A first response to the news that Liverpool had signed Robbie Keane from Tottenham was what a good signing for the Reds. Regular viewers of the Fox Soccer Report will know that Keane is a long time favourite of mine. He is an exciting player that can create goals and score goals - many of them the memorable variety. What’s more he is a player that makes those around him better.
Teaming Keane with Torres in a Liverpool 4-4-2 seems logical but he does have the flexibility to play just behind the main striker on his own or in an attacking bank of three in a 4-2-3-1. (The contention that bringing Keane to Anfield somehow forces Gerrard to play wide right had me shaking my head - very different players playing normally in very different positions.)
Reaction number two was that Liverpool had agreed to pay Spurs a great deal of money to land Keane. The reported amount varies according to the source but it seems almost certain that it was north of $35M. Add on Keane’s wages and the total outlay will double over the next four years. That is serious money even though transfer fees paid by English clubs are a product of the cash that oozes through the Premiership rather than a true reflection of the quality of players – call it the Premiership Premium.
Any assessment of a transfer is going to be purely subjective and perhaps the best we can do is to compare to other moves under the same market conditions. So when you read that Fulham is ready to pay close to $23M for Andy Johnson then Keane’s valuation may not be that far out of line. Johnson (17 goals in 52 Premiership starts for Everton) is six months younger than Keane with three seasons of Premiership experience. Keane is going into his 11th Premiership season and has 105 Premiership goals (13 as a substitute) in 274 appearances (58 as a substitute).
In seven of the seasons the Irishman has hit double figures in England’s top flight. Consider also that Everton paid around $17M and are looking to pocket a 33% for a striker who has generally been a disappointment in his stint at Goodison.
However, there was something else that crossed my mind and ultimately it had me questioning an element that has for years, been factored in to how we judge transfers – the age of the player.
The thought was that Liverpool paid a lot of money for a player that is 28-years-old. Paying a transfer fee not that dissimilar last summer for 23-year-old Fernando Torres made sense - Liverpool could expect to get eight or nine years out of Torres. In the case of Keane however, four years and maybe just a little bit more.
And sure enough in the papers and on websites there were a number of pundits making the same point – at Keane’s age the sell-on fee - should he move - would be next to nothing. For decades that has been the received wisdom – the age of the player impacts the transfer fee because you are buying an asset that becomes available for resale should the club so desire. The younger the player the higher the premium because the resale value will be higher than for a player the wrong side of 27 or 28.
But is this still true or are we failing to take into consideration that the football world is operating under very different rules than it was decades ago. Newcastle player George Eastham put a stake through the heart of the “retain and transfer system” in the early sixties although it took another 15 years before more liberal freedom-of-contract provisions kicked in.
Even then it took until the 1995 Bosman ruling to truly allow players to sell their skills to the highest bidder and to benefit exclusively once a contract had been fulfilled. Since then the “Webster ruling” has expanded player’s rights further by allowing players under contract to give notice and to buy out the remainder of the contract after serving a fixed period based upon age.
The bottom line is that if a 24-year-old signs a four year contract and a 28-year-old does the same thing then both players are free and clear at the conclusion of their deals. Serve out the contracted period and the club has no transfer coming to them whatsoever. Both are even free to buy-out their contracts before the end of the contracted period.
What it adds up to is that if any of the top clubs are factoring in a premium based on a perceived sell-on value they are kidding themselves. Eventually the clubs, the players and the agents are going to realize that the Transfer Emperor is stark naked and that players are operating costs not assets.
The fact that no one to date has aggressively exploited the leeway granted by rulings and changes to regulations over the last decade and a half is more an indication of how inherently conservative the football industry actually is.
“Retain and Transfer” A system finally found to be illegal in 1963 after George Eastham and the PFA took the owners to court. Under “retain and transfer” a club could retain a player’s registration as long as the club offered to maintain his wages at the previously contracted level. A player who disputed the wages on offer or who wanted a transfer had no option than to sign on as unemployed or pursue another career. The courts finally found the system to be a restraint of trade.
“Freedom of Contract” In the late seventies players were finally allowed to leave a club at the end of their contract. But as long as the present club offered wages the same as the previous contract them the club was entitled to a transfer fee. If the clubs could not agree then a tribunal stepped in and set a transfer fee based on the market.
“Bosman ruling” A Belgian player, Jean-Marc Bosman, was transferred listed at the conclusion of his contract and an excessive fee was asked by the club. Bosman took his case to the European Court of Justice and the court ruled in Bosman’s favour. The ruling granted players complete freedom of movement at the conclusion of their contract with the no transfer fee payable to the former club. “Webster ruling” Andy Webster of Hearts became the first player to use a then little known provision in FIFA transfer regulations that allowed players to give notice of termination after serving a set period of time with their contracted club. The notice comes with a damages provision payable by the player and can be exercised by a player under-28 after serving three years of a contract and for players 28 and over the time served is reduced to two years.
Amid all this summer’s transfer talk one of the few big money moves to actually happen has been the $20M+ transfer of Peter Crouch from Liverpool to FA Cup holders Portsmouth. Taken at face value the intent would seem to be to play Crouch in attack alongside former West Ham and Tottenham Hotspur striker Jermain Defoe.
The press has been quick to label the pair as a “little and large” combination. The little and large arrangement appeals to a number of sensibilities as it seems to match the best of two of the most common type forwards – the big fellow who is good in the air and the wee speedy striker with a nose for knock downs and an eye for a half chance.
But such combos appear to have fallen out of favour and instead many of the most successful Premiership scoring partnerships over the last few seasons have been made up of a striker and a midfielder - Van Nistelrooy and Scholes; Henry and Pires; Torres and Gerrard; Drogba and Lampard.
Nevertheless strike partnerships such as Quinn/Phillips (Sunderland), Heskey/Owen (Liverpool) and Dublin/Vassell (Aston Villa) have shown that a pairing of a big man and wee man along with the right supporting cast can sometimes deliver goals.
But when it comes down to ranking big and small pairings no combo has yet bettered the Kevin Keegan and John Toshack partnership from the Liverpool team of the seventies. Keegan and Toshack is still regarded as the consummate “little and large” strike partnership although as the years have gone by there has been a tendency to think only in terms of long balls pumped forward for the big strong Toshack to knock on for the speedy and nimble Keegan.
There was a lot more to the duo than balls thumped forward looking for Toshack to make contact. Keegan’s prodigious work rate and unselfish running created all sorts of problems for defenders who had become use to marking relatively static target men while Toshack was an intelligent reader of the game who was rarely given sufficient credit for his anticipation and touch.
Encouraging for Portsmouth fans is the fact that Peter Crouch’s only double figure scoring season in the Premiership (12 goals) was in 04/05 when he combined with “little” Kevin Phillips. It also marked Phillips last good Premiership season (10) although Southampton was relegated.
Both Crouch and Defoe have had trouble holding down regular staring spots at their previous clubs with over a third of their Premiership appearances coming as substitutes. Defoe has been the most productive scorer of the two and has also racked up 50% more Premiership appearances than Crouch despite being a year younger – 26 to Crouch’s 27.
Sixteen of Defoe’s 69 Premiership goals in 225 appearances have come off the bench and his 33 helpers reinforce his reputation as a striker who who is sometimes overly focused on his own exploits. Defoe’s best Premiership season for goals came in 2006/07 when he notched a dozen but he has finished two other seasons in double figures.
Crouch has 38 Premiership goals to his credit in 149 appearances although his 5 goals as a substitute seem to contradict the widely held opinion of him as a goalscoring “super-sub”.
In linking Crouch and Defoe Portsmouth boss Harry Rednapp is looking to improve Portsmouth’s goal output knowing that if his club is to improve further then more goals are necessary. In their five Premiership seasons Portsmouth’s scoring has ranged from a low of 37 (miracle escape year) to a high of 48 last season.
The best season return from a single player came from Yakubu with 13 in 04/05 and their two top goal scorers have never broken twenty between them in the five seasons - the best performance was in 2003/04 with Yakubu 11 and Sheringham 9.
Strangely that total was matched last season with Benjani collecting 12 goals and Defoe 8 but these two crossed transfer paths during the January transfer window and never did play together. For Harry Rednapp a change in preferred tactics may also be in order – especially at home.
Although last season Portsmouth finished a best ever 8th in the Premiership Pompey’s home form slipped and four single goal losses and eight draws at home meant a goal here and there might have meant a realistic challenge to fifth place Everton.
Rednapp’s favoured formation was the lone striker and although these tactics worked to Portsmouth’s advantage away from home it often backfired at home. Twenty-four goals in nineteen home games is far from prestigious but it becomes anemic when you consider that 17 goals came in only 4 games (against Reading, Birmingham, Bolton and Derby).
If Portsmouth is become a consistent top six finisher then not only do Crouch and Defoe have to become a dependable source for goals but Rednapp needs to make sure that more goals at one end are not negated at the other. Portsmouth need to find a way to service and support two strikers while keeping the midfield from being overrun and the defense from conceding more goals.
Best goal Russia’s second goal against Sweden scored by Arshavin created by Zhirkov.
Best free kick goal (possibly the only free kick goal) Michael Ballack’s rocket against Austria.
Players of the Tournament 1. Xavi Hernandez, 2. Marcos Senna, 3. David Silva, (All Spain).
Euro 2008 - the Best of (4-1-4-1) Buffon (Italy); Anyukov (Russia), Puyol (Spain), Chiellini (Italy), Zhirkov (Russia); Senna (Spain); Xavi (Spain), Ballack (Germany), van der Vaart (Netherlands), Silva (Spain); Villa (Spain).
Second Team (4-1-3-2) Casillas (Spain); Corluka (Croatia), Tamos (Romania), Simunic (Croatia), Rat (Romania); Aurelio (Turkey); Sneijder (Netherlands), Deco (Portugal), Poldolski (Germany); Arshavin (Russia), Torres (Spain).
Officiating Group stages – fair to good. Knock out rounds – very good to excellent.
Comments of the Day “For whatever reason, Spain excels at producing pint-sized pass-happy pixies: Xavi, David Silva and Andres Iniesta are all in the same mould, creative little fellas who can pass the ball to death. The problem is, you can only fit so many of them in your team.” – Gabriele Marcotti writing back on the eve of the European Championship.
“But the limiting of his participation has not prevented the Arsenal man (Cesc Fabregas) from confirming that he is not simply the most creative architect of penetration available to his country but conceivably the ultimate practitioner of the art in all of football today. And he is as brave as he is talented, constantly displaying not just the physical version of courage but that rarer form so often lauded by Sir Alex Ferguson, the kind that makes a player eager to embrace responsibility, to think always not of what will make him look good but what will benefit the team. As it happens, Fabregas’s innate style almost invariably causes him to look good whatever he does.” – Hugh McIlvanney.
Predictions
Geniusatwork takes the prediction league with 44 points out of a possible 64 points - congratulations.
Thank you to all that participated and the cast of thousands identified by daFootbllas who were apparently responsible for tabulating the results for me.
Blog wisdom and mirror time Pride of place goes to the following posters for their insight and willingness to critique others choices without posting their own predictions.
OCbabelovesepl – “whoever seriously picked SPAIN to win, is retarded. Spain never pulls through, with or without Fernando Torres. That’s the way it is.”
Bman87 – “How funny, in your predictions Germany always beats the Czechs (by the way Czechs beat Germans twice in last three games) or Portugal and Spain are beating everyone else. Unfortunately these two losers will choke again. The final will be Holand (sic) – Czechs, Any m@ron understand that these two teams are playing the most entertaining football.”
No doubt we can look forward to more insight from these two clowns in four years time.
Next up Draws for the first two qualifying rounds of the 2008/09 UEFA Champions League will be held tomorrow, July 1.
Match Report Spain 1-0 Germany It is very rare for a country to make it through a complete tournament final (6 games in the European championships or 7 at the World Cup) playing almost flawless and entertaining football and in the end still lift the trophy. This Spain has done just that and there can be little doubt that they were the best team at Euro 2008.
Spain may have sputtered sporadically in some of the six games but at no time did the overall quality of their play slip below the opposition’s for 90 minutes or anything close to it.
Germany settled into the final match more quickly and for the first 10 minutes looked to be the most dangerous side. An early slip from Ramos allowed Klose half a chance but his control let him down.
Germany targeted the right side of the Spanish defense trying to split right back Ramos and center back Puyol with passes played into the space between them. A similar tactic would eventually bear fruit although it would be Spain that would prosper rather than Germany.
After some early nerves Spain settled in to their familiar pattern of short quick passes and constant movement in midfield. Halfway through the first 45 minutes a Fabregas to Ramos move finished with Fernando Torres leaping high above the German defense only to see his downward header rebound off the base of the post. With no one to take advantage of the rebound the danger was cleared.
As the first half progressed it became obvious that Germany was carrying a number of players who were just not up to the occasion and could not match Spain’s play. Just after the half hour mark Spain scored what would ultimately be the only goal of the game.
A Xavi Hernandez pass split Metzelder and Lahm. Lahm was guilty of worrying too much about Fernando Torres and not making a great enough effort to get to the ball first. Torres brushed the full back aside and clipped the ball over an advancing Jens Lehmann.
The half time introduction of Marcell Jansen after half time was the catalyst for Germany’s best spell of the game. Even then there was little threat that Iker Casillas would be beaten.
The introduction of Alonso for Fabregas swung any territorial advantage back Spain’s way and although Germany threw more players forward Spain was the team most likely to score.
With expectations raised for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa it will be very interesting to see how Spain reacts.
Ratings
Spain Casillas 7 – Lifting the trophy caused him more problems than the German attack.
Ramos 7 – Improved as the game progressed but mental errors are never far away.
Puyol 8 – Strong in the air and along with Marchena (8) presented a formidable barrier.
Capdevilla 7 – Had little to do but what he did do was accomplished with great effectiveness and efficiency.
Senna 9 – Another outstanding display of defensive midfield play but also exhibited great mobility and could have even scored in the last few minutes as he appeared in Germany’s six yard box.
Iniesta 9 – Enjoyed his best performance of the competition. If he put a foot wrong then I missed it. He was at the centre of most of Spain’s moves constantly prompting, passing and supporting.
Xavi Hernandez 8 - Just a smidgen off a 9. Played the through ball that Torres latched onto and scored from.
Cesc Fabregas 7 - Struggled to stamp any authority on the match.
Silva 7 – One of his quietest games of the tournament and was not as influential as we’ve come to expect.
Torres 8 – His pace and power a constant threat to the German defense. But even scoring the winning goal wasn’t enough to stop Aragones from substituting him.
Substitutes Alonso 7 – Helped Spain through the vital last half an hour.
Cazorla 7 – Brought on to replace Silva after he went head-to-head with Podolski. Did what he was supposed without being flashy.
Guiza 7 – With 12 minutes to go he had little time to establish himself but still delivered 100% effort in that time.
Germany
Lehmann 8 – Some may criticize him for the goal that was conceded but I wouldn’t. He never looked comfortable but he still pulled off three very good saves.
Friedrich 7 – Spain rarely attacked down Germany’s right and and for large spells of the game he was hardly noticeable.
Mertesacker 8 – Battled bravely and without him the the destination of the trophy would have been decided long before 90 minutes was up.
Metzelder 5 – The doubts about Metzelder’s readiness for this tournament were widely discussed in the lead up. Any problems he had in the previous games had not proven costly. It was not the case tonight. Nervous, indecisive and off the pace of the game.
Lahm 5 – At fault for the goal he only lasted 45 minutes.
Frings 7 – He fought the good fight and perhaps if he had better support in midfield the outcome might have been different.
Hitzlsperger 5 – Out of his depth. Lucky to last as long as he did.
Schweinsteiger 6 – A big disappointment. His set pieces were very poor and his hesitation to deliver early passes when the opportunity arose stifled a number of promising opportunities.
Ballack 7 – He was too occupied trying to contain the Spanish midfield and had little time to get forward and to support Klose.
Podolski 6 - Accomplished little and was never a threat.
Klose 6 – He never look comfortable, his touch was off and he strayed into off-site positions too often and too easily.
Substitutes Jansen 7 – He showed some of the form that was on display in the first game against Poland. A willingness to get stuck in and win some tackles provided a platform for some early German attacks in the second half.
Kuranyi 5 - He was given over 30 minutes to make an impact and he didn’t.
Gomez 5 – He spent as much time on the field has Guiza and delivered about 80% less.
Final Preview Germany vs. Spain A simplistic view might profess that we have two countries coming at Sunday’s final from two very different perspectives. While Germany will look to embrace their football history, Spain will be fighting to overcome theirs.
But, as with many things, the simple view fails to consider the many subtleties at play. For, if Spain is the great under-achiever of European football, then Germany (and the former West Germany) must be the great over-achiever. That may strike some as a strange comment when a scan of the World Cup and European Championship record books show Germany as a six-times winner; runners-up on another six occasions and beaten semi-finalists four times.
When you include Sunday’s final it all adds up to reaching the final four seventeen times from a possible twenty-seven tournaments. And although there have been some outstanding German sides (1970-76 era being a stand out) there are a number of editions that, if described as average, it would be overly generous. It has been the habit of average German teams making it to the latter stages of major tournaments that fits the description of overachievers.
In Germany a side lacking top class talent in all positions isn’t an excuse for failure at the international level. Build a team around what you have, stay organized, wait for the breaks and always fight to the end even though on occasion it may be a bitter one.
And what Germany has had over the last half century or so has been at least one world class player around whom a competitive side could be built. From Fritz Walter to Uwe Seeler, Franz Beckenbauer, Gerd Mueller, Gunter Netzer, Bernd Schuster, Karl-Heinz Rummenigge, Lothar Mattheus, Jurgen Klinsmann, Mattias Sammer, Steffan Effenberg the mantle was passed until it reached Michael Ballack at the beginning of this decade.
All the German greats with the exception of Uwe Seeler won a major international and/or club trophy during their careers. Sunday may be one of the last chances for Michael Ballack to join them. And nobody is more aware of the need to win a major competition than Ballack. Before the Champions League Final he said, “People remember the trophies you win, not the quarter-finals or the semi-finals.”
He might have added finals as well. In 2002 while with Bayer Leverkusen they lost in the German Cup Final, the Champions League Final and completed a horrible treble by blowing a significant lead in the Bundesliga. Then only a few weeks later Ballack had to undergo the anguish of sitting out the World Cup Final against Brazil after picking up a suspension for bookings. Ironically without Ballack it is doubtful whether a poor German side would have made it to the final match.
After moving to Bayern Munich Ballack never got past the last eight in the Champions League and at the 2006 World Cup Germany lost 2-0 to Italy after the semi final went to extra time. This past season another case of “close but no cigar” with a penalty shoot loss to Manchester United in the Champions League Final in Moscow.
Whether or not Ballack can finally hold aloft a major trophy come the final whistle on Sunday will largely depend on his own performance and that of Torsten Frings. No matter if Joachim Lowe opts to play 4-4-2 with Ballack and Frings centering the midfield four or a 4-2-3-1 (more likely) with Frings offering cover as part of a defensive pairing behind Ballack , Podolski and Schweinsteiger the problem that German must solve is how to disrupt Spain’s rhythm.
Eyebrows may have been raised when Luis Aragones replaced David Villa with Cesc Fabregas (midfielder for a striker) but it turned out to be an inspired tactical change that only served to to solidify Spain’s solid start to the semifinal.
With Marcos Senna providing the defensive cover the midfield foursome of Iniesta, Xavi, Silva and Fabregas were free to dictate the pace and tempo of the game. Russia had no answer. If Germany is to win the final they have to control the midfield and that involves closing down space and shutting down passing lanes. If they don’t it will be a new reign for Spain and their first international trophy for 44 years. If Germany does it will be one more example of why you should never under estimate an over-achiever.
Comments of the Day "Football is a simple game; 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans win," - former England forward and now BBC presenter Gary Lineker.
“Sure, it’s going to be easy for us; all we have to do is to beat Sweden who historically have better results than us, down Greece who are the reigning champions and then Russia and all that will be easy,” – Luis Aragones before the group stage.
Stat Facts 1. Spain is unbeaten in 21 matches (18 wins and three draws) since losing to Romania in November 2006. The Spanish record is 31 matches. 2. Aragones is the oldest coach to lead a team to a European Championship Final. He is 69 years and 337 days old on Sunday. 3. We have already seen 19 goals in the knock stage, that number blows away the 13 goals we were limited to four years ago. 4. Germany has scored six goals in the quarter and semi final games; all six goals have come from crosses delivered or moves started on the left side.
Semi-Final Preview Spain vs. Russia Asked to comment after Greece’s win at Euro 2004 coach Otto Rehhagel said, “First it was about attitude and discipline; then it was organization; then it was results; then it was about self belief; and then it was about the result, the result and the result.”
If Spain goes on to win this tournament Coach Luis Aragones might express similar sentiments. Long dismissed as bottlers and underachievers, Aragones has worked long and hard to reshape the mindset of the Spanish squad. The acid test came last Sunday against World Champions Italy.
We have become use to Spain starting tournaments at a rate of knots but returning home after the quarterfinals has also been a recurring theme. Toss in the fact that Italy has long been Spain’s bête noire together with the hex of losing penalty shootouts on June 22 you can see why Sunday’s win has brought about a renewed belief that the trophy has Spain’s name on it.
Spain also goes into the semifinal knowing that they have already beaten Russia in their opening game of the tournament. What is more Spain has reached the last four without firing on all cylinders. Casillas, Capdevilla, Senna, Silva and Villa of all played well but there have been other players whose play could be described as patchy at best.
Sergio Ramos underwent a particularly tough time against Russia, Iniesta has played poorly, and Torres has yet to hit top form. In the center of the defense Puyol (at times Albiol) and Marchena have accomplished the task without inspiring confidence.
However, Spain also realize that their semifinal opponent has bounced back after the 4-1 loss and has far exceeded the expectations going into the tournament. Before the Euro finals Guus Hiddink had talked down Russia’s chances preferring to to talk about how this tournament would help his team prepare for the World Cup in 2010.
Whether Hiddink was trying to scoot under the radar or the progress of his young team was more rapid than expected, we don’t really know. What we do to know is that Russia has become one of the great stories of this tournament. The transition from a team that stumbled to a qualifying place to a team that is only 180 minutes from winning the European Championship is amazing.
And Hiddink has engineered the change through evolution rather than revolution. Igor Akinfeev, Diniyar Bilyaletdinov, Andrei Arshavin, Aleksandr Anyukov, Roman Pavlyuchenko and Sergei Semak were all part of the Russian side that played against Slovakia just before Hiddink’s arrival less than three years ago.
But you don’t even have to to go back that far. On September 12, 2007 Russia played England at the new Wembley in a critical Euro qualifier. England won 3-0 and to say that Russia looked ordinary would be an exaggeration.
They looked awful. But eight of the players that were so badly beaten at the new Wembley nine short months ago will most certainly line up against Spain today. Of the other three, goalkeeper Akinfeev was injured and not available, Pavlyuchenko was on the bench while Semak was out of favor and only recently been recalled.
The contrast between that heavy legged team that was beaten by England and the team that out ran and out played the Netherlands last Saturday is nothing short of phenomenal. According to Opta Sportsdata Semak covered 9.3 miles while Zyryanov and Zhirkov were not far behind.
The man responsible for Russia’s fitness is Dutchman Raymond Verheijen. Raymond Verheijen also worked with Hiddink when the Netherlands reached the semifinal of the World Cup in 1998 and with South Korea when they reached the same stage four years later.
Verheijen’s background is academic as well as practical implementation. His book, “Conditioning for Soccer,” was published in 1998 and is still available. He has also contributed to research that studied referees errors (they found that errors were more likely the closer the referee was to the incident), and the positioning of assistant referees in relation to offside calls.
Verheijen is considered to be a critical element in Russia’s success. It was on his recommendation that the date of a pre tournament friendly game against Lithuania was changed to June 4 from June 3.
Keys to the Game Denis Kolodin had torrid time against David Villa in the first team of the tournament but settled down to become a vital part of the Russian defense in the next four games. It would have been interesting to see if he could handle Villa after being burned so badly only a couple weeks ago but we won’t get the chance because he is suspended after picking up two yellow cards.
It looks as if one of the Berezutski twins – Vasily – will partner Sergei Ignashevich in defense. However, both of the Berezutskis are painfully slow and that is certainly something that Villa and Torres will test.
At the other end Spain will need to take care of Arshavin and the much lighter and more mobile Pavlyuchenko. The big striker lost close to 9 pounds in the lead up to the tournament and this has contributed to a marked improvement in his game.
Both he and Arshavin are willing to take up wider and deeper positions and that poses problems for defenders. Go with them and you run the risk of leaving space for other attackers to fill; let them go and they have the opportunity to turn and run at defenders with great pace.
Look for the Russian pair to pull into wide positions or perhaps even start there in order to stretch central defenders Puyol and Marchena and defensive midfielder Marcos Senna.
Comment of the Day “"Marco van Basten used to ask me why we had to win and also be convincing," Arrigo Sacchi remembers."A few years ago France Football made their list of the 10 greatest teams in history. My Milan was right up there. World Soccer did the same: my Milan was fourth, but the first three were national teams - Hungary '54, Brazil '70 and Holland '74. And then us. So I took those magazines and told Marco, 'This is why you need to win and you need to be convincing.' I didn't do it because I wanted to write history. I did it because I wanted to give ninety minutes of joy to people. And I wanted that joy to come not from winning, but from being entertained, from witnessing something special. I did this out of passion."” - Jonathan Wilson writing in the Guardian.
Stat Fact “This (Spain vs. Russia) is the ninth time that two countries have met in the group phase and the knock-out stages of a European Championship or World Cup. The only countries to win the knock-out encounter after first losing in the group phase are West Germany against Hungary at the 1954 World Cup and the Netherlands against the Soviet Union at Euro 1988.” – BBC.
Match Report Spain 3-0 Russia As a contest it never reached the heights that we had a right to expect. However, it was a Spanish master class of passing and movement when they had the ball and of shutting down the opposition when they didn’t.
From the start Spain showed much more ambition and initiative. Spain refused to allow Russia to settle in to the pattern of play that had worked so well and had been so successful against the Netherlands.
It took until almost the last minute of play for Casillas to make his first save of the match so dominant was the Spanish back four. Puyol and Marchena had their best game of the tournament while Capdevila did not put a foot wrong.
In Sergio Ramos Spain had a full back who was almost flawless in defense and also found time to push forward and was a constant menace to Russia.
David Villa’s injury after less than 30 minutes threatened to disrupt Spanish plans but rather than opting for a like-for-like change Coach Luis Aragones chose to reinforce his midfield and change from a 4-1-3-2 formation to a 4-1-4-1. On came Fabregas and slowly but surely Spain suffocated the life out of Russia.
When Russia gained possession they were instantly closed down and hurried into rash and wayward passes. Even though the game was scoreless on half time it was obvious that Guus Hiddink needed to kick start his Russian team. But you can’t tackle what you can’t catch and that was definitely the case today.
The first Spanish goal was perhaps slightly fortunate given that Iniesta look to have shot rather than have passed. But a pass it turned out to be as Xavi timed his run and deflected the ball past a helpless Akinfeev.
As Russia tried to push forward Spain enjoyed even more freedom and was much more likely to add to their lead. And so it was when a terrific flick from Fabregas found Guiza who beat the offside trap and then the goalkeeper.
Fabregas was the architect of the third and final goal when he delivered an inch perfect pass to the outstanding David Silva. Silva calmly picked his spot and completed a very impressive Spanish win. On the day Russia just could not match Spain in any department.
Based on his performance Spain will likely go into Sunday’s final as favorite. But that has not necessarily been a good thing at this tournament. Great performances seem to be tantamount to painting a large target on your back at Euro 2008.
Thank you to all the posters and readers who take the trouble to read the blog each day. A special thanks to some of the new posters who have come to the blog during the Euros. I hope you can stick around.
Quarter Final Spain vs. Italy Preview – Of all the quarter finals this one is the most beautifully and finely balanced. For each Italian ying, you can find a Spanish yang. Recent history in major tournaments suggests a win for Italy, but current form points towards Spain.
If Gianluigi Buffon is the best goalkeeper in the world then Iker Casillas can’t be far behind. I.D. Luca Toni as the definitive target man and scorer and Spanish fans can counter with the speed and strength of David Villa and Fernando Torres.
Cynics might even point out that the both sets of centre backs are on par – each pairing looks good when the ball is at the other end of the park. Spain is likely to be without Carles Puyol and a central defensive pairing of Valencia’s Raul Albiol and Carlos Marchena can only increase the level of confidence……if you are Italian.
There again, you also get the feeling that Christian Panucci and Giorgio Chiellini constitute a make shift solution to a defence that has lacked the composure normally provided by Fabio Cannavaro.
The full backs are another saw-off. At their best Zambrotta and Grosso (Italy) and Ramos and Capdevilla (Spain) can get forward and effectively support the attack from wide positions.
So where will this one be won and lost? Not surprisingly it will be probably come down to who can most effectively control the midfield. There is a difference in how both sides normally line up. Italy favour a 4-3-2-1, Spain 4-1-3-2. For Spain the first-choice defensive midfielder is Marcos Senna and he will prowl the area in front of the back four looking to control (probably) Cassano and Perrotta.
However, the most intriguing contest will be between Italy and Spain’s defensive and attacking midfield trios. Barring surprises Spain will start Xavi and David Silva with Iniesta (who hasn’t had a particularly good tournament so far) or Fabregas.
All three players are comfortable on the ball and are first rate passers – their problem is if it comes down to heavy lifting can they match Ambrossini and De Rossi? Ambrossini would appear to be the logical replacement for the suspended Gennaro Gattuso while Daniele De Rossi, who has enjoyed a great tournament since being left on the bench for the first game against Netherlands, will join him in the engine room.
The suspension of Andrea Pirlo means that Italy needs to find another playmaker to centre Ambrossini and De Rossi and only option is Roma’s Alberto Aquilani. The responsibility will be a test for Aquilani who at 24 next month is the youngest member of Italy’s squad.
His international experience for country and club is limited and we have become use to him being revered to as a future star. If Italy is to move on to the semi finals it may well be that being a star of the future just won't hack it anymore and the future must start today.
Referee: Herbert Fandel, assistants: Carsten Kadach, Volker Wezel (all Germany), fourth official: Frank De Bleeckere (Belgium)
Spain 0-0 Italy (Spain win 4-2 on penalty kicks) It was a terse, tense and and a largely forgettable one-hundred and twenty minutes with the penalty kick decider providing the only moment of sustained excitement.
While the absence of Gennaro Gattuso and Andrea Pirlo did not hurt Italy defensively, they certainly missed the playmaking of Pirlo. What he would normally accomplish in one pass was taking two of three today. And when the pass finally arrived at its intended target, Spain had anticipated the danger.
Spain enjoyed the vast majority of possession but with De Rossi and Ambrosini sitting deep their midfield found it difficult to spring Villa and Torres as Italy plugged the passing lanes. And so chances for both sides were extremely limited. Even the substitutions made by both coaches failed to break the predictable pattern.
And so it came down to penalties. De Rossi’s miss gave Spain the upper hand but Buffon’s save from Guiza opened the door for a turnaround. However, Casillas got the better of Di Natale and it was left for Fabregas to sink the fifth and winning penalty for Spain.
Best for Italy on the day were Chiellini and De Rossi while for Spain Silva and Senna worked tirelessly. Spain goes on to play Russia in the semifinal, and for Italy it is Goodnight Vienna.
Comment of the Day “I’ve been reading what foreign journalists say about Holland. There is one recurring story: the Dutch always destroy themselves through infighting, but this time they haven’t yet. This shoddy half-truth misses the point about Dutch football. Holland are good precisely because our players quarrel about football.” – Simon Kuper.
Prediction Update Russia’s win yesterday was more bad news for many of you who posted predictions. Netherlands was a popular pick to make it to at least the semi final stage while those picking Russia to progress that far was limited to two or three. The updated standings will be posted tomorrow at the conclusion of the quarter finals.
Quarter Final Netherlands vs. Russia Preview - Guus Hiddink is looking to continue his fantastic run at major tournaments. He took the Netherlands and South Korea to the last four at World Cups in 1998 and 2002 and Australia to the last sixteen two summers ago in Germany. If he can take his young Russian side to the last four at Euro 2008 it will be a match for any of his previous achievements.
To reach the semi final Russia has to beat the Netherlands and players that Hiddink has more than a passing knowledge of. The teams have reached this stage in very different ways but both could be regarded as surprises based on their preliminary qualifying performances.
Russia seemed to have lost their chance when they lost away to Israel after hitting the post late in the game and then conceding a devastating winner to Israel only seconds later. They were left having to beat Andorra in their last game and praying for a win by Croatia at Wembley.
Despite having already qualified Croatia did beat England and Russia stumbled to a 1-0 win against tiny Andorra. Eighteen goals in twelve games was not overly impressive considering that the group included the likes of Andorra and Estonia. First and third place Croatia and England scored considerably more goals.
The Netherlands qualified as runners up to Romania and only a point ahead of Bulgaria. However, the one point gap is not a fair reflection of the degree of difficulty as the Dutch wrapped up a qualifying spot with two games to go.
But a lacks of goals was a common connection between Russia and Netherlands. The Dutch only scored fifteen goals in 12 games and struggled to 1-0 wins over Luxembourg twice.
There was no hint of the type of football we have seen over the last two weeks from either of these sides. Goals have flowed from the Dutch through devastating counter attacks executed at speed combined with lethal finishing.
Ruud van Nistelrooy has led the attack magnificently while Sneijder and van der Vaart who have generally operated just behind him have both enjoyed spectacular tournaments.
The defense has confounded critics having only conceded one goal to date. Based on their three performances and pedigree the Dutch come into this game as strong favourites.
Few would have thought that Russia would be in this position after an opening game loss to Spain. But the 4-1 scoreline was not a fair reflection of the play. Russia was severely punished (particularly by David Villa) for some sloppy defensive play while they were unable to take advantage of some less than stellar defending by Spain. In truth the game could have finished 5-3 or 5-4.
Since then Hiddink has tinkered with his back four (or back two as the full backs push forward) but has remained commited to Russia playing an aggressive, attacking and entertaining form of football. The return of Arshavin for the third game against Swede and his performance garnered the headlines but there were a number of other fine performances that day that bode well for the fixture against Netherlands.
Denis Kolodin has settled down at the centre of the Russian defence after a disasterous start against Spain. Zhirkov playing has a left back (he can play anyplace on the left side) is a fantastic player to watch while the other full back Anyukov seems to spend more time in the opposition penalty area than his own. In midfield Semak, Zyryanov and Bilyaletdinov have all caught the eye.
However, Russia does seem to missing a reliable striker. Roman Pavlyuchenko came on to score twice against England in Moscow and has scored twice at Euro 2008 but he does not score enough given the chances that come his way.
Referee: Lubos Michel, assistants: Roman Slysko, Martin Balko (all Slovakia), fourth official: Massimo Busacca (Switzerland)
Netherland 1-3 Russia (After extra time) I know it’s not new or original but I’m going to say it anyway “the Russians are coming, the Russians are coming.” And in the process they are playing some fantastic football. We got to see an additional 30 minutes of it today but in truth Russia was so far ahead of the Netherlands that it should not have needed extra time.
The Dutch that had being so lethal in the group stage was blunted by a Russian midfield of Zyryanov, Semak and Semshov but this performance had nothing to do with negating Dutch strengths. It was about Russia playing to their own strengths.
And their strengths where a pleasure to behold. No frightened through football here. Composure on the ball, constantly working hard to provide an option to teammates in possession, beautifully timed runs and craftily struck passes. It was all on display and you were left wanting more. The only thing that was missing was a ruthless streak in front of goal during the first 90 minutes.
Russia took the initiative right from the kickoff and had the Netherlands on the back foot for most of the first half. It to the Dutch almost half an hour to mount any kind of sustained pressure and ironically it nearly cost them a goal. Russia was able to counter attack and the end result was a magnificent save by Edwin van der Sar from an Andrei Arshavin (does he remind anyone else of Michael Ladrup?) shot. The Dutch goalkeeper was called into action again shortly after and made another fine save this time after a long-range effort from center back Kolodin.
As half time drew near there was some encouragement for Dutch fans as Russia started togive away the ball more frequently. Nevertheless half time arrived without a goal. But within 10 minutes of the restart Russia was a goal up. Russia had been relentless in attacking down the left side and this time the ball was fed out to Semak alone on the left wing.
He swung in an inviting cross and Pavlyuchenko timed his run beautifully to beat the Dutch marker and Russia was a goal up. The Dutch were forced to push forward but Russia looked like the team more likely to score on the counter. But despite numerous chances and as the game appeared to to be entering the closing stages there was still only a one goal separating the teams.
The most consistent threat from the Netherlands had come from set pieces and from a free kick out on the left side they scored the goal that forced extra time. A deliciously inviting cross from Sneijder was swung in, Ignashevich was caught on the wrong side of Ruud van Nistelrooy and the Real Madrid striker stooped low to head home.
It was a goal that must’ve brought contradictory feelings to the neutrals watching. On one hand a Russian win that was truly deserved had been hauled from their grasp; conversely we had another 30 minutes of wonderful football to look forward to.
In the past Russian teams would have folded in the face of such adversity and injustice but not this one. They continued to dominate the extra 30 minutes and not surprisingly it was Arshavin who finally killed the Netherlands off.
He set up the winner for substitute Torbinski and then administered the coup de grace as he drilled the ball through the legs of Edwin van der Sar. A deserved win for Russia and the Netherlands again prove the early accolades to be premature.
Note: As the media jump on the Arshavin bandwagon regular readers of the blog will not be surprised at his impact. Back in the fall(?) I think it was craigy_f who first brought him to everyone’s attention when Zenit St. Petersburg played Everton in the UEFA Cup.
Comment of the Day “Much has been made of Van Basten's Holland rediscovering the joys of total football, but that is misleading. Yes, they are fluid and good to watch, but they are a more direct, counter-attacking side than their forebears of 30 years ago. Russia, arguably, given their commitment to attack, are rather closer in ethos to Michels' side, but the resemblance is largely superficial.
For one thing, neither side operates with a libero; for another, neither plays in the 4-3-3 (or, more accurately, 1-3-3-3) shape Johan Cruyff always insisted was essential for total football.
The context, equally, is very different. Part of the reason for the impact of Michels' and Lobaonvskyi's sides were that they were pressing and playing an aggressive offside trap in an era when nobody else was.
Everybody presses now. In their commitment to fluidity Russia and the Netherlands can probably claim to play a form of the game as close to total football as is possible in the modern age, but it should not be forgotten that for Russia that means pursuing their own tradition as much as adapting their approach to suit the heritage of their manager.” – Jonathan Wilson.
Prediction Update Not many picked Turkey while a good number of you had Croatia reaching the semi final. I have a feeling that the prediction league is going to be very close at the conclusion of the quarter finals.
During the
qualifying stage these two teams shared the spoils with a win each and it
seemed that we were heading for a stalemate as the seconds ticked down. The
difference, in the end, came down to a long clearance downfield from Capdevilla
(?), tiring Swedish legs and the spirit of David Villa that inspired him to
chase the ball down, compose himself and to side foot the winner past Isaksson.
Based on share
of the play it was a deserved winner but Sweden provided much stiffer opposition
than a Russian side that almost presented goals to Spain last Tuesday. Thoughts
that another avalanche of Spanish goals might be in the offing received some
encouragement when Torres showed his goal poacher instincts after only fifteen
minutes. The Liverpool striker stretched for a ball played diagonally towards
the six-yard box at midriff height. His studs made contact and Spain led.
As it often
does, going a goal behind provides the impetuous to go forward and so it was
for Sweden. The Spanish defence started to creak and the loss of Puyol only
added to the problem. Ibrahimovic
worked hard to create his shooting chance but the Spanish defenders and
goalkeeper Iker Casillas were guilty of some very slack play.
The Swedish goalscorer did
not come out for second half and with his absence Sweden was relegated to increasingly
infrequent counter attacks. With no one to hold the ball up and to occupy the
Spanish defenders almost every clearance was pinning its way back towards the
Swedes penalty area in super quick time.
But just as it looked as
if Sweden would leave with a point Villa’s fourth goal of the tournament gave
Spain three points.
Greece 0-1 Russia
The result was
more important than the performances in this one. Greece loses and can go home
early. Russia may also be catching an early flight but at least they will go
into the final game against Sweden with a chance to progress. Sweden only needs
a draw but Russia will look to the return of Andrei Arshavin after
suspension as a major boost ahead of Wednesday’s decider.
Comment of the Day
“The
Dutch have dared to identify and promote new talents, while the French, like
the Italians, are paying a price for clinging to players of a certain vintage.
Yes, Lilian Thuram and Thierry Henry have been to the top of the world, but
neither has been a regular starter with their club, Barcelona, and Henry's
sinews are not the reliable carriers of his refined skills that we grew
to admire.
By
contrast, although the Netherlands' coach, Marco van Basten, has recalled Ruud
van Nistelrooy to lead his attack, he has trusted in the engine power, the
youth, and the ability of Sneijder and the creative touches of Rafael van der
Vaart. The coach also, with a nudge from providence, has Dirk Kuyt on his
right wing.” – Rob Hughes writing for the International Tribune.
Tip for the Day
Instantly distrust any
article or commentator that describes the current Dutch team as playing Total
Football ala Cruyff, Ajax and Netherlands in the seventies. They either did not
see the Dutch play at their peak or they have a very poor grasp of the concept.
At this tournament Marco
van Basten has the Dutch playing a system that makes the most of the talent and
abilities that he has available – basically what all coaches are expected to do.
So far the back four has held up well and the two deeper sitting midfield players
(mostly Engelaar and De Jong) have covered space and offered effective defensive
cover.
They defensive six have
provided a platform from which the likes of Sneijder and van der Vaart can display
their attacking talents. Up front operating as a lone striker Ruud Van
Nistelrooy has shown that old horses can learn new tricks. The ability to break
at speed has made the Dutch counter attacks spectacular and lethal but they owe
little to the concept of total football.
So far van Basten has his
team playing a very effective but relatively rigid 4-2-3-1 system that is markedly
different from the free flowing changing-position-almost-at-will philosophy we
saw from teams inspired by Rinus Michels. Michels required his players to be
masters of technique and to be tactically aware. Everyone should be able to play anywhere
was the basic idea but it needed almost perfect players to achieve it.
The 1974 Dutch team was
pretty close. Suurbier, Ruud Krol, Rijsbergen and
Haan were all accomplished players that could fit into almost any role asked of
them. The midfield did not have relatively static defensive midfielders but had
Jansen, Neeskens and the beautiful left foot of Wim Van Hanegem. Then we had Cruyff,
Johnny Rep and Rob Rensenbrink in attack.
Even goalkeeper Jan Jongbloed –
considered by many to be the weak link – made up for many of his short comings
by playing at times as sweeper as the Dutch back four pushed forward. What is
more is that there were superb players on the bench that could fit the Michels
system without a step being missed.
The Dutch have been a revelation
so far in this tournament but it is not because of any adherence to the
philosophy of Total Football.
I have been amiss in not thanking all the regular posters and from what I have seen a good number of new ones. I am constantly amazed the number of posts the blog receives and the quality.
If it wasn't for you the blog would not exist.
Yesterday's offside decision
On the day 3 blog and on a number of other websites there seems to be a lot of folks quoting the Laws of the Game (or rules as many are stating) and Advice to referees.
The only reference to defenders leaving the field of play that I can see in the July 2007 version (page 102) is:
“If
a defending player steps behind his own goal line in order to place an
opponent in an offside position, the referee shall allow play to continue
and caution the defender for deliberately leaving the field of
play without the referee’s permission when the ball is next out of play.”
So are the laws as posted by FIFA outdated? If so where is the current version? And finally for a UEFA official to say that the rule interpretation is not widely known by the players is a disgrace. It is up to the governing body to ensure that if a law is to be interpreted differently then the players should be told.
Day 4
Spain 4-1. Russia
It looked as if Guus
Hiddink decided that the best way of hiding a porous defence was to go after
the Spanish backline. Hiddink’s decision to play an open game certainly created
some chances for his Russian side. However, the Russian strikers failed to take
advantage of the opportunities that came their way and instead Russia were left
open to the sort of swift counter attacks that Torres and Villa feast on.
The opening goal was Torres
at his best. The ball played forward into space, Torres outmuscles a Russian
defender and then slips it to Villa as he arrives in the penalty area. The second
a killing pass from Iniesta and a wonderfully timed run from Villa.
Aragones was quick to ring
the changes in the second half but it did little to change the pattern of the
game. Two goals down Russia had no plan B and continued to press forward at
every opportunity. The result was the same with Villa notching his hat trick and in the process adding $10M to the price
that Real Madrid will pay for him later this summer.
A silver lining for Russia - admitedly a very small one - was Diniyar
Bilyaletdinov who proved to be a continual irritant to Sergio Ramos. Meanwhile the rest of
the Spanish back four looked none too comfortable either. But it took until
later in the game for Russia to score and even then Spain countered to make it
4-1.
The
Spanish off to their usual fast start while it was clear to see why Guus
Hiddink has spent so much time talking down Russia’s 2008 chances. Spain cannot
expect to be given as much space as they were granted today so I’m not sure
that this result tells us anymore about Spain’s chances than we knew before the
tournament.
Greece 0-2 Sweden
If you recorded this game with
the intention of watching it later then do yourself a favour and fast forward
to the 67th minute. You can see Ibrahimovic scoring a cracking goal
and you will have also captured the only high point o####ame that never threatened to
rise above the level of mediocre.
Greece inspired by Claude
Makelele’s ability to spray immaculate 10 yard passes left and right but never
forward showed no interest in making this match even remotely interesting to the
neutral fan. Long diagonal “passes” played in behind the Swede’s right back Alexandersson
and a few meandering runs by 2004 hero Charisteas was the limit to Greece’s
attacking intent.
Sweden at least made an
attempt to go forward although their execution was often poor. Just after Ibrahimovic’s
out-of-nothing goal defender Peter Hansson added another to put the game way
beyond the reigning champs after some comedy-defending from Greece.
Comment of the Day
“We’ll only miss the English when it comes to penalties.” - Lothar
Matthäus.
For those of you who enjoy more statistics with your game Castrol is sponsoring a web page as part of UEFA.com.
Conventional wisdom would have had an early goal for Croatia offering up the platform for a resounding win. Conversely the Austrians would have been expected to fold given the form guide going into the tournament. As it was the early penalty kick turned into a curse for Croatia and a blessing for Austria.
The early goal (a dead-cert penalty decision) seemed to dull Croatia’s appetite for the game as they failed to string passes together in any meaningful way. Without Ivica Olic the Croatian attack would have been completely anemic with Petric utterly anonymous.
With Croatia showing little ambition to increase their early lead the Austrian’s slowly settled into the game, grew in confidence and from the 30th minute onwards they dominated large chunks of the match.
Croatia allowed Austria far too much space in midfield as time and time again the co-hosts were allowed time to look up and to pick out their targets. Modric and Srna were particularly culpable as Austria regularly found Mar
