The North American disease strikes again. The hockey play-offs are on and the great North American tradition of rioting when you win gets underway. Surely this must lead to a European ban for all NHL clubs? If you ask me this is why hockey/baseball/basketball/gridiron football will never catch on in the rest of the world. If you can’t even get your reason for wanton destruction right, how can you ever expect normal thugs and hooligans to relate?
Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are a smidgen away from securing their respective league titles. Lyon are being made to work a bit harder to win their seventh consecutive French title although with four games to go and a four point lead on Bordeaux harder it might be but it looks like pretty inevitable anyway.
It’s possible for Inter to win another scudetto if they win (home to Cagliari) and Roma shockingly lose at home to struggling Torino. Not probable, and even so I’m sure Inter fans would rather wait until the Milan derby to sow another title up. That opportunity comes next weekend.
Which brings us to the Premiership and a match that will see Manchester win another Premiership title (I know Chelsea would still be able to catch United on goal difference but a goal difference of at least 20 makes the task and impossibility) or make the race interesting for at least one more week.
The fact that both teams hold a slight edge in their respective Champions League semi finals and this could be the first of two meeting over the next few weeks only adds more flavour to the pot.
No matter the outcome of this game Manchester United will finish the season atop of the mini league that also includes Saturday’s opponents, Arsenal and Chelsea. Going into the game United have 13 points, Chelsea 7, Arsenal 6 and Liverpool with four draws and no wins. Chelsea also enjoy a very good record over Manchester United in the Premiership and have taken more points off of them than any other side.
The defensive records of both teams this season have been outstanding (United 19 against and Chelsea 24 against) and when you add in the fact that the goals for either team have not been coming as freely in the last few weeks an avalanche of goals seems unlikely.
The Everton vs. Aston Villa match holds a lot of promise with Villa three points a flagging fifth place Everton. Only Manchester United have scored more goals in the Premiership this season than Villa (who would have picked that?) and they have recovered from a truly terrible march to score 15 goals in the last three matches – albeit against three of the cellar dwellers.
Birmingham were Villa’s victims last Sunday and find themselves in the last relegation spot. Birmingham desperately need at least a point this weekend against Liverpool and hope that Spurs do them a favour against Bolton and Reading come a cropper at Wigan. That would leave the Brummies ahead of the other two on goal difference and a run-in that has them face Fulham and Blackburn Rovers.
As chance would have it Birmingham are a bit of a bogey side for Liverpool with the Reds only winning twice in 9 Premiership games. A few years back a Championship Birmingham took Liverpool to penalty kicks before losing in the Carling Cup Final of 2001.
In Italy Fiorentina needs to see off sixth place Sampdoria to maintain at least a four point gap on fifth place Milan and to essentially kill off any reasonable hope that Samp might have of securing the fourth and final Champions League spot. Fiorentina have won their last six at home are playing a side that has a on the face of it a relatively poor away record this season. However, three of Sampdoria’s away wins have come in their last four games and only a surprising 1-0 loss against Reggina a couple of weeks ago brought a solid run to an end.
If Fiorentina can win this one then they will be very much in the driving seat with their remaining fixtures against Cagliari, Parma and Torino. On the other hand Sampdoria need the win to cut into Fiorentina’s lead but then have games against Roma, Palermo and Juventus in prospect.
Finally MLS has the first Los Angeles derby of the season and who is betting that this one will finish with eleven-a-side?
Here we go again. The intent is good, using a major tournament as the platform is not such a good idea.
Raphael Honigstein on the consummate late developer Luca Toni.
Last weekend in Serie A six of the top seven teams faced each other. The top three (Inter, Roma and Juventus) all won. The next four teams (Fiorentina, Milan, Sampdoria and Udinese) all suffered losses and remain locked in a tight struggle for the last Champions League spot.
Fiorentina are four points ahead of Milan and Sampdoria and Udinese are a point further behind. Down at the less glamorous end of the league seven teams are in a dog fight to avoid the three drop spots. Last weekend only Empoli (draw), Cagliari and Reggina (wins) did themselves any favours while the woes of Torino, Catania, Parma and Livorno continued.
With five games left until the end of the season this weekend has a schedule that has eight fixtures that are crucial to the title race, the last Champions league spot or relegation. Only Juventus with third place almost guaranteed away to Atalanta, and Siena (eight points above the last relegation spot) versus Genoa (comfortably in eighth) have a “who cares” look about them.
With two successive wins Inter appear to have regained some traction in a bid to win their third scudetto. This weekend Inter is in Turin to play Torino and both teams currently enjoy four point gaps – Inter on second place Roma and Torino on eighteenth place Reggina.
Torino made Walter Novellino the thirteenth (particularly unlucky) coaching casualty of the Serie A season and followed the lead of a number of struggling clubs by bringing back a former coach. In this case Gianni De Biasi who quit the team sitting firmly at the foot of the Spanish Primera Liga Levante to rejoin Torino. Novellino stepped in to replace De Biasi last summer.
Turin’s other team has the second worst home record in Serie A but only two of the sixteen home games this season have been decided by more than a single goal and both times Torino won. A new coach, a home record that is perhaps not as bad as it may appear might add up to a tough assignment for Inter especially given that they will again be missing top scorer Zlatan Ibrahimovic. A knee problem has caused the big Swede to miss the last three matches and the next question whether or not he will be ready for the Milan derby in a fortnight.
Roma appears to have the easier game with slumping Livorno the opposition. Livorno have only one win in their last 15 league games and one win against Roma in Rome in the same number of attempts. Livorno sunk to bottom spot after losing to Cagliari last weekend and although they still have time to escape with games against Milan, Atalanta, Torino and Empoli still to come they will have to start scoring goals more regularly. Seven goals in 15 games have taken them to the precipice.
Reggina pulled off a surprise 1-0 win over Sampdoria last Sunday courtesy o####oal from Franco Brienza. The January transfer window signing from Palermo has now scored seven times and if Reggina are to survive then the former Italy international is the most likely hero. However, considering that Reggina are one of three teams without an away win this season – and have only scored eight goals on the road - any away match is going to be problematic.
This weekend it is Milan at the San Siro and Reggina are likely to face a resurgent Inzaghi who has scored two doubles in Milan’s last two matches. No matter the outcome this weekend Reggina will maintain control of their own fate as they will face fellow strugglers Parma, Catania, Empoli and Cagliari in their final four games.
When coach Davide Ballardini took hold of the Cagliari reigns (the return of another former coach) the club had collected a miserable ten points in their first 17 games. In the next sixteen games another 22 points have been earned and last weekend Cagliari was able to jump two points above the last relegation spot by beating Livorno with a double from Acquafresca.
Another key game this weekend has the Sardinian side up against second from the bottom Empoli. Empoli (with another recalled manager Gigi Cagni) have shown signs of resuscitation with a win and a draw in the last two after a run that saw only a single point from a possible total of 21.
Despite sitting above Empoli, Cagliari are in more need of the win as they finish the season against Inter, Fiorentina, Udinese before a final round game against Reggina. Empoli have to play Genoa and Udinese then finish with Livorno and Reggina.
Further up the table Fiorentina will be hoping to continue a run of eight games that has seen them go W,L after losing to Inter. Palermo have won their last two games (another multi-manager team) but have lost ten times awy from home and only collected twelve points in 16 games. Even a moderately decent road record would have had the Sicilian team challenging for a Champions League position.
The winner of the Sampdoria vs. Udinese match will retain a credible interest in fourth spot while the loser can forget it and battle instead for a UEFA Cup spot. Sampdoria have only lost once at home this season although another six games have finished as draws. Last weekend’s single goal loss to Reggina was the first time Sampdoria have been shut out in fourteen matches while Udinese loss to Roma was their first set back in eight league games.
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites.
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