Note: This article has also appeared on FoxSoccer.com but without the statistics on home advantage.
With a comfortable preliminary round win against St. Vincent and the Grenadines out of the way Canada gets down to the serious business of World Cup qualifying on Wednesday when they play Jamaica in Toronto.
Mexico and Honduras are the other two countries in Group B. Two countries will qualify for a final group of six. From the final group, the top three countries will qualify to play in South Africa in 2010 while the fourth-place team will have to play-off against the country finishing fifth in South American qualifying.
Last week Canadian coach Dale Mitchell stressed the importance of winning at home and trying to pick up a point or two on the road. “The last couple of times, the home teams have let us down a little bit,” he said.
One look at the history book will tell you that it wasn’t just the last couple of times and it wasn’t just by a little bit. Canada’s home form in World Cup qualifying since their one and only appearance in 1986 in Mexico has cost them any chance they might have have had of returning to the world stage.
Too many times Canada has been unable to turn home advantage into three points and without rock-solid home performances it is almost impossible to qualify from CONCACAF.
Canada has even found that winning at home sometimes hasn’t been enough. Back in the late 80s Canada beat Guatemala 3-2 in a preliminary round game but lost on the away goals rule. Four years later they beat Australia 2-1 in Edmonton in a playoff game but lost by a single goal in Sydney and then lost on penalty kicks.
All told Canada has won only twelve of the twenty-four home games they’ve played in World Cup qualifying since 1986. They’ve drawn another six, and lost six. In fact, it is over a decade since Canada won a make-or-break game on home soil. The last crucial win came in 1997 against Costa Rica when a goal from Eddy Berdusco gave Canada the win and what turned out to be a temporary lifeline. It was Canada’s only win in the final round and they finished bottom of the group.
A comparison to the home records of CONCACAF countries (see Home Advantage below?) who have qualified directly since 1990 makes it stunningly obvious how important it is to win at home. In the ninety-three games played by countries that have gone on to qualify for the World Cup Finals there have been only four losses against seventy-five wins.
Canada’s Gold Cup win in 2000 encouraged the notion that a trip to Japan and South Korea in 2002 was possible but they failed to even qualify from the preliminary group stage. A similar fate was in store four years later.
Will this time be different? Despite inflated and sometimes unrealistic expectations of previous squads there are a number of genuine reasons why this time it might be different. While many Canadian teams of the past have been able to defend, creating and taking chances has rarely been a strong point.
This team is different. For example in striker Rob Friend Canada has a player with size and strength who can play with his back to the goal, link the attack and score goals. Followers of MLS need no introduction to the talents of Dwayne De Rosario and Mitchell has shown a greater willingness to play Rosario in a more central role than others before him. Deportivo La Coruna’s Julian de Guzman and FC Copenhagen’s Atiba Hutchison are both top class midfielders who are comfortable at either end of the field.
With their first two games at home (Honduras September 6 in Montreal) Canada has a chance to get off to a roaring start and to show the rest on CONCACAF that this time it will be different. But anything less than six points and Canadian fans will be thinking that they have seen this picture too many times before. Home Advantage?
1986 Preliminary Rounds - Home Record Canada 2-0 Haiti Canada 2-1 Guatemala
Final Round - Home Record Canada 1-1 Costa Rica Canada 2-1 Honduras
1990 Preliminary Rounds - Home Record Canada 3-2 Guatemala (lost on away goals)
Final Round Did not qualify
Qualified Countries - Home Records Costa Rica 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses. USA 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses.
1994 Preliminary Rounds - Home Record Canada 1-0 Jamaica Canada 2-3 El Salvador Canada 4-2 Bermuda
Final Round - Home Record Canada 2-0 El Salvador Canada 3-1 Honduras Canada 1-2 Mexico
Play Off - Home Record Canada 2-1 Australia (eventually lost on penalty kicks)
Qualified Countries - Home Records Mexico 6 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses.
1998 Preliminary Rounds - Home Record Canada 3-1 Panama Canada 2-0 Cuba Canada 1-0 El Salvador
Final Round - Home Record Canada 0-0 El Salvador Canada 0-0 Jamaica Canada 1-0 Costa Rica Canada 2-2 Mexico Canada 0-3 USA
Qualified Countries - Home Records Mexico 6 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses. USA 6 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses. Jamaica 8 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses.
2002 Preliminary Rounds - Home Record Canada 0-0 Cuba Canada 0-2 Trinidad and Tobago Canada 1-0 Panama (fate already sealed) Canada 0-0 Mexico
Final Round Did not qualify
Qualified Countries - Home Records Costa Rica 6 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses. Mexico 7 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss. USA 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.
2006 Preliminary Rounds - Home Record Canada 4-0 Belize Canada 0-2 Guatemala Canada 1-1 Honduras Canada 1-3 Costa Rica
Final Round Did not qualify
Qualified Countries - Home Records USA 8 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses. Mexico 9 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses. Costa Rica 6 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses.
Summary CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying - Home records 1990-2006 Canada P 24, W 12, D 6, L 6. Qualifying Countries P 93, W 75, D 14, L 4. USA P 30, W 23, D 6, L 1.
Czech coach Karel Bruckner
recalled Jan Koller the lead the attack and it quickly paid off. A weakness in
the centre of the Turkish defence was evident in their first two group games
and in the early going Koller exploited it.
The Czech settled into a early rhythm as they looked to find Koller at every opportunity and to feed off his
knock downs and flicks. However, the Czech tactics came with a price tag and it
was the big striker who was footing the bill (I could have said writing the
cheque!) as he took a battering from the Turkish back four.
Just as Turkey seemed to
be finding their game with some tidy possession football the Czechs took a
well-deserved lead. Galloping down the right side on the overlap Grygera
whipped in a cross just behind Koller. The striker managed to reposition
himself and the resulting header flew into the roof of the net.
The Czechs rode the goal
to half time with Turkey showing little response to going a goal down. However,
it was a very different Turkish side that came out for the second half and
pressed the Czechs at every opportunity. Even when the Czechs went to up
against the run of play it only served to reinvigorate a Turkey side that just
would not give up.
The second Czech goal came
after a quick free kick was fed out to Sionko who crossed invitingly to the far
post. Plasil arrived at a rate of knots to complete a very smart move. Excellent goal.
But even
at 2-0 there were the seeds of defeat in the Czechs play. Where in the first
half the team pressed forward and allowed the likes Sionko, Matejovsky and Polak
to support and feed off Koller, in the second half the Czechs lost that shape
and large gaps started forming between midfield, Koller and the support
strikers.
Koller’s legs were the
first to go but he would not be the last. Incredibly, Bruckner stubbornly stuck
with the first half goal scorer rather than looking to the likes of the mobile
Baros or Sverkos the scorer of the winner against Switzerland. As the Czechs
failed to hold possession up front the pressure mounted on the midfield and the
defence as Turkey continued to swarm the Czechs at will.
With quarter of an hour left Arda Turan
stepped up to give Turkey hope as he reduced the deficit to one but still
Bruckner stuck with Koller. Kadlec and Vlcek came on for Plasil and Sionko but
neither moved threatened to turn the tide. Almost every Czech player was being
outworked, out tackled and out fought by a younger and much fitter Turkish team.
However, with three
minutes to go it looked as if the Czech Republic would hang on. Little did
we realize that we still had the most astonishing finish since Spain scored
twice in injury time to beat Yugoslavia 4-3 at Euro 2000 in store.
First Cech dropped a
routine cross at the feet of Nihat who gratefully slipped the ball into an
empty net.
Then just two minutes
later the Turkish captain caught Jankulovski a step behind the other defenders,
sprung the offside trap and thumped a shot over the oncoming Cech, off the
underside of the bar and into the net.
Turkey led 3-2 but there
was more still in store. A stramash in the Turkish box ended with the ball rolling
wide of an empty goal but after it had gone out of play Demirel took a pop at
Koller and deservedly got sent off. After having used all their substitutes, Turkey finished
the match with ten men and with Tuncay Sanli in goal.
The Czechs leave the
tournament after the coach who put them in a position to move on, in turn
became the coach whose decision to stick with Jan Koller killed their chances.
Portugal 0-2 Switzerland
Switzerland finish bottom
of Group A but leave the tournament with a win.
Comment of the Day
“But the pluses(for Portugal) are not merely Deco back on top form controlling midfield alongside Joao Moutinho, but also Cristiano Ronaldo, a player capable of turning games even if he is not playing especially well.
It feels like a Life of Brian “What did the Romans ever do for us?” comment, but aside from creating two goals and scoring one, Ronaldo did little against the Czechs. They almost succeeded in isolating him, but almost with Ronaldo is not enough.” – Jonathan Wilson in the Financial Times.
Other goings on It is a World Cup qualifying weekend in Africa, Asia, South America and CONCACAF.
There were a few shocks in Africa yesterday with Angola, Egypt, Ghana and Morocco all losing while
Cameroon and the Ivory Coast both drew.
However, this is only the half way point in a preliminary qualifying stage so it might be a bit premature to think realistically that some of these countries are going to miss out on the first World Cup Finals in Africa.
The prelim stage has 12 groups with the winners and 8 best runners up moving onto a final; group stage of four teams in five groups. Winners will then join the host nation South Africa in 2010.
World Cup qualifying in Africa also doubles up for the African Cup of Nations Finals and that is why South Africa is involved.
An update of the current group standings in Africa can be found by following the link.
One country that will not be in South Africa in two years time is 2002 qualifiers China. Consecutive losses to Qatar and yesterday to Iraq put paid to Chinese hopes. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Japan, North and South Korea, Bahrain and Uzbekistan are all guaranteed a place in the final stage of Asia qualifying.
The remaining two places will be decided next weekend with Iraq up against Qatar in Group 1 and UAE or Syria in Group 5.
An update of the current group standings in Asia can be found by following the link.
Two games in South American qualifying were played yesterday and both finished in 1-1 draws – Uruguay at home to Venezuela and Peru at home to Colombia. The other games scheduled for today are Paraguay vs. Brazil; Argentina vs. Ecuador; Bolivia vs. Chile.
Yesterday’s draw puts Venezuela into fifth place in the group (a place above Uruguay) and they have a solid chance of maintaining that position after today’s games.
Paraguay could give Brazil are real run for their money I fancy.
An update of the current group standings in CONMEBOL can be found by following the link.
And last but definitely not least we have CONCACAF qualifying. Canada hopes to start a journey that will conclude with their first appearance at the World Cup finals since 1986 while the USA want to make it six consecutive appearances at the finals.
This preliminary round generally keeps the traditionally more powerful nations apart and matches then with non-traditional soccer powers in a home and away series. The chances of a real shock or two are not high but from time to time the bigger countries only squeak past the “minnows”.
Costa Rica made it to Germany in 2006 but they had to rely on the away goals rule to get past Cuba at this stage four years ago. And after yesterday’s result against Grenada they may have a tough time again.
Costa Rica was down 2-0 after less than thirty minutes before finally drawing 2-2 in St Georges.
So a warning to Canada (vs. St. Vincent and the Grenadines) and to the USA (vs. Barbados) who both play today.
Honduras is already through to the next stage after drawing 2-2 with Puerto Rico yesterday after winning the first leg 4-0.
A CONCACAF schedule and scores to date can be found by following the link.
MeanSucka - I know I may be late on this one - what do you think of Michael Owen saying that the England need to rethink psychological preparation for matches: "When fear takes over, you start to do things wrong and take the easy option which in our case is lumping the ball forward to the front men. I’m not absolving myself from blame… What must be addressed as much as anything is our psychological preparations."
Do you suspect that McClaren was playing a DVD of Shrek to motivate the team?
Bobby – As late as a Robbie Savage challenge. I think Owen has a point. The way England plays at times it does look like they are racked with fear. But fear can be generated from a number of sources and having a manager who was indecisive and seemed more concerned about his image would not have helped.
CIAO - Here is to MILAN!!! I hope they prove Marcotti wrong! Haven't writers yet learned not to write off Italians?
Bobby – I guess it stings more when it as an Italian writer writing off Milan.
CIAO - Can you please give us your early predictions for the EURO 2008?
Bobby – It is far too early to start looking at a crystal ball. I’ll keep my thoughts until next summer.
Getz76 - Is Sam Allardyce in trouble? I am completely indifferent on the topic and to me it looks like they are performing much like they were last season; was he expected to get to European competition in the first season?
Bobby – Yes. Newcastle fans are so frustrated after years of false dawns and a revolving manager’s door that they do probably have unrealistic expectations. However, having unrealistic expectations is one thing but I think you nailed it with your comment “to me it looks like they are performing much like they were last season.” With the money that has been spent – again – and to see a team that is no better must be soul-destroying.
CIAO - So I just search the World Cup in Wikipedia. 1930 was the first WC. Won by Uruguay, runner up was Argentina. Third place it listed as USA and 4th Yugoslavia. Is this correct? Was the US really 3rd?
Bobby – It was a thirteen tournament with one group of four and three groups of three. The USA was drawn in pool IV along with Paraguay and Belgium. The USA beat both 3-0. They lost 6-1 to Argentina in the semi final although they were only losing 1-0 at the half and conceded three goals in the last nine minutes of the match. I can’t find any record of a third place game so it they finished third it might have been due to a better goal average than Yugoslavia who had also lost 6-1 to Uruguay in the other semi.
European representation was limited to France, Yugoslavia, Romania, and Belgium – even at that they only decided to travel less than two months before the tournament. However, it would be unfair to make too much out of the few European teams that travelled given that Argentina and Uruguay had also contested the Olympic Final in ’28. Uruguay won both finals. The European teams that were missed the most were probably Austria, Scotland and England.
According to “The Story of the World Cup” by Brian Glanville (a book that every fan of international football would enjoy) the USA was actually seeded top in their pool. To quote Glanville – “At this time there was still professional football of a sort in the States, the rump of the attempt by such as Bethlehem Steel to put sports on its feet in the 1920s. The American team managed by Jack McColl of Brooklyn Wanderers, was made up largely of British and Scots pros: Alec Wood, James Gallacher, Andrew Auld, James Brown and Bart McGhee from Scotland, George Moorhouse from England. They were powerfully-built men whom the French players nicknamed the “shot-putters”.”
Gregz-Q1. Jamaica rehired Rene Simoes to try to recapture the '98 glory? Won't it be harder for him this time around? Q2. Which country from the CONCACAF region do you see having a good chance of qualifying for WC 2010 other than Mexico and the United States of course.
Bobby – Q1. I think it will be harder this time around. Greater expectations, CONCACAF is probably stronger than 10 years ago and they have a tough qualifying group.
Q2 Based on past performances you would have to give Costa Rica a nod as one of the countries with an excellent chance. On paper Honduras as a good squad but they have a habit of folding under pressure. Canada is in with a shout but they need to win at home and hope that a few of their more creative and attacking players stay healthy.
Milan4Ever - Is it just me or are there a lot more own goals being scored in football these days? Could it be because of the increased pace of the game or the extra pressure on defenders? or maybe even both..?
Bobby – Good question and the answer is yes and no. I went back to the last two seasons and compared the average goals scored in six of Europe’s domestic leagues with the average so far this season.
Here are the statistics by country and season (2008, 2007 and 2006).
England (2.66, 2.45, 2.48) Italy (2.52, 2.55, 2.61) Spain (2.68, 2.48, 2.46) France (2.24, 2.25, 2.13) Germany (2.76, 2.74, 2.81) Holland (3.19, 2.99, 2.98)
In some cases there are more goals being scored but in others less. There is nothing to indicate that any systemic type change leading to more goals is underway. What you might be seeing is more blow outs than normal. For example the Portsmouth/Reading and Everton/Sunderland games have increased the goal average by 0.10 based on these two results alone.
Pgaijar - Fantastic hearing about the development of football in India, earlier this year in January I was in India, and was surprised by the amount of cricket Indians watched. They took days off to watch a test match, and hopefully in the years to come India will embrace footy just as much as cricket. But one thing troubles me Bobby do you think corruption which has disrupted much of the development in India will cause problems?
Bobby – It doesn’t seem to have affected FIFA so India should be ok.
Indahaeri - There is an interesting story in Inter-Milan that is under the surface. It looks to me that there is lack of cooperation between Ibrahimovic and the new attackers that Inter signed this year.
As I watched the second half of Inter and Fiorentina this past weekend, I saw terse statements exchanged by Ibrahimovic and Suazo. I also see that Ibrahimovic seems to intentionally play better with Cruz than either with new big signings - Suazo or the Argentinian. I saw several times in that game when Ibrahimovic delayed passes to Suazo or slowed down leaving Suazo to hold the ball longer than supporting him (when Suazo had the ball).
Bobby – Ibrahimovic has always been a prickly character. I have trouble believing that a player intentionally plays better (or worse) depending on who he is playing with. Who is the big Argentine signing?
Craigy_f - Favour if you could; I have a point to prove - check out my Liverpool v Bolton game summary and give some indication of (in your opinion) of it's veracity and bias. You can just laugh at the second one!
Bobby – Let’s just say that you can’t be accused of seeing things through red-tinted glasses.
Wiegs9 – I was wondering if there are certain experience, successes or personality traits which might suggest someone would be good int'l manager for a bigger nation like Scotland, England or Ireland? I ask b/c it seems like success at a club doesn't necessarily equate to int'l success, though I wondered if you had seen any trends. Thanks!
Bobby – I don’t think there is necessarily an identikit that can be constructed as there will always be exceptions. But successful international managers tend to be older (check past winners of the World Cup and Euros) and have enjoyed some success at the club level.
The other international manager niche is coaches who graduate through the national system (working with age group teams) and work their way into a job after building trust along the way with players, the media, and the national associations. Media savvy is critical, as is the ability to get on with club managers.
Ulsterson – I didn't get to watch the game yesterday (Work) so I was hoping someone could tell me why Evra was subbed in the 47th?
Bobby – It was reported as illness.
Henry14 - Q1 Don't you feel that Jose is a risk , okay the media wants him to be paid $12m and won't it be a risk that he is given a job and Barca, then and scoop him when the fa is sending money on his blue print of facilities and before World Cup.
Q2 Tottenham could be in bottom half by February, if you look at their fixture list what do you make of that fact.
Q3 Liverpool are playing well do you see them challenging for the title given they still have to go to Arsenal, Chelsea and Man Utd. and they lost all those games
Bobby – 1. Find me a manager who is a sure thing.
2. As so could three quaters of the Premiership.
3. I said at the beginning of the season that I could see a four-horse race and I stick by that.
Henry14 - Milan are a poor side.
Bobby – Perhaps but remember the same or similar was said last season around this time and they finished up as the Champions of Europe.
You can find the draw information by federation tucked away near the bottom right hand corner of the page . As I mentioned at the end of the show last night it is seems curious that UEFA seeding is based on the FIFA rankings from November 2007.
Concacaf however, has opted to use May 2007 which is prior to this past summer’s Gold Cup. Anyone smell a rat? (Africa is using July 2007).
Country (May-Nov) Mexico 1-1 USA 2-2 Costa Rica 3-7 Honduras 4-3 Panama 5-5* Trinidad & Tobago 6-10 Jamaica 7-12 Cuba 8-8 Haiti 9-5* Guatemala 10-13 Canada 11-4 Guyana 12-11 St Vincent & Gren. 13-9
* tied for 5th. (Should the tie breaker not have been the respective penalty kick shoot out records?)
I’ve never put any credence into the FIFA World rankings but if there are to be used for seeding purposes surely then the most current version should be used.
Here is the profile of the man who will be in the middle, Ravshan Irmatov of Uzbekistan. He has been in charge of two games in the tournament and both finished 3-0. His first was Mexico versus Gambia and the other, Chile versus Congo.
Over the years Uruguay has gained a reputation for producing some pretty brutal sides – brutal in the sense of dirty. However, check out this statistics page and it looks like this Uruguay side has been the #### cats of the tournament so far.
Even the red card given to goalkeeper Mauro Goicoechea was for a rugby tackle on a Zambian forward after he had missed what should have been a straight forward clearance. Only Costa Rica committed fewer fouls (29) in the first three games of the tournament than Uruguay (33).
On the other hand only Congo (59) has committed more fouls than the USA (57).
Scotland fans are well use to failures at World Cups. But as of last night Scotland has now taken it to a different level. Scotland’s last second loss to Costa Rica meant that not only are they heading home across the Atlantic but they also reduced the host country Canada’s chances of moving into the last sixteen. You invite someone to your party and they “water” your living room carpet!!
Yesterday was not a good day for the host nation as the options for qualifying for the knock stages eroded as the day went on. Prior to group B action the best scenario for Canada was this.
What Canada needs to do to definitely move on. Must win (against Congo) and… Hope Scotland and Costa Rica draw or….. Zambia and Jordan don’t win.
But Zambia did win.
And so before Group F action it had been reduced to – Update - What Canada must do to move on. 1. Must beat Congo and… 2. Hope Scotland and Costa Rica draw or if Scotland or Costa Rica win….. 3. Canada must then win by enough goals to finish with a better record than the other countries that finish third with three points.
But Costa Rica did win and so we are down to essentially two games that will decide Canada’s fate.
First of all here is a recap of the process to decide the four best place finishers from FIFA.com. “The four best place finishers will be determined by; most points gained in group matches, goal difference in all group matches, most goals scored in all group matches, fair play system in which the number of yellow and red cards are evaluated, drawing of lots”.
So applying the tie breaker rule we know that after yesterday’s games that North Korea is definitely going home (only two points) while Brazil (3 points and a minus 1 goal differential but have scored 2 more goals than Costa Rica) is moving on. Zambia’s win pushed Uruguay into third place but with four points they make it to the last sixteen with at least a point to spare.
So that leaves two of four spots for the best third place finishers left to fill. The teams that are left to fight it out are Portugal, Gambia, New Zealand, Canada, Congo and Costa Rica.
As they say in golf, Costa Rica is in the club house and they have set the bar (or is it they are sitting at the bar?). Here is each of the team’s positions.
Although on paper New Zealand is still in with a chance they are at a severe disadvantage. They are the only country left that could win today (against Mexico) and still finish bottom of their group. Because Portugal plays Gambia and Congo plays Canada a win for any of these countries means that they are guaranteed to finish no lower than third. So we are going to discount the chance that the Kiwis and fate can conspire to produce an unprecedented set of results and focus on the other four.
Portugal is clearly in the best position to move on and can afford to lose 2-0 to Gambia and still qualify because of goals scored. If Gambia can score the first goal then Portugal might be more inclined to cruise rather than chasing a game and possibly being hit on the break and losing heavily.
That's an advantage to Gambia but conversely they sit in a rather precarious position because of their goal differential of -2. Canada and Costa Rica especially will be hoping that Portugal can win. That scenario would put Costa Rica through. Canada would also then move on if they beat Congo (by any score) and Gambia lost by two goals to Portugal. A two goal win for Portugal is clearly the best case scenario for Canada.
If Portugal only wins by one goal then Canada should be hoping that Gambia is shut out in the process. A high scoring one goal win for Portugal would require Canada to exceed Portugal’s high scoring one goal of a difference win or beat Congo by two clear goals. If Portugal scores first then Gambia will have nothing to lose by piling forward.
Unfortunately for Canada there is one more possibility which may actually be the most likely outcome of the Portugal and Gambia match-up. A draw would mean that the group positions would stay as they are and both Gambia and Portugal would move on. That would leave Canada needing a three goal win to move on at the expense of Costa Rica.
No matter the outcome of the late afternoon games we know that when Congo and Canada kick’s off tonight both countries will know what is required. In the case of Congo they know already. A win puts them through to the last sixteen – with the possibility that they could still finish second in the group. A draw does neither country any good and so if we get an early first goal then the other side is going to be forced forward which could mean a lot more opportunities at both ends. The first goal in any game is critical but even more so tonight.
Latest Betting on today's games
Canada 2/1, Draw 11/5, Congo 11/10.
New Zealand 10/1, Draw 9/2, Mexico 2/11.
Portugal 4/5, Draw 7/4, Gambia 4/1. (I like the odds on a win by Gambia)
FIFA Under-20 World Cup Champion
Argentina 3/1, Mexico 4/1, Spain 7/1, USA 8/1, Portugal 9/1, Nigeria 10/1, Uruguay 11/1, Brazil 11/1, Chile 12/1, Japan 14/1, Czech Republic 20/1, Poland 33/1, Zambia 50/1, Austria 50/1, Costa Rica 125/1, Congo 200/1, Gambia 200/1, Canada 300/1, New Zealand 500/1.
Has there ever been a time when you could get odds of 11/1 on Brazil in a men’s international tournament at the last sixteen stage?
You can send any information (fsr@mts.net) that you think might be of interest about the twenty-four countries and I will post a regular selection. If you have a FIFA Under-20 blog go ahead and post your link under comments.You can also check out the National Post blog.
The USA’s opponents will be the third place finisher from group B (Uruguay), group E (North Korea) or group F (Scotland or Costa Rica). There is 1 permutation out of 15 that it will be Uruguay and seven each that it will be North Korea or Scotland or Costa Rica.
The permutation chances should not be mistaken for probability which at this stage would be far more complicated.
Group B
In the late afternoon games Zambia beat Uruguay 2-0 with both teams playing most of the game with ten men. I had suggested on the FSR last night that the Uruguay Goicoechea was a bit of a disaster and he was sent off in the first half and Zambia scored from the resultant penalty. The keeper miss-kicked and then pulled the Zambia player down.
Zambia had Nyambe sent off for a second yellow card just before half time. A second goal put Zambia well in control and the foul count of 23 to 4 would indicate that Zambia went out to take no prisoners. By finishing second Zambia will play the runner up from group F which will be Japan or Nigeria. Japan holds the edge if these two teams draw tonight and would then play the Czech Republic.
At times Spain made heavy weather of their win over Jordan. They jumped into a three goal lead thanks to a hat trick from Lopez. But Jordan put together a plucky second half and scored a nice goal from Loiv Al Zaideh and a perfectly struck free kick from Abdallah Salim within eight minutes of each other.
The Spanish defense for a time looked like a boxer that had taken one too many on the chin. Spain was forced to bring on Capel and Stephen in an attempt to regain control and it worked as Marcos Garcia gave them a two goal cushion with ten minutes or so to go.
Spain will play Canada or Congo, Portugal or Gambia, or Brazil in the last sixteen.
Update - What Canada must do to move on. 1. Must beat Congo and… 2. Hope Scotland and Costa Rica draw or if Scotland or Costa Rica win….. 3. Canada must then win by enough goals to finish with a better record than the other countries that finish third with three points.
You can send any information (fsr@mts.net) that you think might be of interest about the twenty-four countries and I will post a regular selection. If you have a FIFA Under-20 blog go ahead and post your link under comments.
The best chances of the first half best fell to Nigeria as Scotland struggled to get out of their own half. When the Scots’ did string a couple of passes together the move broke down as the final pass found its way into touch or to a Nigerian player.
Ideye had a couple of excellent chances in the first forty five minutes and both times Scottish keeper Andrew McNeil redeemed himself for a disastrous display against Japan. Jamie Adams (Kilmarnock) picked up a yellow card – his second in two games – after a brutal challenge that saw Sodiq leave the field with a head wound. Adams went in with a high challenge that saw his boot make contact with Sodiq’s head.
Adams will now miss Scotland’s final group game against Costa Rica. Perhaps a more pertinent question would how a player of such limited ability managed to be picked for the first two games?
Nigeria’s first goal came early in the second half and came not unexpectedly from a couple of defensive screw-ups. A routine cross was first misplayed by Cuthbert and Bala thumped the loose ball trough the legs of keeper McNeil.
A couple of Scotland substitutions with three-quarters of the game gone offered a glimmer of hope but as it turned out Nigeria doubled their lead. McNeil was unable to handle a shot from just outside of the penalty box and Bala headed the ball home for his second of the game.
Ambrose picked up a second yellow card with ten minutes to go forcing Nigeria to play short-handed. Scotland mounted a few frantic attacks but failed to break the Nigerian shut-out.
Sodiq was a rock at the centre of Nigeria’s defense while Bala was a constant irritant for Scotland with his speed and aggression.
With two wins Nigeria joins Japan in the last sixteen and which team will remain in Victoria for the first knock-out round will be decided on Saturday. Japan will take top spot with a draw given that the two teams are tied on points and goal difference but Japan has scored more goals.
Scotland and Costa Rica play the same day in a game that could mean nothing except pride. As it is the chances of either team qualifying as one of the four best third place finishers appears to be remote.
You can send any information (fsr@mts.net) that you think might be of interest about the twenty-four countries and I will post a regular selection. If you have a FIFA Under-20 blog go ahead and post your link under comments.
The evening started at supper time with Mexico vs. Chile in the Copa America. The scoreless draw guaranteed that Chile moves on. In turn, that means that Brazil needs only needs one point from their game against Ecuador to move into the last eight.
Ecuador needs to win 2-0 to stand any chance of qualifying for the last eight while the USA’s remote chance of making past the group stage is even more unlikely than it was before this evening. (Warning - if you are taping the Brazil – Ecuador game don’t read to the end of the blog!)
I switched games with around half an hour left in the Mexico game and moved to Japan against Costa Rica in the FIFA under-20 World Cup. With five games also going on in MLS tonight there is no shortage of games to keep up with.
The Japan – Costa Rica match was largely disappointing with Japan unable to show the same jump that was on show against Canada on Sunday. Japan still had the better of the first half but failed to create many clear cut chances. It was Costa Rica’s Steven Perez missed the best chance of the first half when he turned the Japanese defender but shot wide with only the keeper to beat.
The only game of the game came with around a quarter of the game left. Japan was able to work Umesaki clear on the left side of the penalty box and he delivered a perfect feed to Tanaka who had to only redirect the ball into the net from four yards out.
As fulltime beckoned the Ticos’ attacks grew more desperate and only a fine save from Japanese keeper Hayashi with a minute or so left ensured that his side moved into the last sixteen with two straight wins.
Just as he did in the game against Scotland full back Michihiro Yasuda caught the eye with his runs forward and raking cross field passes. We have yet to see how strong he is defensively because after two games he has not been tested.
Then it was over to Brazil vs. Ecuador. Put it this way – the half time highlights could have been dumped and nothing much missed. When a goal finally came early in the second half it was probably fitting that it came from a penalty kick which was awarded after Robinho went looking for an Ecuadorian leg to follow in the box.
The game played out with little else in terms of goal scoring chances and Brazil turned in another stuttering performance. The USA can no longer qualify for the last eight and has only pride to play for tomorrow against Colombia.
Scotland and Nigeria is next.
Tournament Notes
From FIFA.com, “Argentina's 4 goals in 7 minutes against Panama is a record in any FIFA U-20 competition. In previous matches Brazil have managed twice, in 1997, to score 4 goals in 9 minutes. Firstly in their 10-3 win against Korea Republic. Adailton took the score to 2:0 in the 30th minute and to 5:0 by the 39th. The second time, in the same tournament, was in their 10-0 win against Belgium. Roni scored in the 78th minute, Adailton in the 82nd, Alex in the 85th, and Junior in the 87th. Mexico also scored four goals in ten minutes in 1977 against Tunisia (6:0) as did Chile against Honduras in 2005 (7:0).”
“With three goals against Poland, USAs Freddy Adu is the only player to have scored a hattrick in both FIFA youth tournaments. Adu also scored 3 goals on 14 August 2003 in their 6-1 win against Korea Republic in the FIFA U-17 World Cup. Coincidentally both matches ended with the same result”.
You can send any information (fsr@mts.net) that you think might be of interest about the twenty-four countries and I will post a regular selection. If you have a FIFA Under-20 blog go ahead and post your link under comments.
Group F (Victoria, Vancouver) Japan, Scotland, Costa Rica and Nigeria.
Japan arrives at this tournament with a solid record of achievement. Five times in the last six tournaments Japan has made it to knock out stage. On three of those occasions they made it the last eight while in 1999 in Nigeria Japan lost 4-0 to Spain in the final. Frenchman Philippe Troussier, who went on to lead Japan at the 2002 World Cup, had players such as Junichi Inamoto, Shinji Ono and Naohiro Takehara available to him.
Coach Yasushi Yoshida arrives with a team that likely has as much promise as the 1999 edition. Tsukasa Umesaki (Oita Trinita) has already been capped by Japan at the senior level while centre half Yohei Fukumoto (Oita Trinita), Yosuke Kashiwagi (Sanfreece Hiroshima), Atsuto Uchida (Kashima Antlers), and Atomu Tanaka (Albirex Niigata) are all highly touted.
Japan finished second to North Korea in Asian group qualifying having been beaten on penalties in the final. However, it is worth noting that the countries did play each other twice before in 2007 qualifying and Japan won 1-0 and 2-0.
Scotland is one of the surprise qualifiers in this tournament. Scotland took one of the two available spots in the qualifying round of European qualifying before being drawn into a group with France in the elite round. Most pundits expected a Scots’ exit but instead France stumbled when they played to a scoreless tie with Belarus. This left Scotland only needing to avoid defeat against France in order to move on. This they did courtesy of a Steven Fletcher (Hibs) goal.
Fletcher was again prominent in the final round of qualifying although both he and fellow striker Robert Snodgrass missed the final game loss to Spain. Unlike previous editions of Scottish teams at World Cup’s this squad appears to carry a fair amount of striking power. Both Fletcher and Snodgrass are in the Scottish squad while Calum Elliot (Hearts) and Graham Dorrans (Livingstone) also scored important goals during the qualifying rounds.
Lee Wallace (Hearts), Mark Reynolds (Motherwell) and Garry Kenneth (Dundee United) have all played for their clubs in the SPL. The heat of eastern Europe was a problem for Scotland last summer so being based in Victoria with it’s more moderate climate is a major break for the Scots.
Tommy Wilson, one of Scotland’s coaches told the Scotsman newspaper - "We use a lot of role models in video presentations to the boys as part of our preparations. For example, we use a lot of footage of Muhammad Ali, his quotes, clips of him in the gym and the way he totally dominated opponents with both his physical and mental approach.” We will see!!
Costa Rica finished second to Mexico in a two-part CONCACAF qualification process. This is Costa Rica’s fifth appearance in the finals – which considering Costa Rica’s status in CONCACAF is surprisingly low – and two appearances in the second round is the best they have done.
The majority of Coach Geovanny Alfaro’s squad is domestically based with only highly-regarded goalkeeper Alfonso Quesada and defender Dave Myrie (both Cadiz) playing abroad.
Jean Carlos Solorzano carries most of the goal scoring threat while Celso Borges is the creative force in midfield.
Striker Cesar Elizondo (Saprissa) and defender Rudy Dawson (Alajuela) are two other players who are regularly mentioned as key players.
It seems a regular occurrence for Nigeria to arrive in disarray at a major tournament and Canada 2007 seems to be no different. Cancelled training camps, funding disputes and criticism from home are only a few of the obstacles facing this Nigerian team. But perhaps the strangest thing about this squad is the total lack of players from the side that finished as runners-up to Argentina in 2005.
Seven players were eligible to compete again but not one has been named to this squad. What is more only two players out of the pool of twenty-one meet the maximum cut off criteria of 1987. Fourteen players have birth years of 1988 while the remaining five have 1989 listed.
Only four players are currently registered with foreign-based players. If you didn’t know any better you might think Nigeria is more interested in putting players in the shop-window than fielding the best available team.
However, having twice finished as runners-up and once in third place, Nigeria has shown in the past that raw talent can overcome administrative ineptitude so they should not be underestimated.
Predicted finish – 1.Japan, 2.Nigeria, 3.Scotland and 4. Costa Rica.
You can send any information (fsr@mts.net) that you think might be of interest about the twenty-four countries and I will post a regular selection. If you have a FIFA Under-20 blog go ahead and post your link under comments.
On Friday we looked at the results from Under-17 World Cup held in Peru two years ago in the hope that it might provide some clues as to who and what to watch for as the Under-20 World Cup kicks off in Canada on June 30.
Here is a rundown of the stars from the 2005 tournament as picked and described by World Soccer (in quotes) at the time with an update on where they are now.
Carlos Vela (Mexico) Striker 5 goals, Golden Shoe Winner “Tournament top scorer (edit. Golden Shoe winner with 5 goals). Consistently too quick for his marker and finished well, both in the air and with his left foot.”
Where is he now? Vela was transferred to Arsenal from Chivas Guadalajara in 2005. He was subsequently loaned to Celta Vigo but they opted not to keep him for the 2006/07 season and instead he moved to Salamanca of the Spanish Second division. Often played on the left side of midfield Vela still found the net for Salamanca on a regular base. He may return to Celta Vigo (just relegated from La Liga) next season before finally making a move to Arsenal sometime in 2008.
“Ramon (Brazil) Midfield 4 goals Tall, strong attacking midfielder. Needs to improve his discipline but has huge promise.”
Where is he now? At the time of the 2005 Under-17 tournament Ramon was with Atletico Mineiro. He then moved to Corinthians before joining fellow Brazilians Jo, Wagner Love and Daniel Carvalho at CSKA Moscow. Ramon is not in the Brazilian squad of 21.
“Celso Borges (Costa Rica) Midfield 1 goal Playmaker who caught the eye with defence-splitting passes and raking shots.”
Where is he now? Son of former Costa Rica and now Panama Coach Alexandre Guimaraes, Borges is still with Deportivo Saprissa of Costa Rica and continues to improve and mature. Borges will be a key member of the Costa Rica team in Canada.
“Choe Myong #### (North Korea) Midfield 3 goals The “Korean Ronaldo” soon proved to be something different – a midfielder who can pass, shoot, and cross with power and subtlety.”
Where is he now? Choe Myong #### is one of the few - perhaps only - North Korean players playing outside of his country. He now plays for FC Krylya Sovetov Samara in the Russian Premier League. He was injured during most of Asian qualifying and contributed little. Despite reports that he had recovered his fitness he does not appear to be on the North Korean squad for the tournament.
“Ofori Sarkodie (USA) Defender 1 goal A contender for defender of the tournament. Cool, neat and classy in everything he did.”
Where is he now? The 2005 NSCAA/adidas National Youth Player of the Year, currently plays with the University of Indiana although he has trained with the Columbus Crew. Sarkdorie captained the under-17 tea and is in the USA pool for the Under-20 tournament and is likely to make the starting eleven.
“Ceesay Momodou (Gambia) Striker 2 goals Giant striker who terrified defenders with swift turns and strong surges. Needs to work on his left foot, but is certainly one to watch.”
Where is he now? Nicknamed Zico, Momodou missed the African qualifying competition in Congo earlier this year after undergoing surgery in Switzerland late in 2006. Reports indicate that the surgery was needed to clear up an injury that the player had been carrying since 2005. Momodou does not appear on the Gambian under-20 squad list.
So out of the six stars on the Under-17 tournament picked by World Soccer two years ago it looks as if only 50% will be playing at the Under-20s in Canada. A confirmation if it was needed that the gap between promising youngster and emerging star can be a huge one.
On the other side of the equation Anderson (Brazil) was the winner of the Golden Ball at Peru 2005 and was eligible for Canada 2007. However, Anderson has been called up to the senior squad for the Copa America and recently completed a multi million dollar move from Porto to Manchester United.
It is also interesting to see how many players who were young enough to play in 2005 at the under-20s in Holland, but still qualified for Canada 2007 and actually made it.
The winners Argentina could have had both Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero appear in Holland and Canada but we will have to make do with the latter. Runners-up Nigeria had seven players (Daddy Bazuaye, John Obi Mikel, Promise Isaac, Solomon Okoronkwo, Dele Adeleye, Kola Anubi, John Owoeri) who could have played in both tournaments but amazingly none of them have been named to the Nigerian squad.
As chance would have it Chelsea’s John Obi Mikel was in the news last week. He was suspended by the Nigerian FA from all Nigerian national teams after failing to accept a call up to the senior national team.
Canada is the complete opposite to Nigeria. When they traveled to Holland two summer’s ago six players (Jaime Peters, Will Johnson, Jonathan Beaulieu-Bourgault, David Edgar, Andrea Lombardo and Asmir Begovic) were hoping to repeat and all have.
The USA has also made full use of the players who picked up invaluable experience in Holland. Nathan Sturgis and Freddy Adu (now Real Salt Lake teammates) as well as Danny Szetela of the Columbus Crew are on the squad.
South Korea have two returnees (Jong Jin Park and Young Rok Shin) while Panama’s Celso Polo made it but Ivan Rodriguez did not. Carlos Carmona was the youngster in the Chile team in 2005 and now brings experience to the team. However, Japan’s Takayuki Morimoto was unable to make it two appearances at the Under-20 World Cup.
Warm-up Games Some warm-up games have been played over the weekend. New Zealand lost 3-0 to Costa Rica (Borges 2, Solorzano) while the USA beat Chile 2-1. Adu and Rogers scored for the US while Alexis Sanchez got Chile’s goal from the penalty spot.
South Korea scored the only goal of the game to beat the Czech Republic.
Suspensions According to a FIFA media release the following players are not eligible to play in their team's respective first match due to a suspension carried over from previous competition:
Zambia 5 NYAMBE Henry is not eligible to play Match #6: Jordan - Zambia (01.07.2007). Panama 6 CASTANEDA Francisco is not eligible to play Match #3: Korea DPR - Panama (30.06.2007). Argentina 8 SANCHEZ Matias is not eligible to play Match #4: Argentina - Czech Rep. (30.06.2007). CHI 11 GRONDONA Jaime is not eligible to play Match #5: Canada - Chile (01.07.2007). CHI 10 ARENAS Juan is not eligible to play Match #5: Canada - Chile (01.07.2007). CHI 17 MARTINEZ Hans is not eligible to play Match #5: Canada - Chile (01.07.2007). CHI 7 SANCHEZ Alexis is not eligible to play Match #5: Canada - Chile (01.07.2007).
However, I received an e mail from Chile fan Pablo Oliva who tells me that the Chilean FA is still hopeful of having the suspensions for Grondona and Martinez set aside. We will keep you updated on this as this week progresses.
You can send any information (fsr@mts.net) that you think might be of interest about the twenty-four countries and I will post a regular selection. If you have a blog and you have information on the tournament you can post your link under comments.
For those regulars looking for the weekend preview it has been pre-empted by the FIFA Under-20 World Cup blog. However, here are a couple of unrelated articles anyways.
Stephen Brunt in the Globe & Mail has officially declared that soccer has taken root in Central Canada.
We may be three years away from the Finals but qualifying for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa will be getting underway in two months time.
Back to the Under-20s. International age-group championships are extremely difficult to predict because of the constant turnover as players progress. With the exception of Brazil and Argentina, who have both consistently delivered great teams, you are never quite sure what you are going to get from the other countries.
The media tends to relate the strength of teams competing at age-group championships with senior squads. However, it has been shown that this a poor predictor of success. Take Italy, France and Germany for example. In the last seven world cups these countries have delivered between them four World Cups and have been runners-up five times.
Compare that to the twelve Under-20 championships held since 1983 and the same three countries can account for one runners-up spot – that in 1987 when the then West Germany lost to the then Yugoslavia. Drill-down to the under-17 level and it doesn’t get much better – France won in 2001 and West Germany in 1985.
If there are any hints of what to expect, sometimes clues can be found be looking at the countries performance at the Under-17 Championship held two years prior. Although the age groups do not line up perfectly there has only been one occasion out of nine when a top four country at the Under-17s has not at least matched that record two years later at the Under-20s.
And that is not solely down to the traditional powerhouses of South America. The likes of Ghana, Nigeria, Germany and Spain have top four finishes in different age-group competitions two years apart.
So what happened at the Under-17 World Cup held in Peru two years ago? The winners were Mexico who beat Brazil 3-0 in the final. Netherlands took third and Turkey fourth. Only the two finalists out of the final four have qualified for Canada 2007.
Meanwhile five other countries that qualified for Peru 2005 have also made it through the qualification process to the under-20s in Canada. Costa Rica made it to the quarter finals in 2005 before losing to the eventual winners Mexico. Mexico had trailed 1-0 for most of the game before snatching an equalizer with only two minuts remaining. Two goals f
