Semi Final Preview Germany vs. Turkey A late winning goal against Switzerland was regarded as a fine piece of opportunism, while two goals in the last three minutes against the Czech Republic in the next game was considered to be remarkable.
Then came an equalizing goal with virtually the last kick of the ball in extra time against Croatia – after going a goal behind only seconds before – followed by a dramatic penalty shoot-out win.
Each performance has topped the one before both in terms of dramatic effect and achievement. Now facing the pre-tournament favorites Germany with a depleted squad, can Turkey do it one more time?
The bookies do not think so and are giving odds of around 7/1 that Turkey will be able to maintain their phenomenal run in Wednesday’s semifinal. It is certainly not the first time that Turkey have been cast as the underdogs at this tournament but they have also never gone into a game with such an under strength team.
Tuncay Sanli, Arda Turan and Emre Asik and first choice keeper Volkan Demirel will all be missing through suspension. Emre Belozoglu, defenders Servet Cetin and Emre Gungor, as well as Tumer Metin and striker Nihat Kahveci who are all either definitely out or are extremely doubtful because of injury. Defensive midfielder Mehmet Aurelio who missed the dramatic win against Croatia returns after serving a one-game suspension and constitutes the only bright spot.
Coach Fatih Terim should not have too much difficulty picking his starting lineup. His tactics should be pretty straightforward as well. When Turkey has tried to defend at Euro 2008 they have struggled to impress. However, when they have pushed forward and pressured the opposition they have looked to be a far more dangerous team.
So even though there may be a temptation to defend in numbers and to wait for the one or two opportunities that might come their way, Turkey’s best chance to get the result they need to make it to the final is to attack Germany. Such an aggressive plan may backfire but it offers a better chance of success than sitting back and trying to absorb 90 minutes (or 120 minutes) of German pressure.
Any plan that encourages Germany to play most of the game in Turkey’s half of the pitch will only lead to set piece opportunities and the Germans are just to big, to strong and to well organized not to take the chances that will come their way.
Germany’s number one objective will be to concentrate on this match and not to allow their minds to wonder to a possible Sunday meeting against Spain or Russia. Unlike his Turkish counterpart Germany coach Joachim Low will have to give some thought to his starting eleven.
After missing a game against Portugal with a rib injury midfielder Torsten Frings is likely to be declared fit for this game. (Frings missed the World Cup semifinal against Italy two years ago and his absence was noticeable.) Coach Joachim Low compensated for his absence against Portugal by changing formation and moving from a conventional 4-4-2 to a 4-2-3-1.
The change served a dual purpose. It provided extra cover to the back four and offered a solution to the second striker question. Mario Gomez came into this tournament as one of the potential bright young things but has suffered a terrible run of form so far.
By going with Klose as a lone striker, Low was able to capitalize on the attacking instincts of Michael Ballack. Ballack played between Podolski and Schweinsteiger and three players figured significantly in Germany’s three goals.
Credit Check Is Philipp Lahm the most under appreciated player in the Germany squad?
Comment of the Day “It is because Germany can break your heart as easily as they might snap a dried-out twig. They do it as a matter of course. Sometimes it seems almost the equivalent of taking a breath. Ask Argentina, the spell-binding masters of the last World Cup, we thought, until they ran into Germany, and felt their life-blood draining away.
The Germans started as a laughing stock and finished in third place, their coach Jürgen Klinsmann and his successor Joachim Löw installed as national football icons alongside Franz Beckenbauer and Gerd Müller and the late Fritz Walter because they had shown the most valued talent in the football of the Fatherland – they showed that however unpromising the circumstances, they could make extraordinary things happen.
This is the history and the here and now of the German game the Turks confront tonight. It is the football of pragmatism, yes, but also of steel. It is football which dwarfs that of all rivals except Brazil and Italy.” – James Lawton in The Independent.
Stat Fact “Bastian Schweinsteiger has a goal, an assist, a yellow card and a red card to his name at Euro 2008. The only other player to have achieved this feat is Denmark's Klaus Berggreen in 1984.” – BBC.
Match Report Germany 3-2 Turkey
I####oal is scored at Euro 2008 and the worldwide television audience does not see it did it really happen? Unfortunately with the score at 1-1 we were reminded of how much we rely upon and expect from modern technology. This time it failed and we essentially missed a fantastic last eleven minutes that brought three goals. And so for millions around the globe the semi final was an anti-climax.
It was an erratic performance from Germany against a Turkish team that was never outclassed and for long periods of the game Turkey was by far the better side.
Full back Philipp Lahm was to be at the epicenter of the action as the game reached a rousing climax. With eleven minutes to go a Lahm cross found Klose about twelve yards out. Recber opted to come for the ball but never got close and the header found an empty net. At that point Germany must have thought that they had finally broken Turkey’s spirit.
But back came Turkey and after Sabri had skinned Lahm out on the touchline his low cross was deflected past Lehmann by Semih Senturk – 85th minute. And so the prospect of another game going to extra time seemed very real.
However, it was Lahm that popped up one more time to decide the game with only seconds remaining and send Germany to the final on Sunday. As Podolski dropped deep Sabri was pulled out of position. Lahm was played in by Thomas Hitzlsperger and opted to go for the nearside and fooled Recber who had anticipated the opposite.
If Germany had any doubt that they would have to battle for a place in the final it was put to rest during the first 45 minutes. Turkey driven on by Hamit Altintop, Kazim and Ugar Boral in midfield showed more desire and initiative than the favorites Germany.
It took over 20 minutes for Turkey to take the lead but before that they had gone close when Kazim struck the crossbar with Lehmann beaten and had created some other good opportunities.
The goal was scrappy but deserved. Kazim was again at the center of it when his shot rebounded off the bottom to a waiting Ugar Boral. As Lehmann struggled to regain bearings the Turkish midfield players shot nutmegged the German keeper and trickled over the line.
But Germany’s response was quick. Podolski was set free down the left side and his cross was met first time by Schweinsteiger who clipped his shot wide of Recber and into the corner of the net. But even then Turkey still enjoyed most of the possession on were a constant irritant to the German defense and midfield.
Another break day and so an opportunity to answer some questions.
Danielgregg – Something I've noticed about this tournament, don't recall if it's something unique or not: there've been so many records broken. Croatia broke some kind of record when they beat Germany, Turkey broke their record against the Czechs, the Dutch beat their 30-year record against Italy, and Italy beat their 30-year record against France, and now Spain banished their longstanding record against not only Italy, but their June 22 jinx.
You probably don't put too much store in these records. I just think it's been interesting to see so many games one after another with pundits pointing out these records before almost every game, and then they go and promptly break them--so consistently.
Bobby – There have been a good number of these instances. I think it would need a statistician to provide more intelligent comment. But you also have to consider that international match ups don’t happen every year or sometimes even every second year and so extended records of 20 or 30 years may only be less than a dozen games. Something that happens in domestic league leagues
LHJS - I hope one day the America's can combine to form a great tournament like EURO's. 8 groups, 5 or 6 teams per group, winner and second place team gets an invite. Every country between Chile and Canada would have a chance. I think it would be great fun for all soccer fans. A nightmare for police but still as we see on TV it could be great.
Bobby – This is something that comes up on a pretty regular basis. I can’t see either Federation amalgamating for the purposes of World Cup qualifying but maybe there is just a small chance that they could get together for a regional championship.
Here is a précis of an article I wrote for “WSC – When Saturday Comes” back in April 2002 just after the Gold Cup of that year.
“……The more astute readers will have noticed that South Korea and Ecuador are not Central American, North American or Caribbean counties. Since it’s inception in 1991 the Gold Cup has invited guest teams to compete, not something that lends credibility to the competition. It’s simple: when you invite outside teams to enter a regional championship it’s no longer a regional championship.
Can anyone imagine the European Championship inviting Brazil, Argentina and Cameroon to fly in for a game or two? In the past we’ve seen Peru, Colombia and Brazil turn up along with South Korea and Ecuador. To date no guest has won the Cup but two have reached the Final.
This time around only Mexico drew well in the early stages and after they lost in the quarter final to South Korea, average attendance dropped dramatically. Despite the USA reaching the final where they beat Costa Rica 2-0, the last four games in the competition attracted less than 22,000 fans. Cup organizers were quick to point out that the Cup was up against the National Hockey League all-star game and the Superbowl weekend. It begs the question - why would you schedule the Gold Cup against these events in the first place?
The problems facing the Gold Cup are strikingly similar to those facing CONMEBOL and the Copa America. Copa America with the ten member countries of CONMEBOL has to invite two guest countries in order to get to a workable number. Honduras, Mexico, Japan, the USA and Costa Rica have all taken part in the Copa in recent years. There is, however, a solution – the Pan American Cup.
Never heard of it you say? That’s because it’s time to drop both the Copa America and the Gold Cup and start a new sixteen team tournament to be held once every four years with no guest teams.
To ease fixture congestion the tournament could be scheduled just before or just after the European Championship. A Pan American Cup makes sense for everyone, including the long suffering fans.
From a CONCACAF prospective it gives their member countries the badly needed challenge of better opponents. The participation of Brazil and Argentina would increase television revenue in the US and generate greater media exposure throughout North America.
With the imminent demise of the ill fated and vastly unpopular Confederations Cup the need to identify regional champions no longer exists. If the Pan American Cup could live up to half of its potential, the qualifying competitions would generate interest.
By holding the tournament two years after the World Cup, qualification standings in each confederation could form the basis of awarding automatic spots in the Pan American Cup, perhaps the top five finishers in each. As tradition dictates, the previous winner would get a bye along with the host country.
With four spots remaining, three could come from a Central and South American qualifying competition while the remaining spot would be from a North America and Caribbean tournament.
Is there hope that CONMEBOL and CONCACAF would give up some of their power and merge the two troubled competitions? From a CONCACAF prospective they run a competition of no value, so they have little to lose by making a move. CONMEBOL’s view is likely to be different given the Copa America is the oldest international tournament in the world.
However, FIFA has already told the South Americans that an eighteen game World Cup qualifying competition can’t continue if the Copa America is held every two years. The South American qualifying group generates tremendous interest and a great deal of money.
It’s not something the CONMEBOL countries want to lose so the status quo may not be an option. The alternatives are changing the Copa America to a four year format or make a bold move and go for a Pan American Cup.”
Shmish - What's your take on the criticisms that are being leveled on coaches such as MVB and Donadoni? It's predictable that Aragones or Loew will also be condemned by media and bloggers. I think all of these men seem to have done a good job, but I'm not a soccer analyst.
Whether a team is outplayed or outcoached, do we always have to point fingers at the coaches? Surely as Bobby suggests, we should pay attention and offer praise to the winners, when praise is due. One man's or team's success doesn't necessarily equate to another's failure.
Bobby – When a team loses the coach more times than not becomes a lightning rod for criticism. At club level there is almost always a game coming within a week or so and the coach and team have an escape route. That’s rarely the case at international level with friendlies and competition spread out.
Coaches know the “rules” when they sign on as unfair as they may be. But each defeat produces knee-jerk reactions from the fans and the media and the pressure builds on the national associations for a change to be made. Without having lived through it I doubt many of us can truly understand the constant pressure that coaches all operate under.
So much of it comes down to managing expectations going in, unfortunately as fans most of us have expectations that are unrealistic. I’m waiting for the day when a fan admits he would have picked a different team than the one the coach did and because the team won its obvious the coach knows what he’s doing and has not lost the plot!
Terry 63 - Hey Bobby, we're missing the Tartan Army at these major tourneys. Start checking the census rolls to see if there are any Scots with Brazilian grandmothers. Of course...I meant to say Brazilians with *Scottish* grandmas! But either way couldn't hurt.
Bobby – At least Scotland has shown some improvement over the last couple years. Under Berti Vogts a team made up of Brazilian grandmothers might have been a better option. That’s what you meant wasn’t it?
ZUCO2 - I was watching the FSR yesterday and I heard Derek say that there was 9 minutes of added time in a qualifying game in Asia. Shouldn't FIFA have a rule that allows referees to give a certain amount of stoppage time? A sort of limit that shouldn't be broken?
Bobby – So what you do in the situation where there was a serious injury and possibly even a couple of serious injuries? Or the game is delayed because of a streaker? It is up to the referee to judge how much stoppage time should be played I don’t see any benefit by capping it – and in fact I think the opposite is true, it would lead to more abuse.
Exponents - Bobby, off topic, but let's say the USMNT needed a new coach (I think you'll agree that they do)...who should they try to get? Of course this begs the question of who would actually want to coach the USMNT.
Bobby – No, I actually don’t agree. To date Bradley has won the only competition the United States has entered since he became coach (Gold Cup) so why would you be looking to replace him?
Rowdies33 - I haven't seen much heat on Van Basten for his tactics during the game. RVP played on the right flank where he has played before in this tourney, but he was always looking for the cutback and Heitinga wasn't getting forward so there was no width on the right and then by not bringing Robben in on the left there was no presence going forward on the left to stretch the field.
Given the difficulties of set pieces for the Russian defense, wouldn't crosses from wide positions have likely given them problems? Of course, the Russians dominated the play and perhaps nothing changes, but it seemed like the Dutch offense was basically using 1/2-3/4 of the width of the field making the Russians defensive pressure much easier to employ. Thoughts?
Bobby – It might be a bit pointless turning up the heat up on van Baston given that we all knew he was finished with the Netherlands after this tournament. You do make valid points however.
But the problems that the Russians were experiencing from set pieces were coming from in swinging free kicks on the left. Robbin would be delivering more conventional out swinging crosses with his left foot so I’m not sure the two would necessarily be connected. I was surprised that the Dutch did not try and force the Russian full backs to defend more and instead allowed them to attack almost at will.
I think the brilliance of Hiddink’s strategy was to counter the counterattack by pinning the Dutch so deep and not giving them time on the ball that they are unable to use the counterattack tactic that had been so lethal in the group stage.
LHJS - I almost forgot, Bobby did I catch Carlos?
Bobby –Carlos picked up nine points in the quarterfinal round and has 37 points. However, he only has one team left and that is Spain. He has Spain down as beaten finalists.
RINGO - Do those who predicted the third place game lose points?
Bobby – No, they just have to suffer the public embarrassment of adding games that don’t exist.
Comment of the Day
“I bumped into Howard Webb, the English referee, at Zurich Airport last Friday. He was on his way back to Manchester, having not been retained for the knockout stages of Euro 2008, after his controversial decision in the final minutes of the match between Austria and Poland. Webb was no different to a lot of other Englishmen at leading tournaments, really, in that he was eliminated by penalties.” - Martin Samuel in The Times.
Stat of the Day 1: Number of the past 52 goals in the tournament to have come from a defender — Christian Panucci - From Bill Edgar of The Times.
Quarter Final Netherlands vs. Russia Preview - Guus Hiddink is looking to continue his fantastic run at major tournaments. He took the Netherlands and South Korea to the last four at World Cups in 1998 and 2002 and Australia to the last sixteen two summers ago in Germany. If he can take his young Russian side to the last four at Euro 2008 it will be a match for any of his previous achievements.
To reach the semi final Russia has to beat the Netherlands and players that Hiddink has more than a passing knowledge of. The teams have reached this stage in very different ways but both could be regarded as surprises based on their preliminary qualifying performances.
Russia seemed to have lost their chance when they lost away to Israel after hitting the post late in the game and then conceding a devastating winner to Israel only seconds later. They were left having to beat Andorra in their last game and praying for a win by Croatia at Wembley.
Despite having already qualified Croatia did beat England and Russia stumbled to a 1-0 win against tiny Andorra. Eighteen goals in twelve games was not overly impressive considering that the group included the likes of Andorra and Estonia. First and third place Croatia and England scored considerably more goals.
The Netherlands qualified as runners up to Romania and only a point ahead of Bulgaria. However, the one point gap is not a fair reflection of the degree of difficulty as the Dutch wrapped up a qualifying spot with two games to go.
But a lacks of goals was a common connection between Russia and Netherlands. The Dutch only scored fifteen goals in 12 games and struggled to 1-0 wins over Luxembourg twice.
There was no hint of the type of football we have seen over the last two weeks from either of these sides. Goals have flowed from the Dutch through devastating counter attacks executed at speed combined with lethal finishing.
Ruud van Nistelrooy has led the attack magnificently while Sneijder and van der Vaart who have generally operated just behind him have both enjoyed spectacular tournaments.
The defense has confounded critics having only conceded one goal to date. Based on their three performances and pedigree the Dutch come into this game as strong favourites.
Few would have thought that Russia would be in this position after an opening game loss to Spain. But the 4-1 scoreline was not a fair reflection of the play. Russia was severely punished (particularly by David Villa) for some sloppy defensive play while they were unable to take advantage of some less than stellar defending by Spain. In truth the game could have finished 5-3 or 5-4.
Since then Hiddink has tinkered with his back four (or back two as the full backs push forward) but has remained commited to Russia playing an aggressive, attacking and entertaining form of football. The return of Arshavin for the third game against Swede and his performance garnered the headlines but there were a number of other fine performances that day that bode well for the fixture against Netherlands.
Denis Kolodin has settled down at the centre of the Russian defence after a disasterous start against Spain. Zhirkov playing has a left back (he can play anyplace on the left side) is a fantastic player to watch while the other full back Anyukov seems to spend more time in the opposition penalty area than his own. In midfield Semak, Zyryanov and Bilyaletdinov have all caught the eye.
However, Russia does seem to missing a reliable striker. Roman Pavlyuchenko came on to score twice against England in Moscow and has scored twice at Euro 2008 but he does not score enough given the chances that come his way.
Referee: Lubos Michel, assistants: Roman Slysko, Martin Balko (all Slovakia), fourth official: Massimo Busacca (Switzerland)
Netherland 1-3 Russia (After extra time) I know it’s not new or original but I’m going to say it anyway “the Russians are coming, the Russians are coming.” And in the process they are playing some fantastic football. We got to see an additional 30 minutes of it today but in truth Russia was so far ahead of the Netherlands that it should not have needed extra time.
The Dutch that had being so lethal in the group stage was blunted by a Russian midfield of Zyryanov, Semak and Semshov but this performance had nothing to do with negating Dutch strengths. It was about Russia playing to their own strengths.
And their strengths where a pleasure to behold. No frightened through football here. Composure on the ball, constantly working hard to provide an option to teammates in possession, beautifully timed runs and craftily struck passes. It was all on display and you were left wanting more. The only thing that was missing was a ruthless streak in front of goal during the first 90 minutes.
Russia took the initiative right from the kickoff and had the Netherlands on the back foot for most of the first half. It to the Dutch almost half an hour to mount any kind of sustained pressure and ironically it nearly cost them a goal. Russia was able to counter attack and the end result was a magnificent save by Edwin van der Sar from an Andrei Arshavin (does he remind anyone else of Michael Ladrup?) shot. The Dutch goalkeeper was called into action again shortly after and made another fine save this time after a long-range effort from center back Kolodin.
As half time drew near there was some encouragement for Dutch fans as Russia started togive away the ball more frequently. Nevertheless half time arrived without a goal. But within 10 minutes of the restart Russia was a goal up. Russia had been relentless in attacking down the left side and this time the ball was fed out to Semak alone on the left wing.
He swung in an inviting cross and Pavlyuchenko timed his run beautifully to beat the Dutch marker and Russia was a goal up. The Dutch were forced to push forward but Russia looked like the team more likely to score on the counter. But despite numerous chances and as the game appeared to to be entering the closing stages there was still only a one goal separating the teams.
The most consistent threat from the Netherlands had come from set pieces and from a free kick out on the left side they scored the goal that forced extra time. A deliciously inviting cross from Sneijder was swung in, Ignashevich was caught on the wrong side of Ruud van Nistelrooy and the Real Madrid striker stooped low to head home.
It was a goal that must’ve brought contradictory feelings to the neutrals watching. On one hand a Russian win that was truly deserved had been hauled from their grasp; conversely we had another 30 minutes of wonderful football to look forward to.
In the past Russian teams would have folded in the face of such adversity and injustice but not this one. They continued to dominate the extra 30 minutes and not surprisingly it was Arshavin who finally killed the Netherlands off.
He set up the winner for substitute Torbinski and then administered the coup de grace as he drilled the ball through the legs of Edwin van der Sar. A deserved win for Russia and the Netherlands again prove the early accolades to be premature.
Note: As the media jump on the Arshavin bandwagon regular readers of the blog will not be surprised at his impact. Back in the fall(?) I think it was craigy_f who first brought him to everyone’s attention when Zenit St. Petersburg played Everton in the UEFA Cup.
Comment of the Day “Much has been made of Van Basten's Holland rediscovering the joys of total football, but that is misleading. Yes, they are fluid and good to watch, but they are a more direct, counter-attacking side than their forebears of 30 years ago. Russia, arguably, given their commitment to attack, are rather closer in ethos to Michels' side, but the resemblance is largely superficial.
For one thing, neither side operates with a libero; for another, neither plays in the 4-3-3 (or, more accurately, 1-3-3-3) shape Johan Cruyff always insisted was essential for total football.
The context, equally, is very different. Part of the reason for the impact of Michels' and Lobaonvskyi's sides were that they were pressing and playing an aggressive offside trap in an era when nobody else was.
Everybody presses now. In their commitment to fluidity Russia and the Netherlands can probably claim to play a form of the game as close to total football as is possible in the modern age, but it should not be forgotten that for Russia that means pursuing their own tradition as much as adapting their approach to suit the heritage of their manager.” – Jonathan Wilson.
Prediction Update Not many picked Turkey while a good number of you had Croatia reaching the semi final. I have a feeling that the prediction league is going to be very close at the conclusion of the quarter finals.
Croatia v Turkey Preview – Reaching the quarterfinal stage of the European Championships matches Croatia and Turkey’s best ever performances. For Croatia their previous appearance in the final eight came in 1996. They beat Turkey 1-0 (a late goal from Vlaovic) in the group stage before losing 2-1 to the eventual winners, Germany.
Four years later, Turkey last 2-0 to Portugal in the quarterfinals. In both cases Croatia and Turkey went on to enjoy great runs at the World Cup finals two years later. Both countries became surprise semifinalists and both finished third.
Only time will tell whether either or both can use Euro 2008 as a launching pad for further success in 2010. Both coaches will have more urgent matters on their mind. In the case of Slaven Bilic the biggest worry may be that very little has gone wrong so far.
Despite losing Eduardo da Silva to a broken leg before the tournament, Croatia has operated as a well oiled machine. The defense has been solid, Niko Kovac has provided an effective defensive shield in midfield, while Srna, Modric and Kranjcar have looked lively and effective behind the lone striker Olic.
Even after making mega changes to the starting eleven for the mean-nothing final game of group play against Poland, Croatia still won handily. Comparisons have already been made with the team of a decade ago. Perhaps this Croatian team will evolve into the best ever but it seems premature to compare this team against the likes of Asanovic, Prosinecki, Boban, Jarni and ####.
Bilic started the first game against Austria with two men up front but changed to a lone striker against Germany. The latter formation provided an extra man in midfield and allowed the likes of Kranjcar to attack from deep positions. Expect to see Bilic sticking with a 4-1-4-1 from here on.
We knew going into the competition that Turkey was unpredictable. However, in the three performances so far the word unpredictable gets no place close to what we have seen. On the back foot for most of the game against Switzerland they grabbed a late winning goal as the Swiss pushed forward.
Then came the dramatic finish against the Czech Republic. No one can doubt the fighting spirit of Turkey. But their performances have come at a price. The casualty list is extensive - defender Servet Cetin, Tumer Metin, Emre Gungor and Emre Belozoglu are all either definitely out or extremely doubtful. Suspensions also mean that goalkeeper Volkan Demirel and Mehmet Aurelio are unavailable.
Aurelio in particular will be badly missed. The Brazilian born defensive midfield player has been outstanding in the tournament. In goal we can anticipate that one of the heroes from 2002, Rustu Recber will step in.
Following the World Cup in 2002 Recber transferred to Barcelona but it proved to be an unhappy move. He returned to Turkish football after one season and now at 35 he he has been given another opportunity on the European stage.
The odds are stacked against Turkey and it will need a colossal performance to beat Croatia today.
Referee: Roberto Rosetti, linesmen: Alessandro Griselli, Paolo Calcagno (all Italy), fourth official: Manuel Mejuto (Spain)
Match Report
Croatia 1-1 Turkey (Turkey wins 3-1 on penalties)
If you ever want to show a
player or a team why you should never give up, point them towards Turkey’s performances
at Euro 2008. Each dramatic finish has topped the one before but you have to
wonder how they can possibly beat this one.
After 119 minutes without a goal
Klasnic took advantage of a mental error by Turkish goalkeeper Rustu Recber and
looked to have put Croatia through to a semifinal meeting with Germany. Recber was
caught out of his goal and was beaten to a loose ball by Modric. The midfielder turned neatly and chipped the
ball to a waiting Klasnic who was left in front of an unattended goal.
It was almost
inconceivable that with only seconds left that Turkey could recover from such a
death blow. But recover they did and
more. Recber pushed everyone forward and pumped a free kick into the Croatia
penalty area. The ball broke to Semih Senturk who had come on after 75
minutes and he lashed shot past an astonished Pletikosa.
It was then to penalty
kicks and it was clear that Turkey held a clear psychological advantage. They had
fought through a depleted starting lineup, suspensions and conceding a late
goal in extra time and and while Turkey knew that they’d come back from a near
death experience, Croatia knew that a lapse in concentration had let Turkey off
the hook.
When Modric put the first
penalty wide the writing was on the wall.
Of the four Croatia penalties only Srna scored while Turkey was
successful with all three attempts.
Some may describe this
game is drab, others as a game dominated by defenders. But Croatia could have
built themselves a healthy lead before the halfway mark in the first 45 minutes. But the combination of poor finishing-in
particular a staggering miss from Olic- and some last-ditch defending from Turkey
stopped Croatia from taking the lead. By the break Turkey had played their way
back into the game and was beginning to edge Croatia.
The Croatian back four was
lying deeper and the knock on effect was Olic as the lone striker was becoming increasingly
isolated in attack. Croatia was also
allowing Turkey more space in front of the defense and although Turkey’s
chances were restricted to some long-range shots there was a hint that it was
only a matter of time before some chances inside the penalty box would come
their way.
In the second half Croatia
mixed their game up and tried to pick Olic out with some direct play. But it
was clear that the game had settled into a defensive battle with both teams
struggling to get behind the other’s defense.
And so Croatia is left to regret
the loss of a fantastic opportunity for a rematch with Germany while an even
more depleted Turkish side will line up in their first ever Euro semifinal next
Wednesday.
Comment of the Day “We have 15 footballers, two goalkeepers and we can make three substitutions. That is what we have.” – Turkey coach Fatih Terim.
Prediction Update No update today as it is a time intensive process. I will post the leader board at the conclusion of the quarter finals. However, I can add that there are a lot of the leaders that are going to be down to only a couple of teams in the semis.
For Croatia a
performance that just about encompassed everything that the Sunday game against
Austria was not. Comfortable, composed and confident Croatia was well organized
and prepared to largely stifle the Germans attacking options.
Germany may
have had the edge in play but it was Croatia that had the definite advantage in
clear chances. With Kranjcar moving into a more central role Germany had
trouble dealing with the numerical advantage that Croatia held in midfield.
Marcell
Jansen underwent a torrid time at left back and his failure to deal with Pranjic’s
cross (a reminder of how very few crosses we have seen so far in this
tournament) saw Srna turning the ball in at the back post for the first goal. Not
long after Kranjcar had another great chance but Lehmann pulled of####reat
reaction save.
Not
surprisingly Jansen was substituted at half time with Fritz dropping back to
right back and Lahm switching sides. Impact player Odonkor came on ............but failed
to make any impact. Croatia’s second goal (from Olic) seemed to have put the
game well beyond Germany reach only for Podolski to score a cracker. The effect
of the goal may have clouded how good a goal it actually was.
But with ten
minutes left and their lead halved rather than panicking Croatians moved into
what was their most impressive spell of the game. Playing in three and fours
with one touch passing Croatia killed off the game and left only enough time
for Bastian Schweinsteiger to get
himself sent off.
Croatia within a hairs breadth of qualification and Germany now has to
beat Austria and even then they may still have to keep fingers crossed.
Man of the match – Given a free role by Slaven Bilic Niko Kranjcar proved impossible for Germany
to control.
Austria 1-1 Poland
It was a match that delivered much more in the way of incident and excitement than might have been expected. Austria came away with a
share of the points after it looked as if their pressure – particularly in the
first half – was again destined to deliver nothing. A point each keeps both
countries in with a chance to advance but Austria could have had this one
wrapped up in bows before thirty minutes was on the clock.
The Austrians streamed
forward in waves with Korkmaz and Harnik raiding almost at will down the flanks.
As the Polish defence went AWOL it was Artur Boruc vs. Austria. The Celtic
keeper stymied Austria at least four times and he was the reason Poland was
still in the game by the time they took the lead.
The goal came completely
against the run of play as it so often does and it came from a
Southampton-Brazil combo accompanied by a hint of offside. Southampton’s Marek
Saganowski saw his “shot” find Brazilian import Roger Guerreiro who had no
trouble from close in.
The goal took the sting
out of Austria’s attack in as much as they stopped creating chances although
still enjoyed the edge in possession. The second half lacked the cut and thrust
from Austria as the Polish defence reasserted their position. Then with stoppage
time minutes ticking down and a second Polish goal on the break looking more likely
than goal from the co-hosts – finally a goal for Austria and from the penalty spot.
The old man of the
tournament Ivica Vastic put his foot through the shot and the valiant
Boruc went the wrong way.
Update – No group B tie breaker is possible. Croatia qualify
as group winners and will play Turkey or the Czech Republic. Germany will join them
with a win or a draw against Austria. An Austrian win combined with Poland not
beating Croatia will put the co-hosts into the last eight. However, in order to
finish second Poland needs to beat Croatia by a goal more than Austria beats Germany
by. So Germany or Austria or Poland will play a rested Portugal.
Comment of the Day
"People
often think coaches can predict results. Coaches are like you, they are very
bad at giving predictions.” - Arsène Wenger
Tie Breaker
There seems to be a fair bit of confusion regarding the tie breaker rule for the group stage.
Excerpt Competition
Regulations – 7.07 and 7.08
If two or more teams finish equal on points after
all the group matches have been played, the following criteria will be applied
to determine the ranking :
(a) Greater number of points obtained in the matches
between the teams in question.
(b) Goal difference resulting from the matches
between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal).
(c) Greater number of goals scored in the matches
between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal).
(d) Goal difference in all the group matches.
(e) Greater number of goals scored in all the group
matches.
(f) Coefficient of points from the last two
qualifying competitions for the final rounds of the 2006 World Cup and Euro
2008 (points gained and divided by the number of matches played).
(g) Fair Play conduct of the teams (final
tournament).
(h) A drawing of lots by the Organizing Committee.
Criteria (a) to (h) above are not applicable
under these circumstances :
If two teams meeting in one of the last group
matches have the same number of points, the same goal difference and the same
number of goals, and if this match stands at a draw at the end of normal time,
then the ranking of these two teams will be determined by kicks from the
penalty spot, provided no other teams within the group have the same number of
points on completion of all group matches.
It was an ultra-cagey
first half with neither team willing to commit players forward in numbers
during open play. Free kicks and corners offered up the best opportunities but
even then the keepers were rarely tested.
You got the feeling that if France was
willing to up the pace and go after Romania that they would be rewarded. Tamas
and Goian looked very comfortable when balls were played high into the Romanian
area but there was a sense that the ball played quickly along the ground might
have provided them with a far greater challenge.
What's more Romania's goalkeeper Bogdan Lobont seemed at times to be intent on writing his own special chapter focusing on passbacks in the David James and Fabian Barthez best seller "Adventures in Goalkeeping."
The second half pretty
much replicated the opening forty-five minutes. France held an edge but Romania
defended with composure and opted to play the ball through the midfield once the
French had surrendered possession.
The French midfield cried out for a player
to quicken the tempo of the game but Makelele’s forte is to slow the pace down
not to speed it up and France rapidly ran out of attacking ideas. The French attack was not helped by a thoroughly badly balanced pairing of Nicolas Anelka and Karim Benzema.
The second half in
particular was close to a mirror image of the Scotland game in Paris last fall.
A well organized and motivated team comfortably holding off a French side that enjoyed a
significant edge in possession but was unable to change the flow of the game as
their attacking options weathered and died.
A draw means that no
matter the outcome of the second round of games both countries will enter the
final round with a chance of progressing.
Man-of-the-match
My pick would be left back
Razvan Rat. Tidy in possession and
quick in the tackle Rat not only kept Franck Ribery quiet but he also found
time to move forward to support the Romanian attack.
Italy 0-3 Netherlands
Italy is well known for
starting tournaments slowly but rarely has it cost them as dearly. This time it has and even though the opening goal was undoubtedly offside the Italians were
badly outplayed by a Dutch side was quicker in thought and in execution.
The second Dutch goal was
as beautiful as the first one was offside. The classic counter attack came after
van Bronckhorst had cleared what could have been own goal of the Dutch line and
fed the ball up the left touchline. A glorious 40 yard cross field pass was
headed down by Dirk Kuyt and Sneijder showed great composure and skill to hook
the ball passed Buffon.
A third could have come
before half time as van der Vaart played the pass of the tournament to date. He slipped awonderfully weighted pass
behind Materazzi who looked like he was running in sand to van Nistelrooy. This
time Buffon deflected the shot over.
Italy looked to be poorly equipped
to come back from a two goal deficit. A five minute spell from the 70th
minute, when first Toni and then Grosso got behind the Dutch defence and then
Pirlo was denied off of a free kick by van der Sar, was the best Italy could
offer.
Ironically the best
Italian spell of play ended with another Dutch counter attack and another key
contribution from Giovanni van Bronckhorst. Gio was smart enough to know that
Kuyt would not score one-on-one with Buffon and craftily positioned himself for
the cross that came after Buffon’s save. When Kuyt sent in the cross van
Bronckhorst had a free jump and the goal bound header was helped across the
line by Zambrotta.
A nightmare for Italy; a
dream for the Dutch. But remember……it is only the start.
Stat check – Italy’s worst
defeat at major finals since losing 4-1 to Brazil in 1970?
Comment of the Day
This was a description of
Croatia midfielder Luka Modric by Peter Mallett in Saturday’s Globe & Mail.
“Traditionally known for
tireless running, precision through balls and brute physical strength this
22-year-old midfielder personifies all that makes the red, white and blue
checkered shirts of Croatia revered.”
Hmmm - Brute strength? At a little over 5 foot 9 inches and 143
pounds soaking wet Modric might be considered a brute by an under-13 girl’s
team but that is about it.
Prediction Pool
Here is a breakdown of the
winners as predicted on the blog by Friday’s posters.
Germany 25.9%
Spain 19.5%
Italy 13.9%
France 13.0%
Portugal 12.0%
Netherlands 9.2%
Romania 2.8%
Russia
1.9%
Croatia 0.9%
Sweden 0.9%
Thanks to everyone who took the contribute their predictions and I will post the interim leaders at the completion of the group stage.
Conventional wisdom would have had an early goal for Croatia offering up the platform for a resounding win. Conversely the Austrians would have been expected to fold given the form guide going into the tournament. As it was the early penalty kick turned into a curse for Croatia and a blessing for Austria.
The early goal (a dead-cert penalty decision) seemed to dull Croatia’s appetite for the game as they failed to string passes together in any meaningful way. Without Ivica Olic the Croatian attack would have been completely anemic with Petric utterly anonymous.
With Croatia showing little ambition to increase their early lead the Austrian’s slowly settled into the game, grew in confidence and from the 30th minute onwards they dominated large chunks of the match.
Croatia allowed Austria far too much space in midfield as time and time again the co-hosts were allowed time to look up and to pick out their targets. Modric and Srna were particularly culpable as Austria regularly found Martin Harnik on the right side with raking crossfield passes.
Substitutions by Croatia’s manager Slaven Bilic failed to turn the ever increasing tide of Austrian attacks while each change rung by opposite number Josef Hickersberger upped the pressure on the Croatian defence.
In the end Croatia played poorly but still took three points; for Austria a glorious loss.
Three games gone and no surprises - so far.
Germany 2-0 Poland
After an early goal in the first game of the day, we could have had two in the first five minutes of this one. The first chance fell to Poland after Lehmann chose to try and gather a cross under pressure rather than punching clear. The fumble dropped awkwardly to Jacek Krzynówek who shot over from just outside of the box.
Only a couple of minutes later Klose caught the Polish back four flat-footed and square and was left with a clear run on goal. Rather than shooting Klose opted to pass to Gomez who in arriving late had to stretch to make contact. It made for a weak connection and the ball rolled agonizingly past the post.
Both incidents were to be harbingers as the first half progressed. Krzynówek was the central focus of most of the Polish attacks, while Klose again beat a stagnant Polish defensive line to find himself one-on-one with Boruc.
Once more Klose opted to pass but this time it was Lukas Podolski who was in support and he potted the chance. By half time it could well have been 3-1 as Germans continued to press with purposeful play and although Poland continued to look shaky under pressure they still carved out a great chance for Zurawski.
Half time substitute Roger Guerreiro helped Poland to their best period of pressure in the first twenty minutes of the second half but after Podolski scored with twenty minutes left a German win was never in doubt.
Podolski produced the best individual performance of the tournament so far and it was not just down to his two goals. Starting on the left side of midfield Podolski worked hard getting up and down the park and was a constant irritant to Poland.
Germany will be happy with the result and satisfied with the performance. Poland can take something away from this game as well. The defence and midfield settled down after a wobbly start but they look to have same problem as a number of other countries at his tournament – no one to finish at the business end.
Comment of the Day
In my Spain preview I included this comment - "Spain’s soft spot might
be in midfield and that in turn may put the centre of defence under stress and
strain. In midfield tidy passing types pervade but they may turn out to be
lightweight over potentially three weeks of competition. Ball possession may
not be a problem but moving the ball quickly to the strikers could be".
Writing in The Times Gabriele Marcotti provided his thoughts on the Spanish dilemma and in the process he included some memorable alliteration.
"Cesc Fabregas may be the best
foreign midfielder not named Michael in the Premier League, but it holds little
stock with Luis Aragones, the Spain manager. His place with Spain is in serious
jeopardy which, frankly, seems extraordinary until you look at the midfielders
at Aragones' disposal. For whatever reason, Spain excels at producing
pint-sized pass-happy pixies: Xavi, David Silva and Andres Iniesta are all in
the same mould, creative little fellas who can pass the ball to death. The
problem is, you can only fit so many of them in your team.
Already Aragones is having to deploy
Iniesta and Silva wide, despite the fact that both are probably more suited to
a central role. And while deploying Xavi and Cesc together in the middle is a
sexy idea, Spain need at least one holding midfielder, otherwise they'll be
steamrollered. And that spot goes to Marcos Senna. Which means that Aragones
has two options: he can either go with a 4-5-1 formation (but that would mean
leaving out the in-form David Villa) or he can make a difficult choice between
Xavi and Cesc. And, in that case, Xavi would be favored by a mile. It's
debatable that he's a better player, less debatable is that he's more
experienced and plays his football in Spain which means that, if things go
horribly wrong, Xavi's exclusion is likely to haunt Aragones for far longer."
Before we gaze into the crystal ball here are some statistics collected from UEFA.com and other sources on the players, countries and club affiliations at Euro 2008.
Players Oldest – Ivica Vastica a midfielder for Austria will be 39 in September which makes him six weeks older than Germany’s goalkeeper Jens Lehmann.
Youngest – Swiss forward Eren Derdiyok will no longer be a teenager when he turns 20 in six days time.
Tallest – Czech Republic forward Jan Koller stands at 202 cms. which is little over 6 foot 8 inches. But beware Koller and other tall players have been known to grow during major tournaments. Commentators take it upon themselves to add half an inch here and there and so if the Czechs reach the final game don’t be surprised if Koller is over seven foot by June 29th.
Shortest – The player jumping up and down in the tall grass will be Romanian midfielder Florentin Petre who is nearly 5 foot and six and a half inches although he claims that the wall chart in kitchen shows six and five eighth inches.
Countries (average) Oldest Sweden 29.14
Italy 29.10
Greece 29.05
Youngest Russia 26.13
Switzerland 26.38
Spain 26.40
Countries with players 21 or under at the start of the the tournament - 21 Switzerland, Portugal, Austria and Turkey 3 each
Croatia, France and Poland 2 each
Romania, Czech Republic and Spain 1 each
Countries with outfield players 34 or over at the start of the the tournament - 16 Austria, Sweden, France, Croatia, Italy and Czech Republic 2 each
Poland, Italy, Germany and Turkey 1 each
Countries with the fewest domestic based players in their squad Croatia 2
Czech Republic 3
Countries with the most domestic based players in their squad Russia 22
Germany and Italy 19
Tallest (average) Croatia 184.91 (a smidgen under 6 foot 2 inches)
Germany 184.87
Switzerland 184.61
Shortest (average) Spain 179.61 (180 is 6 foot)
Turkey 180.35
Portugal 180.57
Players contributed by clubs Panathinaikos (Greece) and Lyon (France) 10 each
Galatasaray (Turkey) and Bayern Munich 9 each
Premiership clubs represented – 17 of 20. Arsenal and Chelsea 7
Liverpool 5
Manchester United 4
Highest representation of players by league Germany 56
England 43
Spain 41
Italy 36
Russia 30
For those making predictions don’t be to despondent should your “dead-cert can’t lose winner” get off to a slow start. There is ample evidence to show that countries can recover from a set-back or two at the group stage and still go on to the final or even win the Championship.
1980 – Belgium won only once in the group stage but went on to finish as runners-up to Germany.
1984 – Spain recorded just one win in three group games but qualified for the knock out stage all the same and finished as runners-up to France.
1988 – The Netherlands lost their opening game of the tournament to the Soviet Union but gained revenge when the counties met again in the final when the Dutch won 2-0.
1992 – Danish players were recalled from the beaches and golf courses of Europe to take the place of Yugoslavia. Denmark had a draw and a loss in their first two group games before beating France and moving into the last eight. From there the Netherlands were beaten in a penalty kick shoot-out and the Danes took the title beating Germany 2-0 in the final.
1996 – The Czech Republic lost their opening group game 2-0 to Germany but rebounded to make the final against the same opponent. However, Germany doubled the Czechs with a golden goal from Oliver Bierhoff.
2004 – Few would have predicted that the two countries that opened the tournament would also make it all the way to the final match. But that was exactly what happened. Greece beat Portugal 2-1 in the opener and then again 1-0 in the final.
However, few seem to remember that the opening game win was Greece’s only victory in group play. The second match was a 1-1 draw with Spain and Russia then beat the eventual winners 2-1. Portugal actually won group A while Greece only moved on based on scoring more goals than Spain having finished tied on both points and goal differential.
Predictions Before anyone jumps all over anyone's predictions there is one rule. No criticism allowed unless you also post your own predictions under the comments section. A scoring system can be found at the end of my predictions.
Group A 1. Portugal 2. Czech Republic 3. Switzerland 4. Turkey
Group B 1. Germany 2. Croatia 3. Poland 4. Austria
Group C 1. France 2. Romania 3. Italy 4. Netherlands
There has to be at least one surprise and for me this is it. I flipped between France and Italy not to qualify and the decision eventually swung on Cannavaro’s injury and the potential France have available from the bench. We will see.
Group D 1. Spain 2. Greece 3. Sweden 4. Russia
Quarter Finals Portugal to beat Croatia
Germany to beat Czech Republic
France to beat Greece
Spain to beat Romania
Semi Finals Germany to beat Portugal
France to beat Spain
Final Germany to beat France
Prediction scoring system 1 point for every group position picked correctly.
2 bonus points for getting 1st or 2nd position in the group correct
3 points for correctly predicting the winners of each of the quarter final matches
5 points for correctly predicting the winners of the semi finals
10 points for correctly predicting the winners of the competition.
By my calculation sixty-four points (64) constitutes the maximum score.
Austria Austria has never played in the Euro Championships Finals.
How they qualified It was an epic struggle that was played out in the soccer boardrooms, conference centres and bars of Europe. Along the way Russia, Hungary, four Nordic countries, Croatia and Bosnia, Greece and Turkey, Scotland and Ireland were all outmanouvered and eventually beaten by a unprecedented and overpowering display of power point presentations, computer animations, and scenic views of very large snow capped mountains.
The Coach Josef Hickersberger is in charge of the national team for a second time having helped Austria to Italia ’90. However, a shock 1-0 loss to the Faroe Islands in Euro ’92 qualifying brought his first spell to an abrupt end. This was the Faroe Islands first win in a competitive competition and the two countries have been drawn together in World Cup 2010 World Cup qualifying.
Key Players Former Sunderland and Chelsea goalkeeper Jurgen Macho looks set to start for Austria. Macho moved to Rapid Vienna for a short spell after leaving Stamford Bridge and then switched to Kaiserlautern in Germany before settling at AEK Athens last summer. Captain Andreas Ivanschitz is another Greek based player and is on a two year loan with Panathinaikos and generally plays in an attacking midfield role.
Great Euro Memory The announcement on December 12, 2002 by then UEFA President Lennart Johannsen that Austria and Switzerland would stage the tournament.
Synopsis Austria’s performances on the international stage have been so bad that at one point some fans raised a petition calling for the team to default and allow another country to take their place.
(Remenbering their success in 1992 after entering through the backdoor the Danes were excited at that prospect but nothing came of it.)
Unusually for a host nation expectations are at rock bottom. It is certainly a long way from the iconic Austrian side of the early 30s or even the team of Hans Krankl that went to the 78 and 82 World Cups. One win would be better than expected for this Austrian side.
Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying In Group 7 together with France, Romania, Serbia, Lithuania and Faroe Islands.
Croatia Croatia previously qualified for the 1996 and 2004 finals and made it to the quarter finals in 1996 before losing 2-1 to the eventual tournament winners Germany.
How they qualified As every English supporter can tell you Croatia won Group E with a game to spare and five points better than runners-up Russia. Eduardo da Silva was the man that led the scoring for Croatia with ten goals – only three behind David Healy of Northern Ireland who led all scorers with thirteen. Mladen Petric was next with seven goals.
The Coach Charismatic coach Slaven Bilic was in charge of the Under-21 side before stepping up to the senior team two summers ago. Bilic was member of the 1996 Euro side and also played two years later in the team that finished third at the World Cup in France.
As a player he plied his trade in Germany and in England with West Ham and Everton. A successful Euro 08 will only fuel the speculation that a managerial move to a Premiership team will come sooner rather than later.
Key Players The team is extremely well balanced although playmaker Luka Modric has received most of the attention to date. Modric has already signed for Tottenham Hotspur a next season he will play in the Premiership.
Croatia must get over the loss of top striker Eduardo da Silva who had his leg horrifically broken earlier this year while playing for Arsenal in the Premiership. Borussia Dortmund striker Mladen Pertric might pick up the slack.
Ivica Olic is more than capable of scoring goals as is Parma striker Igor Budan who enjoyed a good run of form towards the end of the Serie A season. The midfield is another area of strength with Niko Kranjcar a recognizable name to followers of the Premiership. The Kovac brothers Niko and Robert provide years of top class experience to the team both in defence and midfield.
Great Euro Memory After beating Turkey 1-0 in their very first finals game in 1996, Croatia followed the result up with an emphatic 3-0 shellacking of reigning champions Denmark. All three goals came in the second half with a double from Davor #### and he also set up the other for Zvonimir Boban.
Synopsis Croatia is considered to be a dark horse and one of the leading second tier contenders after the likes of France, Italy, and Germany. If there is a weakness in the side it may be in goal with Spartak Moscow keeper Stipe Pletikosa.
Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying Will meet England once again as well as Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Andorra in Group 6.
