Here is the original synopsis and predictions for 2007/08 revisited with the addition of the final finishes, the highs and the lows and a couple of semi interesting statistics. So here is an opportunity to share my gaffs and a couple of thoughts that were reasonably close. And before some of you laugh too hard I will be linking back to the original comments and predictions that were posted back in August 2007 once the Whoops signal stops appearing.
Arsenal
Synopsis – If Arsenal is going to better last season’s record then there are two areas ripe for improvement. The first is their record against lower half opposition – last season Arsenal only won half of these games. The other is to get their noses in front. Last season Arsenal gave up the first goal in twenty Premiership games and although they collected 22 points in these matches (more than any other club) a repeat performance would nix any chance they might have of pushing the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United.
Arsenal needs to improve defensively – particularly on cross balls – and the wide midfield players (Rosicky, Hleb and possibly Eboue) need to chip in with goals. Gunner fans will be looking for Robin Van Persie to establish himself as a top rate striker while new arrival Eduardo Da Silva (work permit granted) needs to show that he can replicate his Dynamo Zagreb form at a higher level.
The departure of Thierry Henry has set off a wave of “Arsenal-in-decline” stories – don’t be surprised if his departure has the reverse effect.
Season’s narrative – Can Arsenal prosper without Thierry Henry?
Prediction–3rd. Actual–3rd. High – 1st Low – 7th
Stat Facts – An improvement of 15 points from last season (5 at home, 10 away) and the highest ever total points recorded by a team finishing 3rd in the Premiership.
Bolton
Synopsis – Although Sam Allardyce resigned before the end of last season this really is the start of the post big-Sam era. His replacement Sammy Lee has to prove that he can successfully move from his coaching position to the number one job – something that others have failed to accomplish at other clubs.
At first blush Lee appears to be mimicking the eclectic mix that was so successful under Allardyce. Arrivals from Europe (Cid, Dzemalli and Harsanyi), a veteran English midfielder written off by others (McCann), an underachieving defender (Samuel) and a bustling hard-working striker who to date has failed to make his mark in the Premiership (Helguson). Toss in a loan deal for Christian Wilhelmsson and you have very much the same recipe albeit with a different cook.
Bolton never dropped lower than 8th all last season in the Premiership - a repeat would be a remarkable achievement.
Season’s narrative – Can Little Sam make Bolton fans forget Big Sam?
Prediction – 15th Actual – 16th High – 13th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Bolton experienced the largest loss in points season over season – 20 fewer than in 2006/07. An unbeaten run of five matches at season’s end that earned Bolton eleven points brought salvation. To generate the points Bolton scored only six goals but conceded only two – just like old times at the Reebok.
Middlesbrough
Synopsis – In the last five seasons Boro has been as high as 7th and as low as 14th. Based on this summer’s moves the team is more likely to finish closer to 14th than 7th.
For all the abuse that is heaped on him Mark Viduka has been a remarkably consistent scorer since he arrived in English football from Celtic in 2000. He has average better than two goals every five game while with Leeds and Boro and that sort of rate is not going to be easy to replace.
Based on past performances Jeremie Aliadiere doesn’t look like an adequate replacement – even though Gareth Southgate has apparently been impressed by the Frenchman’s hunger. Tuncay Sanli is an interesting addition but he would not be the first striker to find the non-stop pace of the Premiership difficult to adapt to.
The scoring load will probably fall on the shoulders of the often transfer-rumored Yakubu Ayegbeni. So far Boro has denied that they are willing to allow him to leave should another club come in with a bid. Boro supporters should hope that the Nigerian striker stays put because without him Middlesbrough might be fighting relegation. With Yakubu a reasonably comfortable lower mid-table position is probably in the cards.
Season’s narrative – Can Boro breakout of mid-table mediocrity?
Prediction – 13th Actual – 13th High – 10th Low - 18th
Stat Facts – Not a head for heights? Boro spent one week in the top ten and only four weeks the season before. Middlesbrough finished the season with two consecutive wins – something they only accomplished one other time during the season – in December they beat Arsenal and Derby County.
Fulham
Synopsis – Lawrie Sanchez has spent a good part of the summer spending money. However, Sanchez may have added to the squad depth but he may not have significantly improved the starting eleven.
Fulham start their season at the Emirates Stadium against Arsenal and a win will equal their away record over the last two seasons. Not hard when the last two seasons have only brought about a win in each. On the road last season Fulham conceded more away goals (42) than any other Premiership club and finished the 2007 season with the longest current run of matches without scoring more than a single goal in a Premiership game – 12.
They also own the current longest sequence since winning by more than a single goal. Fifty Premiership games have come and gone since a 6-1 win over West Brom in February 2006.
Season’s narrative – Will the money spent turnout to be well spent?
Prediction – 18th Actual – 17th High – 9th Low – 19th
Stat Facts – Fulham threw away 27 points from winning positions this season. However, they did finish the season with four wins in their last five matches. The four wins accounted for half of the three-pointers they collected all season. They also finished with three consecutive away wins. Prior to that they had no away wins in 16 games and had only won twice away from home in the last two seasons.
Birmingham
Synopsis – There are very few holdovers from the side that was relegated at the end of the 2006 season. Lat summer Steve Bruce cleaned house and it led to promotion. Twelve months on and has been busy once more. In midfield Fabrice Muamba is now a permanent fixture after spending last season at St. Andrews on loan from Arsenal. He’s joined in midfield by French international Olivier Kapo (5th team since 2004). Gary McSheffrey proved to be a shrewd acquisition from Coventry City in August 2006 and he could be set to make an impression in the Premiership.
Up front Gary O’Connor will be looked to for goals after signing from Lokomotiv Moscow although Nicolas Bendtner (returned to Arsenal after a loan spell) will be missed. Birmingham conceded the second fewest goals in the Championship last season but Bruce has given himself some new options. Only Bruno N’Gotty has left while Ridgewell, Queudrue, Parnaby and Brazilian Schmitz (presently carrying an injury) have been added. Ghanaian World Cup goalkeeper Richard Kingson has signed although it is not clear whether Steve Bruce sees him as a replacement or back up for Colin Doyle.
Casting a potential shadow over the club is the ownership ambition of Hong Kong businessman Carson Yeung. Yeung has already bought 30% of the club and has plans to acquire the remaining shares. Full control for Yeung combined with a poor start and Birmingham may become the Hearts of the EPL.
Season’s narrative – Has Steve Bruce learned lessons from Birmingham’s relegation in 2006?
Prediction – 17th Actual – 19th High – 11th Low – 19th
Stat Facts – If half time results had held Birmingham would have finished in a comfortable 10th position. Only Derby County finished with fewer away points while the Birmingham defense only kept three clean sheets all season – a record shared with Derby County.
Liverpool
Synopsis – Last season’s challenge for the league was almost over before it began as Liverpool faltered out of the gate. That, combined with poor away form that brought only six wins away from Anfield negated an excellent home record. If Liverpool is to challenge for the league title then a strong start is mandatory.
Based on the moves that Rafa Benitez has made this summer he must be happy with his defense. Torres, Babel, Benayoun and Voronin have all been brought to Anfield to either score or create goals. Lucas Leiva arrives with a great reputation although he will have a difficult time breaking into the Liverpool midfield.
With Fernando Torres carrying the mantle of the Premiership’s most expensive summer signing most of the spotlight will be on the Spaniard. Views on the striker are polarized – the naysayers point to his average of around two goals every five games for Atletico Madrid. His supporters are quick to indicate that he is only 23-years-old and his Atletico strike rate is impressive given the club’s overall goal tally.
Liverpool finished 21 points behind the champions Manchester United last season and it will need a Herculean effort to close that gap.
Season’s narrative – Can Fernando Torres deliver the goals that Liverpool need?
Prediction – 4th Actual – 4th High – 1st Low – 9th
Stat Facts – Liverpool tied with Blackburn Rovers and Tottenham Hotspur for the most draws – 13. Only Manchester United scored more home goals than Liverpool (47 to 43). Ironically Liverpool gained four fewer points at home this season compared with last campaign although away points went from 22 to 34.
Fernando Torres became the first Liverpool player to score 20 Premiership goals since Robbie Fowler over a decade ago. What’s more of his 24 markers only one came from a set-piece. No other player scored more Premiership goals this season from open play.
Reading
Synopsis – Last summer critics were aghast when manager Steve Coppell decided to keep faith with the players that had secured promotion for Reading. When the Premiership kicked off last season not one Reading player had top flight experience in England.
However, Coppell’s gut instinct was spot on and Reading cruised through their first ever season in the Premiership. Once again, manager Steve Coppell appears to be largely content with his Reading squad.
Full back Emerse Fae was signed late last week from relegated side Nantes for a record club fee and joins another French defender Kalifa Cisse signed from Portuguese club Boavista. Leaving the Madjeski Stadium are little used full back Greg Halford (only signed from Colchester in January but sold on to Sunderland at a $2M+ profit) and influential midfielder Steve Sidwell (Chelsea on a Bosman transfer). The question of how and who will replace Sidwell (former Arsenal player) is still to be answered.
Last season Kevin Doyle carried much of scoring load with 13 league goals and although no other Reading player hit double figures 13 other players did chip in with goals through the Premiership season. Leroy Lita enjoyed a good run of scoring with six of his seven goals coming during and just after the Xmas period. Fellow striker Dave Kitson only managed two goals although he missed almost six months of the season after being injured on the opening day of last season.
Season’s narrative – Can Reading avoid the second-season jinx?
Prediction – 11th Actual – 18th High – 7th Low – 18th
Stat Facts – Reading only picked two points after being in a losing position – tied with Everton. The bottom fell out of Reading’s season both home and away. Compared to last season they collected 9 fewer points at home and 10 fewer away from home. The swing in goal difference – from +5 a year ago to -25 this May.
Blackburn
Synopsis – If Blackburn can hold on to the likes of Benni McCarthy and Morten Gant Pederson by the time the transfer closes then the pre-season can be regarded as a success. The form of McCarthy and Pederson last season was key contributors to a midway league finish and an FA Cup run that finished with an extra time semi final loss to Chelsea. Given the injuries to a number of key players last season it was a remarkable achievement by Mark Hughes’ side.
The arrival of goalkeeper Gunnar Nielsen may be more about Blackburn planning for a time when Brad Friedel will no longer be patrolling the penalty area while Maceo Rigters joins the club on the back of a series of great performances at this summers UEFA under-21 Championship.
Roque Santa Cruz arrives at Ewood Park with a great reputation but one that is not supported by the stats. A goal every five games for Bayern Munich is a disappointing return for a player who appears to have all the right tools. A resurrection at Ewood Park or a stop on the way to lower level obscurity?
Doubtless Blackburn will be as feisty as last season although a reduction in the number of penalties conceded (11) and red cards received (5) might help them.
Season’s narrative – Can Benni McCarthy maintain his spectacular form of last season?
Prediction – 9th
Actual – 7th High – 3rd Low – 10th
Stat Facts – Blackburn fought back from losing positions to pick up an additional 20 points – only Arsenal with 21 points was better. Blackburn only dropped six points (3 draws) at home to bottom half of the table teams.
West Ham United
Synopsis – A good number of players have come and gone since last season’s great escape but most of the attention this summer has been on Carlos Tevez. Now that Tevez has finally left West Ham fans can now focus their attention on the new season.
Manager Alan Curbishley has opted to strengthen the midfield and attack while keeping largely keeping faith with the defenders. Scott Parker will be reunited with his old Charlton boss and Freddie Ljunberg can still contribute goals if he can stay fit. However, French midfielder Julien Faubert will have to wait another six months at least before seeing Premiership action after rupturing an Achilles tendon in a warm up match.
The loss of striker Dean Ashton for almost all of last season to injury was a devastating blow to West Ham and hopes are high that Ashton’s injury woes are a thing of the past. He scored against his former club Norwich in a friendly match last week. A partnership with the fleet-footed Craig Bellamy might be a source of much needed goals for the Hammers.
Season’s narrative – Can West Ham bounce back from a traumatic 2006/07 season?
Prediction – 14th
Actual – 10th High – 5th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – In total West Ham spent 24 weeks and 18 out of the last 19 weeks in 10th spot. West Ham only won two consecutive games once this season – in September 3-0 wins over Reading and Middlesbrough.
Sunderland
Synopsis – Roy Keane was the story of last season’s Coca cola Championship and is likely to be one of the stories of this season’s Premiership. When he arrived a drop into League One looked to be a more realistic prospect than promotion back to the Premiership. But Keane set about the task of reinvigorating one of the great teams of years past.
Over twenty players were signed or moved on as Sunderland moved from 23rd spot to league champions. Keane has also endeavored to change the club culture as he insisted on pictures and mementos of past triumphs be displaced around the stadium and kyboshed the idea of the club publicly “celebrating” the promotion.
With only two players shipping out so far it looks as if Keane is intent on improving the depth of his player pool while focusing on younger players who should, in theory, still have room to improve.
Kieron Richardson should get a chance to nail down a consistent starting position after only spot duty with Manchester United. Michael Chopra returns to the North-East only twelve months after leaving Newcastle for Cardiff City. Chopra had been unable to break into the Newcastle starting line-up but 22 goals for Cardiff in the Championship last season had many questioning Newcastle’s decision to give up on the 23-year-old.
Centre half Russell Anderson is an intriguing buy for only $2M from Aberdeen. The 28-year-old has up to now played his entire career with Aberdeen and developed into one most consistent players in Scotland. Many believe that if Anderson had opted to move to a bigger club earlier in his career his he would have been capped more than nine times for his country.
Season’s narrative – Shaped by Brian Clough and Sir Alex Ferguson is Roy Keane the next great Premiership manager?
Prediction – 16th Actual – 15th High – 4th Low – 19th
Stat Facts –Sunderland may have been one of six teams that failed to collect 40 points but they still gained more points this season than in their two previous Premiership incarnations combined. Sunderland did however have the longest losing sequence of any Premiership team away from home with 10.
Manchester United
Synopsis – Sir Alex Ferguson has made a career out of proving his critics wrong so it would foolhardy to predict that United will not retain the title won last season. However, the planets really did align for United in 2006/07. Vidic established himself as the type of physical centre back United had been missing since the long ago departure of Jaap Stam; Paul Scholes orchestrated from the midfield rolling back the years as he gathered, prompted and dissected; Ryan Giggs was another who enjoyed an Indian Summer; Cristiano Ronaldo became the best player in the Barclay’s Premiership.
Can it happen again? Owen Hargreaves has been brought in to provide a more solid defensive shield in midfield while Nani and Anderson look to be the heirs to Scholes and Giggs. The “loan” of Carlos Tevez has now been settled and he will add some extra fire power up front - an extremely exciting addition to the Old Trafford staff. On paper United have strengthened the midfield and attack. However, should Gabriel Heinze be granted his wish to move then United’s back four might be a bit more susceptible to an injuries and/or suspensions.
Season’s narrative – How will Sir Alex Ferguson integrate all his attacking options while ensuring that the backdoor remains bolted?
Prediction – 2nd Actual – 1st High – 1st Low – 16th
Stat Facts – United spent 17 weeks in top spot and maintained that position from round 29 onwards. They claimed 52 of a possible 57 points at home dropping to Reading in the first game of the season and losing to Manchester City. United only conceded three goals in the last ten minutes of Premiership games this season – William Gallas (Arsenal 2-2), Matthew Upson (West Ham 2-1 loss) and a penalty from Michael Ballack (Chelsea 2-1) loss.
Everton
Synopsis – One look at the last five seasons should have Everton fans cringing as new season approaches. Each good season has been followed by disappointment and after last season’s sixth place finish a drop is in the cards.
However, if the Toffees can match last season’s performance of not losing more than two consecutive games then things may not turn out so bad. Moyes will also be eyeing the 13 games that finished as draws last season as a possible area for improvement.
With James Vaughn out for an extended period Everton may still make a move for a striker should one become available. The arrival of Steven Pienaar on loan should add more depth and a bit of goal scoring (15 goals in little less than 100 games during his time with Ajax) to the midfield. He will join the likes of Manuel Fernandez, Mikel Arteta and Tim Cahill in a midfield that if it is gels could be a stand-out in the league.
David Moyes will probably slot Phil Jagielka (from Sheffield United) into a back four that improved significantly as last season progressed.
Season’s narrative – Will Everton slip again? Prediction – 8th Actual – 5th High – 1st Low – 10th
Stat Facts – Everton only picked up two points over the entire season after being in a losing position but finished their highest ever Premiership points total. In the last four season’s Everton has finished 4th, 11th, 6th and 5th.
Aston Villa
Synopsis – Last season Villa may have finished 11th in the Premiership but they needed a nine-game unbeaten run at the end of the season to avoid a relegation dogfight. Martin O’Neill may achieved his initial objective of making Villa a difficult team to beat (only ten losses in thirty-eight games) but if his side is up the table then a good number of last season’s league high 17 draws need to turn into wins. That means more goals are needed from the strikers and from the midfield. Another ten goals and the defense holding firm could mean a move into the top six.
The jury is still out on John Carew (7 clubs in 9 seasons) but the arrival of Marlon Harewood gives O’Neill another option up front. O’Neill has under whelmed most Villa fans with the signing of Harewood but remember this is the same manager that resurrected the career of Chris Sutton. Gabriel Agbonlahor was a revelation last season but he may find that the second season is harder than the first. Nigel Reo-Coker will replace Gavin McCann and should bring more vigour and pace to the centre of the Villa midfield.
Villa had the sixth best defensive record last season but there is still room for improvement. An injury free season for Martin Laursen (he’s averaged less than 10 games a season since arriving from Milan in the summer of 2004) would certainly help while O’Neill may yet sign another goalkeeper to compete with Thomas Sorenson.
Overall the departures far exceed the arrivals at Villa Park which might lead us to conclude that Martin O’Neill is willing to go with some younger players.
Season’s narrative – With money going unspent will it turn out to be a false economy by Martin O’Neill?
Prediction – 6th Actual – 6th High – 5th Low – 17th
Stat Facts – Villa finished as the Premiership’s third top scorers behind Manchester United and Arsenal with 71 goals scored. Last season they scored 43 times. The extra goals (although they also conceded 10 more) helped them to five more wins than last season although their losses (10) remained the same.
Newcastle
Synopsis – Where do you start when it comes to Newcastle United? An incredibly well-supported club inadequately led over the years by bungling directors and often managers, is as good a place to start as any. But since the end of last season the club has been bought by Mike Ashley (although there is no guarantee that he will be any better than the others who have come before) and Sam Allardyce has taken over the managerial reins. But even then there have been consistent rumours that Allardyce would not have been the new owner’s pick had he been able to start with a clean slate.
As it is Allardyce has indicated that he is still in the market for some experienced players but even without any additional moves the spine of this team looks much stronger. New arrivals Czech defender David Rozehnal and Brazilian Cacapa will probably be the first choice centre back pairing while Joey Barton will become the fulcrum of the midfield. Up front Viduka and Smith (reunited after playing together at Leeds) will provide some added presence to a front line that was on the small side last season. Martins and Owen (depending on the combination) should benefit from the addition of Viduka and Smith.
Increased goal production is a priority for a team that was shut-out 17 times last season, and 16 times the season before.
Season’s narrative – Can Sam Allardyce bring real hope and progress to the long suffering Newcastle faithful?
Prediction – 10th Actual – 12th High – 1st Low – 14th
Stat Facts – In 2006/07 Newcastle enjoyed the 7th best record against teams in the top ten. This season they collected only 10 points from top half teams. But Newcastle still finished with the same number of points as last season (43) and improved their overall standing by one place.
Derby
Synopsis – Wining the Premiership play off is always a cause for great celebration but it soon dissipates as the challenge of staying in the top league sinks in. Manager Billy Davies has some good young players in the squad but overall it looks awfully like a squad built to do well in the Championship rather than the Premiership.
Robert Earnshaw (Derby’s record signing) will have another chance (he was with West Brom from 2004 to 2006) to show that can score goals regularly in the Premiership (to date 12 goals in 43 appearances) as he has done in the Championship (19 last season in an injury affected season). Steve Howard (16 goals) will likely team up with Earnshaw in attack.
Centre back Claude Davis who was relegated with Sheffield United last season is another player to be given a chance to prove his worth in the top flight.
Season’s narrative – How many times will Derby be described as gallant losers?
Prediction – 19th Actual – 20th High – 7th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Derby County now owns almost every Premiership record for futility.
Chelsea
Synopsis – Peace has broken out at Stamford Bridge. The enemy, for the moment at least, is the other nineteen teams of the Barclay’s Premiership and on paper this is the strongest squad that Mourinho has had since his arrival in the summer of 2004.
If Petr Cech can avoid injury it will only add to a defense that led the Premiership with 22 clean sheets. The on-going right back problem may remain although rumours persist that Sevilla’s Daniel Alves is on his way to Stamford Bridge. A work permit has been granted for Alex so the last season’s centre back crisis is less likely to reoccur - Tal Ben Haim as a squad player will also help.
That will allow Michael Essien to play is his more natural position in midfield with all the resulting benefits. The talk is a return to a 4-3-3 formation and if Mourinho decides to go that route then it is difficult to see how Michael Ballack and Andriy Shevchenko will fit in - essentially the same question as last year at this time.
Malouda was France’s player of the year and he carries a scoring threat. His work rate plus an ability to get past players makes him a great addition to the Chelsea squad. Given that Chelsea’s goal production dropped by 10 goals last season, more goals will be one of the critical factors if Chelsea is to make it a third Premiership title in four seasons.
Season’s narrative – Can Chelsea maintain focus and stop the in-fighting and strength sapping controversy?
Prediction - Champions Actual – 2nd High – 1st Low – 7th
Stat Facts – Chelsea only spent one week in first place – that came in round 4. Chelsea remains unbeaten at home for another season and collected exactly the same number of points as in 2006/07 – 43 points. Contrast these totals with the 55 points and 47 points they gained at home when winning the league in 2006 and 2005 and ironically you can see where Chelsea needs to improve. Chelsea’s impressive away form continued this season – 42 points from a possible 57 which is up two from the previous season.
Tottenham Hotspur
Synopsis – Martin Jol has been one of the busier managers this summer with another raft of new signings. Spurs’ start last season was woeful and they must find a way to integrate their new signings quickly if the hope to improve on their 5th place finish of the last two seasons.
When the team began to click last season goals were not a problem. Unfortunately as quick as Spurs could score them they let goals in as well. In all Premiership games involving Spurs produced 111 goals – more than any other Premiership team – but Spurs finished with a goal difference of only +3.
The return of a fully fit Ledley King will help plug the holes at the back and it is doubtful that England keeper Paul Robinson can produce back-to-back mediocre seasons. Younes Kaboul arrives with glowing recommendations. Youngster Gareth Bale (watch out for his free kicks) arrives from Southampton and is expected to solve the ongoing left back problem at White Hart Lane. However, there doesn’t appear to be a ready made solution at hand on the left side of midfield.
With a price tag of $35M the expectations for Darren Bent are justifiably high and many will be watching to see how Jol goes about fitting the former Charlton player into a strike force that already has Berbatov, Robbie Keane and Jermain Defoe pushing for a spot.
Season’s narrative – Can Spurs spending finally deliver some silverware as well as entertainment?
Prediction – 5th Actual – 11th High – 9th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Spurs set a record for points lost from a winning position – 33 over the season. They also gained 14 fewer points than they did twelve months ago and that means they have slipped 19 points from two seasons ago. This season saw Spurs participate in another galaxy of goals – this time their 38 games produced 127 (66-61) goals up from 111 (57-54) the season before.
Portsmouth
Synopsis - Pompey was the moved improved team last season so expectations have grown since the club just avoided relegation at the end of the 2006 season. Portsmouth’s improvement was almost exclusively on account of their form at Fratton Park. Sixteen more points were secured at home last season over the previous season and only the top four lost fewer home matches. Only three teams - Bolton, Charlton and Chelsea – left Fratton Park with full points. Harry Rednapp will focus on significantly improving Pompey’s away form which was poor last season - three wins and only 16 points was a poor return.
Pompey appears to have strengthened throughout their line up. Sylvain Distin is a good addition to the defense – particularly if Sol Campbell should up and leave – while Sulley Muntari and Arnold Mvuemba will join the likes of Gary O’Neil and Matthew Taylor in a workman like but effective midfield.
Although Kanu’s future at Fratton Park is still undecided the arrival of David Nugent and Nigerian John Utaka should add to Pompey’s goal scoring threat. These two could be become very important players at Portsmouth.
However, the signing of Hermann Hreidarsson should be enough to sober up any Pompey fans dreaming of 2008 glory. Since arriving in England in 1997 Hreidarsson has played for Crystal Palace, Brentford, Wimbledon, Ipswich and Charlton. Only Brentford escaped relegation while the Icelandic international was on the books.
Season’s narrative – Can Portsmouth become road warriors?
Prediction – 7th Actual – 8th High – 4th Low – 15th
Stat Facts – Portsmouth had the most consecutive wins away from home this season - 6. When opening the scoring Pompey was the only side with a 100% record 14 out of 14. But they did fail to find the mark 15 times - only Sunderland and Derby were worse. Even so Portsmouth improved on last season’s previous high water mark of a 9th place finish and 54 points with three more points and one place higher.
Manchester City
Synopsis – If City supporters felt as if they spent last season in purgatory, the good news is that miserable situation may get better. The bad news is that it might not get all that much better even though a lot of cash has been splashed this summer.
Sven Goran Eriksson, successful in Sweden, Italy and Portugal, has been throughout his career a counter-attacking coach and so the City Of Manchester Stadium may again be a ground where thrills are administered from a drip. However, given that City only scored ten goals at home all season and set a new top flight record for scoring futility in the process it really can’t get any worse.
Bulgarian Martin Petrov looks to be a good acquisition and Geovanni has been brought in to add some craft in the last third of the field. Since his move to Europe the 27-year-old has done little to fulfill his earlier promise – City might be his last chance. Swiss youngster Gelson Fernandes is another recruit and he will battle for a midfield spot.
Rolando Bianchi was a scoring sensation (18 goals) with Reggina last season but he has little else in his career to substantiate the fee of over $16M that City paid for his services. A few seasons ago when with Lecce Bulgarian Valeri Bozhinov was one of the great young up and coming players. Since then his career has been moving but more sideways than ahead. If the pairing can hit it off then City’s prospects will look a lot rosier. However that is a very big if.
Elano, Javier Garrido and Vedran Corluka were added at one fell swoop last week bringing new signings so far to 8 and not one English player amongst them. With Sylvain Distin off to Portsmouth, Eriksson will likely opt to move Micah Richards to centre back. Eriksson will focus on making his side more difficult to beat but from there on he may run out of ideas – on the field anyway.
Season’s narrative – Is the Manchester City secretarial pool safe?
Prediction – 12th Actual – 9th High – 1st Low – 9th
Stat Facts – Of the top ten teams only Manchester City show up in the bottom half of the “second-half” table. City matched their best ever Premiership placing of ninth and could have improved on that if that had been able to hold on to a modicum of their early season home form. City took a maximum twenty-seven points from their first nine matches at the City of Manchester Stadium but only ten points from their last ten games at home. Even so City finished with a season-to-season improvement of 13 points.
Wigan
Synopsis – Apart from a relegation saving final day of the season win over Sheffield United the latter part of last season is something that Wigan do not want to replicate. Last season Wigan took 18 points from their first 12 games; and 20 points from their other 26 games. They also conceded more goals at home (30) than any other team and suffered more losses at home than any other team in the Premiership – 10. And just for good measure Wigan led the Premiership in the unwanted category of points dropped from winning positions – a massive 26 points.
More than enough for new manager Chris Hutchings to work on you would think. He will be hoping that injury-dogged keeper Chris Kirkland stays. In front of Kirkland the arrival of Titus Bramble and Mario Melchiot is to say the least being met with some raised eyebrows.
Michael Brown brings his unique competitive (I’m being kind) qualities to the JJB along with former WBA midfielder Jason Koumas. Up front Antoine Sibierski is the only addition and it is doubtful that the 33-year-old Frenchman is suddenly going to become a regular goal scorer.
Season’s narrative – Who will replace Chris Hutchings when he is fired in November?
Prediction – 20th Actual – 14th High – 1st Low – 19th
Stat Facts – After spending nine of the first 24 rounds in the relegation zone Wigan “escaped” never to return over the remaining 14 rounds. With Steve Bruce in charge Wigan won eight, lost eight and drew eight.
Actual Prediction Manchester United 1 2 Chelsea 2 1 Arsenal 3 3 Liverpool 4 4 Everton 5 8 Aston Villa 6 6 Blackburn 7 9 Portsmouth 8 7 Manchester City 9 12 West Ham United 10 14 Tottenham Hotspur 11 5 Newcastle 12 10 Middlesbrough 13 13 Wigan 14 20 Sunderland 15 16 Bolton 16 15 Fulham 17 18 Reading 18 11 Birmingham 19 17 Derby 20 19
And finally I took a look back to your comments from August 2007.
From what I can see nobody got the top three correct let alone the top five although there were around ten of you that correctly chose United followed by Chelsea. The relegation predictions came no closer to reality. No one got all three right although there were a solid number of you who targeted Birmingham and Derby County.
For all of you who contributed thank you and a special award to andesras6292 who wrote on August 14, 2007 – “bobby your predictions suck. and anyone who think arsenal is going to finish top 3 are crazy the top 3 are going to be liv'pool chelsea and man utd not arsenal. and liv'pool are going to stink because torres isnt good at all i dont see whjat people see in him he cant even score a one on one. last game he missed world class chances and if he is world class he should have scored he is just a overpaid bad striker and isnt going to be good for liv'pool.”
andesras6292 – where ever you are – congratulations. You my friend, are without a doubt this blog’s version of Derby County 2007/08.
And Sepp Blatter has made his views known. Don’t be surprised if the Premier League tries to turn these comments into a press release that talks of positive steps.
John Ley of the Daily Telegraph predicts how the top three in the Premiership will make out over the last 12 rounds.
And a reminder to Canadian fans that a group called the Canadian Soccer Federation
has recently issued a plan that proposes to significantly change the
way the game operates in Canada. Your input is not only accepted but encouraged which is more than can be said for the Canadian Soccer Association.
FA CUP The last sixteen of the FA Cup would seem to be a good starting point for this weekend’s preview. I have read a couple of pieces this week from pundits writing that games such as Manchester United vs. Arsenal rarely life up to expectations.
With the exception of the 2005 FA Cup snore-fest I can think of very few United – Arsenal games that have not been entertaining and in many cases outstanding.
Although both teams no doubt have the Premiership as a greater priority both clubs have a great cup tradition that pre-dates the arrival of Wenger and Ferguson and I can’t see either team rolling over – although the loser may claim otherwise.
The sidebar to this match is the impact it may have on the race for the league title.
A United win will boost confidence and five points to make up with twelve games left will suddenly look not so daunting.
Vice versa for the Gunners – a win at Old Trafford and the rest of the season will hold no fears.
If the visits of Barnsley and Huddersfield to Anfield and Stamford Bridge result in anything but conclusive home wins it will constitute a major surprise. Former Chelsea defender Frank Sinclair is on Huddersfield’s books along with former Everton player Danny Cadamarteri.
If things had gone according to planned Wayne Rooney would have been the next Danny Cadamarteri but it all went pear shaped. The FA Cup has already proven to be special for a Huddersfield club that is celebrating a centenary this year.
Birmingham City were victims in the third round and Oldham were dispatched last round.
Huddersfield may now be a mid-table League One side but there was a time when they dominated English football to an extent rarely seen.
They won the FA Cup win in 1922 and were runners up in 1920, 1928, 1930 and 1938. They also won three straight English First Division Championships (1924, 25 and 26) and runners up in 1927, 28 and 34.
One of England’s legendary managers Herbert Chapman was in charge from 1921-25 before leaving to take the Arsenal job. And as part of their 100th year celebrations Huddersfield is set to play Arsenal sometime in the summer.
Fifteen months ago Barnsley looked set to drop back to League One after securing a surprise promotion by way of the play-offs the season before. Out went manager Andy Ritchie (to surface a short while later at Huddersfield) and he was replaced by Coach Simon Davey.
Davey rallied the troops and secured one more year in the second tier of English football. In the process Barnsley extended their record as the team that has spent more time in English football’s second tier than any other.
Recognizable names on the Barnsley roster - Rohan Ricketts (former Spurs), Tony Warner (former Liverpool back up and on loan from Fulham) and Jon Mackem who had spells with both Manchester clubs. Mackem however is cup tied and not available.
Players to watch out for are apparently the midfield duo of Brian Howard and Anderson Da Silva on loan from Everton.
Quick free kicks
Both Sheffield United (home to Boro) and Coventry (home to West Brom) fired managers Bryan Robson and Ian Dowie this week. Under Robson Bolton and Manchester City were beaten in the FA Cup and Dowie’s Coventry side knocked Manchester United out of the Carling Cup and Blackburn from the FA Cup.
Preston have made it to the 5th round for the third straight year but are still struggling to gain traction in the Championship under former Everton assistant Alan Irvine. Preston sits one point above the last relegation spot but the two clubs below both have a game in hand.
Serie A
The Juventus vs. Roma match this weekend may decide whether or not Roma will retain a passing interest at least in top spot (Inter leads by eight points) or become involved in a fight for second with Juventus and possibly Fiorentina and Milan.
Inter continues to charge with only one Serie A loss in their last sixty-two matches and faces Livorno on Saturday. Juventus and Roma appear to be very evenly matched with Juventus unbeaten in their last 13 (seven draws) while Roma’s only loss in their last sixteen games was a shock 3-0 loss to Siena a fortnight ago.
While Juve can look to only one home loss this season Roma’s loss to Siena was their single set back away from the Olympico. The first game between these two this season finished with them sharing four goals – a draw is on the cards again.
The Genoa derby finds both clubs enjoying a good run of form with only two losses in their last ten combine games. Recent form however masks Sampdoria’s exceptionally poor performances away from home. T
heir seven points is by far the worst of teams currently in the top ten and a push for a European spot is going to require an improvement over the last eight away matches.
Mario Borriello was called up to the full Italy squad for the game against Portugal on account of his goal scoring for Genoa this season.
The hard grafting Borriello has scored 12 of Genoa’s 23 goals this season and without his goals Genoa would not be sitting comfortably in ninth spot. Ten of his 12 goals have come in the second half this season and in total his goals have been worth 15 points to Genoa.
If the Premiership League was a person then there is no doubt that it would be considered to be a serial solicitor. And when I say solicitor I don’t mean in the context of a lawyer but rather, in the context of a hooker.
The announcement made yesterday that the Premiership intends to extend the season by one game to be scheduled for warm foreign climes starting in 2011, just reinforced the belief that when it comes to money nothing will stand between the Premiership and the possibility of collecting another pound note.
The Premiership proposal would have ten additional matches played on one day in January with the draw rigged to ensure that the top five teams do not play each other. The Premiership expects cities throughout the world to bid for the “privilege” of hosting these games that involve teams from what porn-king and reluctant Birmingham City owner David Gold calls the “the greatest league the world has ever known.”
The initial reasons put forward for intensely disliking the proposal – an unbalanced league, a rigged schedule, even greater fixture congestion – are all valid and in most situations would be grounds to mercilessly ridicule the poor sod that hatched the idea. However, none of these compelling arguments will stand in the way of the Premiership pushing forward with the scheme.
After all, what has fairness got to do with it when more money can be made? Particularly when you have a system that now needs an ever increasing amount of cash to feed a seemingly insatiable appetite. Any denomination, any source – no questions asked.
Of course, in support of the Premiership announcement we again read of the totally fictitious 1B people that watched the Arsenal vs. Manchester United league game at the end of 2006 - a number unjustifiable by logic and research but apparently quite reasonable to the fertile imagination of a Premiership P.R. hack.
What’s more we are told the NFL, NBA and NHL all do it so why not the Premiership? These leagues do it for a number of reasons – one of which is they are trying to sell sports that clearly the rest of the world could not give a toss about.
These foreign based match ups should be considered demeaning and a sign of weakness rather than one of strength.
A case can also be made that the foreign audience does not actually have an appetite for the Premiership – their appetite stretches to perhaps five or six Premiership teams.
Despite the tone of the self serving announcements the fact that the Premiership intends to ensure that a top five team will be at each of the venues is a clear admission that they know that the core appeal of the Premiership is limited to the usual suspects.
As for the others - toss some money their way and make supportive comments about selling more Birmingham City jerseys to the folks in Miami and that should satisfy them. Rather like the way the Premiership has gone over the last decade. Who cares about winning when mediocrity can be so profitable? Danny Blanchflower called it the “Glory Game” for most it has become the “survival but still make gobs of money game.”
And so is this move inevitable? Probably not. Because no matter how self important the Premiership has become and no matter how insatiable its appetite for money, it is still a midget when set against Big Daddy – FIFA.
After the early headlines had grown stale late Thursday someone got around to asking FIFA what they thought of the proposal. Reuters reported a senior FIFA source as stating "The statutes of FIFA are quite clear, so from a first glance it would seem the Premier League will find it difficult to get their way."
Behind the bureaucrat-speak there are a number of powerful reasons why the Premiership’s idea to conquer the globe is in for a rough ride. First off it is difficult to come up with one national association – even the FA as will see later - who would or should be in favour of this proposal.
How many associations are going to willingly accept the Premiership juggernaut rolling into town, giving prominence to conflicting sponsors, taking attention away from the domestic league and then leaving a few days later with a suitcase of cash that wasn’t spend on supporting the local product?
Then you have sanctioning and jurisdictional issues regarding players, security, officials and a host of other logistical details. All could be overcome given the existence of goodwill on both sides. But how much goodwill can you expect when confronted by a modern day Robin Hood-in-reverse intent on taking from the footballing poor while further enriching pampered players and robber-baron owners?
Beyond possible “host” associations the other associations especially in Europe are not likely to embrace the proposal either. The mammoth income enjoyed by English Premiership clubs already threatens to tip the balance of power between the big five associations (an argument could be made that it already has) and any threat of additional income flowing the Premiership’s way would not be considered as a positive move by the likes of Italy, Spain, Germany, and France.
So these national associations are far more likely to campaign against the idea than sit on the sidelines even though they may initially make some glib semi-supportive noises – just in case.
The implementation date of 2011 is also interesting and should the Premiership eventually succeed and receive FIFA approval there is always the possibility that some residual resentment might surface when the twenty-four man FIFA Executive Committee vote later in 2011 to award the hosting rights to the 2018 World Cup. Is that really a risk worth taking for the Football Association?
But more important than any of these reasons is that if this idea goes ahead and is implemented then a massively important precedent will have been set. Initially it will mean that other leagues will be free the try the same thing with the possibility that patchwork schedules will become the norm rather than an original small exception.
However, far greater is the potential for such a move to be used to engineer a European league or ultimately a Global league.
The G14 may have disbanded just a few short weeks ago but that does not mean that their power base and ideas have evaporated never to return.
UEFA and FIFA know that an Escape Committee could easily be reformed if the scent of more money is in the air and a precedent such as the Premiership is seeking is at hand. So in the end the Premiership can study and fine tune their proposal all they want but do not expect it to be given the green light by FIFA.
Tim Vickery on the start of theCopa Libertadorestogether with comments on Chelsea and Birmingham City’s new Argentine recruits.
For all the complaining we have heard about the African Cup of Nations it does not appear to have stopped the majority of Premier clubs from intensely scouting the tournament.
A decision with significant implications for players looking to walk away fromlong term contracts has finally been made.
And Sepp Blatter’s response to the rule that he helped to bring in.
The African Cup of Nations is down to the last eight and fans in Canada will be glad to know that French language broadcaster TV5 will be televising games from the quarter finals on. For others in North America there are internet options including All Soccer Africa.
My viewing to date has been limited to the highlights of each game delivered over the internet so take the predictions with plenty of salt. However, there has been some cracking goals and a couple of good matches. Now that we have reached the last eight here is hoping that the quality is maintained. Two games are scheduled for Sunday and the others on Monday.
Ghana vs. Nigeria Former MLS (Chicago, Colorado and San Jose) striker Junior Agogo has become a bit of a folk hero during this tournament. The consummate journeyman player looks to have finally settled at Nottingham Forest and despite being left out of the 2006 World Cup he seems to have established himself as a regular member of the Ghanaian international squad.
Ghana needed two very late goals (one from Agogo against Namibia) to secure wins in the first two matches before a straight forward 2-0 win over Morocco sealed a quarter final spot.
Although Nigeria could be considered slightly fortunate to qualify from group B they should not be underestimated. A stunning goal from Salomon Kalou was the difference in their opener against Ivory Coast and although a scoreless draw versus Mali was a disappointing result it did leave the door slightly ajar for Nigeria.
Goals finally came Nigeria’s way as Mikel and Yakubu notched second half markers to beat a Benin side that was far out of their depth. Ivory Coast did the rest by refusing the rest on the fact that they had already secured passage to the knock stage and beat Mali 3-0.
Nigeria has a terrific record in the African Cup of Nations since 1984. Out of the thirteen tournaments Nigeria has made it to the final five times while wining once in 1994. On four other occasions they have reached the semi final stage and taken 3rd place each time.
Prediction – Ghana 1-0 Nigeria
Ivory Coast vs. Guinea The FIFA rankings may be suspect at the best of times but even so few soccer fans outside of Africa would be able to name Guinea as the third ranked side on the continent. They may have never made it to the World Cup Finals to date but 2010 may become their first.
This is the third straight time that Guinea has made the last eight in this tournament but any hope of progressing further this time has been severely damaged by the suspension handed to Pascal Feindouno of St. Etienne.
Between qualification games and the first two of the finals the attacking midfielder has scored eight goals in 10 games. However, his double over Morocco was overshadowed by a sending off for violent conduct. A two game ban meant he missed the final group game (a 1-1 draw) against Namibia but more importantly he will also miss the quarter final against Ivory Coast.
The Ivorians can score goals (8 so far) and give little away in defense – only one goal conceded in seven games at the qualifying and finals stages.
Prediction – Ivory Coast 2-0 Guinea
Egypt vs. Angola This might very well be the time of the round with the reigning African Champions facing a 2006 World Cup qualifier that proved tough to break down. Despite winning at home two years ago Egypt was less than impressive during the qualification phase for this edition.
But you would hardly know it based on their opening two games that saw them blow away Cameroon 4-2 and Sudan 3-0. The opportunity to rest Mohamed Zidan was taken in the final game and the resulting 1-1 draw with Zambia was more than enough to see the Champions through as group C winners.
This is the 22nd time that Egypt has appeared in the African finals and five times they have gone on to win the tournament. For a country that has historically done so well regionally only two World Cup appearances in 1934 and 1990 seems meager.
On the other hand their quarter final opponents Angola will be making a first appearance in the last eight and are looking to build on some fine displays in Germany in 2006. At World Cup 2006 the Angolans proved to be exceedingly tough to break down although they were missing a cutting edge up front.
This problem may have now been solved with the emergence of Manucho, a recent Manchester United signing. A converted winger Manucho entered the tournament with two goals in 10 international appearances but has since scored three more. With veteran Flavio also available up front Angola now have a legitimate scoring threat from their front pairing. Angola will also be eager to move deeper into the tournament as they are scheduled to host in 2010.
Prediction – Egypt 2-1 Angola
Tunisia vs. Cameroon Cameroon has bounced back from a first game loss to Egypt and with Samuel Eto’o (5 goals and an African Cup of Nations scoring record) in the side they present a potent threat. With ten goals so far Cameroon is the top scorers in the tournament and a defense record of five conceded has to be placed in the context of four goals lost to Egypt.
Tunisia won the tournament when they hosted four years ago and they have also reached the quarter finals twice and a semi final in their last six tournament appearances. Tunisia is unbeaten with a win over a bitterly disappointing South Africa side and two draws with Angola and Senegal.
Prediction – Tunisia 1-3 Cameroon
For my money the best game of the weekend in Europe is set for Florence where Fiorentina faces a Milan side that desperately want to dislodge the Viola from the fourth spot that they currently occupy. Both clubs are enjoying a fine run of form with Fiorentina having won four straight and Milan with four wins in their last five games.
Milan sits in sixth spot seven points behind Fiorentina but with a game fewer played. While Brazilian teenager Pato has been capturing the headlines with three goals since his debut against Napoli three weeks ago, the much maligned Gilardino has quietly gone about his business and has scored two vital away goals against Udinese and Reggina. Both were game winners and in all Gilardino has scored seven Serie A goals and all have come away from home.
Fiorentina’s game breaker has been Romanian Adrian Mutu. Mutu has rediscovered the form that made him one of the most sought after players in the world and it is surely no coincidence that it has coincided with him reuniting with his old boss from the Parma days Cesare Prandelli.
After being sacked by Chelsea Mutu signed on at Juventus but failed to make a signicant impact. Fiorentina moved in and last season brought 16 goals in 33 Serie A games. This season Mutu has been responsible for close to 40% of Fiorentina’s goal production with thirteen goals in his twenty appearances.
After a week of international drama it is back to domestic action – well at least until the draw for the qualifying rounds of the 2010 World Cup takes place on Sunday. Seeding has been worked out but requires ratification on Saturday.
The World Cup draw calls for a blog special come Sunday so the weekend preview will be abbreviated. And to be honest it is just as well because there appears to be precious few games that have anything close to a “don’t miss’’ attached to them.
The bottom three teams in the Premiership will have a tough time ensuring that the hole that they are in doesn’t get any deeper. Derby are at home to Chelsea who are unbeaten in their last six games and have only conceded one goal in the process. Derby on the other hand have let in 30 more goals than that in 13 games and have only scored five goals. Projected over an entire season Derby would not even hit the 20 point mark.
Bolton with three draws in their last three Premiership games would be positively giddy if they found a way to extend the run to four against Manchester United. However, the form book and history both indicate anything but a United win to be an unlikely outcome.
Bolton have only led in two of their 13 games at half time while United have only trailed in a match for a total of 83 minutes out of the 1,170 Premiership minutes they have played this season. Bolton have never beaten United at home in the Premiership (3 draws and 5 losses) while they have conceded 40 goals to United in sixteen Premiership games.
That’s seven more than Chelsea have scored against Bolton and with a game more played. Cap it all off with the fact that Bolton have conceded more first half goals (13) than any other team in Premiership then the signs are that if Bolton are not careful the game could be over almost before it has started.
It looks as if Arsenal will be missing Cesc Fabregas through suspension as well as Flamini and Hleb who both picked up injuries on international duty. The appointment of Steve Bruce as Wigan manager is on again and the deal could be closed before the weekend.
Wigan’s two and a bit seasons in the Premiership has still to produce a win over Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea or Arsenal. This season the problem is magnified with a single draw against West Ham United the only point gained against a top ten team.
The most promising Premiership match of the weekend appears to be set for Tyneside where Newcastle faces Liverpool. Anytime these two go head-to-head there is bound to be mention of the two classic games in 1996 and 1997. Both matches finished in 4-3 wins for Liverpool. Both games saw leads seesaw back and forward in both cases Liverpool scored a winner in the dying seconds.
Newcastle holds an edge in Premiership games at St. James’ against Liverpool (6 wins, 4 losses and 4 draws) and with 13 points from 6 home games only Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal & Aston Villa have better home records this season.
This will be the first time this season that Newcastle have faced one of the “big four”. Newcastle also have a make-up game at home to Arsenal on December 5. Next week brings Blackburn so the Magpies are in for a testing time over the next few weeks.
Liverpool have only scored 7 goals in 6 away games but with 4 wins and 2 draws they have gained more away points (14) than any other side. What’s more they have kept the opposition off the score sheet four times in the six games.
Quick free kicks – Birmingham have five wins and three draws against Portsmouth on their last eight visits to St. Andrews…….the last meeting was a 5-0 thrashing but Birmingham were still relegated at season’s end while Portsmouth escaped the drop.
Blackburn and Aston Villa will be traveling with some confidence to play Fulham and Middlesbrough respectively. Blackburn have won four times in six Premiership visits to Craven Cottage while Villa have left the Riverside with seven wins and two draws in 12 games.
Everton and Sunderland may have played each other 144 times in league action over the past 117 years but they are as evenly split as they were in 1890. Back then both teams won their respective home matches 1-0 and since then they have traded wins with a few draws thrown in for good measure. Sixty-one wins each and twenty-two draws although Everton fans will claim cup matches as a tie breaker. In that case Everton “dominates” with two more wins.
Mark - Now that LA Galaxy have a big-name Manager, if you owned the NY Red Bulls, whom would you try to get as their Manager? And, is that different from whom you think they can realistically get?
Bobby – Perhaps the biggest problem that the Red Bulls ownership has is convincing someone that they will be given time to turn this team and move it in the right direction. After a while if managers keep on getting moved then the type of manager that you are going to attract is not likely to be the one you need.
No name jumps out at me at the moment but whoever it is has to have some media savvy. The Red Bulls ownership needs to see the manager as someone who fits into an overall plan. The plan will then dictate the type of manger that the club needs to go after.
ManUtd2006 - I agree with one of the above bloggers about having a preliminary round of qualifying in Europe because seeing Germany thrashing San Marino 13-0 is a nuisance. Say the bottom 16 ranked teams to compete for 4 to 5 spots in a small tournament in order to give them something to fight for if not the Finals. What do you think on that?
Doing so, bigger teams do not have to play up to 14 matches to qualify because it is grueling to the players, managers, and clubs concerned.
One more question, I did not watch the MLS Cup Final because there are better things to watch on TV. Did Houston play well enough or Revs had a bad day?
Bobby – It makes sense but it is not likely to happen. The extra games (even against minnows) brings in extra television and gate revenue for UEFA and the national associations and they are not about to give that.
There is another even simpler way of reducing the number of games and still allowing the small nations to compete – logistically playing a 16-team tournament to get down to four teams or so is not necessarily as easy as it might sound.
The alternative is to go back to the World Cup qualifying system from the 70s and before. Fourteen groups instead of seven and only the top team qualifies. It would drop the number of game needed to six or eight. The chances of it ever happening – nil.
I enjoyed the MLS Cup Final - a much, much better game than last season. The Revs owned the first half but the Dynamo turned it around in the second.
Henry14 - Alan Hansen -1989 I was part of a Liverpool side that would have won the championship had they limited Arsenal to a 1-0 win at Anfield. It proved a very awkward match to prepare for - Arsenal knew exactly what they had to do - and in the event we conceded a second goal and lost the title.
Bobby – That might be the case but Arsenal knew they had to win 2-0. Croatia knows that they have to turn up – no matter the score they have already qualified. The issue is really down to the finals next summer.
Here is a piece from the Daily Telegraph that maps out possible seeds.
“But victory over Croatia does have a huge significance in terms of the Uefa co-efficients used for the Euro 2008 finals draw in Lucerne on Dec 2. An England triumph would improve their co-efficient to 2.318, taking them ahead of Croatia's 2.273 and, most significantly, replacing Slaven Bilic's team among the four second seeds for next summer.
As No 2 seeds, England could be drawn in a group with first seeds Austria, Switzerland, holders Greece and either Holland or Germany (depending on results tonight). England would then avoid the talents of Italy, the Czech Republic and either Holland or Germany. A draw tonight would leave England with a worse co-efficient than Croatia and would condemn McClaren's side to a place among the No 3 seeds, seriously complicating their hopes of a safe passage to the knock-out stage”.
Getz76 - How did Alex Prus let Smith off with only a caution after an intentional head-butt? I think someone needs to send the man a copy of the laws. I understand not wanting to "ruin" a cup final, but there is no place for that.
Bobby – I thought he was very lucky to stay on the park after doing what he did. I think there is also another angle to the incident. If I was Craig Weibel then I knew from that point on that I had the beating of Khano Smith. Smith reaction was one of frustration coming right after the Houston equalizer and was a sure sign that he had lost the upper hand. From being a potential match-winner in the first half he became a frustrated figure on the left wing in the second as Brian Mullen played a bit deeper to help Weibel out.
Verbal97 - Speaking of Scotland's future, has anyone heard anything recently about this McCarthy kid that supposedly some teams were after this past summer?
Bobby – Well if it is James McCarthy of Hamilton Accies (I think I wrote a bit about them a few weeks ago) then it is a case of The Republic of Ireland’s future rather than Scotland. He qualifies for the Republic and has already played for the Republic at age group levels. From what I am told he continues to impress (a 17-year-old I believe) and Hamilton are currently sitting at the top of the Scottish First Division. Under manager Billy Reid Hamilton have a number of good young players who are making an impression.
RINGO – 1. Is this the worst "transfer" of recent times? Steve Bruce to Wigan for 3m pounds! 2. Will McLeish still be in charge when WC qualifying comes round? Will he be able to resist when a premier league club comes calling? Birmingham perhaps?
Bobby – 1. If they stay up – no. But will they stay up? I find it difficult to fathom – mediocre manager who has received outstanding support from his board and has never produced anything except mediocre results. 2. I hope so but there is the temptation of big money in the Premiership. I would hope however, that Scotland would win out over Birmingham particularly given their current “take-over” situation.
oldcoach - Interesting interview with Don Garber. I have never been much for the hipster marketing that he subscribes to but it is hard to deny the business success that MLS has seen during his tenure. If you project out 10 to 15 years, where do you think MLS will be?
Bobby – Ten to fifteen years from now – a league of24 teams that is so solid that nobody questions it. Involvement is multiple club competitions both domestic and regionally. No articles that start “Soccer is really growing in America. In Europe and South America it has a following like baseball or NFL” or similar rubbish.
A steady stream of players coming through with the best players still heading to big teams in Europe (and hopefully to South America and Mexico). From a Canadian point of view four of the twenty four teams north of the border.
Craigy_f – 1. Would you want Usmanov as an owner of a club you supported? 2. What next for Scotland? A new manager or stick with the current set up for 2010 qualification. 3. How much would Dixie Dean be worth in today's money - say in the summer of 28 after he bagged the 60 goals. 4. Do you think Bruce is right to leave to try and resurrect a 'dead horse’? 5. Who do you think will try to finish second (in euro 08 qualifying) and how will they do it? Or have they already done it?
Bobby – 1. I think it would disappointing for any team to have someone like that own a club but it seems that as far as many fans are concerned as long as the new owner spends money and the team wins then an owner’s background does not come into it.
2. Stick with it, although the expectations need to be controlled. A good Euro campaign does not entitle a team to place in South Africa in three years. \
3. I think all that can be said is that his price would be a record one no matter the era.
4. I think Bruce’s move shows his lack of faith in his own ability. He’s leaving Birmingham a bit early because his contract is not being renewed and instead he has opted for a long term deal with a side that has a big relegation fight on its hands. A more confident manager would have ridden out the Birmingham situation confident that if his team performed well there would be no shortage of clubs lining up to sign him if Birmingham didn’t.
5. It looks so tight that a number of teams still have a chance to get what many expect to be the one remaining top seeded position. I’m not sure that the situation can be as easily managed as it sounds and even then you still run the risk of being seeded two and drawing a difficult group. I’m looking at the likely 16 qualifiers and even the teams likely to be seeded fourth are going to be very tough.
Wyofc - Do you think after next year the league will comment that the Designated Player is working so well that they will grant all teams yet another DP slot? Allowing David Beckham and Landon Donavan to play on the same team and be the most marketable team worldwide for MLS and becoming the face for MLS.
Bobby – If that decision is made then is going to have to be for the better of the league as a whole not one team – otherwise it will just backfire. The last time I checked they were playing on the same team this season.
With due respect to Landon Donovan, whether or not he plays for the Galaxy or not isn’t really a concern for football fans worldwide. The vast majority don’t care. I think you are vastly overestimating the world’s view of him. And there interest in MLS for that matter. MLS needs to continue to grow in North America – thinking worldwide is getting way ahead of themselves.
Getz76 - Nice broadcast last night as usual. Any truth to getting you on-air for Wednesday night? It will give me something to watch while the turkey is in the brine. What does everyone think of McClaren's decision to go with Robinson in goal? I still think there are at least three healthy England keepers in better form (James, Green, Carson). Why did he bother starting Carson in the friendly, then? I know it was not exactly a stiff test versus Austria, but it seems like the man can deal with a cross!
Bobby – Thank you but I will not be on the FSR tomorrow night. As for the goalkeeping situation it sounds as if Scott Carson will be starting.
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites.
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