Serie A kicks off this weekend and here is a quick preview of what might be in store with the dreaded prediction at the end.
Contenders? When many expected Fiorentina to fold late last season they held their nerve and it paid off with a fourth place finish and a spot in this season’s Champions League. What is more is that of the contenders no other team has done better than Fiorentina at strengthening their squad. Although Ujfalusi will be missed (moved to Atletico Madrid) Cesare Prandelli can look to some excellent acquisitions.
A few years back when he in charge of Parma Prandelli helped Alberto Gilardino become one of Europe’s most sought after strikers. It’s fair to say that Gilardino never reached his potential at Milan but don’t be surprised if he starts scoring regularly once more. (it is also worth noting that Adrian Mutu played with Gilardino at Parma although the Italian only saw sporadic game time in 02/03.) Juan Vargas (Catania) and Zauri (Lazio) add to Fiorentina’s defensive options and Sergio Almiron from Juventus on loan could turn out to be a steal. If Almiron can rediscover his Empoli form then he will add to an already strong midfield.
With Jose Mourinho in charge it will never be quiet and predictable for Inter this season. However, any thoughts of a raft of summer signings have been dispelled with Mancini (Roma) and Muntari (Portsmouth) the only two high profile additions to an already extensive squad. Adriano returns from a loan spell at Sao Paulo and he probably has one last chance to get his Inter career back on track before he is shipped out. Although there is much talk of Inter’s focus turning to the Champions League this season I’m not sure I believe it.
Juventus’ third place last season surprised a lot of fans but without the pressure of a European campaign Juventus proved to a consistent performer without ever threatening to take the title. An area that begs for improvement is the results away from home and in particular the number of goals conceded. The addition of Olaf Mellberg (defense) and Christian Poulsen (holding midfielder) should improve Juve at the back and Amauri (former Palermo) should contribute double figures in the goal scoring department. Some younger players have been shipped out which would seem to indicate that Juventus are battening down for a tough season on all fronts.
For the first time in years Milan is not in the UEFA Champions League but is relegated instead to the UEFA Cup. Some may argue that in the absence of the Champions League Milan will be free to concentrate on Serie A. Veterans have gone (Cafu and Serginho) and Gianluca Zambrotta, Ronaldinho and Andryi Shevchenko have arrived at the San Siro along with some young whippersnappers (relatively speaking) such as Mathieu Flamini, Philippe Senderos and high scoring Marco Borriello. How Carlo Ancelotti goes about fitting all these pieces together into a cohesive unit will of particular interest over the first few weeks of the season.
Roma would just not give up last season and pushed Inter right to the final round of games before finally finishing three points behind in 2nd spot. The club has continued to improve under Luciano Spalletti but it difficult to see where any further improvement will come from. John-Arne Riise and Julio Baptista have been added to the squad although Mancini left for Inter. If Roma is to push for the title then it will need Aquilani and De Rossi to step up.
UEFA Cup prospects?
Napoli at home was a very different prospect than Napoli away last season. Nearly 75% of their points came at home Milan, Fiorentina, Inter, Juventus, Udinese and Sampdoria all left pointless. Defensive problems cost them a lot of points away from home as the conceded 37 goals as opposed to 16 on home turf. No problems on the horizon for Napoli but not much of an improvement either.
Palermo fans are left to mourn the loss of Amauri to Juventus but the money they got did not burn a hole in anyone’s pocket. Palermo has been one of the busiest teams and when the season kicks off this weekend there will be more than a few new faces. Possibly the shrewdest piece of business has been the signing of goalkeeper Marco Amelia from Livorno. Defenders Bova (Genoa) and Carrozzieri (Atalanta) have been brought in while Liverani should add composure and touch to the midfield. Liverani’s presence should also help Antonio Nocerino who arrived as part of the Amauri deal.
Túlio de Melo has parleyed a good season with Le Mans into a Serie A although many suspect that the Brazilian’s performance at the start of last season was a flash-in-the-pan. With the number of new arrivals it make take some time for the new Palermo to bed down which will cause problems for Manager Stefano Colantuono. There again when you consider that Palermo Chairman Maurizio Zamparini hired-fired-rehired him in a ten month period last season Colantuono is probably renting rather than buying.
It turned out to be a good season for Sampdoria as they finished 6th and with 60 points. But it was not a season without highs and lows. Antonio Cassano’s arrival on loan (now permanent) gave Sampdoria a bona-fide match winner and a player that can frighten the daylights of any defence in the world when he is on song. This also got someone who can be his own worst enemy and capable of destroying his own side.
A strong home record was Samp’s foundation last season with only two losses and 18 goals conceded. Eighteen against might not be overly impressive but eight came in just two games – Milan 5-0 and Roma 3-0. If Sampdoria is to move up then they have to hold their home form while improving away from home – only Napoli with 12 losses had more than Sampdoria’s 10. It is hard to discern any significant improvement in the squad and a case could be made that the players leaving (Volpi and Zenoni to Bologna in particular) have not been adequately replaced.
Udinese finished in a very respectable seventh place at the end of last season. Manager Pasquale Marino was widely praised for playing a 4-3-3 formation although the attacking intent did not translate into the goals column – 48 goals was not a great return. Di Natale (17) and Quagliarella (12) carried the scoring load last but help is on the way. Finally two years after signing Alexis Sanchez it looks as if the Chilean will finally turn out for Udinese. However, there looks to be more down side season-to-season for Udinese than upside and they will do well to hold their position.
Safe Mid Table?
Atalanta is the consummate yo-yo team in Europe let alone Italy with 18 relegations and promotions in the last 50 years. That should be enough to caution anyone to pick them for a comfortable mid-table finish. Manager Gigi Del Neri (arguably a yo-yo manger over the last few seasons!) managed to rehabilitate his reputation to a great extent last season has he guided his charges to a 9th place finish. The same finish might be the best that can be expected.
Genoa finished in a very comfortable 10th place last season and if than can reach the same heights this season then they will be punching well above their weight. Marco Borriello scored 19 goals out of a total of 44 and he headed back to Milan this summer. Genoa’s next leading scorer notched 4 and there seems little indication that any of the summer arrivals can come close to filling the void. A plummet into trouble would not be a surprise.
Battling on the European front in the Champions League and domestically was too much for Lazio last season. After breaking into the top four the season before last Lazio slumped to 12th in Serie A last season. During this transfer window Lazio have added some quality players to their squad. After failing to get the necessary documentation twelve months ago it looks as if goalkeeper Juan Carrizo will finally start for the Rome side.
Midfielder Matuzalem left Serie A (Brescia) for Shakhtar Donetsk four summers ago and has now found his way back via a very acrimonious “transfer” involving Real Zaragoza. It’s not clear that the move to Zaragoza has ever been settled – to Shakhtar’s satisfaction anyway – but the Spanish club has agreed to loan the Brazilian to Lazio for the season. Mauro Zarate is another exciting capture and someone capable of adding some flair and goals to the Lazio attack. All-in-all a better season ahead but not enough to get back into a Champions League spot.
Siena led the league in draws last season (17) and a fine run under manager Mario Beretta helped the club to a record 44 points and 13th place. Beretta resigned at the end of last season and has been replaced by Marco Giampaolo – a coach who seems to be always on the brink of either joining Cagliari or being fired by Cagliari. The summer transfer moves do not appear to have solved their goal scoring problems (only Maccarone with 13 goals was close to adequate) and so mid table is as good as it will get with the threat of a relegation battle a possibility.
Relegation Battlers?
Bologna returns to Serie A after a three season absence. They finished as runners up in Serie B last season but achieved an automatic promotion spot. Last season the goals came from Massimo Marazzina (23) but there is a question mark over his ability to contribute at a higher level. Bologna has spent some money in an attempt to maintain a Serie A lifestyle with Volpi and Zenoni (Sampdoria) and Marco Di Vaio some of the better known acquisitions. If the new additions can click then Bologna might enjoy a comfortable season but the priority is still survival.
If the bookies were not prematurely paying out on Cagliari to be relegated last season I would be surprised. Then Davide Ballardini arrived and the Sardinians picked up 32 points (out of a season total 42) in the second half of the season and Cagliari avoided the drop. Most clubs with have showered Ballardini with riches; Cagliari let him walk away and replaced him with the much travelled Massimiliano Allegri.
As a player Allegri made 13 pit-stops in two decades and as a manager he is now on his fifth club in five seasons. Don’t expect Allegri to be around at season’s end given owner Massimo Cellino for blowing coaches out of the door. David Suazo saved the club two seasons ago, Ballardini pulled off the impossible last season – i
Two draws in last two matches of the 2007/08 season meant that Catania stayed up but for the second straight season it was a close run thing. Catania was winless away from home but how can you explain a home record that contributed 30 out of 37 points and conceded only 14 goals at home – only Juventus had a better defensive record. A large part of Catania’s problems was an anemic attack that scored only 33 goals – only relegated Empoli scored fewer. It is hard to see who of the summer signings are going to score goals so it looks as if will be another close run thing for Walter Zenga’s side.
Everyone’s favourite Flying Donkeys bounced back to Serie A at the first attempt. Sergio Pellissier’s 22 goals were a major contributor to Chievo’s rapid return and he should get help from recent arrival Antonio Langella from Udinese. Langella had a productive season with Atalanta last season (8 goals) and signed for Udinese at the beginning of the summer. However, things did not work out and he moved again last week – this time to Chievo. There looks to be goals in this Chievo side and probably enough to keep them in Serie A.
In 2004/05 when Zdenek Zeman was in charge of then newly promoted Lecce there was no more entertaining team to watch. Only then champions Juventus scored more goals (67 to 66) and no team let in more – an incredible 73 goals. Even so, Zeman took the team to a 12th place finish before resigning at the end of the season. Zeman later returned but it was too late to save the side from relegation and this will be their first appearance since demotion in 2006.
Mario Beretta who produced miracles at Siena last season replaces the man that got the team promoted through a promotion play off, Giuseppe Papadopulo. Simone Tiribocchi proved the cutting edge up front last season with 17 goals and he will be carrying much of the responsibility. Beretta, however, may be more important than any of the other Lecce summer signings.
Reggina was another club that avoided relegation by the skin of their teeth for the second straight year. The difference last season was that their performances got them into too deep trouble while twelve months before they had what was arguably their best ever season but laboured under the handicap of a points deduction.
Every vital sign moved into reverse gear last season as the goals scored melted away and the defence started to concede at a worrying rate. Only their three wins and a draw in the last four games against their relegation rivals was a source of encouragement. Off the summer acquisition Chilean Carlos Carmona is the most interesting but it is doubtful that the 21-year-old can fix all of Reggina’s problems.
For a side that appeared to have made all the right moves last summer the 2007/08 season was a bitter disappointment for Torino. However, if you want to look on the bright side there is hope behind last season’s statistics. For a start there were 16 draws that with a break here or there could have turned out very differently. There was also Torino’s home form. On the face of 5 wins, 7 draws and another 7 losses is no great shakes but all seven defeats came by a single goal. And although Torino’s goal output rose by 33% it still only generated a paltry 36 goals in 38 games. Rolando Bianchi arrives in the hope that he can find the form that brought him 18 goals alongside Nicolas Amoruso. Amoruso also moved from Reggina to Torino earlier this summer. If these two can click once more then the long suffering Torino fans may finally get a season to enjoy – relatively speaking.
Prediction (in brackets 2007/08 finish and my prediction one year ago) 1. Inter (1 – 1) 2. Roma (2 - 4) 3. Milan (5 – 2) 4. Fiorentina (4 – 5) 5. Juventus (3 – 3) 6. Palermo (11 – 9) 7. Sampdoria (6 – 8) 8. Napoli (8 – 15) 9. Udinese (7 – 7) 10. Lazio (12 – 6) 11. Torino (15-17) 12. Atalanta (9 – 12) 13. Bologna (Serie B) 14. Chievo (Serie B) 15. Siena (13 – 20) 16. Lecce (Serie B) 17. Catania (17 – 19) 18. R- Genoa (10 – 16) 19. R- Cagliari (14 – 18) 20. R - Reggina (16 – 13)
The bigger misses (5 places or more) last season were the three relegated clubs (Empoli, Parma and Livorno), two of the promoted teams Napoli and Genoa, Lazio and the surprise team of last season Siena.
None of the promoted clubs were relegated last and I’m predicting the same this season – admittedly a bit of a long shot. It is worth noting that Empoli slumped from 10th the season previous and Livorno from 11th to relegation.
I don’t have the stats to prove it but Serie A seems to be prone to mid table melt-down - teams plummeting to relegation a season after prospering - to a far greater extent than other big leagues. I could have something to do with teams being pillaged after a good season but as I said I don’t have anything to back that one up.
The North American disease strikes again. The hockey play-offs are on and the great North American tradition of rioting when you win gets underway. Surely this must lead to a European ban for all NHL clubs? If you ask me this is why hockey/baseball/basketball/gridiron football will never catch on in the rest of the world. If you can’t even get your reason for wanton destruction right, how can you ever expect normal thugs and hooligans to relate?
Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are a smidgen away from securing their respective league titles. Lyon are being made to work a bit harder to win their seventh consecutive French title although with four games to go and a four point lead on Bordeaux harder it might be but it looks like pretty inevitable anyway.
It’s possible for Inter to win another scudetto if they win (home to Cagliari) and Roma shockingly lose at home to struggling Torino. Not probable, and even so I’m sure Inter fans would rather wait until the Milan derby to sow another title up. That opportunity comes next weekend.
Which brings us to the Premiership and a match that will see Manchester win another Premiership title (I know Chelsea would still be able to catch United on goal difference but a goal difference of at least 20 makes the task and impossibility) or make the race interesting for at least one more week.
The fact that both teams hold a slight edge in their respective Champions League semi finals and this could be the first of two meeting over the next few weeks only adds more flavour to the pot.
No matter the outcome of this game Manchester United will finish the season atop of the mini league that also includes Saturday’s opponents, Arsenal and Chelsea. Going into the game United have 13 points, Chelsea 7, Arsenal 6 and Liverpool with four draws and no wins. Chelsea also enjoy a very good record over Manchester United in the Premiership and have taken more points off of them than any other side.
The defensive records of both teams this season have been outstanding (United 19 against and Chelsea 24 against) and when you add in the fact that the goals for either team have not been coming as freely in the last few weeks an avalanche of goals seems unlikely.
The Everton vs. Aston Villa match holds a lot of promise with Villa three points a flagging fifth place Everton. Only Manchester United have scored more goals in the Premiership this season than Villa (who would have picked that?) and they have recovered from a truly terrible march to score 15 goals in the last three matches – albeit against three of the cellar dwellers.
Birmingham were Villa’s victims last Sunday and find themselves in the last relegation spot. Birmingham desperately need at least a point this weekend against Liverpool and hope that Spurs do them a favour against Bolton and Reading come a cropper at Wigan. That would leave the Brummies ahead of the other two on goal difference and a run-in that has them face Fulham and Blackburn Rovers.
As chance would have it Birmingham are a bit of a bogey side for Liverpool with the Reds only winning twice in 9 Premiership games. A few years back a Championship Birmingham took Liverpool to penalty kicks before losing in the Carling Cup Final of 2001.
In Italy Fiorentina needs to see off sixth place Sampdoria to maintain at least a four point gap on fifth place Milan and to essentially kill off any reasonable hope that Samp might have of securing the fourth and final Champions League spot. Fiorentina have won their last six at home are playing a side that has a on the face of it a relatively poor away record this season. However, three of Sampdoria’s away wins have come in their last four games and only a surprising 1-0 loss against Reggina a couple of weeks ago brought a solid run to an end.
If Fiorentina can win this one then they will be very much in the driving seat with their remaining fixtures against Cagliari, Parma and Torino. On the other hand Sampdoria need the win to cut into Fiorentina’s lead but then have games against Roma, Palermo and Juventus in prospect.
Finally MLS has the first Los Angeles derby of the season and who is betting that this one will finish with eleven-a-side?
Here we go again. The intent is good, using a major tournament as the platform is not such a good idea.
Raphael Honigstein on the consummate late developer Luca Toni.
Last weekend in Serie A six of the top seven teams faced each other. The top three (Inter, Roma and Juventus) all won. The next four teams (Fiorentina, Milan, Sampdoria and Udinese) all suffered losses and remain locked in a tight struggle for the last Champions League spot.
Fiorentina are four points ahead of Milan and Sampdoria and Udinese are a point further behind. Down at the less glamorous end of the league seven teams are in a dog fight to avoid the three drop spots. Last weekend only Empoli (draw), Cagliari and Reggina (wins) did themselves any favours while the woes of Torino, Catania, Parma and Livorno continued.
With five games left until the end of the season this weekend has a schedule that has eight fixtures that are crucial to the title race, the last Champions league spot or relegation. Only Juventus with third place almost guaranteed away to Atalanta, and Siena (eight points above the last relegation spot) versus Genoa (comfortably in eighth) have a “who cares” look about them.
With two successive wins Inter appear to have regained some traction in a bid to win their third scudetto. This weekend Inter is in Turin to play Torino and both teams currently enjoy four point gaps – Inter on second place Roma and Torino on eighteenth place Reggina.
Torino made Walter Novellino the thirteenth (particularly unlucky) coaching casualty of the Serie A season and followed the lead of a number of struggling clubs by bringing back a former coach. In this case Gianni De Biasi who quit the team sitting firmly at the foot of the Spanish Primera Liga Levante to rejoin Torino. Novellino stepped in to replace De Biasi last summer.
Turin’s other team has the second worst home record in Serie A but only two of the sixteen home games this season have been decided by more than a single goal and both times Torino won. A new coach, a home record that is perhaps not as bad as it may appear might add up to a tough assignment for Inter especially given that they will again be missing top scorer Zlatan Ibrahimovic. A knee problem has caused the big Swede to miss the last three matches and the next question whether or not he will be ready for the Milan derby in a fortnight.
Roma appears to have the easier game with slumping Livorno the opposition. Livorno have only one win in their last 15 league games and one win against Roma in Rome in the same number of attempts. Livorno sunk to bottom spot after losing to Cagliari last weekend and although they still have time to escape with games against Milan, Atalanta, Torino and Empoli still to come they will have to start scoring goals more regularly. Seven goals in 15 games have taken them to the precipice.
Reggina pulled off a surprise 1-0 win over Sampdoria last Sunday courtesy o####oal from Franco Brienza. The January transfer window signing from Palermo has now scored seven times and if Reggina are to survive then the former Italy international is the most likely hero. However, considering that Reggina are one of three teams without an away win this season – and have only scored eight goals on the road - any away match is going to be problematic.
This weekend it is Milan at the San Siro and Reggina are likely to face a resurgent Inzaghi who has scored two doubles in Milan’s last two matches. No matter the outcome this weekend Reggina will maintain control of their own fate as they will face fellow strugglers Parma, Catania, Empoli and Cagliari in their final four games.
When coach Davide Ballardini took hold of the Cagliari reigns (the return of another former coach) the club had collected a miserable ten points in their first 17 games. In the next sixteen games another 22 points have been earned and last weekend Cagliari was able to jump two points above the last relegation spot by beating Livorno with a double from Acquafresca.
Another key game this weekend has the Sardinian side up against second from the bottom Empoli. Empoli (with another recalled manager Gigi Cagni) have shown signs of resuscitation with a win and a draw in the last two after a run that saw only a single point from a possible total of 21.
Despite sitting above Empoli, Cagliari are in more need of the win as they finish the season against Inter, Fiorentina, Udinese before a final round game against Reggina. Empoli have to play Genoa and Udinese then finish with Livorno and Reggina.
Further up the table Fiorentina will be hoping to continue a run of eight games that has seen them go W,L after losing to Inter. Palermo have won their last two games (another multi-manager team) but have lost ten times awy from home and only collected twelve points in 16 games. Even a moderately decent road record would have had the Sicilian team challenging for a Champions League position.
The winner of the Sampdoria vs. Udinese match will retain a credible interest in fourth spot while the loser can forget it and battle instead for a UEFA Cup spot. Sampdoria have only lost once at home this season although another six games have finished as draws. Last weekend’s single goal loss to Reggina was the first time Sampdoria have been shut out in fourteen matches while Udinese loss to Roma was their first set back in eight league games.
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites.
Thank you to all who take time to visit this blog and especially to those of you who post your comments and thoughts.
PS - If you have questions please post them on the regular Monday blog. I am unable to answer e mails posted to the inbox on this site.
And one more thing. If you have questions or complaints or compliments about programming please contact Fox Soccer Channel or Fox Sports World Canada directly. I have no control over what the stations televise.
