I try to answer as many questions as possible but I know that I have missed a number over the last few days. As much as I would like to sit and blog most of the day, time is a problem and I am afraid that it is just not possible to answer every query that is posted.
UEFA World Cup Qualifying Another off day at the European Championships and an opportunity to look ahead at World Cup qualifying in Europe that will get underway in less than eight weeks when Kazakhstan plays Andorra. The bulk of the game day one fixtures go on September 6.
There are eight groups of six countries and one of five. The group winners will qualify for the finals. The eight best runners-up will be qualify for a play-off round in which there will be four two-leg ties and the winners will qualify to play in South Africa in 2010.
In deciding the best runners up spots the eight groups of six will not have the results against the countries finishing bottom counted.
Group 1 Portugal, Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, Albania and Malta
Group 2 Switzerland, Greece, Israel, Moldova, Latvia and Luxembourg
Group 3 Czech Republic, Poland, Northern Ireland, Slovakia, Slovenia and San Marino
Group 4 Germany, Liechtenstein, Azerbaijan, Wales, Finland and Russia
Group 5 Turkey, Spain, Belgium, Bosnia Herzegovina, Armenia and Estonia
Group 6 Croatia, England, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Andorra
Group 7 France, Romania, Serbia, Austria, Lithuania and Faroe Islands
Group 8 Italy, Bulgaria, Republic of Ireland, Cyprus, Georgia and Montenegro
Group 9 Netherlands, Scotland, Norway, Macedonia FYR, and Iceland
Based on what you have seen over the last three weeks has your views changed on who might qualify from Europe?
Prediction Update We are down to only two possible winners. LHJS currently has 36 points and Geniusatwork has 34 points. With ten points available to the tournament winner it comes down to Germany (LHJS) or Spain (Geniusatwork).
Whoever gets it wrong will drop down the standings as there are a significant number of people sitting with figures in the low 30s and with either Spain or Germany to win.
The unofficial prediction rabbit Carlos has fallen to the folly of allowing his heart to rule is head. He picked Portugal to beat Spain in the final and so he has stalled out at 42 points.
Comment of the Day “WSC statisticians are also compiling a report on behalf of a secretive but influential global organisation that we are not at liberty to name. Findings include: Simone Perotta's birth in Ashton-under-Lyne has been mentioned a total of 15 times by the two TV channels and national radio; the local TV directors have missed live action while running a slow motion replay 23 times; the BBC panel have offered truisms disguised as analysis on 65 occasions; Alan Shearer has appended “for me” to his half-time comments on 19 occasions, conclusively establishing that the views expressed are his alone rather than those of the entire BBC production team in Vienna, or Geordies everywhere.” – When Saturday Comes on television coverage in the UK.
Stat Fact The highest scoring European Championship final was in 1976 when Czechoslovakia and West Germany drew 2-2. In the penalty shoot-out Uli Hoeness’ spot kick cleared the crossbar with room to spare and then Antonin Panenka chipped the winner down the middle as Sepp Maier anticipated a shot to the corner.
True or False Uli Hoeness was the last German player to miss a penalty in a shoot-out at a major international championship?
Another break day and so an opportunity to answer some questions.
Danielgregg – Something I've noticed about this tournament, don't recall if it's something unique or not: there've been so many records broken. Croatia broke some kind of record when they beat Germany, Turkey broke their record against the Czechs, the Dutch beat their 30-year record against Italy, and Italy beat their 30-year record against France, and now Spain banished their longstanding record against not only Italy, but their June 22 jinx.
You probably don't put too much store in these records. I just think it's been interesting to see so many games one after another with pundits pointing out these records before almost every game, and then they go and promptly break them--so consistently.
Bobby – There have been a good number of these instances. I think it would need a statistician to provide more intelligent comment. But you also have to consider that international match ups don’t happen every year or sometimes even every second year and so extended records of 20 or 30 years may only be less than a dozen games. Something that happens in domestic league leagues
LHJS - I hope one day the America's can combine to form a great tournament like EURO's. 8 groups, 5 or 6 teams per group, winner and second place team gets an invite. Every country between Chile and Canada would have a chance. I think it would be great fun for all soccer fans. A nightmare for police but still as we see on TV it could be great.
Bobby – This is something that comes up on a pretty regular basis. I can’t see either Federation amalgamating for the purposes of World Cup qualifying but maybe there is just a small chance that they could get together for a regional championship.
Here is a précis of an article I wrote for “WSC – When Saturday Comes” back in April 2002 just after the Gold Cup of that year.
“……The more astute readers will have noticed that South Korea and Ecuador are not Central American, North American or Caribbean counties. Since it’s inception in 1991 the Gold Cup has invited guest teams to compete, not something that lends credibility to the competition. It’s simple: when you invite outside teams to enter a regional championship it’s no longer a regional championship.
Can anyone imagine the European Championship inviting Brazil, Argentina and Cameroon to fly in for a game or two? In the past we’ve seen Peru, Colombia and Brazil turn up along with South Korea and Ecuador. To date no guest has won the Cup but two have reached the Final.
This time around only Mexico drew well in the early stages and after they lost in the quarter final to South Korea, average attendance dropped dramatically. Despite the USA reaching the final where they beat Costa Rica 2-0, the last four games in the competition attracted less than 22,000 fans. Cup organizers were quick to point out that the Cup was up against the National Hockey League all-star game and the Superbowl weekend. It begs the question - why would you schedule the Gold Cup against these events in the first place?
The problems facing the Gold Cup are strikingly similar to those facing CONMEBOL and the Copa America. Copa America with the ten member countries of CONMEBOL has to invite two guest countries in order to get to a workable number. Honduras, Mexico, Japan, the USA and Costa Rica have all taken part in the Copa in recent years. There is, however, a solution – the Pan American Cup.
Never heard of it you say? That’s because it’s time to drop both the Copa America and the Gold Cup and start a new sixteen team tournament to be held once every four years with no guest teams.
To ease fixture congestion the tournament could be scheduled just before or just after the European Championship. A Pan American Cup makes sense for everyone, including the long suffering fans.
From a CONCACAF prospective it gives their member countries the badly needed challenge of better opponents. The participation of Brazil and Argentina would increase television revenue in the US and generate greater media exposure throughout North America.
With the imminent demise of the ill fated and vastly unpopular Confederations Cup the need to identify regional champions no longer exists. If the Pan American Cup could live up to half of its potential, the qualifying competitions would generate interest.
By holding the tournament two years after the World Cup, qualification standings in each confederation could form the basis of awarding automatic spots in the Pan American Cup, perhaps the top five finishers in each. As tradition dictates, the previous winner would get a bye along with the host country.
With four spots remaining, three could come from a Central and South American qualifying competition while the remaining spot would be from a North America and Caribbean tournament.
Is there hope that CONMEBOL and CONCACAF would give up some of their power and merge the two troubled competitions? From a CONCACAF prospective they run a competition of no value, so they have little to lose by making a move. CONMEBOL’s view is likely to be different given the Copa America is the oldest international tournament in the world.
However, FIFA has already told the South Americans that an eighteen game World Cup qualifying competition can’t continue if the Copa America is held every two years. The South American qualifying group generates tremendous interest and a great deal of money.
It’s not something the CONMEBOL countries want to lose so the status quo may not be an option. The alternatives are changing the Copa America to a four year format or make a bold move and go for a Pan American Cup.”
Shmish - What's your take on the criticisms that are being leveled on coaches such as MVB and Donadoni? It's predictable that Aragones or Loew will also be condemned by media and bloggers. I think all of these men seem to have done a good job, but I'm not a soccer analyst.
Whether a team is outplayed or outcoached, do we always have to point fingers at the coaches? Surely as Bobby suggests, we should pay attention and offer praise to the winners, when praise is due. One man's or team's success doesn't necessarily equate to another's failure.
Bobby – When a team loses the coach more times than not becomes a lightning rod for criticism. At club level there is almost always a game coming within a week or so and the coach and team have an escape route. That’s rarely the case at international level with friendlies and competition spread out.
Coaches know the “rules” when they sign on as unfair as they may be. But each defeat produces knee-jerk reactions from the fans and the media and the pressure builds on the national associations for a change to be made. Without having lived through it I doubt many of us can truly understand the constant pressure that coaches all operate under.
So much of it comes down to managing expectations going in, unfortunately as fans most of us have expectations that are unrealistic. I’m waiting for the day when a fan admits he would have picked a different team than the one the coach did and because the team won its obvious the coach knows what he’s doing and has not lost the plot!
Terry 63 - Hey Bobby, we're missing the Tartan Army at these major tourneys. Start checking the census rolls to see if there are any Scots with Brazilian grandmothers. Of course...I meant to say Brazilians with *Scottish* grandmas! But either way couldn't hurt.
Bobby – At least Scotland has shown some improvement over the last couple years. Under Berti Vogts a team made up of Brazilian grandmothers might have been a better option. That’s what you meant wasn’t it?
ZUCO2 - I was watching the FSR yesterday and I heard Derek say that there was 9 minutes of added time in a qualifying game in Asia. Shouldn't FIFA have a rule that allows referees to give a certain amount of stoppage time? A sort of limit that shouldn't be broken?
Bobby – So what you do in the situation where there was a serious injury and possibly even a couple of serious injuries? Or the game is delayed because of a streaker? It is up to the referee to judge how much stoppage time should be played I don’t see any benefit by capping it – and in fact I think the opposite is true, it would lead to more abuse.
Exponents - Bobby, off topic, but let's say the USMNT needed a new coach (I think you'll agree that they do)...who should they try to get? Of course this begs the question of who would actually want to coach the USMNT.
Bobby – No, I actually don’t agree. To date Bradley has won the only competition the United States has entered since he became coach (Gold Cup) so why would you be looking to replace him?
Rowdies33 - I haven't seen much heat on Van Basten for his tactics during the game. RVP played on the right flank where he has played before in this tourney, but he was always looking for the cutback and Heitinga wasn't getting forward so there was no width on the right and then by not bringing Robben in on the left there was no presence going forward on the left to stretch the field.
Given the difficulties of set pieces for the Russian defense, wouldn't crosses from wide positions have likely given them problems? Of course, the Russians dominated the play and perhaps nothing changes, but it seemed like the Dutch offense was basically using 1/2-3/4 of the width of the field making the Russians defensive pressure much easier to employ. Thoughts?
Bobby – It might be a bit pointless turning up the heat up on van Baston given that we all knew he was finished with the Netherlands after this tournament. You do make valid points however.
But the problems that the Russians were experiencing from set pieces were coming from in swinging free kicks on the left. Robbin would be delivering more conventional out swinging crosses with his left foot so I’m not sure the two would necessarily be connected. I was surprised that the Dutch did not try and force the Russian full backs to defend more and instead allowed them to attack almost at will.
I think the brilliance of Hiddink’s strategy was to counter the counterattack by pinning the Dutch so deep and not giving them time on the ball that they are unable to use the counterattack tactic that had been so lethal in the group stage.
LHJS - I almost forgot, Bobby did I catch Carlos?
Bobby –Carlos picked up nine points in the quarterfinal round and has 37 points. However, he only has one team left and that is Spain. He has Spain down as beaten finalists.
RINGO - Do those who predicted the third place game lose points?
Bobby – No, they just have to suffer the public embarrassment of adding games that don’t exist.
Comment of the Day
“I bumped into Howard Webb, the English referee, at Zurich Airport last Friday. He was on his way back to Manchester, having not been retained for the knockout stages of Euro 2008, after his controversial decision in the final minutes of the match between Austria and Poland. Webb was no different to a lot of other Englishmen at leading tournaments, really, in that he was eliminated by penalties.” - Martin Samuel in The Times.
Stat of the Day 1: Number of the past 52 goals in the tournament to have come from a defender — Christian Panucci - From Bill Edgar of The Times.
After sixteen straight days of football we have a two-day break before the semifinals get underway. A chance perhaps to indulge in some observations?
In terms of entertainment and quality this edition of the European Championships far exceeds what was on show four years ago. It’s on par with 2000 but the latter stages of the tournament in Netherlands and Belgium had two fantastic extra time games and one that was not unlike the Spain and Italy (except this time Italy supposedly played with 11 men for the full 120 minutes) game yesterday. The last three games of Euro 2008 will decide where it will ultimately sit in the list of great tournaments.
And that partially segues to the fallout from the last quarterfinal match. Contrasting the column inches and tone of blog posts emanating from North America dedicated to Russia versus Netherlands against Italy versus Spain makes interesting reading and may give an indication of how far the game still has to go in these parts.
It seems to me that more effort has been dedicated to trashing the Italy - Spain game than celebrating and reveling in the quality of the play and the spectacle that was Russia versus the Netherlands.
There are far too many posters and writers overly concerned about the reaction from non-soccer fans and sportswriters in North America. It is if a multitude of North American soccer fans/bloggers/posters decided after yesterday’s game to strap on the cilices and whip themselves bloody before the soccer-haters of North America even had a chance to mobilize.
It is a reaction of a bullied child that would opt to inflict self administered pain rather than allowing the bully the pleasure. It is also the reaction that does nothing to grow the game in North America. It was a poor game yesterday - you get them from time to time and not only in soccer. That’s just the way it is and self-flagellation isn’t going to change anything.
Celebrate the great, praise the beautiful, rejoice that on occasion we get to enjoy 120 minutes of footballing heaven the likes of which we were privileged to see on Saturday. No one every grew anything worthwhile by wallowing in the negative and when you respond to soccer-haters gripes all you are doing at best is reinforcing the darkside. At worst it runs the risk of becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy.
As group winners Portugal, Croatia and Netherlands fell at the first knockout stage you could hear a rising crescendo of “it’s not fair.” Perhaps it’s not fair, but there is nothing that grants a right to go on and win a tournament just because a team starts well.
Tournament play is about pacing, peaking at the right time and taking advantage of the breaks when they come your way. You don’t get bonus points for artistic impression, going unbeaten in the group stage or even qualifying after only two games.
You only have to glance at the history of major tournaments such as the World Cup and the European Championships to see how difficult it is to lead from start to finish (as it is in any competition in any sport). Now and again a country will come along and be able to pull off such a remarkable achievement.
Performances by the likes of Brazil in 1958 and 1970, and France in 1984 are extremely unusual and it is easier to find examples of teams burning intensely in the early stages but flaming out spectacularly while failing to reach their overall goal.
Hungary (1954), Netherlands (1974), Italy (1978), Denmark (1986), Spain multiple times, and the daddy of them all Brazil in 1982 played memorable football in the early going only to fail in the later stages.
Comment(s) of the Day “Previously, Daneiele de Rossi and Alessandro Di Natale had failed for Italy, while Daniel Guiza, of Italy, also had his effort saved.” –Kevin McCarra in the Guardian.
Now that I have seen that it can happen to the best I don’t feel so bad about Fernando Cannavaro!
It was later corrected to read - “Previously Daniele de Rossi and Alessandro Di Natale had failed for Italy, while Daniel Güiza, of Spain, also had his effort saved,” but as of this morning Antonio was still being referred to as Alessandro.
“European football has been at a crossroads for some time but the dull, negative style that won the championship for Greece four years ago – and let's be honest propelled Rangers to the UEFA Cup Final and to a lesser extent served Scotland well in their qualifying group – has been found wanting in the face of a new dawn.
Manchester United showed the way at club level by winning in Moscow and at least four of the quarter-finalists in the current tournament have also seen the light. If ever a tournament has rekindled our enthusiasm for the beautiful game and provided a hopeful vision of the future, this has been it. If we are honest, we must also admit that this vision has been helped by the fact that the home nations were not there to cloud the view.” – Pat Nevin in the Scotsman on Sunday.
Prediction Update With three games to go here is a list of the top fifteen. *Indicates no countries left.
Netherlands Antilles 0-1 Haiti Haiti wins 1-0 on aggregate.
Cuba 4-0 Antigua and Barbuda Cuba wins 8-3 on aggregate.
Guyana 1-2 Suriname Suriname wins 3-1 on aggregate.
Barbados 0-1 United States United States win 9-0 on aggregate.
Costa Rica 3-0 Grenada Costa Rica wins 5-2 on aggregate.
Mexico 7-0 Belize Mexico wins 9-0 on aggregate.
St. Lucia 1-3 Guatemala Guatemala wins 9-1 on aggregate.
Canada 4-1 St Vincent & Grenadines Canada wins 7-1 on aggregate.
You can find the make-up of the groups for the next stage by following the link.
It is poorly laid out but it is supposed to indicate three groups of four with the the top two moving onto a final group round. The top three will qualify and the fourth place side finisher will play-off against the fifth team from South America.
Preview – Germany was my pre-tournament pick to win it all. Apart from a solid and sometimes impressive performance against Poland in their opening game this German team has failed to reach nights of the team of two summers ago.
Even though German coach Joachim Löw will be able to watch today’s game from the good seats he has more to worry about than the seating arrangements.
His team has a number of doubts with the injury to Torsten Frings the most pressing concern. Without Frings the German midfield will need to be shuffled with Ballack perhaps being asked to play deeper than usual. Either way the Germans need to find and execute a plan to contain Deco.
The biggest concern to Portugal might be Germany’s threat at set pieces. Carvalho and Pepe have been strangely hesitant on some cross balls in earlier games and that might be something Germany can exploit.
I’m not going to switch horses (better to be wrong once than wrong twice!) at this stage but would willingly concede that if Germany beat Portugal today it will run counter to the form book.
Misses next match if booked:
Portugal - Jose Bosingwa, Miguel, Jorge Ribeiro, Paulo Ferreira and Fernando Meira.
Germany - Michael Ballack and Jens Lehmann.
Referee: Peter Frojdfeldt, linesmen: Stefan Wittberg, Henrik Andren (all Sweden), fourth official: Kyros Vassaras (Greece)
Match Report Portugal 2-3 Germany
If you’re looking for an example of why group form doesn’t mean very much when it gets down to the knockouts stage here was a great example. Germany overcame an indifferent start to the tournament and knocked out a Portuguese side that was favored to move into the last four.
Joachim Low overcame the loss of Torsten Frings to injury by matching Portugal’s 4-2-3-1 formation. Hitzlsperger and the thoroughly impressive Rolfes took care of the defensive midfield duties which allowed Michael Ballack to support the lone striker Miroslav Klose while playing between Schweinsteiger on the right and Podolski on the left.
The move by the German coach seemed to take Portugal by surprise as they struggled in the early going to control Ballock.
The first of the five goals came after a surging run from Podolski. He held off Bosingwa (great going forward but looks very dodgy defending) and he created enough space to slide a cross to the onrushing Schweinsteiger who had lost his marker Ferreira.
Within minutes Germany was two goals to the good when Portugal got their marking all wrong at a free kick. While Portuguese markers focused on Ballack and were then distracted by a great dummy run from Rolfes, Klose was left all alone to hit home. But even then there were few signs that the scoring had finished.
Portugal was finding it far too easy to find teammates with passes and they had lots of space to operate in. More goals just had to come and another did just before of half time. Ronaldo found space behind the German back four and although Lehmann made a good save Nuno Gomes knocked a loose ball into the net.
As the second half got underway it seemed to be only a matter of time before Portugal would equalize and perhaps even to go on and win the game. But too often the final ball into the penalty box or the shot on goal was poor.
Ultimately it was another free kick that was to be Portugal’s undoing. It was almost identical to Germany’s second goal and again the Portuguese defense was culpable in their marking… or lack of. This time the cross reached Ballack and goalkeeper Ricardo was caught in no man’s land as the ball rolled into the net.
However, it was not to be a worry free last 30 minutes for German fans (and for those of us who have picked Germany in prediction pools!!). Between while dying a thousand deaths on the bench, Scolari managed to throw on substitutes Nani and Postiga and it was the two subs that combined for the last goal of the game with three minutes left.
A massive disappointment for Portugal and Germany becomes the first team into the last four. Five goals, lots of action, some sloppy defending and some excellent entertainment. Here’s hoping that it continues.
Comment of the Day
"No17 Germany – 1m98, No13 – 1m88, Klose – 1m82, No21 – 195. I have to worry about that – and that my players are 115cm, 120cm." - Luiz Felipe Scolari.
Prediction Update
Nearly 20% of posters (too many to list) got the finishing positions of countries in group D spot on. It tightened things up at the top and Sounderfan has dropped down to second place. According to my calculations here is everyone currently with 20 points or more.The highest possible total after the group stage was 32 points.
One person who did not post his predictions on the blog but if he had he would be leading by a solid margin would be FSR anchor Carlos Machado. Carlos’ only missteps to date were switching the finishing order or Germany/ Croatia and Austria/Poland in Group B.
If he had posted his predictions he would be sitting on 28 points at the moment. Quite an impressive performance from Carlos who also took out time out to complete the Manitoba Marathon last Sunday in a little under four hours.
Questions
These two questions were posted yesterday.
1. So far, is this a better tournament than Euro 2004?
2. Without checking the statistics do you think Euro 2008 has produced more, about the same or less goals than Euro 2004?
My sense is that this is a better tournament than we saw four years ago. The pace is quicker, more teams are committed to going forward and attacking and there have been a number of more memorable performances to date.
I was surprised that there have been fewer goals in the group stage than there was in 2004. Perhaps my memory is clouded by day scarcity of goals in the knockout stage in Portugal. And who knows, there is a strong chance that goals will again be hard to come by once more in the knockout stage.
The cooler temperatures (slightly warmer temperatures in Austria – 26 goals, cooler in Switzerland –31 goals) are likely encouraging a faster pace game and rewarding the countries that are willing to go out and take the game to the opposition.
The Netherlands, Spain, Russia, Portugal, Turkey (second-half anyway), Croatia and, despite what many knee-jerk stereotype dependant critics will tell you, Italy all benefited by adopting an aggressive approach.
The “what we have we hold brigade” (France, Romania, Poland, Greece and Sweden) are all on the way home. To date only Germany of the sides who have approached the tournament with containment in mind (to be fair it may be a case with Germany that they have just misfired badly) has made it to the knockout stage.
Total Football Revisited
On day eight I posted a comment about commentators who described the Dutch style of 2008 as a total football. I suggested that you should distrust any such description. Gabriele Marcotti suggests that you go a step further and punch them in the mouth!
Romania took an ultra-extra
cagey approach to this vital match trying to ensure that they didn’t offer Netherlands
a chance to counter attack. By the end of the ninety minutes they had won the
battle but had categorically lost the war.
The safety first approach
worked in the first half as the Netherlands were forced to build their attacks rather
than benefitting from the super quick passing that had caused Italy and France
so much trouble.
However, Netherlands did
have chances with the best falling to Robben but he shot wide with only Lobont
to beat. Boulahrouz of all players was enjoying far too much space when
attacking down the Dutch right and more might have come from a couple of his raids.
Romania’s passing was
inconsistent with far too many sloppy passes or players being caught in
possession. Early in the second half any thoughts Romania may have harboured
about holding back and then pushing for a late winner were crushed when their
sloppy play infected the back four.
The Romanian defence
allowed Afellay to chase down an errant Robben cross completely unmolested. The
Dutch midfielder played the ball back into the box and again the defence failed
to deal with it. This time the ball found Huntelaar and Romania was in trouble.
Needing to up the tempo
Romania was unable to change gears as their passing deteriorated under the
pressure of now having to chase the game. Maruis Niculae who started in place
of his namesake Daniel was a willing front runner but sorely lacking the skills
to bother the Dutch defence.
Mutu was a sporadic
presence as the two received virtually no support from the midfield. The replacement of Maruis by Daniel made no
difference as the Dutch continued to deal with any Romanian threat with a
minimum amount of trouble.
Another goal from the
Dutch, this one from Robin van Persie, only served to highlight the gulf
between these two teams on the day.
Romania go home and leave thinking
of what might have been if only Buffon had been a split second slower or even
a fraction of a second quicker. But even then the game against the Netherlands offered up a second
chance to Romania and they bottled it.
France 0-2 Italy The share of the play
might have been even but Italy should have had France dead and buried before
half time. French supporters can look to the penalty kick awarded against Eric
Abidal and the red card he received as the turning point in this game but there
ominous signs before that moment for
France.
The injury to Franck
Ribery early in the game was another blow to France but even a fully fit Ribery
for ninety minutes would not have mitigated the problems caused by a porous
central defence and a ponderous in midfield.
The lead up to the penalty
decision was a microcosm of France’s early problems. A free kick in the centre circle
was played to Pirlo. With no pressure on him Pirlo had time to look up and clip
a 35-yard pass over the head of Abidal and onto the toe of Toni. Abidal attempted
a tackle was never going to finish up as anything but a dead-cert penalty kick.
Toni was giving the French
defence fits before Abidal’s sending off and he continued after the dismissal.
Grosso also hit the post from a free kick and Perrotta came close to breaking
through. French coach Raymond Domenech’s
decision to withdraw substitute Nasri (he had replaced Ribery) shortly after Abidal’s
red card will be a source of heated discussion amongst French fans. A more fateful
decision was perhaps taken before kick off in opting to deputize full back
Abidal as a centre back.
You can certainly argue
about the merits of centre backs Jean-Alain Boumsong and Sébastien Squillaci. But asking a regular full back to play centre
half when Domenech had two specialist centre-backs available begs the question
why did he bother picking Boumsong and Squillaci to start with?
Daniele
De Rossi’s deflected free kick was the clincher and put the game well beyond
10-man France. De Rossi was excellent throughout and his performance was a
reminder of Donadoni’s mistake in not playing the Roma midfielder against
Netherlands in the first game.
Comment of the Day
"That is the happiest
I have ever been after a match in which I didn't score," Ruud van Nistelrooy
after Holland beat France 4-1.
Prediction Update
LHJS, Sounderfan, knvoetbal
all recorded 100% scores is predicting the outcome of Group B. Sounderfan is
the only poster with a 100% record at the conclusion of the first two groups.
He leads everyone by at least two points.
This was an amazing and
enthralling match that hung in the balance right through to the final whistle. And
in the end Italy and Romania remain in contention for a place in the last eight
come the final round of group play next Tuesday.
Italy has Gianluigi Buffon to
thank for their first point of the tournament and making sure that they
maintained a fragile grip on continued participation. Panucci was got caught red-handed trying to hog tie Niculae for little apparent reason and with ten minutes left Romania got a chance to almost certainly send Italy home.
But the Italian keeper guessed right on a well struck but poorly directed penalty kick from
Adrian Mutu. Buffon got his right hand to the shot which then deflected onto
his trailing leg and clear.
Earlier in the second half
Mutu turned opportunist has he anticipated a header from Zambrotta back to
Buffon. By the time the Italy right back had realized what he had done Mutu had
struck a rising shot behind Buffon and high into the net. It was however a very
short-lived lead as Italy equalized with their next attack.
Giorgio Chiellini intelligently
opted to direct a header down and across the Romanian goal rather than go for
glory and Panucci snuck in at the back
post to tie the game up.
It was almost
inconceivable that this match could reach half time scoreless. Italy set off at
a cracking pace and keyed on the right side of the Romanian defense early.
Contra came in for special attention as Grosso moved forward to support the
Italian attack and Petre instead of playing in midfield found himself
augmenting Contra at right back.
It took fifteen minutes
for Romania to find any attacking intent but once they settled chances were
created in quick succession. Tamas and Mutu had shots well saved by Buffon while
Rat went narrowly wide from a long range effort and a deflected Chivu free kick
came back of the post with the keeper helpless.
The series of close
encounters reinvigorated Italy and the first half finished with Lobent making a
couple of fantastic saves before being beaten by a Toni header. Fortunately for
Romania the assistant referee’s flag went up for offside; replays showed that Toni
was not offside.
The best game of the
tournament so far in my book and the Group of Death, for once, has lived up to
the pre-billing.
France 1-4 Netherlands
It was the sort of day
that you want to bottle and preserve only to be opened when you need reminding
of how compelling, beautiful and thrilling this sport can be. While Italy and
Romania produced an opening act that threatened to one up the main attraction,
the Netherlands and France rose to the challenge and produced a display for the
ages.
A look at the final score
might lead you to conclude that this was a terrible performance by the French. But
rather this was a case of an astonishing performance from the Dutch. Think the
World Cup Final of 1970 when Brazil beat Italy 4-1. Was Italy that bad? The
truth is it didn’t matter because on that day Brazil was just so brilliant it
did not matter who wore the other jerseys.
And so it was today as the
Dutch put on a master class of passing, movement, shooting and finishing that was
quite breathtaking. While 4-2-4 made way for 4-3-3, then 4-4-2 and now 4-5-1 or
4-2-3-1 the basic premise of attacking and defending has remained stunningly
simple. When you attack you want to create space, when you defend you want to
shrink the space. A simple concept yes,
but something that is exceedingly difficult to pull-off - especially when the
opposition is constantly trying to counter.
It was concept that the Dutch executed today to perfection as they sliced open a
French midfield with a display of passing that was devastating. No ten yard
square passes to slow the tempo ala Makelele. The Dutch bypassed the French
midfield with passes that changed defence to attack in the blink of an eye. Meanwhile,
the French midfield with two anchors (Makelele and Toulalan), that should in
theory have been the perfect foil to the Dutch counter attack was left gasping
and chasing shadows.
Netherlands back to back
wins against the World Cup winners and runners up from only two years and by a
clear three goals each time is unprecedented in my memory. The question for the
Dutch is what do they do for an encore? France and Italy both
remain alive with the winner of Tuesday match also needing the Dutch to maintain
their undefeated streak when they face Romania in order to move on.
What a day.
Man of the match - Rafael van der Vaart. Amongst a number of very honourable mentions Ruud van Nistelrooy. Can't play as a lone striker? Hmmm.
Comment of the Day
"If someone talks about my
private life, for example, I'll give them a good punching. I'm not interested
in suing. I like to sort things out my way" - Luiz Felipe Scolari.
It was an ultra-cagey
first half with neither team willing to commit players forward in numbers
during open play. Free kicks and corners offered up the best opportunities but
even then the keepers were rarely tested.
You got the feeling that if France was
willing to up the pace and go after Romania that they would be rewarded. Tamas
and Goian looked very comfortable when balls were played high into the Romanian
area but there was a sense that the ball played quickly along the ground might
have provided them with a far greater challenge.
What's more Romania's goalkeeper Bogdan Lobont seemed at times to be intent on writing his own special chapter focusing on passbacks in the David James and Fabian Barthez best seller "Adventures in Goalkeeping."
The second half pretty
much replicated the opening forty-five minutes. France held an edge but Romania
defended with composure and opted to play the ball through the midfield once the
French had surrendered possession.
The French midfield cried out for a player
to quicken the tempo of the game but Makelele’s forte is to slow the pace down
not to speed it up and France rapidly ran out of attacking ideas. The French attack was not helped by a thoroughly badly balanced pairing of Nicolas Anelka and Karim Benzema.
The second half in
particular was close to a mirror image of the Scotland game in Paris last fall.
A well organized and motivated team comfortably holding off a French side that enjoyed a
significant edge in possession but was unable to change the flow of the game as
their attacking options weathered and died.
A draw means that no
matter the outcome of the second round of games both countries will enter the
final round with a chance of progressing.
Man-of-the-match
My pick would be left back
Razvan Rat. Tidy in possession and
quick in the tackle Rat not only kept Franck Ribery quiet but he also found
time to move forward to support the Romanian attack.
Italy 0-3 Netherlands
Italy is well known for
starting tournaments slowly but rarely has it cost them as dearly. This time it has and even though the opening goal was undoubtedly offside the Italians were
badly outplayed by a Dutch side was quicker in thought and in execution.
The second Dutch goal was
as beautiful as the first one was offside. The classic counter attack came after
van Bronckhorst had cleared what could have been own goal of the Dutch line and
fed the ball up the left touchline. A glorious 40 yard cross field pass was
headed down by Dirk Kuyt and Sneijder showed great composure and skill to hook
the ball passed Buffon.
A third could have come
before half time as van der Vaart played the pass of the tournament to date. He slipped awonderfully weighted pass
behind Materazzi who looked like he was running in sand to van Nistelrooy. This
time Buffon deflected the shot over.
Italy looked to be poorly equipped
to come back from a two goal deficit. A five minute spell from the 70th
minute, when first Toni and then Grosso got behind the Dutch defence and then
Pirlo was denied off of a free kick by van der Sar, was the best Italy could
offer.
Ironically the best
Italian spell of play ended with another Dutch counter attack and another key
contribution from Giovanni van Bronckhorst. Gio was smart enough to know that
Kuyt would not score one-on-one with Buffon and craftily positioned himself for
the cross that came after Buffon’s save. When Kuyt sent in the cross van
Bronckhorst had a free jump and the goal bound header was helped across the
line by Zambrotta.
A nightmare for Italy; a
dream for the Dutch. But remember……it is only the start.
Stat check – Italy’s worst
defeat at major finals since losing 4-1 to Brazil in 1970?
Comment of the Day
This was a description of
Croatia midfielder Luka Modric by Peter Mallett in Saturday’s Globe & Mail.
“Traditionally known for
tireless running, precision through balls and brute physical strength this
22-year-old midfielder personifies all that makes the red, white and blue
checkered shirts of Croatia revered.”
Hmmm - Brute strength? At a little over 5 foot 9 inches and 143
pounds soaking wet Modric might be considered a brute by an under-13 girl’s
team but that is about it.
Prediction Pool
Here is a breakdown of the
winners as predicted on the blog by Friday’s posters.
Germany 25.9%
Spain 19.5%
Italy 13.9%
France 13.0%
Portugal 12.0%
Netherlands 9.2%
Romania 2.8%
Russia
1.9%
Croatia 0.9%
Sweden 0.9%
Thanks to everyone who took the contribute their predictions and I will post the interim leaders at the completion of the group stage.
Before we gaze into the crystal ball here are some statistics collected from UEFA.com and other sources on the players, countries and club affiliations at Euro 2008.
Players Oldest – Ivica Vastica a midfielder for Austria will be 39 in September which makes him six weeks older than Germany’s goalkeeper Jens Lehmann.
Youngest – Swiss forward Eren Derdiyok will no longer be a teenager when he turns 20 in six days time.
Tallest – Czech Republic forward Jan Koller stands at 202 cms. which is little over 6 foot 8 inches. But beware Koller and other tall players have been known to grow during major tournaments. Commentators take it upon themselves to add half an inch here and there and so if the Czechs reach the final game don’t be surprised if Koller is over seven foot by June 29th.
Shortest – The player jumping up and down in the tall grass will be Romanian midfielder Florentin Petre who is nearly 5 foot and six and a half inches although he claims that the wall chart in kitchen shows six and five eighth inches.
Countries (average) Oldest Sweden 29.14
Italy 29.10
Greece 29.05
Youngest Russia 26.13
Switzerland 26.38
Spain 26.40
Countries with players 21 or under at the start of the the tournament - 21 Switzerland, Portugal, Austria and Turkey 3 each
Croatia, France and Poland 2 each
Romania, Czech Republic and Spain 1 each
Countries with outfield players 34 or over at the start of the the tournament - 16 Austria, Sweden, France, Croatia, Italy and Czech Republic 2 each
Poland, Italy, Germany and Turkey 1 each
Countries with the fewest domestic based players in their squad Croatia 2
Czech Republic 3
Countries with the most domestic based players in their squad Russia 22
Germany and Italy 19
Tallest (average) Croatia 184.91 (a smidgen under 6 foot 2 inches)
Germany 184.87
Switzerland 184.61
Shortest (average) Spain 179.61 (180 is 6 foot)
Turkey 180.35
Portugal 180.57
Players contributed by clubs Panathinaikos (Greece) and Lyon (France) 10 each
Galatasaray (Turkey) and Bayern Munich 9 each
Premiership clubs represented – 17 of 20. Arsenal and Chelsea 7
Liverpool 5
Manchester United 4
Highest representation of players by league Germany 56
England 43
Spain 41
Italy 36
Russia 30
For those making predictions don’t be to despondent should your “dead-cert can’t lose winner” get off to a slow start. There is ample evidence to show that countries can recover from a set-back or two at the group stage and still go on to the final or even win the Championship.
1980 – Belgium won only once in the group stage but went on to finish as runners-up to Germany.
1984 – Spain recorded just one win in three group games but qualified for the knock out stage all the same and finished as runners-up to France.
1988 – The Netherlands lost their opening game of the tournament to the Soviet Union but gained revenge when the counties met again in the final when the Dutch won 2-0.
1992 – Danish players were recalled from the beaches and golf courses of Europe to take the place of Yugoslavia. Denmark had a draw and a loss in their first two group games before beating France and moving into the last eight. From there the Netherlands were beaten in a penalty kick shoot-out and the Danes took the title beating Germany 2-0 in the final.
1996 – The Czech Republic lost their opening group game 2-0 to Germany but rebounded to make the final against the same opponent. However, Germany doubled the Czechs with a golden goal from Oliver Bierhoff.
2004 – Few would have predicted that the two countries that opened the tournament would also make it all the way to the final match. But that was exactly what happened. Greece beat Portugal 2-1 in the opener and then again 1-0 in the final.
However, few seem to remember that the opening game win was Greece’s only victory in group play. The second match was a 1-1 draw with Spain and Russia then beat the eventual winners 2-1. Portugal actually won group A while Greece only moved on based on scoring more goals than Spain having finished tied on both points and goal differential.
Predictions Before anyone jumps all over anyone's predictions there is one rule. No criticism allowed unless you also post your own predictions under the comments section. A scoring system can be found at the end of my predictions.
Group A 1. Portugal 2. Czech Republic 3. Switzerland 4. Turkey
Group B 1. Germany 2. Croatia 3. Poland 4. Austria
Group C 1. France 2. Romania 3. Italy 4. Netherlands
There has to be at least one surprise and for me this is it. I flipped between France and Italy not to qualify and the decision eventually swung on Cannavaro’s injury and the potential France have available from the bench. We will see.
Group D 1. Spain 2. Greece 3. Sweden 4. Russia
Quarter Finals Portugal to beat Croatia
Germany to beat Czech Republic
France to beat Greece
Spain to beat Romania
Semi Finals Germany to beat Portugal
France to beat Spain
Final Germany to beat France
Prediction scoring system 1 point for every group position picked correctly.
2 bonus points for getting 1st or 2nd position in the group correct
3 points for correctly predicting the winners of each of the quarter final matches
5 points for correctly predicting the winners of the semi finals
10 points for correctly predicting the winners of the competition.
By my calculation sixty-four points (64) constitutes the maximum score.
Greece has appeared at two European Championship finals in 1980 in Italy and in Portugal four years ago.
How they qualified An impressive record of ten wins, a draw and only one loss brought Greece thirty-one points, the best points haul by any country in the qualifying rounds. The single loss was a humiliating one – 4-1 to Turkey in Greece – and it might of led to a meltdown in years gone-by.
Instead Greece rebounded with eight wins and a draw (Norway) while Turkey set off in a different direction with only one win in their next six games. Greece cruised through finishing seven points ahead of Turkey in Group C and eight ahead of Norway. Theofanis Gekas was Greece’s leading scorer with five goals including a hat trick against Malta.
The Coach Otto Rehhagel is now the longest serving and with a shadow of a doubt the most successful international manager that Greece has ever had. Not bad for a man who lost 5-1 to Finland back in 2001 on his debut. A sign of how far Greece has come under his management is the resilience of the team. Even failing to make it to the World Cup finals in 2006 was met with renewed vigour to make sure that as reigning European champions they would be on hand to defend their title in Switzerland and Austria this summer.
Rehhagel has been coaching since the mid-seventies although all his previous appointments had been in Germany where he accumulated all sorts of coaching records.
Key Players Theofanis Gekas has scored a lot of goals in the Bundesliga over the last two seasons and Greece’s progress may be dependent on his goal scoring exploits. Sotirios Kyrgiakos moved to Eintracht Frankfurt in 2006 after a season with Rangers and is a man-mountain of a defender who offers a threat at set pieces. Benfica’s Giorgos Karagounis is the driving force in the Greek midfield and a free kick specialist.
Great Euro Memory Well this is not a difficult one to pick. Four years ago Greece got off to a flying start beating the host nation Portugal in the opening game. Twenty-two days later they repeated the feat in the final after beating France and the Czech Republic in the knock-out stage with a smothering style of defense not seen for a couple of decades. Greece lifting the European championship was the biggest ever shock in European football.
Synopsis The current European Champions will not be slipping under the radar this time. Last time Rehhagel had the team primed and they executed his plan to perfection. Four years on he will again place his faith in many of the same players although he has found places for some younger talent. It is difficult to see how Greece can repeat but four years ago it seemed impossible that they could be crowned the Kings of Europe. But if there is one team that will play to maximum of their collective capabilities it will be Greece under Rehhagel.
Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying Group 2 will also consist of Israel, Switzerland, Moldova, Latvia and Luxembourg.
Russia - Under the guises of the Soviet Union and then the Commonwealth of Independent States in 1992 it is difficult to assign any lineage to Russia’s long term participation. However, they did compete as Russia in the 1996 and 2004 finals and at the 1994 and 2002 World Cups. However, they failed to move on from the group stage in any of their appearances.
How they qualified The group table tells us that Russia finished five points behind Group E winners Croatia and a single point ahead of third place England and Israel. However, that does no justice to the last game dramatics that saw Croatia going to Wembley having already secured a place in the finals and Russia traveling up a mountain to face Andorra.
After going two goals down to Croatia England drew level and were in a position to qualify if they could only hold on the draw. But Croatia scored again to break a 2-2 tie; Russia secured an unimpressive 1-0 win over Andorra and England’s players made plans to take a longer summer break. Aleksandr Kerzahkov scored six times for Russia including a hat trick against Andorra and a double against Estonia.
The Coach Guus Hiddink’s record in international competition is impressive. At France ’98 the Netherlands were unlucky to lose on penalties to Brazil; four years later he masterminded South Korea’s path to the last four; in 2006 he led Australia to a place in the last sixteen. Unfortunately for Hiddink the extraordinary is now expected and that is true for Russia. However, Hiddink has been trying to talk down the expectations surrounding Russia’s performance this summer preferring to cast the 2010 World Cup as the primary target.
Key Players Andrei Arshavin plays his club football for Zenit Saint Petersburg but he could be a big money transfer target this summer. Outstanding individual skills with great anticipation and has the ability to fill a number of different roles in midfield and attack – a real craftsman. There is however, one rather large problem – Arshavin is suspended for Russia’s first two matches after striking an Andorran player late in the last qualifying game.
The heritage of fine Russian goalkeepers seems safe. CSKA Moscow’s Igor Akinfeev at only 22 is one of the best young keepers in the world and will probably fight in out with Zenit St. Petersburg’s Viacheslav Malafeev for the starting spot.
Although Aleksandr Kerzahkov was Russia’s top scorer in the qualifying group stage he has been omitted from the Russian squad. Hiddink has a couple of other options in his back pocket in Roman Pavlyuchenko and Pavel Pogrebnyak – although as players with similar styles it unlikely that they will teamed together.
Pavlyuchenko came against England and scored twice to give Russia and come from behind 2-1 win while Pogrebnyak has scored four times in nine appearances for the national team and scored ten times in Zenit St. Petersburg’s successful UEFA Cup run just past. Pogrebnyak missed the UEFA Cup and he is battling an injury that has him doubtful for the Euros.
Great Euro Memory If you consider the Soviet Union’s participation then the greatest achievement is winning the first competition in 1960. Metreveli equalized for the Soviet’s just after half time following a first half goal from Yugoslavia’s Galic. The final went to extra time before Ponedelnik scored the winning goal with seven minutes left.
Synopsis Any side coached by Dutchman Guus Hiddink cannot be discounted although Russia was the recipient of a couple of fortunate breaks during qualifying. Replacing Arshavin for the first two games may be impossible and the lack of pace in defence may haunt Russia.
Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying Liechtenstein, Azerbaijan, Wales, Finland and Germany will be the opposition in Group 4.
Group C Only France and Germany have won the Henri Delaunay Trophy more than once. The French won as hosts in 1984 and again in 2000. There were a number of occasions when the 2000 win could have turned out very differently. Spain’s Raul could have sent the the quarter final into extra time but missed a last minute penalty for Spain and France won 2-1.
The semi final against Portugal was decided in favour of France by an extra time golden penalty kick from Zidane. And in final Italy was only seconds away from winning when Sylvain Wiltord equalized sending the game into extra time. David Trezeguet then scored a golden goal winner just before the break.
How they qualified France’s two losses to Scotland made the headlines but once all was said and done the French still scored more goals (25) and conceded fewer (5) in finishing second by three points to Italy in Group 8. Thierry Henry was France’s leading scorer with six goals.
The Coach Outspoken and eccentric Raymond Domenech continues to prove the old adage about never underestimating an over achiever. Domenech succeeded Jacques Santini after France lost in the last eight of Euro 2004 to the eventual winners Greece.
Although France made heavy weather of World Cup qualification and the first two games of the finals against Switzerland and South Korea they did reach the World Cup Final before losing on penalties to Italy.
His selections are rarely anything but controversial and he has done it again setting off a heated debate after leaving the likes of Djibril Cisse, Philippe Mexes, Mathieu Flamini (recalled later as cover for a Patrick Vieira) and Hatem Ben Arfa out of the final squad of twenty-three named last week.
Key Players Karim Benzema does not have the name recognition of some of his illustrious team mates but over the next decade this youngster could become one of the world’s best players. Don’t be surprised if Domenech uses him sparingly but given a chance the 20-year-old could turn a game or two France’s way.
Franck Ribery impressed everyone in Germany two summers ago and a move to Bayern Munich last year led to him being named Bundesliga Player of the Year. Ribery has skill, close control, pace and creativity in a package that makes even the best defenders fear him.
Great Euro Memory Two second half goals from Platini and Bellone gave France a 2-0 win over Spain in the 1984 final in Paris. The 90th minute clincher from Bruno Bellone was the fourteenth goal scored by France in the tournament finals and the only goal scored by a French striker.
Synopsis Every tournament has to have a GROUP OF DEATH and for Euro 2008 Group C is it. When you look at the players available to Domenech it is impossible to dismiss France as legitimate challengers for the trophy. They have talent in every area but a nagging feeling persists that they may find it difficult to breakdown a resolute defence –
