A speech delivered by investigative journalist Andrew Jennings at an international conference in Iceland. Is there a day of reckoning in Sepp Blatter’s future and will it involve a court date?
Read this article from Simon Kuper and you will have to shower.
Flashman - A lot of Toronto FC fans, many still waiting to commit their first dollar, are hoping the club can attract big-name Canadian players and bring in quality opponents for international friendlies. But the club plan to play on plastic turf - they and FIFA claim it's very special stuff - but many reactions to that have been negative. I thought the Spartak-Inter CL game, played on this turf, was a very sterile affair. Paul Stalteri and Dwayne De Rosario have trashed it, as has Charmaine Hooper. Since we're still golfing in mid-November on pretty decent grass an hour north of Toronto, it makes the club's claim that grass won't work sound like the accountants are running Mo's show. This is a team that isn't likely to see a home playoff game for many years. And its playing style is likely to be more shillelagh than stiletto, so wouldn't grass suit the sort of game they'll need to play in the early going, attract quality clubs for friendlies, and keep fans interested? Also, the playing surface is not likely to see, in the short term, heavy multi-purpose usage, such as the CFL, though rugby would be a nice event to add. This seems like a penny-wise, pound-foolish approach in their early going. A warming climate is hardly hurting the southern Ontario sod industry. What's your take on it?
Bobby – Up to now MLSE have shown that they are good business people but they are not in the trophy winning business – the Maple Leafs a prime example. However, I would not be blaming MLSE for choosing the artificial surface – that was a CSA decision that was made from the outset. The CSA has been a proponent – despite players’ objections – for a long time now. Over eight years ago a member of the Canadian Soccer Association told me that FIFA would approve artificial surfaces within a month and that Winnipeg should spend over a million dollars installing the to-be-approved artificial surface in Winnipeg Stadium for the Pan American Games soccer tournament. The same person also told me that the Pan Am soccer tournament would attract crowds of 40,000. The approval did not come until many years later, the surface wasn’t installed and the average crowd for the soccer tournament was 2,500. I mention it as an illustration that major assumptions –international friendlies is a good one – sometimes are flawed and just don’t pan out.
Henry 14 - Bobby what do you make of Pompey and lastly how do you rate Hleb amongst Wenger's best midfielders at Arsenal?
What do you make of Spurs striking combinations, Martin Jol just spend $20m on a 20 goal a season striker, he has Keane who averages 16 goals a season and l do not see why he does not make them his first choice pairing, what do you make of the basic Martin Jol team selection?
Bobby – I think Portsmouth will settle into an upper mid table position with a reasonably good chance of grabbing a UEFA Cup spot. But I think a Champions League spot might be beyond their reach. Hleb is improving every game and based on what I saw while he was at Stuttgart we have still not seen the best of him.
Obviously Jol believes that rotation is the best policy and I think it is too early to say that he is wrong. He has to keep all four happy at some level because he will need all four during the rest of the season. Spurs are facing a much heavier load than last season – only 40 games – with an extended and deep UEFA Cup run a strong possibility plus the FA Cup starting in January. Managers need to look at the larger picture and cannot just pick the best team for every game. Whether Jol is right or wrong will be judged at seasons end rather that after a 1-1 draw with Blackburn.
Neophyte - Pressley is getting such a raw deal. Watching the happenings at Hearts is the equivalent of a manly soap opera. Where do you see him going? What did you think of Giggs' service into the box? He looked rushed and completely off target---to much confidence? Poor form? Lack of patience? What do you think?
Bobby – There has been talk of Pressley going back to Dundee United where he spent some time after moving back to Scotland from Coventry. With Craig Levein now in charge at Tannadice it is a move that makes some sense given that Pressley is now 33 and apparently interested in a coaching career. However, what might be a good move for Pressley and Dundee United might not be a good move for Hearts and the supporters. As for Giggs, I didn’t think he had a particularly poor game against Sheffield United.
Bmax14 - I had a question and comment on the article from Marcotti on formation of new leagues. I know his article is not about any "super league" but over the years I've heard speculation on the "Super league" and Uefa's ongoing fight against such a proposal. Do you think something of this nature (Euro league with 20 biggest clubs) will ever come to fruition and if so, do you think it's good or bad for the game? From a fans perspective, it seems the most anticipated games of the year are the occasional great matches in the Champions league so I would expect a weekly slate of games between the likes of Man U v. Barca or Chelsea v. AC Milan would be great. All of the top leagues are dominated by 2-3 teams anyways so I see this Euro league as natural progression of the game. Ideally, I'd like to see the domestic leagues more competitive but under the current system I don't see this happening. I also don't mind Marcotti's proposal to try and get the smaller leagues up to par with the Big 5. It is a bit ironic though that as Europe becomes more integrated politically and economically that Uefa seems to want to stick with the domestic approach.
Bobby – A full European league will come – but it will not be anytime soon as long as things stay pretty much the same. UEFA has acted very astutely in how they have managed the G14 and the money on offer from the Champions League. As it is the G 14t eams in the big 5 leagues have the best of both worlds with big domestic TV deals (Bundesliga might be considered an exception to that) and a very good prospect of big Champions League pay days each season. The one thing that is on the horizon that might set off a rebellion and that is if Platini wins the UEFA Presidential race and cuts representation for the top three countries from four to three teams.
I came around to seeing the Atlantic League proposal as a positive one when it was suggested a few years ago and I think the idea of a series of super leagues is even better. As it is England, Italy, France, Spain and Germany have big enough domestic markets to generate significant television and ancillary revenue so these leagues can take care of themselves. It is the “big” teams in the small markets that need to be taken care of and it would seem to me that if larger league markets can be created then there is a better chance that the “second-tier” teams can compete on a more equal basis in the Champions League and that would make it an even better competition. The Champions League needs to remain as the “cherry-on-top” and not become a replacement for regional or national leagues.
Davard - With the talk of super leagues and the EU and political integration, why not a Great Britain Premier League?
I was thinking about this the other day, considering a baseball team like the Seattle Mariners traveling 3,000 miles to play The Tampa Bay Devil Rays, for example. Celtic traveling to London is about 1/10th that. (give or take, for all you exacting readers)
Keep the cups in place (FA, Scottish, Irish [if there is one, I am ignorant of Irish football]) but unite the leagues into one super British Isles league! You can even keep the individual continental leagues for those who do not qualify. I'm sure there's been talk of this in the past - More Champions league places for the one league, less boring fixtures, No more Watford, Sheffield United, etc, unless they are truly a great team. AND it makes domestic football (for GB) even stronger, and more unified. I'm all about the political unity, we're all brothers on this planet - let's let football lead the way!
I want to know where you stand on an idea like this and why it would or would not work.
Bobby – Davard you are making some large assumptions here. More Champions League places? – do you really think that the rest of Europe would sit back and allow a GB league to just add the existing SPL and Premiership CL places together? Do you think the likes of Watford and Sheffield United are going to vote themselves into the Championship? How many turkeys think Christmas is a great idea?
USAenglandfan – I was speaking with a family friend and former editor-in-chief of a kid’s soccer magazine here in the US, and he had an interesting take on the potential for success here and in other parts of the world. A lot of what he said had to do with economics. He said that in many cases the more wealthy your country is, the harder it is going to be to compete in the world's sport. The discussion was much more detailed, but this was the general idea. There are obvious exceptions (Pirlo, who was raised upper class, comes to mind), but I think it makes sense. You have your Brazils of the world where kids cope with the harsh reality of the favelas and soccer is not only woven into the culture, but is also seen as a 'way out'. I'm sure some of you have heard/thought about this, but I'd like to know what you all think.
And finally, cast your votes: Rooney with beard or without beard? I vote 'with'
Bobby – I’m not sure that I would agree with entire notion that wealthy countries have a harder time competing in the world’s sport – I assume you are limiting this to soccer rather than world sport. Certainly the wealthier the economy then the more choices that kids are likely to have within a broader range of sports and that means – I would think – that more kids would be lost to other sports. However, if you flip the notion – poorer nations find it easier to compete in the world’s sport – few would agree.
As for Rooney - it is one thing to lick up to the owner, it is another thing to try and look like him.
Blueblades - Do you think Everton has any chance of finishing in the top four this season? It seems to me that the fourth spot is up for grabs especially with Liverpool be so inconsistent.
Bobby – A number of teams – Everton included – have a shot at fourth place. Despite their inconsistency I think Arsenal will slot in at number 3. Andy Johnson needs to get going again though – I think this is his driest spell in the Premiership. Cahill will be a big loss and if Arteta was to go down then all bets would be off.
Henry 14 - Did you see the Arsenal Champions League game, l have to say Hleb is a genius, a highly creative player. You were laughing at Gallas the other night l hope you would laugh at the Hamburg defense, because the guy went on a one man dribbling expedition that if he had score surely it would have been goal of the year for the last 3 years+
Bobby – I didn’t see the Arsenal game. I was laughing at Gallas – why would I be laughing at Gallas?
Hawkman14 - Do you see any current EPL players as top-flight future managers? If so, who?
Bobby – I did an article last season and suggested that Gary Neville and Jamie Carragher might be prime managerial candidates. Given the number of managers who have at one time or another come under the influence of SAF then existing United players would seem to be a potential pool of future recruits. Carragher is supposed to be a real student of the game and given the position that he plays it makes him another player who may choose the dug out after his playing days are over. Look for defenders and hard working midfield players to make the move.
Venti_vidi_vici asks about the foul on John Terry versus Blackburn that led to a penalty kick.
Bobby – I did not see the penalty as a dive at all. If Ooijer is going to wrap his arms around Terry then the only way Terry is going to remain on his feet is if he stands still. As soon as he moves, he is bound to fall, which he did. For anyone to claim that it was not a penalty then they will have to explain how wrapping arms around someone is not a foul.
Eponymous - Any chance you can make any extended comments on the Tottenham-Everton match and whether it bodes well for Everton (and/or ill for Tottenham) for the rest of the season?
Bobby – I thought that after Kilbane went off Everton were terrific. Howard had very little to do until Everton tired in the last 10 minutes or so. The central defensive pairing looked very good and quick and the full backs hardly put a foot wrong. Carsley was immense in front of the back four and Arteta and Osman dictated the game for large periods of time. Tottenham just could not handle the pace and mobility of Johnson (his goal was as good as any I have seen this season so far) and he looked as if he was enjoying himself. As for Spurs – they need Ledley King back sooner rather than later and in midfield, they need to sort out who the playmaker is. No one seemed to want to take that responsibility. It looks as if Spurs are adding to their squad before the transfer window. Mido signed on Tuesday and there are reports that Chimbonda will arrive from Wigan and Steed Malbranque from Fulham. Wayne Routledge is supposed to moving on to Fulham while Lee Young-pyo will join Roma. And Eponymous we expect nothing less than a detailed account of your first Merseyside derby on September 9.
Hoodedclaw – Please see below my recent email to FIFA regarding the Oscar nominees that have found their way into the beautiful game. I was going to wait until the middle of the season to see if there has been any improvement in the officiating, but after the weekend’s ludicrous penalty decisions at Charlton and the sending off of Kevin Kilbane, as a result of the quite spectacular theatrics of Young-Pyo Lee, I feel it worth mentioning now. I am also happy to report that Chelsea’s Drogba had a perfect opportunity to hit the dirt on Sunday, but the ‘new’ Drogba decided on this occasion to persevere and score a gem o####oal. I am a Chelsea fan (since 1966) and have been recently embarrassed by his (Drogba) and Robbens antics. Hopefully together we can put enough pressure on FIFA to do something about this? Dear Sir/Madam I have no doubt that you have received many emails on this subject, some perhaps offering a solution. Here is mine. I understand that most games now have a TV monitor, which is or can be watched by the 4th Official. Your reluctance to use this facility for instant replays is, I believe, based on the fact that these replays will slow the game down. I disagree with this. In the time, it would take for the 4th Official to replay the contended incident, even in slow motion, more often than not, the players will still be arguing with the Referee! In any situation, whether it is a penalty, foul, violent conduct or even players vying for an Oscar, the incident can be viewed and a decision made and transmitted to the referee.
Bobby – But isn’t this predicated on the belief that a replay will make it clear what the right decision should be? The problem is that a video replay usually only goes to support the viewer / fans original opinion so you will be no further forward. I watched the Everton – Tottenham game and did not see any theatrics from Lee nor have I seen anything to indicate that the referee felt he made a wrong decision. So are you saying that if there had been a video replay capability and the referee had still sent Kilbane off that you would have accepted it - not because you thought it was right but because a video replay was used?
Laguna22 - Bobby, when a player goes down and writhes on the floor in agony, only to go off and return again next whistle, the game is brought into disrepute. Why can't FIFA institute a "minimum out" period -- if you are in such agony that you must leave the pitch for the magic spray from the physio, you cannot return to the pitch for three minutes minimum? This would put the diver's club at almost a hockey-esque power play disadvantage; obviously if the player was legitimately hurt, his substitute could come on immediately.
Bobby – You view seems to be based on the premise that anyone who goes down in agony and recovers within a short period of time (say a minute for arguments sake) is a diver. I do not agree with that. Anyone who has had a set of studs rip across almost bare bone or has been on the receiving end of knees cracking together in a tackle knows that the pain is intense for a short time and then disappears very quickly. From what I have seen in the Premiership so far, the directive to the players that referees are responsible for stopping the game and not the players, has worked very well. Under your proposal, a player could get his teeth knocked out but he if the trainer was called on then he would be required to stay off for three minutes – that hardly seems fair.
GeorgeWeah - I'm having a hard time finding the US national team. Are you guys stashing them up in the hinterlands of Canada? Seriously, the absolute drop in news that has taken place re: US squad is frustrating. I understand they won't be playing anytime soon but it would be nice to know what is going on with the coaching search and the timetable. Then again, that would mean we need someone in the media to step up and ask that question. Couple questions: not going to ask you who the US Federation should hire, rather, I want to ask you what kind of coach (and style) they should be looking at? Also, is there a player or 2 players that you think deserves a look for a call-up that got overlooked by Bruce Arena (not someone like Twellman, rather, more under the radar). Thanks a lot, Bobby!
Bobby – Jamie Trecker is working a story so keep checking his blog for an update before the end of the week. Players will come and go as part of the natural cycle but I do not think Arena made a mistake in his choice of players to take to Germany.
djnima - Do you believe that Hargreaves is worth all of this fuss from SAF? Where would he fit in the midfield? With Carrick and Scholes? Surely all 3 cannot be on the field at the same time. Thoughts? Also, where do you think Tevez is going? It doesn't sound like he's going to Man U which will probably mean he's going to Chelsea and being loaned out. Thoughts?
Bobby – Hargreaves is not worth the money that is being suggested in the media. Anything over $10M and someone would be overpaying in my opinion. However, I do not think you can question it on the basis that United already Scoles and Carrick particularly given that they are quite different players. Scoles plays much further forward and although Carrick plays deep, he is very much a playmaker while Hargreaves is a defensive midfield player with very little attacking flair. As for Tevez – I really do not know but I doubt Chelsea.
Los Angeles Chelsea Fan - Bobby thanks for continuing with this. I'm going to re-ask a question I asked last week since it seems to be getting coverage in the media. If Chelsea's "Wingless Wonders" (as even Chelsea's own website is now referring to themselves), bought a wide right sided player this week who might that be? Bobby or anyone have an idea? Thanks FYI. This morning Boularouz admitted on TV that it's 4 years since he played at right back and it was not in the same attacking mould as Wayne Bridge.
Bobby – Mauro Camoranesi. I do not think anyone who saw Boularouz at the WC would be surprised that he is not an attacking full back – with the ball anyway.
The Gaffer - Bobby, the question I have for you is whether you would ever be interested in becoming a full-time football analyst. Bobby – I think it would be difficult to make a decent living as a full time soccer analyst in North America no matter how much the game is growing. At the moment, I probably have the best of both worlds. I operate my own business – I work with organizations that are hosting major sporting events – and that provides me with flexibility in terms of watching games and keeping up to date. When I travel on business, I can generally make it midweek so not to miss the FSWR.
Reggae Boy 23 - What on earth was up with Arsenal this weekend? I know it's early in the season and I'm not about to panic yet BUT watching that game was like a slow and painful torture. I mean seriously is there some law that you can't take a shot unless you're standing directly in front of and empty net? Believe me I love to watch the beautiful one touch, give and go, crisp passing football and short of Barcelona and an in form Real Madrid no club team on earth plays a more beautiful brand of football than Arsenal, BUT there comes a time when you have to take a crack Right?! Personally I blame Henry. As the captain of such a young squad, I feel that he needed to set the tempo for the game and although he found himself in space on a number of occasions and timed his runs well. His demeanor around the penalty area was very laxed and uninspiring. His touch let him down on a number of occasions and he generally seemed to lack that sharpness we've grown accustomed too. All in all, though our general play throughout the game was positive and we were extremely unlucky not to score, denied by the post twice and a few brilliant saves by the keeper, but there was a serious lack of composure in front of goal and a certain lack of toughness in the midfield I feel. And finally your thoughts on Justin Hoyte (*SIGH*). I really don't even want to get into what I thought of his performance (there may be children reading this) but let’s just say not his best performance (possibly the understatement of the millennium). Defensively I think we'll need a bit more strengthening up to compete with the better squads, but for the most part I thought they were ok except for the aforementioned player who's name I shall not speaketh again Let me know what you think.
Bobby – It went beyond Henry – there were a number of guilty parties who either passed the ball off to someone in a poorer position or took too long to get the shot away. I did not think Justin Hoyte’s performance was dreadful by any means. When you create a dozen or more chances and do not score, I do not think the left back is the logical player to criticize. He is still a young player and I think it is premature to write him off.
Coreydan - Didn't get to see the FSW Report last night; how do you rate Zambrotta's debut with Barcelona?
Bobby – Sorry I cannot help you as I did not see the game.
Redfan4ever - Bobby, last week's speaker's corner you were calling Crouchy a dud and then he up and scored again this weekend! Any further observations? Also, Dirk Kuyt started and his first 40 minutes were fiery. Rafael Bentitez has real striker options for the first time in 3 years. Do you see this change likely to improve Liverpool's fortunes? What price Portsmouth's chance of European footy next year?
Bobby – Ah yes. I think I have to put my hand up and admit that describing Crouch as a dud was overkill. However, using Crouch’s scoring statistics for England is a perfect example of how statistics can lie. My contention is that he is a role player and nothing more. His height obviously bothers defenders but I don’t think he is particularly good in the air. He scores a goal about every four Premiership games and last season he only completed 7 out of the 32 Premiership games he played in. Even though it was only 40 minutes, Kuyt looked to be a much better long-term option. I suspect that Liverpool fans will quickly take to Kuyt at Crouch’s expense if he can maintain his debut performance. As for Portsmouth and European football – I would still consider that a very long shot.
Kopper - In today's Guardian Kevin McCarra makes the argument the small nations such as Andorra and San Marino devalue international soccer. It is suggested later in the article that there should be a qualifying round similar to the champions’ league to remove some of the weaker nations. What is your opinion of this? It could certainly go some way to relieving fixture congestion.
Bobby – Kevin McCarra makes some very good points in the article. There are also some good comments from readers. In terms of fixture congestion caused by padding the groups with “smaller” countries, the simple solution is to move to a qualifying system in which only the winner goes through. I believe Africa and UEFA are of similar size and African World Cup qualifying is reserved for the winner only. On average, it would make a massive difference in the number of games that would be needed in order to qualify from UEFA. However, that radical a solution is unlikely. I can see were McCarra’s idea could actually add something to the competition given that the smaller countries would have something to strive for – even if it was only the right to be mauled in World Cup qualifying proper.
Henry 14 - Bobby l wanted to know what you feel about the Senna issue that Man Utd will sign players who are English alone due to sponsors because l have to say it makes little sense to me as they have made a bid for Trezeguet who is a French man, he wanted Vieira .l feel he was put off by the age factor and that he was not willing to risk a big fee for someone who needed to adjust to the Prem and in Owen and Vieira he would had gambled with higher fees because they understand the Premiership .what do you think about this?
Bobby – Well you have me on that one because it is certainly news to me that United has an English only policy. It probably comes a bit of a surprise to the legion of non-English players that United currently have on their books as well. As an aside, my understanding was Senna’s fee was not big. As for Owen, United were never serious bidders and Vieira was more speculation than any real interest.
2. Liverpool - will push Chelsea hard but ultimately they will come up just short.
3. Manchester United – in the past those who written-off SAF have had to eat crow, but……
4. Arsenal – they will be great to watch again but a legitimate title challenge will have to wait.
5. Everton – Simple stuff. Johnson + Beattie = more goals. The Toffees move up the Premiership.
6. West Ham – A side that showed last season that it has a great upside.
7. Aston Villa – The O’Neill factor.
8. Tottenham – Will they continue to build on last season’s progress or take a step back? The latter for me.
9. Bolton – More liable to slip back than to move forward.
10. Newcastle – Criticism of the Newcastle defense last season is not supported by the statistics. But where will the goals come from?
11. Blackburn – Europe plus loss of Bellamy and Rovers’ league position will slip.
12. Middlesbrough – Many expect Boro to struggle in the bottom four or five. They will have their problems early on but will settle into a mid-table position.
Let's take a look at the statistics before we look in detail at the last five teams in this seasons upcoming Premiership. The chances are that at least two of the three promoted teams and the pair that finished just above relegation will be dropping down to the Championship come next May. In the last 13 seasons, at least two teams from that combination have been relegated, and in all 26 teams out of the 40 that have been demoted have come from the aforementioned grouping.
To narrow it down even more the chances of all three promoted clubs surviving is not good. Only the graduating class of 2000/01 (Blackburn, Bolton and Fulham) has managed to survive intact. Conversely only once have all three promoted teams immediately dropped back down – that was in 1997/98 with Barnsley, Bolton, and Crystal Palace.
History shows that come May 2007 the most likely relegation permutation will be one from Aston Villa or Portsmouth; one from Reading, Sheffield United or Watford; and one other side that finished between 11th and 15th last season. That has been the combination 6 out of 13 seasons.
Based of past performances of teams promoted by way of the play-offs Watford has the most to fear. Only 5 teams out of 13 have survived their first season in the Premiership after winning the play-offs. However, Reading should also be concerned because the record of the lower division winners is not that much better – 6 times out of 13, the champion has become a chump within 12 months. The best survival rate is by the previous year’s runner up – only 4 times out of 12 (one year the runner up did not receive automatic promotion) has relegation followed. A good omen for Sheffield United.
Last season Aston Villa slumped to 42 points their worst ever Premiership points total although they did finish 8 points ahead of the last relegated team. (In 1994/95 they finished with four more points although four more games were played that year and Villa only finished the year three points ahead of Crystal Palace who were relegated.) David O’Leary left by “mutual agreement” during the summer to finally end what was an inevitable parting of the ways.
The appointment of Martin O’Neill has set off a state of euphoria amongst the Villa faithful. However, until the ownership situation is sorted out and money is available to strengthen the squad any improvement will be limited. O’Neill has never job-hopped and with five years each at Wycombe, Leicester and Celtic the Villa fans will settle for steady improvement over a quick fix option.
Portsmouth is a side that has already sorted out it’s ownership over the summer but even with Harry Rednapp back as manager it looks to be another tough grind ahead for Pompey. The revolving managerial door has seen players arrive and leave by the dozen over the last twenty-four months. Ten players have left during the summer while Glen Johnson on loan from Chelsea and David Thompson signed as a free agent has arrived. Rednapp is sure to make more signings in the next ten days.
One of the most questions is “who can do a Wigan or West Ham this season?” It might be Reading. In Steve Coppell Reading has experience of managing in the Premiership (albeit with relegated Crystal Palace), a hard working squad and a management team that is unwilling to throw money around. The Reading investments (Sam Sodie and Seol Ki Hyeon) have so far been limited although a centre back continues to be a priority. However, it might be Reading’s ability to score goals that sees them survive in the Premiership.
Controversy and Neil Warnock go together like a rash and …poison ivy. If Warnock goes more than five games without hitting the headlines it will be a major shock. On the transfer front, the major acquisition has been defender Claude Davis from Preston although he is likely to miss the first part of the season through injury. Other arrivals include Mikele Leigertwood (Crystal Palace), Li Tie (from Everton) and David Sommeil (Manchester City).
Without any doubt, Watford was the surprise package of last season in the Championship. Tipped as relegation fodder the Hornets stunned the pundits and gained promotion after comfortably beating Crystal Palace and Leeds United in the play-offs. Manager Adrian Boothroyd was very much the flavour of the month come the end of last season but it will be interesting to see how long that lasts as Watford bring their “direct approach” to the Premiership.
Over the weekend, Danny Shittu opted for a shot at the premiership with Watford in preference to joining West Brom. Boothroyd has also added experience in the form of Damien Francis (Wigan) and Chris Powell (Charlton).
This week we look at the clubs that finished six through ten in last season's Premiership.It is understandable that fans of Blackburn, Newcastle, Bolton, West Ham and Wigan are looking to improve on last season’s showing. However, history shows that it is more difficult to consolidate the improvement than it was to leap up the table in the first place.
Let us go back three seasons to the final league table of 2003/04. Aston Villa, Charlton, Bolton, Fulham, and Birmingham City filled positions six through ten respectively. The best performance over the last three seasons has been by Bolton. They have managed to finish in the top ten in the two seasons since; the worst is by Birmingham City – they are now in the Championship. Of the others, Villa slipped to 10th the next season and then 16th last season.Charlton, 11th and then 13th and Fulham 13th followed by a late rally last season that took them to 12th.
If we look at the 2004/05 league table, only Tottenham Hotspur (9th) improved their position the following year (5th). The others – Bolton, Middlesbrough, Manchester City, and Aston Villa – all garnered less points and dropped in the standings.
In fact over a four year spell finishing in the top ten has shown to be down right dangerous to a teams Premiership health. Consider this; Ipswich 00/01 (5th) - 01/02 (relegated), Leeds 01/02 (5th) – 03/04 (relegated), West Ham 01/02 (7th) – 02/03 (relegated), Southampton 02/03 (8th) - 04/05 (relegated), Birmingham City 03/04 (10th) – 05/06 (relegated).
So for Blackburn, Newcastle, Bolton, West Ham and Wigan will be it be up or will it be down this season?
Blackburn has brought in Jason Roberts from Wigan while Craig Bellamy – a big loss – and Paul Dickov have both departed. Mark Hughes is reported to be interested in signing Mr. Loyalty aka Nicolas Anelka while acquiring Francis Jeffers would seem to be an inexpensive gamble, albeit one that it unlikely to succeed.
Glenn Roeder faces the start of the season without his two main strikers from last season and a replacement for either, yet to be secured. With Michael Owen’s injury showing complications, his time on the treatment table may extend into 2007. Shola Ameobi is the only specialist striker available at the moment and although he can mature into a 12 to 15 Premiership goal scorer he cannot be expected to carry the full load.
The addition of Damien Duff should prove to be a great investment and he adds strength to a midfield that could be one of the best in the Premiership. Defensively Newcastle showed a massive improvement in cutting the goals against from 57 down to 42 and Shay Given was a big part of the reason. If the defensive can tighten up a little more and with a midfield that can score goals, Newcastle fans might just find that a few goals may generate many points. After all the speculation at the end of last season it looks like Sam Allardyce will still the man in charge at the Reebok come the Premiership kick off. Bolton has seen eight players leave already – seven if you exclude the strange case of Didi Hamann. Arrivals Abdoulaye Meite and Idan Tal are far from household names but big Sam has shown in the past a good eye for talent so we should not be surprised if they fit in smoothly. Further signings are promised and with the transfer window open until the end of August that gives Allardyce opportunity to shop around.
It was a great return to the big time for West Ham fans. A solid finish in the league and a trip to the FA Cup Final was more than almost everyone expected. Alan Pardew has already spent some money and is adamant that the likes of Dean Ashton will not be leaving Upton Park.
Paul Jewell is another manager who has given been given a freer role with the club’s chequebook this summer. Five players have arrived while eight have left. The loss of Jimmy Bullard will probably hurt the most along with the departure of Jason Roberts who improved as last season progressed. Other solid veteran players to leave such as Damien Francis, Alan Mahon, Stéphane Henchoz, David Thompson, and Matt Jackson might leave the depth of the squad paper-thin.
While Emile Heskey and Fitz Hall for a combined fee of around $14M raised a few eyebrows, Denny Landzaat from AZ Alkmaar might an inspired signing. Andy Webster may also be on his way from Hearts of the SPL.
This one has started very brightly - almost has a Premiership feel to it. It sounds as if there is a great atmosphere in the stadium.
I've avoided picking on the ESPN announcers but I can't let this one go - "Alex on the ball for Japan, certainly looks Brazilian." Maybe the name might have provided a clue that the Japanese player isn't born and bred.
Fifteen minutes gone and the game is still going from end-to-end. Viduka and Emerton are playing with fire in their bellies - Boro and Blackburn fans must be rubbing their eyes.
Australia need to get Bresciano and Kewell the ball.
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites.
Thank you to all who take time to visit this blog and especially to those of you who post your comments and thoughts.
PS - If you have questions please post them on the regular Monday blog. I am unable to answer e mails posted to the inbox on this site.
And one more thing. If you have questions or complaints or compliments about programming please contact Fox Soccer Channel or Fox Sports World Canada directly. I have no control over what the stations televise.
