It must be difficult to convince supporters of the three Premiership teams located in the north-east of England that it is the season of good cheer. As it currently stands Newcastle, Middlesbrough and Sunderland have played six games over the holiday period and have the sum total of one point to show for it. Even then it required a late equalizer from Mark Viduka to earn the single point against foot-of-the-table Derby County.
A stirring performance against Arsenal in the first week of December seemed to have set Newcastle on the right path as they followed the draw up with wins against Birmingham and Fulham. But the scrambled draw with Derby and an anemic loss to Wigan had Sam Allardyce publically questioning his players.
Full points from these very-winnable four games would have earned Newcastle more breathing space and moved them into a top eight position. As it is, they sit just below mid-table with 26 points with the definite possibility that come the beginning of March that they will not have too many more.
Starting on Saturday with a trip to Stamford Bridge Newcastle will play eight Premiership games with six of them against top half opposition (Manchester City h, Manchester United h and a, Arsenal a, Aston Villa a), and the other two against Bolton and Middlesbrough at St. James’ Park. There is also a tricky FA Cup third round match in two weeks time away to Stoke City who are currently in the top four of the Championship.
With the team again taking two steps forward and three back Allardyce’s position is again the subject of speculation. You get the feeling that if Big Sam is going to survive then Newcastle has to pull off some big results and pick up a few points over the next two months. But there again if you are going to be labeled unpredictable then there has to be good times as well as bad – will this weekend be one of the good times?
Only two weeks after losing their unbeaten home record to Manchester United, Liverpool faces the other Manchester side this Sunday. City’s form over the first eight home games this season was nothing short of spectacular with eight wins, thirteen goals scored and only three conceded. The streak extended to nine with a win over Bolton although it took three second half goals to overturn a 2-1 half time lead for Bolton.
Three days later Spurs came to City of Manchester Stadium and pulled off a 2-0 Carling Cup win while playing for almost an hour with ten-men and Blackburn became the first team to leave with a point in the Premiership when they drew on Thursday.
All the signs seem to be pointing to City’s home streak running short on steam. Liverpool needs to keep winning in order to maintain their title aspirations while if City are to remain in the six more home points are crucial. All things point to a cracking good game.
Everton and Arsenal is another good game in prospect. Out of the top four clubs Arsenal drew the toughest holiday schedule. So far the Gunners have mimicked results from last season with a win over Tottenham and a draw at Portsmouth.
They will be hoping that results against Everton (Saturday) and West Ham (Tuesday) are not replicated as they lost both games last season by the same score - 1-0. Goodison has not being a profitable venue for Arsenal with Everton winning three and drawing one of their last five meetings.
No doubt the Everton coaching staff will have taken notice of Portsmouth’s display on Wednesday in holding Arsenal off the score sheet for the first time this season in the Premiership.
The centre-back partnership of Campbell and Distan were outstanding and the Portsmouth midfield gave Arsenal very little time and space to operate. Everton seem to have similar types of players and with Yakubu and Cahill carrying a scoring threat it could be another tough ninety minutes for Arsenal.
Quick free kicks Manchester United toyed with Sunderland in midweek cutting their defence to ribbons. Roy Keane has to find an experienced centre back to plug the Sunderland defence – and not one from the Championship.
Scoring streaks - Marcus Bent has scored 7 goals in his last 13 Prem appearances - that was over three months. It took him 90 games and over three years to score his previous seven Premiership goals.
Pity Blackburn’s Roque Santa Cruz. He’s scored seven goals in his last four games but during that spell Rovers have lost three games and tied the other.
After a week of international drama it is back to domestic action – well at least until the draw for the qualifying rounds of the 2010 World Cup takes place on Sunday. Seeding has been worked out but requires ratification on Saturday.
The World Cup draw calls for a blog special come Sunday so the weekend preview will be abbreviated. And to be honest it is just as well because there appears to be precious few games that have anything close to a “don’t miss’’ attached to them.
The bottom three teams in the Premiership will have a tough time ensuring that the hole that they are in doesn’t get any deeper. Derby are at home to Chelsea who are unbeaten in their last six games and have only conceded one goal in the process. Derby on the other hand have let in 30 more goals than that in 13 games and have only scored five goals. Projected over an entire season Derby would not even hit the 20 point mark.
Bolton with three draws in their last three Premiership games would be positively giddy if they found a way to extend the run to four against Manchester United. However, the form book and history both indicate anything but a United win to be an unlikely outcome.
Bolton have only led in two of their 13 games at half time while United have only trailed in a match for a total of 83 minutes out of the 1,170 Premiership minutes they have played this season. Bolton have never beaten United at home in the Premiership (3 draws and 5 losses) while they have conceded 40 goals to United in sixteen Premiership games.
That’s seven more than Chelsea have scored against Bolton and with a game more played. Cap it all off with the fact that Bolton have conceded more first half goals (13) than any other team in Premiership then the signs are that if Bolton are not careful the game could be over almost before it has started.
It looks as if Arsenal will be missing Cesc Fabregas through suspension as well as Flamini and Hleb who both picked up injuries on international duty. The appointment of Steve Bruce as Wigan manager is on again and the deal could be closed before the weekend.
Wigan’s two and a bit seasons in the Premiership has still to produce a win over Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea or Arsenal. This season the problem is magnified with a single draw against West Ham United the only point gained against a top ten team.
The most promising Premiership match of the weekend appears to be set for Tyneside where Newcastle faces Liverpool. Anytime these two go head-to-head there is bound to be mention of the two classic games in 1996 and 1997. Both matches finished in 4-3 wins for Liverpool. Both games saw leads seesaw back and forward in both cases Liverpool scored a winner in the dying seconds.
Newcastle holds an edge in Premiership games at St. James’ against Liverpool (6 wins, 4 losses and 4 draws) and with 13 points from 6 home games only Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal & Aston Villa have better home records this season.
This will be the first time this season that Newcastle have faced one of the “big four”. Newcastle also have a make-up game at home to Arsenal on December 5. Next week brings Blackburn so the Magpies are in for a testing time over the next few weeks.
Liverpool have only scored 7 goals in 6 away games but with 4 wins and 2 draws they have gained more away points (14) than any other side. What’s more they have kept the opposition off the score sheet four times in the six games.
Quick free kicks – Birmingham have five wins and three draws against Portsmouth on their last eight visits to St. Andrews…….the last meeting was a 5-0 thrashing but Birmingham were still relegated at season’s end while Portsmouth escaped the drop.
Blackburn and Aston Villa will be traveling with some confidence to play Fulham and Middlesbrough respectively. Blackburn have won four times in six Premiership visits to Craven Cottage while Villa have left the Riverside with seven wins and two draws in 12 games.
Everton and Sunderland may have played each other 144 times in league action over the past 117 years but they are as evenly split as they were in 1890. Back then both teams won their respective home matches 1-0 and since then they have traded wins with a few draws thrown in for good measure. Sixty-one wins each and twenty-two draws although Everton fans will claim cup matches as a tie breaker. In that case Everton “dominates” with two more wins.
The USSF makes an interesting selection to lead the under-17 program.
And before we move on I think the comments from the UK’s minister of sport Gerry Sutcliffe are worth addressing. Sutcliffe picked on John Terry’s reported salary, as well as losses run up by Chelsea. He might have done his case more good if he had got his numbers right but even so picking on an individual is out of line and so are his general comments.
Sutcliffe’s comment included "people in the street cannot understand salaries like that.” That might be the case but the same people in the street aren’t likely to understand the kind of money made by entertainers and movie stars or any other highly paid individual.
It’s called the free market and John Terry and other players are entitled to be compared to other stars because that is what they are. They provide millions of people with enjoyment (and stuff to write and comment on!!) every week and any nostalgic longing for the good old days before money ruined the game is beyond nostalgia and is in fact delusional.
Over a century ago the first player was paid to play the game and from that point on it was about money. Before the abolition of the maximum wage in England the money flowed from the spectators to the owners with a relatively small portion finding a way to the players.
At least now players are paid commensurate with the revenue they generate – they are the product, they are who we pay to see. And let us not forget that “we,” as the fans, are complicit in the whole scheme. If we didn’t pay to see a game – either live on the box - or buy merchandise, there would be no money to pay the salaries.
The weekend game previews will be considerable shorter as I will be spending much of Thursday and Friday on airplanes. But here is something to chew over with over a quarter of the Premiership season already in the books.
One of things that I look at regularly is how a team is doing compared to previous years and, more often than not, the season before. The simple approach is to look at the number of games played; the points gained and compare the number to the same point in the season before.
Using that criteria and applying it to the top five finishers from last season the gainers so far are Arsenal (+8) and Liverpool (+6) while Manchester United (-2), Chelsea (-4) and Tottenham Hotspur (-8) have all lost ground. If you are attempting to project these numbers to a league finish in May you have to consider the final league points from 2006/07.
Manchester United 89
Chelsea 83
Liverpool 68
Arsenal 68
Spurs 60
In order to catch Manchester United this season Chelsea would have to gain or United would have to lose 6 points this season. For Liverpool and Arsenal the magic number was 21 points and for Tottenham 29 points.
If you assume from here on the teams would generate the same record this season as they did last season then the league table for the five teams would look like this.
Manchester United 87
Chelsea 79
Arsenal 76
Liverpool 74
Spurs 52
Chelsea’s magic number has grown from 6 points to 8, while Arsenal’s gap is now 14 where it was 21 points at the start of the season. Liverpool’s gap has also closed considerably dropping from 21 to 13 points. In the case of Spurs the gap is now an unachievable 35 points up from 29 points.
However, there is perhaps a more interesting way to compare season to season records. And that is to contrast the records last season to this one against the same opposition.
Because of relegation and promotion you have to make an assumption about the teams that dropped a division and those that came up. For the purposes of this example Sunderland = Sheffield United, Birmingham City = Charlton Athletic and Derby County = Watford.
When you consider this scenario only Spurs are actually doing worse than last season having dropped 2 points over last season. Manchester United and Chelsea are exactly even, Liverpool have picked up 2 points and Arsenal leads the pack having gained 6 points on last season.
Projected to seasons end and assuming no change to last season’s head2head records for the remaining games the positions come out looking like this.
Manchester United 89
Chelsea 83
Arsenal 74
Liverpool 71
Spurs 58
What this ishows is that despite Liverpool and Arsenal making early gains it is still a long road to catch United and Chelsea – even though it doesn’t appear that way when looking at the present table.
Of course you have to consider that given United and Chelsea’s records last season there is more down side than up. However, one area available to Manchester United are the two games against Arsenal – they lost both last season. And of course on Saturday they meet for the first time this season.
Others games that stand out this weekend include Blackburn at home to Liverpool. Don’t expect many goals in this one – we’ve only seen five in Liverpool’s last five visits to Ewood Park. In MLS to second leg of the first round of play offs continue with all three games evenly balanced. We can expect more goals than in the first leg - as we saw on Thursday evening between the Fire and DC United.
Italy has the Italian derby with Juventus against Inter. In Spain Sevilla “welcomes” Liga champions Real Madrid while Atletico Madrid versus Villarreal looks to be an intriguing match.
It is own up time. Here are the predictions I posted last August along with the remarks made at the time. Also included are the actual 2006/07 Premiership positions.
Prediction Chelsea 1st - too strong. Actual position 2nd.
Prediction Liverpool 2nd - will push Chelsea hard but ultimately they will come up just short. Actual position 3rd
Prediction Manchester United 3rd - in the past those who written-off SAF have had to eat crow, but…… Actual position Champions.
Prediction Arsenal 4th – they will be great to watch again but a legitimate title challenge will have to wait. Actual position 4th.
Prediction Everton 5th – Simple stuff. Johnson + Beattie = more goals. The Toffees move up the Premiership. Actual position 6th
Prediction West Ham 6th – A side that showed last season that it has a great upside. Actual position 15th
Prediction Aston Villa 7th– The O’Neill factor. Actual position 11th
Prediction Tottenham 8th– Will they continue to build on last season’s progress or take a step back? The latter for me. Actual position 5th
Prediction Bolton 9th – More liable to slip back than to move forward. Actual position 7th
Prediction Newcastle 10th – Criticism of the Newcastle defence last season is not supported by the statistics. But where will the goals come from? Actual position 13th
Prediction Blackburn 11th – Europe plus loss of Bellamy and Rovers’ league position will slip. Actual position 10th
Prediction Middlesbrough 12th – Many expect Boro to struggle in the bottom four or five. They will have their problems early on but will settle into a mid-table position. Actual position 12th
Prediction Portsmouth 13th – Money, money, money it’s a ‘Arry Rednapp world. Actual position 9th
Prediction Reading 14th – Goals will not come as freely as last season but they will produce enough to guarantee season in the Premiership. Actual position 8th
Prediction Wigan 15th – Last season’s over-achievers will be given more respect this season – to their cost. Actual position 17th
Prediction Manchester City 16th – The second half of last season was a disaster and Stuart Pearce will be severely tested. Actual position 14th
Prediction Sheffield United 17th – It will touch and go and Neil Warnock’s wallet will be lighter by season-end. Actual position 18th
Prediction Fulham 18th – The Cottagers will be better away from home but they are unlikely to replicate last season’s form. Actual position 16th
Prediction Charlton 19th – Alan Curbishley got out in time. Actual position 19th
Prediction Watford 20th – Gap in class will be too much. Actual position 20th
At the same time we asked readers to submit their predictions for the top 5 Premiership finishers, the three sides to be relegated and who would be the most improved side and the most disappointing. I have defined “most disappointing” as the greatest number of points dropped from last season to the one just completed.
Only 5 people out of 70 picked Manchester United to win the Premiership. The most popular top 5 pick was Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur. Nobody picked the top 5 in the correct order but the closest was roseboy64 and looneyrooney14 who both picked the first three correctly but flipped Spurs and Arsenal.
Ancanada and Pablo_Chicago actually picked the top four in order but opted for Everton to take 5th spot and they finished two points behind Spurs in 6th.
At the other end of the table the most favoured combination was in reverse order Watford, Sheffield United and Fulham. Eleven opted for Charlton which was only half of the number who picked Fulham. Five picked the correct three teams to be relegated but not necessarily in the finishing order. They were roseboy64, Gunning_Steve, Irish_Scouser, andregurov, and FirstTouch. Only one poster got it spot on and that was owenspapa who picked the three teams to go down and in the correct order.
Next up was the most improved team. Based on points gained the honour goes to Portsmouth who improved by 16 points. The next best performance was Everton with 8 more points. Everton had been the choice of most back in August. Nine correctly picked Portsmouth – crispygreasy00, Venti_Vidi_Vici, Pablo_Chicago, roseboy64, cubsfan05, Irish_Scouser, Goldice007, AlanV and ooohalberto.
As for the most disappointing team that turned out to be Newcastle which had been the pick of five people back in August. Picking correctly were d2cents, wickedzoot, buffytvs, Irish_Scouser, Frenchmansv31, and wja425. Roseboy64 came very close to making a sweep but chose Charlton who only finished just behind the Magpies in the disappointing stakes by gaining 13 fewer points.
Thanks to all of you that took part and we will try to do it again in three months time.
Another interesting weekend of football. The "Dream Final" will have to be an unbelievable match to beat out the Chelsea-Blackburn game. How many times do you think Morten Gamst Pedersen has replayed in his mind the header that went inches wide with 8 minutes left?
With the Everton-Charlton game on delay I was sorely tempted to check the score on the internet. Fortunately, I resisted the temptation and an amazing finish was the reward.
In Italy it was like old times with Inter coming back from two goals down to Palermo to draw. Parma have sufferred only one loss in their last 8 games although five other games have finished as draws. Although Ascoli pulled of####ood result against Lazio (2-2) it wil be awfully tough to make up the lost ground. Messina are in free fall so it may come down to Parma, Reggina or Chievo joining the other two.
Barcelona scraped through courtesy of a last minute own goal to extend their lead at the top of La Liga. The schedule favours Barcelona with only three (Atletico, Getafe and Espanyol) of the eight games against top half teams. Of the 31 points dropped by Barcelona this year only 8 have come against bottom half of the table teams and they have yet to lose to a team from #11 down.
Levante became the latest team to drop into the bottom three in Spain. Athletic Bilbao and Celta Vigo under new coach Hristo Stoichkov both won. There is a full schedule of games in Italy this week and a partial schedule in England.
Coming off a 3-0 loss to Sheffield United another loss to Chelsea would leave West Ham at least 5 points from safety and with a much poorer goal difference. Sheffield United faces Manchester United before another 6 point encounter on Saturday - this time against Charlton.
Here are a few articles that have caught my eye recently.
Cup football dominates in Britain this weekend with semi finals of the FA Cup and Scottish Cup being played on Saturday and Sunday. Watford’s chances of putting one over on United might come down to United suffering a hangover from the 7-1 annihilation of Roma. The news that Ronaldo has signed a five year contract extension is great but not unexpected news for United fans.
Watford and Manchester United have only met three times in the FA Cup, with Watford winning the last meeting 1-0 in 1982. While United have faced Premiership sides each step of the way, Watford have only come across top flight opposition once and that was West Ham. Three of Watford’s four wins have been 1-0’s.
The other semi has Chelsea facing rugged Blackburn Rovers. On the face of it Chelsea have a more difficult task than Manchester United although Rovers’ form since reaching the last four has been pretty awful. However, Blackburn have only conceded one goal in five Cup games and in Brad Friedel they have a goalkeeper who is capable on the day of stymieing the best of teams. Chelsea can look to three wins over Blackburn this season, all achieved without a goal being conceded.
In Scotland Celtic are looking to make it to their 4th final in 6 years. First Division St. Johnstone (currently trailing last season’s Cup runners-up Gretna) are the opposition. These teams have met 5 times in the Scottish Cup with St Johnstone’s only win coming 71 years ago. St Johnstone have never appeared in a Scottish Cup Final and if they are to cause an upset it will likely be on account of ####mp;T international Jason Scotland who has scored 25 goals this season.
Hibs fans don’t need reminding that they last won the Scottish Cup in 1902 and are looking to make their second trip to Hampden Park for a final this season – they beat Kilmarnock in the CIS Cup Final a few weeks ago. The opposition is Dunfermline who finds themselves in a similar position to Watford although there are signs that the Pars may conspire to escape the clutches of relegation. Dunfermline beat Hibs 2-0 in the 1965 semi and went on and lost to Celtic in the final.
With United and Chelsea on Cup duty it is relegation match-ups front and centre in the Premiership. The biggest game is West Ham playing Sheffield United at Bramall Lane. West Ham are on a roll although it may still turn out to be too late. They have won their last three Premiership game including two away from home against Blackburn Rovers and Arsenal. On the other hand Sheffield United have lost three league games in a row, have only picked up one point in their last five games and face Manchester United and Charlton after this game. Without Rob Hulse who has contributed nearly one third of United’s goals it is difficult to see where United’s goals are going to come from.
Everton and Charlton are two of the hottest team sin the Premiership at the moment and are both unbeaten in their last six games. Charlton have had four consecutive clean sheets – 5 in their last 6 - and have reached a position where by they no longer have to hope that other results go there way in order to avoid the dreaded drop. However, remember that Charlton still have only one away win this season at that came at Portsmouth.
Other matches with relegation implications have Wigan at home to Spurs and Reading at home to Fulham who will have new manager Lawrie Sanchez in charge.
In MLS Kansas City make their 2007 league debut at DC United who lost their season opener last weekend in chilly (this is coming from someone in Winnipeg!!) Denver. DC looked very uninspired and perhaps suffering from their Champions League exertions against Chivas Guadalajara.
KC Wizards signed former Boro midfielder Carlos Marinelli although he is unlikely to see action for a couple of weeks because of fitness concerns. Marinelli, who is now 25, made his Premiership debut as a 17-year-old against Sheffield Wednesday on Boxing Day 1999. In 43 starting and substitute appearance in the Premiership the Argentine midfielder scored three goals.
Other notable games include Toronto FC away to New England, and two teams that won their seasons openers play in Denver – Colorado Rapids and Chicago Fire. For Toronto fans it will be a second look at their new team and particular attention will be paid to the effort over the full ninety minutes. The promise of last weekend’s first thirty minutes against Chivas only flattered to deceive as the side wilted badly in the last 2/3rds of the game.
Inter Milan are looking to continue their march to a second straight Serie A title when they face a badly slumping Palermo. Palermo are struggling with the loss of striker Amauri through injury and have taken only ten points from a possible thirty-six. A win over Palermo, and another against second-placed AS Roma next Wednesday, would bring the title for Inter with six games left.
Spain has some mouth watering encounters this weekend. After rolling over and dying in midweek against Chelsea, Valencia desperately needs to beat Sevilla in order to stay in contention for the title. A loss for Valencia would leave them at least 8 points behind the leaders with 8 games to go. Valencia have taken just four points from a possible 12 and will face Real Madrid away next week. In turn Sevilla must play Real Madrid at the Bernabeu on May 6.
Racing Santander versus Real Madrid has two of Spain’s form teams going head-to-head. Santander are coached by former Real Madrid reserve team coach Miguel Angel Portugal and are on a seven-match unbeaten streak with ex-Real player Pedro Munitis (4 goals) and giant Serbian Nikola Zigic (10 goals) proving to be a handful for opposition defenses. Santander have also moved into contention for a UEFA Cup spot
Real Madrid, despite so many drab performances, are very much in contention and continue to apply heat to league leaders Barcelona who find themselves 11 points off of last season’s pace. Barcelona leads Sevilla by a single point with Real Madrid a point further behind. Of the top three teams Barcelona looks to have the easiest run-in with a trip to Atletico Madrid (their bogey team) the most difficult challenge.
Enjoy the weekend action and feel free to comment!
This weekend has a number of potentially great games. You can add your predictions, thoughts and comments over the weekend. For viewers of Fox Sports World Canada it will be wall-to-wall FA Cup action.
Saturday Middlesbrough vs. Manchester United (12:30 EST)
Sunday Chelsea vs. Tottenham (8:30 EST) Blackburn vs. Manchester City (12:00 EST) Plymouth vs. Watford (2:00 EST)
I normally try to keep predictions to a minimum - for the obvious reason that I am not very good at them (Jeremy claims I think too much) - but seeing that it looks like being a rather special weekend are some predictions for this weekend.
Chelsea - Spurs 3-2 Boro - Man. Utd.1-1 Blackburn - Man. City 2-0 Plymouth - Wattford 2-1
Celtic - Rangers 1-2 Bayern M.- Werder B. 1-1 Barca - Real Madrid 2-0 Inter - Milan 1-2
Finally Barcelona are in the team spotlight this week.
And finally the draw for the quarter finals of the FA Cup…..
Middlesbrough or West Brom vs. Manchester United or Reading. Arsenal or Blackburn vs. Manchester City Chelsea vs. Tottenham Hotspur Plymouth vs. Watford
Plymouth lost to Watford in the semi final in 1984 and narrowly missed out on becoming the only Third Division side to make it to the Final.
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites.
Thank you to all who take time to visit this blog and especially to those of you who post your comments and thoughts.
PS - If you have questions please post them on the regular Monday blog. I am unable to answer e mails posted to the inbox on this site.
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