Here is the original synopsis and predictions for 2007/08 revisited with the addition of the final finishes, the highs and the lows and a couple of semi interesting statistics. So here is an opportunity to share my gaffs and a couple of thoughts that were reasonably close. And before some of you laugh too hard I will be linking back to the original comments and predictions that were posted back in August 2007 once the Whoops signal stops appearing.
Arsenal
Synopsis – If Arsenal is going to better last season’s record then there are two areas ripe for improvement. The first is their record against lower half opposition – last season Arsenal only won half of these games. The other is to get their noses in front. Last season Arsenal gave up the first goal in twenty Premiership games and although they collected 22 points in these matches (more than any other club) a repeat performance would nix any chance they might have of pushing the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United.
Arsenal needs to improve defensively – particularly on cross balls – and the wide midfield players (Rosicky, Hleb and possibly Eboue) need to chip in with goals. Gunner fans will be looking for Robin Van Persie to establish himself as a top rate striker while new arrival Eduardo Da Silva (work permit granted) needs to show that he can replicate his Dynamo Zagreb form at a higher level.
The departure of Thierry Henry has set off a wave of “Arsenal-in-decline” stories – don’t be surprised if his departure has the reverse effect.
Season’s narrative – Can Arsenal prosper without Thierry Henry?
Prediction–3rd. Actual–3rd. High – 1st Low – 7th
Stat Facts – An improvement of 15 points from last season (5 at home, 10 away) and the highest ever total points recorded by a team finishing 3rd in the Premiership.
Bolton
Synopsis – Although Sam Allardyce resigned before the end of last season this really is the start of the post big-Sam era. His replacement Sammy Lee has to prove that he can successfully move from his coaching position to the number one job – something that others have failed to accomplish at other clubs.
At first blush Lee appears to be mimicking the eclectic mix that was so successful under Allardyce. Arrivals from Europe (Cid, Dzemalli and Harsanyi), a veteran English midfielder written off by others (McCann), an underachieving defender (Samuel) and a bustling hard-working striker who to date has failed to make his mark in the Premiership (Helguson). Toss in a loan deal for Christian Wilhelmsson and you have very much the same recipe albeit with a different cook.
Bolton never dropped lower than 8th all last season in the Premiership - a repeat would be a remarkable achievement.
Season’s narrative – Can Little Sam make Bolton fans forget Big Sam?
Prediction – 15th Actual – 16th High – 13th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Bolton experienced the largest loss in points season over season – 20 fewer than in 2006/07. An unbeaten run of five matches at season’s end that earned Bolton eleven points brought salvation. To generate the points Bolton scored only six goals but conceded only two – just like old times at the Reebok.
Middlesbrough
Synopsis – In the last five seasons Boro has been as high as 7th and as low as 14th. Based on this summer’s moves the team is more likely to finish closer to 14th than 7th.
For all the abuse that is heaped on him Mark Viduka has been a remarkably consistent scorer since he arrived in English football from Celtic in 2000. He has average better than two goals every five game while with Leeds and Boro and that sort of rate is not going to be easy to replace.
Based on past performances Jeremie Aliadiere doesn’t look like an adequate replacement – even though Gareth Southgate has apparently been impressed by the Frenchman’s hunger. Tuncay Sanli is an interesting addition but he would not be the first striker to find the non-stop pace of the Premiership difficult to adapt to.
The scoring load will probably fall on the shoulders of the often transfer-rumored Yakubu Ayegbeni. So far Boro has denied that they are willing to allow him to leave should another club come in with a bid. Boro supporters should hope that the Nigerian striker stays put because without him Middlesbrough might be fighting relegation. With Yakubu a reasonably comfortable lower mid-table position is probably in the cards.
Season’s narrative – Can Boro breakout of mid-table mediocrity?
Prediction – 13th Actual – 13th High – 10th Low - 18th
Stat Facts – Not a head for heights? Boro spent one week in the top ten and only four weeks the season before. Middlesbrough finished the season with two consecutive wins – something they only accomplished one other time during the season – in December they beat Arsenal and Derby County.
Fulham
Synopsis – Lawrie Sanchez has spent a good part of the summer spending money. However, Sanchez may have added to the squad depth but he may not have significantly improved the starting eleven.
Fulham start their season at the Emirates Stadium against Arsenal and a win will equal their away record over the last two seasons. Not hard when the last two seasons have only brought about a win in each. On the road last season Fulham conceded more away goals (42) than any other Premiership club and finished the 2007 season with the longest current run of matches without scoring more than a single goal in a Premiership game – 12.
They also own the current longest sequence since winning by more than a single goal. Fifty Premiership games have come and gone since a 6-1 win over West Brom in February 2006.
Season’s narrative – Will the money spent turnout to be well spent?
Prediction – 18th Actual – 17th High – 9th Low – 19th
Stat Facts – Fulham threw away 27 points from winning positions this season. However, they did finish the season with four wins in their last five matches. The four wins accounted for half of the three-pointers they collected all season. They also finished with three consecutive away wins. Prior to that they had no away wins in 16 games and had only won twice away from home in the last two seasons.
Birmingham
Synopsis – There are very few holdovers from the side that was relegated at the end of the 2006 season. Lat summer Steve Bruce cleaned house and it led to promotion. Twelve months on and has been busy once more. In midfield Fabrice Muamba is now a permanent fixture after spending last season at St. Andrews on loan from Arsenal. He’s joined in midfield by French international Olivier Kapo (5th team since 2004). Gary McSheffrey proved to be a shrewd acquisition from Coventry City in August 2006 and he could be set to make an impression in the Premiership.
Up front Gary O’Connor will be looked to for goals after signing from Lokomotiv Moscow although Nicolas Bendtner (returned to Arsenal after a loan spell) will be missed. Birmingham conceded the second fewest goals in the Championship last season but Bruce has given himself some new options. Only Bruno N’Gotty has left while Ridgewell, Queudrue, Parnaby and Brazilian Schmitz (presently carrying an injury) have been added. Ghanaian World Cup goalkeeper Richard Kingson has signed although it is not clear whether Steve Bruce sees him as a replacement or back up for Colin Doyle.
Casting a potential shadow over the club is the ownership ambition of Hong Kong businessman Carson Yeung. Yeung has already bought 30% of the club and has plans to acquire the remaining shares. Full control for Yeung combined with a poor start and Birmingham may become the Hearts of the EPL.
Season’s narrative – Has Steve Bruce learned lessons from Birmingham’s relegation in 2006?
Prediction – 17th Actual – 19th High – 11th Low – 19th
Stat Facts – If half time results had held Birmingham would have finished in a comfortable 10th position. Only Derby County finished with fewer away points while the Birmingham defense only kept three clean sheets all season – a record shared with Derby County.
Liverpool
Synopsis – Last season’s challenge for the league was almost over before it began as Liverpool faltered out of the gate. That, combined with poor away form that brought only six wins away from Anfield negated an excellent home record. If Liverpool is to challenge for the league title then a strong start is mandatory.
Based on the moves that Rafa Benitez has made this summer he must be happy with his defense. Torres, Babel, Benayoun and Voronin have all been brought to Anfield to either score or create goals. Lucas Leiva arrives with a great reputation although he will have a difficult time breaking into the Liverpool midfield.
With Fernando Torres carrying the mantle of the Premiership’s most expensive summer signing most of the spotlight will be on the Spaniard. Views on the striker are polarized – the naysayers point to his average of around two goals every five games for Atletico Madrid. His supporters are quick to indicate that he is only 23-years-old and his Atletico strike rate is impressive given the club’s overall goal tally.
Liverpool finished 21 points behind the champions Manchester United last season and it will need a Herculean effort to close that gap.
Season’s narrative – Can Fernando Torres deliver the goals that Liverpool need?
Prediction – 4th Actual – 4th High – 1st Low – 9th
Stat Facts – Liverpool tied with Blackburn Rovers and Tottenham Hotspur for the most draws – 13. Only Manchester United scored more home goals than Liverpool (47 to 43). Ironically Liverpool gained four fewer points at home this season compared with last campaign although away points went from 22 to 34.
Fernando Torres became the first Liverpool player to score 20 Premiership goals since Robbie Fowler over a decade ago. What’s more of his 24 markers only one came from a set-piece. No other player scored more Premiership goals this season from open play.
Reading
Synopsis – Last summer critics were aghast when manager Steve Coppell decided to keep faith with the players that had secured promotion for Reading. When the Premiership kicked off last season not one Reading player had top flight experience in England.
However, Coppell’s gut instinct was spot on and Reading cruised through their first ever season in the Premiership. Once again, manager Steve Coppell appears to be largely content with his Reading squad.
Full back Emerse Fae was signed late last week from relegated side Nantes for a record club fee and joins another French defender Kalifa Cisse signed from Portuguese club Boavista. Leaving the Madjeski Stadium are little used full back Greg Halford (only signed from Colchester in January but sold on to Sunderland at a $2M+ profit) and influential midfielder Steve Sidwell (Chelsea on a Bosman transfer). The question of how and who will replace Sidwell (former Arsenal player) is still to be answered.
Last season Kevin Doyle carried much of scoring load with 13 league goals and although no other Reading player hit double figures 13 other players did chip in with goals through the Premiership season. Leroy Lita enjoyed a good run of scoring with six of his seven goals coming during and just after the Xmas period. Fellow striker Dave Kitson only managed two goals although he missed almost six months of the season after being injured on the opening day of last season.
Season’s narrative – Can Reading avoid the second-season jinx?
Prediction – 11th Actual – 18th High – 7th Low – 18th
Stat Facts – Reading only picked two points after being in a losing position – tied with Everton. The bottom fell out of Reading’s season both home and away. Compared to last season they collected 9 fewer points at home and 10 fewer away from home. The swing in goal difference – from +5 a year ago to -25 this May.
Blackburn
Synopsis – If Blackburn can hold on to the likes of Benni McCarthy and Morten Gant Pederson by the time the transfer closes then the pre-season can be regarded as a success. The form of McCarthy and Pederson last season was key contributors to a midway league finish and an FA Cup run that finished with an extra time semi final loss to Chelsea. Given the injuries to a number of key players last season it was a remarkable achievement by Mark Hughes’ side.
The arrival of goalkeeper Gunnar Nielsen may be more about Blackburn planning for a time when Brad Friedel will no longer be patrolling the penalty area while Maceo Rigters joins the club on the back of a series of great performances at this summers UEFA under-21 Championship.
Roque Santa Cruz arrives at Ewood Park with a great reputation but one that is not supported by the stats. A goal every five games for Bayern Munich is a disappointing return for a player who appears to have all the right tools. A resurrection at Ewood Park or a stop on the way to lower level obscurity?
Doubtless Blackburn will be as feisty as last season although a reduction in the number of penalties conceded (11) and red cards received (5) might help them.
Season’s narrative – Can Benni McCarthy maintain his spectacular form of last season?
Prediction – 9th
Actual – 7th High – 3rd Low – 10th
Stat Facts – Blackburn fought back from losing positions to pick up an additional 20 points – only Arsenal with 21 points was better. Blackburn only dropped six points (3 draws) at home to bottom half of the table teams.
West Ham United
Synopsis – A good number of players have come and gone since last season’s great escape but most of the attention this summer has been on Carlos Tevez. Now that Tevez has finally left West Ham fans can now focus their attention on the new season.
Manager Alan Curbishley has opted to strengthen the midfield and attack while keeping largely keeping faith with the defenders. Scott Parker will be reunited with his old Charlton boss and Freddie Ljunberg can still contribute goals if he can stay fit. However, French midfielder Julien Faubert will have to wait another six months at least before seeing Premiership action after rupturing an Achilles tendon in a warm up match.
The loss of striker Dean Ashton for almost all of last season to injury was a devastating blow to West Ham and hopes are high that Ashton’s injury woes are a thing of the past. He scored against his former club Norwich in a friendly match last week. A partnership with the fleet-footed Craig Bellamy might be a source of much needed goals for the Hammers.
Season’s narrative – Can West Ham bounce back from a traumatic 2006/07 season?
Prediction – 14th
Actual – 10th High – 5th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – In total West Ham spent 24 weeks and 18 out of the last 19 weeks in 10th spot. West Ham only won two consecutive games once this season – in September 3-0 wins over Reading and Middlesbrough.
Sunderland
Synopsis – Roy Keane was the story of last season’s Coca cola Championship and is likely to be one of the stories of this season’s Premiership. When he arrived a drop into League One looked to be a more realistic prospect than promotion back to the Premiership. But Keane set about the task of reinvigorating one of the great teams of years past.
Over twenty players were signed or moved on as Sunderland moved from 23rd spot to league champions. Keane has also endeavored to change the club culture as he insisted on pictures and mementos of past triumphs be displaced around the stadium and kyboshed the idea of the club publicly “celebrating” the promotion.
With only two players shipping out so far it looks as if Keane is intent on improving the depth of his player pool while focusing on younger players who should, in theory, still have room to improve.
Kieron Richardson should get a chance to nail down a consistent starting position after only spot duty with Manchester United. Michael Chopra returns to the North-East only twelve months after leaving Newcastle for Cardiff City. Chopra had been unable to break into the Newcastle starting line-up but 22 goals for Cardiff in the Championship last season had many questioning Newcastle’s decision to give up on the 23-year-old.
Centre half Russell Anderson is an intriguing buy for only $2M from Aberdeen. The 28-year-old has up to now played his entire career with Aberdeen and developed into one most consistent players in Scotland. Many believe that if Anderson had opted to move to a bigger club earlier in his career his he would have been capped more than nine times for his country.
Season’s narrative – Shaped by Brian Clough and Sir Alex Ferguson is Roy Keane the next great Premiership manager?
Prediction – 16th Actual – 15th High – 4th Low – 19th
Stat Facts –Sunderland may have been one of six teams that failed to collect 40 points but they still gained more points this season than in their two previous Premiership incarnations combined. Sunderland did however have the longest losing sequence of any Premiership team away from home with 10.
Manchester United
Synopsis – Sir Alex Ferguson has made a career out of proving his critics wrong so it would foolhardy to predict that United will not retain the title won last season. However, the planets really did align for United in 2006/07. Vidic established himself as the type of physical centre back United had been missing since the long ago departure of Jaap Stam; Paul Scholes orchestrated from the midfield rolling back the years as he gathered, prompted and dissected; Ryan Giggs was another who enjoyed an Indian Summer; Cristiano Ronaldo became the best player in the Barclay’s Premiership.
Can it happen again? Owen Hargreaves has been brought in to provide a more solid defensive shield in midfield while Nani and Anderson look to be the heirs to Scholes and Giggs. The “loan” of Carlos Tevez has now been settled and he will add some extra fire power up front - an extremely exciting addition to the Old Trafford staff. On paper United have strengthened the midfield and attack. However, should Gabriel Heinze be granted his wish to move then United’s back four might be a bit more susceptible to an injuries and/or suspensions.
Season’s narrative – How will Sir Alex Ferguson integrate all his attacking options while ensuring that the backdoor remains bolted?
Prediction – 2nd Actual – 1st High – 1st Low – 16th
Stat Facts – United spent 17 weeks in top spot and maintained that position from round 29 onwards. They claimed 52 of a possible 57 points at home dropping to Reading in the first game of the season and losing to Manchester City. United only conceded three goals in the last ten minutes of Premiership games this season – William Gallas (Arsenal 2-2), Matthew Upson (West Ham 2-1 loss) and a penalty from Michael Ballack (Chelsea 2-1) loss.
Everton
Synopsis – One look at the last five seasons should have Everton fans cringing as new season approaches. Each good season has been followed by disappointment and after last season’s sixth place finish a drop is in the cards.
However, if the Toffees can match last season’s performance of not losing more than two consecutive games then things may not turn out so bad. Moyes will also be eyeing the 13 games that finished as draws last season as a possible area for improvement.
With James Vaughn out for an extended period Everton may still make a move for a striker should one become available. The arrival of Steven Pienaar on loan should add more depth and a bit of goal scoring (15 goals in little less than 100 games during his time with Ajax) to the midfield. He will join the likes of Manuel Fernandez, Mikel Arteta and Tim Cahill in a midfield that if it is gels could be a stand-out in the league.
David Moyes will probably slot Phil Jagielka (from Sheffield United) into a back four that improved significantly as last season progressed.
Season’s narrative – Will Everton slip again? Prediction – 8th Actual – 5th High – 1st Low – 10th
Stat Facts – Everton only picked up two points over the entire season after being in a losing position but finished their highest ever Premiership points total. In the last four season’s Everton has finished 4th, 11th, 6th and 5th.
Aston Villa
Synopsis – Last season Villa may have finished 11th in the Premiership but they needed a nine-game unbeaten run at the end of the season to avoid a relegation dogfight. Martin O’Neill may achieved his initial objective of making Villa a difficult team to beat (only ten losses in thirty-eight games) but if his side is up the table then a good number of last season’s league high 17 draws need to turn into wins. That means more goals are needed from the strikers and from the midfield. Another ten goals and the defense holding firm could mean a move into the top six.
The jury is still out on John Carew (7 clubs in 9 seasons) but the arrival of Marlon Harewood gives O’Neill another option up front. O’Neill has under whelmed most Villa fans with the signing of Harewood but remember this is the same manager that resurrected the career of Chris Sutton. Gabriel Agbonlahor was a revelation last season but he may find that the second season is harder than the first. Nigel Reo-Coker will replace Gavin McCann and should bring more vigour and pace to the centre of the Villa midfield.
Villa had the sixth best defensive record last season but there is still room for improvement. An injury free season for Martin Laursen (he’s averaged less than 10 games a season since arriving from Milan in the summer of 2004) would certainly help while O’Neill may yet sign another goalkeeper to compete with Thomas Sorenson.
Overall the departures far exceed the arrivals at Villa Park which might lead us to conclude that Martin O’Neill is willing to go with some younger players.
Season’s narrative – With money going unspent will it turn out to be a false economy by Martin O’Neill?
Prediction – 6th Actual – 6th High – 5th Low – 17th
Stat Facts – Villa finished as the Premiership’s third top scorers behind Manchester United and Arsenal with 71 goals scored. Last season they scored 43 times. The extra goals (although they also conceded 10 more) helped them to five more wins than last season although their losses (10) remained the same.
Newcastle
Synopsis – Where do you start when it comes to Newcastle United? An incredibly well-supported club inadequately led over the years by bungling directors and often managers, is as good a place to start as any. But since the end of last season the club has been bought by Mike Ashley (although there is no guarantee that he will be any better than the others who have come before) and Sam Allardyce has taken over the managerial reins. But even then there have been consistent rumours that Allardyce would not have been the new owner’s pick had he been able to start with a clean slate.
As it is Allardyce has indicated that he is still in the market for some experienced players but even without any additional moves the spine of this team looks much stronger. New arrivals Czech defender David Rozehnal and Brazilian Cacapa will probably be the first choice centre back pairing while Joey Barton will become the fulcrum of the midfield. Up front Viduka and Smith (reunited after playing together at Leeds) will provide some added presence to a front line that was on the small side last season. Martins and Owen (depending on the combination) should benefit from the addition of Viduka and Smith.
Increased goal production is a priority for a team that was shut-out 17 times last season, and 16 times the season before.
Season’s narrative – Can Sam Allardyce bring real hope and progress to the long suffering Newcastle faithful?
Prediction – 10th Actual – 12th High – 1st Low – 14th
Stat Facts – In 2006/07 Newcastle enjoyed the 7th best record against teams in the top ten. This season they collected only 10 points from top half teams. But Newcastle still finished with the same number of points as last season (43) and improved their overall standing by one place.
Derby
Synopsis – Wining the Premiership play off is always a cause for great celebration but it soon dissipates as the challenge of staying in the top league sinks in. Manager Billy Davies has some good young players in the squad but overall it looks awfully like a squad built to do well in the Championship rather than the Premiership.
Robert Earnshaw (Derby’s record signing) will have another chance (he was with West Brom from 2004 to 2006) to show that can score goals regularly in the Premiership (to date 12 goals in 43 appearances) as he has done in the Championship (19 last season in an injury affected season). Steve Howard (16 goals) will likely team up with Earnshaw in attack.
Centre back Claude Davis who was relegated with Sheffield United last season is another player to be given a chance to prove his worth in the top flight.
Season’s narrative – How many times will Derby be described as gallant losers?
Prediction – 19th Actual – 20th High – 7th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Derby County now owns almost every Premiership record for futility.
Chelsea
Synopsis – Peace has broken out at Stamford Bridge. The enemy, for the moment at least, is the other nineteen teams of the Barclay’s Premiership and on paper this is the strongest squad that Mourinho has had since his arrival in the summer of 2004.
If Petr Cech can avoid injury it will only add to a defense that led the Premiership with 22 clean sheets. The on-going right back problem may remain although rumours persist that Sevilla’s Daniel Alves is on his way to Stamford Bridge. A work permit has been granted for Alex so the last season’s centre back crisis is less likely to reoccur - Tal Ben Haim as a squad player will also help.
That will allow Michael Essien to play is his more natural position in midfield with all the resulting benefits. The talk is a return to a 4-3-3 formation and if Mourinho decides to go that route then it is difficult to see how Michael Ballack and Andriy Shevchenko will fit in - essentially the same question as last year at this time.
Malouda was France’s player of the year and he carries a scoring threat. His work rate plus an ability to get past players makes him a great addition to the Chelsea squad. Given that Chelsea’s goal production dropped by 10 goals last season, more goals will be one of the critical factors if Chelsea is to make it a third Premiership title in four seasons.
Season’s narrative – Can Chelsea maintain focus and stop the in-fighting and strength sapping controversy?
Prediction - Champions Actual – 2nd High – 1st Low – 7th
Stat Facts – Chelsea only spent one week in first place – that came in round 4. Chelsea remains unbeaten at home for another season and collected exactly the same number of points as in 2006/07 – 43 points. Contrast these totals with the 55 points and 47 points they gained at home when winning the league in 2006 and 2005 and ironically you can see where Chelsea needs to improve. Chelsea’s impressive away form continued this season – 42 points from a possible 57 which is up two from the previous season.
Tottenham Hotspur
Synopsis – Martin Jol has been one of the busier managers this summer with another raft of new signings. Spurs’ start last season was woeful and they must find a way to integrate their new signings quickly if the hope to improve on their 5th place finish of the last two seasons.
When the team began to click last season goals were not a problem. Unfortunately as quick as Spurs could score them they let goals in as well. In all Premiership games involving Spurs produced 111 goals – more than any other Premiership team – but Spurs finished with a goal difference of only +3.
The return of a fully fit Ledley King will help plug the holes at the back and it is doubtful that England keeper Paul Robinson can produce back-to-back mediocre seasons. Younes Kaboul arrives with glowing recommendations. Youngster Gareth Bale (watch out for his free kicks) arrives from Southampton and is expected to solve the ongoing left back problem at White Hart Lane. However, there doesn’t appear to be a ready made solution at hand on the left side of midfield.
With a price tag of $35M the expectations for Darren Bent are justifiably high and many will be watching to see how Jol goes about fitting the former Charlton player into a strike force that already has Berbatov, Robbie Keane and Jermain Defoe pushing for a spot.
Season’s narrative – Can Spurs spending finally deliver some silverware as well as entertainment?
Prediction – 5th Actual – 11th High – 9th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Spurs set a record for points lost from a winning position – 33 over the season. They also gained 14 fewer points than they did twelve months ago and that means they have slipped 19 points from two seasons ago. This season saw Spurs participate in another galaxy of goals – this time their 38 games produced 127 (66-61) goals up from 111 (57-54) the season before.
Portsmouth
Synopsis - Pompey was the moved improved team last season so expectations have grown since the club just avoided relegation at the end of the 2006 season. Portsmouth’s improvement was almost exclusively on account of their form at Fratton Park. Sixteen more points were secured at home last season over the previous season and only the top four lost fewer home matches. Only three teams - Bolton, Charlton and Chelsea – left Fratton Park with full points. Harry Rednapp will focus on significantly improving Pompey’s away form which was poor last season - three wins and only 16 points was a poor return.
Pompey appears to have strengthened throughout their line up. Sylvain Distin is a good addition to the defense – particularly if Sol Campbell should up and leave – while Sulley Muntari and Arnold Mvuemba will join the likes of Gary O’Neil and Matthew Taylor in a workman like but effective midfield.
Although Kanu’s future at Fratton Park is still undecided the arrival of David Nugent and Nigerian John Utaka should add to Pompey’s goal scoring threat. These two could be become very important players at Portsmouth.
However, the signing of Hermann Hreidarsson should be enough to sober up any Pompey fans dreaming of 2008 glory. Since arriving in England in 1997 Hreidarsson has played for Crystal Palace, Brentford, Wimbledon, Ipswich and Charlton. Only Brentford escaped relegation while the Icelandic international was on the books.
Season’s narrative – Can Portsmouth become road warriors?
Prediction – 7th Actual – 8th High – 4th Low – 15th
Stat Facts – Portsmouth had the most consecutive wins away from home this season - 6. When opening the scoring Pompey was the only side with a 100% record 14 out of 14. But they did fail to find the mark 15 times - only Sunderland and Derby were worse. Even so Portsmouth improved on last season’s previous high water mark of a 9th place finish and 54 points with three more points and one place higher.
Manchester City
Synopsis – If City supporters felt as if they spent last season in purgatory, the good news is that miserable situation may get better. The bad news is that it might not get all that much better even though a lot of cash has been splashed this summer.
Sven Goran Eriksson, successful in Sweden, Italy and Portugal, has been throughout his career a counter-attacking coach and so the City Of Manchester Stadium may again be a ground where thrills are administered from a drip. However, given that City only scored ten goals at home all season and set a new top flight record for scoring futility in the process it really can’t get any worse.
Bulgarian Martin Petrov looks to be a good acquisition and Geovanni has been brought in to add some craft in the last third of the field. Since his move to Europe the 27-year-old has done little to fulfill his earlier promise – City might be his last chance. Swiss youngster Gelson Fernandes is another recruit and he will battle for a midfield spot.
Rolando Bianchi was a scoring sensation (18 goals) with Reggina last season but he has little else in his career to substantiate the fee of over $16M that City paid for his services. A few seasons ago when with Lecce Bulgarian Valeri Bozhinov was one of the great young up and coming players. Since then his career has been moving but more sideways than ahead. If the pairing can hit it off then City’s prospects will look a lot rosier. However that is a very big if.
Elano, Javier Garrido and Vedran Corluka were added at one fell swoop last week bringing new signings so far to 8 and not one English player amongst them. With Sylvain Distin off to Portsmouth, Eriksson will likely opt to move Micah Richards to centre back. Eriksson will focus on making his side more difficult to beat but from there on he may run out of ideas – on the field anyway.
Season’s narrative – Is the Manchester City secretarial pool safe?
Prediction – 12th Actual – 9th High – 1st Low – 9th
Stat Facts – Of the top ten teams only Manchester City show up in the bottom half of the “second-half” table. City matched their best ever Premiership placing of ninth and could have improved on that if that had been able to hold on to a modicum of their early season home form. City took a maximum twenty-seven points from their first nine matches at the City of Manchester Stadium but only ten points from their last ten games at home. Even so City finished with a season-to-season improvement of 13 points.
Wigan
Synopsis – Apart from a relegation saving final day of the season win over Sheffield United the latter part of last season is something that Wigan do not want to replicate. Last season Wigan took 18 points from their first 12 games; and 20 points from their other 26 games. They also conceded more goals at home (30) than any other team and suffered more losses at home than any other team in the Premiership – 10. And just for good measure Wigan led the Premiership in the unwanted category of points dropped from winning positions – a massive 26 points.
More than enough for new manager Chris Hutchings to work on you would think. He will be hoping that injury-dogged keeper Chris Kirkland stays. In front of Kirkland the arrival of Titus Bramble and Mario Melchiot is to say the least being met with some raised eyebrows.
Michael Brown brings his unique competitive (I’m being kind) qualities to the JJB along with former WBA midfielder Jason Koumas. Up front Antoine Sibierski is the only addition and it is doubtful that the 33-year-old Frenchman is suddenly going to become a regular goal scorer.
Season’s narrative – Who will replace Chris Hutchings when he is fired in November?
Prediction – 20th Actual – 14th High – 1st Low – 19th
Stat Facts – After spending nine of the first 24 rounds in the relegation zone Wigan “escaped” never to return over the remaining 14 rounds. With Steve Bruce in charge Wigan won eight, lost eight and drew eight.
Actual Prediction Manchester United 1 2 Chelsea 2 1 Arsenal 3 3 Liverpool 4 4 Everton 5 8 Aston Villa 6 6 Blackburn 7 9 Portsmouth 8 7 Manchester City 9 12 West Ham United 10 14 Tottenham Hotspur 11 5 Newcastle 12 10 Middlesbrough 13 13 Wigan 14 20 Sunderland 15 16 Bolton 16 15 Fulham 17 18 Reading 18 11 Birmingham 19 17 Derby 20 19
And finally I took a look back to your comments from August 2007.
From what I can see nobody got the top three correct let alone the top five although there were around ten of you that correctly chose United followed by Chelsea. The relegation predictions came no closer to reality. No one got all three right although there were a solid number of you who targeted Birmingham and Derby County.
For all of you who contributed thank you and a special award to andesras6292 who wrote on August 14, 2007 – “bobby your predictions BLEEP. and anyone who think arsenal is going to finish top 3 are crazy the top 3 are going to be liv'pool chelsea and man utd not arsenal. and liv'pool are going to stink because torres isnt good at all i dont see whjat people see in him he cant even score a one on one. last game he missed world class chances and if he is world class he should have scored he is just a overpaid bad striker and isnt going to be good for liv'pool.”
andesras6292 – where ever you are – congratulations. You my friend, are without a doubt this blog’s version of Derby County 2007/08.
Real Madrid has secured another Spanish Championship, Bayern has done the same with the Bundesliga while Inter remains within touching distance of a third consecutive scudetto.
Elsewhere Ligue Une could take an interesting turn this weekend as leaders Lyon are at home to France’s surprise package AS Nancy.
Nancy leaped over Marseilles last weekend and currently occupies the third and final Champions League spot. To grab the final spot Nancy needs to match Marseille's results over the next two games – this weekend at Lyon and after that at home to Rennes.
If it is goals that you are looking for then AS Nancy is not going to be your cup of tea. They have recorded seventeen clean sheets in 36 starts, conceded a miserly twenty-six goals while scoring a parsimonious forty-two goals.
Lyon have recorded a win, a loss and 3 draws in last 5 matches and are dormie two over second place Bordeaux. However, they can take some comfort from their weekend opponents away record this season – only two wins, ten draws and six losses so far.
Lyon finishes with a match against 15th place Auxerre while Laurent Blanc’s Bordeaux faces two bottom half sides in Sochaux and Lens.
The EPL goes into Sunday’s final games with the title, the remaining UEFA Cup spot and two tickets (complete with parachute payments) to the Championship still to be decided. Although Manchester United appears to have the tougher task they also know that they only have to match Chelsea’s result in order to secure back-to-back Premiership titles for the first time since 2001.
Since taking over at the JJB, Steve Bruce has brought some defensive organization and grit to Wigan. With clean sheets in seven of their last eleven games and thirty-two points from Bruce’s 23 games in charge Wigan are enjoying their best run of results since their early splash when they joined the Premiership back in the 2005/06 season.
On the down side Wigan are facing a United side that has a 100% record in five Premiership matches between the the two while scoring 16 goals to Wigan’s three. Strangely all three goals for Wigan have come from defenders. Toss in for good measure that Steve Bruce’s record against Manchester United is nine matches without a win then the league leaders will go into the game with enough good omens to satisfy the most superstitious of fans.
Chelsea are faced with a situation of doing their absolute best but finding out late Sunday afternoon that even that may not be good enough to capture a third Premiership title in four seasons. Theoretically Bolton are still not safe from the spectre of relegation but it requires not only wins for Fulham or Reading but also a huge winning margin combined with Bolton being taken to the Stamford Bridge cleaners.
It is testament to how badly Reading are playing that even a trip to woeful Derby calls into question Reading’s ability to score a goal let alone get three points. Steve Coppell’s side are on the longest current streak in the Premier League without a goal of 6 matches or 551 minutes and need to better Fulham’s result and at least match Birmingham’s if they are to line up in the Premiership in August.
Derby also has a goal (really two goals) going into this game. Derby needs to score two more in order to overtake the Premiership low of 21 in a season set by Sunderland scored five years ago.
Fulham visits FA Cup Finalists Portsmouth with 3 wins in their last four games and last weekend they finally put together back to back wins this season. Fulham are winless at Pompey (2 losses and 2 draws) but appear to have convinced most fans that they can get the win that they need to stay up.
Birmingham is in the most precarious position – the bottom version of Chelsea. They could put in a season-best performance at home to Blackburn but still not beat the drop if other results conspire against them.
Of the nine Premiership matches between these two only one has been decided by more than one goal. Birmingham’s home record (a single home loss since Christmas) has proved to be their flotation device although by the same token the defense has failed to record a clean sheet since the Boxing Day win over Boro.
If Fulham and Reading should both lose then Birmingham could survive with a draw but playing for such an outcome would be a huge gamble.
The North American disease strikes again. The hockey play-offs are on and the great North American tradition of rioting when you win gets underway. Surely this must lead to a European ban for all NHL clubs? If you ask me this is why hockey/baseball/basketball/gridiron football will never catch on in the rest of the world. If you can’t even get your reason for wanton destruction right, how can you ever expect normal thugs and hooligans to relate?
Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are a smidgen away from securing their respective league titles. Lyon are being made to work a bit harder to win their seventh consecutive French title although with four games to go and a four point lead on Bordeaux harder it might be but it looks like pretty inevitable anyway.
It’s possible for Inter to win another scudetto if they win (home to Cagliari) and Roma shockingly lose at home to struggling Torino. Not probable, and even so I’m sure Inter fans would rather wait until the Milan derby to sow another title up. That opportunity comes next weekend.
Which brings us to the Premiership and a match that will see Manchester win another Premiership title (I know Chelsea would still be able to catch United on goal difference but a goal difference of at least 20 makes the task and impossibility) or make the race interesting for at least one more week.
The fact that both teams hold a slight edge in their respective Champions League semi finals and this could be the first of two meeting over the next few weeks only adds more flavour to the pot.
No matter the outcome of this game Manchester United will finish the season atop of the mini league that also includes Saturday’s opponents, Arsenal and Chelsea. Going into the game United have 13 points, Chelsea 7, Arsenal 6 and Liverpool with four draws and no wins. Chelsea also enjoy a very good record over Manchester United in the Premiership and have taken more points off of them than any other side.
The defensive records of both teams this season have been outstanding (United 19 against and Chelsea 24 against) and when you add in the fact that the goals for either team have not been coming as freely in the last few weeks an avalanche of goals seems unlikely.
The Everton vs. Aston Villa match holds a lot of promise with Villa three points a flagging fifth place Everton. Only Manchester United have scored more goals in the Premiership this season than Villa (who would have picked that?) and they have recovered from a truly terrible march to score 15 goals in the last three matches – albeit against three of the cellar dwellers.
Birmingham were Villa’s victims last Sunday and find themselves in the last relegation spot. Birmingham desperately need at least a point this weekend against Liverpool and hope that Spurs do them a favour against Bolton and Reading come a cropper at Wigan. That would leave the Brummies ahead of the other two on goal difference and a run-in that has them face Fulham and Blackburn Rovers.
As chance would have it Birmingham are a bit of a bogey side for Liverpool with the Reds only winning twice in 9 Premiership games. A few years back a Championship Birmingham took Liverpool to penalty kicks before losing in the Carling Cup Final of 2001.
In Italy Fiorentina needs to see off sixth place Sampdoria to maintain at least a four point gap on fifth place Milan and to essentially kill off any reasonable hope that Samp might have of securing the fourth and final Champions League spot. Fiorentina have won their last six at home are playing a side that has a on the face of it a relatively poor away record this season. However, three of Sampdoria’s away wins have come in their last four games and only a surprising 1-0 loss against Reggina a couple of weeks ago brought a solid run to an end.
If Fiorentina can win this one then they will be very much in the driving seat with their remaining fixtures against Cagliari, Parma and Torino. On the other hand Sampdoria need the win to cut into Fiorentina’s lead but then have games against Roma, Palermo and Juventus in prospect.
Finally MLS has the first Los Angeles derby of the season and who is betting that this one will finish with eleven-a-side?
Craigy_f –1. Many see the CL in the last few years as a tale of PL dominance. It's hardly that in the UEFA Cup. How to you explain the difference in the two comps for PL teams (or other leagues) in the last three odd years. 2. Do you like the playoffs? 3. The last noise the Liverpool Supporters Who Want To Buy Liverpool made was about having the clout to actually have a dialogue with Hillette and Gicks. Apparently they wanted to talk ' intentions'. Will this happen? 4. Will Ince be given a bigger club or stick with much moved Wimbledon? 5. Tevez's stock must have gone up with that late goal at Blackburn?
6. Gimme your top five footballing flops this weekend, please. 7. What; off what goes on on the pitch; gets your goat when watching football. 8. Who will finish fifth? (In the PL, Serie A and La Liga) 9. Scottish Managers seem to do well darn sarf, why do you think that is?
Bobby –1. Many would seem to have a very poor grasp of what constitutes dominance. One win this decade hardly represents dominance.
2. Yes.
3. Until they have money in the bank they are trying to bluff their way in the door. There is a large chasm between fans expressing a willingness to put money up and actually writing the cheque. There again 100,000 of them could borrow the money from the bank which is no more ridiculous than what Hicks and Gillett pulled off.
(Couldn't resist the notion that the ESPN commentator missed a golden opportunity at the end of the game today when the cameras panned over to Hicks. The comments was something like "owner Tom Hicks must now take his Liverpool team to Stamford Bridge next week..." Should it not have been "owner Tom Hicks must now take his half of the Liverpool team to Stamford Bridge next week..."
4. There are always teams on the lookout for a savior so I cannot see Ince staying with MK Dons much longer. He could take a shorter route to the Championship I am sure.
5. Three late equalizers doesn’t hurt but I think that after what he showed for WHU late last season there are not too many people surprised.
6. You get 1 and 1 a – Clyde losing to Hamilton and Queen of the South beating Dundee.
7. What?
8. Villa, Milan, Racing Santander.
9. If I knew sarf meant then I might be able to answer.
Gorn – 1. Your opinion on whether Fake Ronaldo's PK technique is caution-worthy/unsporting? Seems to me that it's not much, if at all, different than if he just took a shorter run-up. Is there another line of thinking? 2. What sources do you use to do yer research (ie: top away goal scorer in BPL in 07-08, etc.)? Any links appreciated! 3. By how many goals will LFC beat Chelsea in both legs of the CL semi? 4. There appears to be a few quality strikers available this summer (Berbatov, Huntelaar, Villa, Henry, Crouch & hell even Ronaldinho). Do you think this will create a bit of a market correction in transfer prices? Or will this be the priciest market in years? I know you don't like to speculate on things like specific transfers, just wondering yer general feeling on what you anticipate happening, especially w/so many top teams rumoured to be changing managers.... 5. Do you think MLS needs a marquee team or 3 to stimulate rivalries/dynasties like the BPL has? Not advocating a class system exactly, but maybe more along the lines of brand development & recognition. Beckham helps, but if his team is pants, it doesn't help MLS. Further, MLS seems not yet able to simply throw $ at players to solve the problem like NASL did.
Maybe MLS would be served by having more than one team in a big city like NY to create a derby. Thoughts?
6. Dis/agree that there are at most 3 Canadian cities than can support an MLS team?
Bobby – 1. Nothing wrong with it whatsoever.
2. I hunt through stats sites. There is not one that has everything and in some cases the information doesn’t seem to exist. Most of the time it is a case of getting raw information and adding things up. I don’t think I use any sites that I or others haven’t referenced before; BBC, Fox, Telegraph, Soccerbot (probably my favourite), soccerbase.com, premiersoccerstats, RSSSF, channel 4 are the normal haunts. I also buy the European Book of Football each year which contains a statistical recap of every league in Europe plus international games.
3. Leading the witness – can’t have that. And do you now wish to rephrase the question after today?
4. Prices aren’t necessarily dependent on supply but are more influenced by money in the system. In the last few years that has been Premier League money and there is no indication that the money will dry up. I would also suggest that managers are not looking for strikers per se they are looking for specific types of strikers depending on their needs.
Berbatov is going to give you imagination, silky skills, and the ability to lead the line. Crouch is going to provide you with a lethal five yard pass back towards his own goal and ….come to think of it how many goals has your list of quality strikers actually scored this season?
Huntelaar 34 goals – we know from experience that goals in the Dutch league do not necessarily translate into goals in bigger leagues and he his coming up on 25 years old and nobody has made a real move for him yet. Wonder why? Berbatov 15 goals but also offers more. After that there have not been many goals from the others.
5. Use the words “brand development” and you are not off to a very good start. Rivalries do not come from plunking a team or two down in the same city. They come from years of games, incidents and shared history.
Rivalries cannot be manufactured and it is not just about location. After all if your theory was right we would be watching the Greater London League every week. One more thing – the NASL did not solve any problems by throwing money at them; they just caused more problems.
6. Vancouver I have no doubt. Montreal is a strange market and I don’t know enough about it. The others - not a hope of being considered let alone being given a chance. It is after all an US league.
Ursusarctos - "Should the Moscow [CL] final turn out to be an all-English affair this season, there will be plenty of talk about the Premier League being the best in the world. It isn't. Torres is right [that La Liga is tougher than the Premier League because matches are more competitive all the way down the league, and that English football is really all about the top four.]"
Yes. And it is too bad.
Do you agree with Wilson's (and Torres') analysis?
How would you rate Serie A? Does it resemble the PL, in terms of the quality being consistently concentrated among the top (6 or so?) teams, or is it more similar to Spain?
Leagues appear to tend to develop a quasi-permanent group of "haves", with the quality dropping off rapidly after-- Scotland's Old Firm and Portugal's Big Three are other examples.
Which major leagues would you consider to have the most turnover amongst the top group of teams, and the most competitive depth, over time (recent decades)-- and which the least? What factors might be responsible for differences between leagues?
Or does the competitive depth of leagues go in cycles, with England at the lower end of the scale and Spain at the higher at this point in time (and Scotland doing its own thing)?
If so, will increasing financial rewards, such as CL prize money, tend to fix "elite" teams in place, or are there contrary factors that might help to promote intra-league competitiveness?
Bobby – I don’t care one way or another. You may as well argue about the greatest ever heavyweight boxer. At the end of the day it is what excites and engages you – it has nothing to do with a subjective definition of best.
(I notice another MLS is BLEEP discussion has broken out. We have been around this one before but someone has yet to tell me what constitutes great football that they will watch and bad football that they won’t. Fans relate through building allegiances and they have no idea whether or not they will enjoy a game or will want to throw up when they pay their money or sit down in front of a TV. There is no such thing as all games in X league good; all games in Y league bad. When fans dismiss a league as being rubbish what they mean is they don’t relate to it. It has nothing to do with the standard of play even though they make it out to be.)
In terms of parity England use to be the exception in that there were a number of clubs that had a real chance of picking up silverware every season. The advent of the Premiership killed that extended era and the Premiership took on the same character as Europe’s other main leagues.
Take a look at the teams who have won leagues and cups in each country – it will closely follow the 80/20 rule. Eighty per cent of the silverware will have been won by 20% of the teams. The difference between success and failure long tern in soccer is the same as in business – the access to capital.
No guarantee of success but if you don’t have access to money through a large fan base (which normally means a team from a large city) you cannot compete in the long term. It works the same for leagues – that is why countries with large populations generally have better teams and more of them.
There are a couple of exceptions but they are exceptions, not the rule.
I haven’t done the research but my guess is that the French league has probably enjoyed the broadest range of winning sides until Lyon started their domination.
The Champions League is installing or in some cases ingraining what could become a perpetual cycle of relative success for a relatively small number of clubs. Win their league and make it to the CL group stage generates money that their domestic rivals do not have access to; spend the money to improve the squad and qualify for Europe again etc etc.
Rosenborg had it down to an art for over a decade. Platini’s initiative to extend places in the group stage to more countries is in theory good and noble but it may also lead to a greater distortion at the domestic level.
MasMaz - I assume that tonight you will give us your opinion about Rooney being given free reign to do whatever he wants. If not I'd like to hear it.
Bobby – I can’t say that I have noticed any difference in the way that Ferguson is playing Rooney. He has been granted a lot of freedom all season from what I can see.
However, if you are trying to make some ridiculous comparison with Mascherano’s sending off against United then you will have to make a better case. If you can show me an example of Rooney running 40 yards to get in the referee’s face when he has already been given a yellow card and had no involvement in the incident then you might have a case – oh and your teammate has just been carded for yapping at the referee. Otherwise you might want to wait until you have a more credible comparison.
Neophyte - Did you see the Toronto FC/ Real Salt Lake match? It looked like the match ended with only one minute of injury time instead of the three minutes posted by the 4th official. Home cooking or poor clock management and communication from the center to the 4th official?
Bobby – You hit a sore spot. I opted to watch the Blackburn game, tape TFC, go out for the first kick about of the new season and then come home and watch three MLS games. Tape malfunction on the TFC game so the only part I saw was when I switched over at half time in the Blackburn match. I did catch the other two MLS games though.
Maybe the 4th official did as good a job programming his board as I did programming my tape machine!
Aldoray - Football clubs have a Manager and Assistant Manager and coaches. What are the roles each of them play? Does the manager give the overall plan and then the assistant and the coaches carry it out or is the manager always hands on with the squad and everybody else is just peripheral. Or is it different for every club.
Bobby – Unfortunately the answer is the old standby – it depends. Some mangers are out there with the squad every day, some occasionally and others hardly at all. I remember reading a feature on Martin O’Neill during his Celtic days and his view was that a manager can maximize his impact if he limits his contact with the players.
His theory was that with a lot of daily contact the messages that the manager wants to communicate are blunted and the motivational effect is dampened. I can only assume he still feels the same way.
There is a certain irony because that is a view from many years ago. Prior to Busby, Shankly, Stein etc. popularizing the idea of the “Tracksuit Manager” the preparation was left to a coach (rarely coaches!) and the manager would come in on game days to give the team talk. Otherwise he dealt with other things during the week.
JayAlves - Arsenal fans can sleep easy knowing Usmanov /=/ Abramovich from a money standpoint.
Last time I checked Usmanov was worth 1/3 or 1/4 of Abramovich and considering how Arsenals profits are going might become an unrealistic team for him to buy assuming the board keep entering no sale agreements.
They floated this theory on WSD not long ago but they were off the mark on one point. They said maybe the board is being cheap on purpose to keep growing the club financially so they can’t be taken over. Thing is though the board on several occasions have dropped the huge money figures that Wenger has if he wants so you could hardly accuse them of being cheap.
Bobby – I don’t think that theory stands up. First off being debt free and enjoying the relative luxury of a fully paid for stadium did not save Manchester United from a highly leverage buy out from the Glazers. The same would hold true for an Arsenal club that is in a poorer position than United were because it still carries a huge stadium debt.
A case could be made that by improving the net financial position (not spending money) Arsenal are actually making the club a more desirable takeover target rather than turning the opportunists off. Companies that enjoy great balance sheets and hoard gobs of cash are often bigger and better targets for raiders than companies with huge debts.
Think about it from a lenders point of view and what would give you greater security – your money to pay off someone else’s debt or go towards buying cash generating assets with a pile of cash already sitting there?
The Swamp World Cup is being played in Scotland. With a bit of forward planning the old Baseball Ground in Derby could have been a permanent venue.
David Bond on the death - or is it just stunned - of the 39th game.
Slaven Bilic comments on the Taylor/Eduardo clash.
The Fink Tank says that the stats show that Liverpool areclosing the gap at the top.
With eleven games to go it is worth looking at the points totals that have taken the Premiership title and secured the fourth Champions League spot over the last number of seasons.
Currently Arsenal have sixty-four points and are in track for a 90 point season. Such a total would match their unbeaten season of 2004 but fall below what Chelsea bagged in both 2005 (95) and 2006 (91). Manchester United book-ends the five year spell with 89 points last season and 83 points in 2003.
It use to be pretty much accepted that a Championship winning team could afford to lose six games and still take the title. That theory was blown apart in 04 and 05 when Arsenal went unbeaten and Chelsea only lost once. Otherwise the other three seasons from 2003 to 2007 saw the Premiership winners each lose five games.
However, something did happen in terms of games lost last season that had never happened in a 38-game Premiership. It was the first time that the winners had not finished with the fewest losses.
Chelsea only lost three times but finished in second place to Manchester United who lost five games. Some might point to the fact that United won the league with games in hand but that is hardly unique in itself. So far Arsenal has one loss, second place United four while Chelsea and Liverpool have only tasted the bitter pill three times.
However, any interest Liverpool may have had in the title has largely evaporated on account of eleven draws from 26 matches. It’s even possible for Liverpool to finish out of the top four but finish the season with fewer losses than the eventual Champion.
Looking at the valuable fourth spot it seems that a points total of around seventy is going to be needed this season – it may even need more than the 71 points Newcastle finished with in 2002.
The lowest total for a fourth place team in a 38-team Premiership came in 2004 when Liverpool finished with sixty points and Gerard Houllier was sacked. The average over twelve seasons has been 66 points but with the present incumbents Everton sitting on 50 points with eleven games to play it is difficult to see how the average would be enough this season.
So it only seems right to focus some attention on Sunday’s game at Goodison between Everton and another side that has sights set on a top four finish Portsmouth. Even though both these sides have struck for seven in a game this season this one is all likelihood will be a tight hard fought give-no-quarter tussle.
One player who may prove pivotal is former Portsmouth striker Yakubu Aiyegbeni. Yakubu has hit double figures in scoring each of his five seasons in the Premiership with 16 in his first season followed by 12, 13, 12 and 10 already this campaign.
Based on goals for and against Everton enjoys a slight edge in both categories with four more goals scored and three less conceded this season. However, Portsmouth’s goals tend to arrive in bunches with twenty goals coming in five games while the other twenty-matches have generated only seventeen goals.
Everton are six points ahead and should the gap become nine with ten games to go it would be extremely difficult for Portsmouth to bounce back.
A draw however might be a good result given that their schedule down the straight idoes not look that difficult.
How important is the first goal in this game? Everton have only gained two points from a losing position this season – draws with Chelsea and Blackburn. Portsmouth have only lost two points from winning positions – the first game of the season against Derby County.
Craigy_f – 1. I can write off the Johnson goal as 'one of those things' Dunn not getting a second yellow rankles much more. Look forward to your opinion either in print or on the show tomorrow . 2. Premier League V Champions League - Is one harder than the other or are they two different beasts.
3.What brought a frown to your face and what brought a smile this weekend?
4. Are you a fan or an analyst first and foremost? And why?
5. The Fiorentina Milan game was pretty dire, what do you think accounted for this? The importance of the game (a real decider on 4th place). The closeness of the two teams in terms of skill etc...The two teams didn't actually play that well.
6. GIVE THEM HANDS! Two very similar situations and two vastly different results. Carragher gets the benefit of the doubt when his hands block a Murphy shot in the area – Styles waves play on. Zaccardo blocks the ball with his hand - Bergzoni immediately and calmly points to the spot. You can see why fans, managers and players get frustrated. The commentators always seem to talk about how you have no control over your arms in situations like these. Your take on this issue - which seems to have cropped up a fair bit recently - if you please.
7. And finally... Five footballing people agree to be interviewed by you - who would you pick?
Bobby – 1. Sorry to disappoint but the only piece of the Everton and Blackburn game that I saw that was controversial was Khizanishvili pole-axing John son in the penalty box. Didn’t see the offside decision although certainly sounds as if the officials made a mistake.
2. Pointless exercise – purely subjective.
3. The weather – Drogba’s goal against Guinea.
4. I don’t think you could do the analyst thing for any length of time without being a fan – it would drive you around the bend. However, I think it is even more important to be a student of the game if you are trying to analyze it.
5. It needed a goal early on and probably from Fiorentina. As it was I think both teams were well prepared and cancelled each other out. A massive disappointment.
6. I was always taught that if you “wave your arms around” (i.e. away from your body) when trying to make a block then there was a very good chance that you were going to get called for hand ball.
Claiming that players have no control of their arms is almost always rubbish. You may as well claim they have no control over their legs. I say almost always because in a situation when a player is falling after a challenge or has slipped then arm movement becomes instinctive.
I was surprised that Styles did not award a penalty against Carragher.
7. Luis Cesar Menotti, Jim McLean, Guy Roux, Alfredo di Stefano and (I don’t know of fits the definition) Hugh McIlvanney.
Gregz - Q1.What do you make of Abou Diaby? At times doesn't he seem too selfish & hence out of place for Arsenal's team play. Q2. Lionel Messi has become a bit predictable in his play. He most times dribbles too much instead of go for the quick pass or quick shot. What do you think?
Bobby –1. He is there primarily to give the team a bit more grit in midfield. I would not consider him a selfish player. When he dribbles there mostly seems to be a point to it rather than just holding on to the ball for the sake of it. He has a terrific shot and if needs to take a couple of players on to open up a shooting opportunity then it is probably a good decision.
2. If I was a defender facing Lionel Messi I would certainly want him to make the quick pass. That way I could escape with some self respect intact.
Players like Messi have been blessed with special skills and should be appreciated for what they have rather than trying to turn them into something they are not. I don’t want to tune in a year from now and find that Messi has been turned into a useful midfield player who just sits deep and hits nice passes.
Did you ever consider that someone might have said the same thing about Maradona? Instead of running through the England team in 1986 perhaps Maradona could have laid a nice first time ten yard pass back to Jose Luis Brown. Over twenty years on do you think we would be replaying that ten yard pass?
Ursusarctos –1. In Bill Edgar's latest quiz the answer to the question "Which two league clubs’ grounds in Britain are the closest together?" is Dundee and Dundee United. I've never been to Dundee, so I looked up a picture of the setting)- holy ....., they're just across the street from each other! Do you have any stories about what it is like for fans to be so close to the local rivals (and here I thought the width of Stanley Park was close proximity ...)? 2. I forgot to add that in the same quiz, Bill Edgar asks :"How many times has one club won the FA Cup and League Cup in the same season?" ...... and gives the answer "2. Arsenal in 1993, and Chelsea in 2007." Now, advancing middle age may be robbing me of essential cognitive functions (certainly yes, but beside the point ...!), but I would have added Liverpool in the year of the Cup Treble, 2001. Can you tell me what twist to the question I am missing? Or did Bill Edgar mess up? Thanks!
Bobby –1. With a helpful gust of wind you could probably punt the ball from Dens to Tannadice and there are a number of wayward strikers from both sides who have tried over the year. It may have again since I left but I can only remember game being played on the same day.
I had to do a little bit of checking back on this one but I am pretty confident that Dundee and Dundee United were both drawn at home in the Scottish Cup in 1968. This was a few seasons before the advent of Sunday football so they decided to have one game kick off earlier than the other – I can’t remember which was which.
I was at Dens to see Dundee draw with Rangers 1-1 while Dundee United lost to Hearts by the odd goal in 11 – yes they lost 6-5. Hearts went on to the final that season but lost 3-1 to Dunfermline. Dunfermline knocked out the European Champions Celtic in the first round by a score of 2-0 at Parkhead.
Rangers beat Dundee in a replay 4-1 in extra time and I think Jim Easton the Dundee centre half who later moved to Vancouver scored an own goal in one of the two games.
Nobody would even give a seconds thought to playing both games on the same day nowadays.
2. I think Mr. Edgar may have got that one wrong. It even happens to the best.
Yrusodull - Please, a clear headed, unbiased account of the Spurs - Manu match a White Hart Lane. I don't want to appear to whine (as the majority of gooners do, when things don't go their way!!), but I was sure there were 93:+ mins. on the clock before the corner was given. Is it my imagination, or do Spurs consistently get the short end from the officials?? Please give me your take!
Bobby – The board that goes up it supposed to show the minimum amount of time to be added so I would not hang my hat on that one. There were four substitutions (one was a double) as well as five yellow cards in the second half including one to Cerny for time wasting. So I don’t think the added tome was out of line. Bottom line is Spurs had chances to win the game and they defended the corner kick very poorly.
Shmish - With regards to the Kuper article, not being much of a soccer player myself I've never quite understood the concept of "old" for players. I always thought that soccer was a bit of an endurance sport, in which case men in their 30's should be very comfortable.
Okay, so here's two comparisons. First, professional road racing. Erik Zabel is still a force in cycling and he will be 38 years old this year. He is primarily a sprinter with explosive speed. Lance Armstrong, 37 this year, would probably still be the premier racer if he didn't retire.
His schtick is everything but sprinting (which he probably wouldn't be bad at either). Secondly there is ice hockey. It is not uncommon for top players to be in their mid thirties. Hockey is mix of speed and power, and physical durability.
So why would we expect a 37 year old to be over the hill in soccer? Don't be me wrong, I'm 37 and a bit out of shape so I can relate to the article and the joy of playing for the sake of playing. But I also know that even at 37, a person should be able to be as competitive as they want.
I know that Bobby has alluded to Drogba's age a few times. I don't want to misquote Bobby but my general impression is that he thinks Drogba's age will start to have a detrimental effect on his play. While I won't argue that perhaps Drogba is at his peak, I also don't see why he couldn't play at almost the same level for another 5 years. The "best" in other sports do.
Bobby – Endurance is only part of it. Without quickness of thought and foot as well as technical ability having endurance is only going to allow you to run around and be an irritant for ninety minutes.
I don’t think your comparison with cycling and hockey stands up. I cannot speak on cycling per se (even though the lack of physical contact likely precludes any valid comparison) but can on hockey.
Over the years I played with a number of team mates who were very good hockey players and in a couple of cases they played professionally. The conditioning for soccer and hockey is very different.
It shows in the way hockey games are scheduled – often back to back or three games in four or five nights. That is just impossible in terms of soccer.
It is not about wanting or not wanting to be competitive it is about having the physical capability to play at the highest level where a fraction of space given or taken or split second decision making often separates winning and losing.
Although the lifespan of a player tends to decrease as we move from front to back there are exceptions as there is to any rule. Strikers generally have the shortest lifespan given that to be successful they generally need the full package of technical ability, endurance, quickness and strength –Super Pippo the exception!!!
It is not a case that I think age will have a detrimental effect on Drogba’s play – it almost certainly will, it is nature taking its course.
Take a look at how George Weah’s production quickly waned at the end of his career. He didn’t stop scoring goals – he just stopped scoring as frequently and against good teams. If Drogba is still producing at the same rate and at the same level in five years he will be abnormal. More likely whoever he is playing for will not be a very good team.
CIAO - Do you know whether or not Nick Webster gets "the beers in..." before he writes his articles?
Bobby – You will have to ask Nick. From experience it is not a good idea. Something written after a few beers is not nearly as funny the next morning.
Apad03 -1. What do you think of the outcome of the upcoming US V MEX game will be?
2. The US has something of a streak going against Mexico lately and many people say that the US is getting in Mexico’s head. They (Mexico) seem to dominate the possession and outplay the US but fail to score and end up losing in the end. Mexico is trying out many players that have not been on the team for the previous losses to the US, could that affect the outcome?
3. I read a blog post by Chang over at ESPN and he was talking about what a great season Bradley is having over there in Holland. Have you seen him play and how would you rate his progress?
I think he has really developed a lot this past year. Really earned his spot on the USMNT and has become a better two way player. Gets behind the ball well but also is very good at starting counter attacks and showing up in the box at opportune times. Chang was also writing that he would probably move on in the summer to a much bigger club, have you heard anything about that?
Bobby –1. One of three possible outcomes I would say. In the end it is a friendly international and friendlies are there to help the coaches. The only results that count are the ones that lead to a trophy.
2. It is rarely about possession it is how effective you are when you have the ball. If Mexico wins then I’m sure someone will claim it is down to new players. If not another excuse will be trotted out – there is never a shortage of excuses for losing a game.
3. I saw Bradley at the under-20s and thought he played very well. I have not seen him since. There are stories out there about Bradley moving to a Premiership club but there is no indication that at the moment these rumours are anything more than a product of someone having to write a story and needing a tidy ending. If 1% of transfer stories ever come to pass then I would be surprised.
Henry14 - Q1 Do you think the Ivory Coast potentially or still have probably the best African squad ever? Q2 - Do you think rotation alone is the reason Liverpool are down in fifth or they just do not have Liverpool type players apart from the obvious 4 players? Q3 Who is the mvp in the premiership not necessarily from the top 3, but the most pivotal guy to a team? Q4 Can Fulham survive given that they are 3 points from safety?
Bobby –1. Nigeria in 1994 (World Cup) and 1996 (Olympics) was pretty good.
2. You are not allowed to mention the R-word it upsets L-fans. I noticed when the stock market slumped a couple of weeks that news commentators and economists were pointing out that that the R-word was being talked about. Personally I was a bit baffled as to how Rafa’s choices would impact the stock market but there you go.
3. How about Martin Laursen at Aston Villa?
4. There are 39 points still at stake and with a three point deficit I would have to say that yes Fulham can survive. Will they survive – I still don’t think so.
Mts2284- 1. I was wondering what your thoughts were on Mohamed Sissoko and Lassana Diarra. I know both struggled this season for first team action with Liverpool and Arsenal considering both team’s depth at midfield. Do you think Sissoko and Diarra will get more chances to play for Juventus and Portsmouth and become better and more seasoned players? I thought Diarra played rather well against Chelsea.
2. Also, who do you like in the FA Cup 5th Round match between Arsenal and Manchester United?
3. Who is your favorite for Champions League glory? And who do you like in the AC Milan Arsenal Group of 16?
Bobby –1. Sissoko started strongly but has not really delivered after that early surge. Ranieri may have had Sissoko at Valencia so he is likely going to play for a manager who has bought him with a specific purpose in mind. I think you will see both players get more playing time initially but as with any other player they will only consistently start over the long haul if they are delivering the right stuff.
2. I haven't really given up much thought so far.
3. I said at the beginning of the season I thought Inter Milan had a good shot. Oddly enough I could also see things lining up for Chelsea – maybe not to win it but maybe a spot in the final. Arsenal or Milan – I would give Milan the edge.
Redfan2000 - Questions and discussions abound on why Liverpool are underachieving or underperforming. As a qualified and well experienced ops manager I know well enough that the off field antics of Laurel and Hardy have destabilised the ship.
Such is the embarrassment in Hicks' camp that he has not been seen at Anfield since the Man Utd game I think. His only interview this year done with BBC or SKy but not with the club TV station and there have been no letters or articles to the club website, all to compound a communications disaster like none other in Premiership history.
Despite all the noise, which has become repetitive and boring, I was pondering a remark Bobby you made on Friday (I think) that many of the current squad are not of the calibre of a club of Liverpool's stature. Aside of the above mentioned mess and upsets, I have been wondering what else would take a team of CL winners and make it worse 3 years later?
Since the Champion's League win we have had a massive turnover in players. We have lost: Baros, Hammann, Traore, Smicer, Warnock, Henchoz, Cisse, Fowler, Dudek, Garcia, Biscan, Pongolle, Cheyrou, Le Tellec to name but a few.
In we have bought the likes of: Alonso, Nunez, Josemi, Pellegrino, Morientes, Sissoko, Mascherano, Lucas, Kuyt, Torres, Benayoun, Pennant, Crouch, Babel, Veronin, Arbeloa, Aurelio, Skrtel, Agger, Reina etc etc. Some of these have now gone too.
I am bound to say that a little spoken factor has to be change. So much has changed in the last 3 years including ownership, but especially player turnover as can be seen. The actual lists of players in and out is huge.
Such changes will take time to settle. Some players may never settle or adapt to the premiership, but molding so many new faces into a team is a long job as the likes of Shankly, Wenger and Ferguson have proved.
Not only are the changes so many and too many in so short a time, the players brought in, especially before Hicks and Gillett took over, were not necessarily much of an improvement and in several cases far worse. Losing Biscan and Henchoz for Pellegrino for example was not an improvement. Many bad buys among the few good ones. I wonder if Rafa needs a director of football?
There are clearly right now several Heinz 57 mutts standing in the greyhound derby and it shows. More spending is needed for wingers and defenders, or some of the reserves have to be given a shot. Either way the changes will take time to settle down and like Gwillem Bellague, I thing the Premiership is two seasons off yet and then only if the right pegs are found to fill vacant holes. Any further thoughts.
Plus - Gerrard is today named as captain of England to play Switzerland tomorrow. Another question for you to ponder regarding his position as skipper at Liverpool: Do you think he would be a better player at Liverpool (and maybe England too), if Carragher or another senior pro was skipper (of LFC)? I named Carragher because he is vice captain.
Bobby – I think that is a pretty good summation of the Liverpool situation. There are a couple of things I would add. There is no doubt in my mind that this Liverpool team is a better team than 2005 even though that side won the Champions League – that is not to say that it doesn’t come without glaring weaknesses.
The fight back from 3-0 was probably the greatest seen in the final of a major competition and I think because Liverpool won very little is said about how they came to be down 3-0 in the first place. Rafa put out the wrong players out playing in the wrong formation.
His half time substitutions only rectified his original mistake – not a bad gig if you can get it. Receiving credit for solving the problem you caused in the first place.
And that leads me to the second point. I just keep on getting the feeling that Benitez thinks that he has to get every team and every formation just right for every game. It leads to odd formations, players out of position and the team generally looking disjointed and confused.
I think he gives three-quarters of the Premiership far too much credit. If he has a more settled formation he could throw the team out most weeks and they would come back with three points.
It’s not to say that formations cannot change based on the level of the opposition – Benitez has shown a masterful hand at times in one off games – but every game?
Liverpool does need a couple of better fullbacks going forward. There are not many teams that are successful without solid attacking options at full back.
I don’t see Gerrard captaincy as being an issue.
OrangeSpur - I've enjoyed your opinions over the years and I'm curious on your take on Tottenham's current CB situation. Can Tottenham really afford to accommodate Ledley King with playing him in one out of every 3 games?
I've been after my glory-glory.net mates that Spurs need to move on a plan for life without King and should his health turn around then it is a bonus for us.
Secondly, what do you think about the thought that Berbatov is the new Zizou - well the closest thing we have to Zizou in today's game? Take care!
Bobby – A few months ago I took a look at Spurs point production with and without King. There is no doubt that Spurs are far more productive with King in the side. However, I am not sure I understand what you are getting at when you refer to a plan for life without King. What are you suggesting?
The thought that Berbatov is the new Zizou? Well, it is a unique thought given that they play(ed) in very different positions and not an idea that has ever crossed my mind. I thought the comment from last season that Berbatov was the new Alan Gilzean was closer to the mark.
Henry14 - What do you think of the statement that Walcott is more of an athlete learning to play football rather than a footballer who becomes a great athlete? What do you think of such an assessment?
Bobby – I would say that anyone that came up with that doesn’t know very much about what it takes to develop a professional soccer player. If you are not a great athlete to start with your chances of getting a look in are pretty slim. I can’t think of one player who was a great player who became a great athlete.
Gers4Lyfe – 1. Will Dundee make another run at Hamilton? 2. Do you think Celtic's additions will push them past Rangers in the second half? 3. How do you rate Hutton's debut performance for Spurs over the weekend? 4. Your views on the coaching staff for Scotland?
