Nick Harris on Mike Ashley’s takeover bid for Newcastle. Is there any Newcastle fan opposed to this? I doubt it. Two teams that I thought would be worth buying outside of the top four would be Newcastle and Manchester City.
An extract from Lisbon Lion Bobby Lennox’s autobiography.
Where to start this week? Seeing that Milan won the Champions League and that they are involved in the battle to stay in Serie A – they play relegation threatened Reggina – we will start in Italy.
With the final round on Sunday five teams are battling to avoid the final relegation spot. Here is a rundown in order of the team most likely to step on the trapdoor.
Siena (37 points) plays Lazio and if they lose they will be relegated. A draw could keep them in Serie A if either Catania or Reggina lose. Siena was docked a point for irregular tax payments and come Sunday night they may rue their run-in with the taxman. Siena has only one win in their last five matches and they must be hoping that Lazio - who has already secured a Champions League spot for next season - have already started their holidays.
Reggina (37 points) is surely hoping that Milan will lack motivation after winning the Champions League on Wednesday. Reggina pulled off a stunning comeback last weekend against Empoli. Down 3-0 they fought back to draw 3-3. Reggina has two wins and six draws in their last eight games and if it wasn’t for an 11-point penalty they would be sitting in a comfortable mid-table position. Reggina needs to match Siena’s result in order to stay up.
The only head-to-head battle of relegation threatened teams is Catania (38 points) and Chievo (39 points) and it will be played at the neutral site of Bologna. The winner of this game is definitely secure. However, a draw combined with Siena and Reggina wins would relegate Catania. The same fate is in store should Catania lose and the other two take a point each. Since the ill-fated match against Palermo that resulted in the murder of a policeman outside of the Catania stadium the Sicilian club has picked up only 8 points out of a possible 42.
On the other hand Chievo (39 points) has picked it up lately with only one loss in the last six games. A draw is enough for Chievo although a loss combined with wins by Siena and Reggina and a draw for Parma would mean some unhappy donkeys.
Parma (39 points) and Claudio Ranieri need only a point from Empoli and after suffering only two losses in their last 14 matches they would appear to be well positioned to do so. In fact they might even survive a loss given that in order to be relegated Reggina and Siena both need to win and Catania needs to at least draw with Chievo.
In Spain the focus is at the top end of the table with Real Madrid and Barcelona both playing on Saturday and Sevilla on Sunday. Talk of revenge will be prevalent as Barcelona takes on Getafe the side that knocked them out of the Copa del Rey. Barcelona is the only team in La Liga with an undefeated record at home while no team in the top 12 in Spain has a poorer away record than Getafe – only 5 wins and 18 points.
Getafe did however administer a 5-1 spanking last weekend to Espanyol in Barcelona. If Getafe is to pull off a major surprise then they are probably going to have to score at least a couple of goals given that Barcelona has scored in every home game this season in La Liga.
Next weekend it is the Barcelona derby while the season concludes with the reigning champions visiting already relegated Gimnastic.
Real Madrid has won eight of their last nine matches but in the last three games they have left it late. Wins against Sevilla, Espanyol and Recreativo have all been secured with progressively later goals - 85th, 89th, and 90th. For a team that has struggled to score goals this season, Real has hit a purple patch with 14 coming in the last four games.
However, they have also conceded eight. Real’s opponents this weekend Deportivo La Coruna has the third poorest away record in La Liga with only 13 points (2 wins) and have only scored 9 goals. After this match Real has Real Zaragoza away and Mallorca at home to finish the season.
Sevilla showed a lot of character to come back from a goal down to beat Deportivo last week and on paper they face a stiff test against Real Zaragoza. However, Zaragoza’s challenge has faded and they have not won consecutive matches since last November. They also only won once away from home since mid-December. Mallorca away and Villarreal at home await Sevilla.
A late charging Villarreal (5 straight wins) might bring to an end any faint hope Valencia may harbour of a La Liga title. Villarreal is only a point behind Atletico Madrid and pushing hard for a UEFA Cup spot. Valencia centre back Roberto Ayala has already signed for Villarreal for next season and in the last two days alone Shevchenko, Makelele and Heinze have all been linked with possible moves to El Madrigal.
In Scotland and Germany cups will be decided. Relegated Dunfermline will be making a third appearance in a final since 2004 and all against Celtic. They will hoping to make it third time lucky after losing both the CIS Cup and Scottish Cup finals. Dunfermline won the Scottish Cup twice in the sixties and beat Celtic on route both times. All in this will be the fourth time Celtic and Dunfermline will have faced each other in a Scottish Cup final.
Celtic finished the league season sluggishly with three losses in last four league games and five of their six league season losses came in the final nine league games. In contrast Dunfermline have had half of their six league wins this season come in their last four league games and have lost only three of their last nine. But still there was a 58 point gap between the two teams come the final league table.
Domestic doubles are not normally frequent events but it doesn’t seen that way in German where for the last four seasons it appears to have been a case of win one and get the other one free. The last four seasons Bayern Munich three times and Werder Bremen have all done the double. Stuttgart has a chance to make it five when they play Nurnberg in the German Cup final on Saturday.
Both teams have won the Cup three times. Stuttgart’s last German Cup win was in 1997 and Nurnberg’s in 1962. Nurnberg finished sixth in the Bundesliga, their best performance since 1988 when they were one place higher. They beat Stuttgart 3-0 on the opening day of the season and again 4-1 after the winter break. Nuremberg coach Hans Meyer is trying to become the first coach to win cup competitions in both East Germany and Germany.
On Monday there is the Premiership play off that is worth zillions of dollars – just pick a number everyone one else does. Derby versus West Brom – I’ll go for West Brom.
The most important league game of the weekend is in Portugal with Benfica against Porto. Sporting Lisbon blew the league race open when they went to Oporto almost two weeks ago and beat the home team 1-0. Benfica have the best home record in Portugal with a draw in ten games the only blemish and they currently trail Porto by one point. Benfica have to play Sporting once more in the league this season – April 29. Portugal cut the league back to sixteen teams this season so although each team has only played 22 games they are only eight left to play.
Lyon are looking to for the first half of a league and league cup double – something they never accomplished – when they face Bordeaux in the League Cup Final. Lyon won the trophy in 2001 which was the year before they set off on their run of consecutive league wins. Bordeaux won the Cup the following season and it remains their last piece of silverware. Interestingly Juninho of Lyon has never scored a goal in a game against Bordeaux.
It looks as if Bayern Munich needs to beat Schalke in order to retain any interest in the Bundesliga title. With only eight games to go and trailing Schalke by nine points and Werder Bremen by six, three points would appear to be mandatory. The good news for Bayern fans is that in thirty-six Bundesliga visits Schalke have only five wins and five draws to show for their efforts.
With both teams facing Champions League action this coming week it will be interesting to see how Milan and Roma line up in the Olympic Stadium on Saturday. Roma are sitting with a comfortable nine point lead on rivals Lazio – surely one of the over achievers in the European leagues this season – who are in third place. Milan have slowly but surely worked their up Serie A and are now within four points of a slumping Palermo side for the last Champions League spot and Milan has a game in hand.
The Barcelona versus Deportivo La Coruna game would be more interesting if the game wasn’t in the Nou Camp. Deportivo La Coruna have an abysmal away record having won only twice on their travels this season although both came relatively recently. Goal scoring has been Deportivo’s problem with only 20 goals in the “for” column – only seven have come away from the Riazor. Barcelona have yet to lose to any opposition in the bottom half of the table.
The best in the premiership would look to be Liverpool vs. Arsenal in the early Saturday game while free scoring Tottenham and Reading on Sunday also looks promising. In the battle to avoid relegation Charlton have the opportunity to pull Wigan into the battle and reduce the gap between the two teams to three points. Some things to note going into this game are that Wigan has yet to come back and win a game in which they have conceded the first goal and they have lost 19 points this season from winning positions – the worst in the Premiership
Sheffield United could give themselves a massive lift if they can beat a slumping Bolton side which has lost their last three games. The bad news is United last picked up a point on the road over three months ago. Here is Sheffield United run-in which at least gives them control of their fate - Newcastle (h), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Charlton (a), Watford (h), Aston Villa (a) and Wigan (h).
For every cloud there is a silver lining and in the case of the Italian scandal you have to conclude that La Liga has been the greatest beneficiary. The strong have become even stronger.
If you believe the UEFA co-efficient rankings clubs from Spain lead Europe by a significant margin and if you don’t, then just look at their record in European competition in the last seven seasons. Spanish clubs have won three Champions League titles during that time, as well as being runners-up twice. In the UEFA Cup Valencia and Sevilla have won the competition while Alaves finished as runners-up.
Now with the arrival of Gianluca Zambrotta and Lilian Thuram at Barcelona, and Fabio Cannavaro and Emerson at Real Madrid, Spain’s big two look set to dominate the domestic league once more and again challenge for the Champions League.
Zambrotta and Thuram will strengthen a back four that looked to be Barcelona’s weakest link last year. Meanwhile the arrival of Eidur Gudjohnsen to replace Henrik Larsson might turn out to be an inspirational move. Gudjohnsen may not score 20 goals this season but his intelligent running and ability to play just behind the main striker will be invaluable coming off the bench. Given that we are likely to see a full season of Lionel Messi - if he stays injury free - Barcelona has the look of a side that is significantly stronger than last year.
If Fabio Capello - more collateral damage from the Moggi affair – had not arrived at the Bernabeu then I would be predicting a cakewalk for Barcelona. However, his record of success over the years is so impressive that Real Madrid may have to budget for a celebration this season. Real fans need no reminding that the club has not undergone a barren spell of three years without a major trophy since before the arrival of Alfredo di Stefano in 1953.
Mahamadou Diarra signed from Lyon earlier this week, and with the addition of Emerson and Cannavaro, the spine of the side will be much stronger. It will show in a reduction in the goals conceded statistic. In the midfield and attacking areas the question is who plays and who will be left to sulk on the bench?
With two wide positions in midfield and two up front available Capello has to choose between the likes of David Beckham, Guti, Van Nistelrooy, Ronaldo, Raúl, Robinho, Antonio Cassano and Julio Baptista. Milan seems poised to take Ronaldo to the San Siro and Spurs have renewed their interest in Julio Baptista, so that might be a problem or two less for the boss.
Valencia and Villarreal appear to be in the best position to challenge Spain’s version of the Old Firm. Long serving defender Amedeo Carboni is now the Valencia technical director and he has been a busy man. Pablo Aimar was sold to Real Zaragoza while full back Fabio Aurelio joined former Valencia boss Rafa Benitez at Anfield. Fernando Morientes has moved in the opposite direction, Asier Del Horno has returned to Spain from a one year sojurn at “Chez Money is No Object” and midfielder David Silva recalled after a loan spell at Celta Vigo. Both players scored in Champions League qualifying during this week as Valencia moved into the group stage.
The crown jewel, however, is the securing of winger Joaquin Sanchez from Real Betis. If the oft-injured left winger Vicente can remain injury free then Valencia could be an exciting side to watch this season. The acquisition of Francesco Tavano from Empoli is another interesting move given the failure of Italians Fiore, Corradi and Di Vaio just a couple of seasons ago. Few Italians have made the move to Spain over the years and even fewer have proven successful. At 27 Tavano has been a late bloomer and it has only been in the last two years that he has rattled in goals on a regular basis.
Villarreal looked to be in a position to turn an early exit from European competition into a positive by focusing totally on domestic competitions. However this summer, there has been - and still is - a transfer cloud hanging over the Madrigal. South Americans Marcos Senna and Juan Pablo Sorin have been on the trading block but have still to move. Former Arsenal midfield man Robert Pires went down with torn cruciate knee ligaments in the pre-season and might miss the whole season. However, if Nihat Kahveci can regain the form of 2002/03 when he almost led Real Sociedad to surprise La Liga title, Villarreal may yet prosper this year.
Other sides have strengthened their squads over the summer with Sevilla (Christian Poulsen, Andreas Hinkel and Javier Chevanton), and Atletico Madrid (Sergi Aguero, George Seitaridis, Costinha, Mariano Pernia) the most prominent. Atletico, a side that has promised so much, but delivered so little over the last decade, also changed manager – although Atletico not changing manager would be more newsworthy – and former Mexican boss Javier Aguirre is now the occupier of the manager’s office that doubles as a revolving door.
For what it’s worth here's how I see La Liga come the end of the season. The 2005/06 position is in the brackets.
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites.
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