Serie A kicks off this weekend and here is a quick preview of what might be in store with the dreaded prediction at the end.


Contenders?
When many expected Fiorentina to fold late last season they held their nerve and it paid off with a fourth place finish and a spot in this season’s Champions League. What is more is that of the contenders no other team has done better than Fiorentina at strengthening their squad. Although Ujfalusi will be missed (moved to Atletico Madrid) Cesare Prandelli can look to some excellent acquisitions.

A few years back when he in charge of Parma Prandelli helped Alberto Gilardino become one of Europe’s most sought after strikers. It’s fair to say that Gilardino never reached his potential at Milan but don’t be surprised if he starts scoring regularly once more. (it is also worth noting that Adrian Mutu played with Gilardino at Parma although the Italian only saw sporadic game time in 02/03.) Juan Vargas (Catania) and Zauri (Lazio) add to Fiorentina’s defensive options and Sergio Almiron from Juventus on loan could turn out to be a steal. If Almiron can rediscover his Empoli form then he will add to an already strong midfield.


With Jose Mourinho in charge it will never be quiet and predictable for Inter this season. However, any thoughts of a raft of summer signings have been dispelled with Mancini (Roma) and Muntari (Portsmouth) the only two high profile additions to an already extensive squad.  Adriano returns from a loan spell at Sao Paulo and he probably has one last chance to get his Inter career back on track before he is shipped out. Although there is much talk of Inter’s focus turning to the Champions League this season I’m not sure I believe it.


Juventus’ third place last season surprised a lot of fans but without the pressure of a European campaign Juventus proved to a consistent performer without ever threatening to take the title. An area that begs for improvement is the results away from home and in particular the number of goals conceded. The addition of Olaf Mellberg (defense) and Christian Poulsen (holding midfielder) should improve Juve at the back and Amauri (former Palermo) should contribute double figures in the goal scoring department. Some younger players have been shipped out which would seem to indicate that Juventus are battening down for a tough season on all fronts.  


For the first time in years Milan is not in the UEFA Champions League but is relegated instead to the UEFA Cup. Some may argue that in the absence of the Champions League Milan will be free to concentrate on Serie A. Veterans have gone (Cafu and Serginho) and Gianluca Zambrotta, Ronaldinho and Andryi Shevchenko have arrived at the San Siro along with some young whippersnappers (relatively speaking) such as Mathieu Flamini, Philippe Senderos and high scoring Marco Borriello. How Carlo Ancelotti goes about fitting all these pieces together into a cohesive unit will of particular interest over the first few weeks of the season.


Roma would just not give up last season and pushed Inter right to the final round of games before finally finishing three points behind in 2nd spot. The club has continued to improve under Luciano Spalletti but it difficult to see where any further improvement will come from. John-Arne Riise and Julio Baptista have been added to the squad although Mancini left for Inter. If Roma is to push for the title then it will need Aquilani and De Rossi to step up.  


UEFA Cup prospects?

Napoli at home was a very different prospect than Napoli away last season. Nearly 75% of their points came at home Milan, Fiorentina, Inter, Juventus, Udinese and Sampdoria all left pointless. Defensive problems cost them a lot of points away from home as the conceded 37 goals as opposed to 16 on home turf. No problems on the horizon for Napoli but not much of an improvement either.


Palermo fans are left to mourn the loss of Amauri to Juventus but the money they got did not burn a hole in anyone’s pocket. Palermo has been one of the busiest teams and when the season kicks off this weekend there will be more than a few new faces. Possibly the shrewdest piece of business has been the signing of goalkeeper Marco Amelia from Livorno. Defenders Bova (Genoa) and Carrozzieri (Atalanta) have been brought in while Liverani should add composure and touch to the midfield. Liverani’s presence should also help Antonio Nocerino who arrived as part of the Amauri deal.

Túlio de Melo has parleyed a good season with Le Mans into a Serie A although many suspect that the Brazilian’s performance at the start of last season was a flash-in-the-pan. With the number of new arrivals it make take some time for the new Palermo to bed down which will cause problems for Manager Stefano Colantuono. There again when you consider that Palermo Chairman Maurizio Zamparini hired-fired-rehired him in a ten month period last season Colantuono is probably renting rather than buying.


It turned out to be a good season for Sampdoria as they finished 6th and with 60 points. But it was not a season without highs and lows. Antonio Cassano’s arrival on loan (now permanent) gave Sampdoria a bona-fide match winner and a player that can frighten the daylights of any defence in the world when he is on song. This also got someone who can be his own worst enemy and capable of destroying his own side.

A strong home record was Samp’s foundation last season with only two losses and 18 goals conceded. Eighteen against might not be overly impressive but eight came in just two games – Milan 5-0 and Roma 3-0. If Sampdoria is to move up then they have to hold their home form while improving away from home – only Napoli with 12 losses had more than Sampdoria’s 10. It is hard to discern any significant improvement in the squad and a case could be made that the players leaving (Volpi and Zenoni to Bologna in particular) have not been adequately replaced.


Udinese finished in a very respectable seventh place at the end of last season. Manager Pasquale Marino was widely praised for playing a 4-3-3 formation although the attacking intent did not translate into the goals column – 48 goals was not a great return. Di Natale (17) and Quagliarella (12) carried the scoring load last but help is on the way. Finally two years after signing Alexis Sanchez it looks as if the Chilean will finally turn out for Udinese. However, there looks to be more down side season-to-season for Udinese than upside and they will do well to hold their position.



Safe Mid Table?

Atalanta is the consummate yo-yo team in Europe let alone Italy with 18 relegations and promotions in the last 50 years. That should be enough to caution anyone to pick them for a comfortable mid-table finish. Manager Gigi Del Neri (arguably a yo-yo manger over the last few seasons!) managed to rehabilitate his reputation to a great extent last season has he guided his charges to a 9th place finish. The same finish might be the best that can be expected.


Genoa finished in a very comfortable 10th place last season and if than can reach the same heights this season then they will be punching well above their weight. Marco Borriello scored 19 goals out of a total of 44 and he headed back to Milan this summer. Genoa’s next leading scorer notched 4 and there seems little indication that any of the summer arrivals can come close to filling the void. A plummet into trouble would not be a surprise.


Battling on the European front in the Champions League and domestically was too much for Lazio last season. After breaking into the top four the season before last Lazio slumped to 12th in Serie A last season. During this transfer window Lazio have added some quality players to their squad. After failing to get the necessary documentation twelve months ago it looks as if goalkeeper Juan Carrizo will finally start for the Rome side.

Midfielder Matuzalem left Serie A (Brescia) for Shakhtar Donetsk four summers ago and has now found his way back via a very acrimonious “transfer” involving Real Zaragoza. It’s not clear that the move to Zaragoza has ever been settled – to Shakhtar’s satisfaction anyway – but the Spanish club has agreed to loan the Brazilian to Lazio for the season. Mauro Zarate is another exciting capture and someone capable of adding some flair and goals to the Lazio attack. All-in-all a better season ahead but not enough to get back into a Champions League spot.  


Siena led the league in draws last season (17) and a fine run under manager Mario Beretta helped the club to a record 44 points and 13th place. Beretta resigned at the end of last season and has been replaced by Marco Giampaolo – a coach who seems to be always on the brink of either joining Cagliari or being fired by Cagliari. The summer transfer moves do not appear to have solved their goal scoring problems (only Maccarone with 13 goals was close to adequate) and so mid table is as good as it will get with the threat of a relegation battle a possibility.  


Relegation Battlers?

Bologna returns to Serie A after a three season absence.  They finished as runners up in Serie B last season but achieved an automatic promotion spot. Last season the goals came from Massimo Marazzina (23) but there is a question mark over his ability to contribute at a higher level. Bologna has spent some money in an attempt to maintain a Serie A lifestyle with Volpi and Zenoni (Sampdoria) and Marco Di Vaio some of the better known acquisitions. If the new additions can click then Bologna might enjoy a comfortable season but the priority is still survival.  

If the bookies were not prematurely paying out on Cagliari to be relegated last season I would be surprised. Then Davide Ballardini arrived and the Sardinians picked up 32 points (out of a season total 42) in the second half of the season and Cagliari avoided the drop. Most clubs with have showered Ballardini with riches; Cagliari let him walk away and replaced him with the much travelled Massimiliano Allegri.

As a player Allegri made 13 pit-stops in two decades and as a manager he is now on his fifth club in five seasons. Don’t expect Allegri to be around at season’s end given owner Massimo Cellino for blowing coaches out of the door. David Suazo saved the club two seasons ago, Ballardini pulled off the impossible last season – i


Two draws in last two matches of the 2007/08 season meant that Catania stayed up but for the second straight season it was a close run thing. Catania was winless away from home but how can you explain a home record that contributed 30 out of 37 points and conceded only 14 goals at home – only Juventus had a better defensive record. A large part of Catania’s problems was an anemic attack that scored only 33 goals – only relegated Empoli scored fewer. It is hard to see who of the summer signings are going to score goals so it looks as if will be another close run thing for Walter Zenga’s side.


Everyone’s favourite Flying Donkeys bounced back to Serie A at the first attempt.  Sergio Pellissier’s 22 goals were a major contributor to Chievo’s rapid return and he should get help from recent arrival Antonio Langella from Udinese. Langella had a productive season with Atalanta last season (8 goals) and signed for Udinese at the beginning of the summer. However, things did not work out and he moved again last week – this time to Chievo. There looks to be goals in this Chievo side and probably enough to keep them in Serie A.   


In 2004/05 when Zdenek Zeman was in charge of then newly promoted Lecce there was no more entertaining team to watch. Only then champions Juventus scored more goals (67 to 66) and no team let in more – an incredible 73 goals. Even so, Zeman took the team to a 12th place finish before resigning at the end of the season. Zeman later returned but it was too late to save the side from relegation and this will be their first appearance since demotion in 2006. 

Mario Beretta who produced miracles at Siena last season replaces the man that got the team promoted through a promotion play off, Giuseppe Papadopulo.  Simone Tiribocchi proved the cutting edge up front last season with 17 goals and he will be carrying much of the responsibility. Beretta, however, may be more important than any of the other Lecce summer signings.


Reggina was another club that avoided relegation by the skin of their teeth for the second straight year. The difference last season was that their performances got them into too deep trouble while twelve months before they had what was arguably their best ever season but laboured under the handicap of a points deduction.

Every vital sign moved into reverse gear last season as the goals scored melted away and the defence started to concede at a worrying rate. Only their three wins and a draw in the last four games against their relegation rivals was a source of encouragement. Off the summer acquisition Chilean Carlos Carmona is the most interesting but it is doubtful that the 21-year-old can fix all of Reggina’s problems.


For a side that appeared to have made all the right moves last summer the 2007/08 season was a bitter disappointment for Torino. However, if you want to look on the bright side there is hope behind last season’s statistics. For a start there were 16 draws that with a break here or there could have turned out very differently. There was also Torino’s home form. On the face of 5 wins, 7 draws and another 7 losses is no great shakes but all seven defeats came by a single goal. And although Torino’s goal output rose by 33% it still only generated a paltry 36 goals in 38 games. Rolando Bianchi arrives in the hope that he can find the form that brought him 18 goals alongside Nicolas Amoruso. Amoruso also moved from Reggina to Torino earlier this summer.  If these two can click once more then the long suffering Torino fans may finally get a season to enjoy – relatively speaking.


Prediction (in brackets 2007/08 finish and my prediction one year ago)
1.       Inter (1 – 1)
2.       Roma (2 - 4)
3.       Milan (5 – 2)
4.       Fiorentina (4 – 5)
5.      Juventus (3 – 3)
6.      Palermo (11 – 9)
7.      Sampdoria (6 – 8)
8.      Napoli (8 – 15)
9.      Udinese (7 – 7)
10.    Lazio (12 – 6)
11.    Torino (15-17)
12.    Atalanta (9 – 12)
13.    Bologna (Serie B)
14.    Chievo (Serie B)
15.    Siena (13 – 20)
16.    Lecce (Serie B)
17.    Catania (17 – 19)
18.    R- Genoa (10 – 16)
19.    R- Cagliari (14 – 18)
20.    R - Reggina (16 – 13)


The bigger misses (5 places or more) last season were the three relegated clubs (Empoli, Parma and Livorno), two of the promoted teams Napoli and Genoa, Lazio and the surprise team of last season Siena.

None of the promoted clubs were relegated last and I’m predicting the same this season – admittedly a bit of a long shot. It is worth noting that Empoli slumped from 10th the season previous and Livorno from 11th to relegation.

I don’t have the stats to prove it but Serie A seems to be prone to mid table melt-down - teams plummeting to relegation a season after prospering - to a far greater extent than other big leagues. I could have something to do with teams being pillaged after a good season but as I said I don’t have anything to back that one up.  

Another interesting weekend of football. The "Dream Final" will have to be an unbelievable match to beat out the Chelsea-Blackburn game. How many times do you think Morten Gamst Pedersen has replayed in his mind the header that went inches wide with 8 minutes left?

With the Everton-Charlton game on delay I was sorely tempted to check the score on the internet. Fortunately, I resisted the temptation and an amazing finish was the reward.

In Italy it was like old times with Inter coming back from two goals down to Palermo to draw. Parma have sufferred only one loss in their last 8 games although five other games have finished as draws. Although Ascoli pulled of####ood result against Lazio (2-2) it wil be awfully tough to make up the lost ground. Messina are in free fall so it may come down to Parma, Reggina or Chievo joining the other two.

Barcelona scraped through courtesy of a last minute own goal to extend their lead at the top of La Liga. The schedule favours Barcelona with only three (Atletico, Getafe and Espanyol) of the eight games against top half teams. Of the 31 points dropped by Barcelona this year only 8 have come against bottom half of the table teams and they have yet to lose to a team from #11 down.

Levante became the latest team to drop into the bottom three in Spain. Athletic Bilbao and Celta Vigo under new coach Hristo Stoichkov both won. There is a full schedule of games in Italy this week and a partial schedule in England.

Coming off a 3-0 loss to Sheffield United another loss to Chelsea would leave West Ham at least 5 points from safety and with a much poorer goal difference. Sheffield United faces Manchester United before another 6 point encounter on Saturday - this time against Charlton.

Here are a few articles that have caught my eye recently.

On Wednesday we will find out who will host the 2012 European Championships.

Gabriele Marcotti provides us with the 5 reasons why English clubs are dominating Europe.

David James asks where are all the ####_footballer_ever_com.html">#### football players?

Tom Humphries with an interview with the man who has Sunderland fans believing.

Steven Wells on the annual Softball vs. Soccer wars.

And the nominations for the PFA player and young player of the year are out.