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Weekend Preview
Nov 01, 2007 | 9:26PM | report this

Jonathan Wilson on the resurrection of Adrian Mutu.

A very interesting story on Afshin Ghotbi who started coaching at UCLA and has now returned to his native Iran.

Simon Burnton on the inability of English clubs to give young coaches a chance in the top position.

The USSF makes an interesting selection to lead the under-17 program.

And before we move on I think the comments from the UK’s minister of sport Gerry Sutcliffe are worth addressing. Sutcliffe picked on John Terry’s reported salary, as well as losses run up by Chelsea. He might have done his case more good if he had got his numbers right but even so picking on an individual is out of line and so are his general comments.

Sutcliffe’s comment included "people in the street cannot understand salaries like that.” That might be the case but the same people in the street aren’t likely to understand the kind of money made by entertainers and movie stars or any other highly paid individual.

It’s called the free market and John Terry and other players are entitled to be compared to other stars because that is what they are. They provide millions of people with enjoyment (and stuff to write and comment on!!) every week and any nostalgic longing for the good old days before money ruined the game is beyond nostalgia and is in fact delusional.

Over a century ago the first player was paid to play the game and from that point on it was about money. Before the abolition of the maximum wage in England the money flowed from the spectators to the owners with a relatively small portion finding a way to the players.

At least now players are paid commensurate with the revenue they generate – they are the product, they are who we pay to see. And let us not forget that “we,” as the fans, are complicit in the whole scheme. If we didn’t pay to see a game – either live on the box - or buy merchandise, there would be no money to pay the salaries.

The weekend game previews will be considerable shorter as I will be spending much of Thursday and Friday on airplanes. But here is something to chew over with over a quarter of the Premiership season already in the books.

One of things that I look at regularly is how a team is doing compared to previous years and, more often than not, the season before. The simple approach is to look at the number of games played; the points gained and compare the number to the same point in the season before.

Using that criteria and applying it to the top five finishers from last season the gainers so far are Arsenal (+8) and Liverpool (+6) while Manchester United (-2), Chelsea (-4) and Tottenham Hotspur (-8) have all lost ground. If you are attempting to project these numbers to a league finish in May you have to consider the final league points from 2006/07.

Manchester United 89

Chelsea                    83

Liverpool                   68

Arsenal                     68

Spurs                        60

In order to catch Manchester United this season Chelsea would have to gain or United would have to lose 6 points this season. For Liverpool and Arsenal the magic number was 21 points and for Tottenham 29 points.

If you assume from here on the teams would generate the same record this season as they did last season then the league table for the five teams would look like this.

Manchester United 87

Chelsea                   79

Arsenal                     76

Liverpool                  74

Spurs                        52

Chelsea’s magic number has grown from 6 points to 8, while Arsenal’s gap is now 14 where it was 21 points at the start of the season. Liverpool’s gap has also closed considerably dropping from 21 to 13 points. In the case of Spurs the gap is now an unachievable 35 points up from 29 points.

However, there is perhaps a more interesting way to compare season to season records. And that is to contrast the records last season to this one against the same opposition.

Because of relegation and promotion you have to make an assumption about the teams that dropped a division and those that came up. For the purposes of this example Sunderland = Sheffield United, Birmingham City = Charlton Athletic and Derby County = Watford.

When you consider this scenario only Spurs are actually doing worse than last season having dropped 2 points over last season. Manchester United and Chelsea are exactly even, Liverpool have picked up 2 points and Arsenal leads the pack having gained 6 points on last season.

Projected to seasons end and assuming no change to last season’s head2head records for the remaining games the positions come out looking like this.

Manchester United 89

Chelsea                   83

Arsenal                    74

Liverpool                 71

Spurs                       58

 

What  this ishows is that despite Liverpool and Arsenal making early gains it is still a long road to catch United and Chelsea – even though it doesn’t appear that way when looking at the present  table.

Of course you have to consider that given United and Chelsea’s records last season there is more down side than up. However, one area available to Manchester United are the two games against Arsenal – they lost both last season. And of course on Saturday they meet for the first time this season.

Others games that stand out this weekend include Blackburn at home to Liverpool. Don’t expect  many goals in this one – we’ve only seen five in Liverpool’s last five visits to Ewood Park. In MLS to second leg of the first round of play offs continue with all three games evenly balanced. We can expect more goals than in the first leg - as we saw on Thursday evening between the Fire and DC United.

Italy has the Italian derby with Juventus against Inter. In Spain Sevilla “welcomes” Liga champions Real Madrid while Atletico Madrid versus Villarreal looks to be an intriguing match.

102 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Adrian Mutu, Afshin Ghotbi, USSF, Gerry Sutcliffe, Chelsea, John Terry, Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs, Sevilla, Juventus, Inter Milan, Real Madrid, Blackburn, Atletico Madrid, Villarreal
 
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ABOUT ME


BobbyMcMahon
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites. Thank you to all who take time to visit this blog and especially to those of you who post your comments and thoughts. PS - If you have questions please post them on the regular Monday blog. I am unable to answer e mails posted to the inbox on this site. And one more thing. If you have questions or complaints or compliments about programming please contact Fox Soccer Channel or Fox Sports World Canada directly. I have no control over what the stations televise.
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