Semi Final Preview
Germany vs. Turkey
A late winning goal against Switzerland was regarded as a fine piece of opportunism, while two goals in the last three minutes against the Czech Republic in the next game was considered to be remarkable.

Then came an equalizing goal with virtually the last kick of the ball in extra time against Croatia – after going a goal behind only seconds before – followed by a dramatic penalty shoot-out win.

Each performance has topped the one before both in terms of dramatic effect and achievement. Now facing the pre-tournament favorites Germany with a depleted squad, can Turkey do it one more time?

The bookies do not think so and are giving odds of around 7/1 that Turkey will be able to maintain their phenomenal run in Wednesday’s semifinal. It is certainly not the first time that Turkey have been cast as the underdogs at this tournament but they have also never gone into a game with such an under strength team.

Tuncay Sanli, Arda Turan and Emre Asik and first choice keeper Volkan Demirel will all be missing through suspension. Emre Belozoglu, defenders Servet Cetin and Emre Gungor, as well as Tumer Metin and striker Nihat Kahveci who are all either definitely out or are extremely doubtful because of injury. Defensive midfielder Mehmet Aurelio who missed the dramatic win against Croatia returns after serving a one-game suspension and constitutes the only bright spot.

Coach Fatih Terim should not have too much difficulty picking his starting lineup. His tactics should be pretty straightforward as well. When Turkey has tried to defend at Euro 2008 they have struggled to impress. However, when they have pushed forward and pressured the opposition they have looked to be a far more dangerous team.

So even though there may be a temptation to defend in numbers and to wait for the one or two opportunities that might come their way, Turkey’s best chance to get the result they need to make it to the final is to attack Germany. Such an aggressive plan may backfire but it offers a better chance of success than sitting back and trying to absorb 90 minutes (or 120 minutes) of German pressure.

Any plan that encourages Germany to play most of the game in Turkey’s half of the pitch will only lead to set piece opportunities and the Germans are just to big, to strong and to well organized not to take the chances that will come their way.

Germany’s number one objective will be to concentrate on this match and not to allow their minds to wonder to a possible Sunday meeting against Spain or Russia. Unlike his Turkish counterpart Germany coach Joachim Low will have to give some thought to his starting eleven.

After missing a game against Portugal with a rib injury midfielder Torsten Frings is likely to be declared fit for this game. (Frings missed the World Cup semifinal against Italy two years ago and his absence was noticeable.) Coach Joachim Low compensated for his absence against Portugal by changing formation and moving from a conventional 4-4-2 to a 4-2-3-1.

The change served a dual purpose. It provided extra cover to the back four and offered a solution to the second striker question. Mario Gomez came into this tournament as one of the potential bright young things but has suffered a terrible run of form so far.

By going with Klose as a lone striker, Low was able to capitalize on the attacking instincts of Michael Ballack. Ballack played between Podolski and Schweinsteiger and three players figured significantly in Germany’s three goals.


Credit Check
Is Philipp Lahm the most under appreciated player in the Germany squad?


Comment of the Day
“It is because Germany can break your heart as easily as they might snap a dried-out twig. They do it as a matter of course. Sometimes it seems almost the equivalent of taking a breath. Ask Argentina, the spell-binding masters of the last World Cup, we thought, until they ran into Germany, and felt their life-blood draining away.

The Germans started as a laughing stock and finished in third place, their coach Jürgen Klinsmann and his successor Joachim Löw installed as national football icons alongside Franz Beckenbauer and Gerd Müller and the late Fritz Walter because they had shown the most valued talent in the football of the Fatherland – they showed that however unpromising the circumstances, they could make extraordinary things happen.

This is the history and the here and now of the German game the Turks confront tonight. It is the football of pragmatism, yes, but also of steel. It is football which dwarfs that of all rivals except Brazil and Italy.” – James Lawton in The Independent.


Stat Fact
“Bastian Schweinsteiger has a goal, an assist, a yellow card and a red card to his name at Euro 2008. The only other player to have achieved this feat is Denmark's Klaus Berggreen in 1984.” – BBC.


Match Report
Germany 3-2 Turkey

I####oal is scored at Euro 2008 and the worldwide television audience does not see it did it really happen? Unfortunately with the score at 1-1 we were reminded of how much we rely upon and expect from modern technology. This time it failed and we essentially missed a fantastic last eleven minutes that brought three goals. And so for millions around the globe the semi final was an anti-climax.

It was an erratic performance from Germany against a Turkish team that was never outclassed and for long periods of the game Turkey was by far the better side.

Full back Philipp Lahm was to be at the epicenter of the action as the game reached a rousing climax. With eleven minutes to go a Lahm cross found Klose about twelve yards out. Recber opted to come for the ball but never got close and the header found an empty net. At that point Germany must have thought that they had finally broken Turkey’s spirit.

But back came Turkey and after Sabri had skinned Lahm out on the touchline his low cross was deflected past Lehmann by Semih Senturk – 85th minute. And so the prospect of another game going to extra time seemed very real.

However, it was Lahm that popped up one more time to decide the game with only seconds remaining and send Germany to the final on Sunday. As Podolski dropped deep Sabri was pulled out of position. Lahm was played in by Thomas Hitzlsperger and opted to go for the nearside and fooled Recber who had anticipated the opposite. 

If Germany had any doubt that they would have to battle for a place in the final it was put to rest during the first 45 minutes.  Turkey driven on by Hamit Altintop, Kazim and Ugar Boral in midfield showed more desire and initiative than the favorites Germany.

It took over 20 minutes for Turkey to take the lead but before that they had gone close when Kazim struck the crossbar with Lehmann beaten and had created some other good opportunities.

The goal was scrappy but deserved. Kazim was again at the center of it when his shot rebounded off the bottom to a waiting Ugar Boral. As Lehmann struggled to regain bearings the Turkish midfield players shot nutmegged the German keeper and trickled over the line.

But Germany’s response was quick. Podolski was set free down the left side and his cross was met first time by Schweinsteiger who clipped his shot wide of Recber and into the corner of the net. But even then Turkey still enjoyed most of the possession on were a constant irritant to the German defense and midfield.

Quarter Final

Croatia v Turkey
Preview – Reaching the quarterfinal stage of the European Championships matches Croatia and Turkey’s best ever performances. For Croatia their previous appearance in the final eight came in 1996. They beat Turkey 1-0 (a late goal from Vlaovic) in the group stage before losing 2-1 to the eventual winners, Germany.

Four years later, Turkey last 2-0 to Portugal in the quarterfinals. In both cases Croatia and Turkey went on to enjoy great runs at the World Cup finals two years later. Both countries became surprise semifinalists and both finished third.

Only time will tell whether either or both can use Euro 2008 as a launching pad for further success in 2010. Both coaches will have more urgent matters on their mind. In the case of Slaven Bilic the biggest worry may be that very little has gone wrong so far.

Despite losing Eduardo da Silva to a broken leg before the tournament, Croatia has operated as a well oiled machine. The defense has been solid, Niko Kovac has provided an effective defensive shield in midfield, while Srna, Modric and Kranjcar have looked lively and effective behind the lone striker Olic.

Even after making mega changes to the starting eleven for the mean-nothing final game of group play against Poland, Croatia still won handily. Comparisons have already been made with the team of a decade ago. Perhaps this Croatian team will evolve into the best ever but it seems premature to compare this team against the likes of Asanovic, Prosinecki, Boban, Jarni and ####.

Bilic started the first game against Austria with two men up front but changed to a lone striker against Germany. The latter formation provided an extra man in midfield and allowed the likes of Kranjcar to attack from deep positions. Expect to see Bilic sticking with a 4-1-4-1 from here on.

We knew going into the competition that Turkey was unpredictable. However, in the three performances so far the word unpredictable gets no place close to what we have seen. On the back foot for most of the game against Switzerland they grabbed a late winning goal as the Swiss pushed forward.

Then came the dramatic finish against the Czech Republic. No one can doubt the fighting spirit of Turkey. But their performances have come at a price. The casualty list is extensive - defender Servet Cetin, Tumer Metin, Emre Gungor and Emre Belozoglu are all either definitely out or extremely doubtful. Suspensions also mean that goalkeeper Volkan Demirel and Mehmet Aurelio are unavailable.

Aurelio in particular will be badly missed. The Brazilian born defensive midfield player has been outstanding in the tournament. In goal we can anticipate that one of the heroes from 2002, Rustu Recber will step in.

Following the World Cup in 2002 Recber transferred to Barcelona but it proved to be an unhappy move. He returned to Turkish football after one season and now at 35 he he has been given another opportunity on the European stage.

The odds are stacked against Turkey and it will need a colossal performance to beat Croatia today.

Referee: Roberto Rosetti, linesmen: Alessandro Griselli, Paolo Calcagno (all Italy), fourth official: Manuel Mejuto (Spain)

Match Report

Croatia 1-1 Turkey (Turkey wins 3-1 on penalties)

If you ever want to show a player or a team why you should never give up, point them towards Turkey’s performances at Euro 2008. Each dramatic finish has topped the one before but you have to wonder how they can possibly beat this one.

After 119 minutes without a goal Klasnic took advantage of a mental error by Turkish goalkeeper Rustu Recber and looked to have put Croatia through to a semifinal meeting with Germany. Recber was caught out of his goal and was beaten to a loose ball by Modric.  The midfielder turned neatly and chipped the ball to a waiting Klasnic who was left in front of an unattended goal.

It was almost inconceivable that with only seconds left that Turkey could recover from such a death blow.  But recover they did and more. Recber pushed everyone forward and pumped a free kick into the Croatia penalty area.  The ball broke to Semih Senturk who had come on after 75 minutes and he lashed shot past an astonished Pletikosa.

It was then to penalty kicks and it was clear that Turkey held a clear psychological advantage. They had fought through a depleted starting lineup, suspensions and conceding a late goal in extra time and and while Turkey knew that they’d come back from a near death experience, Croatia knew that a lapse in concentration had let Turkey off the hook.

When Modric put the first penalty wide the writing was on the wall.  Of the four Croatia penalties only Srna scored while Turkey was successful with all three attempts.

Some may describe this game is drab, others as a game dominated by defenders. But Croatia could have built themselves a healthy lead before the halfway mark in the first 45 minutes.  But the combination of poor finishing-in particular a staggering miss from Olic- and some last-ditch defending from Turkey stopped Croatia from taking the lead. By the break Turkey had played their way back into the game and was beginning to edge Croatia.

The Croatian back four was lying deeper and the knock on effect was Olic as the lone striker was becoming increasingly isolated in attack.  Croatia was also allowing Turkey more space in front of the defense and although Turkey’s chances were restricted to some long-range shots there was a hint that it was only a matter of time before some chances inside the penalty box would come their way.

In the second half Croatia mixed their game up and tried to pick Olic out with some direct play. But it was clear that the game had settled into a defensive battle with both teams struggling to get behind the other’s defense.

And so Croatia is left to regret the loss of a fantastic opportunity for a rematch with Germany while an even more depleted Turkish side will line up in their first ever Euro semifinal next Wednesday.

Comment of the Day
“We have 15 footballers, two goalkeepers and we can make three substitutions. That is what we have.” – Turkey coach Fatih Terim.


Prediction Update
No update today as it is a time intensive process. I will post the leader board at the conclusion of the quarter finals. However, I can add that there are a lot of the leaders that are going to be down to only a couple of teams in the semis.

Group A continued
It took Switzerland nine attempts before finally making it to the European Championships finals. That was back in 1996 and they followed with another appearance in Portugal four years ago.


How they qualified
As a co-host the Swiss were spared the trauma of qualification.


The Coach
Kobi Kuhn succeeded a raft of foreign coaches (Uli Stielike, Roy Hodgson, Gilbert Gress and Enzo Trossero) when he took over the Swiss national team duties seven years ago and when he retires after this tournament he will be replaced by German Ottmar Hitzfeld. Kuhn controversially installed Alexander Frei as captain in the spring of 2007 after a very public falling out with Johann Vogel.


Key Players
Alexander Frei has spent a good part of this season injured and only recently returned to play for his club side Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. If he can regain his sharpness for the summer tournament the Swiss may benefit from the enforced rest of their top striker.

Arsenal’s Philippe Senderos’ frailties have been on show at the club level but he still has the confidence of his international coach. Tranquillo Barnetta of Bayer Leverkusen enjoyed an excellent 2006 World Cup in Germany although he did miss a penalty in the shoot-out loss to Ukraine.


Great Euro Memory
Their European Championship finals debut came in 1996 when they held host country England to a 1-1 draw. England led from an Alan Shearer goal early in the game but with seven minutes left Stuart Pearce was called for a handball in the penalty box and Kubilay Turkyilmaz equalized from the spot.


Synopsis
Switzerland comes into the tournament with all the advantages and disadvantages of co-hosting. No worries over qualifying but unrealistic expectations and few opportunities over the last two years for the team to be tested in competitive games.

The Swiss were knocked out of the 2006 World Cup without conceding a goal although how they achieved such a feat with Pascal Zuberbuhler in net can be considered as a modern-day miracle.

The team has mix of youth and experience although a number of players (Patrick Muller, Tranquillo Barnetta, and Frei) have struggled with injuries lately. Of the two host nations the Swiss have by far the better chance to move on to the last eight.


Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying
Drawn in Group 2 with Greece, Israel, Moldova, Latvia and Luxembourg.




Turkey made their European Championship Finals debut in 1996 but lost all three games. Four years later they lost in the last eight to Portugal by a score of 2-0.


How they qualified
It was topsy-turvy qualifying campaign for Turkey. Against all odds (including a ban on playing at home for part of the group stage) they started very well in Group C then hit a torrid streak at the midway point.

Just as they looked as if they had again blown their chance they recovered their nerve and finished seven points behind Greece and a point ahead of Norway. Hakan Sukur who has been left out of the squad for the finals was Turkey’s leading scorer with five goals. Tuncay Sanli and Nihat Kahveci each had three.


The Coach
Fatih Terim is in charge at the Euros for a second time having helped Turkey to England in 1996. After the ’96 tournament and for the next four years Terim held a Midas-touch with league titles and a UEFA Cup coming his way while in charge of Galatasaray.

A move to Serie A with Fiorentina and then AC Milan did not prove to be nearly as successful and a return to Galatasaray failed to rekindle past glories. After failing to make it to the 2006 World Cup finals a place in the last eight is probably the minimum he needs to keep his job.


Key Players
Nihat Kahveci has enjoyed a fantastic season with Villarreal in the Spanish league and looks to have put his injury woes behind. Small, mobile and with the instinct that only very good goal scorers have, Nihat could again become one of the most sought after strikers in Europe after this tournament.


Great Euro Memory
At Euro 2000 the final group B match found co host Belgium needing only a draw against Turkey to move on to the knock out stage. Despite going into the match winless in five finals games Turkey shocked the home side with a goal on the stroke of half time from Hakan Sukur and with twenty minutes left the talismanic striker repeated the feat and Turkey moved on with Italy to the quarter final stage.



Synopsis
Turkey and host nation Switzerland have “history” from a 2006 World Cup qualifying play-off game so when they face each other there might be fireworks. A hit-or-miss qualifying campaign makes it very difficult to assess Turkey’s chances. On top form they could be a great dark horse; on other days they may struggle to win a game.


Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying
Drawn in Group 5 along with Spain, Belgium, Bosnia Herzegovina, Armenia and Estonia.



Part One - History and background

Part Two – Portugal and the Czech Republic


Part 4 coming up on Saturday - Austria and Croatia.

Predictions Part 10 - June 6