire has come a different plan and focus with none of the plans seen through to logical conclusions.

If he goes about building a stadium the same way that he has gone about shaping the on field fortunes of Spurs he will finish up with four or more stadiums in various stages of completion and all abandoned for something shinier and more enticing.

Liverpool continued their winning ways against Harry Rednapp’s former team Portsmouth in midweek by scoring the only goal of the game. Liverpool and Villarreal go into this weekend as the only two teams in Europe currently undefeated in domestic league play and the Champions League. The Reds will be wary of a revitalized Spurs’ team currently operating on a high produced by NME – new manager euphoria. Some of the side effects are hallucinogenic, with fans, players and often pundits forgetting their actual league position and seeing only glory days ahead.

MLS
RSL vs. Chivas

After their last minute goal that grabbed a draw against the Rapids last week Real Salt Lake faces their first ever play-off game. The first leg is at the brand spanking new Rio Tinto Stadium and the position a team that ran out of steam last season after an impressive regular season.

Chivas have struggled with injuries all season and although the situation has improved as they enter the play-offs they still have some problems. It will be interesting to see if Chivas has learned from last season’s first round exit to Kansas City Wizards and how fresh some of the returning faces might be.

The goalkeeping situation has been a bit of a merry-g-round for the LA club after the departure of Brad Guzan for parts premiership. Dan Kennedy and Zack Thornton have split the duties but the experienced Thornton will start this one with Kennedy out through suspension. That means that both clubs will be starting two of the most experienced goalies in the league with Nick Rimando back stopping RSL.

KC vs. Columbus
The Crew will be hoping to avoid a play-off let down after a thoroughly impressive regular season that saw them cruise to the Supporters’ Shield. While Columbus sealed a play-off spot some time ago Kansas City went into the last round of regular season play with their fate still to be decided.

The Wizards put together a strong run over the last seven games and benefited from some excellent performances from the likes of Jimmy Conrad, Jack Jewsbury, Davy Arnaud and a recalled Claudio Lopez.

Amid all this summer’s transfer talk one of the few big money moves to actually happen has been the $20M+ transfer of Peter Crouch from Liverpool to FA Cup holders Portsmouth. Taken at face value the intent would seem to be to play Crouch in attack alongside former West Ham and Tottenham Hotspur striker Jermain Defoe.

The press has been quick to label the pair as a “little and large” combination. The little and large arrangement appeals to a number of sensibilities as it seems to match the best of two of the most common type forwards – the big fellow who is good in the air and the wee speedy striker with a nose for knock downs and an eye for a half chance.

But such combos appear to have fallen out of favour and instead many of the most successful Premiership scoring partnerships over the last few seasons have been made up of a striker and a midfielder - Van Nistelrooy and Scholes; Henry and Pires; Torres and Gerrard; Drogba and Lampard.

Nevertheless strike partnerships such as Quinn/Phillips (Sunderland), Heskey/Owen (Liverpool) and Dublin/Vassell (Aston Villa) have shown that a pairing of a big man and wee man along with the right supporting cast can sometimes deliver goals.

But when it comes down to ranking big and small pairings no combo has yet bettered the Kevin Keegan and John Toshack partnership from the Liverpool team of the seventies. Keegan and Toshack is still regarded as the consummate “little and large” strike partnership although as the years have gone by there has been a tendency to think only in terms of long balls pumped forward for the big strong Toshack to knock on for the speedy and nimble Keegan.

There was a lot more to the duo than balls thumped forward looking for Toshack to make contact. Keegan’s prodigious work rate and unselfish running created all sorts of problems for defenders who had become use to marking relatively static target men while Toshack was an intelligent reader of the game who was rarely given sufficient credit for his anticipation and touch.

Encouraging for Portsmouth fans is the fact that Peter Crouch’s only double figure scoring season in the Premiership (12 goals) was in 04/05 when he combined with “little” Kevin Phillips. It also marked Phillips last good Premiership season (10) although Southampton was relegated.

Both Crouch and Defoe have had trouble holding down regular staring spots at their previous clubs with over a third of their Premiership appearances coming as substitutes. Defoe has been the most productive scorer of the two and has also racked up 50% more Premiership appearances than Crouch despite being a year younger – 26 to Crouch’s 27.

Sixteen of Defoe’s 69 Premiership goals in 225 appearances have come off the bench and his 33 helpers reinforce his reputation as a striker who who is sometimes overly focused on his own exploits. Defoe’s best Premiership season for goals came in 2006/07 when he notched a dozen but he has finished two other seasons in double figures.

Crouch has 38 Premiership goals to his credit in 149 appearances although his 5 goals as a substitute seem to contradict the widely held opinion of him as a goalscoring “super-sub”.

In linking Crouch and Defoe Portsmouth boss Harry Rednapp is looking to improve Portsmouth’s goal output knowing that if his club is to improve further then more goals are necessary. In their five Premiership seasons Portsmouth’s scoring has ranged from a low of 37 (miracle escape year) to a high of 48 last season.

The best season return from a single player came from Yakubu with 13 in 04/05 and their two top goal scorers have never broken twenty between them in the five seasons - the best performance was in 2003/04 with Yakubu 11 and Sheringham 9.

Strangely that total was matched last season with Benjani collecting 12 goals and Defoe 8 but these two crossed transfer paths during the January transfer window and never did play together. For Harry Rednapp a change in preferred tactics may also be in order – especially at home.

Although last season Portsmouth finished a best ever 8th in the Premiership Pompey’s home form slipped and four single goal losses and eight draws at home meant a goal here and there might have meant a realistic challenge to fifth place Everton.

Rednapp’s favoured formation was the lone striker and although these tactics worked to Portsmouth’s advantage away from home it often backfired at home. Twenty-four goals in nineteen home games is far from prestigious but it becomes anemic when you consider that 17 goals came in only 4 games (against Reading, Birmingham, Bolton and Derby).

If Portsmouth is become a consistent top six finisher then not only do Crouch and Defoe have to become a dependable source for goals but Rednapp needs to make sure that more goals at one end are not negated at the other. Portsmouth need to find a way to service and support two strikers while keeping the midfield from being overrun and the defense from conceding more goals.

Mickey Thomas – a former FA Cup hero who went to jail for making big money.

A look out club signings by nationality.

Robert Philip manages to name check Mary Queen of Scots, Scotty from Star Trek, ####es, Bill Shankly and Sean Connery before getting to the point of his football article. You really just need to read his introduction.

 Another idea of how to generate stadium revenue. Sounds a bit bizarre but....

A Soccer America interview with USA national team boss Bob Bradley.

 The Independent lists the best players in the UK outside of the Premiership.

The Financial Times and Guardian articles on Manchester United record revenue and profits are the best I have read in terms of giving good information about the interest payments.

From the top to the near bottom - the reverse of Sir Alex Ferguson's journey. The Times with a positive story about East Stirlingshire - the team that offerred Ferguson his first job in hairdressing nearly thirty four years ago. 

 

With Newcastle United pulling the plug on another manager it is worth looking at the performance of the not-so-magnificent seven (although in relation to Keegan and Robson that remark should be tempered) during the Premiership years. Newcastle was not a charter member of the Premiership but after missing out on the first season Keegan secured promotion in his first full season.

Here are the managers, the position the club was in when they “left”, games in charge, average points gained and the approximate net outlay in transfer fees – it is a lot.

The list is in chronological order:

o Kevin Keegan – 4th, 143 games, 1.85 points, $80M

o Kenny Dalglish – 13th*, 56 games, 1.34 points, $27M

o Ruud Gullit – 19th, 41 games, 1.65 points, $13.6M

o Sir Bobby Robson – 17th, 188 games, 1.60 points, $58M

o Graeme Souness – 16th, 56 games, 1.16 points, $66M

o Glen Roeder – 13th, 52 games, 1.42 points, $19M

o Sam Allardyce – 11th, 21 games, 1.24 points, $28M

(Dalglish carries an asterisk as he was fired only two games into a season and 13th was the previous season’s finishing position.)

From Gullit on the managers are getting fired with the team sitting in ever higher positions. Maybe it is all part of some cunning plan to literally fire Newcastle to the top?

Looking back the failure to use the relatively successful spell under Bobby Robson to groom a successor was a faux pas of immense proportions. Who in their right mind would operate with one of their most important employees past the age 70 and with no succession plan in place?

As for Allardyce I don’t think any fair minded person would accept that half a season is enough time to turn a team that has failed to win a major domestic trophy in over half a century around.

A significant number of Newcastle fans are apparently upset at the type of football Allardyce had the team playing. But again if you are trying to change a culture of mediocrity then there is going to be protracted spell of rubbish dished up – that should not be a surprise. And in terms of a new manager it is likely to be more of the same.

I often wonder if a new manger might not get better results and reduce short term expectations if instead of asking for the cheque book he told players that they had half a season to prove themselves.

Immediately moving to sign new players and dumping the ones signed by the predecessor just leads to a belief that improvement will be immediate. Then if the new signings fail to impress – as they did in the Allardyce/Newcastle situation – the pressure mounts and the revolving door starts to rotate once more.

As for a successor, the names are beginning to appear in the press and on websites. Harry Rednapp, Mark Hughes, Steve McClaren (surely not!!) are all getting some play in the media. The odds are a Keegan return have also been slashed.

But as Simon Barnes said in The Times last weekend will a new manager be given a fair crack while Alan Shearer continues in the role of the best manager never to have managed Newcastle?

It would seem that Mike Ashley has done the easy bit in firing Big Sam, the hard bit is convincing someone of quality to pick up the poisoned chalice.

Quick free kicks

A number of teams are looking to cure some sporadic bouts of Premiership travel sickness this weekend. Spurs travels to Stamford Bridge in what could be a preview of the Carling Cup Final. But travelling to Stamford Bridge, Old Trafford, Anfield and wherever Arsenal were playing at the time, has not brought much joy to Spurs. In sixty-three Premiership trips to these grounds Spurs have won just twice - a win at Arsenal and a win at Liverpool.

Manchester City are the visitors to Goodison but they have only one once in ten Premiership visits to Goodison – and that was way back in October 1992.

Middlesbrough may not have scored against Liverpool in their last four Premiership encounters but Liverpool are without a win at the Riverside in their last five visits - two losses and three draws for the Reds. Despite Boro’s spotted form over the last couple of years the Riverside is still a place where bigger teams often come a cropper. United, Chelsea and Arsenal have all lost at the Riverside in the last two and a bit seasons

Oh and let us not forget that no matter who has been in charge of Newcastle a trip to Old Trafford as never ended in three points for the Magpies – it has however often finished with a loss (nine times) and sometimes a draw - five of them.

This weekend offers Reading, Wigan, and Fulham another opportunity to pick up three points away from home for the first time. This time against Aston Villa, Derby County and West Ham respectively. Also without an away win are Bolton, Sunderland, and Derby County but they will have to wait for another day.

LosAngelesChelseaFan - I can see why seeding wouldn't work. For logistics reasons alone the draw has to be made before the replays are resolved. I can remember when second replays occurred just days before the next round.

Bobby – And as someone else pointed out there is a form of seeding that goes on given that the Championship and Premiership teams don’t enter the competition until the 3rd round. It should also be remembered that the Manchester United – Liverpool final of 1996 and the Arsenal – United final in 2005 were awful matches to watch. 

Bigdavedisaster - Do you think we will begin to see lower level teams like a Leeds being bought by foreign investors? It seems almost a better investment to buy a team for 25 mil as opposed to 100 mil and use the 75 you saved to bring the club up.

Bobby – I don’t think “foreign” investors are sophisticated enough to understand that the bargains may lie with teams like Leeds and Sunderland. When I say foreign I am referring to buyers who have not been involved in the game previously or don’t come from a football culture.

But you notice that with Mandaric’s move to Leicester (new stadium, decent base of support) and to an extent Bates’ purchase of Leeds that some people are searching for bargains. The problem with Leeds is that they have nearly really escaped the financial mess that Risdale and his living the dream era got them into to.

When you consider that the bottom club next season in the Premiership is going to pocket close to $60M there is a definite incentive to do what you are suggesting.

Henry14- Q1. l have had my reservation on Walcott, because l feel that for all his pace and glorified talent l feel that he is very poor technically. when l look at the type of player he will compete with next season like Carlos Vela and Bendtner who have decent pace but are right up there technically l do not see him making the grade. How do you rate him regarding that he is called the biggest thing since Wayne Rooney?

Q2 Do you think Bellamy and Pennant really have a future at Liverpool given that they have both been linked with booze this week?

Q3.What is your opinion on negative support for football in the UK like the glorification of having 10 men behind the ball. l have seen that a draw is glorified. l was just looking at how pundits glorify such performances do you feel it is these kinds of performances that cause the gulf between big and small clubs increase. Do you think negative tactics are good for the game?

Q4. How do you rate managers and what do you think are the components required to be the best coach in the world? Who do you rate as the best?

Bobby – A1 - Consider the following - Walcott is 17; Arsene Wenger thought highly enough of him to pay Southampton a lot of money; Wenger is giving him a decent amount of time; Wenger has a “fairly good” nose for talent. Based on that I don’t see how you could write him off. I have seen very little of Carlos Vela so I not sure I can comment intelligently except to point out that his playing in the Spanish Second Division not the Premiership.

Bendtner is two years older and also playing at a level below the Premiership. When Walcott played in the Championship he had a strike rate of something like 5 goals in 12 games and Harry Rednapp was playing him through the middle. So with all that said I think when you compare Walcott to Vela and Bendtner you are not comparing like to like so it is an unfair comparison.

I’m not sure who has said he is the next biggest thing to Wayne Rooney – labels like that are hung on lots of players – but I don’t see how that impacts how good Walcott is or will be. When you use that label you are pre-judging a player based on whether or not he is as good as Wayne Rooney as opposed posing the question to is he a good player which is different matter.

Walcott’s style reminds me of Marc Overmars so it will be interesting if Wenger continues to play him wide or moves him to a more central position.

A2 – If every player in England who was linked with booze and misbehavior was dumped there would be even fewer English players in the Premiership than there is now. At the end of the day players can get away with a significant level of repeated bad behavior as long as they are doing the job on the park.

Only occasionally do you see managers move players because of discipline problems – far more players are moved because of poor performances. People remember that Ferguson and Wenger moved McGrath and Merson but they sometimes forget that they held on to Robson and Adams.

A3 – I don’t think draws are glorified (in the UK) but when a team with less skill and talent finds a way to get a point or three of a better team I think they deserve credit for it – no matter how it achieved. The alternative is to go and attack with abandon and get stuffed – that is not going to keep the team’s fans very happy. The job of a coach is to provide his team with the best possible chance to win the game. You have a much better chance of winning the game if the game is scoreless or you are only down by a goal than if you 3-0 down after 20 minutes because you started four up front at Old Trafford. The manager’s obligation to his team and its fans – he is not obliged to send out a sacrificial lamb that provides highlight reel goals for the opposition.

A4 – Rating a manager – 1. Player development  2. Winning trophies  3. Success in the transfer market 4. The team being greater than the sum of the pieces 5. Tactically astute and flexible. 6. Lucky.

For the last few years I have considered Capello to be one of the best if not the best but Real Madrid looks to have proved to be too much for even him.

Luiz Felipe Scolari would certainly be close to the top. Lippi and Ferguson are there as well. 

Blueblades - Having witnessed Ronaldo score two goals and provide an assist for Milan in their thrilling 4-3 victory over Siena at the weekend I couldn’t help but wonder why Real Madrid were so eager to sell him, especially considering their lack o####oal threat in recent games.

Do you think that Ronaldo's sale could result in Real finishing 3rd or 4th rather than 1st or even 2nd since the rest of the challenging teams all seem to have consistent goal scorers?

Also which sale of a player in recent years do you think proved most detrimental to the success of the selling side's post sale success?

Bobby – I think it might be one of those situations that Ronaldo will make a big difference to Milan but if he had stayed at Real Madrid he wouldn’t have.

As for a player that moved on – good question. I might go for Fernando Hierro when he left Real Madrid. He may have been nearing the end of his career but he represented something that was very different than the Galacaticos syndrome that was fully embraced post-Fernando.

Here are a few stories that I read over the weekend that might spark some debate.

David Bond has a story in which he details CONCACAF’s President Jack Warner response to the growing ticket scandal. It seems to me that Warner’s reaction is a strong indication that he no longer feels protected and has been flushed out.

Jack Warner is now suing. In the words of the late great Mr. Roy Orbison it seems that we have a severe case of “Running Scared”. This is from the CONCACAF website. (Surprisingly I could not find a way to order tickets).

I stand to be corrected on this but if my memory does serve me correctly then the red herring in this move is the filing of the lawsuit in Switzerland. There was a simllar suit against Andrew Jennings after his expose of the Olympic movement and in particular the old Fascist Juan Antonio Samaranch. In Swiss law you can be found guilty of defamation if you look sideways at someone - ok an exagerration but you get my drift. However, Swiss court decisions are about as intimidating as their navy. If Warner was serious he would have filed someplace else. And I don't believe he has to file in Switzerland just because FIFA is based there.

The English press is working overtime ahead of a BBC Panorama broadcast into kickbacks and bungs in the English game. This article focuses on a payment made during Harry Rednapp’s time at Southampton.

Nick Harris has some more background on the player at the centre of the Southampton investigation.

Nick Szczepanik describes Portsmouth central defender Linvoy Primus’ journey from the bottom to the top. Primus is one of these players that you would mark down as making the absolute most of the talent he has been given. Any other players in the Premiership that you think might fit the bill?

Natasha Woods writes about Queen’s Park, a team that remains dedicated to playing for the enjoyment of the game without consideration of money.

 And finally a few random thoughts on the Manchester United and Arsenal game.

 Adebayor’s goal – and Ronaldo’s grotesque error – may have won the game for the Gunners, but Jens Lehmann’s save from Solksjaer just seconds later, certainly saved the full points for Arsenal.

 John Djourou and Kolo Toure were outstanding at the heart of the Arsenal defense.

 Wenger opted to play Adebayor as a lone striker – a role I thought he filled very well – and packed the midfield with five players. It freed Fabregas to push further forward and United never found a way to shut him down.

The 4-5-1formation allowed Arsenal to dominate possession for large parts of the game but I never sensed that SAF made any changes to counteract the extra Arsenal player in midfield. United seemed quite happy to allow Arsenal the ball perhaps believing that the Gunners would continue their poor performances in front of goal.

By the time Arsenal scored, it was too late to make any telling change. There just seemed to be too many United players who put in average-at-best performances. Despite his mistake, Ronaldo was the only United player to pose a consistent threat over the 90 minutes.

Why would you spend over $30M on Michael Carrick and leave him on the bench for a game that, if won, could have put a stake through the heart of your fiercest challenger over the last decade?

Tomas Rosicky is slowly but surely adapting to the Premiership and Arsenal’s style. He is going to be a Premiership star before the end of this season.

It must have warmed the hearts of Arsenal fans to see patista running at the united defense with power and conviction when he came on late in the game.

Not surprisingly the pace of transfer and loan moves has accelerated in the last forty-eight hours. If the story is confirmed by the Hammers then pride of place has to go to West Ham who looked to have pulled off the biggest double move since Ossie Ardilles and Ricardo Villa moved to Spurs after the 1978 World Cup. It is being reported that Carlos Tevez and Javier Mascherano are to move to Upton Park on a season long loan with an option to make permanent. No one saw this one coming - an absolute stunner.

Some other moves that have been confirmed.

Ricardo Oliveira from Real Betis to Milan with Johann Vogel moving in the opposite direction.

Juan Pablo Sorin to Hamburg from Villarreal.

Andy Cole joins English club number 8 as he leaves Manchester City for Portsmouth. Harry Rednapp seems intent on building football's version of Dad's Army at Fratton Park.

Jonathon Woodgate on loan to Boro from Real Madrid.

Steed Malbranque - Fulham to Spurs with Wayne Routledge on loan to Fulham for a season.

Tommy Smith from Derby County and returns to Watford.

Nacho Novo to Coventry, from Rangers

Rangers have signed Sasa Papac from Austria Vienna

Aberdeen has let Stevie Crawford move back to Dunfermline.  

Dwight Yorke to Sunderland from Sydney FC.

Some deals rumoured to still be in the works at 9:30EST

Chelsea and something big - yes bigger than Robert Huth to Boro from Chelsea.

Jose Antonio Reyes and Julio Baptista swithching clubs (Arsenal / Real Madrid)

Kevin Kilbane - Everton to Wigan

Graham Kavanaugh - Wigan to Roy Keane's Sunderland

Damarcus Beasley from PSV to Manchester City (consider this one as unsubstantiated)

James Milner to Aston Villa from Newcastle

Patrick Kluivert to PSV from Valencia.

Florent Sinama Pongolle on loan to Recreativo de Huelva from Liverpool.

Highly speculative.

Ronaldo from Real Madrid to Inter Milan with Adriano going in the opposite direction.

Ivan Helguera and Roberto Ayala a swap between Real Madrid and Valencia.

 

 

 

Let's take a look at the statistics before we look in detail at the last five teams in this seasons upcoming Premiership. The chances are that at least two of the three promoted teams and the pair that finished just above relegation will be dropping down to the Championship come next May. In the last 13 seasons, at least two teams from that combination have been relegated, and in all 26 teams out of the 40 that have been demoted have come from the aforementioned grouping.

To narrow it down even more the chances of all three promoted clubs surviving is not good. Only the graduating class of 2000/01 (Blackburn, Bolton and Fulham) has managed to survive intact. Conversely only once have all three promoted teams immediately dropped back down – that was in 1997/98 with Barnsley, Bolton, and Crystal Palace.

History shows that come May 2007 the most likely relegation permutation will be one from Aston Villa or Portsmouth; one from Reading, Sheffield United or Watford; and one other side that finished between 11^th and 15^th last season. That has been the combination 6 out of 13 seasons.

Based of past performances of teams promoted by way of the play-offs Watford has the most to fear. Only 5 teams out of 13 have survived their first season in the Premiership after winning the play-offs. However, Reading should also be concerned because the record of the lower division winners is not that much better – 6 times out of 13, the champion has become a chump within 12 months. The best survival rate is by the previous year’s runner up – only 4 times out of 12 (one year the runner up did not receive automatic promotion) has relegation followed. A good omen for Sheffield United.

Last season Aston Villa slumped to 42 points their worst ever Premiership points total although they did finish 8 points ahead of the last relegated team. (In 1994/95 they finished with four more points although four more games were played that year and Villa only finished the year three points ahead of Crystal Palace who were relegated.) David O’Leary left by “mutual agreement” during the summer to finally end what was an inevitable parting of the ways.

The appointment of Martin O’Neill has set off a state of euphoria amongst the Villa faithful. However, until the ownership situation is sorted out and money is available to strengthen the squad any improvement will be limited. O’Neill has never job-hopped and with five years each at Wycombe, Leicester and Celtic the Villa fans will settle for steady improvement over a quick fix option.

Portsmouth is a side that has already sorted out it’s ownership over the summer but even with Harry Rednapp back as manager it looks to be another tough grind ahead for Pompey. The revolving managerial door has seen players arrive and leave by the dozen over the last twenty-four months. Ten players have left during the summer while Glen Johnson on loan from Chelsea and David Thompson signed as a free agent has arrived. Rednapp is sure to make more signings in the next ten days.

One of the most questions is “who can do a Wigan or West Ham this season?” It might be Reading. In Steve Coppell Reading has experience of managing in the Premiership (albeit with relegated Crystal Palace), a hard working squad and a management team that is unwilling to throw money around. The Reading investments (Sam Sodie and Seol Ki Hyeon) have so far been limited although a centre back continues to be a priority. However, it might be Reading’s ability to score goals that sees them survive in the Premiership. 

Controversy and Neil Warnock go together like a rash and …poison ivy. If Warnock goes more than five games without hitting the headlines it will be a major shock. On the transfer front, the major acquisition has been defender Claude Davis from Preston although he is likely to miss the first part of the season through injury. Other arrivals include Mikele Leigertwood (Crystal Palace), Li Tie (from Everton) and David Sommeil (Manchester City).

Without any doubt, Watford was the surprise package of last season in the Championship. Tipped as relegation fodder the Hornets stunned the pundits and gained promotion after comfortably beating Crystal Palace and Leeds United in the play-offs. Manager Adrian Boothroyd was very much the flavour of the month come the end of last season but it will be interesting to see how long that lasts as Watford bring their “direct approach” to the Premiership.

Over the weekend, Danny Shittu opted for a shot at the premiership with Watford in preference to joining West Brom. Boothroyd has also added experience in the form of Damien Francis (Wigan) and Chris Powell (Charlton).