Last Monday, on the FSR, we discussed how few points separated Everton in 7th from the bottom three in the Premiership. With a third of the season almost completed there are strong indications that a lot more teams than normal will be preoccupied with avoiding the drop.
I have gone back to the 1999/00 season to track the points after eleven games for the following positions:
Never in the last decade have the eighteenth and bottom placed teams had so many points at this stage of the season. Conversely we have never had the seventh placed team with so few.
These elements come together to produce a situation where fourteen of the twenty teams are only a couple of bad or good performances away from sinking like a stone or shooting into the top half. There is still a long way to go but this season might resemble a game of Snakes and Ladders for well over half of the Premiership.
Arsenal vs. Manchester United
This is a match that rarely disappoints. It has mutual animosity at all levels – manager, players and fans – and both teams that can play a bit. It has also for some strange reason, become the source for delusional worldwide television viewing numbers that are widely quoted courtesy of echo journalism and blogging.
It started off with a couple of hundred million a few years ago and by the time we reached last season the viewership was apparently one billion.
For comparison purposes the viewing figures for the World Cup Final in 2006 were 260 million with an estimated 600 million watching some part of the game. If this weekend’s Premiership match hit 100 million worldwide it would be an amazing accomplishment.
The game comes with Arsenal mired in an early season fog. Their long standing defensive deficiencies are being reported as something new although they have been clear for a number of seasons.
I can’t think of one team that has won the Premiership without a dominating centre back and Arsenal are not going to be the first. (I could have added goalkeeper as well although there are arguably examples that prove otherwise).
Gallas, Toure and Silvestre do not fill the bill and although Johan Djourou has the physical capabilities he lacks experience and does not appear to be the most confident of players. Although Berbatov is a threat on high balls United are not going to approach the game with a Stoke-style battering ram – which is probably good news for Arsenal.
The bad news is that based on Wednesday’s performance against Fenerbahce the malaise is spreading. The midfield was ponderous and played without any spontaneity and vigor. One touch became two, two became three and after that the ball moved back or across rather than forward.
They allowed the Turkish team to regroup behind the ball far too easily and when the chances did come the strikers (Van Persie in particular) were wasteful to the extreme.
This is the start of an extremely difficult month for Arsenal in which they might regret some of the points they have dropped over the first eleven matches. Coming up next weekend is a visit from Aston Villa followed by trips to Manchester City and Chelsea. Games against Villa again Liverpool and Portsmouth make for a tricky holiday season as well.
SERIE A Inter Milan vs. Udinese The teams are tied on points and Udinese occupies second place courtesy of a slightly better goal difference. Inter, under Mourinho, have rarely been convincing this season and are currently caught between the defensive rock and the attacking hard place.
When they defend well they can’t seem to score (0-0 draws with Fiorentina and Genoa) while when they open it up they are left exposed at the back (giving up two goals to bottom of the table Reggina after leading 2-0, then three to Cypriot side Anorthosis in the Champions League).
The last four meetings between these two have finished in draws and Udinese have not beaten Inter in their last 8 Serie A matches. In ten league games Udinese have been shut out twice (in the first three games) and have scored at least two goals in the other 8 games.
You can never be sure who Udinese manager Pasquale Marino will rotate and even Fabio Quagliarella (5 goals in 7 starts) has started on the bench for Udinese a few times.
LA LIGA Villarreal vs. Almeria
Villarreal are sitting just a single point behind league leaders Barcelona but all is not necessarily well. In a little over two weeks the defence has conceded five goals in two Champions League games to unfancied Aalborg of Denmark and another four to Atletico Madrid in Liga play.
There is also the case of a humiliating 5-0 defeat that was inflicted upon them by third division minnows Polideportivo Ejido. Even though some important players may have been missing a thrashing such as that cannot be easily dismissed.
This weekend they come up against one of last season’s surprise packets – Almeria. An eighth place finish last season for a club that had never before played in the top flight before was a tremendous achievement.
So far there are few indications of a second year jinx with twelve points from nine games and the game against Villarreal brings to an end a run of consecutive games against Sevilla-Barcelona-Real Madrid.
The small provincial club lost by the only goal of the game to Sevilla before being blitzed by Barcelona 5-0. For much of last Sunday’s game Real Madrid held the edge and a one goal lead until Pablo Piatti popped up with a well-worked equalizer with less than ten minutes left.
The diminutive Piatti was bought from Estudiantes this summer after Brazilian Felipe Melo moved to Fiorentina after just one season.
It is true that if Manchester United does lose on Sunday to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge last season’s Champions will trail their opponents by nine points with September not even over. By a similar token - but less repeated – a United win would leave them three points in arrears with a game in hand.
United also started last season’s campaign poorly. A scoreless draw at home to Reading, another draw at Portsmouth and a humiliating derby day loss to Manchester City generated only two points from the first three games. At least this season they have doubled that total after three games.
Much of the build up to last week’s game against Liverpool centred on the debut of Dimitar Berbatov. Apart from a cut back to Tevez for the opening goal the Bulgarian was as effective as a banker trying to flog off sub-prime mortgages.
After the opening spell during which United settled more quickly Liverpool gradually took over the game the United midfield was found badly wanting. Carrick’s early injury did not help United’s cause but Scholes and Anderson were easily handled by Alonso and Mascherano to the point of domination. The fact that a fit Scholes was substituted with a full quarter of game remaining was highly unusual and Ferguson will have to make sure that control on Sunday is not ceded to the powerful Chelsea in the same way.
With Ronaldo available again after surgery and Vidic suspended Sir Alex looks to have a few key decisions to make as far as his line-up is concerned. Each decision has a domino effect.
1. Who replaces Nemanja Vidic at the heart of the United defence? He could go for Jonny Evans who stepped into the position in midweek against Villarreal and played competently or Wes Brown could move from full back with Gary Neville the replacement. The final decision may rest on Ferguson’s take on whether or not Didier Drogba will start for Chelsea.
2. Where will Rooney play? After stating during the summer that he had perhaps been unfair in not playing Wayne Rooney through the middle more often – a position Fergie believes brings out the best in the England striker – the United manger stuck him out on the right side of midfield against Liverpool. Let’s just say that it didn’t work.
3. Will Ronaldo start? With Ronaldo available after injury it seems highly unlikely that Fergie will opt to keep his powder dry by entrusting the Portugal international’s rear to the bench. The mere presence of Ronaldo may put some doubt in the mind of Chelsea coach Luiz Felipe Scolari about the advisability of unleashing full back Ashley Cole down the United right. (It’s also worth noting that Cole has played Ronaldo better than most over the last five years.)
4. Who will anchor the centre of the midfield? The battle in the middle of the field will be key and United will have to subdue Lampard and Deco (almost definitely) and Michael Ballack (most likely). Lampard has been excellent in the last two Chelsea games (inspired after the Croatia win?) while Deco’s ability to orchestrate the attack has given Chelsea an added edge this season. With Carrick out the primary choices come down to Scholes (playmaker), Hargreaves (bull-terrier), Anderson (patchy), Fletcher and O’Shea (journeymen). If the decision is to play three in the centre of midfield then Ryan Giggs also comes into the equation.
5. Who starts up front and how many? If United goes with five across midfield then that leaves a lone striker with three players vying for the position and each with substantial credentials. Berbatov, Rooney and Tevez – a tough decision.
Stat Fact – After United started last season with 2 draws and a loss they went on a run of 8 straight wins; the first 6 without conceding a goal.
Bayern Munich vs. Werder Bremen
Bayern Munich has long dominated German football and this decade is no exception. Six Bundesliga titles and five Cup wins (all helping to complete domestic doubles) puts Bayern lengths ahead of any other German club.
This season two draws in the first two starts may have given the other Bundesliga teams some hope that the transition from Ottmar Hitzfeld to Jurgen Klinsmann was not going smoothly.
However, wins over Hertha Berlin (4-1) and Cologne (3-0) are likely a better indication of what is in store over the remainder of this season. The fact that their best player last season Franck Ribery has yet to start a game this season only serves to reinforce the depth of the Bayern squad.
Werder Bremen have been the one team to consistently challenge Bayern’s supremacy but even then they only have a domestic double of 2004 to show for their efforts. The one thing Bremen have rarely been short of is goals. In four of the last five campaigns Bremen have finished as the Bundesliga’s top scorers with 75 goals or more each time.
The goals scorers may have changed – Ailton to Klasnic and Klose to Markus Rosenberg – but coach Thomas Schaaf’s commitment to scoring goals has remained.
Based on Werder’s capacity for conceding goals (games involving Werder Bremen more often than not generate the most goals each season) it could be argued that more emphasis on the defensive side of the game might have brought more silverware.
Werder trail Bayern by three points and leaders Hamburg by five and so a loss would open a considerable gap when you consider the season will only be five games old. What is more travelling to play Bayern has not been a rich source of points over the years.
In forty-two Bundesliga visits Bremen have only won six times and drawn nine. Bremen are also coming off a disappointing match day one performance against Cypriot side Anorthosis Famagusta.
But if you are looking for a silver lining it would be that at least last season’s Bundesliga runners-up did not lose – something that has happened in the last four seasons. In that spell Bremen have lost 2-0 three times and 2-1 last season.
Stat Fact - Michael Rensing took over the full time position in the Bayern Munich goal after Oliver Kahn retired at the end of last season. Rensing would step in from time when Kahn was injured and before this season Rensing had started 23 Bundesliga games. Add another four games this season and Rensing has yet to finish on the losing side in the Bundesliga.
Milan vs. Lazio
Only two teams can boast 100% records in Serie A after 180 minutes of play – Lazio and Atalanta. Likewise only two teams are without a single point – Milan and Cagliari. Milan dominated much of their first match against Bologna and could rightfully claim some injustice at the eventual 2-1 scoreline in favour of Bologna.
However, the same case could not be made last week in losing 2-0 to Genoa. Genoa were better in every department and thoroughly deserved the win. What was probably most disconcerting for Milan’s fans was how dreadfully slow and pedestrian Milan looked in everything they attempted.
The reliance on experience has been a common criticism of Milan over the last few seasons and each time they have bounced back. Can they do it one more time?
The young Argentine striker Mauro Zarate has fuelled Lazio’s race to the top and with three goals in two games he has made a great first impression on Italian football.
Stat Fact – Lazio have not beaten Milan in Serie since February 1998 – twenty-one games ago. Since that Lazio win in February 1998 Milan have won 11 and the other ten have been drawn.
Romania took an ultra-extra
cagey approach to this vital match trying to ensure that they didn’t offer Netherlands
a chance to counter attack. By the end of the ninety minutes they had won the
battle but had categorically lost the war.
The safety first approach
worked in the first half as the Netherlands were forced to build their attacks rather
than benefitting from the super quick passing that had caused Italy and France
so much trouble.
However, Netherlands did
have chances with the best falling to Robben but he shot wide with only Lobont
to beat. Boulahrouz of all players was enjoying far too much space when
attacking down the Dutch right and more might have come from a couple of his raids.
Romania’s passing was
inconsistent with far too many sloppy passes or players being caught in
possession. Early in the second half any thoughts Romania may have harboured
about holding back and then pushing for a late winner were crushed when their
sloppy play infected the back four.
The Romanian defence
allowed Afellay to chase down an errant Robben cross completely unmolested. The
Dutch midfielder played the ball back into the box and again the defence failed
to deal with it. This time the ball found Huntelaar and Romania was in trouble.
Needing to up the tempo
Romania was unable to change gears as their passing deteriorated under the
pressure of now having to chase the game. Maruis Niculae who started in place
of his namesake Daniel was a willing front runner but sorely lacking the skills
to bother the Dutch defence.
Mutu was a sporadic
presence as the two received virtually no support from the midfield. The replacement of Maruis by Daniel made no
difference as the Dutch continued to deal with any Romanian threat with a
minimum amount of trouble.
Another goal from the
Dutch, this one from Robin van Persie, only served to highlight the gulf
between these two teams on the day.
Romania go home and leave thinking
of what might have been if only Buffon had been a split second slower or even
a fraction of a second quicker. But even then the game against the Netherlands offered up a second
chance to Romania and they bottled it.
France 0-2 Italy The share of the play
might have been even but Italy should have had France dead and buried before
half time. French supporters can look to the penalty kick awarded against Eric
Abidal and the red card he received as the turning point in this game but there
ominous signs before that moment for
France.
The injury to Franck
Ribery early in the game was another blow to France but even a fully fit Ribery
for ninety minutes would not have mitigated the problems caused by a porous
central defence and a ponderous in midfield.
The lead up to the penalty
decision was a microcosm of France’s early problems. A free kick in the centre circle
was played to Pirlo. With no pressure on him Pirlo had time to look up and clip
a 35-yard pass over the head of Abidal and onto the toe of Toni. Abidal attempted
a tackle was never going to finish up as anything but a dead-cert penalty kick.
Toni was giving the French
defence fits before Abidal’s sending off and he continued after the dismissal.
Grosso also hit the post from a free kick and Perrotta came close to breaking
through. French coach Raymond Domenech’s
decision to withdraw substitute Nasri (he had replaced Ribery) shortly after Abidal’s
red card will be a source of heated discussion amongst French fans. A more fateful
decision was perhaps taken before kick off in opting to deputize full back
Abidal as a centre back.
You can certainly argue
about the merits of centre backs Jean-Alain Boumsong and Sébastien Squillaci. But asking a regular full back to play centre
half when Domenech had two specialist centre-backs available begs the question
why did he bother picking Boumsong and Squillaci to start with?
Daniele
De Rossi’s deflected free kick was the clincher and put the game well beyond
10-man France. De Rossi was excellent throughout and his performance was a
reminder of Donadoni’s mistake in not playing the Roma midfielder against
Netherlands in the first game.
Comment of the Day
"That is the happiest
I have ever been after a match in which I didn't score," Ruud van Nistelrooy
after Holland beat France 4-1.
Prediction Update
LHJS, Sounderfan, knvoetbal
all recorded 100% scores is predicting the outcome of Group B. Sounderfan is
the only poster with a 100% record at the conclusion of the first two groups.
He leads everyone by at least two points.
This was an amazing and
enthralling match that hung in the balance right through to the final whistle. And
in the end Italy and Romania remain in contention for a place in the last eight
come the final round of group play next Tuesday.
Italy has Gianluigi Buffon to
thank for their first point of the tournament and making sure that they
maintained a fragile grip on continued participation. Panucci was got caught red-handed trying to hog tie Niculae for little apparent reason and with ten minutes left Romania got a chance to almost certainly send Italy home.
But the Italian keeper guessed right on a well struck but poorly directed penalty kick from
Adrian Mutu. Buffon got his right hand to the shot which then deflected onto
his trailing leg and clear.
Earlier in the second half
Mutu turned opportunist has he anticipated a header from Zambrotta back to
Buffon. By the time the Italy right back had realized what he had done Mutu had
struck a rising shot behind Buffon and high into the net. It was however a very
short-lived lead as Italy equalized with their next attack.
Giorgio Chiellini intelligently
opted to direct a header down and across the Romanian goal rather than go for
glory and Panucci snuck in at the back
post to tie the game up.
It was almost
inconceivable that this match could reach half time scoreless. Italy set off at
a cracking pace and keyed on the right side of the Romanian defense early.
Contra came in for special attention as Grosso moved forward to support the
Italian attack and Petre instead of playing in midfield found himself
augmenting Contra at right back.
It took fifteen minutes
for Romania to find any attacking intent but once they settled chances were
created in quick succession. Tamas and Mutu had shots well saved by Buffon while
Rat went narrowly wide from a long range effort and a deflected Chivu free kick
came back of the post with the keeper helpless.
The series of close
encounters reinvigorated Italy and the first half finished with Lobent making a
couple of fantastic saves before being beaten by a Toni header. Fortunately for
Romania the assistant referee’s flag went up for offside; replays showed that Toni
was not offside.
The best game of the
tournament so far in my book and the Group of Death, for once, has lived up to
the pre-billing.
France 1-4 Netherlands
It was the sort of day
that you want to bottle and preserve only to be opened when you need reminding
of how compelling, beautiful and thrilling this sport can be. While Italy and
Romania produced an opening act that threatened to one up the main attraction,
the Netherlands and France rose to the challenge and produced a display for the
ages.
A look at the final score
might lead you to conclude that this was a terrible performance by the French. But
rather this was a case of an astonishing performance from the Dutch. Think the
World Cup Final of 1970 when Brazil beat Italy 4-1. Was Italy that bad? The
truth is it didn’t matter because on that day Brazil was just so brilliant it
did not matter who wore the other jerseys.
And so it was today as the
Dutch put on a master class of passing, movement, shooting and finishing that was
quite breathtaking. While 4-2-4 made way for 4-3-3, then 4-4-2 and now 4-5-1 or
4-2-3-1 the basic premise of attacking and defending has remained stunningly
simple. When you attack you want to create space, when you defend you want to
shrink the space. A simple concept yes,
but something that is exceedingly difficult to pull-off - especially when the
opposition is constantly trying to counter.
It was concept that the Dutch executed today to perfection as they sliced open a
French midfield with a display of passing that was devastating. No ten yard
square passes to slow the tempo ala Makelele. The Dutch bypassed the French
midfield with passes that changed defence to attack in the blink of an eye. Meanwhile,
the French midfield with two anchors (Makelele and Toulalan), that should in
theory have been the perfect foil to the Dutch counter attack was left gasping
and chasing shadows.
Netherlands back to back
wins against the World Cup winners and runners up from only two years and by a
clear three goals each time is unprecedented in my memory. The question for the
Dutch is what do they do for an encore? France and Italy both
remain alive with the winner of Tuesday match also needing the Dutch to maintain
their undefeated streak when they face Romania in order to move on.
What a day.
Man of the match - Rafael van der Vaart. Amongst a number of very honourable mentions Ruud van Nistelrooy. Can't play as a lone striker? Hmmm.
Comment of the Day
"If someone talks about my
private life, for example, I'll give them a good punching. I'm not interested
in suing. I like to sort things out my way" - Luiz Felipe Scolari.
It was an ultra-cagey
first half with neither team willing to commit players forward in numbers
during open play. Free kicks and corners offered up the best opportunities but
even then the keepers were rarely tested.
You got the feeling that if France was
willing to up the pace and go after Romania that they would be rewarded. Tamas
and Goian looked very comfortable when balls were played high into the Romanian
area but there was a sense that the ball played quickly along the ground might
have provided them with a far greater challenge.
What's more Romania's goalkeeper Bogdan Lobont seemed at times to be intent on writing his own special chapter focusing on passbacks in the David James and Fabian Barthez best seller "Adventures in Goalkeeping."
The second half pretty
much replicated the opening forty-five minutes. France held an edge but Romania
defended with composure and opted to play the ball through the midfield once the
French had surrendered possession.
The French midfield cried out for a player
to quicken the tempo of the game but Makelele’s forte is to slow the pace down
not to speed it up and France rapidly ran out of attacking ideas. The French attack was not helped by a thoroughly badly balanced pairing of Nicolas Anelka and Karim Benzema.
The second half in
particular was close to a mirror image of the Scotland game in Paris last fall.
A well organized and motivated team comfortably holding off a French side that enjoyed a
significant edge in possession but was unable to change the flow of the game as
their attacking options weathered and died.
A draw means that no
matter the outcome of the second round of games both countries will enter the
final round with a chance of progressing.
Man-of-the-match
My pick would be left back
Razvan Rat. Tidy in possession and
quick in the tackle Rat not only kept Franck Ribery quiet but he also found
time to move forward to support the Romanian attack.
Italy 0-3 Netherlands
Italy is well known for
starting tournaments slowly but rarely has it cost them as dearly. This time it has and even though the opening goal was undoubtedly offside the Italians were
badly outplayed by a Dutch side was quicker in thought and in execution.
The second Dutch goal was
as beautiful as the first one was offside. The classic counter attack came after
van Bronckhorst had cleared what could have been own goal of the Dutch line and
fed the ball up the left touchline. A glorious 40 yard cross field pass was
headed down by Dirk Kuyt and Sneijder showed great composure and skill to hook
the ball passed Buffon.
A third could have come
before half time as van der Vaart played the pass of the tournament to date. He slipped awonderfully weighted pass
behind Materazzi who looked like he was running in sand to van Nistelrooy. This
time Buffon deflected the shot over.
Italy looked to be poorly equipped
to come back from a two goal deficit. A five minute spell from the 70th
minute, when first Toni and then Grosso got behind the Dutch defence and then
Pirlo was denied off of a free kick by van der Sar, was the best Italy could
offer.
Ironically the best
Italian spell of play ended with another Dutch counter attack and another key
contribution from Giovanni van Bronckhorst. Gio was smart enough to know that
Kuyt would not score one-on-one with Buffon and craftily positioned himself for
the cross that came after Buffon’s save. When Kuyt sent in the cross van
Bronckhorst had a free jump and the goal bound header was helped across the
line by Zambrotta.
A nightmare for Italy; a
dream for the Dutch. But remember……it is only the start.
Stat check – Italy’s worst
defeat at major finals since losing 4-1 to Brazil in 1970?
Comment of the Day
This was a description of
Croatia midfielder Luka Modric by Peter Mallett in Saturday’s Globe & Mail.
“Traditionally known for
tireless running, precision through balls and brute physical strength this
22-year-old midfielder personifies all that makes the red, white and blue
checkered shirts of Croatia revered.”
Hmmm - Brute strength? At a little over 5 foot 9 inches and 143
pounds soaking wet Modric might be considered a brute by an under-13 girl’s
team but that is about it.
Prediction Pool
Here is a breakdown of the
winners as predicted on the blog by Friday’s posters.
Germany 25.9%
Spain 19.5%
Italy 13.9%
France 13.0%
Portugal 12.0%
Netherlands 9.2%
Romania 2.8%
Russia
1.9%
Croatia 0.9%
Sweden 0.9%
Thanks to everyone who took the contribute their predictions and I will post the interim leaders at the completion of the group stage.
Group C Only France and Germany have won the Henri Delaunay Trophy more than once. The French won as hosts in 1984 and again in 2000. There were a number of occasions when the 2000 win could have turned out very differently. Spain’s Raul could have sent the the quarter final into extra time but missed a last minute penalty for Spain and France won 2-1.
The semi final against Portugal was decided in favour of France by an extra time golden penalty kick from Zidane. And in final Italy was only seconds away from winning when Sylvain Wiltord equalized sending the game into extra time. David Trezeguet then scored a golden goal winner just before the break.
How they qualified France’s two losses to Scotland made the headlines but once all was said and done the French still scored more goals (25) and conceded fewer (5) in finishing second by three points to Italy in Group 8. Thierry Henry was France’s leading scorer with six goals.
The Coach Outspoken and eccentric Raymond Domenech continues to prove the old adage about never underestimating an over achiever. Domenech succeeded Jacques Santini after France lost in the last eight of Euro 2004 to the eventual winners Greece.
Although France made heavy weather of World Cup qualification and the first two games of the finals against Switzerland and South Korea they did reach the World Cup Final before losing on penalties to Italy.
His selections are rarely anything but controversial and he has done it again setting off a heated debate after leaving the likes of Djibril Cisse, Philippe Mexes, Mathieu Flamini (recalled later as cover for a Patrick Vieira) and Hatem Ben Arfa out of the final squad of twenty-three named last week.
Key Players Karim Benzema does not have the name recognition of some of his illustrious team mates but over the next decade this youngster could become one of the world’s best players. Don’t be surprised if Domenech uses him sparingly but given a chance the 20-year-old could turn a game or two France’s way.
Franck Ribery impressed everyone in Germany two summers ago and a move to Bayern Munich last year led to him being named Bundesliga Player of the Year. Ribery has skill, close control, pace and creativity in a package that makes even the best defenders fear him.
Great Euro Memory Two second half goals from Platini and Bellone gave France a 2-0 win over Spain in the 1984 final in Paris. The 90th minute clincher from Bruno Bellone was the fourteenth goal scored by France in the tournament finals and the only goal scored by a French striker.
Synopsis Every tournament has to have a GROUP OF DEATH and for Euro 2008 Group C is it. When you look at the players available to Domenech it is impossible to dismiss France as legitimate challengers for the trophy. They have talent in every area but a nagging feeling persists that they may find it difficult to breakdown a resolute defence – ala Scotland.
Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying Austria, Romania, Serbia, Lithuania and Faroe Islands will be the opposition in Group 7.
Italy has now made it to the last four finals and won the tournament in 1968.
How they qualified After an opening game home draw to Lithuania and a loss in Paris to France Italy then rattled off a sequence of nine wins and a draw to win Group 8 by three points over France and five points ahead of third place Scotland. With five goals Luca Toni led the scoring for Italy.
The Coach Roberto Donadoni has achieved something that Italy failed to do after winning the 1982 World Cup and that is reaching the following European Championships finals.
Key Players Luca Toni may have only scored twice in Germany in 2006 but he was pivotal to Italy’s success. A massive player -both in size and in temperament.
The reigning bad boy of Italian football Antonio Cassano is in Donadoni’s squad and all eyes will be on how both deal with a situation that may be inherently unstable. Cassano was the only bright spot for Italy four years ago in Portugal but missed out on the 2006 World Cup after falling out with everyone except the baker, the butcher and the pizza-maker.
There is a quality to the Italian squad that few can match.
Great Euro Memory The Championship win in 1968 against Yugoslavia after a replay takes pride of place. Down by one to a first half Dragan Dzajic goal with around ten minutes to play, Domenghini’s equalizer took the final to a replay. Goals from Luigi Riva and Pietro Anastasi saw Italy lift the trophy in the rematch.
Synopsis Enter the tournament as World Champions although they were not assured of qualification until they had faced Scotland in the last group game. A
A team that should probably be building for a title defence in two years in South Africa but Coach Roberto Donadoni has generally stuck to experience with a significant number of World Cup winners returning two years on.
The trio of Antonio Di Natale, Marco Borriello, and Fabio Quagliarella does however offer the coach some interesting options up front. No one would be surprised if Italy won the tournament but by the same token a traditionally slow start in the anointed GROUP OF DEATH could prove very costly.
Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying Drawn in Group 8 with Bulgaria, Republic of Ireland, Cyprus, Georgia and Montenegro.
Group A continued It took Switzerland nine attempts before finally making it to the European Championships finals. That was back in 1996 and they followed with another appearance in Portugal four years ago.
How they qualified As a co-host the Swiss were spared the trauma of qualification.
The Coach Kobi Kuhn succeeded a raft of foreign coaches (Uli Stielike, Roy Hodgson, Gilbert Gress and Enzo Trossero) when he took over the Swiss national team duties seven years ago and when he retires after this tournament he will be replaced by German Ottmar Hitzfeld. Kuhn controversially installed Alexander Frei as captain in the spring of 2007 after a very public falling out with Johann Vogel.
Key Players Alexander Frei has spent a good part of this season injured and only recently returned to play for his club side Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. If he can regain his sharpness for the summer tournament the Swiss may benefit from the enforced rest of their top striker.
Arsenal’s Philippe Senderos’ frailties have been on show at the club level but he still has the confidence of his international coach. Tranquillo Barnetta of Bayer Leverkusen enjoyed an excellent 2006 World Cup in Germany although he did miss a penalty in the shoot-out loss to Ukraine.
Great Euro Memory Their European Championship finals debut came in 1996 when they held host country England to a 1-1 draw. England led from an Alan Shearer goal early in the game but with seven minutes left Stuart Pearce was called for a handball in the penalty box and Kubilay Turkyilmaz equalized from the spot.
Synopsis Switzerland comes into the tournament with all the advantages and disadvantages of co-hosting. No worries over qualifying but unrealistic expectations and few opportunities over the last two years for the team to be tested in competitive games.
The Swiss were knocked out of the 2006 World Cup without conceding a goal although how they achieved such a feat with Pascal Zuberbuhler in net can be considered as a modern-day miracle.
The team has mix of youth and experience although a number of players (Patrick Muller, Tranquillo Barnetta, and Frei) have struggled with injuries lately. Of the two host nations the Swiss have by far the better chance to move on to the last eight.
Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying Drawn in Group 2 with Greece, Israel, Moldova, Latvia and Luxembourg.
Turkey made their European Championship Finals debut in 1996 but lost all three games. Four years later they lost in the last eight to Portugal by a score of 2-0.
How they qualified It was topsy-turvy qualifying campaign for Turkey. Against all odds (including a ban on playing at home for part of the group stage) they started very well in Group C then hit a torrid streak at the midway point.
Just as they looked as if they had again blown their chance they recovered their nerve and finished seven points behind Greece and a point ahead of Norway. Hakan Sukur who has been left out of the squad for the finals was Turkey’s leading scorer with five goals. Tuncay Sanli and Nihat Kahveci each had three.
The Coach Fatih Terim is in charge at the Euros for a second time having helped Turkey to England in 1996. After the ’96 tournament and for the next four years Terim held a Midas-touch with league titles and a UEFA Cup coming his way while in charge of Galatasaray.
A move to Serie A with Fiorentina and then AC Milan did not prove to be nearly as successful and a return to Galatasaray failed to rekindle past glories. After failing to make it to the 2006 World Cup finals a place in the last eight is probably the minimum he needs to keep his job.
Key Players Nihat Kahveci has enjoyed a fantastic season with Villarreal in the Spanish league and looks to have put his injury woes behind. Small, mobile and with the instinct that only very good goal scorers have, Nihat could again become one of the most sought after strikers in Europe after this tournament.
Great Euro Memory At Euro 2000 the final group B match found co host Belgium needing only a draw against Turkey to move on to the knock out stage. Despite going into the match winless in five finals games Turkey shocked the home side with a goal on the stroke of half time from Hakan Sukur and with twenty minutes left the talismanic striker repeated the feat and Turkey moved on with Italy to the quarter final stage.
Synopsis Turkey and host nation Switzerland have “history” from a 2006 World Cup qualifying play-off game so when they face each other there might be fireworks. A hit-or-miss qualifying campaign makes it very difficult to assess Turkey’s chances. On top form they could be a great dark horse; on other days they may struggle to win a game.
Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying Drawn in Group 5 along with Spain, Belgium, Bosnia Herzegovina, Armenia and Estonia.
Not surprisingly Monday’s furour about the Luzhniki Stadium pitch appears to have died away as we now hear that it is going to be just fine. From the equivalent of a neglected public park pitch to no problem in 48 hours – a miracle indeed.
Perhaps the field condition was more a product of a journalist or two who found themselves in Moscow on Monday with nothing to write about until the teams arrived later in the day.
Now comfortable in the knowledge that billions of dollars of talent will not disappear down a sink hole in Moscow I can now safely turn my attention to the game this afternoon.
The problem is that with less than five hours to kick off and I am no closer to deciding who I think is the going to be the 2008 Champions of Europe. I have had a sneaking su####ion about Chelsea since the draw for the last sixteen was made but on the other hand I treat Manchester United in a final as I do the Old Firm – never bet against them.
So in an attempt to come to a decision of Chelsea or Manchester United here are the advantages that each side brings with them to the battle.
Chelsea 1. Didier Drogba – even more so than Ronaldo, Drogba has an unerring ability to lay low for most of a match but to still step up and decide the outcome. His strength and pace makes it impossible to ignore him.
2. Michael Ballack – Player of the Year in England if it was based on the last eight weeks. His positional play has been excellent and when not arguing with Drogba over free kicks the timing of his runs into the penalty box are reminiscent of former United great Bryan Robson.
3. Frank Lampard – criticized for the apparent high number of deflected goals he should be praised for adhering to old adage that if you don’t shoot you don’t score. What’s more when Lampard gets within 30 yards of goal watch how many defenders try to shut him down – no wonder he gets goals from deflections as well as creating gaps for the other Chelsea players to take advantage of.
4. Aerial power – Ballack, Carvalho, Drogba, Terry are all excellent in the air and every set piece for Chelsea will present and real and present danger to United.
5. No other English team has enjoyed a better record against Manchester United than Chelsea and that holds true even before the arrival of Roman Abramovich’s interest free loan.
Manchester United 1. Ronaldo – if United can get him the ball early in the game and he can settle into a rhythm then he can be the match-winner. Cole has played well against him in the past so it will be interesting to see which wing Fergie starts him on.
2. Rio Ferdinand – simply the best defender in England over the last season.
3. Patrice Evra – With a license to get forward that Chelsea appears to be unwilling to give to their full backs the Frenchman can exploit the spaces that the normally narrow Chelsea formation provides.
4. Edwin van der Saar – the Dutchman’s kicking skills have been identified as a weakness by many but it is his ability to find players with quick long throws that might be more pivotal.
5. Mobility – The constant movement used by United means that an opposition defense cannot drop concentration for a moment.
Line Ups Michael Essien at right back appears to be the way that Chelsea will go with Malouda or Kalou a tactical decision and Cole or Bridge a fitness decision.
The speculation on the United line up is whether or not Ferguson buttresses his midfield with Owen Hargreaves. Bringing Hargreaves in would in my opinion be a clear signal that Ferguson would be happy to accept a saw-off in midfield and rely on his wide players and Rooney to win it for him.
A more aggressive strategy - and gamble - would be to start Tevez and Rooney in attack with Tevez being asked to hassle and upset Makelele as he sits just in front of the Chelsea back four. The downside of starting Tevez is that it takes away an option to change the game by way of the substitutes bench.
There have been more than a few articles written after Arsenal’s recent
slump in the Premiership and their exit from the Champions League to Liverpool.
The themes are common, Arsene Wenger should have strengthened the squad during
the January transfer window (as if signing players comes with any sort of
success guarantee); Arsenal needs to rebuild; too young; too old in the case of
Gilberto; “poor me” ala Jens Lehmann.
But how many of these writers, pundits and bloggers picked Arsenal to win
the Premiership this season or even to finish in the top three? My memory of
last August is that a lot of them – even a few Arsenal fans – were looking at a
fourth place Premiership finish at best.
A good number were suggesting that in the wake of Thierry Henry’s
departure for Barcelona that 5th place might even be a more
realistic target. A good run in the Champions League and beating the reigning
European Champions along the way? Not even on the radar.
So how can a team that was so widely dismissed just eight months ago overachieve
and still be considered a failure? The fact of the matter is that Arsenal have
become victim of rising expectations rather than of under achievement. What if
instead of starting the season undefeated in 15 games they had started
disappointingly like Liverpool or even Chelsea and then hit a winning streak
that took them up to third place in the Premiership? We would be inundated by articles fawning
over this Arsenal side as one on the rise and the team to watch next season.
What about the Champions League you say? Liverpool won but the two legs
largely hinged on two penalty decisions that both went Liverpool’s way. Winning
and losing at the top level often sits precariously on a knife edge and in
these two situations the breaks went Liverpool’s way. And sometime in the
future they won’t – as has happened in the past (Chelsea penalty at Anfield in
October anybody?).
But that doesn’t seem to matter to those prone to knee jerk reactions and
with a proclivity to throw a whole nursery class out with the bath water let
alone just one child. With five games to go Arsenal are favourites to finish
above Liverpool in the Premiership and could still finish second ahead of
Chelsea – or even Manchester United.
Given that Liverpool or Chelsea is going to be knocked out at the
semi-final stage of the Champions League and both were knocked out of the FA Cup by Barnsley, can we
expect to read articles about the need for Liverpool or Chelsea to rebuild
their sides?
After all, if Arsenal finishes above them and needs to start over then
why not other teams who finish below them? With five Premiership games left
Arsenal have already gained more points than last season, have a much improved
away record and progressed further in the Champions League than twelve months
ago. The team is younger than their main rivals. What’s more Wenger now knows
for sure what his younger players are capable of – they have been given a
chance. Some have passed examination and a few have come up short.
The short comings of the current Arsenal squad have been made clear but
it is a side that is far more likely to get better than one that might slip
into reverse gear. It does need selective strengthening but it is no time for
lemming-style talk of dumping players and starting all over again. The last flock went over a cliff at the end
of the 2003 season and look what they missed.
LGB – 1. Do you think the "conference" format hurts or helps the MLS? 2. I went to Bill Turianski's website and it showed United having 9 European titles. Am I missing something? 3. Do you have numbers on the FA Cup Semifinal viewership? 4. Gabriele Marcotti's article was interesting. I've been trying to put a finger on United's "rotating attack" system. Marcotti was very vague on trying to describe it, how would you describe it?
Bobby – 1. I would prefer to see one division. 2. I did as well and saw 2 European titles. 3. In the UK - “Cardiff City and Barnsley drew 1.54 million and a 10.9% multichannel share between 3.30pm and 6.30pm, peaking at 2.09 million and 13.2% in the 15 minutes from 5.30 pm.” – Could not track down WBA and Portsmouth numbers. I don’t think FSC subscribes to ratings. 4. It’s based on speed, mobility and a fair amount of position swapping. It’s a variation of the Dutch system but limited to fewer players.
Gers4Lyfe - As an aside I would say your pithy analysis of Lauren Robert reveals perhaps an underappreciated expertise of the Auld Alliance. Dundee United gave Rangers a great run yet again. If as some would have you believe and Celtic supporters have their way running wee Gordon Strachan out of town, do you see them making a play for Craig Levein?
Bobby – I had to look up pithy – I thought that you had replaced “ss” with “th”. I don’t think Celtic will go after Levein. Very limited European experience.
Redfan4ever - Of the clubs in danger of the drop from the EPL what is your thoughts on the likely changes of managers at Bolton, Fulham, Derby? The press has reported that Megson and Jewell will both keep their jobs if their clubs go down. Will Al Fayed sack Hodgson do you think? Who else do you think (manager wise) might move clubs in the EPL this summer? Could Big Sam replace Curbs?
Bobby – Derby won’t change. My sense was that Hodgson was hired to keep Fulham in the Premiership – if he fails he will not be managing them in the Championship. I didn’t think Megson was an inspired choice and still don’t. As for the others – we will have to wait and see although Allardyce to West Ham I would consider to be a long shot.
Neophyte - This might be a different comment but here it goes. On a successful U-10 team there is this tall, lanky kid. He has great skills with his feet. Sees the pitch better than most. Crosses with left and right feet. He can score but is unselfish and so typically plays on the wings. He looked absolutely wonderful this last game. His glaring weakness is he lacks aggressiveness with the loose balls (50/50 balls) etc...His coach keeps him on a tight rein. If he loses a ball the coach will pull him even though he is obviously the most skilled at his position. They have talked about getting rid of the boy. That was why I was there. I told the coach that it looks like the kid suffers from the Peter Crouch syndrome: He looks awkward due to his height so he is critized but is effective on the pitch. Assuming my analysis of the boy’s abilities and weaknesses are correct how do you handle this?
Bobby –I can’t fathom getting rid of an under-10 player because he lacks aggression on 50/50 balls. Keep the kid, dump the coach.
MasMaz - I agree that the 4-4-2 is out of fashion. I am a proponent of the 4-2-3-1. What do you think of 4-2-3-1? What formation does Man Utd use? I can't figure it out.
Bobby – I like 4-2-3-1 as it seems to be a nice balance between defence and attack and allows the bank of three players to push on and attack. But if you don't have two intelligent defensive midfield players then it will not work. United does not use one formation.
Neophyte - I heard Capello say at a coaches clinic that formation means little in the top leagues. Formation won't win games, players win games. He was talking mainly to coaches about player development so his comments could have been made for affect rather than stating his true beliefs. He seems partial to the 4-2-3-1. I've heard Brazilian trainers say the same thing about formation and players and yet the national team seems to like 4-2-2-2. So what is it? Formation? Players? Both?
Bobby – Formation has to be built around player skills.
TimC2412 - Wouldn't you regard Skrtel as a pretty strong January pickup for Liverpool?
Bobby – He looked good against average teams but was hardly impressive against Manchester United. I would say that it is a bit early to sing his praises.
Flashman - What do think of Dave Jones' chances of getting back into the Prem? He's done a good job at Cardiff, grappled as best anyone could with the comatose giant of Wolves and has evolved quite nicely since his playing days. Could you see him a candidate for Blackburn if Hughes hops over to Celtic? West Ham? Citeh!? Or is he doomed to be the best tier two manager in England? He would have the derby with Swansea to look forward to next year if he stays. And tell us what you thought about the Dees-Gers game.
Bobby – Very slim. You have to remember that he was close to getting fired earlier in the season so although the FA Cup Final is a great achievement I think the only way David Jones back to the Premiership will be through promotion. I don’t think Dundee United like leads or Kris Boyd.
Flashman - Do you think Spurs would get more selling Berbatov intact, or having his brain bottled and leased out for study to leading psychiatric institutes?
Bobby – Only leading psychiatric institutes?
Jahmikes - What are views on officiating in matches, I think too much games in recent times too much results are dependent on official calls, many that have been wrong, why doesn’t football give each team three appeals for video playback as in tennis or cricket, it would not take time because managers would use their appeals wisely and the time could be put back in injury time. These days refs give 10 mins sometimes of injury. Also is it me or are officials clamping down on handballs this season, I do not recall so much calls for handball in a season before.
Bobby – Results have always been dependent on officials – it is nothing new. Video replays will mean that we can disagree in slow motion – it is not the answer.
Thierry_Henry - Do you see a day when RANGERS and CELTIC would see too much profit by playing in the EPL and decide to join. Kind like CARDIFF, SWANSEA and WREXHAM, who decided it's not worth playing in the Welsh League. I think it would be cool to have the BIG 6 instead of 4.
Bobby – No, you are more likely to get a European League before Rangers and Celtic are allowed to join the Premiership. It is not the Old Firm’s choice just to get up and join a foreign league. Cardiff, Swansea and Wrexham made that decision a long time ago in a much less regulated time.
ZUCO2 - A few weeks ago I heard a story about Spain's national team that could get suspended from Euro 2008 because of the Spanish government. What's that all about? It seems that Albania national team is facing a similar problem.
Bobby – This sort of thing blows up on a fairly regular basis and FIFA issue threats about withdrawing sanction from the domestic FA and therefore all teams would be banned from international play.
It usually stems from a real or imaginary threat that governments are interfering in football matters domestically. My understanding is that the Spanish FA refused to comply with a government directive that would have meant elections for national sport organizations would be synchronized. The Spanish FA refused and so there is no threat of a FIFA ban.
Jahmikes - About instant success in the Jan transfer window, there is one, Jermaine Defoe, 7 goals in 7 games so far, that looks to me like positives for Pompey. Also with all the injuries in my teams midfield, why would you say Wenger has not played the young Brazilian Denilson, I would think playing him would allow some of the fatigued players some well needed rest.
Bobby – Defoe would be one of the few. Denilson was injured for a good part of 2008 and so I would think that his match fitness would be a concern.
Catgotyourtongue - I find it disconcerning that mistakes by refs are ignored if the result ends fairly. i.e. Hleb's yellow against Milan. If he picks up another he could miss an important game. Mistakes are so prevalent that announcers give it the same commentary as a streaker. Flag happy offsides are also way too prevalent. The thought that this is part of football is part of the problem.
Bobby – So what are you suggesting? Every call is debated and put to a vote before the game can continue? Who makes more mistakes? Players or officials?
Thewobegonboy - My question concerns Dirk Kuyt. I know he scored bags of goals in Holland and had a great World Cup campaign, but he looks very ordinary in the Premiership. It's plain to see that he's a hard-working player, as his runs and defensive interventions were instrumental in helping secure Liverpool's 1-1 draw at the Emirates (yes, as was his goal, which was more about the run than anything). His prolific tracking back got me wondering: is it possible that he's miscast as a striker? As a frontman, do you think he is out of his depth in England, or has serial rotater Rafa failed to get the best out of him? Could you name some players who flourished after switching positions? Thank you.
Bobby – I’m not sure I would have described Kuyt has having a great World Cup campaign. Rafa likes him - as would most managers – because he works incredibly hard. I would not necessarily say that he has been miscast as a striker given his scoring rate in Holland - just a striker that has had trouble stepping up to the next level. Kezman was the same.
There are many players who have successfully changed positions. Off the top of my head - Drogba was a midfield player. Gattusso played at right back for Rangers although that may have had more to do with #### Advocaat. Thierry Henry striker-winger-striker. A number of strikers have moved back to centre half. Kolo Toure was a midfield player I believe.
Although the original plan was for another midweek appearance on the FSR on Wednesday night that will not happen unfortunately.
